as no license, i go on with say the press retreated with the color of the media hub and vital vantage point to june. the 1st truly televised war from the roof. we could see recreation at the american embassy for the most iconic images of the conflict in vietnam were transmitted to the world. this was the front row seat to the final stages of the war cycle in colorado. for hotels on old is here. the opposition fights as a gaining ground in northwest syria concepts, a major government health cities, and the aiming to take to mascot how big a set back is this for president bush, charlotte sub this is inside story. the

hello. welcome to the program. i'm the bulk of the balance of power may be shifting and syria is they'll have to present bush on either side of the gain control of some major cities and just a weak opposition forces. in the northwest of over run a level i'm hama, and they say they have the sites now set on damascus. the assault is led by the group higher, higher alshaun. it says the fights is, are responding to attacks by government troops on the stronghold. it live, the city and ministry is reinforcing his lines of defense on allies that ron has bull and russia, promising to help but kind of push back the opposition advance. is this that's government really on the thread. and what does this flare up after a period of relative calm mean for millions of city and civilians? we will discuss these issues with our ex best. but 1st the support mohammad, how did you this is the moment opposition fight is in syria. capture the home. one of the largest cities in the country, the fights is of great significant gains in just one week, taking major towns and cities. the forces led by the high up the heavy to some

degree, received the who really close the emotional scene of the opposition forces fried what they said. what political prisoners re united them with the whole of the room and i'm from hima. my god, save us from the government. about $1500.00 people in prison, nearly 50 in each room. like god, been this, has them been out of the cafeteria and hama, this is what the lead off high up the honey lashawn had to say. when i informed me, my brothers then which i had been fighters have begun to enter, how much to commence the one that does injured in syria for 40 years. i ask god almighty to make it a conquest with no revenge. but the conquest of mercy and fellowship the capture of how much came off the days of heavy fighting with the serial number. which has been

supported by rainy and bucked fighters and russian that power the opposition forces of not so you can control of several major cities including a lot of which is on a major highway that connects the capital to the laws and coast serious defense. and mister however, consists the ministry's retreat from how much was to allow his forces to recruit. elizabeth marty? hi, i would like to consume the what happened and how much is only a tactic. how forces are still surrounding the outskirts of the city and the height of compared to carry out all the constitutional and national judy. this is the biggest challenge to the side of government is. it's also comes up to type of on sets and see in the region a subs, allies around them has the law has been embroiled in a conflict with israel over the past year. and russia has been escalating its effects in ukraine. the position. this is an opportunity i window of opportunity here in order to change the balance of 4 underground unit. the cd collision has to

be in that existing or cause for political solution to the crisis says 2018 has long been a strong hold of the opposition to president charlotte and his father houses who is responsible for the home of mexico that killed 40000 people in 1982, the war in syria has long been dormant, with several sites holding on to their regions. but the development of the past week showed the situation on the ground can change very quickly. hello, mohammad hagey, how does era say inside story? the? well, i guess today can divide deep insights into why the full of how about another government control towns and cities is so significant and assembled there. he's nobody base to in london, hired, hired as a student columnist and academic also on the road and an incorrect jerome driver on is the senior analyst on, she had unloaded conflicts at the international crisis group. and also of the book

for me. she had to politics, how soon you, how do you embrace politics and here in the around come bravo is professor of government at georgetown university cuts on a politic scholar on the middle east and iran. i will welcome a sweet side story to 03 of you jerome. i wonder if i can start with you. the picture, as we know is rapidly changing. isn't it? in syria at the time of recording opposition forces? i've taken a level i'm a homes appears to be teetering, possibly next, we're already hearing that some aside lloyd list may be starting to leave a capital damascus as well. jerome, firstly, in strategic terms, how do you explain these lightning advances about a student opposition? i mean, this is something extremely significant just a week ago, the position managed to take control of it, or i little just in a few days now thinking about how about potentially going into into homes. so this is extremely significant because those parents who have never been controlled by the, by the position of this stuff, have demonstrated in fayetteville,

