of the people 11 or picking up the pieces after nearly 14 months of war. the pause and hostilities has renewed a push to end israel's genocide and gauze on could the 11 on cease fire agreement be a step towards broader regional please. this is inside story. the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm getting you navigate them a day after announcing the cease fire 11 on us, president joe biden said he would now be focusing on gaza in a post on social media. he said his administration would work again with international partners to end the war at the hearts of the tension in the middle east. cut. tar and egypt have shown willingness to join the negotiations on from us as indicated. it's open to discussions about an agreement that would lead to the withdrawal off is really troops and the real and complete prisoner exchange. but it's really military is relentless and it's a tax across the gaza strip. so will that violence the rail washington's goals? or could the, as in hostilities and loving on the sign of things to come in,

the region will delve deeper into these questions. but 1st, this reports from axles i'm of which you deliver nice town of tire people are returning home. the seas fire has brought some relief to the south of border the whole life of the i'm the 1st person, the city of tied to clean my house because i have no other place to stay. so i'm forced to do this. once i finish cleaning, even if i had to put blankets around to stay in my house, i will stay in my house. i have no other shelter. thank god. we say that as long as we have sites while many 11 on our celebrating in gaza, double barden and continue unabated and wild is really military target schools, hospitals and shelters. regional powers are trying to broker piece,

then i was not a default. and we did that to you, we discussed the truth agreement 11, and we express our hope that disagreement will result in a real ceasefire. and also its effect will extend to the cause of strip ending this human suffering as soon as possible and have destin on good in the city of the us. so we talked about the sincere and tireless egyptian could sorry, efforts that continued for more than a year in order to quickly reach a deal that would guarantee an immediate cease fire and stop the blood shut of the brotherly palestinian people with the release of all hostages and the number of palestinian prisoners the cease fire and lebanon marks the end of 14 months. so has still peace between israel and has bought for gaza. it made me more intense fighting ahead. guessing i was left alone. i mean them. so this way, this will have all the time and resources to find the guidance. how my says it respects as follows, decision but its own attempts to secure a truce,

have sold inside israel deep political divisions, handler peace efforts, right? twink ministers are pushing for preventive changes in gaza, including controversial resettlement plans when it comes to because of the given meant these way. the government itself is a union obviously want to continue the war for different reason is not typically they want to achieve victory and guys because they want to use the war in order to achieve political aims within this little society. the last pause and fighting wasn't november last year. it's so how most release 105 is really captive that week . long grasp which remains the only successful troops of the war. but philistines are still hoping for a breakthrough with our law, say that god willing a similar truth will happen here as well. because people are suffering. everyone is living in tone, tens without food, and completes the,

deprived of the basic necessities of life. but with his riley crowd in error operations and testifying and to humanitarian crisis. deepening, that breakthrough seems increasingly distant access, i'm of which out to 0 for inside story. okay, let's bring it on. just joining us from paris, we have nadine 40 who's the executive director of the era reform initiative on the 11 east human rights lawyer into ron as professor mohammed moran g, who is a professor at the university of to ron. he also advised that uranian team during international negotiations that result landmark deal on the countries nuclear program. and over in washington dc, we have a special ed smiles who's a senior and diplomatic correspondence at the house post. he's writing a book about gaza and the bite and administration as well. welcome to you all. thanks so much for your time, professor moran. the. the big question now is where does this leave the situation in gaza? do you believe is that there was real momentum now?

to get a ceasefire in gaza and, and by whom it remains to be seen. the is there any regime has an army that's exhausted. and the international community is outraged with the across the globe. there's right of these are despise in way in a way in which i have never seen before. but of course the real issue is what nothing yahoo, lots and nothing yahoo needs be or to continue to his own personal benefit. he is fearful of being sidelined and then take him to jail for protection charges. but uh, from, as we've heard, wants this to end before he comes to power and bind in may have his own calculations. it is possible that people in the binding team would like to see this

