the the . ringback the opposition fights as a gaining ground in northwest syria concept. some major government health cities in the aiming to take to mask is how big a set back is this for president bush sharla sub. this is inside store the hello welcome to the program and the bulk of the balance of power may be shifting

in syria yourself to present the charlotte aside. we gain control of some major cities and just a week, opposition forces in the northwest of over run a level on hama. and they say they have the sites now set on damascus. this also slide by the arm group. hi out patio, sean. it says the fights is, are responding to a tax by government troops on the strong. how is it live? the city and ministry is reinforcing. his lines of defense on allies, iran has bull and russia promising to help but kindly push back the opposition. advance is the sides. government really on the thread. and what does this flare up after a period of relative coming from millions of city and civilians? we will discuss these issues with our ex best. but 1st the support mohammad, how did you this is the moment. so position fight is in syria captured home, one of the largest cities in the country, the flights of mate significant gains in just one week, taking major towns and cities. the forces led by the how to how data some homes

groups receive the who really close to the emotional scene of the opposition forces fried what they said, what political prisoners re united them with the whole of the human. i'm a, i'm from hima. my god, save us from the government. about $1500.00 people in prison, of nearly 50 in each room like god in the is the been out of the culture. and how about this is what the lead off high up the heavy lashawn had to say. when i informed me my brother's name, which i had been fighters, have begun to enter him to commence the one that does injured in studio for 40 years. i ask god almighty to make it the conquest with no revenge, but the conquest of mercy and fellowship. the capture of how i came off the days of heavy fighting with the serial nomic, which has been supported by iranian bucked fighters and russian that power the

opposition forces have not taken control of several major cities including alaska, which is on a major highway that connects the capital to the move in coast series defense and mr. however, insists the ministries retreat from how much was to allow his forces to recruit alice this, marty, i would like to consume the what happened and how much is only a tactic. how forces are still surrounding the outskirts of the city, and they're highly compared to carry out all the constitutional and national judy. this is the biggest challenge to the side of government is. it's also comes up to type of on sets and see in the region a subs, allies around them has the law has been embroiled in a conflict with israel over the past year. and russia has been escalating its attacks in ukraine. the position. this is an opportunity, a window of opportunity here in order to change the balance of our underground unit . the cd collision has to be in that existing or cause for political solution to the crisis, says 2018 has long been

a strong hold of the opposition to president bush auto last time. and his father hospice, who is responsible for the mexican that killed 40000 people in 1982. the war in syria has long been dormant, with several sites holding onto their regions. but the development of the past week showed the situation on the ground can change very quickly how many heavy elders era for inside story, the august today can provide deep insights into why the full of how about another government control, towns and cities is so significant. in this tumble little there, he's nobody base to in london, hired, hired is a still going to call him missed and academic also on the road and an incorrect jerome trevor on is the scene that have list on jihad unloading conflicts at the international crisis group. and also of the book forms you had to politics. how soon do you, how do you embrace politics and here in the around come bravo is professor of

government at georgetown university cuts on a politic scholar on the middle east and iran. right. well, welcome, a sweet side story to all 3 of you jerome. i wonder if i can start with you. the picture, as we know is rapidly changing, isn't it? in syria at the time of recording opposition forces? i've taken a level i'm a homes appears to be teetering, possibly next, we're already hearing that some aside lloyd list may be starting to leave the capital damascus as well. jerome, firstly, in strategic terms, how do you explain these lightning advances by the student opposition? i mean, this is something extremely significant just a week ago, the position managed big quarter of the order. i little just in a few days now thinking about how about potentially going into into homes. so this is extremely significant because those parents who have never been controlled by the, by the, on the petition this stuff. how about demonstrated in fayetteville,

the opposition for this young virginia informed me that the hundreds of thousands of protest as to be put into the streets, but the down to position never managed to get go to destitute. so this is the 1st time that the position when his punch or such a piece of land or so it's much more call the nation than before. the i'm, the position is much more organized, continue to doing it mostly by that sense. and those are very, very impressive achievements that i don't think he wrote down the position itself, did not expect to move forward so quickly. you know, the, the redeem lloyd size, or even the dresser community to kindly the elements of surprise has been hugely important. they hired, hired as a mind born and raised in a level how do you see this? so what do these gains mean, particularly for the fates of a capital damascus. um, the 1st of all, thank you for having me. uh, i think uh, as jerome mentioned, they are very significant because if you look, for example, the, some of the importance of capturing some is not only related to the strategic significance

