the sites are the same, so i'm at no control now if it's a sanction longer than 2 of us. and there's a conviction ask, but that's not right with detailed coverage, with energy infrastructure being the chief target to the extent of the damage has to be getting progressively worse from the house of the story. this road blocks me . i know for sure the boundaries that separates the concise extended bumper succeed in both poor people. on both sides, say crossing. it is extremely dangerous. the trouble, the comes to an end lives destroyed by was in sudan garza and ukraine regimes. somebody in consoling, ever go now gone. a dog from defies the quotes and critics to bring the us selection. so what lies in store for 2025. this is inside story. the

hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a them so 2024 comes to an end. but in so dan, gauze and ukraine to name a few places was grind on big political out people to serious asset gone. almost overnight shake high. cnn ousted off the weeks of protests in bangladesh. donald trump began the year in deep legal trouble, but survive not only the quotes but us knife is bullet 2. and he won the 2nd term as us president in africa difficult here for former revolutionary policies and government like the amc in south africa. so how well 2024 will be seen in history books and what lies in store in 2025. well let's get straight into it with 3 guests from different parts of the world. we have many hello, they call them is for dome and full of focused on the on boss of the to the united

states, the united kingdom. and the united nations. she joins us from islamabad. could be a, i the move, managing direct sir. it be can security and intelligence a political analysis consultancy. he joins us from a buddha and chris. we've a chief executive officer, the consultancy macro advisory. he joins us from london, a warm welcome to all if i could stop with it could be it's in a. bu just so. is it fair to say 2024? it's been a year of instability and unpredictability could be uh, yes, uh, to an extent as far as the african consent funds initiative consent, we could look at it from 3 major on those. the economy that has been largely on stable and on on sutton. we saw protests in different parts of the continent in kenya, in south africa in 90. the effect that they taught the politicos to ability in

those countries. however, we saw in gonna be transitioned that was largely a claim to successful. in spite of the very unsuccessful electro put out in countries like more than big and to an extended 902, i'm gonna prove to them slightly different. of course, climate change was also an area that affected several countries within the african continent. so under, oh, yes, 2024 was yeah, for lots fun event and that can be described definitely. and it's been, it's been a tough. yeah. and not just for africa. if we bring chris into this, have been a bit of unraveling in the middle east region to from gaza to syria. how we saying something, all of a re alignments, a recalculation in the balance of power. yeah, i think it's fair to look at it that way. at the end, perhaps, is to some extent links with the consequence of the continuing war in

york on the edge of europe in ukraine, russia, and also the, the return of trump. it seems as if there are a lot of kind of long standing uncertainties are issues that are now, or at least i've now been resolved, or at least there's an efforts to resolve them to bring them to do ahead. if you'd like, either trump is regardless, somebody to have could be unpredictable in the global stage, a disruptor for sure, in terms of, of trade and other political relations. and it seems as if there are a lot of kind of a people in our, in countries and different regions to see this as an opportunity to kind of deal with the unfinished business. you know, turkey a obviously was very instrumental in what happened in, in syria, you know, israel, of course, their date there that the start of the war a guys or what was from october of, of 23. so the before trump. but clearly nobody's returning. it will involved in

israel to continue and to perhaps expand deal with other longstanding kind of practices. they see other words, iran, but yeah, i think across the world we are seeing a lot of kind of very long standing situations being resolved or attempts to resolve them. and i think it is a goal to try and so it will continue in 2025 on the point that we have, we seen a lot of unfinished business, particularly in the middle east. that is going to carry over into 2024. i mean, israel has demonstrated an immense destructive capacity. it stands accused of genocide, but there's a lot of unfinished business when it comes to protecting its or securing its southern border, securing its northern border, securing its shipping ability. it's the terran capability from a ron. what we've seen that on the mind,

