almost $4000.00 people killed more than $1200000.00 displaced and estimated economic losses of $8500000000.00 live it owns prime minister is cooling, has the laws nearly 14 months conflict with this around the cruelest phase. in the country's history, deceased by office, hope for a return to pace and a chance for people to rebuild their lives. but the agreement between live and on and as round to implement both the u. s. is cooling a permanent into hostilities, has raised questions, is the underfunded an under results liberties and a position to enforce the terms of the cx 5 deal. and how fragile will the situation pay over the next $60.00 days when it's ready troops? and has bloss sizes withdrawal from southern living on we will discuss these issues without guest and the money. the 1st, the support buffington monahan, thousands of lebanese are returning to their homes in the south after deal was reached to end the conflict between israel and has the law. these really most res

bombing campaign. and later it's ground invasion had forced them to lead north with the fighting. now apparently at an end, they're celebrating the chance to go back to their everyday lives. we are happy because we are returning to our land and homes in the south. we are over joy, of course we can also get those who were killed or injured on these really side of the border has blo, rockets are no longer fully, but some are skeptical. the piece will last about that got this. all i know is that the campaign will be renewed, sometimes it doesn't matter whether it's in 2 months or 2 years or 5 years. the deal states has bullfighters will not operate between the autonomy river and the blue line. the un designated temporary border in return, these rarely military will withdraw its soldiers from southern lab, and on, over a period of 60 days, the lebanese army will then be responsible for patrolling the border and reporting any complaints to the un peacekeeping force of the us and friends of ours all

parties to work towards the lasting piece. we determine this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence. and so the united states with the full support of france and our other. 5 allies as pleasure to work with is wrong, love, and on to ensure that those are right this, this arrangement is fully implemented since last october is really attacks of killed, more than 3800 people in lab and on average use many areas to revel on the streets of a root has below supporters see the cease fire as a victory. but israel is also declaring it a when to some of the famous lovely. we killed thousands of terrorists and we demolished their underground care infrastructure in your, our border infrastructure. they had been building for years but while the conflict 11 on maybe over, for now, israel's offensive and gaza shows no sign of ending. it's already killed, more than $44000.00 palestinians, and seas bar tool to ground to a halt. and as long as that war continues,

regional peace may prove elusive. vincent bonnet, l to 0 for inside story was an a hold a has more on the mood and southern living on now the slicing his don't see reports from the city of another to the sounds of thousands of people are starting to return to their homes across the southern 11 on some are not finding any home to return to because if you just look behind me, this is just an example of the scale of the destruction we are in. nobody of this city came under heavy as really bombardments for weeks every streets, every street corner usually seems of destruction from is really strikes and the majority of the people in the butt to the left, the area because it just became unlivable. the few people, the minority who saved behind, we met some of them and they've told us that they've lost all their life savings

and they don't know what they're going to do. this is an impoverished society. already the country was on the brink of economic collapse before it is around escalated this war against has a loss in mid september, the reconstruction bills in the billions of dollars and even if they were to start, you know, working today to clean up all of this rob of, if it takes bonds, if not, 2 years for people to return to their homes. now people here of course are relieved, but at the same time, you know, they, they are worried because they do not trust the intentions of these really prime minister. benjamin. nothing yahoo especially when he said that he is well had the right to act militarily against as well off when they see any threats for inside stories that are for their noble to you. but let's bring it now. guess. now joining us from bainbridge is jamal kaufman, political commentator and member of the editorial board of our outbound news pipe in dayton. ohio is around the slim director of the conflict resolution program at

the middle east institute. and in belfast, as through mccaul, a non resident fellow at the threat institute of middle east policy. thank you very much for joining us here on the inside story. first of all, jamal, if i can as a stop with you, i mean many people, as we've heard the noise stories a new of us around the region, particularly, and living on it around if the cx 5 is actually going to hold one knows what chances do you right, so that is going to last at least the 60 days that have been outlined by joe biden . i think if you saw the face of a benjamin netanyahu yesterday, as he was giving the surrender speech, basically it was the key to speech. it's a, it's in the case of the wireless. i mean, obviously the us and the fans, the golden ways into it. and we heard said fox before. uh, is there a like,

sad thing, this deal that there's talk about the taking them to the un security council and up to the us will not be such a decision. so there seems to be, there seems to be in decatur separate this a ceasefire. last and this is the reserve, it is actually saying is really from the trouble continuing to their fire in southern level, not because they could not really accomplish anything militarily. despite the widespread destruction of somebody in the home, they were not able to hold any significant points of gains in any of the villages on the border. and the 15 model full of sold supported by a. ready line of arms and lessons from the us and the color from them also. and yet they fail to really any

