the the . ringback the talks expected soon between european powers and the wrong one is nuclear program. days later, the man who tour up the last agreement, donald trump, will return to the white house. it's a way to think stand was this each site wants. this is inside sort of the hello and welcome to that program on the wrong con. iran says it will hold tools with the u. k. jim and even friends in geneva next week to discuss its nuclear program. and international dale, 10 years ago,

limits hanging around is new to capability in exchange for reduced sanctions. was scrapped by donald trump. he returns as us president this month, but well, strongly hostile to iran. he said then must be another deal is ready to get tax, the weakening of key allies on the collapse of the side raising have shaken to iran in the past. yeah. so what is each side looking for and could a wrong because you a little hard line stones, or is a deal really possible? will hey, from august shortly. but 1st, this report from victoria gates in b, as it's been nearly a decade since world power assigned to land. well, you'd see a do with a rand. under the 7 nation, a quote to rand agreed to scale back its nuclear program. at western nations agreed to list financial trade and oil sanctions. that is isolated and crippled, a ramsey economy. but donald trump pulled the united states out of that agreement in 2018. he said he ran was

a threat in the middle east and the new plan was needed. he re impose sanctions that squeezed a rams economy to run into and suspended some of its commitments. and then you could do an increased uranium enrichment european powers have been battling to save the 2015. do ever since the head of the international atomic energy agency, roughly i'll go see met toper, rainy, and officials into around and know then the including president masood position. he's expressed his willingness to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear. do the i a says around his enrich uranium up to 60 percent 90 percent is needed to reach weapons, grade level the the atlantic republic of iran is ready for new clean negotiations and cooperation within the framework of previous agreements. it depends on how serious the opposite policies are and this messa, ron made the nuclear agreement and implemented with goodwill. it was the other policy. so withdrew the,

the regents political landscape has changed dramatically since the last deal was agreed ran, then it's proxies including has below and how must have been we can by israel in the past. you israel also attacked ran, it responded with me, saw strikes. well, trump pull down to the deal, painstaking me forged a decade ago. the bite and administration has not reinstated it. as you are paying powers and do ran, consider what to do next. that doing so with the uncertainty of what policies the incoming from presidency will post you the victoria gates and b l g 0. the inside story. the i let's bring in august hass on i'm a d n a is a professor at the university of tyrone he joins us from the running capital. and the grand man is the deputy director of middle east and north africa program. have

the european council on foreign relations to joins us from london and treat the policy. is the executive vice president of the quincy in seduce. he joins us from washington, dc. i will welcome to all of you. let's. the entire on with hassan has on. why is this being done now? why is the european powers products u. k, germany reaching out to iran and vice versa, at this particular point as well, there are, there hasn't been really much in terms of the j. c, p, o, a or developments for data to it. what is common and is the president trump that back to power in washington and also and all the uh, basically the snack back in the account is invest was imbedded in the deal is to come up in october. so to these 2 issues, have the potential to escalate things between the ron and the uh, you know, the, the, your cans and the united states. the right hands of course,

are trying to stop this kind of disconnection. reaching a consensus or reconciliation with the europeans. though there are other issues that are affecting to the canada, the relationship with euro, in particular that, that you create an issue. and i was doing an issue. but i think these 2 matchers are the new things that are uh, add that are added to this that are to be added to the uh, the file that has been basically uh, has been stopped by the united states. uh, back in 2018. uh now they, they are trying to stop, i think were on the uranium part, as you heard from me writing an offer shows they are trying to basically stop any escalation, which is a heart thing against a, during the rhetoric. and i think from washington and also the hotline position that

you work in parties are now speaking with regards to a bond. there's an increase of policy at this point, right? so you have written a book on the genesis a wrong, the actual deal with the us a you folded it very closely. the question that most people have is very simple. there was a deal on the table around didn't seem to what are on data stick to the deal, and then the deal was taken off by donald trump. so why not just go back to the deal that we had before? well, this is exactly what the biden ministration should have done and it didn't. instead of going back into the old right away through an executive order, it decided to use trump's sanctions as leverage in order to see if we could get a better deal. and instead they got nothing. and as a result, you now have a situation in which the j, 6, you a, for all practical purposes is dead. snap back as professor, i'm a young pointed out, maybe exercise by the europeans,

