this is in is reporting a lot of the records are really, really big. we've seen this done an in depth coverage. i'll just say it was teens on the ground when you close to the heart of the story. the clock and how the top stories here on i would sarah and syria and so be mocking that 1st friday press and so full of the aside regime people from across the country travel to pray at historical. i mean, at the most, in the heart of the capital, crowds are gathering in the square. you can see in there are some of the many serious expense which has come up left by the head of in your administration. how much i'll shut off as cold on syrians. so, you know, some of the from abilene, i congratulate the syrian people on the victory of the blissful revolution on coal

on them to take to the streets, to express the joy of this achievement without firing bullets in the, or allow me the public off to that let's join hands to rebuild the country and i stayed in the beginning with god's help, we shall be trial them. russell sarah has been at them. he had lost to witness the situation the 1st time. it is sort of moments the location place in damascus or might yeah, the most that was built in the 7th century and has seen a lot. i've seen, i've been with this office to sort of this country, but this is an exceptional movement. the average, the, the closest little more than half a century has collapse, and this is the 1st to my prayer. after that you redeem, for more than half a century until seen. here's a brutal civil war. your see and syrians from all across the country are coming to here. i've been talking to celia is what company from apple articles. it is the

pause hope vehicle lease and leveled on these 2016 by the reduced forces. i've been talking to people who are coming from homes. things has remained 3 years on the g, a, c, h. i have been talking to the people who are coming to them, how much, and how much has been massacred wise. i've been talking to people, what comes from data, do assume that all the people with the need, please in touch here, and i have been talking to the people, what coming from the rich, the mass is worked out, will have been dest would have been, have been exposed to the kinds of weapons both to redeem the water coming. put them on the safe moon. that's what redeem has attacked them by the chemical weapons. but that's the area for them is not over there here. said god, celia, none, freedom. yes, like just identity blinking has been in the tech is capital to discuss the latest developments in syria. he met with the for a minister, how confident in ankara, both sides of said they're working together to ensure

a peaceful transition united states and take you back. rival opposition groups in parts of syria, the family members of tens of thousands of missing syrians and searching for the relatives believe to have been detained in prisons and the president decide. so i'm have been looking through id called scots of across them as a base near the capital, damascus. meza is also served as a detention center since 2011, about 850000 people to be forcibly disappeared or often in prison. that's according to estimates for this are in network for human rights and over night is ready. as striking this central garza has killed at least 36 palestinians, including several children as many as 80 people were injured. the live isn't being brought to like the hospital for treatments. the attack talk did multi story, apartment buildings and all of this right. in the future, you come full of tears and rescue workers search through the revel,

putting people to safety, press it being held for those killed russia. it says it's loans to launch scale missile attack on ukraine's energy infrastructure rushes. defense ministry says the attack is in retaliation. ukraine's use of us supplied resolves which can reach deep inside russian territory. meanwhile, on the grounds is intense fighting between russian men, ukrainian troops around the eastern city or across residents that are being moved elsewhere. they say the city has no electricity or volta and is under constant shelly as russian forces closed in vice president a mental macro and has announced his pick for prime minister as sensitive as a politician no front. so a battle is considered a close ally of macro is expected to present the list of cabinet ministers in the coming day. right, right. the headlines got more news coming up here. not 0 right off to the bottom line. the

a. hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. is it runs footprint across the middle is shrinking? let's get to the bottom line. the, in the decade since the iranian revolution of 1979, the world has witnessed a muscular iran that wanted to export its ideals and spread them around the region and around the world. iran is dominated politics and for air countries for years. yemen, lebanon, syria, and iraq. but more recently, it seems that things are changing. so are we witnessing and iran 2 point? oh, that is strategic. we contract it from its previous regional ambitions. today we're talking with ronnie in american political sciences valley nicer professor of international relations at the johns hopkins school of advanced international

studies here on this special edition of the show at the doha for him and cut our thank you so much for joining us today. this is an over the last year i just loved to get your sense of the middle east and the ron's place. and it because it seems to me as if is really united states had been re shaping the region and really profound ways. iran used to seem to be writing high and a lot of the countries how do you see it now? you're absolutely right. when, when the october 7th attacks happened the day 1st year, it looked like iran and it's excess of resistance. i'd really coordinate those rail, turned the tables on it and looked very strong in the region. and then the tide of war changed. first of all, the gaza was decimated in many ways, and then his bullet found itself in a corner because it had stipulated that he needed a ceasefire in god's that'd be 40 degree to a cease fire 11 on. and when that didn't happen, then is there any pulls off an intelligent school of killing natural law,