and of course we have to mention the palestinians, remain under occupation. and according to what 36 you and expos described on november, the 16th as a genocide in the making. that was november 16th 2023. all of that and. busy of unfinished business. let me just say a few words about the global global environment. i think the world today seems more unstable and unpredictable than at any time since the end of the quarter. well, we see hyphen geopolitical tensions. we see of course, what you mentioned. war in the middle is war, continue in gaza award imposed by israel and the palestinian people in ukraine. and of course, uncertainties in the global risk environment order, which seemed to make the international outlook. a very troubled one for the year ahead of the global order itself. has been frequenting, and i think if you look at how the word has dealt with the ballast,

didn't issue the warrant garza, i think this has been a crisis of humanity and the world has let down the people of that. as time a, we have seen the un failing in its obligation and its duty of cost to you and is as strong in or as weak as its members state specially the major pos, the b 5 as they of course, the permanent 5 members of the security council, but in any case, what we have seen is that the security council completely paralyzed in the face. and is it many, how would you say it's precisely the position of some of those world powers in the conferenced in their positions on the conflict in ukraine versus that the conflict in gaza that has really highlighted that feeling of a discrepancy in double uh, double standards when it comes to rule of law or rules based older international law and human rights and so on. yes, absolutely. i think the duplicity,

the double speak and the double standards practiced by not just the major bonds, but essentially wisdom the boss. i think the failure of the united states to live up to its claims that it is the great defended and advocate of human rights and the word. i mean, we've seen that or criminal. uh not that it was news. well certainly wasn't breaking news, but it highlighted an underline the tragedy that these major pause, particularly wisdom pauses. a said just to refuse to act in the face of genocide gave is right, a blank check. and israel is continuing to so me m a and to create the kinds of conditions in the middle east, which would be very difficult to address down the door. i mean, you talked about on finished business, there's unfinished business everywhere. it seems. and i think the question that

with the president elect donald trump of it is 2nd to them with alicia. well, we're retired. p dude in global affairs is something that, you know, we are waiting in anticipation to see how that will play out. so all right, well we'll talk about more more of that in the mobile. uh, i'm keen to get, could be it back into the discussion. and will that sort of trend to the, the feeling could be, or all of a collapse in the international order or a crumbling at least, maybe collapses to big or would the crumbling of the international order as we knew it? for sure that's going to reverberate beyond the middle east. how is it being seen in africa and places which no doubt taking notice of what's going on? a, definitely a multi loc structurally the most we know it has provided blue, mainly because of the events that i've been described by my court, of course, and events in the middle list. the position, the,

the wall test taken to allow either way to continue or, you know, it's activity is and, and of course, expanding it to other parts of the middle lift. you'd have definitely affected this trend doesn't want to learn relatively much. we know it. but in all of that, the crew, even i fish and they live in the red fee and in some countries that is likely going to be embedded with trauma impala in the united states. and of course, the new position in that you will take will definitely have a heat on, on africa. the war and through done is also one of the forgotten was to, to, to speak. the attention and interest of most of the develop all has been on you ukraine with very little attention and so done. and so what's topic on concrete? the conclusion of this, in this a hell, the federal crisis that own going, the fact that countries that i've been taking a lot of the lessons that the countries are drawing from that lack of attention. so unfortunately, it looks like on the one hand,

its allowing the entrenchment don't put the code on democratic governance, which was the point that was going to make. and of course, the, the, the new due position and the way i see and it up to the allowing concrete blank for russia. and to, and extend to china to gain a foothold is that'd be the weight and several african countries. and one of the major concerns and trinity, trinity 5 would be the your point to call the pension that that would create the mall or a child finds itself ingrained in those concrete dom, all the western countries which feels uncomfortable. and so you may see every petition of the cycle that we saw during the cold war with the reference of it. and in parts of our free country between the 5. interesting, the more that those tensions rise globally. now the hospital, some molar, they impact all the areas around the globe. it's really interesting to pick it all apart and see how it's interlinked. chris, you, you mentioned iran does 2024 and with this scene set for a will between israel and iran. yes,

