tv Counting the Cost Al Jazeera December 4, 2024 2:30am-3:00am AST
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centralized hopes and learning today. the last results with families meeting schultz is from the house of the story. the right wing government in israel seems almost immune to the pressure of the captive families and international calls for a cease firing. gaza, the hello, i'm adrian said again. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your. we can look at the world of business and economics. this week. china has moved to support its exports. us ahead of donald trump's anticipated terrace strikes. added strive for self sufficiency is accelerating. is paging better prepared for another trade problem with the us this time around. he's a 1000000000 a invest scope. the best sense is trumps picked for us. treasury secretary kennedy
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strike the right balance between embracing the president elect policies and maintaining markets dependency. and chrome is the world's most popular web browser . it's also an important part of google's business, fucked us recognizes at the amount of the company sets in an attempt and check monopolies in 2018. when donald trump loans trade restrictions on china, its economy was flying high to date, or the nation is struggling with the real estate down to a debt crisis. and deflation, all of which a dragging down it's economic growth. this has made many chinese companies shift to focus on sales abroad. bots, us president elect donald trump, has recently found to raise terrace by an additional 10 percent on all chinese imports. as soon as he takes office this time around, china looks to be prepared for another trade route. it's announced measures and up supports and gets exports us ahead of us down to the 2nd trump administration. but are they enough?
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we'll discuss that with our guest shortly. but 1st oracle some surely for thoughts china's presidency should thing on the diplomatic defensive. since don't have trumps re election as us pressed. and the chinese leader has been shortened up support and global events from return to the white house has to be, is the tensions between the boys 2 largest economies could boss. and if we treat each other as opponents or enemies engage and vicious competition and mutual hon. china use relations with suckers sit back. so even regressions, these plea for the smooth transition have been met to put more threats, which i'm pronouncing, he intends to impose major status on the united states, 3 largest trading partner, as he's promised 25 percent out of sun canada, and mexico and an additional 10 percent on oil chinese in boats. when he takes sofas on january 20th, shortly after from social media posts,
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the chinese embassy spokesperson treated to see. there are no windows in trade was basing has been racing for trumps or down to the white house, which is america 1st policy and threats during his campaign of tax as high as 60 percent on chinese made goods in his previous dom something full status of up to 25 percent triggering of retaliation from nation. the way they will sell their product in america is to build it in america. very simple. build it in america as hardly. and i'm a nation has and will new meshes in the boosting. the countries for them played they include more financial support for funds, expanding agricultural exports and imports of energy products. these gauge and beyond mean diminished, you thomas will work with local authorities and relevant departments to close the
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moment to a foreign trade operations on the life changing conditions and show the implementation of foreign trade related policies and helping foreign trade enterprises keep order stable and expands market is so as to provide strong support for sustained economic recovery and growth or the show feats from 2nd to comes as china as struggling to kickstart it's dragging economy. a trillion dollar plan is in place to help keep the local government debt on 6 and ongoing property market crisis. but economists expect chinese expose to rise with customers rushing to place orders ahead of trump taking charge to avoid possible higher tatters. expose have already grown since july put in china on track for recalled freight surplus. this yes, i'm a consumption of these. i'll just see though, for counting the cost which on has been the top tech support. so to the us for to
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deck aids. but mexico over took it in 2023. the value of chinese inputs to the us tumble of 20 percent, to 427000000000 dollars last year. china's exports to the group of 7 or g 7 countries also dropped to on the 30 percent last year. that's down from 48 percent in 2000. in 2023. china was the 3rd largest pump for the exports and its biggest impulse, bilateral trade reached nearly 775000000000 dollars last year. that's a drop of 14 percent compared to 2022 trade between russia and china has strengthened since 2022 of the russians invasion of ukraine. it hit a record of 240000000000 dollars last year, but exports slumped over 16 percent. this much from the earlier with rolling us threats of war sanctions. however, china has built alternative sales networks with the association of southeast asian nations by actual trade with us in seen an average annual increase of 11 percent
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from 2004 to 2023. and now despite setbacks, china remains as the top global exports with $3.00 trillion dollars worth of goods exceeding the us on any $1.00 trillion dollars. the nation's export sized more than 12 percent in october, at a place for, for the games. joining us not from hong kong is gary who's a senior economist at the texas and a research fellow at the central european institute of asian studies. gary, good to have you with us again. time china has somehow so convinced these terrorists the trump has promised to flap on chinese export hasn't done enough to prepare. well, i do think um, it's not the 1st time that china faced the situation like this definitely made trying to is more prepared than what happened in 2018. so, so far we have seen trying know,
