is released in terms of your movements, something like that. so i thought that it was like the thought providing on sense. how much with trick do you think impulse is right now to us? it seems to be spreading more easily via the story on talk to how does era the although i'm, adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i would just say, or you'll reach and look at the world of business. and they cannot make this rich, the us dollar has been on our role, but for how much longer we look at why the green back of strength and effective spelled trouble for the rest of the world. donald trump's terrorist threats could help decide brittany's trade future. so should the u. k. pick sides between the us and europe, or kind of the strike deals with folks i lies an engine easy. i wants to become

a high income nation by 2045, but it's middle class is shrinking. so what can help showing up the incomes of millions of into these young people donald trump will soon be back in the top job of the us dollar has risen on the back of his presidential election. victory had got a lot stronger the strongest of the year. days off, the trump was elected the riley last week on the school. the strength of the american economy in comparison to its will. p is known as american economic exceptionalism. and it makes it cheaper for many americans shop us to buy foreign goods and to travel abroad. but a strong dollar doesn't lift old boats. companies but export products may become less competitive at the us deficit. met may wiping. that's a problem for trump. who has often said that he prefers a week of dollar the greenbacks wise could also create a lot of pain for the rest of the world. as veronica pedroza reports, donald trump

a says a weaker exchange rate to support the growth of us exports and to help reduce the countries trade deficit. but since winning the us presidential election, the dollar has skyrocketed mostly in anticipation of his policies to impose paris on imports. and texas, trump is now for um for growth policy. so i think that's why the market has been reacting positively because i'm to provo. yeah. piece for growth, so it would stimulate economic growth. however, having said that, you know, target of policy, we also grant inflationary expectation to it because you have steve and i think the economy a strong dollar makes it cheaper for americans. didn't see a list of by foreign goods. i'm to travel abroad. but for us companies, it means that our exports become more expensive and less competitive in the global market. and for other countries dependent on trade with the us,

they of bracing themselves for the effects of higher costs and the potential economic slowdown. up carolina to me, i get it to him in. so, given that we now have an anticipated policy direction or something, even before the trump administration has fully launched, the international markets have already begun responding to the so please monitor the markets carefully advocate comprehensively. trump once a week dollar. but his policies might have the opposite effect, which would not certainly impact the west, but the entire global economy. veronica pedroza al jazeera, the counting the cost, the confidence expected to be hit hottest by the effects of a stronger dollar is africa when 9 countries are in debt distress, meaning that they comp or pay that loans. many of these loans must be paid in dollars, and a stronger dollar makes them more expensive. this forces countries to spend less on things like health care, education, and infrastructure. the rising dollar also increases the cost of imports. this can

cause inflation to rise in countries already struggling. for example, substitute balance inflation rate is 107 percent to bob with is over 50 percent times yearly. many african economies depends on exporting commodities like oil, gold and culpa. these are all priced in dollars in a stronger dollar makes these goods more expensive for consumers globally, eventually reducing the demand and ultimately shrinking export revenues. this could be a major issue for countries like by jerry up, south africa and zambia for joining us, not for london is my outline, c i o office a capital markets really good to have you with us. why would a donald trump presidential victory have strengthened the dollar so significantly paid for? i mean that i think it was very much given that some of the rent donald from the president elect, someone who will take the office daughter is going to become more strong yet because he is very much pro dollar. and then he's going to make show that daughter

is gonna remain the dominant culture and say, now as you've mentioned a year, obviously strong, the daughter is a major, had been for a number of emerging countries. uh, the one that you've mentioned. however, there is a bit of a cab yet to that, and that is, but if you are looking at for advice is yes daughter will become stronger. but then of, of course, throughout the process where we could look at the dollar become a bit more because as well, which i will discuss in the later part. but 1st that's will pass on the commodity perspective. and especially for my old perspective, which even when the president elect, we'll take the all states what we are anticipating. we enter dissipating nor oil prices. we are anticipating or in the process to go down to $2040.00 or perhaps below $40.00. why? because his policy is going to be very simple, grill baby trail, and that is what american oil companies are going to do. so that means we kinda