i think he's absolutely does. and the critical factor, excuse me, is the name of the world. and chris, i'm sorry to jump in, but when you go down to the a word or 2, but i know that that is a huge prognosis, isn't that? well, the days of this activity is something that the president trump wants to see happen, and that's why i think it is. it is a very high risk is we come in in, into the year at the, the, the return of him to the right us. uh, you know, obviously one of the immediate impacts of course, would be in the energy markets it ran despite sanctions, has been able to continue to exports significant amount of oil. mostly the china traders estimate that is about 1600000 barrels of oil a day, you know, for the last year. so if, if there was an attack on the iranian energy or our export infrastructure to see already they would be a spike on the oil prices as an immediate effect. but then, in a broader than that, of course, is if iran is attacked and tyranny would land the us for that. then whatever

restraints we now see from 2 rand with regard to its behavior in the middle east with hezbollah, or, you know, in other proximate least, or perhaps even in the broader region. those restraints would probably end and it would feel that it has nothing to lose. so i think it is partly to of course energy traders are looking at this very closely on a day by day basis. but i think the broader implications is that if a ryan is attacked heavily and decides that there's no point in the like the continuing its restrains, then we could have a much broader conflict across the whole region. so i think it is that that's for me is almost the most significant and most dangerous factor to look at as we come in to $25.00. let me just listening to chris is analysis that then we go to ask the question, then the central, i guess one of the central questions is donald trump does 2025 lead to a greater or less a chance of peace then with a donald trump in the white house,

you know, he's these, he's random or he's talked about ending forever, was ending the ukraine war. but you just listen to the analysis from, from many, not just chris who say when the, when it comes to around an israel, the world might be heading in a different direction. well look, we're looking at a president elect, who is a maturity of us and he has a personality that we all know is very unpredictable. he can shift costs suddenly a to everyone's surprise. but he's also a man known for his transaction approach. and he's somebody who is said throughout the election campaign that he wants to end wars not stopped. and he said he wants to end the water in ukraine. he said he'd ended in 24 hours if it was up to him. so let's see what he brings to the table. he will be said he wants to seize 5 and gaza . let's see if he can do that, although i think he will do that on is right. it's terms asked for it all night. i

disagree. i don't very much if america under trump will encourage is right to attack or on look it on has suffered a great set back from recent developments. we all know that the excess of resistance has been much we couldn't. and therefore, i think logic points to the united states wanting to have some kind of negotiations with the week a week or wrong. uh, but emily, have you gotten you listen to the statement? some is really officials. i seem to be drawing up the sort of rhetoric of calling this league really, ron, is it all at least possible they might drag us into something the us of might look that's, that's been the dream auction hasn't that? and i mean, they've been trying that for you because of perhaps even that more than a decade, but they haven't succeed attempted. so i, i don't know, i have my doubts and i think a dunning, to my own region, if i may, for

a minute. uh i think uh the in fact off. uh so i know uh us confrontation on my beach and uh, my country is located in south asia. i think we, we need to look at uh with the and how the stabilizing. that could be a, uh, full uh, box on india and the other country. is that going to utah? the issue already uh, south issues of a trouble region. uh, we see a box done and a furnace done. uh, you know, engaged to a still it is. uh, because of find a son continues to be a safe haven, a fucked interests that to take undertaker trustworthy to attacks against my country. then between docusign in india, i think the diplomatic impulse continues. so, you know, you've talked about the team of unfinished business, there's lots that's unfinished in south issue. we're ready to be addressed, or i'll come back to the point task point. i would say that as

a naperville figure on pocket sound to be very concerned about another conflict. just adjacent or you know, neighborhood in fact, all right, that you've made some important points. so no doubt would like to come back and told more about the sign though us angle. but before we do that, chris, briefly always seeing or the what we've seen, something all the change of changing of fortunes in 2024 when it comes to ukraine and russia, which we've mentioned a few times, is that find like they continue with the, with the rush and getting stronger on the battlefield. some areas that look that. yeah, look, i think of the face of it. obviously we can see from reports that russia is gaining on the battlefields, but it is facing more difficult economic conditions. and i actually am a lot more hopeful that we could at least get to the point of a ceasefire and the start of a piece process. obviously a very long piece of a process of relatively early in this year. the proxy of course it's because of