and then the next couple of months, which then most likely will trigger any vanya and exit from the entity altogether. and we will see a complete disaster on this file has bite and gone back in with not only would we have avoided this, but most likely the wrong is, would also not be supporting the russians in ukraine and the man or day currently are doing. so this is a, a cascade of, of events that have taken place, started off, of course, with trump pulling out, but really getting aggravated by dividing ministration, choosing not to go back into the deal. that's bringing natalie. hey, natalie. just what's, what's the european strategy? hey y a front of germany and the u. k. doing this now, a blessing, a big part of it is that in preparation for the big uncertainty surrounding the incoming compet ministrations, the europeans wanted to show that they are still in the game of diplomacy,

policy making, international policy making on your, on there is a concern again, given the r nunes wrong president trump, that he made for the north korea with her on and that the europeans will be sidelines. so i think one factor is that the europeans want to show that off the 20 years of sort of ship hitting this nuclear diplomacy with 10 wrong that they stay in the game. because in particular, countries lot fonts have huge stake in the system. the commercial system surrounding the nuclear preparation, and they wanted to show that some of the inspections and warm springs on rollback called the wrong in nuclear activities happen if there is, and you kind of go solutions. secondly, as prefers out money, you know, pointed out the issue of snap back is really the last remaining tool leverage that europeans have at the moment. we use the d test rod, and these meetings are sort of a reminder from the european side to, to for on that there is a slow timing of a tear runs head per se. that is,

iran provides too far escalates to far on nuclear activities that they repeat is we force triggers not bought earlier than they may have to get a ton of money is coming up in october when a critical decision has to be made. and also that leverage can be used to push on pressed the wrong into nuclear diplomacy with the united states on terms that it may not necessarily want from the wrong inside, but feel compelled to give them what's happened on, on the regional landscape in recent months. but i suggest that that i think from the wrong side, there was also an interest to ensure that they sort of paid off the 3 the so of the 3 countries that are policies uh, to nuclear diplomacy, with the ross from a potential maximum pressure campaign from president trump in his 2nd tub. so there's an interest from both sides to continue this diplomatic tongue go going

forward until the tips for them. we understand exactly where us policy goes on the wrong. well, that's bringing house on hey, how son, or is this the iranians peeling off as a and he just said, you created diplomacy? get a framework done right now. then present. donald trump has to follow a he'll be boxed in by. is that a strategy as well? i think the 2 parties are talking to one another with one eye on the white house to see what are the options that are on the table come january 20th or the europeans as early as mentioned, i think they, they have a stake that they want to stay in the game and i think the reading ends on just jumping back and welcome back, provided that these parties are not going to be more catholic than the po, putting more pressure on to run than it is already. and by snapping them back a, the sanctions that you and sanctions now in terms of uh,

your ranking and priorities, of course they don't want escalation for their ideal outcome is. and we can see the ation may be in the short window of opportunity to do that. i think it is going to open with the new administrations, washington. it is a reconciliation that can basically re a re reinstate sort of a deal that can resemble the j cpa, not exactly the j cpa, but at the same time would lower the sanctions that were imposed unilaterally by the united states on yvonne. now the snap back mccann is i'm will do the opposite by basically international advising the sanctions that are you in the lateral now it will give it more, a legal brain international the right. of course. that's a concern. but ron has,

