thousands of housing is, will have been forcibly this place from the hoss of the story is very systematic and deliberate. destruction of causes me with that infrastructure has left more than 2000000 people in a space of commerce. can struggle the trouble, the, comes to an end, lives destroyed by was in sudan garza and ukraine regimes. somebody in controlling ever go now gone adult from defies the quotes and critics to win the us selection. so what lies in store for 2025. this is in science story, the hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a them so 2024 comes to an end. but in so dan, gauze and ukraine to name

a few places was grind on big political out people to serious asset gone. almost overnight shift has seen that ousted off the weeks of protests in bangladesh . don't front began the year in deep legal trouble, but survive not only the quotes, but us knife is bullet to. and he won the 2nd term as us president in africa difficult year for former revolutionary policies in government like the amc in south africa. so how well 2024 will be seen in history books and what lies in store and twenty's 25. well, let's get straight into it with 3 guests from different parts of the world. we have many. hello, they a columbus for durham, and former pa, kasanya and boss of the to the united states, the united kingdom and the united nations. she joins us from islam about could be the move, managing direct, sir. it be can security and intelligence

a political analysis consultancy. he joins us from a buddha. i'm chris, we've a chief executive officer, the consultant, se macro advisory. he joins us from london, a warm welcome to old. if i could stop with it, kept bits in a. bu just so. is it fair to say 2024? its been a year of instability and unpredictability could be uh yes, uh, to an extent uh, as far as the pretend concession funds and then just concerned we could look at it from the major on those the economy. uh, that has been largely on stable and on sutton. we saw a protest in different parts of the continent in kenya, in south africa in 90. that effect, that needs to be put in the coast ability in those countries. however, we saw in gonna the transition that was largely a claim to successful in spite of the very unsuccessful electro put out in

countries like more than big and to an extended 902, i'm gonna prove to them slightly different. of course climate change was also an area that affected several countries within the african continent. so under poll, yes, 2024 was yeah, for lots of events. and that can be described definitely. and it's been, it's been a tough. yeah. and not just for africa, if we bring chris into this, been the a bit of unraveling in the middle east region to from gaza to. busy how we saying something, all of a re alignment's, a recalculation and the balance of power. yeah, i think it's fair to look at it that way and, and perhaps is to some extent, links with the consequence of the continuing war in europe on the edge of europe. and ukraine, russia, and also the, the return of trump. it seems as if there are a lot of kind of long standing on certainties are,

are issues that are now at least i've now been resolved, or at least there's an efforts to resolve them to bring them to do ahead. if you'd like, either trump is regardless, somebody just could be unpredictable in the global stage, a disruptor for sure, in terms of, of trade and other political relations. and it seems as if there are a lot of kind of a people in our, in countries in different regions to see this as an opportunity to kind of do it on finished business. you know, turkey a obviously was very instrumental in what happened in, in syria, you know, israel, of course, there that there, that the start of the war a guys or what was from october of, of 23. so the before trump, but clearly nobody's returning. it will indulge in israel to continue and to perhaps expand deal with other longstanding kind of practices that i see. so the words a ran, but yeah, i think across the world we are seeing

a lot of kind of very long standing situations being resolved or attempts to resolve them. and i think it is a goal to try and so it will continue in 2025 on that point, lee, have we seen a lot of unfinished business, particularly in the middle east. that is going to carry over into 2024. i mean, israel has demonstrated an immense destructive capacity. it stands accused of genocide. but there's a lot of unfinished business when it comes to protecting its or securing its southern board of securing its northern border, securing its shipping ability. it's the terran capability from a ron where we've seen that on the mind. and of course we have to mention the palestinians, remain under occupation. and according to what 36 you and expos

described on november, the 16th as a genocide in the making that was november 16th 2023. all of that. and. busy of unfinished business. let me just say a few words about the overall global environment. i think the world today seems more unstable and unpredictable than at any time since the end of the quarter. well, we see hyphen geopolitical tensions. we see of course, what you mentioned. war in the middle is war, continue in gaza award imposed by israel and the palestinian people in ukraine. and of course, uncertainties in the global risk environment order, which seemed to make the international outlook. a very troubled one for the year ahead of the global order itself. has been frequenting, and i think if you look at how the word has dealt with the ballast, didn't issue the warning garza, i think this has been a crisis of humanity and the world has let down the people up. at this time. we

