his own tribal tension in northern donna is threatening the country's longstanding peace into communal violence is raising concerned, but on groups from across the border in the keno saw. so could be using the area as a base the government and says there is no threats of interest reports from bulk who in gunner vocal known as gunner's most dangerous town is under siege, not by external forces, but by its born people. it's been ravaged by dickens long leadership struggle that has continued to claim lives, including investigators, husband. it was shocked and killed recently. and i'm have the most painful thing is i haven't seen his body. his father keeps asking me mother, where is father? the crisis dates back to 1967 when i'm present king was the throne, an excise by government officials because it was replaced by a member of the course isaac drive. while the majority of this is who came into

existence and mom places i knew the list of the top dated up to 7319 century somewhere 1958. when the tape testing was taken from different places in different sizes and gotten on the on the, the contrast is assessed the regions coordinators. we feel that they should be madeleine, most of them know to recognize the or 13 that is there for the time to choose or thought to come. what as is the minority member successive rounded by the course sizes and can only leave there on leave under military escort book who's an old trading hob, connecting gunner with brick in a fossil and total is that trade? how slow down blood trickle. so the recent flare up in the community followed scene

or rights being held for them on proceed to you or died more than 40 years ago. this road marks the i know for sure the boundary that separates the precisely send the bumper succeed in both cool people on both sides say crossing, it is extremely dangerous, and whoever does is with king bear lice, and it's been like this for decades. both ways close to gun to 600, kill me to border with burkina faso that i see is that i'm groups active in brook, you know, for us. so we'll take advantage of the tension and carols here. local authorities to deny that there is any danger to say the extreme is coming from the church in the who it is not through. the cannot try it. but with the change and leadership expect it in general, and what they do change in start just go there is at risk fighting could be re ignited in both how many degrees i would use. either boca got is less than use. so now i'm jessica washington for news will be coming up soon after the bottom line. the

limits to have a dream container. stuff in your own adventure now counter and we hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. is it runs footprint across the middle. the shrinking, let's get to the bottom line. the in the decade since the iranian revolution of 1979, the world is witnessed a muscular iran that wanted to export its ideals and spread them around the region and around the world. iran is dominated politics and for air countries for years,

yemen 11 on syria and iraq. but more recently it seems that things are changing. so are we witnessing and iran 2 point? oh, that is strategic. we contract it from its previous regional ambitions. today we're talking with ronnie in american political sciences valley nicer professor of international relations at the johns hopkins school of advanced international studies here on this special edition of the show at the doha for him and cut our thank you so much for joining us today. this is an over the last year i just love to get your sense of the middle east and the ron's place. and it because it seems to me as if is really united states had been re shaping the region and really profound ways. iran used to seem to be writing high and a lot of the countries how do you see it now? you're absolutely right. when, when the october 7th attacks happened the day 1st year, it looked like iran and it's excess of resistance. i'd really coordinate the serial,

turned the tables on it and looked very strong in the region. and then the tide of war changed. first of all, the gaza was decimated in many ways, and then his bullet found itself in a corner because it had stipulated that he needed his. he's fighting gauze that'd be 40 with degree to a cease fire 11 on. and when that didn't happen, then is there any pulls off an intelligent school of killing natural law, the whole page are attack and then decimating the leadership of his by law as well . and then in the past week we've seen the unraveling of syria. so at least the eros strategy of, of using lab and on as a, as a wedge against israel is no longer operational and, and now that it's loses syria as well. it means that for now it's handy is cut off of lavon, at least the way in which it had is it was controlling syria and lebanon. and that was a bridge with a rock and roll. and that kind of shad crescent is not broken. not time will tell

whether it be wrong can rebuild. mean it's a staggering change and fortunes. staggering change in the chessboard, and i think a couple of the key things at the top hungry fee is watching the biden ministration . american president joe biden, kind of try to calm down is really prime minister netanyahu try to demonstrate, restate, seems like the only one that seemed to be restraining themselves. that biden's instruction was wrong. and yeah and, and is real kept going right through the comments of the white house and, and proceeding, i mean is, is beeping at yahoo really. the unbelievable winter when we shut. see, because this can also be like 1982 at the beginning. is rid wedding to 11 on expelled a piano, put seats, debate root. it looked like an absolute victor. and then eh, you know, we ended up with hezbollah and then, you know, it took a number of years, but this read was forced out of 11 on by his bullet by year 2000. so it also

