separate from his family and homeland and denied the right to work, the bottles for acceptance and a foreign land tied with dakota forms, i believe. so know how to explain to situations when you're going to fly from because to the arctic witness jersey to germany face has an early election before the collapse of johnson schultz has coalition government. your, the gets economy is in trouble with the political divisions. so what, how the issues and why is the outcome so important? international decision sonic store, the hello again, non change space. it was no surprise when german johnson, the old off, schultz lost the confidence. motion impala meant that he'd cooled himself. he's on easy coalition. government did already full on the part

a little over 3 is off to taking office. that was also just before rushes invasion of ukraine, a war that hit germany hod, ending the supply of cheap russian gas that fueled europe's economic and industrial powerhouse. the far right on the far left, both opposed, supporting ukraine just as that united against more immigration choppy waters on trade to with china. for example, while donald trump's presidency approaches on the horizon with threats of terrace. so what all the big issues in the election and why is the outcomes significant? far beyond germany's borders, we'll talk to a public guess in the moment. but 1st, this report from how does a mohammed vote of confidence called by chance it up on i've shoals know what the government would lose following the collapse with these 3 particularly shown government in november shows calculated the ticket open at the elections would be his best hopes of restoring support for his body can be afforded in bergen and gordon. i'm stunned. we owe our citizens decency and seriousness as

i've already said. but the reason for my decision to end the coalition government was something else. it was caused by an even more important question. they made a question of whether on how we invested in our country, powerful and determined, or small minded respondents, germany a 0 to biggest economy. we did in decline. it's decisions on the way forward, or rather a lot of them said back controls leadership, the government's independence on cheap rushing goals to freely germany's fortune, to what degree by the west, in positions of assumptions on russia for the invasion of ukraine. that to get an image crises, watson, by the facing of nuclear energy, by the adding to a cost of living prices. uncertainty to about what, what's the use of being union with donald trump threatening types able to use it a ton of us present in january. germany is also exposed in differences between the you and china, over trade us studies on chinese, electric vehicle,

inputs and possible reprisals. germany studies automotive sick. the past extensive business in china. the position brings the government for the growing problems. once you're leaving the country and one of its biggest economic crises in postwar history, they're very being 2 occasions when germany has paid in recession for 2 years. in a row, one was hard. schroeder, who at least introduced agend to 2010. the 2nd was o life sholtes, and you'll standing here in saying business as usual. big issues in the election also include the countries simple for you create in its war against russia. opinion full of so increasing concern among voters about the risk of why the conflict with far act on file if parties both a post father helping ukraine. another big issue is regression. germany as picking a most eating refugee than any other european country doing serious even more a photo. it has now hosted a sign up applications from cdns,

following the collapse of the bush on a side street gym. defraud i a d design. i think it wants to store all my guns from input in germany and those already the to return on on the fund lift the side of big connect, elijah, and see the country can cope with any more arrivals or the elections. in february, we focused on how germany we've been around going forward. the joyce of people who have impact will be on its board in terms of him and he did 0 for insight study. so now let's get the inside story from, i guess today in berlin, we have over at brooklyn, a professor of european studies at stanford university in berlin and brussels. suzanne lynch is the chief of brussels, corresponded to politico and host of the you confidential part costs and in colombo, which top of rahman is managing director for europe at the razor group and leads

the firm's analysis on europe. let me start with you. oh rick, i'm at this vote of no confidence, no surprise. we knew this was going to happen, but it's still something that's very rare. i believe only happened 3 times in the building history of germany, but they've had to have a little early elections like this. really decent to move in the political 20 bucks . and if it's necessary, it's used. but germany has a very, a continuity oriented political system. we are not divided society and to women elections and the same to designate a number off parties cluster and the same tax. so if you basically agree on most things, then there is no need to call snap elections or to question the functioning of the government. this time the tensions within the coordination of or too big. and this is the result as much top up most politicians when they faced a vote of no confidence, they want to try and win it. but it seems that jumps of the shots actually wanted

