a service collateral damage has collateral damage. that's what acts reality is leading to what we're seeing that will allow me to push back for a moment is the you are systems corporate israel, affecting. it's more of a standing from the impact of the us selections. the escalating conflict in the middle east of the urgency of climate action upfront sets the stage for serious debate on outages. here on st. government forces in northwest syria, lawrence, that vegas defensive again. the fine thing is the most intensive since the highest of all, almost a decade ago. so why has the violence flared up again and why now? could it escalate bits inside the hello? welcome to the program and it's on to government forces up over on chunks of territory

and serious north west. in the 1st major outbreak of fighting in recent years, syrian and russian war plains have been scrambled to try and push back the offense . it is the biggest attack since march of 2020. that's when russia, which box present sharla sat on turkey, which support some of the rebel groups broken, a cease 5. the flower up is happening as a rod and has bola allies of a sub. i've been weakened by israel and fighting in level, so i has the complex talented again now and what might be its impact on the 5000000 people living in opposition controlled areas. we'll discuss all listen more with august. but 1st, this report from axles on which as the sounds of war have returned to it live in a level as armed groups mount through a most ambitious of times to be years in a surprise attack on wednesday. hi teddy. it all shop a group formerly affiliated with the all new storefront captured thousands of

villages. the fighters say they're offensive is a response to recent attacks by the arm. there now advancing on the outskirts of government control a lot in the have to know that life changes swiftly and the balance of power has shifted towards us in a way. we never expected. we a stronger than the world, things stronger with god 1st and with you. second, the promises via so do not leave your positions. the word in syria began in 2011 when deicide regime crushed pro democracy protests during the spring. which started as a popular uprising evolved into a complex proxy conflict involving regional and world powers. years later, a serious north remains the preferred method, the northwest, where the fighting is taking place is the last stronghold of rebel groups and their allies. to the east kurdish forces backed by us troops control territory which an oil and gas wild tequila maintains buffer zones along the sport or at the assad

government controls 2 thirds of the country with support from iran and russia. the syrian army responded to wednesdays incursions with intensive air strikes, hoping to hold the fighters to advance opposition groups say of russian aircraft were involved. the military says, armed groups have targeted villages, townsend military installations. but the timing of the operation, these raising questions, the sides key allies, the ron and has paul are under attack from israel, which is backed by the united states and russia. it's vacant. we're in ukraine. some incense, the new fighting is now related to events outside the country, the ceiling review every now and then sometimes directed by its forces sometimes by its allies in the russian shell, the people um, you know, uh absolutely for no reason. um and uh, so this,

this uh uh, this operation is both defensive and, and on and defensive. nearly 3000000 displays, people live in northwest syria and to renew friday to, to force in a growing humanitarian crisis. their recent months have seen arab states and to, to keep moving, to normalize relations with the side, the spike concerns from those living at their revel health north after 13 years. so for this claim, more than 300000 bites and displaced 12000000 people. this new offensive threats and store unravel the fragile stability of recent years. i suppose i'm gonna reach out to 0 for inside story. but spring and i guess in washington dc, we're joined by could tie but it will be he's a senior policy advisor at the american coalition for syria, which supports us policy based on the democratic reform and human rights in syria.

incorrect in turkey, we have a scale check, the director of tucker studies a bit on rum, direst set to research organization and a non resident fellow for the serial projects up at atlantic council. and also in washington dc, we are joined by caroline rose, the director of the new lines institute. non pa does, i'm think tank, why she has research on military withdrawal on security. welcome to you all. i'll begin with you can type if i may. why has this started? now? what other say, what are the rebel functions? what has made them stop this offensive? now? thank you so much. now of course, couple of reasons why this is now i think, to start with 1st there is a logistical and very pressing reason which is related to the lives of almost 4000000 civilians living in the areas of western other point and left today for almost 40 years those populations have been living under the mercy of the government forces and you run in militias bombarding those villages and towns on

