we weren't spending money on all of those bonds kilometer, says timothy 11 on on her voices. the world has turned its back on so that our lives do match. so many people matter just as much as any other connect with our community and be part of the conversation. we feel very unsafe because of the 2nd 12 presidency, they don't see the need and then trying to appease the people on social media. the stream on out to 0, the hello i'm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on out a 0 you'll. we can look at the world of business. they cannot make this week in 2024. the fight against the high cost of living was the plan to be almost $1.00, but have central banks really managed to rein in inflation and low prices and bills

dropped significantly in 2025 years. much of that, of course, depends on the price of oil, but the spike geo political tensions in the middle east. prices remain subdued to that change in 2025 of was what it means. energy markets. unlike the rest of the world, china faces deflation. another threat to its economy of donald trump's threatened tariff likes, but it's not just paging it risk the us president elect spock a global trade, the a global fight against inflation. geopolitical tensions in the middle east and escalation and trade tariffs between china on the one side, the us and its allies on the elbow. a slowing chinese economy that has raised alarm due to its ramifications for the rest of the world at a strong us dollar with a bust economy. while europe plays catch up, the global economy has faced multiple challenges in the past year, yet it is proven to be for the most part resilient. so want to install for 2025.

we'll discuss that with, i'll guess shortly. but 1st, let's break down what actually happened economically in 2024. well, the international monetary fund has declared that the global battle against inflation has largely been one in 2022 of the searching to its highest level in decades. inflation began to steadily decline. that is expected default of 3 and a half percent by the end of 2025. that means that people like you and meet prices will rise more slowly, making the cost of living more affordable pots that off is, but inflation could be re ignited if tension continues. and that at least historically war in the region is always led to an increase in the price of oil. all the sofa is rails 14 month for and gaza has done little to push out the cost of that could quickly change if it run it as well. go to wal x, but it's also one that president elect. donald trump's policies could fuel inflation and stop multiple trade was. trump is already threatened terrace on

bricks, nations if they develop a new common current state of challenge the us dollar. he's also said that on his 1st day in office, he will impose an additional 10 percent tariff on all chinese goods. china is economy is still struggling with a slump in the real estate market, a debt crisis, and continued deflation for 2024. it's economic growth was expected to be around 4.8 percent, just shy of aging, 5 percent target research to say that the country is suffering from over production and on the consumption. meanwhile, mario darcy, the full up president of the european central bank, has won the b e. u runs the risk of falling behind both china. i'm the united states in terms of competitiveness and g, d, p. that comes with both france and germany. they use power houses, both face of economic downturn and political crises, despite the various measures taken by e. u. member states,

stronger growth isn't expected in 2025. so let's review 2024. look ahead of 2025 with our panel of experts for joint from london. by then i'll have phase found and c o of micro hive from single pool with joined by deborah elm. this head of trade policy at heinrich, that's an organization of a 100 foundation, which is organization specializing. it's great research and from london in golden, a professor of globalization of development at the oxford university. welcome to you will fill out. it felt like a wild roller coaster at times of what sort of yeah, it was 2024 economically. was a good, bad, perfectly average. well, you're absolutely right. it was a right across the overall the depends who you ask. but given that stocks were off the overall given the fact that inflation was falling gross in general, especially in the us, was from the i would say that 2024 on balance was very, very good. and especially given some of the do politics that we sold over the

course of the is the war against inflation. 12024 will be remembered by many people around the will. of course, for the high cost of living, we were all finding it a bit hard to, to, to meet a, you know, on our bills. are we likely to see for the interest rate cuts in 2025, a price is likely to, to, for or at least not grow as quickly. well, personally, i don't think the installation dragon's has been slain and wal inflation has fallen over the course of 2024. i think it will remain sticky over the course of 2025. not many central banks will continue. it's got rates. and i do think that that's in some ways that being behind the car and thinking that they remain in the old paradigm of low installation. so my bias is that installation will be sticky, l c, p r, in 2025, and that many central banks will end up not costing as much as many people expect.

