the the . ringback the people in lebanon are picking up the pieces after nearly 14 months of war. the pause and hostilities has renewed a push to end. israel's genocide and gaza put the 11 on cease fire agreement to be a step towards broader regional please. this is inside story. the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm getting you navigate on a day after announcing the cease fire in 11 on us, president joe biden said he would now be focusing on gaza in a post on social media. he said his administration would work again with international partners to end the war at the hearts of the tension in the middle east. cuts are, and egypt have shown willingness to join the negotiations. and how much has indicated it's open to discussions about an agreement that would lead to the withdrawal off is really troops and the real incomplete prisoner exchange. but there's really middle tree is relentless and it's a tax across the gaza strip. so will that violence, the rail, washington's goals, or the pause in hostilities in 11 on the assign of things to come in the region will delve deeper into these questions. but 1st, this reports from axels, i'm of which it's the lebanese town of tire people are returning home.

the ceasefire has brought some relief to the south of border life. the i'm the 1st person in the city of tied to clean my house because i have no other place to stay . so i'm forced to do this. once i finish cleaning, even if i hate to put blankets around to stay in my house, i will stay in my house. i have no other shelter. thank gold. we say that as long as we have sites while many lebanon are celebrating in gaza, double barn, and continues unabated and wild is really military target schools, hospitals, and shelters. regional powers are trying to broker piece the default the seed. we discussed the truth agreement 11, and we express our hope that disagreement will result in

a real ceasefire. and also its effect will extend to the gaza strip, ending this human suffering as soon as possible. and if you do have this now i'm, i'm good in missouri, i'm a thought a us. so we talked about this sincere and tireless egyptian could sorry, efforts that continued for more than a year in order to quickly reach a deal that would guarantee an immediate cease fire and stop the bloodshed of the brotherly palestinian people's shop. was the release of all hostages, and the number of palestinian prisoners the ceasefire in lebanon marks the end of 14 months. so his silly beast between israel and hezbollah for gaza. it made me more intense fighting ahead. guys, and i was left alone. i mean them. so these ways we have all the time and resources to find the guidance. how much says it respects his full as decision but its own attempts to secure a truce, have sold inside israel, deep political divisions, hender peace efforts, right? when ministers are pushing for permanent changes in gaza,

including controversial or re settlement plans when it comes to because of the given meant these way. the government itself is eating and obviously want to continue. the war for different reason is not typically they want to achieve victim guys because they want to use the war in order to achieve political aims within the as well. the society, the last pause and fighting was in november last year. it's so how most release 105 is really captive, that we can grasp. it remains the only successful troops of the war. but philistines are still hoping for a break through with all. busy god willing and similar truths will happen here as well because people are suffering. everyone is living in tone tends without food and completes the, deprived of the basic necessities of life. but with is rarely crowd in error operations and testifying and to humanitarian crisis. deepening. that breakthrough

seems increasingly distant access. i'm will reach out to 0 for inside story. ok, let's bring it on. just joining us from paris. we have nadine 40 who's the executive director of the era reform initiative and the lebanese human rights lawyer into ron . as professor mohammed moran deed was a professor at the university of to ron, he also advise that uranian team during international negotiations that result landmark deal on the countries nuclear program. and over in washington dc, we have a question. i had a smiles who's a senior and diplomatic correspondence at the house post. he's writing a book about gaza and the bite and administration as well. welcome to you all. thanks so much for your time. a professor moran the. the big question now is, where does this leave the situation? and gosh, do you believe that there was real momentum now to get a ceasefire in gaza and, and by whom it remains to be seen the as rainy regime. it has an army that's

exhausted. and the international community is outraged as the across the globe. so there's rarely use are despise in way, in a way in which i have never seen before. but of course, the real issue is what? nothing yahoo, lots and nothing yahoo needs the war to continue for his own personal benefit. he is fearful of being sidelined and then take him to jail for perhaps some charges. but uh, from, as we've heard, wants this to end before he comes to power and bite and may have his own calculations. it is possible that people in the binding team would like to see this content in because many in the democratic party feel that nothing else who did have something to do with their,