daily basis because they do control the strategic hills or seeing those different on in villages. so there was definitely a need to liberate hills and areas that oversee those areas that would prevent the salt bridging him from using the artillery and rockets to target the areas different towns and cities live in west and all that. but i think geopolitically also what's happening in the region, especially in my bedroom with the weakening of physical and you're on across different areas of celia has really presented an opportunity for the rebels to really try to add science and tests the weaknesses of this. i presume, and it's, and it's allies of the writing militias. the preparations of course, phone for this operation has been going on for months. and so there has definitely at least thoughts about this in class to do this for a long time. but of course, the timing of the operation 2 days ago, i think it has come as

a surprise to all of us. all know, is that what it is be on to government forces in the north west and syria taking advantage of what's happening to hezbollah under, on, in, in lebanon. yes, that is, is by 2 and the city and where, but it's have taken advantage of this. but this is not part of the story, it is also distorted between concord and damascus. so unco has tried to reach out to damascus and try that new meditation approach with the federally team, however, that fade into russians recently, the clear to case ending reading for us and syria, and stated that there is no hopes for a venture meeting. and despite cyber took sure which is the human demo, because it was not the way the to discuss it, please dissolution, syria, and test. the operation, as it was discussed for months now, was initially a f, a rejected by to kia and now we see the tickets given the green light for this

operation to the lounge. and we see that due to the war and you queen and due to the tension between the site and the one the, the 2 main because of the subtleties you, me. so i then you do. so you want and russia, i'm not capable of putting up the cdn the path now. and they cannot protect us that we gene and essentially gene without massive support from you on in the russia is apparently not a but to withhold again so. so we knew whether it's because the clear and collapse of the defensive lines of that situation. it's a surprise to old, and i think also a surprise to, to see anywhere, but it's $0.10 carolina. so, you know, the way that oma saying this is a about because the acid regime has a non react to, to over chose from, to kia. so took, he has given the green light. so this is not what we think that i think turkey has certainly indirectly given the green light, because this is ultimately an opportunity for them to redraw the lines of the

conflict, particularly best ceasefire agreement that has been in place since really 20192020 . but additionally, as, as on there just mentioned, it's also an opportunity for them to re molds talks for normalization with the regime. also, course, this is an opportunity for them post ceasefire that has been made in lebanon just a few days ago for them to also try and read, draw, and redesign the lines of the geo political context and dynamic of the region before the trump administration takes office ultimately, because it took, he's also looking at the ne of syria where the united states, 5 about $900.00 personnel, active duty personnel stations, in addition to contractors fighting alongside the f t a cx. so really i think for them that they're thinking about the long game, the big picture, which is how can we really try and change the lines and change the rules of

conflict in north of syria. okay, we'll try and get we'll get back to the politics a little bit later, but could type it in terms of the, the practice practicalities on the ground. when we talk about the different rebel groups, the different anti government forces that there are in the north and the north west of syria who's leading this offensive. so the different groups on the ground have established um, what is so called the military management unit, where basically the leaders from the different groups are coming together to manage this operation. and of course, the training and preparation for this operation has started to police 5 or 6 months ago, where essentially all different groups have sat in different numbers of fighters to train in different areas of atlanta. actually, many fighters were turned back because for the leadership, they thought they were not for the enough for the level of this operation. but it seems there is a kind of like

a more joint effort to push forward on this. there is clearly a joint effort to make sure that there is no branding for any specific group to, to take the lead or to say that they are the ones weren't advancing on the ground. so there is high level of coordination that we haven't seen in years when it comes to our eval advances on different fonts against the regime. of course, there is no doubt there is an important role for hated to have shown to play in this as one of the main groups that has remained to combine and control structure across northwest syria. but i wouldn't, you know, doubt that all the other groups, including groups that had been supported by the united states before lot philip a shot and i guess it was a, like a jump to show me. all of those are importing very vital role in this operation. that we see today, coma there is plenty that divides these groups, at least level groups in syria, but they all united in their opposition to ask that it seems quite well,