the opposition to the san virginia. it probably needed them onto the thousands of protest as to be split into the streets. but the down to position never mind is to get go to destitute. so this is the 1st time that the position when there's punch or such a piece of land or so it's much more call the nation than before. the under position is much more organized, continue to doing it mostly by the defense, and those are very, very impressive achievements that i don't think you've a down to position incentives not expect to move forward so quickly. now the, the re, jean lloyd size events international community to clinic the elements of surprise has been hugely important. they hired, hired as a mon, born and raised a and a level. how do you see this? so what do these gains mean? particularly for the fates of a capital damascus. the 1st of all, thank you for having me. i think as jerome mentioned, they are very significant because if you look, for example, the,

some of the importance of capturing some is not only related to the strategic significance of how much so, which would allow them to capture homes and potentially a cut the that sort of fluids and connections between damascus on the coasted area. but it also shows that what happened in, at loopo is not only uh, limited to northwestern syria, but now or the eyes are basically on homes and potentially later, maybe even the moscow. so it's, it's shows that the, the, how fragile and the regime is and the potential for advancing all the way to the muskets member on how to explain in military strategic terms. how high out to your house will hate. the says, we will call it for the rest of the program, has been able to sustain this pressure on bush auto side and his forces as well.

obviously the syrian army has been weakened because of more than a decade. the warfare. and of course, it's primary patrons and supporters. iran, russia, hezbollah themselves are weekend or uh, their attention is diverted. uh, iran is, uh uh in uh, is locked in the tit for tat with is a, we're still waiting to see if the 3rd round of iranian attacks on, uh, is there any targets will ever materialize? um, probably not. uh has been law, has been tremendously weekend, military lead because of israel's invasion and devastating war on 11 off. of course, russia is diverted in ukraine and russia's abilities in syria, our limit to really to air strikes. and so what we see is a very disciplined, the militia organization that has been taking its time

knows the lay of the land knows the psychology's that are involved as sensibilities of people. so far the leaders have been saying all the right things to gain a popular support among the people and there they appear to have on the ground up at street level legitimacy, which the government is sorely lacking. so that explains the rapid advance. in many ways, we're talking about relative outside the show of view is the lay of the land with a map of the situation in syria at the moment that shows those key advances by opposition for 2 forces. obviously the stronghold is always being it live life. obviously taken, i left a pushing down the m 5 highway. the distances between these cities is not very far tool between the hours of homes and about a 45 minute drive between homes and damascus. uh, we are looking at about 2 hours on the road. verify constant traits is area where

these uh advance is all happening at lightning speed. hyatt. um, what is clear as we've just said, is that russia, russia, iran, assad access is deeply, deeply vulnerable. right now, isn't it? i mean, h t, i seems to have, sees the initiative, russia clearly distracted and stretched over the war and ukraine. iran has bull a distracted by what's been happening at 11 on all sides full seas and those who support i'm able to significantly grew regroup. do you think to push back the opposition? i think this is a question that many people are trying to. ah. so right now, but the answer to the question, i don't think it lies within the syria, it lies mostly elsewhere because it wouldn't mainly depend on the ability of a size to a gant or the attract or inquiries, press you wherever you wanna call it his allies to the down on send more resources

with those resources are coming as a and in terms of the, both on the ground, military equipments or airplanes on the air strikes sofa. the regime has not been able to a, to gain as much support as he was at the region once need in order to recapture what these stop was defending those areas the along recapturing. however, while we have seen in the past few days does not mean that the regime might not be able to do so because now the risks are higher, not only for the regime but for uh its support as well. if you look at homes, we are talking about demand supply lines to hezbollah and 11 on we are talking about the a, the area that is basically connecting at the coastal areas where russian forces are

