a unique perspectives. what could my community be gaining if we weren't spending money on all of those bonds? killing it asses. and as i said, 11 on, on her voices the world has turned its back on so that our lives do match. so many people matter just as much as any other connect with our community and be part of the conversation. we feel very unsafe because of the 2nd 12 presidency. they don't see the need and then trying to a piece of people are social media. the stream on out just the or in germany faces an early election. the collapse of johnson schultz is coalition government your, the, gets economies and trouble with the political divisions. so what, how the issues and why is the outcome so important to international? this is inside store the

hello again, non james phase. it was no surprise when german johnson, the old off. schultz lost the confidence motion in parliament, but he'd cooled himself. he's on easy coalition government authority full on the part a little over 3 is off to taking office. that was also just before rushes invasion of ukraine, a war that hit germany hod, ending the supply of cheap russian gas that fueled europe's economic and industrial powerhouse. the far right on the far left, both opposed supporting ukraine just as the united against more immigration choppy waters on trade to with china. for example, while donald trump's presidency approaches on the horizon with threats of terrace. so what all the big issues in the election and why is the outcome significant? far beyond germany's board as well to to our panel lucas in a moment. but 1st, this report from amazon mohammed vote of confidence cold by chance

that up on i've shoals, knowing the government who lose following the collapse with these 3 particularly shown government in november, shows calculated the ticket open at the elections would be his best hopes of restoring support for he's bought the pen, the understand we are a citizen, decency and seriousness, as i've already said. but the reason for my decision to end the coalition government was something else. it was caused by an even more important question. they made a question of whether on how we invested in our country, powerful them determined or small minded into small and on top. germany has utilized the biggest economy with it and decline its decisions on a way forward. or rather, a lot of them said back controls, leadership. the government's independence went cheap, rushing, goes to freely germany's fortune, to what degree by the west imposition of sanctions on prussia following its invasion of ukraine. that to get an image of crises, watson by the facing of euclid energy, by the adding to

a cost of living crisis. uncertainty to about what a weeks the european union. with donald trump threatening types, i had the fees that a ton of us present in january. germany is also exposed in differences between you and china, over trade us studies on chinese, electric vehicle inputs and possible reprisals. germany struggling automotive 6. the cost expensive business in china. the position brings the government for the growing problems. once you're leaving the country and one of its biggest economic crises in postwar history, they're very being 2 occasions when germany has paid in recession for 2 years in a row. one was hauled schroeder who at least introduced agenda 2010. the 2nd was o la schultz, and you'll standing here in saying business as usual. the issues in the election also include the country support for you create in this war against russia. opinion full of so increasing concern among voters about the risk of why the conflict with

far act on file if parties both a post father helping ukraine. another big issue is regression. germany as picking a most eating refugees than any other european country doing serious even more a photo. it has now hosted a sign up applications from cdns, following the collapse of the bush on a side street gym. defraud i a d design. i think it wants to stop all my guns from entering germany and those already there to return on on the fund. lift the side of big connect, elijah, and see the country can't cope with any more arrivals or the elections. in february, we focused on how germany would be around going forward. the choice of people will have impact will be on its board is, comes in and it is 0 for insight study. so

now let's get the inside story from, i guess today in berlin, we have over at brooklyn, a professor of european studies at stanford university in berlin and brussels. suzanne lynch is the chief of brussels, corresponded to politico and host of the you confidential part costs and in colombo, which top of rahman is managing director for europe at the razor group and leads the firm's analysis on europe. let me start with you. oh rick, i'm this vote of no confidence, no surprise. we knew this was going to happen, but it's still something that's very rare. i believe only happened 3 times in the building history of germany that they've had to have a little early elections like this. really decent to move in the political 20 bucks . and if it's necessary, it's used. but germany has a very, a continuity oriented political system. we are not divided society and to women elections and the same to decimate number off parties cluster and the same tax. so if you basically agree on most things,