at the moment. deborah 2024 was a troubling year in particular for china's economy with the threat of, of deflation that what's going wrong and has the government done enough to think to get the chinese economy back on track? so can answer. the 2nd question is easier to answer, which is no, they haven't quite done enough. partly because the scale of the problem has been quite significant. i mean, they have taken steps in 2024 to deal with a declining domestic market, particularly around property prices, in which a so many, especially so many average citizens in china have invested in property and trying to sort that out has consumed a lot of time and effort internally within china, but i think if you look outside of china, actually 2024 has been relatively good economic growth, especially for the rest of the region. given the extent of turmoil that we've had other locations, i mean inflation. yes. as it is a problem,

but it's not quite as central, i think, to many of the economies across asia as it has been for others. and so i think overall relatively decent amounts of economic growth, especially given the turbulence elsewhere. and what's your view on 20? 24. how much damage have the ongoing was garza and ukraine? the the, the geo political risk, the continuing tension? dom to off into linked economies just just how bad was 20? $24.00. in your view. i think 2024 has been surprisingly good. not the listing agent. we've had the average growth rates of over 5 percent. even china, people to a couple of crisis. 5 percent growth we've never achieved. that's in your us on a sustained. ringback basis, so you know, that sort of crisis and to bad if you're in europe or in the us can be big over hangs. do i think globalization is under the match? it's alive and well and moving to asia, but certainly across the atlantic, i think it's under threats. and the was in gauze and israel and,

and ukraine also to me underlining it. so we are seeing a real race, but i think the real challenge is going to come in 2025. when we discover whether uh president trump does what he says he's going to do, which is a start, a tire of war. and that would be very serious, i think the expulsion of undocumented workers in the us, but also slightly the us economy down dramatically. so here's the us uh does what the president from says he's going to do. i think we're going to have a much more difficult 2025 and what, what would a tire for trade for actually look and feel like for the rest of us? well, i think it would be very targeted. i think that be retaliation. so i think we're ready going backwards in terms of what's being achieved over the last 40 is in terms of lowering tyra's, ready to reopen trade system. that would be particularly bad. i think for you, you repeat. i'm countries, i think would be bad for some asian countries and lower income countries like those

in africa, what would be protect the disadvantaged so it would be useful ring for ensuring reassuring these things i think will make that trade much more political and reinforced many of the negative tendencies that we've seen at times in the past, so it's, it'll make it very, very difficult for global companies. this will be particularly challenging because how'd you organize your supply chains? how do you ensure that your business tribes globally, when parts of your business are being isolated through politics? that will do you agree with that and will trump, do you think impose thomas, will he stop trade was as soon as he comes into office? well, i think it's certainly something that framed walls and, and some kind of a positional tower of see he will try to engage in the, the, the logic question is something he did talk about in his campaign trial was introducing a universal tire against all countries worth it up to 5 percent will 10 percent

tariff and that's a change from what he did at it last time. he was in office way. it was more like bilateral trade was, you know, with china with mexico and so on. so if he was introduced as universal tires against the old countries, then that wouldn't be very, very negative overall. so that's for me the, the big thing isn't going to do that. mike bass case is instead he will of, i use terrorists as a weapon against countries you know, to try to get advantages. trade deals with different countries around the world, which does introduce uncertainty as, as a mentioned. but the biggest risk would be, well if we watch the universal terrace, which would take us back to what we saw in 1930 when we had that smooth uh, fully active. which coincided with a great depression. debra, what would that mean for the china is economy in, in particular, as a, as precarious as, as it currently is? well, i think it's a tract, if the trips were truly universal,

actually the damage would be relatively modest. unless you're in the united states at which point everything suddenly became significantly more expensive. but if it was universal, and if it was even then basically everyone else is on the same playing field, entering the us market. so i don't, i don't think that that's the problem. but i think the challenge is that it's unlikely to be a universal policy, which means that there will be opportunities for adjustments depending on country or market or product or even company itself. and so that on even us of application i think is very damaging and create all kinds of challenges for the rest of the world who will have to navigate increasing complexity, increasing difficulty in doing trade. and once you've declared that this isn't acceptable use of the tariffs or acceptable use of the trade policy, then you also give license to others to do something similar i. e, we basically taking the rulebook up the last 70 plus years,

