speech and algeria the but take a don't hold back the tide about jerry and independence. keep francis companies in africa and the pacific. in the final episode of the series, how does their explores how the bits of fine for the french empire still resonates today? imagine tis french t colonization on out his era. the opposition fights as a gaining grounded northwest syria concepts, a major government health cities, and the aiming to take to mascot how big a set back is this for president bush, charlotte sub. this is inside story. the hello welcome to the program and the bulk of the balance of power may be shifting

and syria is they'll have to present push on either side of the gain control of some major cities and just a weak opposition forces in the northwest of over run a level i'm how about and they say they have the sites now set on damascus. the assault is led by the group higher, higher alshaun. it says the fights is, are responding to attacks by government troops on the stronghold. it live. the city and ministry is reinforcing. his lines of defense on allies that ron has bull and russia, promising to help but kind of push back the opposition advance is the sides. government really on the thread? and what does this flare up after a period of relative calm mean for millions of city and civilians? we will discuss these issues with our ex best. but 1st the support mohammad, how did you this is the moment. so position fight is in syria. capture the home, one of the largest cities in the country. the fights is of great significant gains in just one week, taking major towns and cities. the forces led by the high up the heavy to some

degree, received the heroic welcome. the emotional scene of through opposition forces fried what they said, what political prisoners re united them with the whole of the human. i'm a i'm from hima. my god, save us from the government. about 1500 people in prison. nearly 50 in each room, like god in the house, has them been out of the cafeteria and how about this is what the lead off i got the heavy lashawn had to say. when i informed me, my brothers then which i had been fighters have begun to enter, how much to commence the one that does injured in syria for 40 years. i asked god almighty to make it a conquest with no revenge. but the conquest of mercy and fellowship, the capture of how much came off the days of heavy fighting with the serial on me. which has been supported by rainy and bucked fighters and russian that power. the

opposition forces have not taken control of several major cities, including alaska, which is on a major highway that connects the capital to the laws and coast serious defense. and mister however, consists the ministry's retreat from hama was to allow his forces to recruit. elizabeth marty. hi, i would like to consume the what happened and how much is only a tactic. how forces are still surrounding the outskirts of the city and the height of compared to carry out all the constitutional and national judy. this is the biggest challenge to the side of government is it's also comes up to type of on sets and seeing the region a subs allies around them has the law has been embroiled in a conflict with this rel, over the past year. and russia has been escalating its effects in ukraine, the position. this is an opportunity i window of opportunity here in order to change the balance of 4 underground unit. the cd collision has to be in that existing or cause for political solution to the crisis says 2018 has long been

a strong hold of the opposition to president for charlotte and his father houses who is responsible for the mexican that killed 40000 people in 1982 the war in syria has long been dormant, with several sites holding on to their regions. but the development of the past week showed the situation on the ground can change very quickly. hello, mohammad hug. elders, era, se inside story. the well, i guess today can divide deep insights into why the full of how about another government control towns and cities is so significant and it's tumble there. he's nobody base to in london, hired, hired as a city in columbus and academic. well, it's on the road and an incorrect jerome driver on is the senior analyst on, she had unloaded conflicts at the international crisis group. and also of the book for me. she had to politics. how soon you, how do you embrace politics?

and here in the around come bravo is professor of government at georgetown university cuts on a politic scholar on the middle east and iran right, well welcome, i sweet. so i story to, 03 of you joy. but one, if i can start with you, the picture, as we know is rapidly changing, isn't it in syria at the time of recording opposition forces? i've taken a level, i'm, a homes appears to be teetering. possibly next, we're already hearing that some aside lloyd list, maybe starting to leave a capital damascus as well. jerome, firstly, in strategic terms, how do you explain these lightning advances about a student opposition? i mean, this is something extremely significant. it's just a week ago, the position managed to take control of it, or i little just in a few days now thinking about how to put them to the going into into homes. so this is extremely significant because those parents who have never been court ordered by dee, by them to petition this stuff, have demonstrated in fayetteville,

the opposition to the san virginia. it probably needed them onto the thousands of protest as to be split into the streets. but the down to position never mind is to get go to destitute. so this is the 1st time that the position is punch or such a piece of land or so it's much more call the nation than before. the under position is much more organized, continue to doing it mostly by the defense, and those are very, very inputs of achievements that i don't think you've a down to put this needs to have did not expect to move forward. so keep no the, the redeem lloyd size, or even the dresser community. so kindly, the elements of surprise has been hugely important. they hired, hired as a mon, born and raised a and a level. how do you see this? so what do these gains mean? particularly for the fates of a capital damascus. um, the 1st of all, thank you for having me. i think a 0 mention they are very significant because if you look, for example, the, some of the importance of capturing some is not only related to the strategic