content in because many in the democratic party feel that nothing else who did have something to do with their, their feet and the election. so while they are pro is family, but they may not be so much pro netanyahu. that's exactly what i wanted to ask you, professor mironda, because one bite and says that his administration would quote, make another push for a gaza cease fire. look for people and gaza, obviously that see, sorry, can't come soon enough. but i suppose the question is still, why is by them saying this now? again, i don't know what's going on in the white house, but if there is an incentive for me to you on hold for biden, to impose a ceasefire, in my opinion, it has more to do with their dislike of his dislike and the people around to him. for their dislike of nothing yahoo that they support this might be regime, but they do blame. many do blame nothing yahoo for the failure of harris and for

the failure of the democrats in the house and in the senate. and again that the issue there is also the issue of trump nothing. yahoo knows that the trunk wants this and to go before he comes to power. so there could be both dividing the team and the trunk team, pushing them for a cease fire of for different reasons. and the pressure on this way the machine continues to cease. fire is not clear if it will last as well as definitely preparing itself for the for potential next phase and the admin and then the rocks and elsewhere will continue in. iran will carry out its retaliation. weather as rainy as ours. swipe on the run. so there is still a lot going on. right. okay, we'll come to these points in a moment, but let me bring into the employee and nothing 40 you wrote on x would be a noun ceasefire for 11 on it's important to remember, garza,

we need renewed momentum for an immediate cease fire. so what will you be looking out for that suggest to you that there is indeed an honest, renewed commitment to get a ceasefire and gaza? i will be looking to see if uh some of the additional players i'm cleaning the key player in the us, but i agree with professor just before me, we don't really know how serious the us is and how much leverage they're willing to use when we create a momentum and will that momentum bring in additional players potentially are gulf states like saudi and others to make a bigger push to have a ceasefire in the the can also be in dynamic within the israel itself. if these really particularly feel that the cease fire with loving on allows is released to return back to their norris, their might. we might see domestic bush again for a deal with the guys up to release the hostages. so there will be

a bit of an oxygen sorta and space to kind of create new momentum which made corner to them. yeah. um, but really the, the, the main ball is in the us court. and that's what they, i mean for an attorney own self. and as professor merante was saying a moment ago, if he goes for a cease fire and gaza, then he's going to lose his government pretty much. that's possible. i mean, that's definitely a calculation, but it's a new who is also a political animal. so, you know, is there another deal within these really domestic politics that would allow him to do that? he's feeling emboldened by the 5 that trump one the elections. so he may have some leverage and that means every other is really domestic actors from the center and even parts of the last. and so i don't know, i mean many of us myself included road off uh within, you know, in the past. unfortunately, you still there, but i agree. i mean he is clearly not a peacemaker friday that and his grand government and himself uh,

are pushing uh, not only uh, continue to more but to actually settle parts. so because uh uh, so it will require a major should change miscalculation um, but were living in very uncertain uh time. so i'm still hopeful that perhaps we could see on the mountain where as well this sort of, that lead, diabolical, the dynamic currently dominating. go to the decision making and these real start shifting calculators as they see some benefit to the ceasefire with loving are quite as much as you say that the 11 on announcement has to be viewed in the context of right, the biden's broader policy. how so? so i think we need to understand this conflict in true the binding team and that sense of own legacy. right. so i talked to a lot of folks of the white house, soaks it across, is not metallic bossy. present by the same us sees themselves as

a foreign policy x. but par excellence, i think that's difficult for international audiences to understand, given the level of tests and destruction on his watch, often with us implicated. but that's really how he understands himself. and that's how his team plans to pitch themselves, going full, but these are people whose career on the over. so for them, what they've really seen green is they have supported israel to a huge degree, reading in an unprecedented we. but even for president from both parties have not a civilian casualties. have mounted by them has said i will continue weapons to israel inside and chest simultaneously with the non sci fi deal. the administration revealed another $700000000.00 is ready, weapons sale. so i think we need to see them the context of buying, permitting israel to go into a lab and on to cross one of his red lines. he had previously said, i don't want to see a warning light that on he get the thought to happen. he did allow hundreds of

