to this hosting its 10 towards during the day on the 10th of december 2024 in doha katasha. shea come on the award for translation and international understanding from the arabic language to mankind, to talk to sounds. capital is sealed on security forces have been deployed. the stall came on come support us from marching into islamic, demanding, the former prime minister, released from jail on the government resigning cause. this leads to more political instability. bits is inside store the hello. welcome to the program. i'm but it's tens of thousands of people have reached the outskirts of pakistan's capital is what i'm about. and what he's

looking like the biggest protest, much since february's disputed election vote. both the packaged on muslim league unpackaged on people's policy to palate, but in wrong caused support to say the vote was stolen from that policy, the p t. i. and that the district has been manipulated to keep that lida out to politics. con has been in jail since may convicted of corruption. he says, the government and the establishment, a euphemism for the powerful security forces. want him to remain behind boss. p t i support is a demanding comm, be released, and the government resign. so what might happen next? com packaged on is government survive, quote. com be freed. we'll look at the issues in a moment. but 1st this report from fence and model is level about as a city under locked down, the roads are closed. internet is restricted and police are out in force. they've promised to response with lead to any demonstrations by supporters of jail form or

prime minister in wrong cause. you don't want to do a good job. the entire central district is being monitored by his limit. bad police of any protest is comes on that will be a rest of the media article on the golf process on the hundreds of con, supporters of already been arrested. but they remain undeterred. they want their leader out of jail and the current government out of office, tens of thousands of come from across the country. and they want their voices to be heard because you're not helping them with us. with god's willing, we will stay on the streets and continue the struggle for our rights until the return of our rights of the people are purchased um through in 2022 in wrong. com is removed, his prime minister in no confidence though. since then, he's been charged and jailed over dozens of criminal cases, many of which have resulted in acquittal con supporters that his rivals are weaponized in the justice system to keep them out of power. is to wreak and soft party the p t. i was banned from contesting the elections. so as little as round as

independence combines, they won the most seats, no power. he won a majority. however, resulting a coalition government and more protest on the streets of his lum, about many long for stability and return to normality. now instead of like the body, but these regular protests are not only destroying our economy, but are making our country situation unstable, which is not a favor to our country at all. we won't pack a sense top political leaders to sit down and find solutions to these problems. the situation is very serious. this should not happen, but it is impacting our country's economic situation. there should be political stability in the country. the only option is that these policies should go for elections. there was a conflict between the government and the opposition, which is having a negative impact on our country. and it should be results. but for now, pockets of political giants appear to be deadlocked. and wrong con supporters are

determined to get them out of jail and back in power. his opponents and the governing coalition wants him out of office and out of politics, permanently fence and monahan, l 20 for inside story. that the process. com is packaged, downsize, these many challenges. come all high. the reports problem is i'm about on some of them thousands of protests guys of a moran con, the former prime minister, who didn't j, a marching on this long robot and getting ever closer. now to drop them. your daughter do have requisition, the services of the militia that you're see behind me, marching towards me, backed up by the ranges, who are all still going to be using, right? yeah. and charge guns to stop doors projectors from coming into his number. but they're also backed by tens of thousands of policemen or been brought in from other provinces to beef up focused on the square of fame it protest read new

exaggeration. gordon. art have come to the worst time in the country as seen a cycle of while and in the part of 2 in our district along the avalon border. where stick dead in groups had been fighting each other in a mounting deck door. also the fact that the country they're going to make is covering the progress on your government is on a bailout from the i. a man and daily life is on. now it said to be in hundreds of millions of dollars because the transport system, daily communication mobile services, internet services have been blocked and so have many of the highway leading to its lama. but which of course is leading to a large and revenue for transport does scores that code under countries under what you'll see. now, the important thing will be how the government said to this particular problem. people at large are saying that there should be a political solution to a political problem and that the use of force may exacerbate an already complicated

situation. that is come on either in the summer but for the inside story. the spring in august, joining us from is lama but is a z. my cima political economy specialist, on founding director of the pakistani think tank. the so consulting and washington dc is how some of the practice done fellow at the woodrow wilson center. he previously worked in both the practice on a government on the private sector, focusing on national security on strategic policy. in san francisco is pod home i own a visiting scholar at the center of international security and cooperation at stanford university. welcome to all of you. i'll begin with you for how if i may do we send this to you since the beginning of the end game impact is done for this coalition government it's difficult to say at this point in time um,