then there is no need to call snap elections or to question the functioning of the government. this time the tensions within the coordination of or too big. and this is the result. much talk about most politicians when they faced a vote of no confidence, they want to try and win it. but it seems that jumps the shots actually wanted to lose this vote in order to have of the elections bracht. and i think that's the recognition of how this functional the coalition has been. frankly, at all really begun to fall upon about a year ago when jeremy's fires, quote, the constitutional quote determined. by the way the government had been financing itself was effectively illegal. it was unconstitutional and not created a major problem within the government. because you have 3 partners in this coalition, they're all very ideologically difference in money was the one way in which they were able to paper. oh, but the idea all the g absence,

the ability to use the money. i think a lot of the idea of what your products began to surface and shots, i think arrived at the conclusion that there was no way to govern when this coalition going forward. hence, his decision to hold a vote of no confidence today and much stop at the, the, the money you're talking about was money that was originally set aside for the cobit pandemic. is that right? is correct, and it has been the basis upon which the government has been financing the loss of its objectives. now the money is no longer available. you really see the government struggling, they struggle to pass a budget for this year. they are unable to pass a budget for next year. and i think that really was the trigger for shots to say this time to revisit the way well organized and called into the election to see whether or not can on black parliament and deliver different results to them. i'm in modern politics. it's not just about policies, it's about personality to how is chancellor shot see not just as in germany,

but on the european stage because i've heard, well, it's like dole and technocratic and lasting christmas. one challenge your own off shore as well. of course, who is coming in after anglo americans who, whatever we think of her legacy was undoubtedly the defacto leader of europe here for many years. she was the person in the room driving decision making and taking the lead in terms of the policy. so all of that shows comp came in after her back in 2020 will. and when that coalition government was put together and you're right, he hasn't, he has never made the same kind of impact as angler, merck and number one that's to do with a who's just explained there. the kind of inherent weakness of that coalition government where you have the traffic lights, it was called coalition with 3 parties, with depth, very different ideas. so in one sense, he would always go over it in one hand, behind his back. and what secondary, yes, is personalities. very different. you know, when he speaks journeys,

he's quite low key and you know, he doesn't put his head above the power, but that's the kind of person is he came from a very much more of a finance background. and i, i feel that, you know, once that war and ukraine happened, the full scale invasion. and, you know, you're a patrol in the spotlight, so was sure it's, and i just don't think you have that kind of instinct to take a lead there on that issue. politically, so i think it's true, he didn't big, huge impacts here. but am germany mattress is by far the biggest country in the you and the biggest economy in the u. s. so people here are looking very closely at what's going to happen as we enter this era of political instability for the next few months ahead of the elections in february. oh rick, it's worth reminding, i think people watching this though, this is not the demise of schultz right now. he stays on in the cat taker capacity for now, but does he really have the power to do anything before elections? no, they just operate as ones is formerly known as

a lame dock. there is no reform package that will have any chance to get support from everyone in the upon demand, which is already in an election campaign mode. so germany is basically put on hold until we have elections and then again it will take time until the new coalition will reformed. stop. uh we had this was called the traffic light coalition. and it consisted of the greetings and the social democrats to about sort of left will send to laughter, politics, and then the free democrats who are much more free market in terms of that policy is, was this a bad fit to begin with? was this always going to happen? well, these 3 never going to really be able to work together in the long term. i mean, i think the idea of logical differences are clearly quite cute and we've seen those differences increase in particular is preston leading to the finance minister in

his free democratic party full. it's around 5 or below 5 percent and the national photos, that's a major problem to him is access control. because if he and his party do not achieve about 5 percent, they will not be able to enter parliament in the context of the next elections. and not i think concern really drove the ftp into a much more hotline position on a lot of the fiscal questions. the financing questions about the country is struggling with, you know, in my own and you, my own sense is germany never really had a finance minister in pristine linda. they had a policy manager. he was to policy political. he wasn't really thinking about the national interest. and so i think that's the major reason why the coalition could not work. of course, that with differences also with the degree is also between the social democrats and the greens and the, the liberal democrats. but i think the major problem on the coalition was christine lynn. the ftp and that polling at the national level, just on what we think

