doing the combination of violent wars and the heavy rain creating a respiratory for more suffering for palestinians asking questions. what are the challenges in helping girls that are seeing this within these conflict we're posing for the extra really, really big. we've seen this done this in an in depth coverage. i'll just say it was teens on the ground. when you, closer to the heart of the story, a trouble. the comes to an end lives destroyed by was in sudan garza and ukraine regimes. somebody in consoling, ever go now gone. a dog from defies the quotes and critics to win the us selection . so what lies in store for 2025. this is inside story. the

hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a them so 2024 comes to an end. but in so dan, gauze and ukraine to name a few places was grind on big political out people to serious asset gone. almost overnight shake has seen that ousted off the weeks of protests in bangladesh . donald trump began the year in deep legal trouble, but survive not only the quotes, but us knife is bullet to. and he won the 2nd term as us president in africa difficult year for former revolutionary policies in government like the amc in south africa. so how well 2024 will be seen in history books and what lies in store and twenty's 25. well, let's get straight into it with 3 guests from different parts of the world. we have

many hello, they a columbus for durham, and former pa, kasanya and boss of the to the united states, the united kingdom and the united nations. she joins us from islam about to be a i the move, managing direct, sir. it be can security and intelligence a political analysis consultancy. he joins us from a buddha. i'm chris, we've a chief executive officer, the consultant see macro advisory. he joins us from london, a warm welcome to old. if i could stop with it, could be it's in a bu just so. is it fair to say 2024? it's been a year of instability and unpredictability. could be a uh yes, the, to a next and a far the african consent funds initiative consent. we could look at it from 3 major on those. the economy that has been largely on stable and on on sutton. we saw protests in different parts of the continent in kenya,

in south africa in 90. the effect that they taught the politicos to ability in those countries. however, we saw in gonna the transition that was largely a claim to successful. in spite of the very unsuccessful electro put out in countries like more than big and to an extended 902, and gonna prove to them slightly different. of course, climate change was also an area that affected several countries within the african continent. so under poll, yes, 2024 was yeah, for lots of events. and that can be described definitely. and it's been, it's been a tough. yeah. and not just for africa. if we bring chris into this, been the a bit of unraveling in the middle east region to from gaza to. busy how we saying something, all of a re alignment's, a recalculation and the balance of power. yeah, i think it's fair to look at it that way and, and perhaps it is to some extent links with the consequence of the continuing

war in europe on the edge of europe and ukraine, russia and also the, the return of trump. it seems as if there are a lot of kind of long standing on certainties are, are issues that are now at least i've now been resolved, or at least there's an efforts to resolve them to bring them to do ahead. if you'd like, either trump is regardless, somebody just could be unpredictable in the global stage, a disruptor for sure, in terms of, of trade and other political relations. and it seems as if there are a lot of kind of a people in our, in countries in different regions to see this as an opportunity to kind of do it on finished business. you know, turkey a obviously was very instrumental in what happened in, in syria, you know, israel, of course, there that there, that the start of the war a guys or what was from october of, of 23. so the before trump,

but clearly nobody's returning. it will indulge in israel to continue and to perhaps expand deal with other longstanding kinda stresses they see the other words a ran. but yeah, i think across the was we are seeing a lot of kind of very long standing situations being resolved or attempts to resolve them. and i think it is a goal to try and so it will continue in 2025 on that point melisha, have we seen a lot of unfinished business, particularly in the middle east. that is going to carry over into 2024. i mean, israel has demonstrated an immense destructive capacity. it stands accused of genocide, but there's a lot of unfinished business when it comes to protecting, it's all securing its southern board of securing its northern border, securing its shipping ability. it's the terran capability from

