the the . ringback the although i'm, adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i will just say, or you'll reach and look at the world of business. i think it all makes this rich. the us dollar has been on our role, but for how much longer. we look at why, but bring back a strength and effective spelled trouble for the rest of the world. donald trump's

terrorist threats could help decide brookings afraid future. so should the u. k. pick sides between the us and europe, or kind of the strike deals with folks. i lice is an easy i wants to become a high income nation by 2045, but it's middle class is shrinking. so it won't, can help shore up the incomes of millions of it's an easy and donald trump will certainly back in the top job of the us dollar has risen on the back of his presidential election. victory had got a lot stronger the strongest of the year. days off to trump was elected the riley last week on the school. the strength of the american economy in comparison to which will be is known as american economic exceptionalism. and it makes it cheaper for many americans shop us to buy foreign goods and to travel abroad, but a strong dot doesn't lift old boats. companies the export products may become less competitive and the us deficit met may whiten. that's a problem for trump is often said that he prefers

a weaker dollar. the greenbacks rise could also create a lot of pain for the rest of the world. as veronica pedroza reports, donald trump fuss a weaker exchange rate to support the growth of us exports and help reduce the country's trade deficit. but since winning the us presidential election, the dollar has skyrocketed mostly in anticipation of his policies to impose paris on imports. and texas, trump is known for um, for growth on policy. so i think that's why the market has been reacting positively because i'm to provo. yeah, piece for growth so it will stimulate economic growth. however, having said that, you know, for the policy, we also bring inflationary expectation to it because you're stimulating date economy. a strong dollar makes it cheaper for american consumers to buy foreign goods to travel abroad. but for us companies,

it means that our exports become more expensive and less competitive in the global market. and for all the countries dependent on trade with the us, they are bracing themselves for the effects of higher costs and the potential economic slowdown. up carolina told me i get to him in so given that we now have an anticipated policy direction or something, even before the trump administration has fully launched, the international markets have already begun responding the so please monitor the markets carefully and for k comprehensively. trump once a week dollar, but his policies might have the opposite effect, which would not have any impact to us, but the entire global economy. veronica pedroza al jazeera, the counting the cost on the continent to expect it to be hit hottest by the effects of a stronger dollar is africa when 9 countries are in debt distress, meaning that they can't repay the loans. many of these loans must be paid in

dollars, and a stronger dollar makes them more expensive. this forces countries to spend less on things like health care, education, and infrastructure. the rising dollar also increases the cost of imports. this can cause inflation to rise in countries already struggling. for example, substitute balance inflation rate is 107 percent to bob with is over 50 percent times yearly. many african economies depends on exporting commodities like oil, gold and culpa. these are all priced in dollars in a stronger dollar makes these goods more expensive for consumers globally, eventually reducing the demand and ultimately shrinking export revenues. this could be a major issue for countries like by jerry up, south africa and zambia. joining us not for london is my outline, c i o office a capital markets really good to have you with us. why would a donald trump presidential victory have strengthened the dollar so significantly, base for i mean that i think it was very much given that some of the rent donald

from the president elect, someone who will take the office daughter is going to become more strong. that because he is very much pro dollar and then he's going to make show that the daughter is gonna remain the dominant culture and say, now as you've mentioned and year obviously strong. the daughter is a major, had been for the number of emerging countries. uh, the one that you've mentioned, however, there is a bit of a cab yet to that. and that is, but if you are looking at for advice is yes daughter will become stronger. but then of, of course, throughout the process where we could look at the dollar become a bit more because as well, which i will discuss in the later part. but 1st, that's to pass on the commodity perspective. and especially for my old perspective, or even when the president elect will take the office, what we are anticipating re enters a painting, nor oil prices. we are anticipating for the process to go down to $2040.00

a perhaps below $40.00. why? because his policy is going to be very simple, grew baby trail, and that is what american oil companies are going to do. so that means we kinda have abundant supply on the market. now, last thoughts shift back to your conversation about stronger dollar. we see a much stronger dollar or why the stronger dollar has happened. the reason is, of course, what the federal reserve is. uh, but it how, how the federal service kindly gets monetary policy in relation to economic data. now the yes of course, trump, on one time he's very much pro daughter. he was the daughter should remain strong. but at the same time, he's also an individual or chevy say, and elect president who doesn't like interest rates to remain strong for a longer period of time. so there is this element, there is this concern among the investors and traitors that when president elect will take the office, he will inset more pressure on the federal reserves to cut the interest rates more

