i also became d r e c. the be students and a totally the timeless journey i travel, the comes to an end lives destroyed by was in sedan garza and ukraine regimes. somebody in consoling, ever go now gone adult from defies the quotes and critics to bring the us selection . so what lies in store for 2025. this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the show i'm signed these i them. so 2024 comes to an end,

but in sudan garza and ukraine to name a few places was grind on big political out people to serious asset gone almost overnight. sure. i see now ousted off the weeks of protests in bangladesh. donald trump began the year in deep legal trouble, but survive not only the quotes, but us knife is bullet to. and he won the 2nd term as us president in africa difficult here for former revolutionary policies in government like the amc in south africa. so how well 2024 will be seen in history books and what lies in store in 2025. well, let's get straight into it with 3 gas from different parts of the world. we have many hello, they call them is for doime and form of focused on the on bus of the to the united states, the united kingdom. and the united nations. she joins us from islamabad. could be a, uh, the move, managing direct sir. it be can 6, etc, and intelligence

a political analysis consultancy. he joins us from a bu, joe and chris. we've a chief executive officer of the consultancy macro advisory. he joins us from london, a warm welcome to well, if i could stop with could be in a, bu, just so is it fair to say 2024? it's been a year of instability and unpredictability could be uh, yes, uh, to an extent as far as the african consent funds and then just consent. we could look at it from the major on those. the economy that has been largely on stable and on on sutton. we saw protests in different parts of the continent in kenya, inside africa, in 90. the effect that they taught the politicos to ability in those countries. however, we saw in gonna be transition that was largely a claim to successful in spite of the very unsuccessful electro pulled out in

countries like more than big and to an extended 902, i'm gonna prove to them slightly different. of course the climate change was also an area that affected several countries. we didn't do if we can continent so under, oh, yes, 2024 was yeah. for lots of events and that can be described definitely. and it's been, it's been a tough. yeah. and not just for africa, if we bring chris into this, have been a bit of unraveling in the middle east region to from garza to syria, how we say, and something of a re alignments, a recalculation in the balance of power. yeah, i think it's fair to look at it that way and then perhaps is to some extent links with the consequence of the continuing war in york on the edge of europe in ukraine, russia, and also the, the return of trump. it seems as if there are a lot of kind of long standing uncertainties are, are issues that are now,

or at least i've now been resolved, or at least there's an efforts to resolve them to bring them to do ahead. if you'd like, either trump is regardless, somebody just could be unpredictable as a global stage, a disruptor for sure, in terms of, of trade and other political relations. and it seems as if there are a lot of kind of a people in our, in countries and different regions to see this as an opportunity to kind of do it on finished business. uh, you know, turkey a obviously was very instrumental in what happened in, in syria, you know, israel, of course, there that there, that the start of the war a guys or what was from october of, of 23. so the before trump, but clearly nobody's returning, it will indulge in israel to continue and to perhaps expand deal with other longstanding kind of practices. they see other words, iran, but yeah,

i think across the world we are seeing a lot of kind of very long standing situations being resolved or attempts to resolve them. and i think it is a goal to try and so it will continue in 2025 on that point melisha, have we seen a lot of unfinished business, particularly in the middle east. that is going to carry over into 2024. i mean, israel has demonstrated an immense destructive capacity. it stands accused of genocide. but there's a lot of unfinished business when it comes to protecting its or securing its southern board of securing its northern border, securing its shipping ability. it's the terran capability from a ron where we've seen that on the mind. and of course we have to mention the palestinians, remain under occupation. and according to what 36 you and expos

described on november, the 16th as a genocide in the making that was november 16th 2023. all of that. and. busy of unfinished business. let me just say a few words about the overall global environment. i think the world today seems more unstable and unpredictable than at any time since the end of the quarter. well, we see hyphen geopolitical tensions. we see of course, what you mentioned. war in the middle is war, continue in gaza award imposed by israel and the palestinian people in ukraine. and of course, uncertainties in the global risk environment order, which seemed to make the international outlook. a very troubled one for the year ahead of the global order itself. has been frequenting, and i think if you look at how the word has dealt with the ballast, didn't issue the warrant garza, i think this has been a crisis of humanity and the world has let down. the people looked at this time a we have seen the un failing in its obligation and its duty of cost to you and is

as strong in or as weak as its members state specially the major pos, the b 5. as they accord the permanent 5 members of the security council, but in any case, what we have seen is that the security council completely paralyzed in the face. and is it many, how would you say it's precisely the position of some of those world powers in the conferenced in their positions on the conflict in ukraine versus that the conflict in gaza that has really highlighted that feeling of a discrepancy in double uh, double standards when it comes to rule of law or rules based older international law and human rights. and so yes, absolutely. i think the duplicity, the double speak and the double standards practiced by not just the major bonds,