their feet in the election. so while they are pro is fairly, but they may not be so much problem. nothing. yahoo, that's exactly what i wanted to ask you, professor moran did because went by and says that his administration would quote, make another push for a gaza ceasefire. look for people in gauze, obviously that see, sorry, can't come soon enough. but i suppose the question is still, why is by them saying this now? again, i don't know what's going on in the white house, but if there is an incentive for me to you on hold for biden, to impose a ceasefire, in my opinion, it has more to do with the of their dislike of his dislikes and the people around him for their dislike of nothing yahoo! base support this may be regime, but they do blame many do blame nothing yahoo for the failure of harris and for the failure of the democrats in the house and in the senate. and again that the issue

there is also the issue of trump nothing. yahoo knows that the trunk wants this and to go before he comes to power. so there could be both dividing the team and the trunk team, pushing them for a cease fire of for different reasons. and the pressure on this way the machine continues to cease. fire is not clear if it will last as well as definitely preparing itself for the for potential next phase and the admin and then the rocks and elsewhere will continue in. iran will carry out its retaliation. weather as rainy as ours. swipe on the run. so there is still a lot going on. right. okay, we'll come to these points in a moment, but let me bring into the employee and nothing 40 wrote on x would be announced ceasefire for 11 on it's important to remember, garza, we need renewed momentum for an immediate cease fire. so what will you be looking out for that suggest to you that there is indeed an honest,

renewed commitment to get a ceasefire and gaza? i will be looking to see if uh, some of the additional players, i'm clearly me. the key player is the us. but i agree with professor just before me, we don't really know how serious the us is and how much leverage they're willing to use when they create a momentum. and will that momentum bring in additional players, potentially our gulf states like saudi and others to make a bigger push to have a ceasefire in the us up. there can also be in dynamic within the israel itself. if these really particularly feel that'd be a ceasefire with loving on louse is released to return back to their norris. there might we might see a domestic bush again for a deal with his eyes up to release the hostages. so that will be a bit of an oxygen sorta end space to kind of create new momentum which made corner to them. yeah. um, but really the, the, the main ball is in the us court,

and that's what they mean for an attorney own self. and as professor morality was saying a moment ago, if he goes for a cease fire and gaza, then he's going to lose his government pretty much. that's possible. i mean, that's definitely a calculation, but then yeah, who is also a political animal. so, you know, is there another deal within these really domestic politics that would allow him to do that? he's feeling emboldened by the 5, the trump one, the elections. so he may have some leverage and that means every other is really domestic actors from the center and even parts of the left. and so i don't know, i mean many of us myself included, wrote off, and then you know, in the past unfortunately, you still there, but i agree. i mean, he is clearly not a peacemaker friday that and his current government and himself uh, are pushing uh, not only uh, continue to more but to actually settle parts of it as a, as it will require

a major should change miscalculation. um, but were living in very uncertain uh time. so i'm still hopeful that perhaps we could see i'm a mental where as well this sort of that lead, diabolical, the dynamic currently dominating. go to the decision making in the israel uh starts shifting calculus. if they see some benefit to the ceasefire, would love in our court as much as you say that the 11 on announcement has to be viewed in the context of right, the biden's broader policy. how so? so i think we need to understand this conflict in through the binding team and that sense of i would like to see. right, so i talked to a lot of folks of the lighthouse folks across the democratic party president biden very much see themselves as a foreign policy expert, bar axles. i think that's a difficult for international audiences to understand, given the level of tests and destruction on his watch,

often with the last implicated. but that's really how he understands himself. and that's how his team plans to pitch themselves, going full. but these are people whose career on the over. so for them, what they've really seen during is they have supported israel to a huge degree reading and an unprecedented we. but even for president from both parties have not a civilian casualties. have mounted by them. have said i will continue weapons to israel inside and chest simultaneously with the non sci fi deal. the administration revealed another $700000000.00 is ready, weapons sale. so i think we need to see it in the context of biting the meeting is route to go into a lab and on to cross one of his red lines. she had previously said, i don't want to see a warning light that on she get the thought to happen. he did allow hundreds of civilians as about husbands to be killed with us by 3 as we know by the afraid is. and i think while he's, he's certainly probably not the sci fi agreements as