significant parts of any village and level. we'll get on to some of the compromises the both sides of head to make when it comes to the safe spot in the money. but rather just for a simple job button says that this is designed to be a permanent in 2 hostilities. what chances of best and how of a confident potentially is that a job by that, the guy saying they're all in turn, the in here and vulnerabilities and this deal. and there are a lot of ask those questions, especially when it comes to how violations are going to be addressed. and what are the consequences that are going to be imposed on the part is that violate the terms of the agreement. and however, i think both sides and then supporters, meaning has by law and is your um and meaning iran and the united states are interested in getting this deed done. no, because dean would not have been made if it did not want that and nothing you all

went into his speech and 2 reasons. so that's the lives think why they wanted the deed. but i think the main reason is that, that army is exhausted and they needed the time to, to go to, you know, and, and this kind of gene does not have the same political consequences for less than yeah. who like it, how does that do the 11? is there any gene? it's not going to sink that then. yeah. who's governing coalition? how much is it? a deep wind sink? got nothing. you have a governing condition. and the last point i want to make is that this dean um, you know, is, is done, especially in terms of the israeli prime met. and the, because the incoming administration in the us trump has made it clear in many informants channels. and is there any officials themselves that he would like to see this conflict and before enters the white house? he did not say the same thing about him as a heads up, but he said this, he said that i mean it. informally,

he conveyed this impression to the so either prime minister, who you know is trying to investigate himself as well with mr. trump. of course, even though like you sign isn't yahoo in his royal ones once at this deal would have happened without them drew that doesn't mean that there's not gonna be tension around all of this. what do you think we should watch for signs of any strain? uh, over the coming week. so i mean we are the danger areas that things could boil over . do you think? i think to start off from this point was very, very important. the fact that this agreement doesn't sink netanyahu's government much like uh, an agreement with hamas wood considering the fact that he has to quote that create a coalition government with rather extreme members of the is really government that actually will see an agreement with how mazda is chalicia, it's important that i think any outward aggression by his butler towards israel

would be a particularly perilous point for re engaging and violence. considering the fact that netanyahu has set himself about as a strong mon and his speech, he talked about changing the face of the middle east. this is a very important post. october 7 is really position to show themselves as in order that we strong. so they are able to put the fear in to for reprisals into potential enemies. so considering the fact that now we have an agreement on the table that is essentially in all intents and purposes, exactly the same agreement, the end of the hostilities in 2006, which we then saw nearly 20 years of constant tension. i think that and then yeah, who will be interested in being a lot more forceful in reprisals against has been the all in any kind of border skirmishes and considering, but trump is coming into power. this will provide an x factor. undoubtedly he will

provide military and material support to is real, the loud of release freshening on, on extra engagement all possibilities in the future. and jim, uh your uh said a few moments ago, you talked about the lack of progress that it'd be, as rarely, military had actually made. that they were, that they didn't achieve anywhere near the goals that they had. sit house, i mean, but on the other side his blog has seemingly dropped. it's pledge, it's a tight spot and living on to one in gaza to ending the war. and guys, i mean, that is a large concession from his blog. i mean, would i give it really in a position to demand that? well, 1st of all, we have to wait and see what the upcoming data base to bring us. because we've already seen these chats are about to also an amendment to be able to stop the

hostilities in god. oh, so we saw the by the ministration paul up on the need to know what there is in cairo and they'll have to, uh, what's that? and the impact on the table and the to start the gotomeeting and then it also is there so as uh it's, it's not really written in the ceasefire deal with between them and the state is real. but there might be a tacit agreement that they use are still connected and we might see some progress . well, i piece or is increased cats are that regards on the front, so we shall wait to see a few days to see if it's actually completely separate that the front or the the views are connected. run to, along with you in peace cases. the liberties ami is supposed to make sure the area solving living on is as free of and fast as outside of live in east,

a control which that's really should have been done uh back in 2006 off to the last major was the agreement. that this one is based on. why do you think? will it be different this time? what do you think it will be different this time? and i think part of this is going to be and that's one of the lessons learned from the faint implementation of 17 o one. following the end of the 2006 for one of the lessons learned is that the implementation was not strong enough. and there was no monitoring making this, there was a mechanism which is a side by side making us of including unit in and is, are, and, and, and lebanon. but that did not work well. partly because of you and the units and forces even when they sold violation of the deed, you know, by has by law or by is it a but specifically by has, by law they, they, they,