have an abundance supply on the market. now that sort shift back to your conversation about stronger dollar boot. we see a much stronger dollar or why the stronger dollar it has happened. the reason is, of course, what the federal reserve is. uh, but it how, how the factors, every time it gets monetary policy in relation to economic data. now the yes of course, trump, on one time he's very much pro daughter. he was, the daughter should remain strong, but at the same time, he's also an individual or chevy say, and elected president for best on life, interest rates are remain strong for longer period of time. so there is this element, there is this concern among the investors and traitors that when president elect will take the office, he will inset more pressure on the federal reserves to cut the interest rates more rapidly. so what does that entail that entails the current grant,

which everyone has informed me that body date and emerging market may no longer be that much of a significant, correct for them? in fact, but could be looking at a situation where we have a weaker dollar and also a lower commodity prices. i, i just wanna pick you up on something you said they use. the trump is in favor of a strong adult that he's made it clear in the past that he would prefer the dollar to be weak up all the lessons for the incoming trump administration from his 1st of all right. the dollars strengthens when he was 1st elected in 2016 a year later. if this was something like 10 percent low of these harris, inheriting a very different economy this time round isn't a and i think trump is very lucky in terms of inhabiting the economy. because when he can haze episode number one, he came from a bama administration. right. so it was so he and how to take that economy, which cooperation was coming from a bomb administration economy. it wasn't a very strong footing. so trump had that plenty of. ready wind and times off of

these policies and the economy performed brand new out. now in the after season to chevy safe off trump uh, administration. again, he's been incredibly lucky from that particular perspective. why? because we are looking at a situation from the monetary policy standpoint, from the federal reserve standpoint, where the federal reserve is causing the interest rate. and we all know one thing for sure. and then history tells us over and over and over again, then market gloves, dogfish right, meaning sprint of interest rates are cutting when monetary policy is actually more on the topic side. so i think that is what we're going to see in the, in the season to of comp administration as well. so this, this administration is going to have a lot more experience on web ex, the, what they did in the end of season one, either or when trump was back in the office and use that experience as a leverage to perform and do batch of steps. but at least that is what is the anticipated among be in restaurant for benefit?

could you foresee a situation where the dollar weekends against the euro, the pound, the end significantly below parity, perhaps even not below prior to that is that's not a base case scenario or among the major banks that's on the wall street that we can see below priority below, prodigy or the stress of that happens during the bush administration brand, we lessing, financial process. secondly, fiction, darmesh, monetary policy, significant interest re pods. now even though we are anticipating adopters, monetary policy, meaning a number of in so spread caught some going into the next couple of years. but no one is going to expect for that number or the power to take place. there is a possibility that we could perhaps see in terms of the euro by in terms of styling or other major g time currencies. i think i especially in, in, in, in terms of fast. i mean, i don't think we're going to get that until unless,

of course, that you get decides to have a more self inflicted injuries, like the one they have before i. e for exits. you couldn't foresee a situation then where a trunk trouble buy out about a dollar that's simply too strong for his liking, introduced to something like the plaza accord. we saw in the reagan administration where the, the, the dollar was effectively be valued in coordination with, with the, with allies. while about like i'm, i'm glad that you brought those particular points on their very interesting point. bought a game the is the, the best case scenario a is going to be what the federal reserve or the monetary policy is really going to be a half a day in commerce expressions going to instead on the federal reserve chairman and is the federal reserve is going to have its own choice of making the interest. right. so pretty slow. absolutely not the basic, if somebody among many investors or even in the options market,

i am really got to talk to your buddy. thanks. event for being with us. push it back. a frequent must choose between the european union socialist model and the american free market. that's the amount of a top economic adviser to president elect. donald trump, the ultimate and made and media interviews comes with an incentive. stephen mall said that if the u. k. sides with his nation that be more willing to send the trumpet ministration to find a trade deal between the 2 allies, critics. so, so that most comment is a statement i, the ology of into fee is impertinence, political affairs, the governor of the bank of england. andrew bailey has one, do you take government against picking sides but is that you have a really cool between 2 economic levels or does it have all the choices? well, that potentially depends on what's at stake. the u. k. might face high attacks on exports to the us if it chooses to stay close to to europe. on the campaign trail, donald trump instructions ladies of up to 20 percent on all american imports,