but the sign is unfortunately no stranger to crisis and the political during model that we're seeing at the moment is the extension of the crisis that began in 2022. when private industry, i'm ron khan, was removed from power through a vote of no confidence. sands has been incarcerated with a number of criminal charges against him, most of which he says are politically motivated. but essentially what we're seeing is a face off between a popular politician, arguably the most popular politician and consequential a politician in buckets done right now. and a military establishment that is intent on trying to ensure some degree of both political and economic stability which has eluded boxed on for several years. the problem of at the moment seems to be that both in ronald fund

and the military establishment have very hardened positions. and it doesn't seem as if either side of it is, is willing to sort of compromise or soften its positions to a point where a solution could be reached in this garden crisis and rocks on has called on his supporters to march on his loan route. and suggest that the sort of mass mobilization bed iran, klein had intended, perhaps hasn't materialized. but it's also important to consider the obstacles that iraq's on supporters faced, both in terms of breasts and intentions. and the gap down on the bpi active as be dropping the parking lot in rockland river. okay, well how, so we are hearing there. there are tens of thousands of people on the outskirts of his lama. but is that enough to dislodge this government to pulse,

to full somebody's hum. i mean, as, as the headset, i think it's barely to say what the outcome would be. i think it will depend largely on how sustainable this product is going to be. we should remember that only a month or so ago abroad cardboard test as leg by the chief minister. okay. but before i leave, i mean the board also came to us not on board with almost the same demise for release of the nonsense. but the, what i'm sustainable as soon as they reach the style, but they had to leave the capital of the police crackdown on them in a major way. so we still have to see how this is going to band out there right now at the outskirts of the capitals. and there is a heavy deployment of police, both from a sound, but these ranges and police from outside, from other provinces which have been bought into somebody. so we have to see the increments are unprecedented. i must say it's that'd be administration and miss

dawn by the federal government has made unprecedented arrangements this time. we've not seen such a large scale locked down. they have been contained as on all major highways have been locked. um, the internet has been slowed down and so we still have to see how this is going to find out. i think the outcome would depend largely on whether the buddhist us been able to be able to reach us all about and then sustain for a day or 2. i think that could fall assigned to the government to negotiate a theme or off to of i guess the all hedging the bet split the miller trees have to essentially locked themselves in the capital. have them, they do do sense, any tension there. and as i'm about is tension all over the country. vainly aside then a husband raised extremely burden and point. i think it's really important to remember that not only have b t i lead buying around con, marched on islam abroad before. but the 1st march was 10 years ago now

they were able to sustain that launch for a really long time. it was months and months. and perhaps we did that precedent and expect that they would not be able to effect the, those kind of results unless they can achieve that kind of a for attracted sustained protest in the city. what i think we shouldn't underestimate is that mr. con has been able to successfully mobilize protests, does his party walk us and his body supporters at least again and again in cycles. and that has led to this, you know, sort of attracted conflict bunch, punctuated by the cycles of protest. and that mister con, has been able to do this with liquor to no cost to his popularity. on the other hand, um, i think i'm on head this report. i actually use the word cj. the state has in fact be seated itself in this long about husbands, right. the containers,

the container presence, the restrictions on mobility uh the restrictions on connectivity are happening at an unprecedented scale. and the difference is that we all, perhaps as all of this morning, realizing that we may be looking at a week or so of this now week of or so of these kind of a shut down in the slower, by that least means that you know, the maintenance critical boss to the business uh um, to the business of government to the business of the private sector to children going to school. and these are these are being born largely by a nation that's suffering huge losses under focused on economic crisis anyway. so there are costs to bubble perception as well as the there are a, the have been the protest before we have seen this before impact is done, but surely now it's getting much more seriously. economy particularly, isn't

a terrible mess. the government has to go once more money from the i am actually go about $3000000000.00, show it to him load it wants another $6000000000.00. now is a different, this time in terms of the protests and the consequences the, the kinetic situation isn't great and boxed on. it's perhaps not as precarious as it was uh, several months ago. and the approval also new. i am a funding program and the slight upgrade of the solver and credit rating of the country has in some ways helped the bug is done and boxed i need a good economy in terms of its outlook. having said that, um, i don't think we're out of the woods yet. and for the political establishment, this kind of political instability is only likely to compound risk to the economy.

