the the . ringback the a less for the full and i told position forces in syria of c major cities, including a leftover unload slaves of to say faith, little know, resistance from the serial ministry apart from strikes involving russia with damascus and the opposition sites with president bush. alice said scott, this is inside the

hello and welcome to a special edition that out to 0 is inside story coming today from the doha for him at 2024. i'm. we're focusing today on the dramatic developments that are taking place in syria, transforming the political map of that country, the opposition of move from it led to a lot po, to how i'm a. i'm now they are on the edge of homes. they will say control areas in the south and in the east. so what does this old mean? does it mean the end of the a sad regime and in the circumstances foster moving circumstances? is that any opportunity for talks, diplomacy, what we have some top experts? joining us here on the serial charles lister was the director of syria and counter terrorism programs of the middle east institute. the refer as the senior advisor, your pin institute, a piece of saw some of those. and the dean is chief executive officer of my then

the which is a civil society groups. thank you very much for joining us. i'm going to start at it's a hot one predicting and a thing and serial will. this region is hard, but i'm going to start with the big question. i'm sure the man in the street wants to know, and let me talk start with you saw some all we look at the full of a sat. i think we're definitely looking at a significant change in syria. there's no turned back from this moment whether it is the end of the southridge him or not. it's definitely the beginning of the change. what change we want to see is up to all of us to work on this, particularly us syrians. this is above on a syrian issue, and that's been an issue, but it's also up to how we steer the regional and international dynamics so that it does not end up. we do not end up and simon thing and you do political order that does not necessarily meet the best creations of the store and people will get into more detail in a moment. charles, but kind of sat this survive this and you'll viewed as things stand now,

given the significance of what we've seen play out over the last 10 to 11 days. his days off of it's just a question of time for me as to is the question of time on how the end comes about . i think what we're watching play out right now is a pivotal bottle in homes. and by all accounts today, it's been a very bloody bustle. the russians appear to have been to the more directly than we've seen elsewhere in the country. but given the developments we've seen in terms of opposition, expansion across the south of the country. that now roughly 35 kilometers from the outside outside limits of, of damascus. if there's no way of assets can survive this. but it is the question of a cellphone says how syrians gathered together and present an alternative. but it's also ultimately also question of how the international community responds to this crisis, given the fact that there are well established differences within and across the international community on this issue. the real quick, tight fuel,

quick production of the us, the sauce and, and child said that it's the beginning of a new era. it's difficult to go back to where we, where it's 10 days ago. and it's difficult to reverse. most of the games that have been made and now is the time for cooperation between the internet know, stakeholders come 6 policies and also the syrians to be society. and i think it's very important to make sure that it's a stretch to you. i'm glad it's during an open to process the the syrians have uh, hang on for 12 years, almost. no. uh so this uh, this this time and this transition for them that's important that they are involved and lead to the movements. it's charles, i'm in a surprise attack, we're all talking about and it took everyone's that he took to all the media will by surprise. but my understanding is it was actually planned for a few weeks earlier. and it was to a key that stops here. yeah. so the offensive as it stood,

festival was initially intended to be much more limited than anything we've seen play out. and it was initially planned for early to mid october at that point. as far as i'm aware of at least the touch, intervene to put a stop to it, but it never the less code several weeks later, it's important to recognize as well. but in mid october, when it was stopped, the russian apples put back to the skies of northwest in syria for the 1st time in 4 months and conducted a full day bombing campaign. so they clearly knew about the plans to. so for the, for the stakeholders on the ground, none of this was really a surprise or certainly shouldn't have been. but certainly as far as the international community is concerned. honestly speaking, people weren't paying attention to the detail that was necessary to know that something like this was coming. on the other hand, no one predicted the switch collapse of the machine. nobody know, even the groups involved. the original intention was only to capture the west and countryside of alaska and stopped merging, showing indiscriminately targeting civilians. that was it. so they too was shocked by the speed at which machine front lines collapsed and thus continued and

established the moments. and we've seen play now, let's dig into some of that. so son, i mean, charles was saying the russians seem to have an inkling back in october. but that seems to major intelligence by the, by the russians, by the, by the syrian regime and the radians this time around. what i take from this mostly is a reminder that this above own as a this is an example of how fragile the situation in syria is. it's also, it's represents the failure of containment policy that everyone. and even in the past few years, we're dealing with syria through it's up to, by normalizing with the sides regime enhanced by normalizing with a defacto situation. i think the big surprise was to the extent to which this regime in this situation is for dial and which is a quarter to all of us really to think beyond that. and the next step for jo murray, i mean they just run away, didn't they?