coordination is good type is just saying, but come, they hold the games that they've made. you think and that that may well bring it comes to a holding the gains. i think the position has or they would position here because it's much easier for them. a fault position. so rather than capturing positions and weak, if you have to see how that situation would wake, especially if the web would succeed in for the gaining control over all know if i live with city, it would be really hard for us that we seem to capture the city back as you may remember in 2016 when i set managed to we could 8 to city peg. it was born. you do to have we investments and we support by the russians and you ryan's so and i doubt that to usher and he won off that you can regional fuel queen. and after the tensions in the lab and on and the side, the army intentions have the resources for step again and the central gene for we take of i look for city. and it appears that the momentums on the type of screen

where both and we've made speak about syria and then much different perspective than we did last week. kind of, i'm not say it isn't, it is the 1st serious challenge to, aside on these boxes in years. i mean, how much of a threats do you see this is being taught to him? i mean, if you look at just the impressive scale and the pace of this operation, and i don't want to speak for uh for cuba and no more. but i think that potentially we could all agree that this is quite impressive when it comes to just how fast they were able to push not only to the outskirts of the level, but you will let those city uh this was just with within 3 days. and they were able to retake territory that for. 8 around the lines and wishes for the regime itself, for russian forces that were backing those forces. it took them months if not years to try and sustain those sorts of operational gains. combined with the fact that this really had excellent opposite opt operational security. this was very much an

impressive operation and i think dell, of course, the question is pending, sustain that attend the regime, try and build up momentum. i think it all comes down to the fact. and really the question of whether russia will be able to increase its assistance to the syrian regime. in addition to a ron or ronald wind elements like has below and i or g c, back to militias. and i think we sent it in, in the initial 3 days, we have not necessarily seen signs, but these organizations will come to their aid to make it really matter when it comes to trying to achieve routine gains or they're just incapacitated. and i think that is especially the case where a wrong backed organizations, they just do not have the organizational capacity. they do not have the weaponry. they do not have the personnel that will make a difference. and for russia, they evacuated a base intel re spot recently today, moscow issued a statement that essentially said and sent this message that they rely on the

regime to restore order. so we haven't necessarily seen signals and messages from the russia that indicate that they will provide substantial support to allow them to re take and reclaim these territories. i think the top of the regional dynamics of change so much in the last 12 months has ball or is a shadow of it's full of himself after his fighting with his railroad iran week. and as we've heard so best for those groups in those fighting groups in northern sir, this is a perfect opportunity for them to take. oh, absolutely. and i think this is the, the main weakness of the software. shame that while when it comes to personal, you're on has replaced the presence of his, the law on, i looked for an ad lib months ago. would the bottom movements from your ok, you brought in around 800 the rocky fighters to replace those positions that his beloved fighters were, were manning?

i think the main thing that you're on and there was, you can not to replace is the leadership and the military advisors that has, will lost a lot of and that you wrong has lost a lot of or kept those who are still a lie on the on the battlefield, a mother and on and in syria on the fence of israel. so there is really an important in balance of power here for you on because they can not fully handle all of these fonts at the same time. and definitely that we're getting those capitalized, playing a huge role here. i think as caroline mentioned that the question is, how can russia manage this and for us? so to be honest, it's not an easy question for sure. like if we look at the examples of similar countries managing um airforce operations and the reason we look at that, are they based on guitar, for example, it has, it's meant by 11000 service ma'am. and russia doesn't have a think enough manpower to send at this moment to syria,

to mind. and is this every operations needed to push the rebels back in a level? and so there is a really a big question, how to dress up, push back with turkey or against the rebels to stop such a operation. but also the big question, i think as coverline mention is how much the rebels really can hold. i think there is a question of, you know, logistics of manpower as well because as the front lines really expand, there is definitely there will definitely be need for additional demand power on the level side. not to doubt that this would stop them. i think one of the other surprising moments we're seeing to in the last 3 days is how much support from the populations in northern all that full and it live province for this operation, we're seeing young folks in their early twenties. we are pushing on those phones and we're seeing over all the populations really exciting even to move back on the