rapidly. so what does that entail that entails the current grant, which everyone has informed me that body day and emerging market may no longer be that much of a significant correct for them? in fact, but could be looking at a situation where we have a weaker dollar and also a lower commodity prices. i, i just wanna pick you up on something you said they use a trump is in favor of a strong adult that he's made it clear in the past that he would prefer the dollar to be. we cut off the lessons for the incoming from administration, from his 1st job. all right, the dollars strengthens when he was 1st elected in 2016 a year later it was want something like 10 percent loa, he's harris, inheriting a very different economy. this time round isn't a and i think trump is very lucky in terms of inhabiting the economy because when he can haze episode number one, he came from a bama administration. right. so it was so he and how to the economy,

which compilation was coming from a, a bomb administration economy. it wasn't a very strong footing. so trump had that plenty of t. ready moving in times off of these policies and the economy performed really well. now in the after season to chevy safe off trump uh, administration. again, he's been incredibly lucky from that particular perspective. why? because we are looking at a situation from the monetary policy standpoint, from the federal reserve standpoint, brett defender is that is causing the interest rate. and we all know one thing for sure. and then history tells us over and over and over again. then market loves dogfish, right? meaning when the interest rates, that kind of thing, when monetary policy is actually more on the topic side. so i think that is what we're going to see in the, in the season to of trump administration as well. so this, this administration is going to have a lot more experience on the backs, the, what they did in the end of season one,

either or when trump was back in the office and use that experience as a leverage to perform and do batch of steps. but at least that is, what is the anticipated among be investment for benefit? could you foresee a situation where the dollar weekends against the euro, the pound, the end significantly to below parity, perhaps even not below prior to that is that's not of a base case scenario. or among the major banks that's on the walls, trades that we can see below priority below prodigy or the stress of that happens during the bush administration brand, we lessing, financial process. secondly, fiction, dalrish, monetary policy, significant interests re pods. now, even though we are anticipating adopters, monetary policy, meaning a number of to spread costs going into the next couple of years. but no one is going to expect for that number or the power to, to take place. there is a possibility that we could perhaps see in terms of the euro by in terms of styling

or other major g time currencies. i think i especially in, in, in, in terms of fast. i mean, i don't think we're going to get that until and unless, of course that you get decides to have a more self inflicted injuries, like the one they have before i. e brackets, you couldn't force the situation then where a trunk trouble buyout, not a dollar that so it's simply too strong for his liking, introduced to something like the plaza accord. we saw in the reagan administration where the, the, the dollar was effectively be valued in coordination. with, with the, with allies while about like i'm, i'm glad that you brought those particular points on their very interesting point. bought a game the is the, the best case scenario is going to be what the federal reserve or the monetary policy is really going to be a half a day in commerce expressions going to instead on the federal reserve chairman and it's the federal reserve is going to have its own choice of making the interest.

right. so pretty slow. absolutely not the basic is somebody among many investors or even in the options market. i am ready to go to talk to your buddy. thanks. event for being with us. pleasure. me a freaking. let's choose between the european union socialist model and the american free market. that's the amount of the top economic adviser to president elect. donald trump, the ultimate on made and media interviews comes with an incentive. stephen mall said that if the u. k. sides with his nation, the be more willing us and the trump administration to find a trade deal between the 2 allies, critics so, so that most comment is a statement id. ology and into fee is in persons political affairs, the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey has $1.00. do you take government against picking sides but is the u . k. really cool between 2 economic models or does it have all the choices? well, that potentially depends on what's at stake. the u. k. might face high a tar excellent exports to the us if it chooses to stay closer to europe. on the

campaign trail, donald trump is struck and levies of up to 20 percent on all american imports. with additional terrace of 60 percent to 100 percent on goods bought from china. trade talks between the u. k in the us also hanging the balance. they've long story because of disagreements of agricultural standards, including concerns over the import of chlorinated chicken. a whole loan treated beef into britain bought the bank of england has urged breakfast private as the chemist on the step up. ty is with the you saying that the you case exit from the block has weighed on the nation's economy. that would trade its numbers, but not to comb us between the u. k. and europe is 3 times logic between the u. k. and the us taken as a block, the u is the case, largest overall, trade post and accounting for 43 percent of trade. while the us is britain, the single largest trade pump that with more than $388000000000.00 worth of goods

and services. this year, the u. k. could face of almost $28000000000.00 hit to its exports. if trump imposes a blanket 20 percent tariff on all inputs, according to new analysis by the university of sussex, this dentists for inclusive trade policy well research as of aston university in england. estimated that between 20212023 annual u. k. exports of goods to the e. u was 17 percent low of them. they would have been had brakes. it never happened . joining us from colchester. any u. k is how it read. he's the director of land, but economics and the full chief economist at the institute for public policy research, good time, you with us. how does the okay really have to make this choice between the us or the yours, the governor of the bank of england. right. what he said, the case of just continued trading with everyone has its always done well, i think the, the, you type will continue to try with both blocks the us and the a you, i think what might happen is that as you've said, the trumpet,