with additional types of 60 percent, to 100 percent on goods bought from china. trade talks between the u. k and the u. s. also hanging in the balance, they've long story because of disagreements of agriculture or standards, including concerns over the import of chlorinated chicken, a whole loan treated beef into britain bought the bank of england has urged breakfast, prime minister kissed on the step up ties with the you saying that the you case exit from the block has weighed on the nation's economy. now in trade, its numbers the matter calm us between the u. k and europe is 3 times larger, the between the u. k. and the us taking as a block, the u is the you case, largest overall trade post and accounting for 43 percent of trade. while the us is britain, the single largest trade pump that with more than $388000000000.00 worth of goods and services. this year, the u. k. could face the almost $28000000000.00 hit to its exports. if trump

imposes a blanket 20 percent tariff on all imports, according to new analysis by the university of sussex is to us for inclusive trade policy. well, research as of aston university in england, estimated the between 20212023 annual u. k. exports of goods to the you was 17 percent low of them. they would have been had brakes that never happened. joining us from colchester in the u. k as how it read. he's the director of land, but economics and the full chief economist at the institute for public policy research, good time, you with this? how does the okay really have to make this choice between the us or the yours, the governor of the bank of england, right. what he said, the u. k. should just continue trading with everyone. has it always done? well, i think the, the, you type will continue to try it with both blocks. the us and the you. i think what might happen is that as you've said, the trumpet ministration may try to pick for you. kyle, is it what by offering a preference? who do i think it would be dangerous to sign up for that because i think it might

affect the, the, you kind of like you probably relationship via you, which is power biggest trading brock and allow you to remain started. so i think it would be dangerous to kind of type that bite. well for the you guys type that bite from the us, but it has been a lot a to insist on opening up. so markets such as a, uh, you know, core and i to check in full months i'd be for in the agriculture set do as much as you do taking, james, just don't want to say that happened inside of the you take off numbers on it. so very important for homework to proceed down that road. okay. as you say, britain would always be the junior pop. now, given the size of the us economy in any trade deal is it, is, it really was because while i'm, you mentioned the issue of, you know, a whole bunch of different chlorinated chicken with the british public stand for it . i think by ready wouldn't stand for it. well, predict the british populate, wouldn't stand for, i mean, paul went off to follow the site. the really opposed to based kind of products

answering the brits you smoke, you know, so i thought that do you type foaming say, what's done for the i'm the you take government's currently in a kind of dispute with the uh, the british traumas. if it changes to inheritance tax, which the following will be, is kind of exempt. your i took this because most problems in the u. k. one, the paying inheritance tax, even though it's been published on the high, on not very big farms bought the monument is probably the worst possible time for the british government to get into a dispute with the side, an agricultural sector. and so i think it's, i think it's very unlikely that case salma and the kind of government will take up the us on the, on that sort of preferential tradeoff. or even if it was actually all they do, obviously we don't know yet what the jump administration will actually do. so which would cost the u. k. economy more failing to address the gaps caused by briggs. it's all the 20 percent tariffs,

the trump is threatening on all goods imported into the us. what i would say that i would say is that the u. k. needs a christ trading relationship with the you move in. it needs a prospect trading relationship with the us. and so, i mean, even if we, even if we went along with some of the us will trump was suggesting, trump is a very kind of, i'm capricious and why would call a character very difficult to 2nd guess. so this policy is probably gonna lead to significant costs for the us economy, probably boost inflation in the us. so we might find the end of the, the is the, the us economy is currently doing back of the year. incentive guys to j. d paid off through a company is a truck that might no longer be the type. so the, the might begin to lock a much better option for the type. and obviously we have breaks it, which is a big kind of case of shooting ourselves in the foot while stuff i think with the out to be rejoined the you, any time. so we kind of at least push for and more

a close to trading relationship with the you are not like nice destiny. what you guys you said i wanted to ask you about. that is, if trump impose us these 20 percent in port tires and all goods coming from the you, to what extent does the you need trade with, with britain, to the extent that they possibly will give birth more favorable trading conditions? well, we might get more more uh try uh 5, we'll try and can just put by the list. gonna come with significant strings attached. if we get a thing of that nature and i think it would probably be in the you guys best interest to reject that. and instead push close to trading links with the with the a you, which is a rate the, a much bigger trading partner for the u. k than the us is. so i will probably end up getting 20 percent times across the board for, for by few k u. k. companies starting into the us and the u companies selling for