1st day that their villages are liberated. so the amount of popular support we're seeing amongst here and communities might be helpful for those struggles. and the next weeks and months to come home, a e, a given the logistical challenges, the practical challenges, russia faces does it? how being clicking that inclination even to help they said reggie fight by kit. yeah. that's in part of the question. i think the priorities always say clearly like new queen and the as the ukraine is the priority and rush that you would need it not to in saul just to maintain the funk lining in ukraine and to maintain its atlanta at financing. i don't highly doubt that to i show with except to stall it's at once and ukraine in the bit to feed for a protecting the settlers game in syria. and it's where we, i'd like to put it lessons to be able to words, step up and risk who difficulties you at that time and here the soon river, it's happening, pause and caught that they have not played yet. and this is,

there is no direct support from to q in 2020 the 2 cust loans. and it took shot to the we basically prevented the take all of it by the separation you on and russia. and if there's a new momentum and new for the 2nd with gene is seeing where birds could stead in the if it comes to a baby, difficult situations, potentially with that on to, to support direct support that will change and tire. but if it dynamics, so the costs are clearly on the side of the screen weapons and it is very likely that the subdivision would have to take some steps back. com. you mentioned the $900.00, so us troops in syria from tried to pull them out less time, the remainder of them he was eventually his, a secular state help push back. what's the risk of them being pulled out this time? and the consequences of that? i think that looking forward and a trump administration when it comes to withdrawal from,

from ne area up until this point, i think it was very clear that we would likely see an immediate withdrawal from ne syria. especially given the fact that there was a withdrawal timeline announce for operation inherent result by the end of 2026. now is there is continued complex and kinetic operations in the northwest of syria. a. additionally, if the regime is not able to re consolidate these gains outside of a lot though, there could be another reason for us forces to remain in ne, syria. but looking at the trunk administrations ideological, their vision when it comes to us forward presence abroad. i think that ultimately they may decide to pull out us forces immediately, especially if there is a sign that a turkish offensive is imminent. and of course, that they, they don't believe that there is any reason to put us forces, you know, between wedge between sd ac units and turkish forces that would be conducting this

offensive. but of course, there, there is also a very good chance that this administration would keep you with forces there, particularly taking and then capitalizing on the fact that the regime is losing ground. and trying to keep that wedge between around the lined forces and other adversaries in the region type or you believe the trump administration would be interested in allowing the us forces to remain that in the syria and other conflicts. they've shown no great appetite to stay involved of the hitting the nail on the, on the head. i think there is definitely a, but it's good question. they are on what does trump want? i think there are a couple of factors that a might have changed strong mentality when it comes to withdrawal. i think number one is the serious assassination of the time that the wrong try to conduct against the president trump. the depart u. s. department of justice is revealed earlier this year. i think this,

this was the kind of to change the mentality of president trump because it's also understood on the security and military level in the us. that the us presidents in syria is not only about access. i can, i can even say that it is mainly followed to your i mean, militias and their access into the fond syria and lebanon. so there is definitely a need more for that positioning. i think the political decision that president trunk will have to take is what there to withdrawal us forces from the borders with turkey to allow turkey to create its freeze on our basically securities on across the borders with syria to the depths of 20 or 30 kilometers that is where the action might happen, but i, you really doubt that president trump would when i created the image or would be interested even in pulling us troops completely from ne syria over at the red jeep