but essentially wisdom the boss. i think the failure of the united states to live up to its claims that it is the great defended and advocate of human rights and the word. i mean, we see that a more criminal not that it was news. so certainly wasn't breaking news, but it highlighted an underline the tragedy that these major pause, particularly the wisdom pauses. i said, just to refuse to act in the face of genocide, game is drawing a blank check. and israel is continuing to so me m a and to create the kind of conditions in the middle east, which would be very difficult to address down the road. i mean, you talked about on finished business, this unfinished business everywhere. it seems. and i think the question that with the president elect donald trump is 2nd to them with alicia will be here in global affairs. is something that uh, you know, we are waiting in anticipation to see how that would play out. so i was told also

about more more of that in the mobile. uh, i'm keen to get, could be it back into the discussion. and will that sort of trend to the, the feeling could be, or all of a collapse in the international order or a crumbling at least, maybe collapses to bigger would, but a crumbling of the international order, as we knew it for sure that's going to reverberate beyond the middle east, how is it being seen in africa and places which no doubt taking note of what's going on? definitely a multi lot structurally. they must, we know it has subsided blue, mainly because of the events that i've been described by my code of costs and events in the middle list position the, the wall tests taken to allow either way to continue or, you know, it's activity if and, and of course expanding it to other parts of the middle lift. you'd have definitely affected this trend of the month to lower relatively must we know it. but in all of

that, the increase in efficiency, nearly that with fee and in some countries that is likely going to be embedded with trauma in power in the united states. and of course, the new position in the euro will take will definitely have a heat on, on africa, the war and through done, he's also one of the forgotten was to, to, to speak. the attention and interest of most of the develop all has been on you ukraine with very little attention and so done. and so with the chemical increase the cooking shows of this, in this a hell, the federal crisis that own going. the fact that countries that i've been taking a lot of the lessons that the countries are drawing from that lack of attention. so unfortunately, it looks like on the one hand, its allowing the entrenchment don't put the code on democratic governance, which was the point that was going to make. and of course, the, the,

the new position in the unit is allowing concrete blank for russia. and to, and extend to china, to gain a foothold is that the weight and several african countries on one of the major concerns and trinity, trinity 5, would be the, your point to call the pension that would create the mall, or a child finds itself in grand and those concrete dom all the western countries which feels uncomfortable. and so you may see every petition of the cycle that we saw during the cold war with the reference of it. and in parts of a free country between the 5 interesting the most of those tensions rise globally. now the hot spots a most of the impact of the areas around the globe. it's really interesting to pick it up with a pot and see how it's interlinked. chris, you, you mentioned iran does 2024 and with this scene set for a will between israel and iran. yes, i think he's absolutely does. and the critical factor, excuse me, is what's the name of the well then chris, i'm sorry to jump in by the way you go down to the

a word or 2. but i know that that is a huge prognosis. isn't that? well, the days of this activity is something that presents travel. it wants to see happen, and that's why i think it is. it is a very high risk as we come in in, into the year at the, the, the return of him to the white us. uh, you know, obviously one of the immediate impacts of course, would be in the energy markets it ran despite sanctions, has been able to continue to exports. significant amount of oil, mostly to china. traders estimate that is about 1600000 barrels of oil a day, you know, for the last year. so if, if there was an attack on the iranian energy or our export infrastructure to interior, anything would be a spike on the oil prices as an immediate effect. but then you'd, a broader than that, of course, is if iran is attacked and you would blame the us for that. then whatever restraints we now see from 2 rand with regard to its behavior in the middle east with hezbollah, or, you know, in the approximate least,

or perhaps even in the broader region. those restraints would probably end and it would feel that it has nothing to lose. so i think it is partly to of course, energy traders are looking at this very closely on a day by day basis. but i think the broader implications is that if a ran is attacked heavily and decides that there's no point in the like the continuing it's restraints, then we could have a much broader conflict across the whole region. so i think it is that that's for me, it's almost the most significant and most dangerous factor to look at as we come in to $25.00. now they have just listening to chris is analysis. then we go to ask the question, then the central, i guess one of the central questions is donald trump does 2025 lead to a greater or less a chance of peace than with a donald trump in the white house? you know, he's, he's, he's random or he's talked about ending forever, was ending the ukraine war. but you just listen to the analysis from, from many,

not just chris who say of the when it comes to around in israel. the world might be heading in a different direction. why look, we're looking at a president elect, who is a maturity of us and he has a personality that we all know is very unpredictable. he can shift costs suddenly a to everyone's surprise. but he's also a man known for his transaction approach. and he's somebody who is said throughout the election campaign that he wants to end wars not stopped. and he said he wants to end the water ukraine. he said he'd ended in 24 hours. if it was up to him, so let's see what he brings to the table. he will be said he wants to seize 5 and goes up. let's see if you can do that, although i think he will do that. one is right, it's terms ashville, iran, i, i disagree. i don't very much. if america, under trump will encourage is right to attack or on look it on has stuff with the