a trend here. do you think in terms of the western nations? because it seems, if you are an incumbent who came out to the curb it years when there was that very high inflation, you look at the machine's, so not in the u. k, you look at cumberland versus the successor to joe biden. you look at macros, potty being punished in elections and now look to canada and just intrude out. is there a trend here? you think of it is a 2024 was being built as a year of elections and it certainly has been on your rise. the vast majority of governments are being thrown at was by their populations by their voters. i have say there's one exception. my own home country of ireland just had an election and more or less the incumbent governments has been reelected. but what are the reasons there, for example, may be because the irish economy is doing very well. and this is getting to the heart of the issue i saw on the united states. you know, people are concerned about the economy, about cost of living issues of you mentioned their inflation shipping year,

but been so high in that year or so after the full scale invasion of ukraine, the governments have been struggling to respond to the us. and so that's what we've seen across the board. and i think the lead worry now for europe is that germany, i'm from the, the engine of the you, the engine of the arizona economy. they're both in trouble. this am collapse of government and birthday and it's happening hot on the heels of political chaos and friends for present macklin cold of elections during the summer and now is on the as another new prime minister. so things are very unstable in paris. the very unstable in berlin, and this is all at a time when there's big political change, particularly the us. and everyone is waiting to see what the impacts would be of donald trump presidency when he is an old raise it early next year. we look at those white a trends, but in many ways, germany is in a worse position than some of those other countries. the war and ukraine created an energy crisis and you look at the economy right now. germany is the worst performer

of all the countries in the g 7 group of nations. but i have a slightly different understanding of what's currently going on. i wouldn't highlight the major differences of the former coordination partners, which of course can be easily attempted 5 by the different personalities. but when we look at what the different parties stand for, they are strongly committed to trends of county relations. they have a strong support, this is your opinion integration. they are strong supporters of concern for marketing economy. so there is so much in common that allows us to foreign coalition. 7 percent of the political spectrum in would have a variation of the different colors. this is fundamentally different from the edge of the political spectrum and we now have to punch in. ready challengers on the left and on the right, they stand for something fundamentally different. and so the most likely outcome is a variation of the same maybe was different people,

but the general commitments to support to crane and to take a leadership role in the european union. this will remain the same, but as you rightly say, the challenges are big at this time. but it happened after 16 years of economies grow. we never had a longer phase of economies growth with the same government and having for 16 years the same chancellor also means that a lot of things that we're not on the right off the america government has not been addressed. and now we would say 6 months, expenses that are lost, the investment needs or assembly to be addressed. and that makes people feel easy because the consequences of the reform will show later. but in the short run, people think that this is the end of germany as we know it. and the natural order of things is at risk to stop a week to talk to that or about the fall right in the fall, ask,

do you have on the far right, the alternative for germany potty, which is seen as beyond the pale by the rest of the political system, no one wants to do deals with them. um, tell me how you see them fitting into the things at the moment, particularly is i think that in current polls polling 2nd, it's all very well. so people saying they don't want to deal with them, but do not those that might vote for them to have to have the views respected in some way. like fundamentally what we're probably looking up on the 23rd 24th of february. as all right, southern i agree with him is a, is an incoming coalition. government not will be formed if to staple policies in the sense, uh, probably the pristine democrats in the system policy, the christine social union, probably in a coalition with the social democrats. so that's center right. incentive left. maybe the greens will participate and not coalition. if the polling shows thoughts

necessary, i don't see any way for the at the 2 ends of power, the federal level, i just think there is absolutely no possibility of thoughts. i think you are correct, james, and not we probably will see policy in particular on things like immigration move a little bit, some of the right to accommodates and appease some of the positions about the at the is taking in the voters. but i think fundamentally what with a much after the elections is a, is a coalition center on the sensor items, the sensor last and not will run a pro european pro. you frame a policy. nice thing will probably be more constructive and most stable than the outgoing governments of our shots. all right, let me focus a little bit more on immigration with you by some counts that may be close to 1000000 syrian nationals living in germany. already there are calls from some little makers to return them home. what do you think will be that situation with