to lose this vote in order to have of the elections. correct. and i think that's the recognition of how dysfunctional the coalition has been. frankly, at all really begun to fall upon about a year ago when jeremy's highest, quote, the constitutional quote determined that the way the government had been financing itself was effectively illegal. it was unconstitutional. and not traits of the major problem within the government. because you have 3 partners in this coalition, they're all very ideologically different. and money was the one way in which they were able to paper over by deal logy absence. the ability to use the money. i think a lot of the idea of what your products began to surface and shots. i think arrived at the conclusion that there was no way to govern when this coalition going forward . hence his decision to call the votes of no confidence today. and most of the money you're talking about was money that was originally set aside for the cobit

pandemic. is that right? is correct, and it has been the basis upon which the government has been financing the loss of its objectives. now the money is no longer available, you really see the government struggling, they struggle to pass a budget for this year. they are unable to pass a budget for next year. and i think that really was the trigger for shots to say this time to revisit the way well organized and called into the election to see whether or not can on black parliament and deliver different results. says um i'm in modern politics. it's not just about policies, it's about personality to. how is john slingshot seen? not just as in germany, but on the european stage because i've heard, well, it's like dole and technocratic and lasting christmas. one challenge your own off shore as well, of course, who is coming in after anglo americans who, whatever we think of her legacy was undoubtedly the defacto leader of europe here

for many years. she was the person in the room, driving decision making and taking the lead in terms of the policy. so all of that shows comp came in after her back in 2020 will. and when that coalition government was put together on your right, he hasn't, he has never made the same kind of impact as angler, merck and number one that's to do with a who's just explained there. the kind of inherent weakness of that coalition government where you have the traffic lights, it was called coalition with 3 parties with depth, very different ideas. so in one sense, he was always covered in one hand, behind his back. and what secondary, yes, is personalities. very different, you know, when he speaks journeys, he's quite low key and you know, he doesn't put his head above the power, but that's the kind of person is he came from a very much more of a finance background. and i, i feel that, you know, once that war and ukraine happened, the full scale invasion. and, you know, you're a patrol in the spotlight, so was sure it's, and i just don't think you have that kind of instinct to take

a lead there on that issue. politically, so i think it's true, he didn't big, huge impacts here. but am germany mattress is by far the biggest country in the you and the biggest economy in the u. s. so people here are looking very closely at what's going to happen as we enter this era of political instability for the next few months ahead of the elections in february. oh rick, it's worth reminding, i think people watching this though, this is not the demise of schultz right now. he stays on in the cat taker capacity for now, but does he really have the power to do anything before elections? no, they just operate as ones is going to be known as a lame duck. there is no reform package that will have any chance to get support from everyone in the upon demand, which is already in an election campaign mode. so germany is basically put on hold until we have elections and then again it will take time until the new correlation

will reformed. stop. uh we had this was called the traffic light coalition. and it consisted of the greetings and the social democrats to about sort of left to send to laughter, politics, and then the free democrats who are much more free market in terms of that policy is, was this a bad fit to begin with? was this always going to happen? well, these 3 never going to really be able to work together in the long term. i mean, i think the idea of logical differences are clearly quite cute and we've seen those differences increase in particular is preston leading to the finance minister in his free democratic party full. it's around 5 or below 5 percent and the national photos, that's a major problem to him is access control. because if he and his party do not achieve about 5 percent, they will not be able to enter parliament in the context of the next elections. and

not i think concern really drove the ftp into a much more hotline position on a lot of the fiscal questions. the financing questions about the country is struggling with, you know, in my own view, my own sense is germany never really how to finance minister in pristine linda, the out of policy manager. he was to policy political. he wasn't really thinking about the national interest. and so i think that's the major reason why the coalition could not work. of course, that with differences also with the degree is also between the social democrats and the greens and the, the liberal democrats. but i think the major problem on the coalition was christine lynn. the ftp and that polling at the national level does not always think a trend here. do you think in terms of western nations? because it seems, if you are an incumbent who came out to the co, good years when that was that very high inflation, you looked at to richie, so not in the u. k, you look a couple of houses, the successor to joe biden. you look at macros,