trump, but i think despite the kind of 30 strong statements that are come from care of and some moscow continuously like both when you look at both countries needs this war 2 ends degree ukraine is in a difficult position for reasons that we all know there's a lot of domestic kind of a growing domestic pressure also to find a way to end to war. but with, in russia, despite the staples from the kremlin, the economy is starting to suffer from particularly financial sector transactions. sanctions the difficulty in making payments and, and being paid for, for exports, that starting to have an impact and the other distortions in the economy. you know that because of the low unemployment and job big and cetera, these issues all need to be addressed. so it seems to me that both sides are waiting for a president elect trump, and these invoices retire generally catalog to come to both with

a mixture of threats and incentives to force boats to the table. and as one minister told me recently, he said he believes that both sides will go to the table were left in play, but with considerable relief. so i have, you mentioned you frets and incentives could be when it comes to china. us relations. does it look like 2025 is kicking off with a bigger prospect's of threats? and what does that mean for the wealth? a problem. all right here, we're harrington rhetoric from the president elect us president elect on the contact information of on some follow sanctions. then of course, china's position, and that too, is that similar. now what, what that would mean for the walls on the one hand would be challenges to some southern concrete, but an opportunity for those when new. my caps may open enough cause enough. rico, 6, several countries are looking at that warehouse that we play out,

i think would significantly depend on how it is to lead us to pay out. this was probably going to be a long treat. was it wherever it between them, but under will i see more opportunities then the challenge of done defend is present. smelly. has one of a that's common hallmarks, rise across many is not all of the reasons of the world has been a cost of living crisis. well, that's right, and i think if a president electronic actually goes ahead with the kind of data for increases that he's threatening or promising against china and of course, against other countries that have a trade surplus with the united states. then i think that's going to fuel a for the inflation across the word. i don't think that's going to ease the problems and the challenges to the global economy. but i also think that, you know, and we were talking about the us, china

a send off or confrontation. i also think that, you know, given again his transaction or attitude either we're going to see a real intensification of the trade war, the data floor that you were just mentioning. or we might just see president trump driving the kind of a grant bargain with the chinese government because of the chinese candid, don't want to fight. and trump is many times during the election camp. instead, he respects president shooting thing that he has a desire for a better relationship with china. so, so he's always seeing both sort of country trends as well. oh, country statements. but a businessman is likely to, i think, want to have some kind of a deal with china rather than an endless confrontation. so a little more optimistic on that front of a deal when we talk. so when we talk about deals for around the climate deal with

the trump administration coming back into power, we saw him take us out of the paris accord chris square. do you think 2025 is likely to see the world go on climate issues? well, i would expect a present electron to be maybe less and less opposition as to if you like or less obstructive to, to climate issues. this, the why don't we do stuff like that? and chris won't want signal because it have you seen the? because a lot has happened in the world of the last 4 years. the eighty's caberry a lot more of this damage that is being done because of climate change. we've had more v, like more of more evidence of the impact of board disasters. it's more difficult for, for people to deny the impact of climate change as a, since he was last president's. no, that's not to say he's going to suffer any sort of tiffany or transformation or whatever, as you say, he's already here these days is that he wants to us to continue to develop it's,

it's hydro carpenters orsis. he's already told europe that, you know, one of the ways for europe to avoid any trace tyrants with us is for them to buy more us energy, more oil, more gas. so it's quite clear that he does intend, you know, giving of assistance to the energy hydrocarbon industry to continue developing. but at the same time, as i say the, the evidence has continues to manage and has mounted. and i don't think you'd be as obstructive to climate cooperation as he was before, but he clearly is not going to be a strong advocate either. it's it'll, it'll slow down the us response. but having said that, the us versus the, or the us response or the us a position with regard to climate change in the last several years has been very, very weak in the sense that you've had been very strong statements of intent from