civilians just about cousins to be killed with us by 3, as we know by the afraid is. and i think while he's, he's certainly probably not the sci fi agreements as a lot of states you've been on the other fingers crossed that bill last and save human lives. i think we have to see it in the context of shoes just basically not a lot of these. we have to see it in the context of empowering at yahoo and titus. suggesting suddenly a message that a military 1st strategy of the strategy that does not have a kind of sense of accountability for actions is acceptable and simultaneous. we have freedom in the context of this is not an agreement that is a use long or even last month. on agreement, that's a 60 the c 5. so it'd be seen present by and you would say, try to figure out your issues within this period. we haven't received them yet. as the, the other guest mention is use american leverage in a meaningful way to ensure that there is a trigger us in this deal. if we think about other people out agreements,

whether it's the wrong media deal that the customer on the was involved in other agreements, they're kind of, if you don't do this, show us what will happen. we haven't seen that from the us yet. right. and i think in the remainder of the, by the administration, west still extremely unlikely to see the us use its actual leverage and signs of weapons and diplomatic support for israel to enforce the sci fi in either let in on or casa. look at just are for, i mean, health health um some of our international viewers understand us who might be scratching their heads at this point saying look, the by the end of ministration. now seems to be pushing for a deal when it comes to gaza and buy them this touting this 11 on seas far agreement to sort of monumental but at the same time. and you were just mentioning this at the same time by announce a $680000000.00 arms package to israel. so how does that work? and for israel, does it have any incentive at all to stop the gaza war when it's constantly supplied with weapons by the us. so i, i do think it's hard for people to understand it. i,

i completely got that. i think to think about it from the us political context, the by the administration, sees themselves as close friends with israel, better allied to israel than any other administration of history. that is how they want to go down and how present biden wants to put on history. i think that's what you see discontinued about them supply. i think that's why you see the bottom team to talk about si size, talk about some of the entitled he's talked about that concerns, but stick to the same playbook that the hip hop truck, this conflict, and what we know about that the book is it's a p, but that's allowed again, a huge displacements, huge allegations of war crimes out a policy that but many would argue reading supporters of israel, even among the dr. kotik potty unbuttoned circles, would say, is this beneficial for even israel and long so right. the private says how underwriter, as far as the forward defense, some way to set you off collaborative 100 respond. but that's kind of how the, by demonstration see themselves. they've been to strategy very much from the onset

of the war, biding through a clear line against in any way, stopping the supply of american lab rates as well. i don't see that shifting. i do think that that very committed to the side. yeah. the israel salad and the us deal, which we can talk about a bit more. i think that's very much what i didn't see them succeed in these last 2 months. but your point about does that shifty is really so that the way the private and says that yahoo effectively tucked in football truck right? he did, he didn't, outright said, but he came to washington that was in the room when, when that yahoo was in the halls of congress. right. he came to washington supported by me, but what kind of created he was alive, even stuff with republican. but he with the expectation of the trump administration . okay, i'm going to come back to the point you made about the is really a so the us deal in a moment. but 1st let's just go back to professor moran. see when it comes to trump, what do you think his approach is going to be to the cause of war? and because there also seems to be a professor on the very real objectives,

by some of the settlers in israel to resettle a gaza. there is a belief that they themselves are waiting for trump. uh to get into power from has surrounded himself with um is really the 1st service and the statements that we're hearing, whether it's about ukraine or about palestine. the fact that so i don't think there's any reason to be optimistic of a trunk whatsoever. some do believe that maybe trump will use these people around him is bad cops and he'll behave differently. but that's not impossible, but i find that hi me unlikely given his pass record as well. but i think the, the most important issue for me is that the only reason why i see if i happened in black or not was because there's really these were being humiliated they couldn't take southern level not. and if they had gone further into 11 on,

then the ambush is, would it become more severe at the, the casualty is would have grown much higher because that's what has will i had prepared itself for so 11 on, all they could do was massacre people and slaughter people kill thousands of people . most of the people who died died in, in their homes or in the homes of other people who, who took them in and most of the communities that were supporting the resistance or were, were targeted. but god, so i think is different because does the, doesn't have the power of has one of course has, will not have the disadvantage. that western embassy isn't very rude or conspiring against it. western and you know, is what caught conspiring against it. and groups that were highlighted as well during the 1982 war people like samuel jazz and others who were involved in that stop running shots in the mastercard, showing 3500 palestinians and 70. she has these people were conspiring with western