based on the muskets. so it's the, the sticks are higher for the region for your on um, for us as well. and us maybe my could be a potential to sort of fox to behind, sending more of forces to support us. however, even if they're able to send more, some more, some more forces, i think that the question then becomes windows forces be use to adjust, defend the areas currently under the control of the resume in order to prevent the position groups from advancing to new areas or then they be with, then they would be used to a stop reversing a position, a gains recapturing the areas they, they were lost or of the as the to be a to be sort of a as seen by a sofa the what we have seeing and what we're seeing on the ground is that the

regime is still not able to defend the fix that the ground, that the areas they did the controlling. and maybe we, we might be able to see more uh, the seats. i'm more games for position groups, especially to jerome. um, the side leadership has shown throughout the civil war that it is very capable of schools to come to offensives. as the opposition forces forces push south towards traditional aside strong holes. areas where there's a large holloway population, the side finally being part of that community. what do we have to pay the state response to be? i think it's going to be extremely difficult for the step to respond. because if we look at these historically, by 2015, the origin pulled up, actually 4 down the the rigidity survive because fat. russia intervened without a guess abroad. and so going to allow turbo fried me. she has allied with the,

with the regime from even this has been lied to. you want to show me the shots and phone interview done on the grounds. so now what are the recent events off showing you that's without these 2 type of see both the would you cannot actually honda distribution by itself and it's quite likely that this tradition of 2015 we the defense now rush out does not have the same results to use rush, i have different interests now as when you print and so on. the recommendations on up prison the way they used to be in c, i now the okay by data square and do so, each one is looking for potentially what would happen would be the 1st time you get to the american nutrition. it does not this. we want to rate their right to a property in the past. so in the meantime, it becomes extremely difficult for the origin, because increasingly it is losing was so phase my tire of associates, weaponry tanks, munitions, etc. it to both of losing parts of it. so just some of them are giving up themselves to jump to position and it keeps getting it to use, moving simply the media initiative. right. and when we are looking at the other

meanings of fighting funds for highly people, we bought it, but we speak about me that so just want to come back home of the the expect from that basis and the with the 5 to seem to much stronger on the side some of the side of the rich, him, maryland, just following up from what we've just uh, follow from jerome. now i understand that the side is supposedly ordered a 50 percent pay rise to both his forces involved in this counter offensive, given that the c and economy has shrunk, would state services on that needs to be one. is that a move like this site to you? it uh, indicates the author desperation, uh, the video circulating that show that the, the syrian soldiers are simply handling over their weapons. i think it's important to remember that for the last the 1213 years we've had a war economy in syria and the state. the syrian state has been singularly

unable to in many ways provide services and basic economic needs for syrians across the territory. but only in cities that mean areas that it has control, which as we've seen over the last week has progressively shrunk. but maybe 5 may, i think it's important to remember as my colleagues have said, that we seem to be at the precipice of probably what will be tectonic changes in the strategic map of the region. if indeed, the homes of falls, iran will lose its strategic foothold in syria and lebanon on and in that case, it's likely very likely to eventually, but go nuclear sooner than later that we have not new optimism on the part of turkey and a kind of turkey really throwing its weight as a regional,

super power. of course, tragedy and civil war will continue in syria because it's one thing to invade and attacks and capture a city. it's quite another to be able to hold on to it on administered. so it could very well be that were on the verge of something really major in the middle east that will significantly change the strategic landscape for a number of years to come. if we all the data experiencing trim is before a major us quaker across the region to be really good to understand what these trim is actually being and why they started to jerome. i thought to talk about the and h t as in particular and its as lead to abu mohammed al gilani. i mean the group formally placed the legions to, i'll call you dial. gilani is believed to have previously worked for how about alcohol, buddy, the from leader of iso jerome is part of your research. i understand you have spoken to some key figures in the opposition in syria. i mean,

