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hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a them. so 2024 comes to an end. but in so dan, gauze and ukraine to name a few places was grind on big political out people to serious asset gone almost overnight shift. hi, sienna ousted off the weeks of protests in bangladesh. donald trump began the year in deep legal trouble, but survive not only the quotes, but us knife is bullet to. and he won the 2nd term as us president in africa difficult here for former revolutionary policies and government like the amc in south africa. so how well 2024 will be seen in history books and what lies in store in 2025. well, let's get straight into it with 3 guests from different parts of the world. we have many hello, they call them is for them and full of focused on the on boss of the to the united

states, the united kingdom. and the united nations. she joins us from islamabad. could be a of the move, managing direct sir. it be can security and intelligence a political analysis consultancy. he joins us from a boot. you and chris, we've a chief executive officer, the consultancy macro advisory. he joins us from london, a warm welcome to all if i could stop with it, kept bits in a. bu just so. is it fair to say 2024. its been a year of instability and unpredictability could be uh, yes, uh, to our next and uh, as far as the african concession funds initiative consent, we could look at it from the major on those. the economy. uh, that has been largely on stable and on on sutton. we saw a protest in different parts of the continent in kenya, in south africa in nigeria. the effect that they taught the politicos to ability in

those countries. however, we saw in gonna be transitioned that was largely a claim to successful in spite of the very unsuccessful electro put out in countries like more than big on to an extended 902, i'm gonna prove to them slightly different. of course climate change was also an area that affected several countries within the african continent. so under, oh, yes, 2024 was yeah, for lots of event and that can be described definitely. and it's been, it's been a tough. yeah. and not just for africa, if we bring chris into this, have been a bit of unraveling in the middle east region to from gaza to syria. how we saying something, all of a re alignments, a recalculation in the balance of power. yeah, i think it's fair to look at it that way and, and perhaps is to some extent links with the consequence of the continuing war in york on the edge of europe in ukraine, russia. and also the,

the return of trump. it seems as if there are a lot of kind of long standing uncertainties are, are issues that are now, or at least i've now been resolved, or at least there's an efforts to resolve them to bring them to do ahead. if you'd like, either trump is, is, is regarded as somebody to have could be unpredictable in the global stage, a disruptor for sure, in terms of, of trade and other political relations. and it seems as if there are a lot of kind of a people in our, in countries and different regions to see this as an opportunity to kind of deal with the unfinished business. you know, turkey a obviously was very instrumental in what happened in, in syria. you know, israel, of course, there that there does start with the war a guys, uh, what was from october of, of 23. so the before trump. but clearly nobody's returning. it will involved in

israel to continue and to perhaps expand deal with other longstanding kind of practices they see. so the words a ran, but yeah, i think across the world we are seeing a lot of kind of very long standing situations being resolved or attempts to resolve them. and i think it is a goal to try and so it will continue in 2025 on that point, lee, have we seen a lot of unfinished business, particularly in the middle east. that is going to carry over into 2024. i mean, israel has demonstrated an immense destructive capacity. it stands accused of genocide, but there's a lot of unfinished business when it comes to protecting, it's all securing its southern border, securing its northern border, securing its shipping ability. it's the terran capability from a ron where we've seen that on the mind. and of course we have to mention the

palestinians, remain under occupation. and according to what 36 you and expos described on november, the 16th as a genocide in the making that was november 16th 2023. all of that. and. busy of unfinished business. let me just say a few words about the global global environment. i think the world today seems more unstable and unpredictable than at any time since the end of the quarter. well, we see hyphen geopolitical tensions. we see of course, what you mentioned. war in the middle east war continue in gaza award, imposed by israel and the palestinian people in ukraine. and of course, uncertainties in the global risk environment order which you seem to make the international outlook. a very troubled one for the year ahead of the global florida . itself has been frequenting, and i think if you look at how the word has dealt with the ballast didn't issue the

warrant garza, i think this has been a crisis of humanity and the world has let down the people of that is times a we have seen the un failing in its obligation and its duty of cost to you and is as strong in or as weak as its members state, especially the major boss of the b 5 as they of course, the permanent 5 members of the security council. but in any case, what we have seen is that the security council completely paralyzed in the face. and these are many, how would you say it's precisely the position of some of those world powers in the conferenced in their positions on the conflict in ukraine versus that the conflict in gaza that has really highlighted that feeling of a discrepancy in double uh, double standards when it comes to rule of law or rules based older international law and human rights and so on. yes, absolutely. i think the duplicity,