a legacy achievement on, on the fingers crossed that will last and save human lives. i think we have to see it in the context of shoes just basically not a lot of these. we have to see it in the context of empowering at yahoo is titus. suggesting suddenly a message that a military 1st strategy of the strategy that does not have a kind of sense of accountability for actions is acceptable and simultaneous. we have freedom. the context of this is not an agreement that is a use long or even month to month on agreement. that's a 60 d. c fire. so would be seen present by and you would say, try to figure out your issues within this period. we haven't received them yet. as the, the on the got mentioned is use american leverage in a meaningful way to ensure that there is a treat uh, in this deal. if we think about other people out agreements, whether it's the wrong we have to deal with the customer on the was involved in other agreements that are kind of if you don't do this, show us what will happen. we haven't seen that from the us yet, right?

and i think in the remainder of the, by the administration, west still extremely unlikely to see the us use its actual leverage and tons of weapons and diplomatic support for israel to enforce the sci fi in either let in on all casa, look at just are for i mean health health um, some of our international viewers understand us who might be scratching their heads at this point saying look, the by the end of ministration. now seems to be pushing for a deal when it comes to gaza and buy them. this touting this 11 on sees far agreement to sort of monumental but at the same time. and you were just mentioning this at the same time by announce a $680000000.00 arms packets to israel. so how does that work? and for israel, does it have any incentive at all to stop the cause of war when it's constantly supplied with weapons by the us. so i, i do think it's hard for people to, it's not i, i completely got that. i think to think about it from the us political context, the by the administration, sees themselves as close friends with israel,

better allied to israel than any other administration of history. that is how they want to go down and how present by wants to put on history. i think that's why you see this continue to let them supply. i think that's why you see the buying team to talk about si size, talk about some of the entitled he's talked about that concerns, but stick to the same playbook that the hip hop prop this conflict. and what we know about up the book is it's a p, but that's loud. again, huge displacements, huge allegations of all crimes, out a policy that but maybe you would argue reading supporters of israel, or even among the dr. kotik potty unbuttoned circles. would say, is this beneficial for even israel and long so, right. the private says how underwriter, as far as the full, the defense is set you off collaborative 100 address lines. but that's kind of how the, by the administration see themselves. they've been to strategy very much from the onset of the war by them through a clear line against in any way stopping the supply of american lab rates as well. i don't see that shifting. i do think that that very committed to this idea,

the israel salad and the us deal, which we can talk about a bit more. i think that's very much. why am i going to see them succeed in these last 2 months? but you're going to the desktop shifty is really so that the way the private and says that yahoo effectively con themes that all from right he did. he didn't outright see it, but he came to washington that was in the room when, when that yahoo was in the halls of congress right. he came to washington supported by them, but was kind of clear that he was a 90 himself with republican party, with the expectation of the trump administration. okay, i'm going to come back to the point you made about the is really a so to us still in a moment, but 1st let's just go back to professor moran. see when it comes to trump, what do you think his approach is going to be to the cause of war? and because there also seems to be profess them are on the very real objectives by some of the settlers in israel to resettle a gaza. there is a belief that they themselves are waiting for trump. uh to get into power from has

surrounded himself with um is one of the 1st service and the statements that we're hearing, whether it's about ukraine or about palestine. the fact that or so i don't think there's any reason to be optimistic about trump whatsoever. some do believe that may be trump will use these people around him is bad cops and he'll behave differently. but that's not impossible, but i find that hi me unlikely given his past record as well. but i think the, the most important issue for me is that the only reason why sci fi happened in 11 on was because there's ran these were being humiliated, they couldn't take sided 11 on. and if they had gone further into 11 on, then the ambush is, would it become more severe? the, the casualty is would have grown much higher because that's what has bullet had prepared