thrown it out the window and said, do whatever you would like. it's a sort of law of the jungle. and i think that is extremely damaging to all of us, especially for asia, which is very export dependents. so if you're export driven and exports are becoming increasingly difficult. compliance costs are through the roof. that is really going to put some pressure on economic growth in to 2025. deborah, but we'll talk about the, about the you in, in a, in a few minutes, which of course, it's got its, its own problems. but if trump does, what do you think he might do or what we all think he might do, he's threatened to do it. why wouldn't you carry through with it? if he's thoughts, some sort of time of war with china before us perhaps? do you think to, to, to make friends at least economically speaking, more with with europe? i think it's possible. i mean, i think one of the, there are so many challenges we have with an incoming trump administration, but one of them that i think i see over and over again in the last few weeks is

difficulties individuals have in imagining an alternative universe that we're about to enter and so you would have said, if i'd asked you a year ago or something, you know, are china in europe going to become best friends you. but as of course not, i'm not suggesting that's going to happen in 2025, but my point is that there are no options on the table as we had in to 2025. and beyond that, i think would have been challenging to imagine. even just a very short time ago and, and so i, 6, certainly within europe, there is a rethink happening on their relationships with united states relationships within europe with each other also relationships with china. and there is a lot of cross tensions between those, especially european economies that are tightly dependent on china, those which are less dependent on china. those which have to think very hard about what is the block do is a group. what do they do?

is individual countries, there are a lot of complexities that are, that are going to create a lot of challenges for officials, certainly. and also for companies heading into 2025 when the rules are changing so quickly. they gotta set, reset the result of a tower for could be that, that's the other people feeling the pain. the real thing could be american consumers who suddenly find that thing a lot more so good. how, how damaging could president trump a fraction target for be for the american economy? i think it could be very damaging indeed. um i think we'd like you to see inflation go up as for interest rates, go up. chrysler, it'll aggregate. ringback many of the inequalities in the us, and i think it would be associated with very, very so be ad disruptions. and it was compounded by his threat to remove and documented work is busy, rapid increase it in construction costs and food costs and services costs like li

carrier and other cap, a compounding that further increasing interest rates. right. so i think the, as long as the fed remains independent, it's going to be very, very difficult in that environment to reduce interest rates and stimulate growth in the us. i also think that is not asian that's most vulnerable to tires because actually 70 percent of asian fried is within asia. it's ready. so some countries like the u. k which are trying to diversify increasing in the us market of the commodity exports is that will be particularly vulnerable to a tire as well. so that is, is a big line below. why is your lagging behind both the us on china in terms of competitive task? what does it need to do to catch up kind of catch up or is that possible? ready last? well, there's a lot going on in your project fund to mentally,

if we just focus on johnny, which is the spice it with the launch is calling me with in europe. and the star key is being the us of the leading of the engine. but for your us, and what we're seeing with germany is that fundamentally is the whole business model economic model has broken. so historically it's model was essentially to input cheap energy from russia, manufacturer and diesel petrol calls, and then explore that to the right. so the wild and full thoughts of bats of business model is broken down. no longer do. they have cheap energy on top of that, germany no longer is the dominant. so ultimate, in the world, in the sense that the world's moved onto the electric cause. and you on the last name that so it is a fundamental re shape needed in the drum, the drum, an economy. and so generally, lags the novel pull your down and roll. um, so the task is quite large full for your to do something and a key thing will be full for them to think about that cheap energy sources. another

aspect of this is to shift the industrial focus off of your, especially germany, away from the traditional multi set. so another aspect of this is that they'll need to think more about being more physically active in general and think back to investments. um overall, and that's been a big challenge full for the your teens. as we've seen in the latter part of 2024 with the german government. and the french government have some have full and different full ways and being unable to implement fiscal policies to, to what they had planned to. uh, so i think a lot of challenges. um and i think that 2025 will be an important test for, for your the blow as the political well the, to some out these challenges it's a great question. i think that there is a will to pride to improve the conditions off the current media