have seen the un failing in its obligation and its duty of course to you and is as strong in or as weak as its members state specially the major pos, the b 5. as they accord the permanent 5 members of the security council. but in any case, what we have seen is that the security council completely paralyzed in the face. and is it many, how would you say it's precisely the position of some of those world powers in the conferenced in their positions on the conflict in ukraine versus that the conflict in gaza that has really highlighted that feeling of a discrepancy in double uh, double standards when it comes to rule of law or rules based older international law and human rights. and so yes, absolutely. i think the duplicity, the double speak and the double standards practiced by not just the major bonds,

but essentially wisdom the boss. i think the failure of the united states to live up to its claims that it is the great defended and advocate of human rights and the word. i mean, we see that a more criminal not that it was news. so certainly wasn't breaking news, but it highlighted an underline the tragedy that these major pause, particularly wisdom pauses. a said just to refuse to act. in the face of genocide, game is drawing a blank check. and israel is continuing to. so ma'am, and to create the kind of conditions in the middle east, which would be very difficult to address down the road. i mean, you talked about on finished business. there's unfinished business everywhere. it seems. and i think the question that with the president elect, donald trump, in his 2nd term with alicia. well, what type he did in global affairs is something that, uh, you know, we are waiting in anticipation to see how that would play out. so i was told also

about more more of that in the mobile. uh, i'm keen to get, could be it back into the discussion. and will that sort of trend to the, the feeling cubby, or all of a collapse in the international order, or a crumbling at least, maybe collapses to big or would, but a crumbling of the international order, as we knew it, for sure, that's going to reverberate beyond the middle east, how is it being seen in africa and places which no doubt taking note of what's going on? definitely a multi lot structurally. they must, we know it has subsided blue, mainly because of the events that i've been described by my code of costs and events in the middle list position the, the wall tests taken to allow users to continue. you know, it's activity if and, and of course, expanding it to other parts of the middle lift, you'd have definitely affected this trend of the month to lower,

relatively must we know it. but in all of that, the increase in i solutions they live in that with fee. and in some countries that is likely going to be embedded with trauma in power in the united states. and of course, the new position in the euro will take will definitely have a heat on, on africa, the war and through done, he's also one of the forgotten was to, to, to speak. the attention and interest of most of the develop all has been on you ukraine with very little attention and so done. and so what's the chemical increase the cooking shows of this in this a hell, the federal crisis that ongoing. the fact that countries that i've been taking a lot of the lessons that the countries are drawing from that lack of attention. um, so unfortunately it looks like on the one hand, its allowing the entrenchment of, quote unquote, on democratic governance, which was the point that was going to make. and of course, the, the,

the new position in the unit is allowing concrete blank for russia. and to, and extend to china, to gain a foothold is that the weight and several african countries on one of the major concerns and trinity, trinity 5, would be the, your point to call the pension that would create the mall, or a child finds itself in grand and those concrete dom, all the western countries would feel uncomfortable. and so you may see every petition of the cycle that we saw during the cold war with the reference of it. and in parts of a free country between the 5. interesting, the more that those tensions rise globally. now the hot spots a most of the impact of the areas around the globe. it's really interesting to pick it up with a pot and see how it's interlinked. chris, you, you mentioned iran does 2024. and with this scene set for a will between israel and iran. yes, i think he's absolutely does. and the critical factor, excuse me, is the name of the well then chris, i'm sorry to jump in, but when you go down to the a word or 2, but i know that that is a huge prognosis,

isn't that as well? the days of this activity is something that president trump wants to see happen, and that's why i think it is. it is a very high risk as we come in in, into the year at the, the, the return of him to the white us. uh, you know, obviously one of the immediate impacts of course, would be in the energy markets it ran despite sanctions, has been able to continue to exports. significant amount of oil, mostly to china. traders estimate that is about 1600000 barrels of oil a day, you know, for the last year. so if, if there was an attack on the iranian energy or our export infrastructure to interior, anything would be a spike on the oil prices as an immediate effect. but then you'd, a broader than that, of course, is if iran is attacked and you would blame the us for that. then whatever restraints we now see from 2 rand with regard to its behavior in the middle east with hezbollah, or, you know, in the approximate least,

or perhaps even in the broader region. those restraints would probably end and it would feel that it has nothing to lose. so i think it is partly to of course energy traders are looking at this very closely on a day by day basis. but i think the broader implications is that if a ryan is attacked heavily and decides that there's no point in the like the continuing it's restraints, then we could have a much broader conflict across the whole region. so i think it is that that's for me, it's almost the most significant and most dangerous factor to look at as we come in to $25.00. now they have just listening to chris is analysis that then we go to ask the question, then the central, i guess one of the central questions is donald trump does 2025 lead to a greater or less a chance of peace than with a donald trump in the white house, you know, he's, he's, he's random, or he's talked about ending forever, was ending the ukraine war. but you just listen to the analysis from, from many,

