the the . ringback the fucking sounds, capital is sealed on security forces have been deployed to stop and run, come support us from marching into islamic that demanding the former prime minister, released from jail and the government residing cool. this leads to more political instability. bits is inside, store the

hello. welcome to the program. i'm but it's tens of thousands of people have reached the outskirts of pakistan. this capital is what i'm about. and what he's looking like the biggest protest, much since february's disputed election vote for the packaged on muslim league unpackaged on people's policy to palate. but in wrong caused support to say the vote was stolen from that policy, the p t. i. and that the district has been manipulated to keep that leader out to politics. con has been in jail since may convicted of corruption. he says the government and the establishment, a euphemism for the powerful security forces. want him to remain behind boss p t i support is a demanding comm, been released and the government resign. so what might happen next. com? pakistan is government survive. co dot com be freed. we'll look at the issues in a moment. but 1st, this report from vincent model is love about it. the city under locked down

the roads are closed. internet is restricted and police are out in force. they've promised to response with lead to any demonstrations by supporters of jail form or prime minister in wrong cause. you don't want to do a good job. the entire central district is being monitored by his lemme bad police of any protest is come, that'll be a rest of the media or a gone. but i just saw hundreds of con, supporters of already been arrested, but they remain undeterred. they want their leader out of jail and the current government out of office, tens of thousands of come from across the country and they want their voices to be heard. cause a lot of them are positive, god's willing. we will stay on the streets and continue the struggle for our rights until the return of our rights of the people of pakistan. in 2022 in wrong commons removed his prime minister in a new confidence about since then. he's been charged and jailed over dozens of criminal cases, many of which have resulted in acquittal con supporters that his rivals are webinar

using the justice system to keep them out of power. is to wreak and soft party the p t. i was banned from contesting the elections, so as little as round as independence combines, they won the most seats, no power. he won a majority. however, resulting a coalition government and more protests on the streets of his mom about many long for stability and return to normality. no set of lights at the body, but these regular protests are not only destroying our economy, but are making our country situation unstable, which is not a favor to our country at all. we will impact the sounds top political leaders to sit down and find solutions to these problems. the situation is very serious. this should not happen, but it is impacting our country's economic situation. they should be political stability in the country. the only option is that these policies should go for elections. there was a conflict between the government and the opposition,

which is having a negative impact on our country. and it should be results. the buffer now pockets dogs political giants appear to be deadlocks. and wrong con supporters are determined to get them out of jail and back in power. his opponents and the governing coalition wants him out of office and out of politics permanently. vince and monahan, l to zira for inside story. the process calm is pakistan. stacy's many challenges come all high. the reports problem is i'm about on some of them, the thousands of protest guys of a moran con, the former prime minister, who then j, a marching on its normal bod and getting ever closer. now to stop them. your daughter days have requisition the services of the militia that your see behind me marching towards me, backed up by the rain judge, who are all still going to be using. right? yeah. and charge guns to stop doors projectors from coming into

a plumber. but they're also backed by tens of thousands of policemen being brought in from other provinces to beef up focused on the square of fame it protest, right, new exaggeration, coordinated have come to the worst time in the country as seen a cycle of while and in the part of 2 in our district along the avalon border, where sick dead in groups had been fighting each other in a mounting deck door. also the fact that the country they're going to make is covering the buckets on the government, they're gonna be allowed from the i a man and daily life is i know it said to be in hundreds of millions of dollars because the transport system, daily communication, mobile services, internet services have been blocked and so have many of the highway leading to his lama, but which of course is leading to a large then revenue for transport uh, score is that code and the country is under what you'll see. now the important

thing will be how the government said to this particular problem. people at large are saying that there should be a political solution to a political problem. and that the use of force may exacerbate an already complicated situation. that is come on either in the summer, but for the inside story. the satellite spring in august. joining us from is lama bod, is a z, my cima, political economy specialist, and founding director of the pakistani think tank. the so consulting and washington dc is how some of the practice done fellow at the woodrow wilson center. he previously worked in both a practice on a government on the private sector, focusing on national security on strategic policy. in san francisco is pod home in a visiting scholar at the center of international security and cooperation at stanford university. welcome to all of you. i'll begin with you. find out if i may,