the whole page or attack, and then decimating the leadership of his by law as well. and then in the past week we've seen the unraveling of syria. so at least the eros strategy of, of using levon on as a, as a wedge against israel is no longer operational and, and now that it's loses syria as well. it means that for now its hand is cut off of lavon, at least the way in which it had as it was controlling syria and lebanon. and that was a bridge with the rock and roll. and that kind of shad crescent is not broken. not time will tad, whether it be wrong, can rebuild. mean it's a staggering change and fortunes. staggering change in the chessboard. and i think a couple of the key things at the top hoggard feet is watching the by the administration. american president joe biden, kind of tried to calm down is really prime minister netanyahu try to demonstrate, restate, seems like the only one that seemed to be restraining themselves at biden's instruction

. was it wrong? and yeah, and right and, and is real kept going right through the comments of the white house and, and proceeding, i mean, is, is beeping at yahoo really the unbelievable winner when we shut see'd because this can also be like 1982 at the beginning is rid wedding to 11 on expelled a piano, puts each debate root. it looked like an absolute victor. and then at, uh, you know, we ended up with hezbollah and then, you know, it took a number of years, but this read was forced out of 11 on by his bullet by year 2000. so it also depends on what is really does with this. but there's no question that iran and his well no, we're not prepared with the kind of for us that the, that, that his, well, that is really a exercise 11 on, in gaza. and then they also were, we were caught off guard by the intelligence. cool. that is really having had 11 or not you run would be an absolute lose, or is rate would actually use this moment to do something positive 11 on

a serious garza. but if he does that, it could you wrong, could survive to fight. and now today, what do you think are you think they're going to do something positive? i mean, it's not your instinct. no, because you see the iranian, see this as a long war. they've lost the battle. they haven't lost the war. and an israel, on the other hand, has won a massive battle in a very decisive way. i surprised everybody, but it might misread the momentum and try to overreach. so i think de ronnie and calculation is that the old model of the way they managed is reyland. devonte is gone, or by there they wipe down is wiped out exactly as not just going like it's really, you know, what we might need. we have to also be careful to not to over read into oh, well then i want to, i want to ask about this because i may be wrong in this assessment. but again, and you know, ron's motivations and, and use so much better than i do. but it seem to me like, ok it, ron was, was

a little cautious and careful about wanting to own regardless situation too much. that's why you don't have to be really interested in the fact that, you know, a lot of you use it. you had has the law you had no even under yvonne was, was, was not a sold on the idea that they should, they should plunge into gaza. and i mean they, they, they had helped arm and israel acted like they had plunged when that's because also his beloved, his butler actually drove this issue not tear off at not strong. know was the one who, for reasons of his own view, that as a she organization, they had to be on the side of the palestinians in order to be accepted by the larger out of world. from october a started at joining the battle and then would not pull out unless there was a ceasefire in gaza. this was not a decision that was made into her on. this was a decision that was made in the route. i mean we, we,

we are also looking at the old picture in many ways how sudden i started. it became far more important after so they money. americans, gibson the money in many ways. he was the successor to selling money. i think the iranians now rude a fact that they, they, they allow that to happen. iranians only long save or that's his bullet except a ceasefire. not make it conditional on, on, on sandwich. because they, they, they saw that, you know, this is going in the wrong direction. in fact, when is red killed, smile, honey, i into hon. you're wrong, did not react to the killing of honey. and that time in the hold that the by the administration was just about to get a ceasefire in gaza, which would then bring a ceasefire to, to, to level. so in a way, you know that it. so it's just important to note that, that, you know, it is not like to run was man, it micro managing, this is the case of the tail wagging the dog a bit. and so the iran is not caught with the consequences. you're absolutely right