in many cases, yes, what is interesting is that it is trace the weakness of the syrian army over the past year or so, decision routine has tried to reform is to professionalize. it's that it's do this ration that it has been a seizure and it has been quite surprising for c withdrawal or like some soldiers feeding away. um, and this is also like um, shooting a cycle because this is a similar, demoralizing other other soldiers in the south and also origin supporters in damascus. so it has the uh, also an indirect effect. charles, i mean, let's look at russia and iran because they all the ones that have saved side in the past. i mean, iran, i assume, is quite weak and because of recent events and his beloved particularly badly at the great is why we don't see more response though from russia or. so it's a good question. i mean, everyone on the prayers seem alliance was on the front line in west and the left.

when this all started, russian special forces took so i took casualties as did hezbollah, as did the oil gc. so it wasn't that they want that. so i think the question you asked earlier about the surprise is the right one. they should have known this was going to happen at some point. so they shouldn't have been cool on surprise. i think the main thing is, is that over the last several years, neither russia nor wrong, nor hezbollah have had a significant ground presence. the russians have an an ad base. they have uh, naval vessels off the coast. but they don't have thousands of troops all over syria . neither did the radians and neither do hezbollah. well not to them. the day was who was on the ground, on the machine side, defending those front lines. and it was primarily siri and soldiers who as the read, you said, you know, the certain military has fragmented, it's dictate from the inside. it's a conscript majority ami, an off to 14 years of horrendous suffering in syria on all sides as ordinary human

beings. so it shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise that the morale within a conscript tommy off to 14 years is not very high. and i think it's right to raise the question, you know, the international community, it either given off on the syrian crisis or decided to normalize outside, presuming that there was no nothing else on the table to do an intern amongst out the serial people and their experience had completely being taken out of the calculations, but this is where the searing people and their experiences have driven all of the recent developments and they've been clearly very dramatic. so some tell us you're in touch, i'm sure with lots and lots of people in syria right now. give us an idea of the reactions that you're hearing. i'm some of very excited celebrating somebody i would assume a little bit worried. and we shouldn't underestimate that because because of the uncertainty that the springs, but definitely the an overwhelming sense of change that is that is that's driving joy and happiness and a sense of, of

a really victory that is, that's, that's, that we've been waiting for for long but it's, i think, what's driving this is the potential for change and the uncertainty of what change is coming. and the fact that the, this needs the work and the efforts of everyone to ensure that it's a change that meets desperation of the city. and people is a critical issue with that, with that overwhelming sense of, of, of, of change that brings happened is to so many there's also underlying the fears. again because of the uncertainty of the change and, and, and, and, and who may lead on that. but it's also so on the humanitarian side of things we are witnessing, the targeting of civilians invite them civilian facilities by there is in forces. we've unfortunately,

because it has the whole operations have also resulted in and force displacement of tens of thousands of not hundreds of thousands of, of the syrian people, particularly goods a majority. so some sort of demographic engineering might also also results from this. but we've also seen as the forces targeting civilians, so the good is forces drag to the majority chord, the slipped force, the so what is very fundamental in the change that we see is that it's hopefully the end of a side centered role of, of syria which means it opens up possibilities for, for change that we need to be and the driving to talking about being in the driving seat and the driving seat of the current military operation is hired to be around the shop. now there are lots of other groups off the charles, but they seem to be the lead fights is in this they well once,