a ron where we've seen that on the mind. and of course we have to mention the palestinians, remain under occupation. and according to what 36 you and expos described on november, the 16th as a genocide in the making that was november 16th 2023. all of that. and. busy of unfinished business. let me 1st say a few words about the overall global environment. i think the world today seems more unstable and unpredictable than at any time since the end of the quarter. well, we see hyphen geopolitical tensions. we see of course, what you mentioned. war in the middle is war, continue in gaza award imposed by israel and the palestinian people in ukraine. and of course, uncertainties in the global risk environment order, which seemed to make the international outlook. a very troubled one for the year ahead of the globe and order itself has been frequenting. and i think if you look

at how the word has dealt with the ballast didn't issue the warrant garza, i think this has been a crisis of humanity and the world has let down the people up. at this time, we have seen the un failing in its obligation and its duty of course to you and is as strong in or as weak as its members state specially the major pos, the b 5. as they accord the permanent 5 members of the security council, but in any case, what we have seen is that the security council completely paralyzed in the face. and is it many, how would you say it's precisely the position of some of those? will pallas in the conferenced in their positions on the conflict in ukraine versus that the conflict in gaza that has really highlighted that feeling of a discrepancy in double uh, double standards when it comes to rule of law or rules based older international

law and human rights and so, yes, absolutely. i think the duplicity, the double speak and the double standards practiced by not just the major bonds, but essentially wisdom the boss. i think the failure of the united states to live up to its claims that it is the great defended and advocate of human rights and the word. i mean, we see that a more criminal not that it was news. so certainly wasn't breaking news, but it highlighted an underline the tragedy that these major pause, particularly the wisdom pauses a said, just to refuse to act in the face of genocide game is right, a blank check. and israel is continuing to. so ma'am, and to create the kind of conditions in the middle east, which would be very difficult to address down the road. i mean, you talked about on finished business,

this unfinished business everywhere. it seems. and i think the question that with the president elect donald trump is 2nd to them with alicia will work to be did in global affairs is something that you know, we are waiting and that is a big to see how that would play out. so i was told also about more more of that in the mobile. i'm keen to get could be it back into the discussion and will that sort of trend the, the feeling could be, or all of a collapse in the international order or a crumbling at least, maybe collapses to big or would, but a crumbling of the international order as we knew it, for sure that's going to reverberate beyond the middle east. how is it being seen in africa and places which no doubt taking note of what's going on? a definitely a multi lot flood trailer, they must, we know it has subsided blue, mainly because of the events that i've been described by my code of costs and

events in the middle list position the, the wall tests taken to allowing users to continue. you know, it's activity if and, and of course, expanding it to other parts of the middle lift. you'd have definitely affected this trend of the month to lower the reality must, we know it. but in all of that, the increasing efficiency nearly been the red fee and in some countries that is likely going to be embedded with strong been power in the united states. and of course, the new position in the euro will take will definitely have a heat on, on africa, the war and through done, he's also one of the forgotten was to, to, to speak. the attention and interest of most of the develop all has been on you ukraine with very little attention in institute on and so i'm with dr. gun concrete, the cooking shows of this in this a hell the throughout christ. is that ongoing? the fact that countries that i've been taking a lot of the lessons that countries are drawing from that lack of attention. um,

so unfortunately, it looks like on the one hand, its allowing the entrenchment of, quote, unquote, on democratic governance. we to, at the point that was going to make, and of course, the, the, the new jewel position in dealt with the unit of developing countries like russia. and to an extent, china, to gain a foothold is that the weight in several african countries on one of the major concerns and trinity, trinity 5 would be the your point to call attention that were to create the mall, or a child finds itself in grand and those concrete dom, all the western countries would feel uncomfortable. and so you may see every petition of the cycle that we saw during the cold war with the reference of it. and, and parts of a free country between the 5. interesting, the more that those tensions rise globally. now the hot spots and most of the impact of the areas around the globe is very interesting to pick it up with a pot and see how it's interlinked. chris, you, you mentioned iran does 2024. and with this scene set for