itself for. so 11 on, all they could do was massacre people and slaughter people. carol, thousands of people, most of the people who died, died in, in their homes or in the homes of other people who, who took them in. and mostly communities that were supporting the resistance or were, were targeted. but the god, so i think is different because god doesn't have the power of has been of course, has, will not have the disadvantage. that western embassy isn't very rude or conspiring against it. western and you know, is what caught conspiring against it. and groups that were highlighted as well during the 1982 war people like samuel jazz and others who were involved in their site. brian shots, in the mass of torturing 2500 policy news and 70. she has these people were conspiring with western embassies against them, so they have to watch their back. they have that difficulty, but they want a powerful force in the south. god say some is, is very different,

even though how mazda and his mom is john. i mean, very hero it, but we've seen what's happened to them over the last 14 months. and i don't think that in the united states has an any incentive to help the people guys or they couldn't care less a, but uh, i do think that the only thing that could be an incentive for buying them is what i said has perhaps perhaps, and his team of personal dislike formatting yahoo! and in the case of talk she's incentive, is that he wants a clean slate because he has a key to a key objective in the united states. one is to view of what the, what the deep state, the f, b i, the c i a and all those people who are against them. and of course, the economic issue, which is approaching crisis point and to have the ukraine or the west asia as a growing crisis, i think it is something that will prevent him from any chance of success. okay, let me bring into the inquiry on this subject of hezbollah and the resistance

movements only by accepting the cessation of hostilities of just being described based obviously on resolution 1701. what do you think has been the strategic calculation? was when it comes to the continued support of the palestinian resistance. look, i mean for me it's clear the ceasefire agreement separate, perhaps permanently loving these files from the palestinian far if you read it on its own terms. even though i think the and i don't see any room for maneuvering for hezbollah any more under the ceasefire under 1701 as in force. i don't have to say a majority of lebanese wants to see this association. so there's a huge level of support in empathy for palestinians, but the vast majority of the news did not want to get militarily involved as well.

i did it. um, as below was the most powerful actor, particularly obviously it has some sort of the dilemma needs. didn't have much of a say in it. a part of the big argument is below was got discovered basically saying, i've established the former mutual, the tourist is real. that the turn seemed to hold on equally, but seemed to hold for about 10 or 11 months. and suddenly in september, it didn't. um, you know, so i think today um by the terms of the agreement um the has butler doesn't have much of a leeway to continue supporting homeless or the resistance in palestine military. i'm a professor, i'm around the actually let me bring in um, as far from i'd say because i so you want it to say something to this but i just, i do think it's important to see us as he was pointing out that his beloved this is

just easily, we can write, it does need to rebuild. and i think that's where we are looking at a longer time scenario here, where a question of time the lebanese see kind of sign up, paid institutions build a us support the lebanese military. will it kind of stop easily, so striking them as a repeat of the have done? i think these are the kind of open questions. and i think that speaks to the good question with the trump administration, where he is surrounded by iran hawks. he is fronted by people who are on the price for that and i think that's going to it's not going to necessarily box him in. but i think that's a question of how many fights this he wants to back. i mean from does want to do a huge economic restructuring. the us, he claims he wants to take on the federal geography and find a week to these institutions from within. we can any barfield against his own power simultaneously? does he feel he wants to take on people who don't want him to be more conciliatory towards or on or towards other factors in the region? does he wants to take on people who are really skeptical of any investment or not?

not going to be okay. i think i'll bring it okay on the subject off or on, profess i'm around to, i mean, this deal comes, of course, as the incoming us administration, trump could have a more hawkish position on iran and its allies in the region. but you also have a newer rating and presidents and now you have a new us administration. so click the 11 on ceasefire, then be a 1st step, perhaps to, to her on building some sort of dialogue or with a trump white house or not. if that means that the wrong way language should support for palestinians and for hezbollah, and for him us as time each are hard and so i don't know, no, that's not going to happen. and if it means that the united states wants to ease tensions, so that the energy supplies from the persian gulf can continue, then that is of course, something that can be discussed if it's about the nuclear program, as long as you run some sovereignty in its rights are preserved in the wrong as peacefully up the program is preserved, that can be discussed as well. but it's,

