so there has never been an official match with middle school against was able to read this. what such a team did it from local fields in member. okay. to the international state, these today as proof that size doesn't define strength. i'll just say well for those and instead of raising the story of person disappointment and trust rising to the challenge on houses era, a lightning offensive by opposition flight is in syria. sweeps on the woods off of that po, fools, president bush out, a side vows they'll be defeated despite little resistance to his forces. so what's next? with syria and the other countries involved in the world. this is inside store, the data on james bay's, they say a week is

a long time in politics. but in syria events, unimaginable just 7 days ago had been rapidly on folding or in terms of government control of swayed as a territory, unraveling opposition. forces have swept through largely on challenge, taking over a laptop over the country, 2nd city, and pushing ahead with attention in the region focused on garza in lebanon, syria's friends and civil war had seemed dormant. no one predicted what was to happen with questions now about just how full i'm a president bush, alice sides group on power really is the underlined by the difficulties a key allies is bullet iran and russia face elsewhere. so how has this happened and why? now, what's the impactful, serious people, and what will they run russia to kill his bullet? i'm the us do next. all of them with forces active in the country will speak to a panel of guests in a moment. but 1st, this report from laurel. com that a new front rig nights off to use a frozen conflict. syrian government forces strike it left off to an opposition

offensive come voice of all the the vehicles entering an area west of the city of how the lead by high it for the assume or h t. s. fully linked to all call you to the syrian, all the delays, it's withdrawal from the area. so it appears to have all that little resistance when lightning offensive on the lat pole. earlier in the week, serial opposition forces rattled in their phones by friday, the force of the city they chose it, damascus, how much foods will be that? the seller, how far the main goal was to expel the gangs that were in a level as the oppressed people with extreme injustice and suffering boats. the opposition of phones is a beta set back to bushel assad government. he took control of the city in 2016 and drove out opposition forces with the backing of russia and the run. they had an

attack the city again, until now. although a solid controls 2 thirds of syria, much of the dose has been covered up to areas under the control of different functions. the duties of the american fox, uncoated sled, siri, and democratic forces ellipse considered a strong hold of h t s. while the turkish back serial shall all the hopes of area and the do russian road and the liberties fighting group hezbollah have supported us as government for both of the decades, with military assistance from the air and ground boats more recently has bullet, has the fighting a war with israel and russia and ukraine, while the run has been in conflict with israel, has bologna it on hopefully the key role in the and with the russian support to sustain that a g m as it's, or the 3rd. so a window of opportunity now to change this, this, this function of the stuff a school that does not work for the,

for the on interest. why is this book has been struggling with an influx of millions of, of student difficulties? did you offensive means boy, in security for people caught up in the violence molded 7000000000 people have already been forceful. the homes by will if it's rage since 2011. and betty, a crowded to small pockets of loud in dolton syria living on saw the tree conditions for life as far as he gets full styles is both of these. but i know that the main is i left with my children and from the, along with all these people because of the escalating attacks and showing we left and became displaced in this area. and hopefully we will go back home safely, darling. very people to question a big house. so its defenses felt so quickly at the left post as what that means, the international back is of the different sites in syria. and whether the lights defensive will lead to wider escalation or force the warring forces back to the negotiating table. the work on the inside story out to 0.

well that spring, you know, i guess now on today's program in cod, if aimen job i'd alto meet is research fellow at the middle east for him and a specialist on his lubbock states and other known state groups in syria in london throughout the site is that is the founder of the violets, a organizational refugee, a newsletter, humanitarian group working in northwest in syria, and another bill, iraq, raj, allow the dean is a fellow at the middle east council on global affairs. thank you. um welcome to all of you. and thank you for joining us on today's program. let me start with you. i'm and i'm in the 1st reported from syria more than 30 years ago. and rarely if i've seen events a start cling as these. how surprised have you been? well, i was very surprised by you know, what happened and i think got to the also him very important be also to be

surprised the certain government, both of them, their allies, were very surprised and taken by by the very sides. i think that the insurgents launched a major offensive. i think they've gotten used to the idea that basically the content would it be, would be frozen virtually. and definitely because of the term construction understandings, the word 1000 disease by it, but the northwest region and 2020 as obviously because they didn't have, they might not have received that. so say aging necessary, you receive any um indication of uh, oven and tends to invite the insurgents. and once you've answered it, but it seems to me they just didn't take it seriously. and if they did receive such indications and they didn't make the proper preparations and of course buying the front by ends and property money and defending them. and now you see this rapid collapse. so this happens the result. it's a real break from the state as goes past 5 years. let me also understand to pick up