us. but we might be able to offset that. we'd pay the trading arrangements with the because the brake seat we built in 20192020 was a pretty how it breaks it out. you know, all trading sites. this would be the use of that. right. right now we should really . ready be looking to improve that really hope to talk to you, how it on cutting the cost manufacturing data being with us. thanks very much. nice to be much for the return of donald trump is also expected to reshape relations between washington and china. as you heard, badging could face up to 60 percent of tariffs on it exports to the us, but a chinese bank, mega port and peru could create new routes that will bypass north america entirely . the project is part of china is pushed to increase its influence in less than america traditionally seen as the us back yard. but last week, the presidents of peru in china integrated the 3 and a half $1000000000.00 china type port, which is intended to boost trade in the asia pacific region through is hoping the

joint venture will transform it into the largest trading help in south america. a surrogate reports a one smooth fishing village has been transformed into a mega pool. see, see the 3 and a half $1000000000.00 private venture between china improve is the start of the new global trade partnership. it's one that peruse lita who will transform the country well. she has shown that as a preview will be key in the maritime roots of global trade, which will turn into more investments, more trade and development for country. the pulse construction is positive. china is wide of belgium road initiative. we're not only witnessing the solid and successful joint implementation of the belt and road initiative in peru, but also the birth of a new land and maritime cord, or between asia and latin america. experts say many countries in the global south sea china as the most favorable trading partner, then the us for your,

at the 4 countries in a lot in american south america that depend so heavily on exports the defense so heavily on placing our goods in the world market and it seems to me that a, china's role in promoting free trade and then promoting will deduct their lives and is extremely important. and the pulse is expected to handle 1000000 containers in its foster corporations and reduce travel time between lots in america and asia. by nearly 2 weeks, it's something that is about a local peruvian entrepreneur to exports of toys to china, says will benefit hop business. we're through, we're very excited that the chinese government this, this investment improve, i think, to add china believe in the lives and what we have the polls is expected to generate around 2000 new jobs by next year. but chime causes may doubts that the economic

rewards will trickle down to benefit the in tall community, lanita stuff with thing that ford's focus is in the park. but we have a sitting next street with many needs. some places don't even have drinking water and sewage that is extreme poverty under the 0 public investment it remains unclear how much of the incoming investment would impact the lives of the $60000.00 people living in shanghai. but for now, the city is celebrating, at least the prospect of change, sorry, go out to 0. the counting the cost us in recent decades, indonesia has been something of a success story recording rapid growth rates and reducing extreme poverty. the southeast asian nation is trying to build on that to become a high income country. within the next 21 years. spending by the nation's middle cost plays a crucial role in driving the economic growth. but the number of indonesians would

fall into that social group is declining. more than 10000000 people have slipped out of it since 2019. the government is now under pressure to increase the incomes if it wants to scale off its economy. research has found the purchasing power of the middle class and aspiring middle class in indonesia has been decreasing over the past 5 years with a rising cost of living, millions of inter, easy and so now force to spend more on food and basic needs. the problem is a challenge for presidents per below. so bianco who has pledged to achieve g d p growth of 8 percent of the eliminate policy before this middle class? well, there's no universal definition of what is middle class or how it should be measured . it usually refers to a group of people who are neither very rich nor very pull by world bank definition that economically secure, which means they have enough income to cover basic needs and some extra money to spend on luxuries, such as vacations on hobbies,

based on the institutions criteria the end of easy and government pacifies. those who spend between $132.00 to $643.00 a month. as middle class, the spending accounts for nearly 40 percent of private consumption, i'm over 80 percent. if combined with the aspiring middle class who spend between $57.00 and $132.00 a month. joining us from chicago in indonesia is tobias pacific. he's the managing director and co founder of our stock lease consults and full of senior research at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us to buys. why is it an easy is middle class declining? thanks for having the adrian. uh yes, that's a i think a major report recently published by the in any agents, the physical agency sounding that a lot of the declining middle class in general. the problem is a bit multi faceted, for one is actually as i think your report mentioned before, the finding the middle class has been quite a challenging issue. what do they find?