if you trace that in each back part of i'll call you to the leader. i believe we'll have adult gilani has been giving interviews, striking a much more moderate time. you've been studying them very closely, should we believe? that's the $1000000.00 question at this point. i mean, i would say the roots of the small pragmatic motor at stones pre date way free day. the recent developments, they began in 2015. in fact, just as was a, you know, i would, i, there's, i read re watching some videos this morning of the spokesman of this group. but then spokesman of this group, when they 1st re branded the name in an attempt to show that they were different in 2016. and he was using the exact same language that gilani is using today, 8 years later. so literally the same time and all that just the same, tends to define who that's supposedly not all now. so 1st thing is to acknowledge is that that has been consistent,

say is this isn't some southern change. on the other hand, whilst this group i do think has moderated, some walk is ideological stats, it remains politically tutorial. you know, that rule in northwest interior is involved arbitrary arrests of critics torture in prisons. so there's plenty of reasons to be concerned justifiably about, about this particular group, but from terrorism stones, that's where i think that has been some change. and to a large extent, i think some of those changes on the ground have transformed in much greater trust with other on factions that would previously have been fighting this group on the ground 8 years ago. and that's, that's changed a lot. because marie, the international community, you're gonna have to make some decisions. now that there are a major player in syria because they still sit on that list of the united nations of entities designated for terrace, as they do. and that's the reason why it's also not allowed to speak to them directly for some of the international actors which makes it even makes it even

more difficult to address the situation now. so that's, this is the future decision to make as charles was saying, i think what is important is that the group has defense itself on the transnational . you had this agenda. so that's one of the criteria and that's, so that's important. and then i think there is many, there are many ways to, to engage with these groups, the indirect ways. and there is a change now for inferencing their behavior or the way they were dealing with the what is coming up. and so y'all and if there was a transitional note, so some people you speak to all they concerned about this group because they'd be making efforts. and i was surprised, for example, to see that they're reaching out to religious minorities, including the out of white community. and also in the lab potency billboards with q r code. so and then linking to a workshop best situated they could be informed of, of, of the instructions coming from h t. yes. well, i think the, the,

the overwhelming feeling is fear from the, the resumes response to this, because this is what we have seen over the past 13 years. the redeem and it's russian allies, again targeting the those areas captured by the opposition in groups is the biggest fears, but definitely also concerns over the, the how would these areas be administered? but at the same time, the seeing people being freed from prison, political that the news people home with families have thought they were killed under torture. on being set out free after the ends of years. many people, thousands, tens of thousands returning to their homes again after tens of years, as again, is, is, is driving help amongst a and the, the issue of how we, a syrians can manage to live together with all the diversity ethnic and religious

diversity is something that we have to work on, and it's not something that is given or drive that's by um, military groups. this is where i think is the critical issue that you have to be seen and how we manage this 2 or 3. we've talked about it wrong and russia what's about to care. they clearly have some leverage on the situation present. the other one said the target is damascus. we hope for this advance to continue without any issues of a controlling the situation. we're just trying to keep up with a situation. and so that's a complicated question. first of all, it's more than took. you has leverage to keys the, the outside or winner at the moment of what type of has been happening. so took, he's not formally supporting the, the, the group heating the, you'll find, see about the moments. but they have some contacts and it's likely that's this what the reason couldn't have happened with all the keys to test the green light from turkey. now, even if touchy didn't triggered this with duration,

it presents opportunities for to key, you know, 1st of all, on his priorities. and 1st the, the, the, the, the positivity to push back a curbs and cookies groups that are close to churches border. and 2nd, the return of richard cheese were leaving now in turkey, the cooking for that would be a perspective of return. if the, if, if things develop well in the or is those that have been recaptured by position groups. charles, we took to the role and about homes being the place. now, explain to of you as i'm to the audience here why holmes is really so strategically important. well, i mean, in terms of the most populated western spine of syria pumps is dead in the middle right on the north, the south and 5 highway right between a level to hammer, both of which have been taken and then south to it, damascus. and delta dental has now being taken pumps is also at that kind of