a will between israel and iran. yes, i think he's absolutely does. and the critical factor, excuse me, is the name of the well then chris, i'm sorry to jump in by the way you go down to the a word or 2, but i know that that is a huge prognosis, isn't that? well, the days of this activity is something that the president trump wants to see happen, and that's why i think it is. it is a very high risk is we come in in, into the year at the, the, the return of him to the white us. uh, you know, obviously one of the immediate impacts of course, would be in double energy markets. it ran despite sanctions, has been able to continue to export significant amount of oil, mostly to china. traders estimate that is about 1600000 barrels of oil a day, you know, for the last year. so if, if there was an attack on the iranian energy or our export infrastructure to tyranny, they would be a spike on the oil prices as an immediate effect. but then in a broader than that,

of course is if iran is attacked and killed, he would land the us for that. then whatever restraints we now see from to around with regard to its behavior in the middle east with hezbollah, or you know, in other parts of the middle east, or perhaps even in the broader region. those restraints would probably end and it would feel that it has nothing to lose. so i think it is partly you of course, energy traders are looking at this very closely on a day by day basis. but i think the broader implications is that if a ryan is attacked heavily and decides that there's no point in the like the continuing it's restraints, then we could have a much broader conflict across the whole regions. so i think it is that that's for me is almost the most significant and most dangerous factor to look at as we come in to $25.00. let me just listening to chris is analysis. then we go to ask the question, then the central, i guess one of the central questions is donald trump does 2025 lead to

a greater or less a chance of peace then with a donald trump in the white house, you know, he's these, he's random or he's talked about ending forever, was ending the ukraine war. but you just listen to the analysis from, from many, not just chris who say so that when it comes to around an, as well, the world might be heading in a different direction. but look, we're looking at a president elect, who is a maturity of us and he has a personality that we all know is very unpredictable. he can shift costs suddenly a to everyone's surprise. but he's also a man known for his transaction approach. and he's somebody who is said throughout the election campaign, but he wants to end wars not stopped. and he said he wants to end the water ukraine . he said he'd ended in 24 hours if it was up to him. so let's see what he brings to the table. he will be said he wants to cease fire and goes up. let's see if you

can do that, although i think he will do that on is right. it's terms ask for it all night. i disagree. i don't very much. if america under come we encourage is right to attack or on look it on has suffered a great set back from recent developments. we all know that the excess of resistance has been much we couldn't. and therefore, i think logic points to the united states wanting to have some kind of negotiations with the week a week, a iran environmentally have you got, do you listen to the statement? some is writing officials. i seem to be drawing up the sort of rhetoric of conflict with the ron. is it all at least possible they might drag us into something the rest of might look that's, that's been the dream option, hasn't that? and i mean, they've been trying that for you those uh perhaps even that more than a decade, but they haven't succeed attempted. so i, i don't know,

i have my doubts and i think a dunning, to my own region. if i may, for a minute, i think of the in fact off up. so i know us confrontation on my region. my country is located in south asia. i think we, we need to look at with the, and how the stabilizing that could be is full of buckets on india and the other countries that constitute saltisha, already assault issues of a trouble region. we see a buckets done and the finest on, you know, engaged to a still of these because of find a son continues to be a safe haven of fucked interests that to take undertaker trustworthy to attacks against my country. then between docusign and india, i think the diplomatic in boss continues. so, you know, you've talked about the team of unfinished business, there's lots that's unfinished in south issue. we're ready to be addressed,

or i'll come back to the point past point. i would say that as a neighbor of 8 or on pocket, so i'm going to be very concerned about another conflict just adjacent or non neighborhood. in fact. all right, that you've made some important points. so no doubt would like to come back and talk more about the sign though us angle. but before we do that, chris, briefly always seeing in the us, we've seen something of a change of changing of full tunes in 2024 when it comes to ukraine. and russia, which we've mentioned a few times, is that find like they continue with the, with the rush and getting stronger on the battlefield. some areas that look that. yeah, look, i think of the face of it. obviously, we can see from reports that russia is gaining on the battlefields, but it is facing more difficult economic conditions. and i actually am a lot more hopeful that we could at least get to the point of a ceasefire. and the start of a piece process is obviously a very long piece of

