the the . ringback the although i'm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on al jazeera. you know, we can look at the world of business and he cannot make this rich geo political tensions. climate change of technology plate will impact the way we move goods and services across borders. but could they complete the transform local trade as we

currently know it? countries around the world of bracing for donald trump's tracking trips, so which nations a set to lose or when? if the measures are imposed and put a spark of global trade. the resilience of supply change has been tested like never before. businesses, nations facing challenges, as well as new opportunities to technology, play a role in restructuring logistics. the cobit maintain pandemic is laid by the vulnerabilities of global supply chains more than ever before. trade routes are being disrupted by geopolitical tensions, climate change, and technological advancements that's forcing governments and companies to rethink how goods and services flow across the board has nations across the world, a re evaluating everything from supply chain dependencies to trade pump is based on economic a national security concerns. as a result, protectionism is on the rise regional trade blocks or emerging production

facilities are being moved closer to home. digital and sustainable solutions are increasingly being adopted. the shift is re shaping the world's trading system. but what's it gonna look like in the future? we'll discuss all of that with our guests shortly. but 1st, victoria k to be reports global supply chains are in a state of flux driven in part by recent challenges, including the k with 19 pandemic, and to shift in geo politics due to us china trade tensions flooring, ukraine and conflict in them. at least we are in a period of the globalization or some people call it g o economy fragmentation, where we are seeing a realignment of trade relationships, particularly if you want to, you know, you have a, a group that's led by the us, a group led by china and then you have no 9 countries, the impact of climate change and increased automation and digitalization. it will

say driving companies to change how they operate. firms is shifting production closer to where they sell that goods and to using a wide range of suppliers from around the world, minimizing any potential disruption to their supply chains and reducing that carbon footprint in china is still the world's factory responsible for almost as the global manufacturing output, but that's changing. and all the asian countries as well as mexico are reaping the benefits. recently tech joined, apple announced it's moving some small same production from china to india in viet nam us to we may come a tell is expanding operations in mexico and chinese manufacturer, high sense plans to make appliances for the us market in mexico rather than china. developing nations have a look to gain from changing trading relationships. they are able to go straight to digital without having to deal with legacy systems. so if you look at the huge

innovations taking place across africa, the middle ladies with regards to this guy, they should use mobile and international trade in trust both to try and you said that that she was potential with the election of donald trump, the world's 2 biggest economies, the us in china orona, collision course. trump has promised to impose high tires. don't chinese import. once he's back in the white house, threatening to destabilize markets across asia. it could perhaps also open new ones, but economists want high tire of could backfire globally. victoria gates and b l g 0. so counting the cost global economic ties are changing and ways not seen since the end of the cold war trade between countries. but whole similar political views is growing more quickly than between countries with different views. according to the world trade organization i'm, there's been a spike in tariffs and trade barriers. such restrictions have more than tripled in the last 5 years. direct trade between russia and the west collapsed following the

russian invasion of ukraine. china's exports to the us dropped by 8 percent between 20172023, following a flare up in trade tensions of a tie, one chinese support for russia over ukraine. in the same period, us exports to china decreased by around 4 percent. the i m f says the trade and investment of being rerouted through so called connect to countries like mexico, vietnam and the easy of poland, morocco helping to cushion the economic impact of direct trade. the coupling between the us and china, the return of donald trump, to the white house and the rest of hyatt, char, if the costs could impact all of that. well, the global trade system is highly vulnerable to disruption of the number of key points around the globe. 90 percent of trade goods are transported by see much of it passes through a few key sharp points. don't sit around the globe. disruption to any of them.

could have costly consequences for the global economy. the strait of homo is, sees about a 5th of the world oil and gas supply has passed through it every year. geopolitical tensions between their bond on one side of israel and the united states on the other side of race concerns over the security of the strait. it really enforces aborted and detained. a number of tank is that in recent years, one of the 5th of maritime trade passes through the taiwan strait and taiwan producers, 90 percent of the world's most advanced computer chips. china regards to the island that was a break away proof in some hasn't rolled out using force to retake it. such a move would have a major impact on global trade. climate change is also a concern around $500000000000.00 of goods passed through the panama come now every year. it's a key link between the atlantic and pacific oceans, but unprecedented drops of lowered water levels in the canal, forcing authorities to restrict traffic by as much as 50 percent. so let's