do we send this to you since the beginning of the end game impact is done for this coalition government it's difficult to say at this point in time um, august on is unfortunately no stranger to crisis. and the political turmoil that we're seeing at the moment is the extension of a crisis that began in 2022. when private industry, i'm ron khan, was removed from power through a vote of no confidence. sands has been incarcerated with a number of criminal charges against him, most of which he says are politically motivated. but essentially what we're seeing is a face off between a popular politician, arguably the most popular politician and consequential politician in buckets done right now. and a military establishment that is in den on trying to ensure some

degree of both political and economic stability which has eluded, focused on for several years. the problem of at the moment seems to be that both in ronald fund and the military establishment have very hardened positions. and it doesn't seem as if either side of it is, is willing to sort of compromise or, or soften its positions to a point where a solution could be reached in this garden of crisis and rocks on has called on his supporters to march on his loan. rupe, and suggest that the sort of mass mobilization bed in wrong song had intended, perhaps, hasn't materialized. but it's also important to consider the obstacles that iraq's on supporters faced both in terms of breasts and detentions, and the crap down on the bpi active as being the parking lot iraq sunroof.

okay, well how some we are hearing there. there are tens of thousands of people on the outskirts of his lama, but is not enough to dislodge this government to force so full somebody's hum. i mean, as, as the headset, i think it's barely to say what the outcome would be. i think it will depend largely on how sustainable this product is going to be. we should remember that only a month or so ago, abroad console, intestines led by the chief minister. okay. but uh, i mean the pool also came to us not on board with almost the same demand for release of nonsense, but they went on sustainable as soon as they reached this level. but they had to leave the capital of the police crackdown on them in a major way. so we still have to see how this is going to band out there right now at the outskirts of the capitals. and there is a heavy deployment of police, both from a sound, but these ranges and police from outside, from other provinces,

which have been bought into a sound. but so we have to see the increments are unprecedented. i must say, that'd be administration and assigned by the federal government has made unprecedented arrangements this time. we've not seen such a large scale locked down. they have been contained as on all major highways have been locked. um the internet has been slowed down. and so we still have to see how this is going to find out. i think the outcome would depend largely on whether the buddhist us been able to be able to reach us all about and then sustain for a day or 2. i think that could fall assigned to the government to negotiate a theme or off to with, i guess the all hedging the bet split the, the military's have to essentially locked themselves in the capital. have them, they do do sense, any tension there. and as i'm about, it is tension all over the country, vainly afar. then a husband raised extremely burden and point. i think it's really important to

remember that not only have b t i lead by around con, marched on a slower, but before but the 1st march was 10 years ago. now they were able to sustain that launch for a really long time. it was months and months and perhaps we did that precedent and expect that they would not be able to effect the, those kind of results unless they can achieve that kind of a for attracted, sustained protest in the city. what i think we shouldn't underestimate is that mr. con has been able to successfully mobilize protests, does his body walk us and his body supporters at least again and again inside goals . and that has led to this, you know, sort of attracted conflict bunch bunk to a, to buy the cycles of protest. and that mister con has been able to do this with liquor to no cost to his popularity. on the other hand, um,

i think i'm on head this report. uh, we use the word siege. the state has in fact, besieged itself in this long about hudson's right. the containers. the container presents the restrictions on mobility. uh, the restrictions on connectivity are happening at an unprecedented scale. and the difference is that we all, perhaps as all of this morning, realizing that we may be looking at a week or so of this now week of or so of these kind of a shut down in this loan about at least the means that, you know, the maintenance critical boss to the business uh um, to the business of government, to the business of the private sector to children going to school. and these are the, these are being born largely by a nation that's suffering huge losses under the bug is not that cannot make prizes

anyway. so there are costs to bubble perception as well as the there are a, the have been the protest before we have seen this before and pakistan, but surely now it's getting much more seriously. economy particularly, isn't a terrible mess. the government has to go once more money from the i am actually go about $3000000000.00 schultz. i'm load, it wants to know the 6000000000 now is a different this time in terms of the protests and the consequences the, the kinetic situation isn't great and boxed on. um, it's perhaps not as precarious as it was uh several months ago. and the approval of the new i am a funding program, and then the slight upgrade of the sovereign guided reading of the country has, in some ways helped the buckets done by this time eco economy in terms of its outlook. having said that, um, i don't think we're out of the woods yet. and for the political establishment,