not just chris who say of the when it comes to around in israel. the world might be heading in a different direction. why look, we're looking at a president elect, who is a material person. he has a personality that we all know is very unpredictable. he can shift costs suddenly a to everyone's surprise. but he's also a man known for his transaction approach. and he's somebody who is said throughout the election campaign that he wants to end wars not stopped. and he said he wants to in the water ukraine. he said he'd ended in 24 hours. if it was up to him, so let's see what he brings to the table. he will be said he wants to seize 5 and gossip. let's see if he can do that, although i think he will do that. one is right, it's terms ashville, iran, i, i disagree. i don't very much. if america, under trump will encourage is right to attack or on look it on has stuff with the

grid set back from recent developments. we all know that the excess of resistance has been much we couldn't. and therefore, i think logic points to the united states wanting to have some kind of negotiations with the weaker. we got it wrong. uh but emily, have you got, do you listen to the statement? some is right officials, i seem to be drawing up the sort of history of conflict with the wrong. is it all at least possible they might drag the us into something the us of might look that's, that's been the dream auction hasn't that? and i mean, they've been trying that for you, because uh, perhaps even that more than a decade. but they haven't succeeded have that. so i, i don't know, i have my doubts and i think a dining to my own region if i may for a minute. uh, i think uh the in fact uh off. uh so i know uh us confrontation on my beach and uh, my country is located in south asia. i think we,

we need to look at uh with the and how the stabilizing. that could be a, uh, full uh, box on india and the other country. is that going to utah? the issue already uh, south issues of a trouble region. uh, we see a box on the finest on, you know, engaged or still it is. uh, because i find a son continues to be a safe haven, a fucked interests that to take undertaker trustworthy to attacks against my country. then between docusign in india, i think the diplomatic and boss continues. so, you know, you've talked about the team of unfinished business, there's lots that's unfinished in south issue. we've all ready to be addressed or i'll come back to you at this point. past the point, i would say that as a neighbor to figure on pocket sound would be very concerned about another conflict . just adjacent or not neighborhood. in fact, all right,

that you've made some important points. so no doubt would like to come back and talk more about the sign though us and go. but before we do that, chris, briefly always seeing in the us, we've seen something of the change of changing of fortunes in 2024 when it comes to ukraine. and russia, which we've mentioned a few times, is that find like they continue with the, with the rush and getting stronger on the battlefield. some areas that looked at. yeah, look, i think of the face of it. obviously, we can see from reports that russia is gaining on the battlefields, but it is facing more difficult economic conditions. and i actually am a lot more hopeful that we could at least get to the point of a ceasefire. and the start of a piece process is obviously a very long piece of a process of relatively early in this year. the proxy of course, it's because of trump. but i think despite the kind of 30 strong statements that are come from care of and some moscow continuously,

both when you look at both countries needs this war 2 ends dirty ukraine is in a difficult position for reasons that we all know there's a lot of domestic kind of a growing domestic pressure also to find a way to end to war. but with, in russia, despite the staples, from the kremlin, the economy is starting to suffer from particularly financial sector transactions. sanction is the difficulty in making payments and, and being paid for, for exports, that starting to have an impact and the other distortions in the economy. you know, that because of the law of employment and job back and cetera, these issues all need to be addressed. so it seems to me that both sides are waiting for a president, elect trump on these invoices to retire generally kellogg, to come to both with a mixture of threats and incentives to force boats to the table. and as one minister told me recently, he said he believes that both sides will go to the table were left in the lee,

but with considerable relief. so i have, you mentioned you threats and incentives could be when it comes to china. us relations. does it look like 2025 is kicking off with a bigger prospect's of threats? and what does that mean for the welf? a problem. all right, here we're harring rhetoric from the president elect us president elect on the contact information of on some follow sanctions. then of course, china's position on that too. is it similar? now what, what that would mean for the walls on the one hand would be challenges to some sutton countries, but an opportunity for those when new, my caps be open and have caused enough. rico, 6, several countries are looking at that and how that would play out, i think, would significantly depend on how it is to lead us to pay out this for what probably going to be a long treat. was it wherever it between them. but on the whole i see more

opportunities then the challenge is done. defend is present. smelly. has the one as a that's common. the hallmarks rise across many is not all of the reasons of the world has been a cost of living crisis. well, that's right. and i think if a president electronic actually goes ahead with the kind of data for increases that he's threatening or promising against china. and of course, against other countries that have a trade surplus with the united states. then i think that's going to fuel a for the inflation across the word. i don't think that's going to ease the problems and the challenges to the global economy. but i also think that, you know, and we were talking about the us, china a send off or confrontation. i also think that, you know, given again his transaction or attitude, either we're going to see a real intensification of the trade war. the data for that you were just mentioning,