regard to those syrians given the very fast moving events we've seen in, in the last few days in syria? well, when it comes to immigration, we have a very interesting situation in this country. the elections in february, we'll see 40 percent of the electron rating. being as old as i am, or all of that. which means that space is mostly pension. ours will decide what the future government looked like. and if you have such a demographic, a challenge to a desperately in need of finding young bride educated people coming to your country to fill the shortages in the labor market. and at the same time, a country of 84000000 can easily as rich as germany is, affords to live up to it, to many terry and sell finding commitments. which is why we do not only half a 1000000 of syrians in the country, but also the largest percentage of refugees from ukraine,

which is not the end of the german culture. was an implosion also associated economic system. but you can easily instrumental lies this and creates a wave of your as a popular parties that you can ride on to win at least some more percentages than in the previous elections. so on the one hand, there is a growing anti immigration sentiment in the german society. and on the other hand, everyone is beating the ground for being an open society and an open economy. to maintain that you cannot make success story. suzanne, as we just heard ukraine, we're approaching the 3rd anniversary of russia's loud invasion february, the 24th will be that a anniversary. what do you think this means for your policy towards ukraine and do you think presidency lensky will be pretty worried? yeah, it does. is huge, it's significant for you. great. and what happens next?

at germany? germany, even though it does still get a lot of criticism about it, stands on, on ukraine has really increased its defense spending and is, you know, one of the biggest funders or provider mets we have now to ukraine. now the big question would be with merits, if he is elected the new chancellor leader of the opposition. now, will he signify a change in policy? and now we have his party and he, himself, i've taken a very strong stands when it comes to support for ukraine. he visited ukraine in the last couple of weeks and met with the landscaping kia, for example. i'm the one of the issues that's a big source of database. and jeremy is whether jeremy was send these towers messiahs to at ukraine. shots have refrained from doing that and has been criticized merits as indications you would do that. however, the reality is that by the time the new government has in place, donald trump with them being phase, and i think you cream would be part of a much bigger conversation involved with united states as

a possible piece to you. and you know, the future security architecture, so germany will be just one part of that check. so when that happens in the spring and put in dallas agree, yes, it will have an impact. i think the lensky will be please out of the opposition party. the cd you to main opposition party looks like it when this election come right on top with coalition partners already next year. apple or in for big period of change when it comes to ukraine policy regardless at early next year. we're stop with them to, to follow up on that. if trump, as we suspect, is going to try and push ukraine to a piece stale and possibly caught results is going to ukraine. do you think your up on its own is prepared? is ready to pick up, pick up the heavy lifting and the supplies of weapons and money to ukraine. so i think there are certain things the are people trying to do in likes of. well, donald trump will probably thing to do,

which is under warrant 24 hours. that's had stated commitment. i think in the 1st instance, what your means of trying to do is put a package together an offer to donald trump, to try and convince him to take some of your pains concerns of ukraine into considerations that you put a lot more money on the table and a lot of that money is for us, weapons and alms manufacturers. effectively a fiscal transfer to donald trump, to america, to key constituencies full donald trump. but that will enable him, perhaps facilitate push him to take some of these considerations, but your opinions have on you brain into question. and one of those concerns and those considerations, well, don't sell out your brain. don't implemented by deals that will result in russia coming back in 5 years time or 4 years. time will 3 years time and attempting to take more tara tree, make sure about the credible security guarantees in place that would like to the, the tire in stock would prevent vladimir putin,

the russian president. from doing that in the future. have a credible pathway for nato membership over the medium to long to make sure there is buying the from donald trump to support you brains. european a session of coal, just put a lot more money on the table. so if you frame can continue to fund itself to pay its pension, is a civil servants, it's military, given that the country has no market access, nobody is really buying ukrainian funds anymore. and so the only way the government can finance itself is through extend no credits as possible. i think your things are going to do in the 1st instance, put a package together, put a lot more money on the table. so that was a piece. trump hope that will enable and facilitate him taking some of these concerns and considerations about the eu has um, into the negotiations when he begins to talk to a lot of may of fruits and early in the new year. oh rick, do you favor not just on you crying, but on only you policy,