potty being punished in elections and now look to canada and just intruder. is there a trend to you? thank it is a 2024 was being built as a year of elections and it certainly has been on your rise. the vast majority of governments are being thrown items by their populations by their voters. i have say there's one exception. my own home country of ireland just had an election and more or less, the incumbent governments has been reelected. but what are the reasons there, for example, may be because the irish economy is doing very well. and this is getting to the heart of the issue i saw on the united states. you know, people are concerned about the economy, about cost of living issues of you mentioned their inflation shipping year, but been so high in that year or so after the full scale invasion of ukraine, the governments have been struggling to respond to the us. and so that's what we've seen across the board. and i think the lead worry now for europe is that germany, i'm from the, the engine of the you, the engine of the arizona economy. they're both in trouble. this am collapse of

government and birthday and it's happening hot on the heels of political chaos and friends for present macklin cold of elections during the summer and now is on the as another new prime minister. so things are very unstable in paris. the very unstable in berlin, and this is all at a time when there's big political change, particularly us. and everyone is waiting to see what the impacts would be of donald trump presidency when he is an old raise it early next year. we look at those white a trends, but in many ways, germany is in a worse position than some of those other countries. the will and ukraine created an energy crisis and you look at the economy right now. germany is the worst performer of all the countries in the g 7 group of nations. but i have a slightly different understanding of what's currently going on. i wouldn't highlight the major differences of the former coordination partners, which of course can be easily identify fairly different personalities. but when we

look at what the different parties stand for, they are strongly committed to terms of county relations. they have a strong support. this is your opinion integration. they are strong supporters of the social marketing economy. so there is so much in common that allows us to foreign coalition. 7 percent of the political spectrum in would have a variation of the different colors. this is fundamentally different from the edge of the political spectrum and we now have 2 popular. ready challenges on the left and on the right, they stand for something fundamentally different. and so the most likely outcome is a variation of the same maybe was different people, but the general commitments to support to crane and to take a leadership role in the european union. this will remain the same, but as you rightly say, the challenge says are big at this time, but it happened after 16 years of economies grow. we never had

a longer phase of economies growth with the same government and having for 16 years the same chancellor also means that a lot of things that we're not on the right off the america government has not been addressed. and now we just say 6 months, expenses that are lost, the investment needs or assembly to be addressed and that makes people feel i'm easy because the consequences of the reform will show later. but in the short run, people think that this is the end of germany. as we know we've done the natural order of things is at risk to wish top a week to talk to that over about the fall right in the fall, ask, do you have on the far right the alternative for germany potty, which is seen as beyond the pale by the rest of the political system, no one wants to do deals with them. um, tell me how you see them fitting into the things at the moment, particularly is i think that in current polls polling 2nd,

it's all very well. so people saying they don't want to deal with them, but do not those that might vote for them to have to have the views respected in some way. like fundamentally what we're probably looking up on the 23rd 24th of february. as all rick sudden i agree with him is a, is an incoming coalition. government not will be formed if to staple policies in the sense, uh, probably the pristine democrats in the system policy, the christine social union, probably in a coalition with the social democrats. so that's center right incentive left. maybe the greens will participate and not coalition. if the polling shows thoughts necessary, i don't see any way for the at the 2 ends of power, the federal level, i just think there is absolutely no possibility of thoughts. i think you are correct, james, and not we probably will see policy in particular on things like immigration move a little bit, some of the right to accommodates and appease some of the positions about the at

the is taking in the voters. but i think fundamentally what with a much after the elections is a, is a coalition center on the sensor items, the sensor last and not will run a pro european pro. you frame a policy. nice thing will probably be more constructive and most stable then the outgoing governments of our shots. oh really let me focus a little bit more on immigration with you by some counts that may be close to 1000000 syrian nationals living in germany. already there are calls from some little makers to return them home. what do you think will be that situation with regard to those syrians given the very fast moving events we've seen in, in the last few days in syria? well, when it comes to immigration, we have a very interesting situation in this country. the elections in february, and we'll see 40 percent of the electron rating being as old as i am,