ministration may try to pick for you. kyle, is it what by offering a preference? who do i think it would be dangerous to sign up for that because i think it might affect the, the, you know, kind of like you probably relationship via you, which is a power the biggest trading brock and a lot each remain started. so i think it would be dangerous to kind of type back bite. we'll see, you guys typed that bite from the us, but it has been a lot a to insist on opening up. so markets such as a, uh, you know, core and i did chicken full mindset, but if in the agriculture set do as much as you do taking, james, just don't want to say that happened inside of the you take off. remember, funny, so very important for homework to proceed down that road. okay. as you say, britain would always be the junior pop. now, given the size of the us economy in any trade deal is it, is, it really was because while i'm, you mentioned the issue of, you know,

whole bunch of different chlorinated chicken with the british public stand for it. i think by ready wouldn't stand for it. well, pretty good british populate, wouldn't stand for, i mean, paul went off the polish side. they're really opposed to face kind of products answering the british market. i know, so i think that do you type foaming say, what's done for the i'm the you take government's currently in a kind of dispute with the uh, the british promise, if it changes to inheritance tax, which the following will be as kind of exaggerated this because most problems in the u. k. one, the paying inheritance tax, even though spending published on high on not really big farms bought the monument, is probably the worst possible time for the british government to get into a dispute with a side, an agricultural sector. and so i think it's, i think it's very unlikely that case the, and the kind of government will take up the us on the, on that sort of preferential tradeoff. or even if it was that she also do want to see, we don't know yet what the jump administration will actually do. so which would cost

the okay. economy more failing to address the gap caused by briggs, it's or the 20 percent tariffs, the trump is threatening on or goods imported into the us. what i would say the, i would say that the, you kind of need to close a trading relationship with the you move in it, and they probably start trading relationship with the us. and so, i mean, even if we, even if we went along with some of the us will trump was suggesting, trump is a very kind of, i'm capricious and why would call a character very difficult to 2nd guess. so this policy is probably gonna lead to significant costs for the us economy party post inflation in the us. so we might find the interview. the is the, the us economy is currently doing better than the union sends you guys to g d p per head. but all through a company is a trunk that might no longer be the type. so the, the, you might begin to lock

a much better option for the u. k. and obviously we have breaks it, which is a big kind of case of shooting out sales in the for a while. stuff i think would be able to be rejoined the you any time soon. we can least push for a more a price or trading relationship with the you are not like nice destiny. what you guys you, i wanted to ask you about. that is, if trump impose us these 20 percent import tires and all goods coming from the you to what extent does the you need trade with with britain to the extent that they possibly will give britain more favorable trading conditions. ready well, we might get more more try, uh, 5 volts running just bit by the list. gonna come with significant strings attached . if we get it, they with that nature and i think it would probably be in the guys best interest to reject that. and instead push the close to trading links with the with the a you, which is a rate the a much bigger trading problem there for the u. k. then the us is, um,

so i will probably end up getting 20 percent terms across the board for about a few k u k companies setting into the us and the company. so in the us. but we might be able to offset that. we pay the trading arrangements with the because the, the brakes that we built in 20192020 was pretty how it breaks it out. you know, all trading sites. this would be the use of that. right. right now we should really . ready be looking to improve that really hope to talk to you, how it on cutting the cost manufacturing data being with us. thanks very much. nice to be much for the return of donald trump is also expected to reshape relations between washington and china. as you heard, badging could face up to 60 percent of tariffs on it exports to the us, but a chinese bank, mega porch and peru could create new routes that will bypass north america entirely . the project is part of china is pushed to increase its influence in less than america traditionally seen as the us back yard. but last week,

the presidents of peru in china integrated the 3 and a half $1000000000.00 china type port, which is intended to boost trade and the asia pacific region through is hoping the joint venture will transform it into the largest trading help in south america. a surrogate reports a one smooth fishing village has been transformed into a mega pool. see, see the 3 and a half $1000000000.00 private venture between china and prove is is the start of the new global trade partnership. it's one that peruse lita who will transform the country. you'll see it showing that as a preview will be key in the maritime roots of global trade, which will turn into more investments, more trade and development for country. the pulse construction is positive. china is wide of belts and road initiative. we're not only witnessing the solid and successful joint implementation of the belt and road initiative in peru, but also the birth of a new land and maritime cord,

or between asia and latin america. experts say many countries in the global south sea china, at the most favorable trading partner, then the us for your, at the 4 countries in a lot in american south america that depend so heavily on exports the defense so heavily on placing our goods in the world market and it seems to me that it china's role in promoting free trade and then promoting more director. this is extremely important. or the pulse is expected to handle 1000000 containers in its foster corporations and reduce travel time between lots in america and asia. by nearly 2 weeks, it's something that is about a local peruvian entrepreneur to export soft choice to china, says will benefit hop business. we're through, we're very excited that the chinese government this, this investment improve, i think, to add china believe in the lives and what we have the pool is expected to generate