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trying to de escalate the situation with the non us market through a cutting some of the export tax rebates. at the same time, they're also more of the model side pull to see that may be rolled out this to mitigate product the impact on you know, away from the us market. but still, um, it really depends on where the trauma will actually been to them in the 60 percent of tariff on china. because right now if it is only 10 percent, it's possible to see some of this managers working. but if we're only talking about 60 percent, then the story will be quite different. so china is better prepared, but is hot to fully detached from the us market immediately. others come to us that the worst case scenario with china retaliate and impose its own terrace. are we looking perhaps at a trade war here? well, um, under the scenario th from 2.0 with more tariff, i think this is really is something that is quite likely to happen,
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which basically means the military retaliation, of course. um, what china may do also depends on what trim will do as well. because if we're talking about somewhere like 10 percent or you can start to percent of a terrace off or that goods basically ship from china to the us. that is possible to see china doing the same thing at the same time on the, on the export side also possible just so you turn the restricting or some optical uh, role materials or basically a certain products that china has a very straight big google market share all to in a way of trying to punish on the goshen with the u. s. this is also something quite possible even to return them may not be able to produce, let's say the most advanced chips to that sense. so yes, i think we're really heading towards a more intense geopolitical tensions for and not, or possibly one know in other 2 years. or i'd gary of the let's just for
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a moment assume that that, that would be a trade for what for what that feel like for the likes of you and i, and people watching all over the world. i mean, we're not quite used to seeing goods on our shop shelves from everywhere nowadays. if there were a trade, what would that change? well is it, um, i would say if the uh, tariff ready gets so high to was uh 60 percent or even 40 percent. right. um, it were largely hurt the corporate launching of the uh, the chinese or the us rooms the exporting a to was each other. so basically it's, it's really a back tracking with what we have seen in the past decade in the global i sation of which countries try to de, optimized to production costs at the lowest way. and therefore consumers able to buy goods at the cheapest price. so i think this is really something that is following back a little bit. however, it also depends on what the alternative did sense. because the out to you estimate
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be able to do that because i'm part of this in port can actually be our source made to us in india or other countries. but if we're really talking about the whole, well, the coupling from china, then how do you certainly find maybe the age of percent of the child is production elsewhere where the other countries can actually develop that quickly. i think that is a very good question to ask. so in a way, um, i do think that innovation pressure will be much higher than people expect to earlier this year. the good jerry coast, china is economy is not in the place, but it was the beginning of the last from administration. it's suffering low consumer, the amount of them at the more of and housing market that we've heard a lot about them on, on this program. how would these terrorist, if trump introduce them on chinese goods impact upon an over the sluggish chinese economy? well, i think it really depends on where the tariff actually at target,
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beyond the exit percentage and sofa. we have seen this a strong measures pop up the talking to, to meet in china goods, which basically means that is to direct trait between us and china. but at the same time, trump is supposed to impose quite a launch terrace on some of the partners as well, like canada and mexico. so that's actually worried that this talk it to us maybe in china can be expanded too make by china. so i think this is really, is something that me, courts, some of the chinese terms of being of god, even though they are more prepared than before. packing a 2018 the course, a lot of them has actually moved that production elsewhere, trying to explore to the us through different markets. so this is something that we have seen which is quite different from a few years ago. and still adults with a it can actually fully offset this impact. so which basically means that together with the domestic we could, the model is possible to see chinese growth taking
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a piece deal with recently the big shock compared to before. it's possible to see like a g to be a growth decline by um i see your point 5 or to one percentage point depending on the ultimate terrace that being imposed. so yes, the situation remains quite challenging. so definitely i do think that china will continue to explore the market, but this is not an easy job. got to stay with this. i want to ask you about the next item you, as, while way has launched its 1st smart phone, the can run on the chinese companies self developed operating system, the tech dr. ames to establish harmony, o as next, as a major arrival to apple's ios and google's android, which dominates global markets. the company's early versions of the devices were built using open source android code, or wait to mention what chip it's you made. 70 phone was running on. the launch is part of the chinese johns pushed toward technological independence in the wake of
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us sanctions. what do you make of that that carries that a sense of will move from? from far away? i mean, it could we see its operating system become a serious rival to ios and android. well, um i do think it is quite a significant milestone uh, in the way that china actually tried to move away from the uh, traditional west and technology and develop its eco system. so this is really uh, something remarkable with that can have fog. uh, basically become a game changer in the trying this tech sector. and especially if you're single some of the areas the china is lacking behind a google pierce. it's really about semiconductors, which is trying to make more invest more. and the other way to just read it on the software side of which this is something that i would consider as a breakthrough. but again, i think there's too many heard doors on. the key point is this uh, software is only being able to use on why waste device because it's a closed system. so where the uh hallway can actually, uh, cell phones uh,