of how much so, which would allow them to capture homes and potentially cut the that sort of fluids and connections between damascus on the coasted area. but it also shows that what happened in, at loopo is not only uh, limited to northwestern syria, but now or the eyes are basically on homes and potentially later, maybe even the moscow. so it's, it's shows that the, the, how fragile and the regime is and the potential for advancing all the way to the muskets matter on how to explain in military strategic terms. how high out to your house will hate. the says, we will call it for the rest of the program, has been able to sustain this pressure on bush auto side and his forces as well. obviously the syrian army has been weakened because of more than

a decade. the warfare. and of course, it's primary patrons and supporters. iran, russia, hezbollah themselves are weekend or their attention is diverted. iran is uh uh, in the is locked in the tit for tat with is a, we're still waiting to see if the 3rd round of iranian attacks on, uh, is there any targets will ever materialize? um, probably not. uh has been law, has been tremendously weekend, military lead because of israel's invasion and devastating war. on 11 off, of course, russia is diverted in ukraine. and russia's abilities in syria are limited really to air strikes. and so what we see is a very disciplined, the militia organization that has been taking its time

knows the layout of the lab knows the psychology's that are involved as sensibilities of people. so far the leaders have been saying all the right things to gain a popular support among the people and there they appear to have on the ground off at street level legitimacy, which the government is sorely lacking. so that explains the rapid advance. in many ways, we're talking about relative outside the show of view is the lay of the land with a map of the situation in syria at the moment that shows those key advances by opposition for 2 forces. obviously the stronghold is always been it lab. they've obviously taken a left o not pushing down the m 5 highway. the distances between these cities is not very far tool between the hours of homes and about a 45 minute drive between homes and damascus. a, we're looking at about 2 hours on the road, verify constant traits is area where these advance is all happening at lightning

speed. hyatt, what is clear? as we've just said, is that russia, russia, iran, assad access is deeply, deeply vulnerable. right now, isn't it? i mean, h t, i seems to have seized the initiative. russia clearly distracted and stretched over the war and ukraine. iran has bull a distracted by what's been happening at 11 on all sides full seas, and those who support i'm able to significantly grew regroup. do you think to push back the opposition? i think this is a question that many people are trying to. ah, so right now. but the answer to the question, i don't think it lies within the syria. it lies mostly elsewhere because it wouldn't mainly depend on the ability of a size to a get or the attract or inquiries, press you wherever you wanna call it his allies, to the down on send more resources with those resources are coming as

a and in terms of the boots on the ground, military equipments or airplanes on the air strikes sofa, the regime has not been able to a, to gain as much support as he will uh, the easy ones need in order to recapture what these stop was defending those areas the along recapturing however, well we have seen in the past few days does not mean that the regime might not be able to do so because now the risks are higher, not only for the team, but for uh its support as well. if you look at homes, we are talking about demand supply lines to hezbollah and 11 on we are talking about the a, the area that is basically connecting at the coastal areas where russian forces are based on the muskets. so that sticks are higher for the region for year on um,

for us as well. and us maybe my could be a potential to sort of fox to behind, sending more of forces to support us. however, even if they're able to send more, some more, some more forces, i think that the question then becomes windows forces be use to adjust, defend the areas currently under the control of the regime in order to prevent a position groups from advancing to new areas or then they be, would have, then they would be used to a stop reversing a position, a gains recapturing the areas they, they were lost or of the as the to be a to be sort of a as seen by a sofa the what we have seeing and what we're seeing on the ground is that the regime is still not able to defend the fix that the ground,

that the areas they did, the controlling. and maybe we, we will, you might be able to see more uh, the seats. i'm more games for position groups, especially to jerome. um the side leadership has shown throughout the civil war that it is very capable of scorched us counter offensives. as the opposition forces forces push south towards traditional aside strong holes areas where there's a large olive white population, the side finally being part of that community. what do we have to pay the state response to be? i think it's going to be extremely difficult for the step to respond because if we look at it historically by 2015, the origin pulled up. actually 4 down the the rigidity survive because fat. russia intervened without a guess abroad. and so going to allow turbo fried me to she has allied with the, with the gene from even this has been lied to. uh you want to show me the shots and

phone interview done on the grounds. so now with the recent events off showing you that's without used to that, we'll see both the would you kind of actually honda distribution by itself and it's quite likely that this tradition of 2015 we the defense now rush out does not have the same results to use rush, i have different interests now as well in the print and so on. the recommendations on up prison the way they used to be in see and now the okay, by data square and do so, each one is looking for potentially what would happen. it would be the 1st time you get to the american nutrition. it does not this. we want to rate their right to a properly in the past. so in the meantime, it becomes extremely difficult for the origin, because increasingly it is losing results days, my tire of associates, weaponry tanks, munitions, etc, etc. so both of losing parts of it sort of show some of them are giving up themselves to jump to position and it keeps getting it to use moving simply the media initiative. right. and when we are looking at the other meanings of fighting funds for highly people, we bought it,