type foot on the tech is present, has been itching for a long time to, to clear that space in the northern syria, but from the code it's dominated forces. he would relish the opportunity to do that wouldn't take so i think to, to piece president would push forward in this and kia, i think the main argument would be that it term pest to make a decision either between a geographical position. if the us withdrawal, it would be the one who would defend the support. if there's an uncoordinated, i may come with over, there's no other process anyone who can fill this void immediately. so the top insulation is to make a decision as to a statement just. busy they have to stay in and keep the wrong to pay, or they be to intend or basically to you on all the results of the 2 key. and this is the exact moment the judge president would come in and try to reach out to tom and try to make a deed with them. i think the 2 presidents have shown in the past that they're quite capable of witching agreements, and that's tom's likes to me by gains and likes to make the fields that took as

president of a try to say, let's work together. let's work on that coordinator. that may convert to a would, and let's facilitate a giant world map of both states pro what in which to to can pick it. let's nation security threat. and the us can prevent anyone from taking over carolina catawba test on the, on this before, but it's worth reminding people there are 5000000 people living under control of different time to government forces in northern syria, northwest in syria and life baz. nothing's changed in the last few years. there's been no infrastructure construction. there is, is there a ident susie as them that if you like most of the people living not to try and resolve this conflict in that favor? and certainly i think that even in the last few days we've seen also a huge displacement crisis, given the fact that the showing and and, and the conflict has, as of course introduce a new level of and security. but when it comes to really returning those displaced

populations, particularly diaspora communities that have been away for many years throughout the syrian civil, complex civil war. i think that really there is going to be a lot of energy and excitement into trying to revitalize the infrastructure and create new services, governmental services that will really revitalize a level and, and it's countryside. but i think ultimately it's going to really depend on whether opposition forces are able to maintain the gains that they've made in the last 3 days. and of course, there's the question of governance, who will, who will govern this region and, and will they be able to provide the necessary services to really and truly, truly revitalize the, the infrastructure that's in a level. catawba, do you think that's even a possibility that there's any sort of way of, of unifying these uh, anti government control pods of syria in that they may be able to start re establishing some sort of life that are in terms of it and split infrastructure. i

mean, i think there's definitely a base for that. we've seen continuous efforts to really unify at least the military commands we right now have 2 main military commands, one in northern eligible and one in edward. i think there is definitely we've seen specifically i think we've asked us clear improvements in the last 5 years and have in terms of governments in terms of administration, in terms of its ability to really go run those areas. i think that modem would really be inspiring for other groups to really work with or create their own model that would follow because there is definitely across all of northern syria. and there's a big question here, of course that we haven't touch up on is what with the curtis malicious level of this year and dual credit for says do or how would they deal with this in the future? i think there is a model emerging in terms of governance in northwest syria. that is really important to follow. but the biggest question would be, i think, is not really about only in rebels conversations. i think the next big question

would be, how could northeast and northwest syria works together in a way that would maintain security for cherokee while at the same time increased leverage for forces war against assad inside. oh, okay. oh my very briefly your, your inputs on that, how could the future pan out a governance wise in northern and northwest in this area. so we would probably see that it live going in structure with big central electricity and that we would see in the future depending on who took somebody can agreement as k. but said the potential for more discussions in terms of unifying northwest and ne, syria. but that all depends on what time and add on would speak about. it's all right, thanks to all i guess what i to have time to. catawba, it will be to oma is cuz they'll check on to caroline rose. um thank you too for watching. you can see the problem again, any time by visiting our website out to 0 dot com. how's the discussion?

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december 2024 in doha katasha, shea come on the award for translation and international understanding from the arabic language to mankind. the . i'm tell mccrae and how these are the top stories on al jazeera opposition font is in syria site. that caption the of the military airport in the northwest and province of live. it's one of the largest airports in the region. and one of the most prominent advices in syria, early of fines, is advanced into a live posts and he sent a, it's the 1st time of entered the country, 2nd largest city. since government forces recap, shoot it in 2016. the military had earlier say that repelled a major offensive for the fighters, claimed to have taken a number of towns and villages and lip of and it lived provinces. that depends on

how all that had done. i'm in that of the 8 years of being displaced by the doing of the a sub family and as criminal machine.