significance of how much so, which would allow them to capture homes. and potentially a cut the that the sort of fluids um connections between damascus and it goes to the area. but it also shows the what happened in, at loopo is not only uh, limited to northwestern syria, but now or the eyes are basically on homes and potentially later, maybe even the moscow. so it's, it's shows that the, the, how fraudulent the region is and but then shut off advancing all the way to damascus matter on how to explain in military strategic terms. how high out to your house will hate. the says, we will call it for the rest of the program, has been able to sustain this pressure on bush auto side and his forces as well. obviously the syrian army has been weakened because of more than

a decade. the warfare. and of course, it's primary patrons and supporters. iran, russia, hezbollah themselves are weekend or uh, their attention is diverted. uh, iran is, uh uh in uh, is locked in the tit for tat with is a, we're still waiting to see if the 3rd round of iranian attacks on, uh, is there any targets will ever materialize? um, probably not. uh has been law, has been tremendously weekend, military lead because of israel's invasion and devastating war on 11 off. of course, russia is diverted in ukraine and russia's abilities in syria, our limit to really to air strikes. and so what we see is a very disciplined, the militia organization that has been taking its time

knows the lay of the land knows the psychology's that are involved and sensibilities of people. so far the leaders have been saying all the right things to gain a popular support among the people and there they appear to have on the ground up at street level legitimacy, which the government is sorely lacking. so that explains the rapid advance. in many ways, we're talking about relative outside the show of view is the lay of the land with a map of the situation in syria at the moment that shows those key advances by opposition for 2 forces. obviously the stronghold is always been it lab. they've obviously taken a left o not pushing down the m 5 highway. the distances between these cities is not very far tool between the hours of homes and about a 45 minute drive between homes and damascus. a we're looking at about 2 hours on the road, verify constant traits is area where these advance is all happening at lightning

speed. hyatt, what is clear, as we've just said, is that russia, russia, iran, assault access is deeply, deeply vulnerable. right now, isn't it? i mean, h t, i seems to have seized the initiative. russia clearly distracted and stretched over the war and ukraine. iran has bull a distracted by what's been happening at 11 on all sides full seas, and those who support i'm able to significantly grew regroup. do you think to push back the opposition? i think this is a question that many people are trying to. ah, so right now. but the answer to the question, i don't think it lies within the syria. it lies mostly elsewhere because it wouldn't mainly depend on the ability of a size to a gant or the attract or inquiries, press you, whatever you wanna call it, at his allies, to double down on some more resources without those resources are coming as

a and in terms of a boost on the ground, military equipments or airplanes on the air strikes so far, the regime has not been able to a, to gain as much support as he was at the remaining ones and need in order to recapture what these stopped was defending those areas along recapturing, however, while we have seen in the past few days, does not mean that the regime might not be able to do so because now the risks are higher, not only for the regime, but for a it's support as well. if you look at homes, we are talking about demand supply lines to hezbollah and 11 on we are talking about the a, the area that is basically connecting at the coastal areas where russian forces are

based on the muskets. so that sticks are higher for the region for year on um, for us as well. and us maybe my could be a potential to sort of fox to behind, sending more of forces to support us. however, even if they're able to send more, some more, some more forces, i think that the question then becomes windows forces be use to adjust, defend the areas currently under the control of the resume in order to prevent the position groups from advancing to new areas or then they be would have, then they would be used to a stop reversing a position, a gains recapturing the areas they, they were lost all of the as the to be a to be sort of a seen by a sofa the what we have seeing and what we're seeing on the ground is that the regime is still not able to defend the fix that the ground,

that the areas they did the controlling. and maybe we, we might be able to see more uh, the seats. i'm more games for position groups, especially to jerome. um, the side leadership has shown throughout the civil war that it is very capable of schools to come to offensives. as the opposition forces forces push south towards traditional aside strong holes. areas where there's a large holloway population, the family being part of that community. what do we have to pay the state response to be? i think it's going to be extremely difficult for the step to respond because the photo got it fixed, so it keeps my 2015 the original pulled up. actually for down the, the rigidity survives because that russia intervened with a guest about. and so going to allow turbo for i me to she has allied with the, with the regime from even this has been lied to. you want to show me the chef and

phone interview done on the grounds. so now with the recent events off showing you that's without the step of the above the would you cannot actually honda distribution by itself. and it's quite likely that this tradition of $715.00 will that be tennis? no rush that does not have the same result is rush. i have different interests now as when you print and so going to the recommendations on up prison the way they used to be. you can see here now the occupied that as well and do so each one is looking for potentially what would happen would be the 1st time you've gotten the american nutrition. it does not this, we want to rate that right to a populate the past. so in the meantime, it becomes extremely difficult for the origin, because increasingly it is losing weight, so stays my tire of associates, weaponry tanks, munitions, etc, etc. those both are losing parts of it's sort of joe, some of them are giving up themselves to jump to position and it keeps getting it to use moving simply that mutari initiative. right. and when we are looking at the other meanings of fighting funds for high level, we bought it,