as of the ones has on said, there was a problem here that the 2 major power houses of europe upfront and germany and both civil tenuously facing this political term. while i don't think there's an over estimation of the role of germany and france when we look at what other drivers from your work and integration in the early days of that you are being community. this was definitely an important factor because it was also about reconciliation between the terminal enemies in the past. but the same is farther and larchmont and it's no longer something one can take for granted. that if germany on the one and, and from some of the other end of the spectrum of how to manage your pin money, terry policy or whatever the conflicting lines have been that everyone else in the political spectrum will cluster between the 2 opposing sides. they circulate doesn't apply to the central and eastern european countries. so we haven't seen

much since 2004, which is the result of a german french engine. and rather the officer dongle, america, the as or trade being the lead off europe. sale was basically everything she did as a unilateral actor. so she's definitely remembered as an important crisis manager. but as someone with a vision that matches all the visionary ideas of him on the way to my call, this is certainly not something she stands for. suzanne, i mean, it was lots of, of guesswork we can do here, but we were already mentioned the idea that it could be the c d u m s p d. in some sort of coalition, whoever comes out on top. so it could be trump slip schultz, it could be transferred feed trick, mess to tell me a little bit about him. paint a very quick pen pen portrait of him for us. well, i mean as the leader of the opposition, um somebody with a finance background i picked a lot of people here in brussels,

are quite confident that if he is elected, the things will start moving in germany on like from square to really is police ago stagnancy now one micron is going to be lamed to present for quite a while. there is a sense of impending relief, fear that at least if the more of a decisive election results in berlin. and you have a chancellor friedrich merge with more of a mondays. and i kind of a stronger political authority at home that he would be able to drive through more forms and be bold or maybe in his economic vision at one of the big debates. for example, if the debt break that kind of the route that's in place and berlin, that kind of limits german borrowing. this has long been criticism and brussels because germany, for example, yes or the use of the much bigger than used to be booked. germany is by far the biggest country and by far the biggest economy. so economic pay as well as ukraine . economically, what happens in germany have huge consequences for the rest of europe. so i think they're going to look to someone who's got leadership skills in that finance space

. and that's going to be able to bring germany. i was of his post co would slope effectively as being, you know, a lack of growth in germany at since the corporate pandemic. that's what people wants here that wants germany to improve economically. and that, that will have overall european compasses of nets because that's a big challenge there for europe, particularly compared to the us and china, it's finding themselves in between ad growth is very, very low. and germany is the key to try and bring back broke level up and give your up to boost that it needs sign cases on. thank you to all of all guess. today's is on lynch, which top of rahman, on over at brooklyn. remember we're here every day. of the year you can watch this program on television on app, on your phone, or on a website at which is there a dot com. we want to hear your comments to go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha, inside story will post your thoughts on x. find us at 8 inside story for me,

james space and the rest of the team. i'll see you soon. bye bye for now the the latest news as it breaks. the law says, what was the police of power of president for charge? a said his rule is now over with details coverage. how much time do you say party one to process the winning tree, inspect for additionally wordpress, it does say you pull the and the beach from around the world. first, the valley avenue is filled with tens of thousands of processes in the 7th consecutive nights of process in the georgia and capital around one percent. authentic tricity globally is consumed by data centers, many of which provide for moot storage facilities, or what is also known as the cloud. i'm in no way to see how one center is harnessing the energy of these fuel. what's to store our digital information

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my friends risk and you know, the american dream on out to 0. the colleges when the, the northern guns that under attack, several people are killed as is where the force is continues to target the heavier, around one of the strips. p remaining medical facilities. the on the bulk of this is just a lot from to how. so coming up, united nations looks to send a team to syria,

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