grid set back from recent developments. we all know that the excess of resistance has been much weakened and therefore, i think logic points to the united states wanting to have some kind of negotiations with the week a week or wrong. uh but emily, have you got, do you listen to the statement? some is really officials, they seem to be drumming up the sort of history of conflict with the wrong. is it all at least possible they might, drags us into something the us of might look that's, that's been the dream auction hasn't that? and i mean, they've been trying that for you because uh perhaps even that more than a decade. but they haven't succeeded have that. so i, i don't know, i have my doubts and i think a dining to my own region. if i may, for a minute. i think of the in fact off up, so i know us going to condition on my region. my country is located in south asia.

i think we, we need to look at where the and how the stabilizing that could be, uh, uh, full uh, box on india and the other country. is that going to utah the issue already? oh, so to she has a very trouble region. uh, we see a box on the finest on, you know, engaged to a still it is. uh because i find a son continues to be a safe haven, a fucked interests that to take undertaker across the border. the attacks against my country then between docusign in india, i think the diplomatic and boss continues. so, you know, you've talked about the team of unfinished business, there's lots that's unfinished in south issue. we're ready to be addressed or i'll come back to the point task point. i would say that as a neighbor of 8 or on pockets under be very concerned about another conflict. just adjacent or non neighborhood. in fact, all right,

that you made some important points. so no doubt would like to come back and talk more about the sign though us and go. but before we do that, chris, briefly how we seeing the us, we've seen something of a change of changing of full tunes in 2024. when it comes to ukraine and russia, which we've mentioned a few times, is that find like they continue with the, with the rush are getting stronger on the battlefield. some areas that looked at. yeah, look, i think of the face of it. obviously, we can see from reports that russia is gaining on the battlefields, but it is facing more difficult economic conditions. and i actually have a lot more hopeful that we could at least get to the point of a ceasefire. and the start of a piece process is obviously a very long piece of a process of relatively early in this year to have proxy. of course, it's because of trump, but i think despite the kind of very strong statements that are come from care of

and some moscow continuously, both when you look at both countries needs this war to end degree. ukraine is in a difficult position for reasons that we all know there's a lot of domestic kind of a growing domestic pressure also to find a way to end to war. but with in russia, despite the staples from the kremlin, the economy is starting to suffer from particularly financial sector transactions. sanction is the difficulty in making payments and, and being paid for, for exports. that starting to have an impact and the other, the distortions and the economy. you know, that because of the know, unemployment and job back and cetera. these issues all need to be addressed. so it seems to me that both sides are waiting for a president, elect trump on these invoices to retire generally kellogg, to come to both with a mixture of threats and incentives to force boats to the table. and as one minister told me recently, he said he believes that both sides will go to the table were left in play,

but with considerable relief. so i have, you mentioned that threats and incentives could be when it comes to china. us relations. does it look like 2025 is kicking off with the big a prospect's of frets. and what does that mean for the welf as well? um. all righty. uh, we will head reading rhetorics from the president elect us president elect on the contact, information of on some follow sanctions. and of course, train us up with each on that to is it similar? now what, what that would mean for the walls on the one hand would be challenges to some sutton countries, but an opportunity for those when new, my caps be open enough cause enough. rico. 6, several countries are looking at that warehouse that would play out. i think it would significantly depend on how it needs to lead us to pay out this probably probably going to be a long treat, was it wherever it to between them,

but on the whole i see more opportunities then the challenge is done. defend is present smelly. has the one as a that's common, the hallmarks rise across many is not all of the reasons of the world has been a cost of living crisis. well, that's right. and i think if a president electronic actually goes ahead with the kind of data for increases that he's threatening or promising against china. and of course, against other countries that have a trade surplus with the united states. then i think that's going to fuel a for the inflation across the word. i don't think that's going to ease the problems and the challenges to the global economy. but i also think that, you know, and we were talking about the us, china a send off or confrontation. i also think that, you know, given again his transaction or attitude, either we're going to see a real intensification of the trade war. the data for that you were just mentioning,

or we might just see president trump driving the kind of a grand bargain with the chinese government, because the chinese candid don't want to fight. and trump is many times during the election camp. instead, he respects president shooting thing that he has a desire for a better relationship with china. so, so he's always seeing both sort of country trends as well. oh, country statements, but a business plan is likely to, i think want to have some kind of a deal with china rather than an endless confrontation. so a little more optimistic on that front of a deal when we talk. so when we talk about deals, when we're on the climate deal with the trump administration coming back into power, we saw him take us out of the paris accord chris square. do you think 2025 is likely to see the world go on climate issues as well?