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actually to bring in more consumers. so the pool can actually get higher. and eventually where they can export to the rest of the welsh. i think that is also a february big questions here on even though who has tried to recruit or basically getting more apps on the system is doing not comparable to android and apple at this stage. so i think we still need to wait and see to see how it goes. but yes, i think this is probably also like a warning to the us in terms of dissension. some may not actually be sort of in the it actually few the trying this ecosystem because they are being forced to develop it. gary is really good to talk to you on counting the cost of good manufacture date for being with us. or he is one of donald trump's biggest financial backers, the president elect, has nominated scott best, went to lead the us treasury department, a top financial job. and one of the most influential roles in government now has confirmed by the senate. the hedge fund manager is seen as
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a safe pair of hands who could push trump to soften some of his economic policies. among his tasks overseeing trumps pledges, including sweeping tax cuts, a ton of hikes, public debt, foreign trade and us sanctions. but many economists say the trunk policies could recognize inflation and slow economic growth. now that could post challenges for best sense in maintaining the stability of the world's largest economy. it's on the market out, of course, the dollar. sorry, go reports. a 1000000000 a hedge fund manager, it's donald trump, final pick to lead the us treasury department school with sense normally, nation ended weeks of speculation, drama, and in fighting for the powerful cabinet position. wall street reacted positively to the president elect choice. the bond markets responding well to the treasury secretary nomination of scott best didn't. and gonna with that, with that nomination,
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you see the 10 year kind of reality about 12 basis points or so back to kind of pre election levels that has really important style leadership ramifications for the equity market. and what you're seeing respond to that is some of the most interest rates as the parts of the market up sharply. a 62 year old percent of wall street finance was an ali backer of trumps 2024 bit and became one of his closest economic advises. as treasury secretary percent is expected to fail. the president elex promised the tax cuts and sweeping terrace on impulse. i went on back in that beautiful white house, we will pass larger tax goods for workers and we have a special tax that here is going to do, i think quite well, it's called no tax on tips. no taxes, no sense. newman nation waste completes,
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trump cabinet picks ahead of his return to the presidency in january. if confirmed by the senate percent would be the person in charge of pursuing trump economic agenda. heading from bull street to washington. sorry, go out to 0. counting the cost. joining us now from washington dc is also have a auto come due to a former vice president of the world bank and senior fellow at the policy center that full but yourself good to have you with a. so is a veteran of wall street necessarily the best candidates for us? treasury secretary i believe so. and the following says look of the donation of uh mr. investment strategies. secretary has these investor fears about a president elect. donald trump's trade. there is claims um, you know, the choice of investment that right? why? right? i saw him last months describing stripping barriers as maxima list of positions
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is being taken by investors as a sign the president for large policies may be moderated. see along the campaign, mr. trump alluded to 2 possible pass, one of them was simply the open trade war by lifting terraces and so one and the other one was when he made reference to establish plans as they were shooting tactics. so in this sense, that on the nation of a mr. bassett, as compared to mister like house, for instance. yeah, points toward the direction of a more use most likely of terrace. as the negotiation. see of course the fears were on name because after all, the treasury secretary is not necessarily the main person. i won't design and
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define or, and details of the strategy of trade, the tariff implementation. but the fact that mr. trump appointed him and just trying to find that exactly or the most he has referred to the trade tariffs as negotiating tactics and so on. is a good on in that regard. many thanks and dates of joining us on account of the cost. a pleasure. rich countries have plans to raise the funding to help poor countries fight climate change to a record of $300000000000.00 a year. but many developing nations dismissed the agreement as in sufficient launch of talking to more than one trillion dollars annually was also part of the deal. but most of that will come from private sources. the data was reached at the top $29.00 private summit. and as your bias, john's capital back to last week, the 2 sides of the was web browsing is done on google chrome. the web browser is
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very popular with both of 3000000000 active users. owning it is important to the tech jobs and the business of google relies on chrome direct website for us to its flagship. a i product gemini, among other crucial uses, but us regulates us believe that the app has too much power up and they want it sold that taking legal action to end google's market dominance unto encourage competition. last week, the us department of justice also aust judge on the meta to push google to shed data and search results with rival browsers. in august the judge met to reuben alphabet had a monopoly of online search and related ads. google was accused of breaking the little by paying $41000000000.00 to ensure that it was the default search engine on smartphones and browser specs. then american recognizes have tracked down on tech giant's dominance of the internet and such in recent years. but how could a sale happen? well, like many nations,