embassies against them. so they have to watch their back, they have that difficulty, but they want a powerful force in the south. god say some is, is very different even though come us in this time, extra hot. i mean, we are here. all right, but we've seen what's happened to them over the last 14 months. and i don't think that in the united states has an any incentive to help the people guys or they couldn't care less about. uh, i do think that the only thing that could be an incentive for buying them is what i said has perhaps, perhaps, and his team of personal dislike formatting. yahoo! and in the case of talk, she's incentive, is that he wants a clean slate because he has a key to a key objectives given the united states. one is to view of what the, what the deep state, the f, b i, the c i a and all those people who are against them. and of course, the economic issue, which is approaching crisis point and to have the ukraine or the west asia

as a growing crisis, i think it is something that will prevent him from any chance of success. okay, let me bring into the him who the on the subject of has been the resistance movements on me by accepting the cessation of hostilities of just being described based obviously on resolution 1701. what do you think has been the strategic calculation was when it comes to the continued support of the palestinian resistance? look, i mean for me, it's clear the ceasefire agreement separate, perhaps permanently loving these files from the palestinian file. if you read it on its own terms, even though i think the i don't see any room for maneuvering for his beloved any more under the cease fire under 17 or one as enforced. i don't have to say a majority of lebanese wants to see if this dissociation so there's

a huge level of support and empathy for palestinians. but the vast majority of the news did not want to get militarily involved as part of that did it. um, as below was the most powerful actor, particularly i'm to say it has some sort of love to love it needs didn't have much of a say in it. a part of the big argument is below was got discovered, basically saying, i've established performer mutual. deterrence is real. that the turn seemed to hold on equally, but seemed to hold for about 10 or 11 months. and suddenly in september, it did it. um, you know, so i think today um, by the terms of the agreement um the has by law doesn't have much of a leeway to continue supporting homeless or the resistance in palestine military. i'm a professor, i'm around to uh, actually let me bring in um, as far as my,

because i so you want it to say something to this. but i just, i, i do think it's important to see us as he was pointing out that his beloved, this is just easily we get right. it does need to rebuild. and i think that's where we are looking at a longer time scenario here, where a question of kind of lebanese see kind of sign up paid institutions build a us support the lebanese military. will it kind of stop easily? so striking them as a repeat of the have done, i think these are the kind of open questions and i think that speaks to a bigger question with the trumpet ministration. last t is surrounded by iran hawks. he is fronted by people who are on the price for that and i think that's going to it's not going to necessarily box him in, but i think that's a question of how many fights this he wants it back. i mean from does want to do a huge economic restructuring. the u. s. he claims he wants to take on the federal bureaucracy and find a week to these institutions from within. we can any barfield against his own power

simultaneously? does he feel he wants to take on people who don't want him to be more conciliatory to what they're on and what's, what's other taxes and regions does he wants to take on people who are really skeptical of any investment and whatnot? natalie. okay. i think i'll bring it okay on the subject of her on professor rhonda . i mean this deal comes of course as the incoming us administration, trump could have a more hawkish position on iran and its allies in the region. but you also have a newer rating and presidents and now you have a new us administration. so click the 11 on ceasefire, then be a 1st step, perhaps to, to her on building some sort of dialogue or with a trump white house or not. if that means that the runway language should support for the palestinians and for hezbollah and for him also stymied your heart. and so i don't know, no, that's not going to happen. and if it means that the united states wants to ease tensions, so that the energy supplies from the persian gulf can continue, then that is of course, something that can be discussed if it's about the nuclear program,