the double speak and the double standards practiced by not just the major bonds, but essentially wisdom the boss. i think the failure of the united states to live up to its claims that it is the great defended and advocate of human rights and the word. i mean, we seen that or criminal not that it was news. so certainly wasn't breaking news, but it highlighted an underline the tragedy that these major pause, particularly wisdom pauses, said, just to refuse to act in the face of genocide game is right, a blank check. and israel is continuing to so me m a and to create the kind of conditions in the middle east, which would be very difficult to address down the road. i mean, you talked about on finished business, there's unfinished business everywhere. it seems. and i think the question that

with the president elect, donald trump, it is 2nd to them with alicia will be here in global affairs. is something that uh, you know, we are waiting in anticipation to see how that would play out. so i was told also about more more of that in the mobile. uh, i'm keen to get, could be it back into the discussion. and will that sort of trend to the, the feeling could be, or all of a collapse in the international order, or a crumbling at least, maybe collapses to big or would, but a crumbling of the international order, as we knew it, for sure that's going to reverberate beyond the middle east, how is it being seen in africa and places which no doubt taking notice of what's going on? definitely a multi loc structurally. they must, we know it has subsided blue, mainly because of the events that i've been described by my code of costs and events in the middle list position the,

the wall tests taken to allowing users to continue, you know, it's activity and, and of course, expanding it to other parts of the middle lift you'd have definitely affect it. does training doesn't want to lower or olive, you must, we know it. but in all of that, the craving i solution, they live in the red fee, and in some countries that is likely going to be embedded with strong been power in the united states. and of course, the new position in the euro will take will definitely have a heat on, on africa, the war institute on he's also one of the forgotten was to, to, to speak. and the attention and interest of most of the develop all has been on the ukraine with very little attention in institute on and so i'm with dr. gun concrete, the cooking shows of this in just the hell, the federal crisis that own going. the fact that countries that i've been taking a lot of the lessons that countries are drawing from that lack of attention. um, so unfortunately, it looks like on the one hand,

its allowing the entrenchment don't put the code on democratic governance. we to have the point that was going to make, and of course, the, the, the new do position and though is eating it up if allowing concrete blank for russia. and to, and extend china to gain a foothold is that'd be the weight and several african countries. and one of the major concerns in 2025 would be the your point to call the pension that would create the mall, or a child finds itself ingrained in those concrete dom all the western countries which feels uncomfortable. and so you may see every petition of the cycle that we saw during the cold war with the reference of it. and in parts of a free country between the 5. interesting, the more that those tensions rise globally. now the hospital, some molar, they impact all the areas around the globe. it's really interesting to pick it all apart and see how it's interlinked. chris, you, you mentioned iran does 2024 and with this scene set for a will between israel and iran. yes,

i think he's absolutely does. and the critical factor, excuse me, is always on leave of the world. and chris, i'm sorry to jump in, but when you go down to that a word or 2, but i know that that is a huge prognosis, isn't it? well, the days of this activity is something that the president trump wants to see happen, and that's why i think it is. it is a very high risk is we come in in, into the year at the, the, the return of him to the right us. uh, you know, obviously one of the immediate impacts of course, would be in the energy markets it ran despite sanctions, has been able to continue to exports significant amount of oil. mostly the china traders estimate that is about 1600000 barrels of oil a day. um you know, for the last year. so if, if there was an attack on the iranian energy or our export infrastructure, then see already they would be a spike on the oil prices as an immediate effect. but then you'd, a broader than that, of course, is if iran is attacked and tyranny would land the us for that. then whatever

restraints we now see from 2 rand with regard to its behavior in the middle east with hezbollah, or, you know, in other proximate least, or perhaps even in the broader region. those restraints would probably end and it would feel that it has nothing to lose. so i think it is partly to of course energy traders are looking at this very closely on a day by day basis. but i think the broader implications is that if a ryan is attacked heavily and decides that there's no point in the like the continuing its restrains, then we could have a much broader conflict across the whole region. so i think it is that that's for me is almost the most significant and most dangerous factor to look at as we come in to $25.00. let me just listening to chris is analysis that then we go to ask the question, then the central, i guess one of the central questions is donald trump does 2025 lead to a greater or less a chance of peace then with a donald trump in the white house,