a process of relatively early in this year. it's a proxy of course it's because of trump. but i think despite the kind of very strong statements that are come from care of and some moscow continuously, both when you look at both countries needs this war 2 ends dirty ukraine is in a difficult position for reasons that we all know there's a lot of domestic kind of a growing domestic pressure also to find a way to end to war. but with, in russia, despite the staples, from the kremlin, the economy is starting to suffer from particularly financial sector transactions. sanctions the difficulty in making payments and, and being paid for, for exports, that starting to have an impact and the other distortions in the economy. you know, that because of the law of employment and job back and cetera, these issues all need to be addressed. so it seems to me that both sides are waiting for a president, elect trump on these invoices to retire generally kellogg,

to come to both with a mixture of threats and incentives to force boats to the table. and as one minister told me recently, he said he believes that both sides will go to the table were left in play, but with considerable relief. so i have, you mentioned you threats and incentives could be when it comes to china. us relations. does it look like 2025 is kicking off with a bigger prospect's of threats and what does that mean for the welf as well? um all righty. uh, we will harring rhetoric from the president elect us president elect on the contact information of on some follow sanctions. then of course, china's position on that too. is it similar? now what, what that would mean for the walls on the one hand would be challenges to some sutton countries, but an opportunity for those when new my caps may open enough cause enough. rico 6,

several countries are looking at that. and how to actually play out. i think would significantly depend on how it is to lead us to pay out this for what probably going to be a long treat. was it wherever it between them, but under will i see more opportunities then the challenge is done. defend is present. smelly. has the one as a that's common, the hallmarks rise across many is not all of the reasons of the world has been a cost of living crisis. well, that's right. and i think if a president electronic actually goes ahead with the kind of data for increases that he's threatening or promising against china. and of course, against other countries that have a trade surplus with the united states. then i think that's going to fuel a for the inflation across the word. i don't think that's going to ease the problems and the challenges to the global economy. but i also think that, you know,

and we were talking about the us, china a send off or confrontation. i also think that, you know, given again his transaction or attitude, either we're going to see a real intensification of the trade war. the data for that you were just mentioning, or we might just see president trump driving the kind of a grand bargain with the chinese government, because the chinese candid don't want to fight. and trump is many times during the election camp. instead, he respects president. she didn't thing that he has a desire for a better relationship with china so, so he's always seeing both sort of country trends as well. oh, country statements. but a businessman is likely to, i think, want to have some kind of a deal with china rather than an endless confrontation. so a little more optimistic on that front of

a deal when we talk. so when we talk about deals for around the climate deal with the trump administration coming back into power, we saw him take us out of the paris accord. chris, why do you think 2025 is likely to see the world go on climate issues as well? i thought i would expect a present electronic to be maybe less and less opposition as to if you like or less obstructive to decline. but issues this don't want to do stuff like that and chris won't want signals, does it? have you seen the? because a lot has happened in the world of the last 4 years, the eighty's caberry a lot more of this damage that is being done because of climate change. we've had more v, like uh, more of more evidence of the impact of board disasters. it's more difficult for, for people to deny the impact of climate change. it's a, since he was last president's. now that's not to say he's going to suffer any sort

of tiffany or transformation or whatever, as you say, he's already here these days is that he wants to us to continue to develop it's, it's hydro carpenters are says he's already told europe that you know and one of the ways for europe to avoid any trace tires with us is for them to buy more us energy, more oil, more gas. so it's quite clear that he, he does intend, you know, giving all of assistance to the energy hydrocarbon industry to continue developing . but at the same time, as i say the, the evidence has continues to manage and has mounted. and i don't think can be as obstructive to climate cooperation as he was before. but he clearly is not going to be a strong advocate either. it's it to slow down the us response, but having said that, the u. s. versus even the us response or the us a position with regard to climate change in the last several years has been very, very weak in the sense that you've had been very strong statements of intent from