but we speak about me that so just want to come back home of the the expect from that basis. and the with the fact you seem to much stronger on this side, some of the side of the rich him, maryland, just following up from what we've just uh, follow from jerome. now i understand that the side is supposedly ordered a 50 percent pay rise to both his forces involved in this counter offensive, given that the c and economy has shrunk, would state services on that needs to be one. is that a move like this site to you? it uh, indicates uh, author desperation, uh, there are videos circulating that show that the, the syrian soldiers are simply handling over their weapons. i think it's important to remember that for the last of 1213 years we've had a war economy in syria and the state. the syrian state has been singularly unable to in many ways provide services and basic economic needs for

syrians across the territory. but only in cities and in areas that it has control, which as we've seen over the last week has progressively shrunk. but maybe 5 may, i think it's important to remember as my colleagues have said, that we seem to be at the precipice of probably what will be picked on make changes in the strategic map of the region. if indeed, the homes of falls, iran will lose its strategic foothold in syria and lebanon on and in that case, it's likely very likely to eventually, but go nuclear sooner than later that we have not new optimism on the part of turkey and a kind of turkey really throwing its weight as a regional, super power. of course, tragedy and civil war will continue in syria because it's one thing to

invade and attacks and capture a city. it's quite another to be able to hold on to it on administered. so it could very well be that were on the verge of something really major in the middle east that will significantly change the strategic landscape for a number of years to come. if we all the data experiencing trim is before a major us quaker across the region to be really good to understand what these trim is actually being and why they started to jerome. i thought to talk about the and h t as in particular and its as lead to abu mohammed al gilani. i mean, the group formally placed the legions to, i'll call you dial giovanni's believe to have previously worked for how buck i'll buddy the from leader of iso jerome is part of your research. i understand you have spoken to some key figures in the opposition in syria. i mean, how would you explain the journey?

but h t. s. adams. indeed, how gilani has made in becoming the pre eminent power in northwest through the binding politicians. when we look at the some of those around, you will find motions inside the g. what does it be leaving you the pragmatic that they've been using the photo changes. and so i think we should focus on the same as for, for what to use to use either put addition. yes on this to that is pretty decided just to verify that we send the state. that's what the strategic mistake that does not lead to anywhere. that's the project that you believe the admin to message has taken his route from a smaller entities. so that's usually had the group to what not with allowed to position left meant that's about to see that these fish on, in the, in a big bottle stillia. and that's willing to play a role for the future. still. yeah. you had also proven to be quite a, anything isn't to put addition, you know, given take approach to

a range of actors. you can get back to where somebody confessions to the population that lived on the can sort of a few as a group. and now it's a starting point for him. what his next big, what's next to because it's the major challenge by controlling on it. but of course, funding come up with them to the controlling pumps or the eyes on him, both from the international community, from people in the region that are so funding that was to live on the other region . and i think people are willing to, to look at what he's going to do, the felt steps website. but it's even in terms of the declaration of the statements throughout the range of actors. but not as good. the question is going to be what you're going to happen. is it going to flow through it is a gives page to the communities to the international community of states. and that's really the question mark that remains. now. i have a full, i know from, from what you're, i'm just set that cost is one thing to take overseas. control of the cities is a very different thing to, to government, isn't it? do you think uh h

d s has the capacity to do that right. now it's difficult to see a case in which they can control and over all those areas. and one go, especially if they do so through the current subdivision government structures. because if you look at the, the scale, the areas they have captured, they are bigger than the areas they have a use to control and northwestern, syria. they don't have the financial resources, mine power to be able to capture them. so without a much a needed the help from the international community in terms of the humanitarian and in terms of non humanitarian uh supports in order to restore services, provide a social uh, services there. uh, ensure that essentially commodities like water, electricity, um, brands are provided as be difficult for stairs to really at shoulder, all of the,

uh and its uh, the, basically by itself alone. however, this is a test. uh, i think for the the, the coming days and weeks would it be able to uh, show us on reveal because. ready if at the end of july, and he is able to really uh, convince them that there is a 3rd way that is not directly linked to cooperating directly with the group on himself. then maybe that will attract that more support on more uh, the funding is basically an excess of the it'd be difficult for them to the feet, defend and provide adequate services in those areas. but miranda, it appears as if the age, the trying to also create some sort of social movement to, as they store them to these particular towns by particularly releasing a prison. those to imagine that they will be some kind of up swell from the grass roots in cities like