you know, he's these, he's random or he's talked about ending forever, was ending the ukraine war. but you just listen to the analysis from, from many, not just chris who say of the when it comes to around in israel. the world might be heading in a different direction. but look, we're looking at a president elect, who is a material person. he has a personality that we all know is very unpredictable. he can shift costs suddenly a to everyone's surprise. but he's also a man known for his transaction approach. and he's somebody who is said throughout the election campaign that he wants to end wars. not stopped at. uh, he said he wants to end the water ukraine. he said he'd ended in 24 hours. if it was up to him, so let's see what he brings to the table. he will be said he wants to seize 5 and goes up. let's see if he can do that, although i think he will do that on is right,

it's terms ashville air on. i, i disagree. i don't very much. if america under trump will encourage is right to attack or on look it on has suffered a great set back from recent developments. we all know that the excess of resistance has been much we couldn't. and therefore, i think logic points to the united states wanting to have some kind of negotiations with the week a week or wrong. uh, but emily, have you gotten you listen to the statement? some is really officials. i seem to be drawing up the sort of rhetoric of calling this league really, ron, is it all at least possible they might drag us into something the us of might look that's, that's been the dream option, hasn't that? and i mean, they've been trying that for you because of perhaps even that more than a decade. but they haven't succeeded have that. so i, i don't know, i have my doubts, and i think a dunning, to my own region, if i may, for

a minute. uh i think uh the in fact off. uh so i know uh us confrontation on my beach and uh, my country is located in south asia. i think we, we need to look at uh with the and how the stabilizing. that could be a, uh, full uh, box on india and the other country. is that going to utah? the issue already uh, south issues of a trouble region. uh, we see a box done and a furnace done. uh, you know, engaged to a still it is. uh, because of find a son continues to be a safe haven, a fucked interests that to take undertaker trustworthy to attacks against my country. then between docusign in india, i think the diplomatic impulse continues. so, you know, you've talked about the team of unfinished business, there's lots that's unfinished in south issue. we're ready to be addressed, or i'll come back to the point task point. i would say that as

a naperville figure on pocket sound would be very concerned about another conflict . just adjacent or you know, neighborhood. in fact, all right, that you've made some important points. so no doubt would like to come back and told more about the sign the us angle. but before we do that, chris, briefly always seeing or the well of we've seen something of a change of changing of fortunes in 2024 when it comes to ukraine. and russia, which we've mentioned a few times, is that find like they continue with the, with the rush and getting stronger on the battlefield. some areas that looked at it . yeah, look, i think of the face of it. obviously, we can see from reports that russia is gaining on the battlefields, but it is facing more difficult economic conditions. and i actually am a lot more hopeful that we could at least get to the point of a ceasefire and the start of a piece process. obviously, a very long piece of a process of relatively early in this year. the proxy of course,

it's because of trump. but i think despite the kind of 30 strong statements that are come from care of and some moscow continuously, both when you look at both countries needs this war to ends to ukraine is in a difficult position for reasons that we all know there's a lot of domestic kind of a growing domestic pressure also to find a way to end to war. but with, in russia, despite the staples, from the kremlin, the economy is starting to suffer from particularly financial sector transactions. sanctions the difficulty in making payments and, and being paid for, for exports, that starting to have an impact and deal with the distortions in the economy. you know that because of the low unemployment and job big and cetera, these issues all need to be addressed. so it seems to me that both sides are waiting for a president elect trump, and these invoices retire generally catalog to come to both with

a mixture of threats and incentives to force boats to the table. and as one minister told me recently, he said he believes that both sides would go to the table were left in play, but with considerable relief. so i have you mention your threats and incentives could be when it comes to china. us relations. does it look like 2025 is kicking off with a bigger prospect's of threats and what does that mean for the wealth as well? um all righty. uh, we went ahead reading rhetoric from the president elect us president elect on the contact information of on some follow sanctions. then of course, china has a position on that too if they've similar. now what, what that would mean for the walls on the one hand would be challenges to some sutton concrete but an opportunity for those when new my caps may open enough cause enough. rico. 6, several countries are looking at that warehouse that we play out. i think would

significantly depend on how it is to lead us to pay out. this part was probably going to be a long treat. was it wherever it between them, but under will i see more opportunities then the challenge of done that then is present. smelly. has one of a that's common hallmarks, rise across many is not all of the reasons of the world has been a cost of living crisis. well, that's right. and i think if a president electronic actually goes ahead with the kind of data for increases that he's threatening or promising against china. and of course, against other countries that have a trade surplus with the united states. then i think that's going to fuel a for the inflation across the word. i don't think that's going to ease the problems and the challenges to the global economy. but i also think that, you know, and we were talking about the us, china, a send off