they did not report them or they wouldn't force kind of reporting them because of steps to, to the force that the has been lucky to have uh, you know, have brought to the floor. and so what you have now is you have this expended monitoring mechanisms led to by a us security expert involving friend security experts involving lebanese to present that those involving or so is there any way to present that along with the u. s. and there are clear lines of where the forces have to withdrawal the lives where they swear it is. have to withdrawal. that is a face with the roll up. is there any forces that is at face withdrawal offices by law forces and this is got it. pat, it's going to have big technology abilities to be able to monitor all of these developments in, in the south in a much more i hope to say timely manner. then was the case um,

in the past. that's one second. i think we haven't seen the annex that was part of the agreement, which include the guarantees or that sure is by the us to is read a freedom of movement or of intervention in case that with violation by his well. but i was, i think where we are heading next is in a, in it and it, and it kind of of a low level of conflict akin to what we have seen in syria by is around meaning is we're as since a southern ward and syria has had the ability and the ability to go and hit as well as all goods. i have just you thought get into the as well. right? i think you are going to see the same. the question is, has bottle of them, but i need to know against northern is read, but i think that's what's, what's going to happen. and that's one of the assurance that is given is that any time by nations have been have

a code and they have not been addressed by the lebanese military. they will have freedom of mind. we're going to go into and try to address these violation themselves. okay, but also the problem is that the violates it is not going to be on this is below it is going to be the violate that as well as has been the case in the past. and then the agreement is left me about what sanctions or what, what consequences are going to be imposed on is, are as if it went to violate. but you yeah, true. i just wanna say uh with his philosophy just a moment. i mean, how much damage, how much lost and the damage has, is well actually done to his blah and can and will by try and re on themselves and regroup off to this a. well, i think it's almost a certainty that they can and will continue to re armed themselves as well as it's a certainty. the fact that there has been a significant amount of damage done to physically to the organization, but perhaps even more so to its reputation. the fact is that his bottom line sets itself apart as the resistance to israel. and as you rightly mentioned earlier,

this potential nebulous, the coupling from uh, from the, the wider palestinian um a conflict is potentially a damaging one to it's an motif as a resistance. so how do you research yourself in that domain is likely to point to the lebanese who have seen the destruction of the last 2 months on said that we as has molar retain the need to arm on to patrol the south. i'm to protect the, the land in their words, from any is really aggression. and i just wanted to touch on run this point again. the fact is that we have seen a disengaged international community the last year. not enforce of any kind of measure of red lines. any red lines that has been set down by the us or any other actors has been trampled on by israel to the boat. most new diplomatic censure at all. the fact is that this cease fire comes after the icy seas warrant for arrest

for netanyahu, which is probably not coincidence. the fact is that they get this real continue to use tactics of words that have landed in hot water with the i, c c. and also that would have been an encouraging point for them to get a deal done to ensure that there is an added value in terms of any kind of a prosecution or arrest in the hague. and also i have to mention the last leave that, that francis roland. this as a monitor comes potentially off the back of the goose eating with the israel, that it will not push for or any arrest warrant or trying of netanyahu in the hague, which is also an incredibly damaging precedent for international liberal uh humanitarian law. on order to potentially c as round of correctly mentioned, could potentially in bolen israel to break the terms of disagreement under

a spurious or a evidence or very, very little evidence. so we really find ourselves relieve that. the immediate bombing has stopped, but we found that a precipice for potentially outlined and further conflict considering. and the last point don't make is that there is a border negotiation to call the potential status of the ship out of farms is up or potentially given over to israel. this might read night conflict in this front. uh, almost instantaneous. yeah. so many repercussions of, of this did to my low, i want to get took a very briefly about the political situation within living on them in the living, these prime minister and, and a speaker of both cooling for confusion and solidarity right now. but i mean, living on this and everyone knows it's politically unstable. there are significant divisions in regards to his belie what's your assessment on,

on what the future holds politically, with and living on now? well, obviously there's gonna be a change in the way and then they'll come to see looks and handle. we are faced with the complete the failure of stages, 2 issues. we have them they can see at the pregnancy, the republican that have been for over a year. the most do and there is uh, uh, the really the basis on which shows that let me use the, uh see, has been bill is she, uh no there is. it needs to be visits all of that. and you can revisit the 5 of course, which uh, ended the civil war, 1990. uh, because it obviously does not work. it's left to expand, stayed where they could not uh, not really function at all the division country. so i knew the