that why do you think the regime forces were cold? so of got but i think the context is particularly important in this, in this discussion. so the 1st october, 7 escalation has seen a severe degradation all the regime and its, uh, its allies in, in syria, the iranians in particular. i wouldn't say this is so much of question of, of be prepared. the problem being occupied with other conflict fits as other issues, but also may be a degree of complacency. the sad regime has enjoyed a normalization of its relations with the wider region with the, our wild that's been driven by several countries that once upon a time, we're on the opposing side of the spectrum. so that complacency i think is important in that respect. secondly, there's been a degradation of the regimes infrastructure. i'm going to train for structure in the country, mainly the original line forces and the run organizational capacity that's allows

you to impart to as a result of a, israel's, a targeted assassination o t i r g c personnel within syria itself. but ultimately, i think, you know, once upon a time this conflict was driven by the region and the international element was secondary to that right now, what we're seeing as a consequence of that normalization asides re integration into the our world is a limited appetite for renewal of the so called port pools of civil war. and i think a combination of those factors is ultimately what led perhaps to the regime being complacent. the russians most crucially are occupied in, in ukraine. but that doesn't mean that won't be a push back over the coming hours and days. the push back has actually started already. so what we're going to see is perhaps a, a we're the renewed conflict of attrition. i believe just as ice is,

was pushed back again in the wake of it's offensive. it's lightning offensive in 2014 by the rocky state and it say international allies. we're going to see a blong thing of this. a remarkable revel advance. okay. a lot to impact that we will as we go through the program, but it's not just about these forces. it's about the people for what you want the humanitarian on this panel, what report? so you can think about how people are coping, how many people have been displaced. how bad is the situation? yeah, thank you so much. has been the beginning that when i say that it is, was a real shock for us also as a human to tell you in teams working in the area. and we were in like, ready to, to do this. i mean, big emergency response, but um, from the day one, the people they're asking for the help because around 5000000 people were stuck in their houses and only post city for some days. and then

a word of themes joined yesterday morning with the other imagines his team totally posted to you to try to provide the immediate need, the bread, food, and water for the people, as well as also our 1st responders and the 1st a doors where working in the hospitals because a label has lost the most of the maybe co workers and the 1st state at a doors. and then we were able to work with the other organizations and why tell them it's on the other 2 responses for the attacks happening on the city from yesterday, many attacks happen from the russian and 30 and the aircraft on the city of ali, po. and we are, we have like many reports on the people. how did and also enjoyed people. but the situation is, i mean the security distortion is not stable yet. we are trying to also, um, like have followed that and truck displacement happening from

a loophole. but it's still not a big numbers, but if our like experience, if this attacks continue for 2 or 3 days more and media people will be displacing from olivo city to the northwest as well as we have like the big displacement before then it's like we are around a very huge displacement as a us attacking on the city a started are continue a game in the coming days and the human story in situations getting back victoria, in this day is today. we have a mean that people start to get out of their houses to get the immediate needs and all so that you made sure you and organization joined by there is still a big gap and the humanitarian assistance uh, the health supplies and also and the hospitals as well. okay, well it is a confusing and rapidly changing situation right now in syria might help i think. so have a quick look at a map and look at who controls walter at least has done recently in syria,

certain government forces, backed by russia. and they were on regain control of large areas of the country during the civil war, which began the 13 years ago. opposition forces back by to kia, remained in charge of pots across the north, with hight october year. oh, sure, i'm dominating it. live provence in the north west. the syrian democratic forces, or s d, f, made off of mainly y p g code. each fight isn't backed by the us control, much of north east and syria including rocca house and pots. so there was all this areas home to significant oil reserves to kids. conducted 3 major incursions into northern syria between 20162019. it's great. what's called a safety set, an alarm at southern border. it wants to cut exterminated. s d f forces to leave tel roof at a non beach and move east of the euphrates. so bringing you up to date that on what the situation was. but of course, it's moving very, very rapidly a month. maybe i can offer you 1st to focusing on high attorney,

or i'll show them exactly who is this group. it was part of, i'll tell you what is the group, what are the characteristics of this group and who else is involved in this offensive? yeah. so here's um, uh it was uh 80 balls out of uh, jackets. and those are the weights was the seat, or used all by and uh, the um, and uh, before may use the leaders uh, mazda, the breaking of ties between of i didn't hear the sound. there was a lot of unhappiness. no idea about the about once deb, it's enough for it didn't for me to say the height or sound breaking size. it is a genuine uh, breaking of ties. i mean the grooves, the zip is uh, the one who is 09 syrian. the awesome born biotech contingent is living room, which is wal arouse. this is the concern of the ins, nice community such as the most banks and all the ends of multi v as in the grew um,