the white house. but almost no follow through because they have been able to either because of opposition and congress are, or lack of, uh, ability to at least trump looks like he will be stronger. so even if he commits to a smaller pass, it's more likely we'll get done. then we've seen under the bikes administration, so a bit of a contradiction. i know, but that's what i would expect. and could be a, there's a lot at stake for developing countries, especially small. i'm nations it's, it's a matter of survival. when we talk about climate issues, right, that definitely the the impact of climate change or by the lot view. yes. in 2024 has been some really um high countries of felt uh you know what to do slot issues and defect if occasion. then even to load the blue out of the woman come consequences and competence of that. so we're likely to see more action, especially to qualify for gun countries, but some form of re re probation on the platforms that out there,

including the most trouble level for me to get into risk of climate change and not impact that significantly operate on concrete. so in pretty drain to 5, the call for that is likely to increase where we see more african countries mentioned the case for some form of diary provisional support to to meet to get their rates cut them climate change. all right, i think we've got a about a minute left. so really high as we're saying, perhaps in some areas a withdrawal of, of interest from global powers. whether it's a multilateral action on climate, it's on the, on the range of multilateral issues, whether it's vis you, you mentioned the moments ago, but the us interest enough kind of stats, the global interest that she mentioned in the show in sedan, in that conflict are we likely, is that going to increase the trend of local exes, local and regional powers?

trying to fill the vacuum? what does that mean? does that mean creates a instability? i think that's a great question and i think it really points to a something we haven't discussed. so far, which is the rise of major pause because the world does not have any kind of type by formality today. and there's a plenty of space there for other countries. plus global bar has been, you know, is disposing. there's been a shift in the global better and so far. so we see emitter pause playing a much greater role in shaping global geo politics. countries like turkey, countries like so the rubia of south africa. many of those as well. i mean, i don't want to go through a list. and so yes, absolutely. i think the move uh america sort of, it draws it into an america 1st, which sort of, in a way it leads to a kind of a big drawer from many areas of many reasons of the word. the more the

opportunities from bigger pause to play a role, especially at the regional level. all right, it's going to be interesting. no doubt, to watch way. 2025 goes. i think we can all agree on that. that's thank our guess for the comments on this show, many hello the could be a demo. i'm chris wafer and sign q 2 for watch day. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website. i'll just say we're a don't come in for further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story can also join the conversation on x. l handle is at a inside story from me, sam is a that and the whole team here for now is go by the as israel's war on gaza continues the new series takes you beyond the headlines of

the country. turn me fatima. but in conversation with the range of gas as we connect the adults and reveal its impact on the palestinian people by response to f, pete phase of intimidation is doing more. i will not stop until the system of oppression is dispense of entire refrain coming soon on the 0. the important thing if you're walking around and they route was not in the line of fire from the holiday fall off. we heard gunshots. i was the 1st one to feed the whole thing back to last. it's 3 days and 3 nights and the one know prisoners in control. and you control the region around and that's why it was such a lot. an icon is the conflict at the heart of the lebanese civil will be rude holiday inn hotels on al jazeera, the latest news, as it breaks. people here in the queue is israel,

of deliberately destroying every possible lifelines they have left with detailed coverage. these what your planes have targeted this pool which is chilled ranch thousands of housing is, will have been forcibly displaced from the house of the story is very systematic and deliberate. destruction of goes with the infrastructure has left more than 2000000 people in the face of commerce can struggle. i read one of the worlds wherever screeching numbers are plummeting due to deforestation. culture and climate change. indian signs are fighting to protect. one of the most important things to come to the species is coming during the habitat 101 east reveals the bottle to save into use with. oh no, just examine the feedback. just today's headlines. no foreign power liberated the syrians and it's in syrians hands to determine how the future looks like setting agend for tomorrow's discussions. if you all people from across the world can

collaborate, why can't our world leaders international filmmakers and world class journalists bring programs to inform names? fine to many to justin pratt and much is it this should be on the agenda. phone outages, era the, [000:00:00;00] the hello i'm how much room this is the news our live from. don't have coming up in the next 60 minutes. the drenched and desperate palestinians are scrambling for food. all winter sits in a cross gauze displaced 10 times by his really forces. we see the conditions inside