bring in a guess for our discussion of the program from brussels, we're joined by a hostile lea. lucky alma, a leading offer on trade diplomacy. you find east relations and the digital economy and the director of the european center, the international political economy from geneva withdrawn by kimberly both right. pit of sustainable traded the will, the comic for him and from hong kong, which went by alejandro reyes nonresident city. a fellow at the center on contemporary china and the world university of hong kong scholar and residence asia society, hong kong center. what's that, let's stop with you. what do you see as the biggest threats to global subtract supply chains right now out of the list. but that's a huge list that, that i gave you just a few moments ago. well, the nature of blackstone evans is that you can never really predict them your account about to rank them. but i think it's fair to say that we are living in

extraordinary times, or you could even say the impact to ordinary times. because the last, as he is we have is actually on there of extreme privilege we hadn't, there was never had a period like this where east and west could trade with each other. we'd have a disruption in phone, war rivalry, colonialism all communism. so in a sense, we are just returning to the normal. but some of the issues that we have discussed quite predictable, like the incoming trump administration. and the lateral actions that are planned by a number of governments which are they all have been quite transparent about they all consequences of each other's reactions. and it's basically a no stand talks a cult tail of getting them out for elizabeth protectionism if you like. whereas other issues, for example, like climate change will be much, much more in predictable. kimberly on that, no, do you do agree with, with what you heard just then we're talking about supply chains being in the state

of flux right now, but, but all they always when it's the very nature of the amount they changing, adapting as circumstances and technology evolves is there anything you feel that's particularly unusual about now? i think was particularly unusual about the moment we're in now is the massive energy transition that's called for in order to achieve. so piracy agreement on climate change, which puts pressure on all nations and then has consequences for trade. because countries will need to rethink where they are getting the energy from. they will need to rethink the components and inputs into those uh, energy mixes. and i do think that there is a big risk at the moment that trade tensions actually leave a lot of opportunities on the table. so for example, lowering tar s as opposed to raising tariffs on that in clean energy inputs could actually increase trade by 5 percent globally united states or from the world trade organization. where is tyrus?

for example, if the u. s. was a levy terrace on canada. canada is a major source of the us is energy inputs that's on oil of course, but that is nonetheless still important to the us economy right now. so i think it's really important for countries to consider as really to look into that trade policies and get, get the mixture right as they undertake that transition and a way that ensures energy security, but also the energy transmission of the how they're picking up on, on what the culture and kimberly was saying that what you see is as a, as the main threats, i mean at the climate change is going to have an impact, obviously, but trade tensions to people of become pretty used to seeing goods on the local shop. so shelves from all over the world is not going to change. do you think? i don't think that particular aspect of consumerism will change or you know, the available availability of choice. i think we might see prices kind of go up.

um, my main concern is the geo politics. uh, we know where donald trump stands. he, he thinks of terraces as the most beautiful word. and he's already announced and add that. and on day one of his administration, he will apply 25 percent terrace on all goods from canada and mexico and 25 percent at least, but only more heavy levies on uh, goods from china. and he's linked it to, to the migrant border security problem. in the united states, m to the pension of prizes the, the hope yards crisis in the united states saying, well, you know, i'm doing this to punish those, those countries um, for the migrant problem and for the drug problem. so, um, i mean,

it sounds quite performative. uh, but the, in the bag will be significant because the disruptions will not just uh, may companies, manufacturers exporters to the united states, leasing the supply chains that already exist. but that'll take a long time for them to do so, but it will also have a significant disruptions to global trade. and indeed, um the, the, the, the rate of inflation around the world. and so these are policies that are being made not with any evidence or sense or logic, but they're all performative really and, and that kind of volatility, that kind of unpredictability, if you will, even though we know what kind of what's coming. i mean that's create,

i think the problem is risks for business risks for people who are in the supply chain business and that just risks for the consumer concerns for the consumer. so there's a lot of talk about trade will of being funded around of the above. and what exactly do we mean when, when we, when we say trade words, it sounds pretty frightening for, for those of us who has never experienced a trade. well, what does it mean for the likes of you? and i know i would actually like to dispute that statement because a bull practitioner sounds bad. we have been a constant state or trade, or since 1968. ever since the kennedy around people have tried to settle their differences. try and rules via inter governmental negotiations in geneva. and when they fail, they taking it lateral actions, whether it's over frozen chicken or cars, or we have to account about the data centers. this has been basically the norm.