and i think it's part of the rational why they ran guns are now talking to the europeans, considering really the harsh rhetoric we hear from you if you in capitals trade. so one of the things that donald trump said, one of the reasons for pulling out the deal is he said that iran didn't stick to the spirit of the deal. that they were still supposed taking goals and alcohol, the access of resistance, how boss has below the who fees, etc. so that's likely, it's a clue, isn't it likely that that is going to be part of any new deal? is that, do you think that's correct? i think it is quite likely that the next deal, if there is one, will contain other elements and regional aspects are obviously going to be quite important, but whether they will be central to it, whether they will be t variables to it remains to be seen. i think actually the main concern to come pause is not the regional aspect,

but rather why did the original gdcp way not allow american companies to go in to the wrong in market a lot of chinese russian european companies to go in, but not the american ones because the by the obama administration did not towards primary sanctions, meaning the sanctions that the us imposes on its own companies. on the table. i think trump's key interest here is to make sure that if any deal is struck, that he can say he's got a better deal because it will benefit the american economy and the american businesses. and there is an opportunity there because the ronnie is, are now realizing, i think that they will not be any sustainable american sanctions release. unless there is actually american companies in the board meeting that european companies will go into your, on, we'll leave on this on the minute. if the us reimpose the sanctions. but if american companies are in the bond, it will be much more difficult for the us to ever go back to sanctions policy. so

if you actually want to have sustainable sanction, certainly if you need to welcome in the america as into the learning economy. so i think there's an opportunity there since this is a key trump interest the wrong, it seems to be realizing this. the question if is, if the mechanics and the movements of diplomacy actually enabled the 2 parties to even get to the stage of discussing these core issues. any is an interesting point, is that because you've heard trace of policy that talk about the idea that donald trump is a business president, you want the american interest put 1st, that might not chime very well with the europeans, but i mean, that's going to be sticking point when it comes to getting everybody together, surely like i think that's and for better for us we are in a situation where there are so many tens points between your up either on the new fathers, obviously one of them. but you have the ross support to russia as the or p c it in

the board and ukraine, you have, by the actual issues of the west, the detainees on just be held in iran. so we are in an environment. but even if there is a new kid, you, uh, that's uh the repeats are positive, but i don't see that there's going to be a rush of your business is $210.00 wrong of european diplomats going to run in the same way. don't be sold with the opening of following the 2015. you said deal, i think, well, we are entering into is a much more direct negotiation that we've had the full between the us and iran. if indeed, as, as mr. pulse, he said there is going to be diplomacy, but that actually this time round in an ironic way is going to be the rub axes. he runs neighbors that are going to take your traditional role in both to promote account reach whichever on but also the,

the trauma can't reach this iran. i think this is understanding that there's going to be a triangulation of economic benefit. stop is wrong with the ride from a future deal that would 1st and foremost come from countries like for example, could talk the united dog and rights and saudi arabia. and in this way, there is a and past full. what, where the west obviously does the nuclear diplomacy with tech on, on the, are of goals states around here on do some of the regional security discussions with the wrong. but the economic benefit set the right from us functions listing come from some of the runs neighbors 1st and foremost in ways that produce that traditionally we have seen come from europe. so i think the game is a very different one than what we saw in 2015 class on the game is a very different one from what we saw before. if iran is us to give up the support for the excess of resistance and mass as black, such as we mention before, if it's off the tempo it's regional in fluids, is that gonna fly with iran?

is that going to be something they are willing to negotiate? on what, what the red lines that i think they really is where clear back in 2015 that they will move towards regional agreement with the west provided that the nuclear deal would stick and that would work for the right hands economically. i think that it were any and experience is quite the opposite. that does not materialize. now i don't, i don't see any reading an objection to deal on a uh, on a bigger basically deal with the west on a bigger platform. actually it was you rhonda firstly proposed the grand bargain back in 24, but did not receive any answer from the united states. that included regional aspects of course. now with regards to trump, i think uh, i think uh, i mean, no matter what the excuse was, one of the biggest deals that has been signed by who run the past 4 decades web