there are a number of issues. one is that a trump in the past has shown himself to be unpredictable. the united states in general, is a country that does not abide by its commitments. it signs a piece of paper and when it deals its unnecessarily, it just throws it away and does something else in that sense. that is really, isn't the americans are more or less the same. and in fact, i would argue that this is byron southern level. non doesn't necessarily end anything because it could collapse any time. it would depend on the whims of people in however, even especially nothing. yahoo, okay, but um, let me jump, i don't think that gets hi my apologies today to expand my apologies for, for some run through it for the sake of time. i for one question to you and then it includes your final thoughts from you as far on the issue of society is real us deal you were mentioning earlier. tell us what you are, but you've been learning about that from, from where you are in washington. absolutely. i think that's

a real desire to buy some ministrations and get some kind of us saudi commitment that very much looking at those in the context of wanting to not only have a like and see if you've meant but kind of lost inside of the they've always thought this of this as a way to keep rush or, and try it out and released kind of a line savvy align other countries like cancer on. i think while that's a, that's a real determination by iran and its allies not to give up all the influence they are on the box at this moment. right. and i think the us will be making the case of pittsburgh last weekend. this res, seem to a degree to have is kind of been a set that and i think that's the argument that the meeting i don't have decide people that society by that is seem that'd be more conciliatory. but the given to us is okay. professor miranda responds in 30 seconds and then nadine for the final thought to you. i think it's the other way around. i think the west is much weaker than it was in 2016, and so as the united states is riley regime is much weaker. it is globally isolated

. the i c. c has issue to arrest warrants. we live in a very different world from 2016, and i think the top will find out the hard way. everyone has been weakened by war, but i think the west has been weakened more than anyone else, especially because it has conflicts going on in ukraine high with china as well. nadeem a final thought from you on. i mean, we've been discussing what this means for gaza as well as the region, but what about for 11 ons political climates? i mean this, this ation of how still this ease is now in place. we'll see if it holds, but we also know that the speaker and of anybody has called the parliament session to elected president on january 9. so what does this mean for 11 on a sure me very briefly look level right across the roads. and there really to pass one is the country was already very, very, we very divided more than a year ago. i mean even got more divided now. so we have 2 options. either this, the spider on blocks the political dynamic and the country allows for the election

of a president that is able to bring all the parties including has by law to have a meaningful conversation about pressing the reset button and bringing has but look into the fold of the state, but not just bring it as well as the default of the state, letting the lebanese get on with the reforms that they need to do and that they've wanted to do since 2019 to build actually a proper state. that would be the ideal pass is going to be hard because we have a long to do with less from rebuilding the country, dealing with the bankruptcy across the country. so supporting the army, deploying the army, housing that displays the wounded, the families who lost their main bread winters. the other pass is we continue and the sort of, uh, being a situation where everyone is blog as well as weekend, but it's not completely out of the equation. they still are very, it's probably still the major political player, as it does,

has been the one to join the rest of the love in the east, in building 11 east date, or will continue and his previous posture of being the stage with an estate that wants to retain that decision, oh, why do we go to war? why do we have these to retain a veto on who should be the president and prevent the thing? because i've been a state of being present in the south. i think this is the real spend a mentally, almost existential question for 11 on today. the ceasefire gives us some breathing space to maybe look each other in the eye and start these difficult conversations. okay, we'll leave it there and then hopefully let somebody mirandi and ask about it show heads. i thank you so much for joining us. thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. it's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. join the conversation on x are handlers inside story for myself and whole team here. and so how, thanks for watching bye bye. for now the

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tom shay come on the award for translation and international understanding from the arabic language to mankind, the ssl to 0. i am tired of hearing obligated to check on your world headlines. at least 29 people have been killed and is really attacks on the slate. off the refugee camp and gossip is really fighter jets bombed residential areas in the camp and the center of the strip causing widespread destruction. attacks are also taking place in the north. the head of the intensive care unit come out. i'd want hospital has been killed and it is really airstrikes and dated by now. at least 3 women have been killed. they died of suffocation during a stampede of.