this kind of political instability is only likely to compound the risks, to the economy. as well as the impression off insolvency, which the military establishment and the govern government has pride very hard to send off of iran con strategy right now is essentially that of the gorilla insurgent he doesn't necessarily have to show that he has, he's able to rodney huge crowds, but he simply means to show that the, the stablish mind and the current government is unpopular and doesn't enjoy the mass support of the country to the point where governance is actually difficult. and i think he's able to do that quite effectively, even though he's behind bars of the fact that he's in jail and makes him immensely popular. i think it's important to remember that uh, 2 thirds of pocket stones population are turnkey,

under the age of 30. many of these young people are either unemployed, don't have good economic prospect and see in m, ron assigned um, you know, the as british or the hopes or a political future that will sort of digs, digs on board of their, their aspirations. okay. so how something there is a huge economic pressure on the government is another one estimate. i got was off a $1000000000.00. it's to the economy the moment with the roads blocks and the trains not running it surely and no sustainable. i agree. it's on sustainable, especially during the last 2 years, the funding, he has had some success in terms of stabilizing, and he's on some macro economic fundamentals, economic security, and the state of the funding me has been a big concern for the establishment for the ruling elite and docusign and for the international community. and so in that sense, i think continuous, it also to something that i'd like to bet on on the government. i'm and forced to

handle the establishment to move forward and find the political solution to the gun in crisis. again, i think the fundamental point here is that you know what the nonsense, continuous mobilizations again and again have demonstrated is that pakistan's politics in many ways are, you know, transforming because of the room to budge. as 400 was mentioning because of the social media, people are accessing alternate sources of information. the majority of young people in buckets on they have different aspirations. and i think in the long term in the medium to long term that needs to be a reset of politics and bucket start. and we really have to figure out a way of moving forward where we're going to be able to deal with this stuff. but i mean issue a split into instability and frankly, dealing with the question of how we can transition from one government to another without entering into these perpetual phases of, of crisis us. i think the major issue right now is whether they will be

a political solution. the team demands put forward by non assignment as parties. i think those are difficult to model for any government defense and particularly related to the you know, the amendments that recently passed the 26th amendment and the question of holding new elections, which was essentially mean that the government would have to go. and so, since these are such large the minds, it has to be a major way of finding a box forward for which is a win win box. whole works of both the government and forks. fundamental con, uh, i think. okay, so the stability is essential because back to son is dealing with many challenges. all right, we still haven't talked about that. it isn't. i mean, in the last week alone, yes, but a 100 guys would use in into a province isn't boxed on it is frankly a very worthy concern for many of us. well, i mean, that doesn't just focus on faces. we really have to move forward and find this in

the past. we'll come back to the security situation shortly. but as even a building on something else has something with say is, is there a problem with the legitimacy of which about shareef administration is built on shaky foundations because of the come come contested election back in february. it's very difficult for them is need to remain legitimate. i mean, i think there is a broader legitimacy crisis of the boxes. tons, govern situation is in a way, a continuation of an order of progress on the situation. if you go back to work for hud said military dispensations do frequently come in to provide the sort of a time frame of stability in economic policy to stabilize the metro economic fundamentals. whenever bug as done is in a nickel nomic crisis, those are, you know, again, be we had these pages of punctuated military rules that have

a directory it off with democracy, but they do stabilize the macro economic fundamentals for a time being. however, at the moment, not only as box sounds, economic situation extremely dire. there has been a further loss uh, in how people perceive various the doctors. and it's not just she bought to these government. the problem is that we did have an election that the people up august on, in spite of many, many challenges participated in. and those election results have been, you know, not only perceived as misreported, manipulated. they've cost, you know, that is in the cloud over this administration. that this administration has not been able to recover from. and while the macro economic fundamentals have stabilized to some degree and we're seeing an arresting of some of the negative trends, the public have yet to be the beneficiary of any of that. in fact,

in they seem to be, did, mr. con, has become the beneficiary of logic public discontent. because the process, the persecution of his political party has been perceived as unfair. because the of the, the way the election was conducted has been perceived as on fed. and again, there is a larger grievance around the economy, a wrong taxation around the unfair distribution of taxation. so there's a large wave of public sympathy that supporting this. that said, people absolutely do not want to see violence. people absolutely don't want, this is to engage in violence. and this unfortunately is a trajectory that we seem to be on, on something has to diffuse this. all right? so far it is that a way that income could potentially fix or repack his relationship with the military establishments that might then lead to a for a way to him to get out of jail. um, you know,