junction point, which would, if they are in theory of homes, which a full damascus would be cut off from the coast. where aside on here, so the white hotlines lie. so it's geographic position right in the heart of the country, right in the middle of this highway on this north, the south road. but it will, so it's, it's access to access west to the coast, make it of a numerous strategic significance for many how would have been the kind of how had been the steel wall through which the opposition for 15 years have never broken through an ever been able to, to continuously link the north to the south. now that that's broken home says the last front line for the regime as far as on as far as i'm concerned. if i'm suppose a site is a 100 percent, he's finished, it will just be a matter of time and how that gets that. and as i said earlier, it does look like the russians are trying more hans, and we've seen until now to make comes a front line that doesn't get moved. but looking at the momentum all across all

across the country. and it's very hard to see how the regime forces that are in homes. we'll see this as the see the defense being a cause that is worthy of dying for when really everything, you know, the writing seems to be on the world. and so sound, i mean, homeless was the early part of the war, one of the places where some of the heaviest battles and, and was desktop was okay, was it not? that's very true. and we need to factor this. and actually the, the, the secretary and dynamics and, and homes but, but also the fact that homes has what is some of the worst violations that the communities and funds. and i hope this is the beginning off change and, and there, it's definitely i definitely agree with charles that i'm taking over funds would change the game for the side. but it would also change the game for so many people

who have been awaiting just as an acknowledgement for very long time. 3, if, if homeless falls and this child says it's a break, the sad territories divided into to the coast is divided from damascus. that's a big problem to the russians, isn't it? because the launch enable base, which has to be given to them is a suffering base for 49 years that is on mac coast talk to us. and so is the main advice us. exactly. and that's when rush, i will have a decision to make and what are the priorities? do they wants to continue supporting aside the regime? or do they narrow their, their priorities in the, in syria and focus on this is started. you get to vintage that. we present the novel base intel truth and the url base in that like how that allows brush out to project power in the region. and these is a key assets. us or no rush. i invest so much in surround industry and prices. so i think that's really a matter of, for the to choice capacity to use also

a little bit because we are actually is constrained with the, with the war and ukraine and, and they'll also factor such as the relationship with the round and into a key that was probably a factor in introduced that his choice, but so that's a short choice that he's hanging right now. i think charles, what's the space for diplomacy now in these very fast moving developments here are the doha for them where we are right now. we understand possibly very soon, possibly right now there was a meeting taking place between the 4 ministers of russia, ron, and to kia. does the diplomacy need to be much proved? doesn't match a to be determined that, that a still on a full amount as it's called a softer a, a place in context on where they had numerous meetings that didn't get very far. yeah, the one in the 122 meetings i think and this will be i think the 23rd. um, so yeah, i mean, well, has cold being cold this donna, for my house for several years now really being the only full month that has

determined dynamics and realities on the ground in syria. so in theory, yes, although i suspect that recent developments may also challenge that particular format. more broadly, i think the international community has to be mobilizing around the syrian issue right now, in part, because frankly, some of the international community have got it so dreadfully wrong. over the last 18 to 24 months and the read just this needs to be let now by the united nations, because that process has got completely bulk down. but in part that is for the we've spoken about the russians and their role military. but the russians have been a great asset to this, that regime diplomatically they've use 17 times. i think that we tell them the un security council. they've managed to slow down the diplomatic process. i covered long negotiations in geneva when liked opera. he was the, was that the special ed boy and one of the western diplomats of the time called the

chief syrian negotiator impass of the filibuster. because all he was trying to do was stop and the thing going anywhere. now that's a good point in this with the, for the video, this may change the dynamic of the security council in, in the diplomatic industry, internationally. but i would like to highlights that you in the process has been booked down. as you said, it's mainly because of the refusal of a side to engage in any process and to have any sort of dialogue. so that was the main issue and not the processing itself. and so, do you any is best place to conduct any type of dialogue, a political negotiations, but a service instead, it's very important that is, it is as inclusive as possible. and that it takes into accounts also the reality on the ground and, and the policies to, to come fix an actors for i keep on the ground and in control of some areas. so so now i assume that needs to be some immediate talks on the humanitarian situation