it's only when the news actually shit, the headlines that we are talking about for a tool. so in other words, trading the war is actually a normal state of things, but it is quite unprecedented until the 1st trumpet ministration, that the big on the right of that rule based over the united states have decided that the current rules don't work for us anymore. and try to force the all of these come to pods. and then these and allies are like into a re negotiation with the current rules and they couldn't bring them by basically for us to meet with tires if they don't show up to the negotiation table. so from many of the businesses out there, they will see that they have a need, a subjective guitars, or they have been subjected to this from nation or forced localization of the factories into export markets. so trade war with tips for tant action that has been

actually a part of the norm. but it is seeing this coming from a major power trading partner like united states who has tried to abide by the rule . but that was a fault for these rules. are going completely back on this problem is, is what's basically changed to print. kimberly whether the big global institutions fit into this institutions that are designed to facilitate trade and to mediate in disputes. organizations like the w t o for the for existence, which for instance, while the, which a seemed well, i mean unable to do anything about the recent spots of a trade as well. the w 2 is a membership driven organization composed of its $160.00 plus members. so in the end, they choose what they wish to, to move forward as how cert was saying. the ideal is that you bring a $160.00 plus governments to the table. you identify the optimum principles that

are going to at golf and you'll economic your domestic economic policy making. and that provides a degree of session to, to the market which business particularly love. and i would argue is absolutely fundamental as we undertake a massive energy and green economy transition. we need that 2nd t. however, we are into a political times now that achieving that agreement or what should be the principles behind our economic policy making is going to be very difficult. how among the 160 now we still have this basis. the w show is there and it has its set of rules. the question is, how do we update that rulebook for the new challenges that are being faced. the digital economy, artificial intelligence at the green, the green transition. and i think bringing a 160 to the table around those questions will be challenging, as i've said. so we may need to look at what might be simpler, electro arrangements and we call those arrangements between a subset of countries. a 100 what. what do you make of what, what kimberly was was saying is the w t o more or less irrelevant now as

well, i think under the current circumstances, yes, to some extent. i mean, there needs to be real reform or the wto for uh, you know, the united states to get back on board, but that's not gonna happen. no, ever, much reform. we might see for the next 4 years, a chunk of that, it doesn't matter of, you know, i would make this point, but i agree that you know, this was said earlier trade wars, that kind of the norm. yes. right. but i think there is an unprecedented nature to repeat that of the kind of level of jazz and where they're emanating from and what they're being used for. um and, and also i would also agree that or argue that the diversification of the supply chains particularly away from china is that

something new in it it's, it's, we've had this kind of china plus strategy with many manufacturers, exporters from china, or investors in china who are investing and export manufacturing they've been doing and, and going to other countries like paying the days get and, and, and, and indeed, been showing or near shoring, to mexico and things like that. so we've seen a, a significant rise. and in this p dates the pandemic rebates drum there as a rise in those kinds of exports going to the united states. now, the question is, the republicans have already raised the alarm about, well, you know, increased export import is coming from mexico. what's their provenance, are they coming from companies that are connected to china and those companies then might be cut off. so the geo politics again, creates a, a kind of uncertainty where because of this geo political risk, this,

this move towards the coupling and in the web. the nice ation of trade in the name of national security. or because the united states wants to deal with these border problem, or whether it's drug prices or less for that back to tell us that, that i saw you shaking your head on certain points they read and nobody can agreement to one point as well. what do you have to say, 1st of all, on, on multi lateral organizations by the w t a as well or kimberly's? absolutely. right. as she always is, uh, regarding the nature of that to you as a member of an organization. but i will also say this as a form of delegate to the document here, that's w t o was created in a time at the late eighty's and the rules when they go series is around a period of let's say, and the cold war. and the rules were practically designed to keep eastern europe on track towards democracy and market economy. not necessarily

to tie down a state capitalist entities that we see today in east asia. nora is it designed to deal with jo, strategic tensions between arrivals because they was our unique period of time where they were not arrivals aside from a couple of countries that were not actually members of the dumpster here. in other words, the video was a set of rules that existed among a small cluster of countries that actually already trusted each other. so the, one of the mistakes, if you're like a, is that the membership has expanded to incorporate the countries that don't necessarily trust each other. this is actually outside the unique steps of uh, let's say circumstances which drives us to our situation, branded ability or has become completely irrelevant. i will make 2 points in context of this, which is that if the roles have stopped making sense,