depends on what is really does with this. but there's no question that iran and his, well, we're not prepared with the kind of for us that the, that, that his, well, that is really a exercise 11 on, in gaza. and then they also were, we were caught off guard by the intelligence. cool. that is really having had 11 or not you run would be an absolute lose, or is rate would actually use this moment to do something positive 11 on a serious garza. but if it doesn't, it could. iran could survive to fight. and now today, what do you think are you think they're going to do something positive? i mean, it's not your instinct. no, because you see the iranian, see this as a long war. they've lost the battle. they haven't lost the war. and an israel, on the other hand, has won a massive battle in a very decisive way. i surprised everybody, but it might misread the moment when i tried to overreach. so i think de ronnie and calculation is that the old model of the way they managed israel and the low

volunteer is gone by the date wiped out, is wiped out. exactly. uh, not just going like, it's really, you know, what we might need. we have to also be careful to not to over read into oh, well then i want to, i want to ask about this because i may be wrong in this assessment. but again, and you know, ron's motivations and, and view so much better than i do. but it seemed to me like, ok it, ron was, was a little cautious and careful about wanting to own regardless situation too much. that's why you don't have to be really interested in the family. right. so a lot of you use it, you had has the law you had no even under yvonne was, was, was not a sold on the idea that they should, they should plunge into gaza. and i mean they, they, they had helped arm. and israel acted like they had plunged when that's because also his beloved, his butler actually drove this issue not tear off at na, stratton law, was the one who, for reasons of his own view, that as

a she organization, they had to be on the side of the palestinians in order to be accepted by the larger, out of world, from october 8th, started at joining the battle and then would not pull out unless there was a cease firing gauze. this was not a decision that was made into her on. this was a decision that was made in the route. i mean we, we, we are also looking at the old picture in many ways how something i sort of became far more important after so they money. americans cancelling money in many ways. he was the successor to selling money. i think the iranians now rude the fact that they, they, they allow that to happen. iranians all along favor that his bullet except a ceasefire and not make it conditional on, on, on sand. what? because they, they, they saw that, you know, this is going in the wrong direction. in fact, when is red killed, smile, honey,

and to hon. you're wrong, did not react to the killing of honey. and that time in the hold that the by the administration was just about to get a ceasefire in gaza, which would then bring a ceasefire to, to, to level. so in a way, um, you know, did it. so it's just important to note that, that, you know, it is not like to ron was man, it micro managing. this is the case of the tail wagging the dog a bit. and so the iran is not caught with the consequences. you're absolutely right . where i'm saying it's not as catastrophic as one would say is his bullet has been down. great, it's such an expense. that is not a threat to israel, but it is strong enough to remain a power 11 if that is a occupies south living on. if it, you know, you are settlers showing up, you know, up to the latania river and trying to claim land. then, you know, would be in a very different situation. and then is red basically could, could create this circumstances for next hezbollah to emerge. now i'm trying to understand sort of a tale of 2 israel's, is it

a tale of incompetence followed by competence or was this a broader plan? now is there is intelligence is usually competent. but at 1st of all, they've probably didn't take the palestinians and how most serious and so is the danger if you don't respect your enemy. and you also become too confident to your so that's actually the danger that is really maybe facing now that they may underestimate his will underestimate the wrong thing that we, we, we slap them around enough. and now they're 2 week we've devastated. that's the danger. so they were not paying attention, they didn't take time off seriously, but where they had their attention, which is on iran and on his beloved, they prove to be extremely compet. uh, but why, why i think this moment should not be over. you know, everything that is really has done so far. one thing it has not managed to do is to restore this sense of confidence that it's people had on october 6th,