a level. and then how about around in the homes and supports of these offers oppositional fighters. and also they have trying to make it clear to people in these particular times that they've taken it. this isn't a wall of religious quest. of course, given the groups post associations should minorities believe there should christina, should otherwise believe them or the proof is in the putting i think as we just heard, the next couple of weeks would be very consequential. people really are tired of war and civil wars have a cycle they intensify. and then they, peter of the tragedy of syria has been prolonged because of the involvement of so many of for an actors. and i think the syrian people want to see how any government, any ruler will impact their daily lives on

a day to day basis as they go to the grocery store as they have running water electricity. so i think if the new movement can deliver services on the ground can provide safety, security, food, water, electricity, then i think that would be a groundswell of support. of course, a gentleman while we discussed the political, a millie ministry implications of all of this. once again, we're looking at a massive evil when it comes to the daily lives of tens of thousands of people across syria fighting, we understand is displaced. huge numbers of people already. uh jerome. are we looking at another major coupon? the timing catastrophe at the moment? not necessarily because i mean, so physician has really put so the south and the human catastrophe, it would happen if the process but is to put them back to put them back into know. and so as i mentioned earlier,

i doubt that the gym has the ability to do so. i mean the regime and potentially the restaurants as when can bump some of these bases on how to label don't easily and it has done so and that's supposed to but, but to think about these displaces for i don't think it's supposed to. but and 2nd, i highly doubt that the contract, so she would allow that to happen because of demetri, most of the refugees that i took you to speak about millions of people do con somebody, or they come from selected from the, i don't mind, etc, from the cities and ducky cannot accept for the cities to be good for you by the, by the regime on small and for the position to be pushed back. so i think that's pretty much the, those bases would be saved. what could happen to the regime that stooped to be decided, but from how much of an off? i think that's really preventing the hand of them to position for the time being a member of the, the region, as we know it was clearly already. here's a of a heated how my, what's happening in syria affect the, the why the middle east and, and further afield even potentially as far as you are all there any fee is to room

seems to think not, but all there are any fees in your mind of an exodus of people as well. there are, uh, there's always a possibility of fears of excess of people. we've already heard reports that people are leaving damascus. if the, if the revolutionaries, the rebels move down towards the mascot. so i think then we'll have to wait and see how the people of the capital would, would react whether or not they'll stay or they will try and go back to go or go to 11 on a country that is already burden this, a number of tens of thousands of syrian refugees or, or jordan for that matter. i think uh, also, uh, uh the, the rebels are not tested and proven a set of administrators. and i think given the,

the as law missed or the extremist background, that's extremely worrying for a number of regional actors. the certainly the gulf states of worried because of course, we've already talked before the wrong. but there's, there's fears of the unknown, of course, right? hi, i'd like to finish with you talking about the unknown and what regionally of the country sierra i makes, you know, i mean this offensive come shortly after an approach approach them own it started to emerge between some arab nations and push all a side to side was in re add recently you had a chance to speak to what does it all mean for have sites to see outside of the social 6 substantial pressure today, you know, back away quietly and see what happens. and i think for now at least if you look at the statements that were shared by, uh, officials, uh, over the past week or so,

they were still showing support for the re gene. uh now whether that we continue now and light the freeze and resumed the fees and sir, yeah, as, as, as yet to be seen. i think the major issue right now is the, i think everyone is trying to figure out how to produce key. the situation is for the regime and whether aside, wouldn't be able to maintain power despite at these uh, the fees that i think the answer to the will then help them shape their position. whether to just fix that back this engaged from the whole serial 5 or the down and support of the resume and the hope that that might protect and save. very sure, that's the end of the discussion sentiment. it's been a pleasure to have all 3 of you on inside story. hi. hi jerome. forever on better on come, robert. we are simply scratching the surface. why now, coming to terms with the how speedily all this has happened. i'm thank you to for

watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just share a don't com for further discussion, go to our facebook page as facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on x and instagram. handle is as a inside story for me. they need talk on the whole team. bye for now. the in a split 2nd. a little girl full of life, joins the ranks of hundreds of children and because was lost at least one. due dated scott, but by no means broke, she looks to the future and have a key on that show has saved on medicine pipelines. all that

remains on the jersey, the destruction on a scale never seen before. with the risk of nuclear warfare, which is highest and decades, a group of rough schuler, and mega saki, somebody who has been awarded to 2024 nobel peace prize, which efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons. join us from oslo for an exclusive interview. with the witness campaign group in the hall, and he done to you and he had a powerful witness testimony. the nobel interview lives on al jazeera, the, there's no limit to how a dream continue to study in your own adventure. no counter

everything's. there is no channel that covers world news like we do, we revisit places the state houses are really invested in that. and that's a privilege. as a journalist, the opposition forces in syria and say they take in the southern city of dera, it's a major city to fall in just a few days. the cloud. this is out there in life from dell also coming out. colors prime minister says my mention has returned to garza sees potholes after the recent years selection.