we can clearly say that the 2 countries in the world, well, absolutely happy with us, come on circumstances are they are one of these been united states because it has the ability to force other numbers into have some new organization or a new a negotiation or new agreements based on what they want. and the long term has effectively used its terrorist to force people into the as that goes to the other one is china and things to its massive growth and internal markets. but also to a certain degree, it's his, him on a piece. caustic hemisphere morning hours in this region. it has become a very, very attractive power for those who are lord by it. and for everyone else. basically, we are living in the lucian, where we believe that the roost. ready pine, several pillows, all that i brought to you have already been coming dysfunctional. i mean, the addition to that, didn't any of them bastards now have i agree to speed up the appointment of

a director general who is very, very strongly disliked by the united states. but also trumpet mistakenly in particular, this is a declaration of war by the deputy of against trumpet ministration. at the bare minimum, we will see the funding and bulky hub or activities in the t o. in the worst case scenario, we might even see united states leaving the government to you are trying to set up a w to 2 points that are elsewhere. kimberly, i mean, i got the feeling that books, well, i had to know he will correct me if i'm wrong, but the hostile can alejandro and i kind of against trump in terms of his is trade policies. is there any positive, i mean, can we find something positive in what? and what trump says what he's going to do in a 2nd. i mean, what's, what's wrong with protectionism? i'm putting america 1st. so i wouldn't comment on one nation's whether one nation is policies are correct or not. i think what is important is that every nation

looks at the economic policy settings as part of that project objectives for delivering growth and prosperity. so that's, that's and that's what trade policy is. it is ultimately a tool in the broader tool kits that governments have to deliver economic growth. now, there are also big debates across the world within nations and between nations. and whether growth is the pure objective and the only objective that we should be striving for, should we not also be striving for a healthy planet, for fat and just societies? and i think we, we've known for a very long time since we set the sustainable development goals in 2015 that we have to do all of that together. we have to do at social inclusion. we have to do environmental objectives and we have to, we cannot make grades, we cannot ignore any one of those pillars and trade ultimately, as a tradition, the more economic tool has to evolve to be able to at. so the other pellets as well

. but equally, we cannot forget that trade is fundamental about driving growth. so i would say simply that, and as governments set that trade policies, they need to examine if those trade policies are going to drive sustainable growth for that populations or not, and not the basis on which they should be evaluating how successful they are. i don't know how to you, you were talking about connect to countries, the rise of connect to countries that so let's, let's talk about that for a moment. some of these countries, i suppose, found to benefit from a trade war, countries like vietnam, india, india, outside asia, mexico, we've component as well up, to some extent, some of them emerging economies to find themselves now playing a much bigger role in the improve global trade networks. that's a good thing, is this? yes, but you know, again, if they remain vulnerable, if the, the biggest player the united states is going to look into, well, is this company that's exporting x to the united states?

is this owned by chinese interest or chinese interest that that shifted their uh, production from mainland china to mexico and then exclude them. i mean, that's already on the radar screen of the united states legislators. and indeed, there is legislation in the united states that that will probably be provided in the next congress that would withdrawal permanent normal trade relations with, from china, which will have not just an effect on the us in china. well, i have an effect globally and inflationary big decides. so i mean, the rules of, of, of what terrace are and what tires do. don't change just because donald trump says these, it's a beautiful word. and you know, he wants to use them as a tool to get people to the negotiating table doesn't. it doesn't change the fact

that you impose these data as it's not the country that you're trying to punish or the couple from or at the risk from or exclude, or whatever it's paying them. it's a tax on, on, on your consumers, on your citizens. and it's inflationary, i think the, by the end of ministration, was quite remiss up not removing the initial tears, the trumpet imposed on china. and that was a, me a call as of inflation. and then you know, up to it, right. so i think that, um, okay, you know, you can use that as parents as a tool, a casual, but what do you actually end up doing to? are you harming? what are, what are you are you actually gaining? and does it even help with the deficit? say, and i don't think that's going to be the case and that is where we're going to have to end our discussion. we're out of time up fest with isaac, but a section data to all of your posts. a kimberly. and i 100 good to have you with us on counting the cost. and if you'd like to join in with the discussion,

you can treat me. i'm at a finnigan on x. try to remember to use the hash tag a j c t c, because then everyone joining the discussion to you could also drop us a line causing the cost of out is 0. don't that is our email address. as always, there's plenty more. few online out is there a dot com slash ctc that takes you straight to the page and then you'll find individual reports links even a time additions for you to catch up on that. is it for this additional? counting the cost? i'm adrian's, going to get it from the team here. thanks for joining us. but he is on al jazeera is next the latest news that are to 100 pounds and missing people from the time it is here saying that they have not received any single need with detailed coverage. this is the sunset of them off. the subdivisions have been taking place every single day since the fall of the form that i see from around the world. it is

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