what really is the middle class, for example, the indonesian so this 6 uses expenditure rather than income. so that's what that being said, being definitions, having a lot of great area, i think, and it's not going to be in the past 5 years. but in the past 10 years, there has been some challenges in indigo in middle class. i think a lot of people are loving the in the growing indonesia middle class from the 2019 what bank report. but it seems that on i think there's a lot of economic policies in addition to also the impact of the club at 19 pen damaged the ex lease. or it use a lot of the income of the past with the not a, not so much income per past due by the expenditure, the past that the, and also rising cost within the indonesian middle class and other issues. yes. so what does be that easy and government need to do to fix this? for one is i thing as a targeted subsidies is one of the biggest issues. the indonesian government has

actually a tried its best, but according again to the numbers, if it's something that becomes very complicated, for example, the floor uh for a middle strong middle class, a segment which is the cost 70 percent. now that has reduced by $10000000.00 as a, as a $125.00 or $130.00. and that number is actually the benchmark for the government to decide whether someone or an eta citizen can access subsidies. for example, subsidies for their security education university or other subsidies. and often people with a income above $12530.00, got us dollars cannot access those subsidies. all of that income is not, it's not very high, especially considering the expenditure. probably a gets the same. oh see, they basically take all their competitors out of their income. so how long will it

take to turn this situation on? how long before people begin to feel better off? yeah, i think that's a, that's a 1000000 dollar question. of course, indonesia is not necessarily in the, in a completely batch. if the economy is growing, even after dependent may happen, the economy grows again, gets close to 5 percent. but i think the incoming government trouble government will be very crucial and, and what kind of policies they're doing. but at this point, we are still a little bit worried because a lot of the signature projects on board presidents, the ex president of what we go to, and the current president bravo. and the 3 lines program and the new capital, the ex president, will actually be a fiscal burden towards the indonesian government and in order to actually grow the economy effectively. so i'm hoping that the incoming government will recalculate and re rethink a lot of this policy is especially as fiscal policies,

which is also now a big issue in indonesia. the rising of the fact that you add a tax to 12 percent and beginning january 2025. now it's already getting a lot of a rejection from society because it has a multiplier effect. then under the middle class of spending capacity device has been really good still to i'm counting the cost manufacture date for being with us . thank you. thanks for having. that's our show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen, i'm at a finnegan on x. try to remember to use the hash tag a c t c. or you can drop us a line counting the cost of our 0. don't net is our email address as always, this print team of you online. and obviously the dot com slash ctc that takes you straight to the page and the, you'll find individual reports links even into additions for you to capture. that's it for this edition of counting the cost on a tree instead of going from the team here. and so how, thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is the

in depth analysis of the day sidelines is trumps. when coming at the worst possible times a year informed opinions saw that the look system was essentially designed with americans in my critical district. we're seeing a mass mortality event, the likes of which we have not seen for, for to get inside story. question is now all these allies willing to stand by has full bono, jesse around the bobbies government to declare the state of disaster. millions of people are just in need of food. the city is running out of walton. this isn't bobby's west. droughts indicates this is a bull hole in the community, one of many. when i do this for a couple of times, you look over, they usually want to comes out, but it's dry. there's nothing you know,

my family lawyer says the season is bad. the judge is terrible to which i, shortages are with the city council will continue limiting supplies to conserve water. no matter probably more, you must wait a few more days before she receives. so we can us some in arabic, steadfast 4 and 5 years before israel occupied the west, pine author has spent a lifetime resiliency and peace for the resisting the occupation of the confines, his life and the roads, his line witness fellows, 25 years of his family's unwavering coverage of humanity, the face of sexual colonialism, routed in the west on a jersey to the colleges here with the

. ready the household is radio strikes head central babe ruth, at least 11 people are killed and 23 wounded. the one sent me say that this is i'll do 0 live from dell hall. so coming up, palestinians targeted in garza, at least 9 team killed sauce wounded up to come all drawn hospital age groups. one sedan is just months away from nationwide, simon. tens of millions of people are at risk. and no way near enough. i.