but we speak about me that's we just want to come back home of the the way expect from that basis and the with the 5 to see if you much stronger on this side, some of the side of the rich him, maryland, just following off from what we've just heard from jerome. now i understand that the side is supposedly owed to a 50 percent pay rise to both. busy his forces involved in this counter offensive given that the c and economy has shrunk, would state services on that needs to be one. is that a move like this site to you? it uh indicates uh, author desperation, uh, the video circulating that show that the babs, the syrian soldiers are simply handling over their weapons. i think it's important to remember that for the last of 1213 years we've had a war economy in syria and the state. the syrian state has been singularly unable to in many ways provide services and basic economic needs for

syrians across the territory. but only in cities that need areas that it has control, which as we've seen over the last week, has progressively shrunk. but maybe if i may, i think it's important to remember as my colleagues have said, that we seem to be at the precipice of probably what will be picked on make changes in the strategic map of the region. if indeed, homes of falls, iran will lose its strategic foothold in syria and lebanon. and in that case, it's likely very likely to eventually go nuclear sooner than later. that we have not new optimism on the part of turkey and a kind of turkey really throwing its weight as a regional super power. of course, tragedy and civil war will continue in syria because it's one thing to

invade and attacks and capture a city. it's quite another to be able to hold on to it on administered. so it could very well be that were on the verge of something really major in the middle east. that will significantly change the strategic landscape for a number of years to come. if we all the data experiencing trim is before a major us quaker across the region, and it'd be really good to understand what these term is actually be. and why they started to jerome. i thought to talk about as h t, as in particular and its as lead to abu mohammed out gilani, i mean the group formally placed the legions to, i'll call you dial giovanni's believe to have previously worked for how bucket, how bug duddy the from leader of iso jerome is part of your research. i understand you have spoken to some key figures in the opposition in syria. i mean, how would you explain the journey?

the h t s. and indeed, how gilani has made in becoming the pre eminent power in northwest through the binding politicians. when we look at the some of those around you will find motions the inside of the gee, what does it be leaving you? the pragmatic, the beginning, the photo changes, and so i think we should focus on the same as for, for what is the, is that either part edition yes, on this to that is pretty decided just to verify that we send the state. that's what the strategic mistake that does not lead to anywhere. that's what the project that he believes in. and then to make sure he has taken his route from a smaller entities. so that's usually had the group to what not with allowed to position left meant that's about the city that these fish on in the, in a big bottle stillia. and that's willing to play a role for the future. still. yeah. you had also proven to be quite the anything isn't to put addition, you know, given take approach to

a range of actors. you can get back to where somebody confessions to the population that lived on the can sort of a few as a group. and now it's a starting point for him. what his next big, what's next to because it's the major challenge by controlling on it. but of course, funding come up with them to the core controlling pumps or the eyes on him, both from the international community, from people in the region that are so formed it that was to live on the other reach him. and i think people are willing to, to look at what he's going to do, the felt steps website. but it's even in terms of the declaration of the statements throughout the range of actors. but not as good. the question is going to be, but you're going to happen, is it going to flow through it is a gives page to the communities to the international community of states. and that's really the question mark estimates. now, i have a full, i know from, from what you're, i'm just set that cost is one thing to take overseas. control of the cities is a very different thing to, to government, isn't it?

do you think uh h d s has the capacity to do that. but right now it's difficult to see a case in which they can control and cover all those areas and one go, especially if they do so through the current subdivision government structures. because if you look at the, the scale, the areas they have captured, they are bigger than the areas they have a use to control and northwestern, syria. they don't have the financial resources, mine power to be able to capture them. so without a much a needed the the help from the international community in terms of the humanitarian and in terms of non humanitarian uh supports in order to restore services, provide a social uh, services there. a ensure that essentially commodities like water, electricity, um, brands are provided as be difficult for stairs to really at shoulder, all of the,

uh and its uh, the, basically by itself alone. however, this is a test. uh, i think for the the, the coming days and weeks would it be able to, uh, show us on reveal because if at the end of july he is able to really convince them that there is a 3rd way that is not directly linked to cooperating directly with the group on himself, then maybe that will attract more support on more uh the funding is basically an access of the it'd be difficult for them to the feet, defend and provide adequate services in those areas. but my rhonda, it appears as if the age the trying to also create some sort of social movement as they storm to these particular towns by particularly releasing prisoners to imagine that they will be some kind of up swell from the grass roots in cities like