. where i'm saying it's not as catastrophic as one would say is his bullet has been down. great, it's such an expense that is not a threat to israel, but it is strong enough to remain a power and let her know if that is really occupies south 11 on if it, you know, you are settlers showing up, you know, up to the latania river and trying to claim land then, you know, would be in a very different situation. and then is read basically could, could create this circumstances for next hezbollah to emerge. now i'm trying to understand sort of a tale of 2. israel's, is it a tale of incompetence followed by competence or was this a broader plan now is there is intelligence, it's usually competent. but at 1st of all, they've probably didn't take the palestinians and how most serious and so is the danger. if you don't respect your enemy and you also become too confident to yourself, that's actually the danger that is really maybe facing now,

that they may underestimate his will underestimate the wrong thing that we, we, we slap them around and off. and now they're 2 week, we've devastated. that's the danger. so they were not paying attention. they didn't take time off seriously. but where they had their attention, which is on iran and on his beloved, they proved to be extremely compet. uh, but why, why i think this moment should not be over. you know, everything that is real has done so far. one thing it has not managed to do is to restore this sense of confidence that its people had on october 6th, 2020. when they saw that they're a 100 percent in uniform palestinians, and that this item domain is impenetrable. and yes, a median that's i knew i was devastated, leaven on has hit the wrong, but there's enough misses, have penetrated, is res i or and don't that. and even for these really population, this is a different game. so do you think the insurance has been re established?

no, it doesn't mean that are savvy but, but it says that the ron is weaker than his right when he comes to massages, etc. but we're now entering a period of arms race between miss out of defense and iranian mishaps. iranians were defeated intelligence wise as well. it was received intelligence wise, they will try to rebuild their intelligence. they will try to, you know, comp company do it again to, to provide all the is really penetration. they understood that iran that understands that, okay, if there is no his will. and there's no syria. the only determines they have is their miss size and, and their drawings and potentially a nuclear umbrella, which would make them make them immune. so, so we're going to it, we're entering into, into a nother phase. so israel success and 11 on, and syria, essentially how we change. we're not going to stage 2 or you going to have to the 2 point oh, version of this rivalry by the iranians i've taken enough from,

from this also says that israel is, is red, does have holes. is rain was vulnerable in october 7th. and is rain for, and as i said, for instance, is red could not defend without american support at all, all of the, all of them is sites. and so they're going to play with these things. and then israel also has to plug these to valley, you know, washington d. c, at least as well as you know, it's not out of the way around you but, but, but really interested in a fundamental question. and that is, did the united states what, what we've seen transpire in the region? did it want it consciously and deliberately, while it pretended not to, while it was pretending to caution restraint while it was trying to contain netanyahu? while after that saw, you know, over 40000 people in killed in gaza, many women and children that wanted a different outcome. and, and i'm just wondering if there was sort of a 2 level game where one it was trying to show restraint. but in fact,

now you see the united states, a name is hochstein, and other negotiators for a president biden kind of taking credit and be pleased with the outcome. and i don't think they have planned it at 1st of all they will, they will completely caught off guard on october 7, their, their seo to have them either lease was at peace between israel and. and so i would be, or avi, i was eminent, they had a secret deal with their on to keep well sir sullivan had said things had never, you know, because i had not been to stable and exactly, and, and from october 7th onwards, they were playing catch up with that, he's really policy that was that they continuously were trying to restrain. and then they had to acknowledge and go further. so is written with hits uh, the iranian consulate in damascus, united states, we spent 2 weeks trying to persuade their own, not to react. and there was killing off honey. i enter on. it was spend a lot of, uh, back channel to convince it on not to react and he was on and on. so the, when, when, when is your ed would do something and then okay, the sky didn't fall,

they would take credit for it. but it's not like they know where they me the least is going like this. me the least that they are handing over to the trump administration and still the floor from it may false as we are looking. a left is really in a position that is gone, is, is it virtually depopulated. garza may expel the population from there for the 1st time. the issue of annexation of the westbank is on the table or out of allies or have been, uh, are sort of out of their comfort zone to put it, to put it. uh, they might lease and i'm a none of them are happy with this scenario. the united states has come across in the region as weak as, as without having applied and unable to impose order on the region the way they used to do in the past, whether it was a good or bad or to be bush plants. and, you know, reagan, they always order to sort of service has been a cost to us standing in the car. yeah. anybody sitting around the world watching