or we might just see president trump driving the kind of a grand bargain with the chinese government, because the chinese candid don't want to fight. and trump is many times during the election camp. instead, he respects president shooting thing that he has a desire for a better relationship with china. so, so he's always seeing both sort of country trends as well. oh, country statements, but a business plan is likely to, i think want to have some kind of a deal with china rather than an endless confrontation. so a little more optimistic on that front of a deal when we talk. so when we talk about deals, when we're on the climate deal, we with the trump administration coming back into powell, we saw him take us out of the paris accord chris square. do you think 2025 is likely to see the world go on climate issues as well?

i thought i would expect a present electronic to be maybe less and less opposition as to if you like or less obstructive to decline. but issues this don't want to do stuff like that and chris won't want signals, does it? have you seen the? because a lot has happened in the world of the last 4 years. they these very a lot more of this damage that is being done because of climate change. we've had more v, like more of more evidence of the impact of board disasters. it's more difficult for, for people to deny the impact of climate change. it's a since he was last president's. now that's not to say he's going to suffer any sort of tiffany or transformation or whatever, as you say, he's already here these days is that he wants to us to continue to develop it's, it's hydro carpenter's orsis. he's already told europe that, you know,

one of the ways for europe to avoid any trace tires with us is for them to buy more us energy, more oil, more gas. so it's quite clear that he, he does intend, you know, giving all of assistance to the energy hydrocarbon industry to continue developing . but at the same time, as i say the, the evidence has continues to manage and has mounted. and i don't think can be as obstructive to climate cooperation as he was before, but he clearly is not going to be a strong advocate either. it's it to slow down the us response. but having said that, the us versus even the us response or the us a position with regard to climate change in the last several years has been very, very weak in the sense that you've had been very strong statements of intent from the white house, but almost no follow through because they have been able to either because of opposition and congress are or lack of, uh, ability to at least trump looks like he will be stronger. so even if he commits to

a smaller pass, it more likely will get done. then we've seen under the bite administration, so a bit of a contradiction. i know, but that's what i would expect and could be of there's a lot at stake for developing countries, especially small i nations it's, it's a matter of survival. when we spoke about climate issues, right. the definitely the, the impact of climate change or by the last few. yes. in 2024 has been some really um, high concrete stuff felt. uh, you know, what did it slot issues and defective vacation. then you're going to blow the globe of the woman consequences and competence of that. so we're likely to see more action, especially to qualify for google increased by some form of re re peroration. and the platforms that out there, including the most trouble level for me to get into risk of climate change and not

impact it significantly operate on concrete. so in pretty 25, the call. what that is likely to increase, where we see more african countries mentioned the case for some form of you know, report, regional support to, to meet to get their rates cut them climate change. all right. i think we've got a about a minute left. so really high as we are saying, perhaps in some areas, a withdrawal of, of interest from global powers, whether it's a multi lateral action on climate. it's on the, on the range of multilateral issues. whether it's the issue you mentioned the moments ago. but in the us interest, enough kind of stand the global interest that she mentioned in the show in sedan in that conflict, are we likely, is that going to increase the trend of local axes, local and regional powers, trying to fill the vacuum? what does that mean? does that mean creates a instability?

i think that's a great question and i think it really points to a something we haven't discussed so far, which is the rise of major pause because the world does not have any kind of type by formality today. and there's a plenty of space there for other countries, plus global bar has been, you know, is disposing of, there's been a shift in the global better and so far. so we see emitter pause playing a much greater role in shaping global geo politics. countries like the key countries like so the rubia of south africa. many of those as well. i mean, i don't want to go through a list. and so yes, absolutely. i think the move uh america sort of, it draws it into in america 1st. which sort of, in a way it leads to a kind of a big drawer from many areas of many reasons of the word, the more the opportunities for me deposit to play a role, especially at the regional level. right. it's going to be interesting, no doubt,

to watch way of 2025 goes. i think we can all agree on that. that's thank our guess for the comments on this show. many hello, the could be a demo. and chris wafer and sign q 2 for was a you can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. i'll just say we're a don't com funds for further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story could also join the conversation on x. l handle is at a inside story from me, sammy's a, that on the whole team here for now, is go by the a wave of criminal violence has risen headquarters with drug talk tells, raising the challenging of forwards prison rights for political assassinations. ecuador has plunged from one of the safest countries in latin america to one of the

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