but it does genuinely broken its ties all the positive. but they are also other vaccines that be participating in this offensive uh, round northwest area. so vaccines and the surgery spiked uh, syria, national army of groups like this army friends of north 11th countryside. and you also have a literacy starting his army party, which is weaker lads, and as an ally, it definitely does sound, but it's independent in grew and then you have other more independent groups, like what are some that syrian bay that this most of the syrian so it's it makes you a vitamins but, and the site has been leading the charge. okay. right. and um, do you think even say, expected the success they've had? do you think they expected to take this much territory? and if that's not the case, then is there a danger here of them over extending themselves to? absolutely, so this, this lightning offensive by design is intended to catch it to talk it off, got to,

in this case, the a sat regime, the radians and the, the russians. it's designed to achieve the significance, potentially strategic gains in a very short window. you know, almost similar to like, i say, the 2014 nice events offensive. even the october 7 attacked by a mass. but that's very different to turning this into a strategic victory. and as you point out, there was a risk of a, a re chair because what these bruce now have to do is actually maintain the control of these to 3rd trees. and number one, number 2, they need to mobilize in response to the coming pushback. from the radians the russians in the us, that regime and 3, it's a question of the consolidation. and if the, the, the, yeah, the syrian civil rights, total test, anything. it's that these revel groups. in fact, i'm particularly effective at maintaining keeping hold of territory and

consolidating depositions in the face of a very intense bombardment, buying the russians through the restaurants in the face of very battle hobbs and rather effective ministry groups aligned with the wrong. and it's not simply a question of the forces that have been deployed and in syria over the past decade also. but potentially other actors playing a more proactive role. and that includes, for example, the popular novelization forced in iraq, which already has some groups functioning, operating within the serene landscape. but we could see a, an expansion of these, of these groups in the, in syria. so like i say, the extension of reach the ability to consolidate, maintain depositions and 3, the biggest question, marketable can, they would spend significant pressure from the russians in the threats as trucks and, and others. and so at those as strikes have already started. we've already seen russian

bombardments including the 1st russian bombing overlapped po since 2016. i think. i mean, this must be terrifying for the people of that city, which is the 2nd. the city is not the capital, damascus is the capital, but is actually the largest city in the country. yeah, i sold today kind of a cold capital lane. so yeah, in the mean, the lots of people, if, if i mean the, for me continue, lots of people decide to leave immediately. and this is a huge like of in fact, or would that we should be aware off and the plumbing like to come to the main house. because today, today we have very part of plumbing about a loophole house because i live playing the best deal hosted with the where our team, where they're and get a talk directly on their influence. and um, that's actually like what's also on the fact that there is we are and we have a deadline just to stop that. and otherwise there will be

a huge displacement. and also, i mean the people that didn't decide to displace the under this attack because also is that city as i get at that today and yesterday and split, think all the area in our race cost displacing are also moving around the area. and because it's like very high in that very quick changing, get the people are just stuck in the house is waiting for the news because, you know, the, the positions dead soldiers arrived yesterday to how my city and the sporting the people in a case off like just waiting for the news and trying to be updated from their houses. and that's actually putting costs on uh um, facing the problem that we cannot also arranging the people in their houses to provide the immediate tell about the food and water. and that's why our team trying also to go slower to the people house by house to help them. but it's still a huge city and we need an um, a very,

very large like scale of resources to help all met those media on people and to provide that immediate need as far as the live saving and also uh, letting me get food and water for the people in the 6th aim and can i ask you about the response from damascus? um it took until saturday, a for a statement to come out from present the side confusion about his whereabouts. some suggestions that he was in moscow and then returned to damascus. do you think there was worry that in the capitol in the center of power, that he could lose complete control of the country, a country that his family have run for 54 years? i do being the silly signs of alarm about the about the loss is on the battlefield, but i don't think it's necessary extensive in immune into downfall. i mean, the highlands cause when us remember the indices that ms. b a that have been the, has been the proliferation of a false reports. the room is up there and intending to our coordination somehow

between the series and the other 3 offices and, and the insurgent bikes. and so i think people a passive being a b 2 a's do with that it does remind me of when we go in comparison with the islamic se offensive in the rock in 2014 to so how the whole of book dodge was invented and so i think it's uh, that should be that of course and all die down the, there's a sense of you sense of prices, but um, as its main allies, the rest of the run seem prepared to stand by him. but now, and you'll see that in the heavy joint syrian russian ball and bothers of the areas they've been newly acquired by the surgeon. so really the conflicts. uh no, not even in the over. and i hear it's actually going to last a long time with a considerable amount of the civilian deaths and displacements, unfortunately, runs. let me bring you in there about these allies because the ones that have

helped out aside all the way through his problems for the last 13 years of russia, iran and his bola. now let's just take those 3. how. how pad do you think they ought to help him out this time because all of those countries have have other things going on and his bola is seriously degraded and that's right . so i, i think from, from that perspective and i think this reflects the reality. what they really need to do at this point is simply blocked the the offenses and prevented from developing a momentum that could present a exist central threat to this, that regime. and i think that sort of to be straightforward. um, especially if you've got as strikes at your disposal. so we're going to see over the next few days how things will develop on the ground. and i think like other countries in the region and internationally, they'll be adopting a wait and see approach. but i don't think there's any, you know,