as well as the impression off insolvency, which the military establishment and the govern government has tried very hard to fend off of iran con strategy right now is essentially that of the gorilla insurgent he doesn't necessarily have to show that he has, he's able to rodney huge crowds, but he simply needs to show that the, the stablish mind and the current government is unpopular and doesn't enjoy the mass support of the country to the point where governance is actually difficult. and i think he's able to do that quite effectively, even though he's behind bars of the fact that he's in jail and makes him immensely popular. i think it's important to remember that uh, 2 thirds of pakistan's population are turnkey. under the age of 13, many of these young people are either unemployed. don't have good economic prospect and see in m. ron assigned. um, you know,

it could be as british in over the hopes or a political future that will sort of digs. dicks on board of their, their aspirations. okay. so how something there is a huge economic pressure on the government is another one estimate. i got was off a $1000000000.00 hit to the economy the moment with the roads blocks and the trains not running it. surely, i'm not sustainable. i agree. it's on sustainable, especially during the last few years. the, by me, has had some success in terms of stabilizing the keys on some macro economic fundamentals, economic security. and the state of the funding me has been a big concern for the establishment for the ruling and eating breakfast on and for the international community. and so in that sense, i think continuous law says it's something that i'd like to bet on. on the government. i'm and force the hand of the stablish mind to move forward and find the political solution to the gun in crisis. again, i think the fundamental point here is that, you know,

working non size continuous mobilizations again and again have demonstrated instead focused on politics in many ways are, you know, transforming because of the bulge as 400 was mentioning because of the social media people are accessing alternate sources of information, a majority of young people in buckets on they have different aspirations. and i think in the long term in the medium to long term that needs to be a reset of politics and bucket start. and we really have to figure out a way of moving forward where we're going to be able to deal with this stuff. but i mean issue of the instability. i'm frankly dealing with the question of how we can transition from one government to another without entering into these perpetual phases of, of crisis us. i think the major issue right now is whether they will be a political solution between them on support followed by non assignment as parties . i think those are difficult to model for any government defense and particularly

related to the you know, the amendments that recently boss, the 26th amendment and the question of holding new elections, which was essentially mean that the government would have to go. and so, since these are such large the mines that has to be a major way of finding a box forward for which is a win win box, whole works of the government and forks for them. and i'll con, uh, i think, okay, so the good stability is essentially the biggest box on is dealing with many challenges. all right. we still haven't talked about that. it isn't. i mean, in the last week alone. yeah. so that a 100 guys would use uh, in into a provinces and boxed on it is, it is frankly a very worthy concern. uh so many of us will. i mean, the guy who just focused on faces, we really have to move forward and find us in the past. we'll come back to the security situation shortly. but as even a building on something else, how someone was saying is, is there a problem with the legitimacy of ship?

i should reach administration is built on shaky foundations because of that come come contested election back in february. it's very difficult for them is need to remain legitimate. i mean, i think there is a broader legitimacy crisis of the boxes. tons, conference situation is in a way, a continuation of an order of focus on the situation. if you go back to work, fod said military dispensations do frequently come in to provide the, the sort of a time frame of stability in economic policy to stabilize the metro economic fundamentals. whenever bug as done is in the a and then they can all make crisis. those are, you know, again be we have these pages of punctuated military rule that have a directory it off with democracy, but they do stabilize the macro economic fundamentals for a time being. however, at the moment, not only is box sounds, economic situation extremely dire. there has been a further loss uh,

in how people perceive various d doctors. and it's not just a shoe box you these government. the problem is that we did have an election that the people are focused on in spite of many, many challenges participated in. and those election results have been, you know, not only perceived as misreported, manipulated, they've cost, you know, that in the cloud over this administration that this administration has not been able to recover from. and while the macro economic fundamentals have stabilized to some degree, and we're seeing interesting though, some of the negative trends, the public have yet to be the beneficiary of any of that. in fact, in they seem to be, did, mr. con has become the beneficiary of logic public discontent because the process or the persecution of his political party has been perceived as unfair because the

of the, the way the election was conducted has been perceived as unfair. and again, there is a larger grievance around the economy for a wrong tax ation around the unfair distribution of taxation. so there's a large wave of public sympathy that supporting this. that said, people absolutely do not want to see violence. people absolutely don't want. this is to engage in violence, and this unfortunately is a trajectory that we seem to be on, on something has to diffuse this. all right? so far it is that a way that income could potentially fix or repack his relationship with the military establishments that might then lead to a for a way to him to get out of jail. um, you know, i think i think we have to sort of wait and see um as i mentioned before,