this, we say okay, is room 10 claim that we do that or right. but not the united states. and the espouse view of the united states from the beginning was that you should stop the carnage in gaza. you should not be going into the west bank. you should not invade levon on. you should not, you know, poke the bear in iran. and did he did all of these things? and just because this, this guy hasn't fallen does not mean that this war that started in october 7 is still not going to end up in a capacity. i think. exactly, because the most important part of this war, which is the palestine initial in gaza and westbank is not solved. and actually the worst me, yes happened, which is $6000.00 and population. the hold of me the least could crumble as a consequence of that. i mean, at that, the idea that you, you, you, you, you might actually really witness gradually to a 1000000 palestinians pushed out. or that the westbank may go in the direction of

granite. you stabilized jordan, crizotti wise, egypt, saudi arabia, it may change to who or this picture that you mentioned in 11 on syria. this may oil change in a way to be candid. i kind of thought with the axis of resistance of iran, the who to use, you know, how masa has the law as being a new excess of resistance of your ron. no rush on north korea and china cooperating on these conflicts, but there seems to be new tensions even there because of what's happening in syria . do you agree? i agree, but you see the problem is that so far the us policy is so aggressive with all 3 of them at the same time, particularly economic choice. yes, i know that the forces of keeping them together is bigger than the forces of splitting that the us does not have a nuance policy of saying, you know, 1st of all, what's the lowest hanging fruit in this 3 and what is the biggest threat and the sweet, and then 1st of all, like you said, okay, iran has been weekend. maybe this is

a time actually for the united states to actually seriously engage it on in negotiations and, and actually begin to pull it away from russia and china. because after all, those are the much bigger global powers that, that united states has to be. and then how do we pull russia away from china and, and the way the us use the same ships against all of them at the same time, i mean trumps as sort of bricks is. i'm going to put the 100 percent out if on all of the right not, not here is as it should be. let me see who uh who i can pull out of the brakes. who can i bribe to bring out of the brakes so that i can isolate china? i mean, both by then and, and from say the china is america's biggest. charlotte, she's, that's true. iran is not. and then 1st there on the, in russia or not existential threats, the united states, you have to find a way to pin them away. and basically isolate china. so yes, i do think what you're saying is, is feasible and the 5, you know, you,

we weren't that sort of a case in jerry and moments in american foreign policy. he would think that way. but, but we, we sort of got ourselves into this position that we can take all of these enemies all at once with the same tools. the result of which is we actually the ink cartridge in the emergence of a, your asian land. last, which goes from russia to china and south to the gulf, which is much bigger than iran alone, or russia alone or china. did joe fight and make a terrible mistake of not really reaching out and try to consolidate something with them earlier before the trumpet administration came in. was that a a real blunder when his 1st blunder was that he didn't negotiate something with them when he 1st became president? and still this crew crew was still in office. uh it in, in back in 2020. he thought, well, you know, from a maximum pressure is working,

just leave it be. i don't want to deal with their off. and the result was that hard liners came to power. iran went to 60 percent and richmond. it became a much bigger headache. and then this fellow came to power. now you're right. yes. so brandy those behind him and again, he didn't want to deal with it. but the reality is that look when we said reform has been wrong. it's almost like we expect some kind of a last nose opening it. let's not be that hopeful. well, what do you need is, is a, is a government and it wrong or ordering or on that is pragmatic enough to want to sign a ceasefire deal with the united states on the nuclear issue. regional issue that they moved big would have to get some benefits on it, but it would give them enough incentive to move away from russia and china. and that's possible, i think exactly because there has been, we can't, it is open to that. so not only the supreme you the brought this president brought this up, team of diplomats that negotiated the nuclear, the back to power. they have the same repeatedly in the past few weeks that they

are interested in talking to the trump administration. so we'll see where the trump would bite, but e, we don't, we're not going to get to a piece deal with the wrong, the total. but we can actually arrive at a, at a situation where, you know, you arrive as a set on a nuclear and a regional ceasefire, where there are that lowers the temperature in the region. the lower the degree of nervousness in the gulf, which, which really doesn't one war because the whole economic business models are based on piece and, and also allows the region to sort of take its breath. i, it's better for getting out of state. it's because then it can focus on china and russia, i guess just finally, for a 2 part question. you know, i've been struck over the many years. i've been watching this at how consistent the misalignment spar between the united states in particular and iran that when iran was ready to do a dealer, a grand bargain. you know, united states gave them