around 2000 new jobs by next year. but chan cause may doubts that the economic rewards will trickle down to benefit the entire community. lanita is stop wasting, therefore, the focus is on the part, but we have a seat in next week, many needs. some places don't even have drinking water or sewage, and that is extreme poverty and that is 0 public investment. it remains unclear how much of the incoming investment would impact the life of the 60000 people living in shanghai. but for now, the city is celebrating, at least the prospect of change, sorry, go out to 0. the counting the cost us in recent decades, indonesia has been something of a success story recording rapid growth rates and reducing extreme poverty. the southeast asian nation is trying to build on that to become

a high income country. within the next 21 years. spending by the nation's middle cost plays a crucial role in driving the economic growth. but the number of indonesians would fall into that social group is declining. more than 10000000 people have slipped out of it since 2019. the government is now under pressure to increase the incomes if it wants to scale up its economy. research has found the purchasing power of the middle class and aspiring middle class in indonesia has been decreasing over the past 5 years, with a rising cost of living, millions of inter, easy and so now forced to spend more on food and basic needs. the problem is a challenge for president pro, so bianco, who has pledged to achieve g d p growth of 8 percent of the eliminate policy before this middle class? well, there's no universal definition of what is middle class or how it should be measured . it usually refers to a group of people who are neither very rich and all very pull by world bank

definition that economically secure. which means they have enough income to come a basic needs and some extra money to spend the luxuries such as vacations on hobbies based on the institutions criteria the end of easy and government pacifies . those who spend between $132.00 to $643.00 a month. as middle class, the spending accounts for nearly 40 percent of private consumption, about an 80 percent. if combined with the aspiring middle class who spend between $57.00 and $132.00 a month. joining us from chicago in indian easier is tobias pursuits. he's the managing director and co founder of our stock lease consults and full of senior research at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with this device. why is it easy? is middle class declining? i thanks for having the adrian i. yes, that's a i think a major report recently published by the in any agents that this difficult agency sounding a lot of the declining middle class in general. the problem is

a bit multi faceted, for one is actually as i think your report mentioned before, the finding the middle class has been quite a challenging issue. do define what really is the middle class, for example, the indonesian so this makes use of expenditure rather than income. so that's what that being said, being definitions, having a lot of great area, i think, and it's not going to be in the past 5 years. but in the past 10 years, there has been some challenges in, in the growing middle class. i think a lot of people are loving the, a ended growing indonesia middle class from the 2019 what bank report. but since then on, i think there's a lot of economic policies, in addition to also the impact of the corporate 19 pandemic that actually are these a lot of income to pass that the not a, not so much income for past due by the expenditure capacity and also rising costs within the indonesian middle class and other issues. yes. so what does be that easy

and government need to do to fix this for one is, i think as a targeted subsidies is one of the biggest issues. the indonesian government has actually, uh, tried its best, but according again to the numbers, if it's something that becomes very complicated, for example, the floor uh for a middle strong middle class, a segment which is uh, the so call 70 percent. now that has reduced by $10000000.00 is at the $125.00 or $130.00. and that number is actually the benchmark for the government to decide whether someone or an a citizen can access subsidies. for example, subsidies for the 3rd year education university or other subsidies, and often people with a income above $12530.00. us dollars cannot access those subsidies, although that income is not, is not very high,

especially considering the expenditure. probably a gets the same. see, they basically take all their competitors out of their income. so how long will it take to turn the situation on? how long before people begin to feel better off? yeah, i think that's a, that's a $1000000.00 question. of course, indonesia is not necessarily in the, in a completely bad shape. the economy is growing, even after dependent may happen. uh, the economy grows again, gets close to 5 percent. but i think the incoming government probably will government will be very crucial in, in what kind of policies they're doing. but at this point, we are still a little bit worried because a lot of the signature projects on board presidents, the ex president of what we go to and the current president russell in the free lunch program and the new capital, the ex president, will actually be a fiscal burden towards the indonesian government and in order to accurately grow the economy effectively. so i'm hoping that the incoming government will

recalculate and re rethink a lot of his policy is a specialist pissed off policies, which is also now a big issue in indonesia. the rising of the fast value added tax to the top percent and the mid january 2025 now is already getting a lot of a rejection from society because it has a multiplier effect. then under the middle class of spending capacity device has been really good still to on counting the cost manufacture date for being with us. thank you. thanks for having. and that's our show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen, i'm at a finnegan on x. try to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c. or you can drop us a line cash and the cost of our 0. don't net is our email address, as always, there's plenty more few online, and obviously with dot com slash ctc that takes you straight to the page and the, you'll find individual reports links even into additions for you to capture that.

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