2020. when they saw that they're a 100 percent in uniform palestinians. and that this item domain is impenetrable. and yes, a median that's i know as devastated live in on has hit the wrong, but there's enough misses, have penetrated, is res iron. don't that an event for it is really population. this is a different game. so do you think the insurance has been re established? no, it doesn't mean that a savvy is but, but, but it says that the ron is weaker than his right when he comes to massages, etc. but we're now entering a period of arms race between miss out of defense and iranian missiles. iranians were defeated intelligence wise as well. it was received intelligence wise, they will try to rebuild their intelligence. they will try to, you know, comp company do it again to, to provide all the is really penetration. they understood that iran that understands that, okay, if there is no his will. and there's no syria,

the only determines they have is there midsize and under drones and potentially a nuclear umbrella, which would make them make them immune. so, so we're going to it, we're entering into, into a nother phase. so israel success and 11 on and syria, essentially we're changed, we're not going to stage 2 or you going to have to the 2 point oh, version of this rivalry by the ronnie is i've taken enough from, from this to also says that israel is, is where it does have holes, is rain was vulnerable in october 7th and is rain for, as i said, for instance, is red could not defend without american support at all, all of the, all of them is thoughts. and so they're going to play with these things and then israel also has to plug these things the valley, you know, washington d. c, at least as well as you know, it's the do but, but, but i'm really interested in a fundamental question. and that is, did the united states what,

what we've seen transpire in the region? did it want it consciously and deliberately, while it pretended not to, while it was pretending to caution restraint while it was trying to contain netanyahu while after it saw, you know, over 40000 people in killed in gaza? many women and children that it wanted a different outcome. and, and i'm just wondering if there was sort of a 2 level game where one it was trying to show restraint. but in fact, now you see the united states, a name is hochstein, and other negotiators for a president biden kind of taking credit and be pleased with the outcome. and i do think they have planned it at 1st of all they were completely caught off guard on october 7th, their, their seo to have the me, the lease was that peace between israel and, and saudi arabia was eminent. they had a secret deal with their on to keep well sir sullivan had said things had never you know, cuz i had not been to stable and exactly, and, and from october 7th onwards, they were playing catch up with them. these really policy that was that they

continued so we were trying to restrain and then they had to acknowledge and go further. so is written with hits uh, the iran and consulate in damascus, united states, we spent 2 weeks trying to persuade their own not to react. and there was killing off honey. i enter on. it was spend a lot of, uh, back channel to convince it on not to react and he was on and on. so when, when, when is your end, we'll do something and then ok decided and fall. they would take credit for it, but it's not like they know where they me, the least is going like this made the least that they are handing over to the trump administration and still the floor from it may false. as we are looking. a left is really in a position that is gone, is, is virtually depopulated. garza may expel the population from there for the 1st time. the issue of annexation of the westbank is on the table. are out of allies or have been uh, are sort of out of their comfort zone to put it, to put it. uh,

they might lease and i'm a none of them are happy with this scenario. the united states has come across in the region as weak as without having a plan and unable to impose order on the region the way they used to do in the past, whether it was a good or their bad or the, the bush clinton, you know, reagan knows order to sort of say this has been a cost to us standing in the classroom. if anybody sitting around the world watching this would say, okay, is room 10 claim that we do that or right. but not the united states. and the espouse view of the united states from the beginning was that you should stop the carnage in gaza. you should not be going into the west bank. you should not invade levon on. you should not, you know, poked a bear in iran. and did he did all of these things? and just because this, this guy hasn't fallen does not mean that this war that started in october 7 is still not going to end up in a capacity. i think. exactly, because the most important part of this war,

which is the palestine initial in gaza and westbank is not solved. and actually the worst me, yes happened, which is the expulsion of population. the hold of me the least could crumble as a consequence of that. i mean, at that, the idea that you, you, you, you, you might actually really witness gradually to a 1000000 palestinians pushed out. or that the westbank may go in the direction of granite. you stabilize jordan, crizotti, allies, egypt, saudi arabia, it may change to who or this picture that you mentioned in 11 on syria. this made oil change in a way to be candid. i kind of thought with the acts as a resistance of iran, the who to use you know, how masa has the law as being a new excess of resistance of your ron. you no rush or north korea and china cooperating on these conflicts. but there seem to be new tensions even there because of what's happening in syria. do you agree? i agree, but you see the problem is that so far the us policy is so aggressive with all 3 of