a level and then how about around in the homes and supports of these offers oppositional sizes. and also they have trying to make it clear to people in these particular times that they've taken a this isn't a wall of religious quest. of course, given the groups post associations should minorities belief there should christina should otherwise believe them well, the proof is into putting i think as we just heard, the next couple of weeks would be very consequential. people really are tired of war and civil wars have a cycle they intensify. and then the peter of the tragedy of syria has been prolonged because of the involvement of so many a 4 and actors. and i think the syrian people want to see how any government, any ruler will impact their daily lives on

a day to day basis as they go to the grocery store as they have running water electricity. so i think if the new movement can deliver services on the ground can provide safety, security, food, water, electricity, then i think that would be a groundswell of support. of course, a gentleman while we discuss the political, a millie ministry implications of all of this. once again, we're looking at a massive up evil when it comes to the daily lives of tens of thousands of people across here we are fighting, we understand is displaced. huge numbers of people already. uh jerome. are we looking at another major coupon? the timing catastrophe at the moment. not necessarily because i mean, so physician has really put so the south and the human catastrophe. what happens if between processes but is to put them back to put them back into know. and so as i

mentioned earlier, i thought that the gym has the ability to do so. i mean the regime and potentially the restaurants as well. can bump some of these bases on how to label the did leap and it has done so. and that's supposed to but, but to think about these, these places for i don't think it's possible. and 2nd, i highly doubt that the contract though he would allow that to happen because of the machine. most of the refugees that i'm 3rd kid. we speak about millions of people do con somebody or they come from somebody from my own mind, etc, from those cities, and cannot accept for the cities to be retrieve by the, by the ridgemont small and for the population to people's back. so i think that's pretty much people's basis would be saved. what could happen to the regime that seems to be decided, but from how much of an off? i think that's the remaining, the hand of them to position for the time being a member of the, the region, as we know it was clearly already. here's a of a heated how my, what's happening in syria affect the, the wider the middle east and further afield even potentially as far as you are all

there, any fees to room seems to think not, but all. there are any fees in your mind of an exodus of people as well. there are, uh, there's always a possibility of fears of excess of people. we've already heard reports that people are leaving damascus. if the, if the revolutionaries, the rebels move down towards the mascot. so i think then we'll have to wait and see how the people of the capital would would react whether or not they'll stay or they will uh, try and go back to go or go to 11 on a country that is already burden this. a number of this tens of thousands of syrian refugees or, or jordan for that matter. i think uh, also, uh, uh the um, the rebels are not tested and proven. uh,

sort of administrators. and i think given the, the as law missed or the extremist background that's extremely worried for a number of regional actors. the certainly the gulf states of worried because, of course, we've already talked to for the wrong. but there's, there's fears of the unknown, of course, right? hi, i'd like to finish with you talking about the unknown and what regionally of the country sierra. i makes it over. i mean, this offensive come shortly after an approach approach. remoted studies with much between some arab nations, shall a side to side was in re add recently he had a chance to speak the, what does it all mean for have sites to see outside of the social 6 substantial pressure today. now back away quietly and see what happens. and i think for now at least if you look at the statements that were shared by, uh, officials, uh, over the past week or so,

they were still showing support for the re gene. uh now whether that we continue now and live to freeze and resume the fees and syria as, as, as yet to a b, c. and i think the major issue right now is the, i think everyone is trying to figure out how to produce key the situation is for the regime and whether aside wouldn't be able to maintain the power. despite at these defeats, i think the answer to the will then help them shape their position. whether to just fix that back this engaged from the whole serial 5 or the down and support of the resume and the hope that that might protect and save. very sure, that's the end of our discussion. gentlemen's. it's been a pleasure to have all 3 of you on inside story. hi. hi jerome. forever on better on come, robert. we are simply scratching the surface. why now, coming to terms with the how speedily all this has happened and thank you to for

watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just share a don't com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. let's facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on x and instagram. handle is as a inside story for me. they need talk on the whole team. bye for now the the war on dogs, us on the future as the middle east. if we are not going to take the opportunity to create the polishing and state today situation, we get worse in the region to model award winning or set them up. these has speaks to french former prime minister, dominique to the time it is the main difference, is that any sumani t that is shown in volume?

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arabic language to mankind. there is no title that covers the world news like we do, we revisit places the state houses are really invest in that. and that's a privilege. as a journalist, the proposition fights isn't serious, say then now in full control city, if there is a 3rd main city to full for the weapons and just a couple of days, the territory and this is all just there last and also coming the physician sizes in syria within striking distance of homes as they pushed.