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the united states has anti trust laws which allow the government to break up monopolies and launch corporations through the courts. if judge meta rules in favor of all the departments of justices recommendations, google would be forced to sell chrome and will be banned from launching a new browser for 5 years. the company would also be bought from paying billions of dollars to companies to make pro, the default search engine on the devices. google has the option to appeal, of course, any rulings potentially prolonging the legal battle. joining us from london is shut . i'm sorry, a professor of strategy and innovation, a judge business school, the university of cambridge could have you with this professor. this case has been described as the biggest tech anti trust case. since the us government's showdown with microsoft at the turn of the century, a win for the american people so that what do you make of it? i think it's a big just a moment. it's a very important moment in the digital landscape. it's
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a huge step. i would agree with that. i think there's been a general narrative in trying to reduce big take dominance. but i think that addressing the wrong issue, that's my personal opinion. so what is the issue that they should have been addressing? the issue is that do things right? so what is that? um yes, it does have 2 thirds of the share of, of the, of the market as compared to safari is compared to microsoft edge. but there is dominance of google lives and it's search capabilities. and the data because it collects some uses of costco. i'm headed so i'm getting personalized data. but the rand dominance of google is search with a 90 percent share so that it can still continue. and you've seen microsoft been make so many roads, but it's an under 10 percent. so i see the vesting chrome is not going to really address the key problem, which is google. so minutes in search. and i, but more point way, i think this is still not the best use of taxpayers dollars,
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even though i'm all against big dec not miss exploiting consumers, including my own data. but i have a reason and that'll give you one or 2 other reasons why i think this may not be the most appropriate place to place to. well, 1st thing, as i said, was that the main issue is not chrome. the main issue or the main dominance of google is search. so the said with a 90 percent of share, most people use google google search. and because more people use google search, it creates a sense reinforcing cycle. and i think it's very difficult for any other company to break this. this does the dominance because the more people use global a bit as a result of so you get and there's no reason for people to shift to that, to an alternative which gives you conceited. results, so this network effects as we call them on the 7th, being forcing sites to maintain scope of dominance. so the best point number one,
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but the point number 2 that i have which is more important, why i think this may not be the most appropriate approach is that regulation seems to be bang, get you rather than being proactive. and then we'll look for regulation and bro regulation i'm parole a governance. but what i, what i am not so excited about is that this is like fighting yesterday's problem. so for me, the problem is that google search, google chrome, this is already being dis, stop the disrupted by jenny. i think they open the i chat, ged, call jim nice on loud and topics etc, etc. so this jenny is changing the search game. so what's happening is with all new kinds of browsers, new kinds of search engines coming up which integrate today. i wish it all more personalized design, small, customized designs. they're already disrupting the market. even google search could be disrupted by that. so my, my, my, my main point is,
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should be focusing on something that good big of a monopoly such as open 9, jenny, i robin addressing yesterday's problems. okay. let's get back to yesterday's problem of if google is forced to sell chrome, what would that do to its business model? i think we've perhaps addressed that back in your previous nonsense but, but who might buy it? i mean, of course the, the, the, uh, i mean it could be small, medium size enterprises. i mean, uh, you know, a, i mean, you know, internet has close up. microsoft has its own h, we, and we have done the goal, which is a private uh more give them, you know, respect supremacy for certain things that books well. so they might be small, medium enterprises that buys it and, but we could prove it to things like subscription models when somebody could do a premium service with charges you without the bets are off ads. um and on top of that,
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this is my personal view. i did not google has done some fantastic things and then search. it's of absolutely to 90 percent, but chrome et cetera is not a great product. i mean, i personally keep switching. sometimes i use edge, sometimes i use chrome. sometimes i use firefox. sometimes i use duct a goal, and it's not even have a conscious decision at times. and i bus the thing that with this, that's real ads. chrome is not even the most of peter product thought the, even though it has a 2 thirds or 6070 percent market share, it is definitely not the most superior product out there. so i just don't be is it, you know, the best thing. chrome is significantly affecting google even though chrome let's google get both of the data on use. it is that of course, then it's that feature to it and search engine that them allows. it's to be the leader and advertising. that's been absolutely fascinating. it's really good to
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talk to you professor, but effective date that shows a thank you. and that is all show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen, i'm at a friend again on x. try to remember to use past i h a c t c o, you can jump to line counts in the cost of a 0 dot net this email address. as always, there's plenty more few online at to, i'll just do a dot com slash c t c. that takes you straight to a page and then you'll find individual reports links and the entire additions for you to catch up on. but that's it for this edition of counting the cost on a tree. and so they go for the whole team here. and so how, thanks for being with us, the news on al jazeera is that the latest news, as it breaks, almost $400.00 for hanger, refugees arrived image louisa in october on 3 different thoughts with detailed coverage. the miners who escaped from the gang, plus the volt plains and cold through not right tunnels,
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