with was with boeing. so the radio is understood that they need to get engaged with the, with the, with the get the american companies engaged in. yvonne have done their interest also uh, an in, in entering the when you in market. but that did not really stop trump. actually, trump once a deal for himself, he didn't like the 1st deal because it was obama. they wanted a new one, and the indians were ok. but the, the way he posed a uh, pulls the united states out of the deal against its, uh, basically the legality of the, of the, of the deal did, did not appeal to the way any. and so they did it, they couldn't really well. i mean, that's a very good point. so let me, let me pick the up with a trace of teresa. you know, trust is the calling of diplomacy. it's the, the bedrock of diplomacy. there was a deal, trump rip to all up. why should be around ins trust

a new deal coming from trump, even if it's a business based one, as you might suggest, could happen. why did lights or some? and so i trust obviously is important, but trust is not something that you just get on the spot. trust is something that is built up actually to agreements over the course of a very long time. what you need to have in place is mechanisms in that it helps you build trust. and there are plenty of good reasons for the vonnie is not to trust drum to not to trust the united states and vice versa. the question is, do there interest a line? do they have an interest in trying to see if in that range mince can be put in place? i think trump has an interest. he wants to get out of the middle least he wants to reduce the risk of the us getting dragged in towards over there. he wants to be able to say, as a professor might be all said that he did a better deal that this is good for him. this is about his ego. if you take

a look around, there's probably 3 major deals that can be struck by trump within the 1st year. one is between russia and ukraine. one is between israel and saudi arabia and one is between the us and the wrong between the 3. despite the fact that they're all very difficult, it seems to me that the von may actually be the lowest hangings proved for many different reasons, including that the us is the main actor in the to deal making. whereas it is not necessarily in the other ones. and as a result, they may very well end up being the trump prioritizes this issue, and that perhaps not immediately, but after realizing how difficult the others are. and then the question is, does that align with the volume interest? and if it does so, they will have to take a chance, both of them, and then if it works out, then perhaps some trust will be built, if not for the trust depletion will take place. but if you make trust a pre condition for the you will not get a deal under almost any circumstance. and he has an interesting point that treats

and makes in, in washington dc. he's talking about the americans and that, you know, the push for diplomacy, this idea, it's a low hanging for eggs, so it's a deal that can get done. but there is a elephant in the room here as well. is israel? israel has a say in american foreign policy like, well, no, that's actually just the fact. so as well, these guys get involved in this as well. and as we've seen from israel, there's a hard line when it comes to any deal to be made. now whether you your opinions at um, along with all of this, and where is america with, with this idea of the israel, he's going to have to have a site as well as i think said, and keeping israel closely engaged in the discussions that happen with iran. is something that your opinions do us a discretion or even under biden, has understood as an assessment to you to prevent them from icing as a spoiler. so i think going forward and there's going to have to be sort of

a management of relations from both to ron and the united states actually. so on the west side, we have a president's an incoming president, trump that may actually unlike any other president and recent time be able to and let's say strong on israel into accepting a deal between the usa vaughn. and i do think that the notes in yahoo administration will be willing to put up assuming that type of flight that we sort of put up under obama, against it trumpet ministration. i remember that there's going to be a whole series of trade offs that will be happening between the us and as well on issues like what's happening in gaza 11 in syria. so we are again, as i mentioned in a very different game today than we are in 2015. so that needs to be understood. but again, president tom is going to be the president which will not like to be told what to

do. uh, bind is rarely administration and is likely to push back. also, we're going to have a quite a strong hold of republicans in the us congress. and the last time a deal was agreed between the us and iran under president obama. there was a lot of work to be done in the us congress because they were also being essentially courted by is ready interest at that time. but i think now, given that a loyalty to present to him is the number one, piracy for republicans. if there is a deal being pushed forward by president trump, you your message less to start from the public inside and also less less post spots from the democrats that are interested in avoiding major confront with the wrong. and on the wrong inside there will have to be relationship management with russia. i don't see, sorry your running out of time. and i do want to put, you made some very interesting point in saying, i want to put one of them to house on the idea of the negotiation teams. right now