a confrontation. i also think that, you know, given again his transaction or attitude either we're going to see a real intensification of the trade for the data floor that you were just mentioning. or we might just see president trump driving the kind of a grant bargain with the chinese government, because the chinese candid don't want to fight and trump is many times during the election camp. instead, he respects president shooting thing that he has a desire for a bit of relationship with china. so, so he's always seeing both sort of country trends as well. oh, country statements. but a businessman is likely to, i think, want to have some kind of a deal with china rather than an endless confrontation. so a little more optimistic on that front of a deal when we talk. so when we talk about deals for around the climate deal with

the trump administration coming back into power, we saw him take us out of the paris accord chris square. do you think 2025 is likely to see the world going climate issues? well, i would expect a present electron to be maybe less and less opposition as to if you like or less obstructive to, to climate issues. this, the why don't do stuff like that and chris won't want signals, does it? have you seen the? because a lot has happened in the world as of the last 4 years. the eighty's caberry a lot more of this damage that has been done because of climate change. we've had more v like more of more evidence of the impact of or disasters. it's more difficult for, for people to deny the impact of climate change as a, since he was last president's. now that's not to say he's going to suffer any sort of tiffany or transformation or whatever, as you say, he's already been here these days is that he wants to us to continue to develop

it's, it's hydro carpenters are says he's already told europe that you know one of the ways for europe to avoid any trace tires with us is for them to buy more us energy, more oil, more gas. so it's quite clear to that he, he does intend, you know, giving of assistance to the energy hydrocarbon industry to continue developing. but at the same time, as i say the, the evidence has continues to manage and has mounted. and i don't think you'd be as obstructive to climate cooperation as he was before. but he clearly is not going to be a strong advocate either. it's it'll, it'll slow down to the us response. but having said that, the us versus the, the us response or the us a position with regard to climate change in the last several years has been very, very weak in the sense that you've had been very strong statements of intent from

the white house, but almost no follow through because they have been able to do because of opposition and congress are or lack of, uh, ability to at least trump looks like he will be stronger. so even if he commits to a smaller pass, a more likely will get done. then we've seen under the bite administration, so a bit of a contradiction. i know, but that's what i would expect and could be of there's a lot at stake for developing countries, especially small on nations. it's. it's a matter of survival when we hold about climate issues, right. the definitely the, the impact of climate change you by the last few. yes. in 2020 fall has been some really um, high concrete stuff felt. uh, you know, what did it slot issues and defective vacation? then you're going to blow the globe of the woman, consequence and competence of that. so we're likely to see more action, especially to qualify for gun countries, but some form of re re peroration on the bottom. the phones that out there,

including the most trouble level for me to get into risk of climate change have not impacted significantly operating on concrete. so in pretty 25 to call what that is likely to increase, where we see more african countries mentioned the case for some form of u dot report regional support to meet to get their rates cut them climate change. all right, i think we've got a about a minute left. so really high as we are saying, perhaps in some areas a withdrawal of, of interest from global powers. whether it's a multi lateral action on climate. it's on the, on the range of multilateral issues. whether it's vis you, you mentioned the moments ago, but in the us interest enough kind of stats, the global interest that she mentioned in the show in sedan in that conflict, are we likely, is that going to increase the trend of local exes,

local and regional powers trying to fill the vacuum. what does that mean? does that mean creates a instability? i think that's a great question and i think it really points to a something we haven't discussed so far, which is the rise of major pause because the word does not have any kind of type by polarity today. and there's a plenty of space there for other countries, plus global bar has been, you know, is disposing of, there's been a shift in the global balance of file. so we see emitter pause playing a much greater role in shaping global geo politics. countries like turkey, countries like so, the rubia of south africa, many of those as well. i mean, i don't want to go through a list. and so yes, absolutely. i think the move america sort of, it draws it into in america 1st, which sort of in a way it leads to a kind of a big drawer from many areas. are many reasons of the word,

the more the opportunities from bigger pause to play a role, especially at the regional level. right. it's going to be interesting no doubt, to watch way. 2025 goes. i think we can all agree on that. that's thank our guess for the comments on this show, many hello the could be a demo. i'm chris wafer and sign q 2 for what day you can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. i'll just say we're a don't com funds for further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story can also join the conversation on x l handle is at a inside story from me, sam is a that and the whole team here for now is go by the a wave of criminal violence has a respect for the drug talk tells brazen challenging authorities,

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