them at the same time, particularly economic choice. yes, i know that the forces of keeping them together is bigger than the forces of splitting that the us does not have a nuance policy of saying, you know, 1st of all, what's the lowest hanging fruit in this 3? and what is the biggest threats in the suite? and then 1st of all, like you said, okay, iran has been, we can, maybe this is a time actually for the united states to actually seriously engage it on the negotiations and, and actually begin to pull it away from russia and china. because after all, those are the much bigger global powers that, that united states has to be. and then how do we pull russia away from china and, and the way the us use the sanctions against all of them at the same time, i mean trumps as sort of bricks is i'm going to put the 100 percent out if on all of the right not, not here is as it should be, let me see who uh, who i can pull out of the brakes. who can i bribe to bring out of the brakes so

that i can isolate china. i mean both by then and, and from say the china is america's biggest. charlotte, she's, that's true. iran is not. and then 1st there on the, in russia or not existential threats, the united states, you have to find a way to pin them away. and basically isolate china, so yes, i do think what you're saying is, is feasible and the 5, you know, you, we weren't, that's what advocacy in jerry and moments in american foreign policy. he would think that way. but, but we, we sort of got ourselves into this position that we can take all of these enemies all at once with the same tools. the result of which is we actually encouraging the emergence of a, your asian land mass, which goes from russia to china and south to the gulf, which is much bigger than iran alone. russia alone or china. did joe biden make a terrible mistake of not really reaching out and try to consolidate something with

them earlier before the trump administration came in? was that a a real blunder when his 1st blunder was that he didn't negotiate something with them when he 1st became president? and still this crew crew was still in office at a, in, in back in 2020. he thought, well, you know, from a maximum pressure is working, just leave it be. i don't want to deal with their off. and the result was that hard liners came to power. iran went to 60 percent in richmond. it became a much bigger headache. and then this fellow came to power and you are right. yes. so bravely those behind them and again, he didn't want to deal with it. but the reality is that look, when we said reform us the wrong is almost like we expect some kind of a last nose opening it. let's not be that hopeful. well, what do you need is, is a, is a government's in iran or ordering or on that is pragmatic. an up to one assign a ceasefire deal with the united states on the nuclear issue,

regional issue that they moved. they would have to get some benefits on it, but it would give them enough incentive to move away from russia and china. and that's possible, i think exactly because there has been, we can't, it is open to that. so not only the supreme you the brought this president brought this a team of diplomats that negotiated the nuclear, the back to power. they have the same repeatedly in the past few weeks that they are interested in talking to the trump administration. so we'll see where the drum would bite, but e, we don't, we're not going to get to a piece speed with the wrong and the total, but we can actually arrive at a, at a situation where, you know, you arrived as a said on a nuclear and a regional ceasefire were there on that lowers the temperature in the region at lower is the degree of nervousness in the gulf, which, which really doesn't one war because the whole economic business models are based on piece and, and also allows the region to sort of take its breath,

it's better for the united states because then it can focus on china and russia, i guess just finally, of a 2 part question. you know, i've been struck over the many years. i've been watching this at how consistent the misalignment spar between united states in particular, and iran, that when iran was ready to do a dealer, a grand bargain. you know, united states gave them a cold shoulder. you know, when united states was more of a negotiating mode, iran was in a difficult space. and so i'm just sort of interested as you sort of look forward. is there any way that you don't end up in the worst box? if we're talking about game theory, where you run just has to get a nuclear weapon, has to develop that capacity because it seemed the deterioration of its situation so much is that where you think were lined up and then and then next to that, how do you think the saudis are looking at this whole thing. so i think they're not there yet. uh, they still are looking at their nuclear program as a, as

a bargaining chip in order to, uh, get somewhere with united states. i actually, i'm not as on hold for as, as, as maybe i should be for the reason that this, there were 2 forces in the middle east, which did not want to break through between iran and the united states. one was the golf out of countries and one was this right. and the fact that these go outside of countries allied with israel in order to undermine the nuclear deal in washington after it was signed. and so trump came out now at least the golf out of countries, part of it don't want to play that game any. it normalize relations with their own, opened embassies, are meeting with them. so that's the only leads israel, which is not favorable to an us iran nuclear nice for the united states to assert what it's, it's an interest while also protecting israel's interest. but if we, if this doesn't go the right way, i mean you're on,