how would you explain the journey? the h t s. and indeed, how gilani has made in becoming the pre eminent power in northwest through the binding politicians. when we look at the some of those around you will find motions the inside of the gee, what does it be leaving you? the pragmatic, the beginning, the photo changes, and so i think we should focus on the same as for, for what to use to use. uh, either put addition, yes on this to that is pretty decided just to verify that we send the state. that's why the strategic mistake that does not lead to anywhere. that's the project that you believe. the other 2 methods you have taken his route from a smaller entities. so that's usually had to go to what not with allowed to position left meant that's about the city that these fish on in the, in a big bought the ophelia and that's willing to play a role for the future. still. yeah, you had also proven to be quite the anything isn't to put addition, you know,

given take approach to a range of actors. you can get back to where somebody confessions to the population that lived on the can sort of a few as a group. and now it's a starting point for him. what his next big, what's next to because it's the major challenge by controlling on it. but of course, funding come up with them to the got controlling pumps or the eyes on him, both from the international community, from people in the region that are so funding that was to live on the other region . and i think people are willing to, to look at what he's going to do, the felt steps website. but it's even in terms of the declaration of the statements throughout the range of actors. but not as good. the question is going to be what you're going to happen, is it going to flow through it is a gives page to the communities to the international community of states. and that's really the question mark that remains. now. i have the following on from, from what you're, i'm just set that goes is one thing to take overseas. control of the cities is

a very different thing to, to govern. isn't it? do you think uh h d s has the capacity to do that. but right now it's difficult to see a case in which they can control and cover all those areas in one go, especially if they do so through the current subdivision government structures. because if you look at the, the scale of the areas they have captured, they are bigger than the areas they have a use to control and northwest and syria. they don't have the financial resources, mine power to be able to capture them. so without a much a needed the the help from the international community in terms of the humanitarian and in terms of non humanitarian uh supports in order to restore services, provide a social uh, services there. uh, ensure that essentially commodities like woods or just the um,

breads are provided as be difficult for stairs to really at shoulder, all of the, uh and its uh, the basically by itself alone. however, this is a test. uh, i think for the the, the coming days and weeks would it be able to uh, show us on reveal because if at the end of july he is able to really uh, convince them that there is a 3rd way that is not directly linked to cooperating directly with the group on himself, then maybe that will attract uh more support on more uh uh, funding and uh, basically an access of the it'd be difficult for them to the feet, defend and provide adequate services in those areas. but my rhonda, it appears as a phrase the trying to also create some sort of social movement to as they storm to these particular towns by particularly releasing prisoners to imagine that they

will be some kind of up swell from the grass roots in cities like a level and in hymer and in the homes and supports of is offers oppositional fighters. and also they have trying to make it clear to people in these particular times that they've taken it. this isn't a war of religious quest. of course, given the groups past associations should minorities belief there should christina, should otherwise believe them. well, the proof is in the putting, i think as we just heard the next couple of weeks would be very consequential. people really are tired of war and civil wars have a cycle they intensify. and then they, peter of the tragedy of syria has been prolonged because of the involvement of so many of for an actors. and i think the syrian people want to see how any government, any ruler will impact their daily lives on

a day to day basis as they go to the grocery store as they have running water electricity. so i think if the new movement can deliver services on the ground can provide safety, security, food, water, electricity, then i think that would be a groundswell of support. of course, a gentleman while we discussed the political, a millie ministry implications of all of this. once again, we're looking at a massive up evil when it comes to the daily lives of tens of thousands of people across syria fighting. we understand is displaced. huge numbers of people already. uh jerome. are we looking at another major coupon? the timing catastrophe at the moment? not necessarily because i mean, so physician has really put so the south and the human catastrophe. what happens if between processes but is to put them back to push them back into know,