verle. the challenge you have in all of these countries is that you really need your pin white policy to, to make things really improved. instead, what you're seeing on the political side is each country is moving in, in, in, in what's into itself. so there's both, and instead of our approach for each country where there's in financing, when, in frauds within jeremy. and so that means that there's a lack of the, your key envision, and that's a big, big, big, big problem. so, so i think while there is a will for change in each country, and the nature of that debate is such that it's preventing the most viable way for them to improve which is in your pain wide solution. deborah, how, how does asia view your sluggishness? right, right now, what's the, what's the view from the? well, i think one of the challenges that we have overall, and one of the reasons why i think donald trump's entry back into power in january is so dangerous is that we have

a global system that is really not in great shape either. we have very few political leaders in asia or in europe, or anywhere frankly, with the stature to push through potentially challenging domestic level reforms, let alone coordinate some kind of international consistent response, or at least even within a smaller group of countries. i think it's very hard to see who is going to be able to push for some kind of stabilizing measure, some kind of coordinated response. and i think that is a huge challenge. and it's not just about what europe does or doesn't do. it's not just about what different asian markets do or don't do. it's really sort of global phenomenon. and that's what makes, i think this period we're entering. so problem attic, this is the one final. what on, on europe, what, what, what are the main challenges that you see for your going forward here? i'm with, with donald trump, back in the white house,

to what extent will all of us, not just you are a but the whole world after work differently. the 1st thing to say about europe is that you cannot make model that your parents have chosen is one which i think they broadly comfortable with, which is relatively short working weeks long holidays and very strong social safety nets. cat, house education laws be free in many countries. that model, of course, is what is behind read should be slower growth. so you are pens, have made a trade off that a once in a way of life. they want the nature of the environment of work life balance, which is i think, different to that in many other countries. i mean they don't asia and even in the us. and that drives i think, the underlying level of the growth then you'd have in other places, whether that sustainable, whether it will have to change is the question. of course it's supposed to be mens

political tension within countries. so i think is likely to continue on that pause . i think your opinions of broadly comfortable with the way of life i've chosen and as a biggest share of the european economy services, which cannot randy be speeded up by a i like cat, like, hospitality like leisure. um, we move from, well, the manufacturing essentially to mass sizes, meals, and medical care. then you have very low probability of a i being the drive of very much more rapid. was it cut side to integration within your is absolutely the key of the capital market integration, the sorts of things that mario drug is recommended, unnecessary. and we are seeing that worked out. but i know and think that you will have a manufacturing revival of a major sorts or a revival in its growth rates to well over 2 percent. i think we have to get comfortable getting your muscle contracting what was

a contracting population separate capital income. so the increase is if you any growth at 2 percent, and i think that's the future for europe. ok, i'm going to ask you now to to gaze into your crystal balls and, and give us your predictions for 2025. i know it's an impossible task and i'm not going to hold you to anything that you say below. we haven't even discussed energy prices yet. i did give us your view of what we can expect. generally in 2025. it also of course, pay the total to to installation. energy price is what, what's going to happen to those next year as well. i think on the energy price side, i actually think energy prices will be relatively stable over the course of 2025. 0, if any think i think that as a risk they could end up getting low. uh, maybe the costs of the not too many premised on the if you look at the mouth supply that's coming on the market and over the course of 2025 is relatively high. um i also think that will be stuck, disclose in some key economies, whether it's china or in your upset, the demand will be less as well. and i also think while we do have the chair

political sanctions, my sense is that they wouldn't necessarily escalate in a way that will disturb key oil produces deborah, what's your view of of 2025, particularly when it comes to asian economies. where will new sources of growth come from? in 2025. 0 is that she is set to be a pretty moribund one for asian economies? i'm losing audio. i think you are asking me about my 2025 prediction. hopefully it's good on your end. why audio technology is always, you know, on, even as we could see from my audio today. and so i do think that there are other challenges ahead besides those which we've talked about, including technology issues. climate remains on the agenda. despite all of this difficulties. we've seen on expected physical battle conflict, you know, across border conflict that is still a problem. still heavy, i need quality. i mean there's a number of things that are