is a very different time is a little, i guess, of said including you. then it was when the initial agreement was made, is iran going to push to a hard line agenda? have a much tougher negotiating stones this time around and knowing the stakes might be a lot higher. actually, yvonne has never put tell you very hard line a, you know, policy when it comes to negotiations with the last in the after the jcp re there, uh, pro engagement reform mind that the new president president, position john is actually, is very much into dealing on a credit matic basis, and i think that's what 12 dictate runs position. moving forward. i don't think a brand new hands are interested in any hotline position. they haven't been, they only stick to their basically, they were saying that the jcp raise the basis for any reading engagement. now i

think it will be the basis for an uber engagement. and it, we haven't, i've restriction but is inclined to dealing based on it. but also with pragmatism, so no, there is no hard lining better hard line position. but at the same time, i mean 11 hand can my clap there is, there is another side that is the united states. uranium is r i n g washington to see what stands and what policy it will choose, what direction will choose. is it a maximum of pressure revert back to enforcement as they call it, or they want to get to a real serious a reconciliation way to do it wrong. now, all other issues, way in here including israel and you crane others. i think it's, it's very complicated, but provided that there's a, well, there's a way what, let's pull that to, to treat that. theresa, is this a cause for optimism? is a deal that we don't know know you called at low hanging fruit earlier, but having listen to a gas,

do you think there's an easy deal or is this going to be yes and the make it, you know, i don't think it's easy at all and i wanna emphasize, i said, relative low hanging fruit compared to the others, it's going to be very, very complicated. i do think, however, that some sort of a framework or roadmap agreement can be agreed upon on a relatively short basis. and from there on see whether it can be filled out with all of the different details that are necessary in order for there to be a final agreement. and such a roadmap or framework agreement. and in and of itself can be tremendously valuable because it can essentially stop the escalation that it's taking place. it can have a d s, glittery effect in and of itself to just reach a framework agreement in short order. given the fact that the region is on the verge of explosion, given what these railways are doing and live in on, in gaza,

increasingly in syria as well. the firing from the who teased to israel, the risk of a larger war. having that type of a framework agreement, that kind of puts a lid on the escalation is in and of itself tremendously valuable. and that i think can be achieved and relative short order. well, all eyes on january 20th, then on the, you know, duration of the new us present. i want to thank oh i guess i find i'm a d n l e guarantee man and treat your policy and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again, any time by visiting all websites i would, is there a dot com and for further discussion, good will facebook page about facebook dot com, forward slash asia inside story. and you could also join the conversation on x. a handle is at asia inside story for me, around con, and the whole team here, bye for now, the

tom, counting the cost from inflation to geo political tensions and trade route. as we look back at the main challenges, but of him to the global economy in 2024 and what's installed for 2025. will it be a year or 2, but bloom or i'll put you in a c, counting the cost on that, i'll just say around. the latest news, the heavy, what sort of the dust and left behind was collected and sold by the devil's washington boscus pox. a city, those are the following scenario with detailed coverage, the origin time government has also launched, i know for ration for control, rob trafficking and contraband from the house of the story. the average syrian here is around 26 years old, off the age of the average german, meaning they can work so much longer. a wave of criminal violence has risen equity to withdraw from top toes, raising the challenging of forests prison riots. political assassinations. ecuador

has plunged from one of the safest countries in latin america to one of the most dangerous, with the government, declaring war on the guns and corruption. the people in power investigates with causes behind the search and violence. and it's devastating impact on the nation. ecuador, on the fire, on that jersey, the hearing defense combination of violent wars and the heavy rain creating a rest of the for more suffering for palestinians. i'll just see you as teens across the world when you close to the house with the story or the sun rises brilliantly here, the history was written. it became theory is here, the

beast in a totally the timeless journey. the down or a. kyle: this is the news hour and i from the coming up in the next 60 minutes. israel forces we evacuation of 2 more hospitals in gulf view and calls the health care to be protective. talk a bit from us with.