at some point we'll decide to go new care, but it's not going to do it right away because it's not going to build a new career pro nuclear program that we can bought. it's that easy. i mean, they've learned their lesson chart from bunker busters here. so there's not going to be in the next 2 weeks where they're, they're not ready but, but they may go in that direction because we also have to know that we, we say all of your ons regional policies have been some kind of a hedge, a monic aggrandizement, but the reality is also an insecure states, that everything they're doing in this region is really to protect themselves. they, they want, it has been a lot because they want it to keep is really busy on its own borders. they want it, it all. cumulus us because they want it to keep the united states out of iraq. and then you know, this thing got out of control. now if they don't have those ways of protecting themselves, they will look at nuclear capability and, but i, but i think, but i'm still hopeful that there's an element that not with saudis. you mention,

i think, you know, there's the saudis don't want their own to have nuclear capability. they don't want it wrong to be a regional hedge or not. they want to be treated as a power equal to turkey, iran and israel. they want to be seen as a great regional tower, but they're cod of managing your own has change. that look it too big. they're about just across the golf from you. there is no island doing this. going to protect them from you. they already attacked your oil facilities in 2020, and trump did not come to your defense. so the idea of trying to exit united states into a fight with, with iran is, is actually self defeating particularly now that you are investing and vision 2030 . and you are one, or it is one of us, and you don't want to miss us lying back and forth. you wants debility. so maybe if you talk to your on engage with her on this incentive for it on to, to be positive. and it has worked because regardless of what they say, the hotels have not been shooting this size as iran since it on

a saudi arabia sign that dealing badging, the shooting at the, at the person at the other, etc. that a problem for the brits, the problem for the americans, the problem for everybody other than saudi arabian, you 8. so they now have a different theory of how do you manage iran? it's not that they're there. they're in love with their own or are not afraid of it wrong, but, but they move past that. so right. but if you're wrong goes nuclear. if the war comes to the golf, then they have to, to reassess what they do, what a change in the chessboard valley nasser professor at the school of advanced international studies at johns hopkins university. thank you so much for being with us. thanks for having. so what's the bottom line? every nation has its ups and downs, especially if your history goes back thousands of years. for instance, china had a downward swing of about 300 years and now it's fairly swinging back big time. iran was on an upswing for decades now, and it had direct influence of at least 4 other nations powerful proxies. and it was able to pressure is real and other countries. but that bubble has just burst

for now. iran looks like it's contracting and in this world, power is perception to you, ron 2 point oh, may adopt more pragmatic domestic policies and a more humble foreign policy. it may find better relations with its most of them rivals even with israel. and even the united states, at least for now. and that's the bottom line, the around one percent effect. tricity globally is consumed by data centers, many of which provide remote storage facilities or what is also known as the cloud . i'm in no way to see how one center is harnessing the energy of these fuel. what's to store our digital information without a heavy comp and footprint. and i'm just so beautiful north coast of the u. k, where the global green energy revolution, taking on new elements, tries on out your 0, examining the headline, what they wanted to do,

what they wanted to leave the without, has system unflinching to. and then there's a one side of a group of people who call themselves the research patriot and on the other side. so i'm 2 races, processes sharing, posting stories with a global audience. what is the sea life working on a rooftop? that's a single thanks to an abundance of well tough programming. vera unique fest tonight increases he fan nowhere else on the on which is the right at the new democratic nations justified this kind of behaviors. collateral damage has collateral damage. that's what we all t is leading to. what we're seeing that will allow me to push back for a moment is a new way, assistance, corporate israel, affecting it's mobile friendly from the impact of the us selections. the escalating conflict in the middle east of the urgency of climate action upfront sets the stage for serious debate. on al jazeera

we are a series of legends some clothes ruined for the stories of civilizations that mark of history was. this is where the story of vanity, how many stories to tell the searching for serious disappeared a mass grave that could contain the remains of thousands of people is found outside damascus. i'm going over there and prepared for work, human rights groups, and that the local us here, but even the regime is very prisoners in mass graves. the

hello, i'm just for washington. this is all just even live from jo. ha. also coming up we report from news and gaza for.