national bank, it is necessary when they go for it. i don't know. i don't see it happening immediately, but it's a necessity if there is a future for the new state. yeah, i just wanna talk about the live in these ami, briefly around the, i mean on the funded isn't really in a position to, to enforce the 10s of, of disagreement and keep both keep the, both sides on us. i mean, to live in these defense middle, seriously, the 10000 troops are going to be deployed to the south. i mean, does the army even really have the capability in the finances to do this and what outside help will it actually need? uh yes, at the moment, i don't think they have the capabilities to assume all but its possibilities that disagreements, places on the shoulders. i think the army has to put it according to the political

consensus. that's going to be the, you know, the, the 1st and for tens prerequisite for the army to do what it's asked to do. and i think that is now a political consensus, including my by has, by law and among all the parties that the army is going to do. this one is going to go in and, you know, want to do some offers on between the economy and the blue line and will, and because by law is not going to be. but i think that at least for the short term is one that has to be of challenges internally organization. they need to address, but also uh you know, within the country. so, but what's going to happen is that, along with this agreement, you are going to see commitment by that it's a nation coming that to particularly press the u. s. and many of the other countries to really search aid to the army. and they, they need to be assertive in terms of manpower. they have men power shortages right now to be able to send 10000 tubes to the south and also keep peace on the other borders. that's one. and they need to be search in training and equipment and

capacities. i think that's what has come with funding. the problem i'm, i'm seeing right now is that all these commitments have been made by it ministration in the u. s. that is leaving in less than 2 months. and so the question is that this is going to be quite heavy lift going forward by the incoming administration. and i don't know if the trump administration will have the team in place by january to be able to carry this heavy lift in a very could you can transition period during which this, this dean is going to go through immediately. yeah, i know, as we know, donald trump is very much focusing domestically uh, what is happening in the united states in true if we can just stay with the us. so, and it's rolled here. i mean, joe biden has just, uh, just before we were filming this tweeted saying that are coming to is the united states will make another push with to kia egypt catseye and as royal as well as others to trying to achieve

a ceasefire and gaza with the captives released and an end to the board without from us in power, given that his start off filed off to 14 months to get anything remotely like this across the line. how realistic is it that he could achieve that with less than 2 months ago with his presidency? i don't think it's realistic at all and i'm afraid to speak as pessimistic pessimistically as i um, currently the fact is that nothing. yeah. who remains the, the key operator and all of this. and quite frankly, who's his political survival. and certainly his political coalition rests on his ability to a completely route home us from dallas. and also, quite frankly, to appease the extreme right in his own coalition. which sees gaza as a potential place of re settlement on this homeless hasn't been routed, then that is a non starter from the get go. not additionally the,

this is that benjamin netanyahu has been allowed to operate in this space for the last year because of the disengagement. and the continued on wavering support of, of western doctors. just burrell said, owing to lamented that there was no forest capable of telling nothing. yeah. what to do is painting the false. yes. the fact is that there are a number of different economic levers, and it's not even going so far as sanctioning the, the is really government. but economic levers such as denials. what then sales to israel that would actually have a tangible impact. now whether or not this old ris pharmacies, virus on the fact that the west shouldn't be willing, is willing to actually employ these letters. if it is not, then i'm afraid that i would patch my bet, that it's more likely to see continued violence and gossip. okay,

we'll have to leave today, we've run out of time, but tomorrow around the injury. thank you so much for being part of this discussion on inside. so we really, we really do appreciate your insight. thank you. thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting a website. that's l just here adults. com and for further discussion goes, well facebook page, that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. a handle is at i. j. inside story. to me, tell mccrae and the whole team here, bye for now. the fits the fastest expansion of legalized gambling and us history. with sports fights at the center. you're not a sports fan anymore unless you're dealing on the game. fault lines examines the surgeon petting and the impact on those suffering from its addiction. just didn't

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stories, the good, the bad. i've been asking the people allow us into their lives, dignity and democracy. asked me to tell the stories, the overall matheson and joe had the top stories on how to 0. these really managers and honest restrictions on lebanese residents returning to their homes in the south. it's released this map showing an area which it says people are not allowed to enter until further notice. elsewhere have in southern lebanon sizes, and families have been returning to what's left of their homes. so as far ending the fighting between israel as of all that is now and it's 2nd day, more than a year from bob and to buy these really metal tray as forcibly the space $1200000.00 people mostly from southern 11 on.