i think i think we'd have to sort of wait and see um as i mentioned before, both them are on han and the military seem to be hemmed in very much too hard line max and with his positions. one possible solution i think would be for it. i think them and the preferred solution for the military would be to perhaps release him wrong, but perhaps him wrong. have him wrong son. as the leader of the opposition returned to parliament and have the government continue, it's term of some sort of political reconciliation might be achieved that way. but again, in wrong times, demands that the government go to the 26th amendment that was recently bought that has significant good deal to deal with the powers of disappeared. traditionally, i think would be very difficult for either the military establishment or the, the sitting government to accept right now. i'm all not due on the 26th amendment

has about week and the independence of park has done this to dish retail. i think it's, i think there's several questions that it has raised about the, about the traditionally and uh we still have to see how it will function. i don't think that it's an ideal situation. uh, there are questions about creating a, i mean it's much better than what was originally the draft that was originally presented and they would negotiate should have been various political, political actors. and so the amendment that came in that sense was much better than the one that was originally proposed. we still have to see the outcome of this. but critics, uh, particularly those belonging to him right? besides bodies uh, seeing that the informs introduce you to are actually targeting his body and image on son and the ensuring that you know the cases of our election is regularities.

lots come up and distributed traditionally and when they do come to be added uh, put in front of us selected by those. i think those questions remain. we still have to see, we haven't seen any judgments from the new, you know, across the confront benches that were created. so we still have to see how this bands out. but in any case, i think the question larger question here is that given all the changes that are happening in buckets on a and the lack of stability that we're seeing is the country moving forward. and i think many of us have concerns that, you know, we are stuck in a policy, but alice's of these continuous protests are costing be calling me. um they're, they're getting a negative environment internationally. i mean, today when the boat, this is happening, the president of battles is on a state visit to buck this time. and this is not a good look far, far up sort of country, the size of bikers that so for us to be able to move forward and, and deal with some of our challenges. i think the needs to be some,

some of the reconciliations and for the discussion to move forward. if i have a package done, a nuclear power do, it's neighbors and allies get nervous when they see the sort of instability. it's your particular area of interest for you um, you know, any kind of instability, of course, has, has implications that extend far beyond just domestic politics. so having said that, i think um, you know, boxed on is currently locked into a position where uh, the economy is not doing frankly too well. and boxed on regional relationships are sort of also on auto cruise or auto pilot. um, if you will, um both relations with india and, and neighboring neighboring of honest on are far from ideal um,

focused on relationship with china. all scores is very much right. turnkey seems for the prism off. so yeah, it's been on me cooperation and the china buck is non economic worried or we've seen in be sent in recent weeks, attacks on the chinese targets in boxed on, which is of course, a big concern for a china relations we've, we've china. right. so this kind of political instability, i think only depos concerns about things like foreign investment into bucket software. attracting, attracting the investor confidence is going to be difficult with, with this kind of paralysis. okay, i'm very quickly also on the, on the subject with you house on. obviously this instability reflects on that. it will also be security challenges be increasing terrorism. that fall had was just touching on on china re key investor in pakistan,

tens of thousands of chinese workers impact is done. all of this is piling up pressure, isn't it on the government to try and resolve this political situation? yes, i think so. i think uh there is, uh, you know, there is a sense in moving forward in a direction where they're able to find a solution of the solution to the problem. because uh, i think it'd be kind of situation is becoming a little bit unsustainable. especially because the boston for the contracts is a speaking, you know, in some sense the focus of the government away from many of the challenges such as the economy that we've talked about in lent. but also the data is on challenge, which is becoming sites quite continuous now. uh, you know, soldiers of the box and army and civilians both are losing our lives. and i'm becoming casual during the war on terrorism of war against terrorism, which is a, you know, now taking a annual shaven fault impact us on. so i think the how the government needs to

focus on these 2 areas, primarily attracting investment has been a big more to government and all the media g establishment to the s i f. c, the special investment facilitation sense. and so in order to focus on these areas of reform, i think they need to find a political solution that is able to dissolve the instability that we're gonna be seeing and buckets time. all right, unfortunately, we're all out of time, but thank you to all of our guests to is he met cima to house on ok. about answer for how to home, man, on thank you to for watching. you can see the problem again. any time by visiting our website alger 0 adult calm and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha, inside story. you can also joined the conversation on x. we all at a j inside story from me, but smith and the whole team here. bye for now. the

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