and so as i mentioned earlier, i thought that the gym has the ability to do so. i mean the regime and especially the restaurants as well, can bump some of these bases on how to label the it leap and it has done so. and that's supposed to but, but to think about these, these places for i don't think it's possible. and 2nd, i highly doubt that the country that though he would allow that to happen because of demetri, most of the refugees that are into kid, we speak about millions of people. do con somebody or they come from is about that from the moment essentially from the cities and cannot accept for the cities to be retrieved by the, by the regime on small and for the position to be pushed back. so i think that's pretty much the, those bases would be saved. what could happen to the regime that seems to be decided, but from how much of an off? i think that's the remaining, the hand of them to position for the time being a member of the, the region as we know it was clearly already. here's a of a heated how might what's happening and see we are affect the,

the why the middle east and, and further afield even potentially as far as you are all there any fee is to room seems to think not, but all there any fees in your mind of an exodus of people. well, there are, uh, there's always a possibility of fears of excess of people. we've already heard reports that people are leaving damascus. if the, if the revolutionaries, the rebels move down towards the mascot. so i think then we'll have to wait and see how the people of the capital would, would react whether or not they'll stay or they will try and go back to go or go to 11 on a country that is already burden this. a number of this tens of thousands of syrian refugees or, or jordan for that matter. i think uh, also, uh, uh the, the rebels are not tested and proven

a set of administrators. and i think given the, the as law missed or the extremist background that's extremely worried for a number of regional actors. the certainly the gulf states of worried because of course, we've already talked before the wrong. but there's, there's fears of the unknown, of course, right? hi, i'd like to finish with you talking about the unknown and what regionally of the country sierra. i makes it over. i mean, this offensive come shortly after an approach approach simone, it's starting to emerge between some arab nations and push all a side to side was in re add recently you had a chance to speak to what does it all mean for have sites to see outside of the social 6 substantial pressure today, you know, back away quietly and see what happens. and i think for now at least if you look at the statements that were shared by, uh, officials,

uh, over the past week or so, they were still showing support for the re gene. uh now whether that we continue now and live to freeze and resumed the fees in syria as, as, as yet to a b, c. and i think the major issue right now is the, i think everyone is trying to figure out how to produce key the situation is for the regime and whether aside wouldn't be able to maintain the power despite at these uh, the fees that i think the answer to the with that and help them shape their position. whether to just fix that back this engaged from the whole serial 5 or the dollar and support of the resume and the hope that that might protect and save. very sure, that's the end of our discussion sentiment. it's been a pleasure to have all 3 of you on inside story. hi. hi jerome. forever on better on come, robert. we are simply scratching the surface. why now,

coming to terms with the how speedily all this has happened and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just share a don't com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. let's facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on x and instagram. i'll handle is as a inside story for they need talk on the whole team. bye for now. the. i'm assuming you can't in try of so the stance trial at the international criminal code for his actions, his lawyer adamant to acquit 10 fights, the case of plus the lines between victim and path to try to on questions whether the i c. c is, but a new form of colonialism. we are talking about. maybe judges will belong to the

industrialized world fair to of violence. witness on alex's era, all through a decade of honoring individuals and institutions working and translation between arabic and faulty. how the world language is shay come on? the award for translation and international understanding is hosting it's 10 towards serve. on the 10th of december 2024 in doha katasha. shea come on the award for translation and international understanding from the arabic language to mankind. the latest news i didn't ask more than 15000000 employ titles, but only 30 percent of them say tons and also 1000000 were just the companies of this country. it's less than $200000.00 with detailed coverage 1st. so it's like this top secret rolls across different areas from the house of the story. this is

going to say activists say that in a while we're in a quality of life. this could lead to some feeling the pressure that the lives of simply too much of a button. there is no channel that covers world news like we do, we revisit faces. the state houses are really invest in that. and that's a privilege. as a journalist, the population sciences in syria say they've taken the southern city of that or is the 3rd major city to full to i'm groups and just a few days. the other ones are in jordan, this is all just here. a lie from dell also coming up is waiting for his bomb being to set up refugee camp in central garza of east $21.00 and ends

including children that.