as long as it runs sovereignty in its rights, are preserved in the wrong as peaceful nuclear program is preserved, that can be discussed as well. but it's, there are a number of issues. one is that a trump in the past has shown himself to be unpredictable. the united states, in general, is a country that does not abide by its commitments. it signs a piece of paper and when it deals its unnecessarily just throws it away and does something else. in that sense. this really isn't. the americans are more or less the same. and in fact, i would argue that this is byron southern level. non doesn't necessarily end anything because it could collapse any time. it would depend on the whims of people in, however, even especially nothing. yahoo! okay, but um, let me pay the 2nd time my apologies today to explain to my apology, prefers more onto it for the sake of time. i for one question to you and then uh, and it includes your final thoughts from you as far on the issue as in saudi is

real. uh us deal you were mentioning earlier. tell us what you are, but you've been learning about that from, from where you are in washington. absolutely. i think that's a real desire to buy some ministrations and get some kind of us saudi commitment that very much looking at those in the context of wanting to not only not the like and see if you've meant but kind of lost inside of the they've always thought this of this as a way to keep rush and china, i'm at least kind of a line savvy, a line of the country by cancer on. i think while that is a real determination by iran and its allies not to give up all the influence the are on the box, it in this moment. right. and i think the us would be making the case of pittsburgh last weekend. the authorities seem to a degree to have is kind of been a set that i think that's the argument that the meeting i don't have decided people that's necessarily by that it seemed that to be more conciliatory, but that's kind of given to us as okay. professor moran, the responds in 30 seconds and then nothing for the final thought to you. i think

this other way around, i think the west is much weaker than it was in 2016. and so as the united states is, randy regime is much weaker. it is globally isolated to the i. c. c has issue to arrest warrants. we live in a very different world from 2016, and i think trump will find out the hard way. everyone has been weakened by war, but i think the west has been weakened more than anyone else, especially because it has conflicts going on in ukraine high with china as well. nadeem a final thought from you on. i mean, we've been discussing what this means for gaza as well as the region, but what about for 11 ons political climates? i mean the cessation of hostilities is now in place. we'll see if it holds, but we also know that the speaker and anybody has called the parliament session to elect the president on january 9. so what does this mean for 11 on so? sure me very briefly look level is that across roads and there really to pass a one is the country was already very, very we very divided more than

a year ago. i mean even got more divided now. so we have 2 options. either this, the spider on blocks the political dynamic and the country allows for the election of a president that is able to bring all the parties, including hezbollah, to have a meaningful conversation about pressing the reset button. and bringing has been locked into the full of the state, but not just bring it as well as the default of the state, letting the lebanese get on with the reforms that they need to do and that they've wanted to do since 2019 to build actually a proper state that would be the ideal pass. that's going to be hard because we have a lot to do with less from rebuilding the country, dealing with the bankruptcy across the country. so supporting the army, deploying the army, helping to displace the wounded, the families who lost uh, their main bread winters. the other past is we continue and this sort of uh, being

a situation where everyone is blog as well as we can. but it's not completely out of the equation. he's still a very, it's probably still the major political player as it does. hezbollah wants to join the rest of the 11, he's in building 11 east date, or will it continue and his previous posture of being the state within the state that wants to retain the decision of why do we go to war? why do we have these to retain a veto on who should be the president and prevent the thing? because i've been the state of being present in the south. i think this is the real splendid mentally. almost every special question for 11 on today. the ceasefire gives us some breathing space to maybe look each other in the eye and start these difficult conversations. okay, we'll leave it there and then hopefully uh well someone mirandi and ask about it sha had i thank you so much for joining us. thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. elgin 0. com, and for further discussion and go to our facebook page. it's facebook dot com, forward slash

a inside story. turn the conversation on x or handle is inside story for myself and whole team here. and so how, thanks for watching, bye bye. for now, the many in taiwan believe a chinese invasion isn't all to be your friends and some are preparing the military is practicing. i didn't know the island a 25. you diligently trains that civil defense costs be good to be come back to read for the day. and she hopes would never have to cross generational experiences . swain's tactics, which was divided straight on and just either the

there's no limit to how a dream contains sta in your own adventure. no counter. everything's the the i'm the pocket. this is the news life though, coming up in the next 60 minutes. blevins army accused is rarely violating a c spot while these very 5 minutes to assess his troops are ready for rule. if the troops breaks down, breaking through the pieces,

people will turn to southern lebanon to find out what's left of the homes.