because that i'm told is getting pretty urgent. it was already humanitarian. need to about the world was watching, where it all time high with 7 out of 10 of 10 syrians are calling to monitoring the assistance. the latest figures i've seen from the u. n. is a for the $370000.00. people have been displaced from the homes and recent dice. and the 1st thing i think diplomacy needs to work towards is protection of civilians, protection of the villas, from all kinds of violations, including the bombardment of the sideboards you might have to live which continue until the moment to target civilians. and again, civilian areas and civilian facilities, but also from engineer displacement processes, force displacement processes and other forms of violation. so protection of civilians remains a priority. and then in the meantime, until we get to a stage where the political process is functional and is and is,

is actually due to presenting the interest of through and people themselves. we need to be very aware of how we, how the administration of the defense areas that are getting out of the control of the government will be established and working towards an independent civic administration of these areas is a priority. so we do need to think and how we respond to the needs in these areas through this mindset by creating an estimate administration that's worked through with the institution. the current states institutions and with the efforts of the kind of people on the ground, not role and and g o models, charles, i mean there's also a difficulty if you get to a stage where the sad raising is gone. and i know i'm jumping ahead of myself for a bit here, and i'll give you 2 recent examples of the americans. one, i've got a son where they left all the old old stay and the government, and then iraq, with everyone who's been for the boss policy,

was expelled. both turned out to be pretty disastrous. they did, i would say there's not necessarily any easy way to deal with with that challenge, particularly given that we are in yes, 54 of the side families. right? so the extraordinary kind of bureaucratic challenge of picking that out, but also allowing bureaucrats to remain in place will be difficult. um, the family ties within, within the government operates us some, not a problem. i take some, arguably all problematic that will be an enormous challenge. um, as will be the remnants of the entire, you know, intelligence operates us, which has long been a problem. you could foresee outside going, but much of those institutions will still remain. and as we've heard from syria and people since day one of the, of the revolution, that is the issue that has to be removed. i think the one thing that we can count

on is that a mixed 14 years of crisis. and particularly in more recent years, i my, my, my assumption is the vast majority of syrians, including within the state to have survived and stayed within resume health areas do won't change. it's just that flipping the regime or turning against the regime wasn't foreseen in the personal minds as an option for so long. and so i have a feeling that if i side was out of the way, that problem was out of the way that we have a higher chunks of the syrian people coming together and figuring that out. and maybe we might have seen in, in others in other contexts. so sound, all you as up to mistake, i'm and i'm thinking saddam hussein went and there was an, a pulling. we'll get that for you when other places in the arch spring toppling is not always and it hasn't happened yet. that may be, it won't happen, but it's not always the arms. but i am very optimistic. i'm optimistic because of the capacity we have developed a certain civic actors. and again, because without advertising the root causes of the crisis in syria, no change,

no change can come. now that we are looking at a future where potentially the sides regime is out of the picture, there's a lot to capitalize on. thanks to that 1st of theory and civic on, on actors. so i am definitely optimistic. what matters is that we, we work towards maintaining states as the technicians in the process of throwing out the, the south region. we and on an optimistic note. thank you very much to our panel today, charles list a marie for this the and so son, i'd say a dean that ends the special edition of inside story. remember, we produce this program every single day of the year, and you can watch it on out a 0 on television. i'll just do it will come on youtube. thank you very much to already and see it at the doe for them 2024. and thanks to you for watching,

bye bye for now. the a no license, i go on with say the press for treated with the car without a media how and vital vantage point to doing the 1st truly televised war from the roof. we could see recreation at the american embassy for the most iconic images of the conflict and vietnam were transmitted to the world. this was the front row sheet to the final stages of the war cycle and caravel war hotels, oil just here. the

the the color on several venue. it's great to have you with us. this is the news, our life from the coming up in the program today. the opposition fighters in syria and make major advances saying they are now just outside the campus of damascus. at least 2000 government troops pull out of syria retreating into a rock confronting themselves in.