i thought i would expect a present electronic to be maybe less and less opposition as to if you like or less obstructive to decline. but issues this don't want to do stuff like that, and chris want signals, does it have you seen the? because a lot has happened in the world of the last 4 years. the eighty's caberry a lot more of this damage that is being done because of climate change. we've had more v like more, more evidence of the impact of board disasters. it's more difficult for, for people to deny the impact of climate change. it's a since he was last president's. now that's not to say he's going to suffer any sort of tiffany or transformation or whatever, as you say, he's already here these days is that he wants to us to continue to develop it's, it's hydro carpenters are says he's already told europe that you know,

one of the ways for europe to avoid any trace tyrants with us is for them to buy more us energy, more oil, more gas. so it's quite clear that he, he does intend, you know, giving of assistance to the energy hydrocarbon industry to continue developing. but at the same time, as i say the, the evidence has continues to manage and has mounted. and i don't think can be as obstructive to climate cooperation as he was before. but he clearly is not going to be a strong advocate either. it's it'll, it'll slow down to the us response, but having said that, the u. s. versus even the us response or the us a position with regard to climate change in the last several years has been very, very weak in the sense that you've had some very strong stipends of intent from the white house, but almost no follow through. because they have been able to either because of opposition and congress are or lack of, uh, ability to at least trump looks like he will be stronger. so even if he commits to

a smaller pass, it more likely will get done. then we've seen under the bite administration, so a bit of a contradiction. i know, but that's what i would expect and could be of there's a lot at stake for developing countries, especially small on nations. it's. it's a matter of survival. when we spoke about climate issues, right. the definitely the, the impact of climate change or by the last few. yes. in 2020 fall has been some really um, high concrete stuff felt uh you know what to do slot issues and defect if occasion . then even to blow the globe of the woman come consequences and competence of that . so we're likely to see more action, especially to qualify for gun countries, but some form of re re peroration on the platforms that out there, including the most trouble level for me to get into risk of climate change and not

impact that significantly operate and concrete. so in pretty 3 and the 5, the call for that is likely to increase where we see more african countries mentioned the case for some form of you know, report, regional support to, to meet to get their rates cut them, climate change. all right. i think we've got a about a minute left. so really high as we are saying, perhaps in some areas a withdrawal of, of interest from global powers. whether it's a multi lateral action on climate. it's on the, on the range of multilateral issues. whether it's the issue you mentioned the moments ago, but in the us interest, enough kind of stand the global interest that she mentioned in the show in sedan in that conflict, are we likely, is that going to increase the trend of local actors, local, and regional pals trying to feel the fact to what does that mean? does that mean creates a instability?

i think that's a great question and i think it really points to a something we haven't discussed so far, which is the rise of major pause because the world does not have any kind of type by polarity today. and there's a plenty of space there for other countries, plus global bar has been, you know, is disposing of, there's been a shift in the global better and so far. so we see emitter pause playing a much greater role in shaping global geo politics. countries like the key countries like so the rubia of south africa, many of those as well. i mean, i don't want to go through a list. and so yes, absolutely. i think the move america sort of draws it into in america 1st, which sort of in a way it leads to a kind of a big drawer from many areas of many reasons of the word. the more the opportunities from bigger pause to play a role, especially at the regional level. all right,

it's going to be interesting. no doubt, to watch way of 2025 goes. i think we can all agree on that. that's thank our guess for the comments on this show, many hello the could be a demo. i'm chris wafer and sign q 2 for watch day. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website. i'll just say we're a don't com. and for further discussion head over to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story can also join the conversation on x l handle is at a inside story from me, sam is a that and the whole team here for now is go by the, a wave of criminal violence has respect for the truck talk, tells, praising the challenging of forwards prison rights. for this, the assassination ecuador has plunged from one of the safest countries in latin

america to one of the most dangerous, with the government, declaring war on the guns and corruption people in power investigates with causes behind the search in violence. and it's devastating impact on the nation. ecuador, on the fire, on that jersey though. the latest news as it breaks people here, the queue is israel, of deliberately destroying every possible lifelines they have left with detailed coverage. these what your planes have targeted this pool which is chilled ranch thousands of housing is, will have been forcibly this place from the heart of the story is very systematic and deliberate. disruption of cost, as well, with the infrastructure has left more than 2000000 people in the face of commerce. going to struggle we know what's happening in our region. we know how to get to places that others can know. i want to hear god by that, put it on purpose half the time, and it to go live on the go live,

another story that may not be mainstream the, the way that you tell the story is what can make a difference the

the the floods over i'm in the works, we all just there in use on life. my headquarters here in the hall, coming up in the next 60 minutes. the drenched and desperate tell us the news of scrambling for food. while winter set sail across . garza displaced 10 times by his rightly folds as we see the conditions inside a crumb tense by one families be living full. so a man runs a pickup truck into the crowd in the us city of new orleans. feel as investigating as, as an act of terrorism. also the syrians using.