a cold shoulder. you know, when united states was more of a negotiating mode, iran was in a difficult space. and so i'm just sort of interested as you sort of look forward. is there any way that you don't end up in the worst box? if we're talking about game theory, where you run just has to get a nuclear weapon, has to develop that capacity because it seemed the deterioration of that situation . so much is that where you think we'll end up and then and then next to that, how do you think the saudis are looking at this whole thing? so i think they're not there yet. uh, they still are looking at their nuclear program as a, as a bargaining chip in order to uh, get somewhere with united states. i actually am not as on hold for as, as, as maybe i should be for the reason that this, that there were 2 forces in the middle east, which did not want to break through between iran and the united states. one was the golf out of countries and one was this right. and the fact that these go outside of

countries allied with israel in order to undermine the nuclear dealing washington after it was signed. and so trump came out now at least the golf out of countries, part of it don't want to play that game any. it normalize relations with their own, opened embassies, are meeting with them. so that's only leads israel, which is not favorable to an us iran nuclear nice for the united states to assert what it's, it's an interest while also protecting israel's interest. but if we, if this doesn't go the right way, i mean you're on, at some point we'll decide to go new care, but it's not going to do it right away because it's not going to build a new career pro nuclear program that we can bought. it's that easy, i mean, they've learned or less than char, from bunker busters here. so there's not going to be in the next 2 weeks where they're, they're not ready but, but they may go in that direction because we also have to know that we say all of your ons regional policies have been some kind of a hedge,

a monic aggrandizement but the reality is also an insecure states, that everything they're doing in this region is really to protect themselves. they, they want it as well. uh, because they want it to keep is really busy on its own borders. they want it to document issues because they want it to keep the united states out of iraq. and then you know, this thing got out of control. now if they don't have those ways of protecting themselves, they will look at nuclear capability and, but i, but i think, but i'm still hopeful that there's an element, not what saudis you mention. i think, you know, there's the saudis don't want their own to have nuclear capability. they don't want it wrong to be a regional hedge or not. they want to be treated as a power equal to turkey, iran and israel. they want to be seen as a great regional tower, but they're cod of managing your own has changed that. look, it too big. they're about just across the golf from you. there's no iron doing

that's going to protect them from you. they already attacked your oil facilities in 2020, and trump did not come to your defense. so the idea of trying to exit united states into a fight with, with iran is, is actually self defeating particularly now that you're investing and vision 2030 and you're one or it is what it is. and you don't want to miss us lying back and forth. you wants debility. so maybe if you talk to your on engage with their, on this incentive, put it on to, to be positive. and it has worked because in regards to where they say the hotels have not been shooting midsize at their, on since it, on a saudi arabia sign that dealing badging, the shooting at the, at the person at the other, etc. that a problem for the brits, the problem for the americans, the problem for everybody other than saudi arabia and you 8. so they now have a different theory of how do you manage iran? it's not that they're there. they're in love with their own or are not afraid of it wrong, but, but they move past that. so uh right. but if you're on goes nuclear. if the war

comes to the golf, then they have to, to reassess what they do, what a change in the chessboard valley nasser professor at the school of advanced international studies at johns hopkins university. thank you so much for being with us. thanks for having. so what's the bottom line? every nation has its ups and downs, especially if your history goes back thousands of years. for instance, china had a downward swing of about 300 years and now it's fairly swinging back big time. iran was on an upswing for decades now, and it had direct influence of at least 4 other nations powerful proxies and it was able to pressure israel and other countries. but that bubble has just burst for now . iran looks like it's contracting and in this world, power is perception. the iran 2 point oh, may adopt more pragmatic domestic policies and a more humble foreign policy. it may find better relations with its muslim rivals, even with israel. and even the united states, at least for now. and that's the bottom line,

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a safe environment, also hasn't one for children. a child psychologist takes care of the children's emotional needs in a school that is doing its best to show to protect children. however, difficult the task that the it's the clock in the hall at the top stories here on al jazeera and syrians, a mocking that 1st friday press. and so full of the side regime, people from all across the country are gathering at the historic and yet most and heart of the capital, the head of in your administration, how much i'll shut off as cold on sir, in to your night. as this report, the celebrations across syria. it's the 1st friday after the al single lashawn upset and hundreds of thousands of people are marking the victory.