a challenge for 2025. and again, it is going to be a very unusual, very busy year where 2025 on new sources of growth kind of come from deborah. well, that's a tough question, isn't it? i would love to say from lots of green shoots, it's going to be fantastic, but it is hard to see where the pockets of opportunity will be this the in 2025. i think because we're going to have such disruption and it's going to be happening so quickly. i'm not seeing this time around, at least with the trunk to where those growth opportunities will be for sure. because the, it's like an earthquake is hit and now we have older earthquakes and other sen armies. and we have to try to figure out how that all comes together to deliver opportunities in some places. and so identifying ahead of time where those will be is challenging, more challenging than normal. oh, i know we and once it wants to come in on that one as well. and what one sees

depends very much on where one stands and my sense that new growth is gonna come from as a growing at 5 percent on average. the yeah, is astounding. the good by historical comparisons and many countries nature would be buying at more than that. so the answer is asia, the 2nd tour of on so i think is in so some areas of biotech, particularly medical devices, medicine, fantastic advances. there's terrific advances as well on renewables and energy. the price of, of energy is coming down dramatically on renewables and these and i think we will see a i leading to very rapidly advances in some other areas as well as of the coming. yes that's i think it's going to be a bright. yeah. despite this reverberations of uncertainty. lots in the us. i think the uncertainties of that from full generates are going to make it

a very difficult investments environment. and i think you, it is also very uncertain. they find that was sitting in asia and i think to some extent, were you sitting in the gulf of middle east. right. but it's certainly the m right, some top part of the middle east. i think it's a pretty bright future. okay. and 2025 into i've got about a minute left on the discussion i just for the we, we haven't discussed the globalization. i told you to see that trend continuing from 2025. yes. it's, it's not so much di, globalization as a very rapid trends formation of globalization, much more asian globalization. so drug lines ation alive and well in asia. i see the trends formation. digital drop a globalization is still getting very fast. the investment flows in some regions are holding up, but we certainly going to be see a restructuring of globalization. and unfortunately, they won't be seeing as well as a collapse of the globalization of cooperation. so in multilateralism,

the development of co operative solutions, the risk we face is collapsing very rapidly. that means more risk. most hispanic risk expect not only cyber attempt sliver containments of climate change, but also pandemic. a conflict of the shocks, if you don't have confirmation, that risk rises very rapidly. so that's the most warring aspect of the translational globalization of that. we understand that it's been fascinating wishing he will happy healthy and prosper us 2025. thanks for being with us. on counting the cost. thank you. thank you. and that's our show for this week. if you'd like to give us your predictions for 2025 or comments on the discussion you've just seen. i'm at a sending an on x trying to remember to use the hash tag a j c t c. or you could drop us a line cash in the cost of a 0. don't net is our email address as always, suspension of your online at elder 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to

a page that you'll find. individual reports links, even in tot episodes for you to catch up on the fence. it's the best edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian said again for the team here in though how thanks for being with us. the news, which is 0 is next in a special freeport series, or as rise discovers how indigenous the movements and knowledge are re shaping our relationship with the planet. if it doesn't work for nature, nature is going to come pick you in the butt and stuff you and your pace, that pushing on a number of fronts to bring the attention of the walls. so what is going on here? if we don't take care of all of these type of relationship, we have lost those rise. we are nature coming soon on the jersey to report his retreat in a brutal civil war. if it comes to, hadn't been the, the is ready and vision with not being so well for the coming to had become

gentleness like center. you could be in a safe and safe and then you went out into civil war. i started off leaving this one of the grand suite to the coming to a hotel. the next room i was in was underground, tying the prison, so as a hostage, they was the commodore wil hotels on al jazeera. right, and so one of the world's wherever his creatures numbers are plummeting due to deforestation. culture and climate change indian sites are fighting to put one of the most important things to come to the species is coming during the habitat 101 east. we've used the bottle to save into use with mono, just this is in regions that is rapidly develop thing, but it's one also that is afflicted by conflicts political upheaval. some of those who took 12 swear a thing that they sled after hearing that other villages had been attacked. what we do and all just there is try to balance the stories, the good, the bad,

the id tell it as it was. and he's the people who allow us into their lives, dignity into minus. he asked me to tell this story or the low blood shed in johnson is ready for asses and from the home and dogs and city killing 11 members. the same from the on the clock, this is out, is there a life also coming up more forced evacuation orders on hospitals, human rights organizations accuses ro, a deliberately destroying causes health system. setting the scene for new syria. we looked at how one northern city to provide a blueprint.