the white house, but almost no follow through. because they have been able to either because of opposition and congress are, or lack of a ability to at least trump looks like he will be stronger. so even if he commits to a smaller pass, it more likely will get done. then we've seen under the bite administration, so a bit of a contradiction. i know, but that's what i would expect and could be of there's a lot at stake for developing countries, especially small i nations it's, it's a matter of survival. when we spoke about climate issues, right, that definitely the the impact of climate change over the last few. yes and 2024 has been really, i'm high, concrete stuff felt you know, didn't slot issues and defective vacation. then you're going to blow the globe of the woman, consequence and confidence of that. so we're likely to see more action,

especially to qualify for gun countries, but some form of re repair ration on the platforms that out there, including the more trouble level for me to get into risk of climate change and the impact that significantly operate on concrete. so in pretty 25, the call what that is likely to increase, where we see more african countries making a case for some form of you know, repair, regional support to meet to get the rates copeland, climate change. all right, i think we've got a about a minute left. so really high as we're saying, perhaps in some areas a withdrawal of, of interest from global powers. whether it's a multi lateral action on climate. it's on the, on the range of multilateral issues, whether it's vis you, you mentioned the moments ago, but the us interest enough kind of stand the global interest that she mentioned in the show in sedan in that conflict. are we likely,

is that going to increase the trend of local actors, local, and regional pals trying to fill the fact to what does that mean? does that mean creates a instability? i think that's a great question and i think it really points to a something we haven't discussed so far, which is the rise of major pause because the world does not have any kind of type by polarity today. and there's a plenty of space there for other countries, plus global bar has been, you know, is disposing of, there's been a shift in the global better and so far. so we see emitter pause playing a much greater role in shaping global geo politics. countries like the key countries like so the rubia of south africa. many of those as well. i mean, i don't want to go through a list. and so yes, absolutely. i think the move uh america sort of, it draws it into in america 1st. which sort of, in a way it leads to a kind of

a big drawer from many areas of many reasons of the word, the more the opportunities for me deposit to play a role, especially at the regional level. all right, it's going to be interesting. no doubt to watch way of 2025 goes. i think we can all agree on that. that's thank our guess for the comments on this show. many hello the could be a demo and chris wafer and sign q 2 for watch day. you can see the show again, any time by visiting our website. i'll just say we're a don't com funds for further discussion and head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story can also join the conversation on x l handle is at a inside story. from me, sammy say that, and the whole team here for now is go by the in january on alex's 0,

the price of peace analyzes the failure of the us mission to build a stable outcome state. in a new interview series we frame is searching for new conversations and perspectives about the war on cause. an in depth look at the pull to serve as president of the us, donald trump, as he set to be another rated for his 2nd time. oh, thrice explorers growing global movements. the challenge us to redefine how we see our role on the policy the board reveals how israel proffers from selling, cutting edge surveillance and military technology around the world, using an interpreter as a testing ground. january on l g 0 abandoned as a child by his own cristella world news, nothing of the early life and the republic of home. that of default he is living in switzerland. cristo follows a fascinating paper trail that leads from his adopted husband to the country if

he's bad. and the most unexpected re union witness in earlier on o. d 0. the latest news, most people here because they absolutely they work for the states are the same time . it's no country on us as a sanctioned longer than cuba. and there's a conviction here, but that's not right with detailed coverage, with energy infrastructure being the chief target, the extent of the damage is be getting progressively worse from the house of the story. this road lots the i know for sure the boundaries that separates the cost cost extended. bumper. 60, i invoke poor people on both sides say crossing. it is extremely dangerous that they've got a breathtaking tropical paradise. ready to where its former projectors are now we follow through just as they put their lives on the line.

the think it's all one all to 0. the . ready forced out of their homes, i'm flooded out of the shelters, rain cold, and a lack of food. worse than was the humanitarian crisis caused by israel is one gone . the other one down, jordan, this is down to 09 from tow. so coming up, building relations with the outside will delegation from damascus arrives and saudi arabia assyrians, and brace on you here on the new future. the drive in

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