or all of that. which means that space is mostly pension. ours will decide what the future government but look like. and if you have such a demographic, a challenge to a desperately in need of finding young bride educated people coming to your country to fill the shortages in the labor market. and at the same time, a country of 84000000 can easily as rich as germany is, affords to live up to it, to many terry and sell finding commitments. which is why we do not only half a 1000000 of syrians in the country, but also the largest percentage of refugees from ukraine, which is not the end of the german culture. was an implosion also associated economic system. but you can easily instrumental lies this and creates a wave of your as a popular parties that you can ride on to win at least some more percentages

than in the previous elections. so on the one hand, there is a growing anti immigration sentiment in the german society. and on the other hand, everyone is beating the ground for being an open society and an open economy. to maintain that you cannot make success story. suzanne, as we just heard ukraine, we're approaching the 3rd anniversary of russia's loud invasion february, the 24th will be that a anniversary. what do you think this means for your policy towards ukraine and do you think presidency lensky will be pretty worried? yeah, and this is huge, it's significant for you. great. and what happens next? at germany? germany, even though it does still get a lot of criticism about it stands on, on ukraine has really increased its defense spending. and is, you know, one of the biggest funders or provider mets we have now to ukraine. now the big question would be with merits, if he is elected the new chancellor,

the leader of the opposition. now, will he signify a change in policy? and now we have his party and he, himself, i've taken a very strong stands when it comes to support for ukraine. he visited ukraine in the last couple of weeks and met with the landscaping kia, for example. i'm the one of the issues that's a big source of database. and jeremy is whether jeremy was and these towers midsize to at ukraine. shots have refrained from doing that and has been criticized merits as indications you would do this. however, the reality is that by the time the new government has in place, donald trump with them being phase, and i think you cream would be part of a much bigger conversation involved with united states as a possible piece to you. and you know, the future security architecture, so germany will be just one part of that check. so when that happens in the spring and put in dallas agree, yes, it will have an impact. and i think the lensky will be please out of the opposition party. the cd you to main opposition party looks like it when this election come

right on top with coalition partners already next year. apple or in for big period of change when it comes to ukraine policy regardless at early next year. we're stop with them to, to follow up on that. if trump, as we suspect is going to try and push you trained to a piece stale and possibly caught results is going to ukraine. do you think your up on its own is prepared? is ready to pick up, pick up the heavy lifting and the supplies of weapons and money to ukraine. so i think there are certain things the are people trying to do in likes of what donald trump will probably thing to do, which is under war and 24 hours. thoughts has stated commitment. i think in the 1st instance, what your needs are trying to do is put a package together an offer to donald trump, to try and convince him to take some of your pains concerns of ukraine into considerations that you put a lot more money on the table and a lot of that money is for us, weapons and ons manufacturer is effectively

a fiscal transfer to donald trump to america, to key constituencies full. donald trump thought that will enable him perhaps facilitate push him to take some of these considerations, but your opinions have on you brain into question. and one of those concerns and those considerations, well, don't sell out your brain. don't implemented by deals that will result in russia coming back in 5 years time or 4 years time will 3 years time and attempting to take more territory. make sure about the credible security guarantees in place that will act as a the tire in stock will prevent vladimir putin, the russian president from doing that in the future. have a credible pathway for nato membership of the medium to long to make sure there is buying the from donald trump to support you brains. european a session of coal, just put a lot more money on the table. so if you frame can continue to fund itself to pay

its pension, is a civil servants, it's military, given that the country has no market access, nobody is really buying ukrainian funds anymore. and so the only way the government can finance itself is through extend no credits as far as what i think your pains are going to do. in the 1st instance, put a package together, put a lot more money on the table. so that was a piece. trump hope that will enable and facilitate him taking some of these concerns and considerations about the eu has um, into the negotiations when he begins to talk to a lot of may of fruits and early in the new year. oh rick, do you favor? not just on you crying, but on only you policy as of the wrong suzanne said, there was a problem here that the 2 major power houses of europe upfront and germany and both civil tenuously facing this political tomo. when i think that as an over estimation of the role of germany and france when we look at what other drivers from your work