i don't think any one of those actors at the moment to see this as an existential threat. but one that could develop into one. and so if you look at it in different phases, you know, right now it's just simply about halting the red blood zones. conflict inflicting as much damage as possible. and then bear in mind that this will be done through a discriminant attacks, which unfortunately will result in a, to a survey, humanitarian prices and casualties to the civilian population. the russians and the radians have no version towards conducting those kind of those kind of tracts. and operations, so that's basically whole tank and blunting be the regular thoughts. now in terms of what comes next, in fact, they'll be looking at how the regional actors and international actors react to this advance. and what works in, in the favor of be a said raising the russians and the iranians. it's that the types don't want to take ownership of this advance all they don't want to see or develop into something

far more significant. or renewal of the civil war itself. and the americans most certainly haven't indicated just yet, that they're going to be supporting this advance. well that they have any, have an appetite for a renewal of the civil war. the fact is that they don't, there isn't no appetite whatsoever in washington. instead of these in ankara and any of the other major regional or the capitals for a renewal of this civil war. that doesn't work in favor of the rebels, because they will need significant external support patronage. to turn this into something more than simply a, a lightning offensive design to take a left for it. maybe of a strategic townsend and cities for what and what was the if i could bring? so i have now as a humanitarian, how do you think the international community should respond to this? what do you want to see? i mean,

we're saying the 1st thing that we should ever like decide also think about it is not being that we can't get liquids, city under the bombing, or any more fighting because the huge displacement when happened. and what happened in the days if that happened, then the only way that we're trying to say that's protecting the civilians in the area. it's the priority of all the follower work. that's why we have time to, to ok to far and also as the otherwise is supporting the humanitarian asters and the organization and in the area. yeah, because we are in fact of, that's a median of people in the city need an immediate help waiting should like ron and operate, then the hospitals that water supply, and also distributing that needed food. and also the praise for the people. then when there is a huge need of the human attorney and support from the whole world war, then that's what we are trying to say. and also we are also looking to see how the

situation will be in the next days. and uh, based on that, we are trying to be more prepared as far as any emergencies respond in the future, or any display spend could be happened in the area. and of course, this comes at a time when we, the us is in transition. we know the president trump instincts on syria. they were $900.00 troops, 70 twice older, that they'd be withdrawal. and last time he was president of the pentagon, seem to look around his orders and, and ignore them. what do you think the us as role here? it is in both with the outgoing administration, with the arrival of president trump shortly and will be honest, the us role in this particular development and the offensive in the northwest. it's very limited because the, the us cut off, it's uh, support for the insurgency. uh, the selected susan bikes and many years ago and became very disengaged in that. and

then the focus to into is to deployment in the northeast, northeast of the kind of free and the east of the country. with the supporting these, the syrian democratic forces by the, by the good as to why the g. um, i think though, uh the, the, there is a potential for uh the us to become more direct be involved in and brought things i get like to die. never about what it should do if the surgeon binders actually took me, there was a north, a level with circus approval on. so was a battalion of mandates. yeah. west of the euphrates river. i know that was a long time being, so it is concerned about the presence of the certain democratic forces there in the us as been involved in deployments in that area. so it will then it could risk coming to a full front, both of us as to why need to do to stick to stay. all i also did pull back and really is anyone's guess about what happened is

a good from good ministration is in things withdrawal. this is advise is telling him to stay runs very quickly. the us went that because of all i. so do you see any possibility that this could help a resurgence of ice so very briefly, please by sizes the thrives and situations of uncertainty volatility? so absolutely, if you see a renewal of conflict, if there was an expanded conflict over the coming days, weeks and months, then the ice as will, will thrive. and i think that has implications for how the trump administration in gauges, syria that will have a bearing on his counter terrorism campaign in both syria and iraq, where the could be a spiller spit out of the effect of the current development. thank you very much. all of you for joining us today. all guess what branch of the teen fluid side is an aim and draw it out to me. this of course is a fast moving story for all the latest development states into algebra. and remember, you can also get context and analysis on an app on your phone,

and it out as the adult calm as i. but we want to hear from you to post your views on our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash age a inside story. or you can use x, or you'll find us at a inside story. i'll see you back here very soon for me, james base and all the team. bye bye for now. the money in taiwan. believe a chinese invasion is an old to be your friends. and some are preparing the military is practicing the island a $25.00. you diligently trains that civil defense costs be good to be come back to read for the day and she hopes would never have custom. originally experiencing this winter. i talked to the witness divided straight on and just either

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