both them are on fine and the military seem to be hemmed in very much too hard line . maximum of those positions. uh, one possible solution i think would be for it. i think them and the preferred solution for the military would be to perhaps release him wrong, but perhaps him wrong. have him wrong son. as the leader of the opposition returned to parliament and have the government continue, it's term um, uh, some sort of political reconciliation might be achieved that way. but again, a wrong times, demands that the government go that the 26th amendment that was recently bought that has significant deal to deal with the powers of disappeared. traditionally, i think would be very difficult for either the military establishment or the, the sitting government to accept right now. i'm all not due on the 26th amendment has about a week and the independence of park is done this to dish retail. i think it's,

i think there's several questions that it has raised about the, about the traditionally, um and uh, we still have to see how it will function. i don't think that it's an ideal situation. uh, there are questions about creating a, i mean it's much better than what was originally dropped. it was originally presented and it wasn't a goal. she shouldn't have been very disappointed about political actors. and so the main one that came in that sense was much better than the one that was originally proposed. we still have to see the outcome of this. but critics, uh, particularly those belonging to him right besides body said that the informs introduce you to are actually targeting his body and image on son and the ensuring that you know the cases of our election is a lot of these lots come up and distributed traditionally and when they do come to be, i didn't put in front of us selected a bundled, i think those questions remain. we still have to see,

we haven't seen any judgments from the new uh, you know, closer to the front benches that were created. so we still have to see how this spends out, but in any case, i think the question larger question here is that given all the changes that are happening in buckets on and the lack of stability that we're seeing is the country moving forward. and i think many of us have concerns that, you know, we are stuck in a policy, but alice's, these continuous protests are costing be calling me. um they're, they're getting a negative environment internationally. i mean, today when the boat, this is happening, the president of battles is on a state visit to buck this time. and this is not a good look far for up front of the country, the size of bunker sense. so for us to be able to move forward and, and dealing with some of our challenges, i think the needs to be some, some of the reconciliations and for the discussion to move forward. so have a package done,

a nuclear power do its neighbors and allies get nervous when they see the sort of instability. it's your particular area of interest for you. um, you know, any kind of instability, of course, has, has implications that extend far beyond just domestic politics. so having said that, i think um, you know, boxed on is currently locked into a position where uh, the economy is not doing frankly too well. and boxed items. regional relationships are sort of also on auto cruise or auto pilot. um, if you will, both relations with india and, and neighboring neighboring of, honest on are far from ideal um, focused on relationship with china. all sports is very much right there in case seems for the prism off. um yeah. can i make cooperation and the china boxed on

economic gloried, or we've seen in be sent in recent weeks, attacks on the chinese targets in boxed on, which is, of course, a big concern for a china relations we've, we've china. right. so this kind of political instability, i think only depos concerns about things like foreign investment into bucket software, detracting, attracting the investor confidence is going to be difficult with, with this kind of paralysis. okay, and very quickly also on the, on the subject with you house on. obviously this instability reflects on that. it will also be security challenge has been increase in terrorism. the fall had was just touching on on china or t investor in pakistan, tens of thousands of chinese workers impact is done. all of this is piling up pressure, isn't it on the government to try and resolve this political situation?

yes, i think so. i think uh there is, uh, you know, there is a sense in moving forward in a direction where been able to find a solution under the solution to the problem. um, because uh, i think could be kind of the situation is becoming a little bit unsustainable. especially because the cost of political tracts is a speaking, you know, in some sense the focus of the government away from many of the challenges such as the economy that we've talked about in lent. but also the data isn't challenged, which has become insights. it's quite continuous now. uh, you know, soldiers of the box and army and civilians both are losing our lives and i'm becoming casual. redeem the war on terrorism of war against terrorism, which is a, you know, now taking a annual shaven fault impact hassan. so i think the how the government needs to focus on these 2 areas, primarily attracting investment has been a big more to government. and all the media g stablish went up to the s i

f. c, the special investment facilitation sense. and so in order to focus on these areas of reform, i think we need to find a political solution that is able to dissolve the instability that we're gonna be seeing and bucket. so all right, unfortunately, we're all out of time, but thank you to all of our guests to is the met cima to house on ok, about until for high to homeland on thank you to for watching. you can see the problem again. any time by visiting our website alger 0 adult calm and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. let's facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. we all at a j inside story from me, but smith and the whole team here, bye for now. the . it fits the fastest expansion of

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