and integration in the early days of that you are being community. this was definitely an important factor because it was also about reconciliation between the terminal enemies in the past. but since east part in large land, it's no longer something one can take for granted. that if germany on the one and, and from some of the other end of the spectrum of how to manage your pin money, terry policy or whatever the conflicting lines have been that everyone else in the political spectrum will cluster between the 2 opposing sides historically doesn't apply to the central and eastern european countries. so we haven't seen much since 2004, which is the result of a german french engine. and rather the officer dongle, america, the as or trade being the lead off europe. sale was basically everything she did as a unilateral actor. so she's definitely remembered as an important crisis manager.

but as someone with a vision that matches all the visionary ideas of him on the way to my call, this is certainly not something she stands for. suzanne, i mean, it was lots of, of guesswork we can do here, but we were already mentioned the idea that it could be the c d u m s p d. in some sort of coalition, whoever comes out on top. so it could be trump slip schultz, it could be transfer fee trick mess to tell me a little bit about him. paint a very quick pen pen portrait of him for us. well, i mean as the leader of the opposition, um somebody with a finance background, i picked a lot of people here in brussels, are quite confident stuff. if he is elected, the things will start moving in germany on like from square to really is police ago stagnancy. now, one micron is going to be lamed to present for quite a while. there is a sense of impending relief, fear that at least if it's more of a decisive election results in berlin. and you have a chancellor friedrich merge with more of a mondays. and i kind of

a stronger police ago at poverty at home that he would be able to drive through and more forms on the boat or maybe in his economic vision at one of the big debates. for example, if the debt break that kind of the route that's in place and burden kind of limits german borrowing, this has long been criticism and growth of those. because germany, for example, yes or the use of the much bigger than used to be book germany is by far the biggest country and by far the biggest economy. so economic pay as well as ukraine . economically, what happens in germany have huge consequences for the rest of europe. so i think they're going to look to someone who's got leadership skills in that finance space . and that's going to be able to bring germany. i was of his post co would slope effectively as being, you know, a lack of growth in germany at since the corporate pandemic. that's what people wants here that wants germany to improve economically. and that, that will have overall european compasses of nets because that's

a big challenge start for europe, particularly compared to the us and china, it's finding themselves in between ad growth is very, very low. and germany is the key to try and bring back broke level up and give your up to boost that it needs sign cases on. thank you to all of all guess. today's is on lynch, which top of rahman, on over at brooklyn. remember we're here every day. of the year you can watch this program on television on app, on your phone, or on a website at which is there a dot com. we want to hear your comments to go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story will post your thoughts on x. find us at 8 inside story for me, james space and the rest of the team. i'll see you soon. bye bye. for now the pod came in to be used. could be interm had for 4 years, which is pretty much an electrical terms. now,

i didn't say that that would be for 40 years facing realities. what does donald trump's re election mean pretty tough. it is most important that we focus on how to work with president trump thought provoking on stuff. and your wife is dealing with the climate crisis is a crisis of crisis good times. but so it's not just one price isn't via the store on talk to how does era the journey to what can be a challenge on it. but for some peruvian villages, traversing one of the world's most dangerous way is a risk that comes with the job. we follow the journey of these people as they get them to survive. risking is all on algebra. the. the challenges

with record numbers of chinese asylum seekers are traveling to the us. that's double many take a dangerous route through loss in america. a gang of people points that have done that in the 1st of a 2 part investigation. 101 east meets the chinese, my friends risk and you know, the american dream on out to 0. the limits to how far a dream can take to study in your own adventure now counter and ways

the . ready you what you will just bear with me. so robin, in the heart of mind to of all the top new stories is riley's keeping up its attacks on the gauze of strength with the come all odd one hospital targeted once again by is riley false is a residential building nearby was also hit the hospital direct us as dozens were in good, as well as the latest attacks target covers. and how's the latest data by in central gaza? 2 now at the medical records austin inside the hospital, they reiterated the urgency for an immediate protection for the medical tubes inside.