the, the, there's no limit to how far a dream contains stuck in your own adventure. now counter arrange the hello. i'm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on out a 0 you'll, we can look at the world of business. they cannot make this week in 2024. the fight against the high cost of living was the plan to be almost $1.00, but have central banks really managed to rein in inflation and low prices. and bills dropped significantly in 2025 years. much of that, of course,

depends on the price of oil, but the spike geo political tensions in the middle east. prices remain subdued to that change in 2025 of once. what it means energy markets. unlike the rest of the world, china faces deflation. another threat to its economy of donald trump's threatened tariff likes, but it's not just paging at risk. the us president elect spock a global trade, the a global fight against inflation. geopolitical tensions in the middle east and escalation and trade tariffs between china on the one side, the us and its allies on the elbow. a slowing chinese economy that has raised alarm due to its ramifications for the rest of the world at a strong us dollar with a bust economy. while europe plays catch up, the global economy has faced multiple challenges in the past year, yet it is proven to be for the most part resilient. so want to install for 2025.

we'll discuss that with, i'll guess shortly. but 1st, let's break down what actually happened economically in 2024. well, the international monetary fund has declared that the global battle against inflation has largely been one in 2022 of the searching to its highest level in decades. inflation began to steadily decline. that is expected default of 3 and a half percent by the end of 2025. that means that people like you and meet prices will rise more slowly, making the cost of living more affordable bots that off is, but inflation could be re ignited if tension continues. and that at least historically war in the region is always led to an increase in the price of oil. all the sofa is rails 14 month for and gaza has done little to push out the cost of that could quickly change if it run it as well. go to wal x, but it's also one that president elect. donald trump's policies could fuel inflation and stop multiple trade was. trump is already threatened terrace on

bricks, nations if they develop a new common current state of challenge the us dollar. he's also said that on his 1st day in office, he will impose an additional 10 percent tariff on all chinese goods. china is economy is still struggling with a slump in the real estate market, a debt crisis, and continued deflation for 2024. it's economic growth was expected to be around 4.8 percent. just shy of aging is 5 percent target research to say that the country is suffering from over production and on the consumption. meanwhile, mario darcy, the full up president of the european central bank, has won the b e. u runs the risk of falling behind both china. i'm the united states in terms of competitiveness and g, d, p. that comes as both france and germany. the use power houses both face of economic downturn and political crises, despite the various measures taken by

e. u. member states, stronger growth isn't expected in 2025. so let's review 2024 and look ahead of 2025, with our panel of experts for joint from london. by then i'll have phase found and c o of micro hive from single pool with joined by deborah elm. this head of trade policy at heinrich, that's an organization of a 100 foundation, which is an organization specializing in great research and from london in golden, a professor of globalization of development at the oxford university. welcome to you will fill out. it felt like a wild roller coaster at times of what sort of yeah, it was 2024 economically. was a good, bad, perfectly average. well, you're absolutely right. it was a right across the overall the depends who you ask. but given that stocks were off the overall given the fact that inflation was falling gross in general, especially in the us, was from the i would say that 2024 on balance was very, very good. especially given some of the do politics that we sold over the course of

the is the war against inflation. 12024 will be remembered by many people around the will. of course, for the high cost of living, we were all finding it a bit hard to, to, to be a, you know, on our bills are we likely to see for the interest rate cuts in 2025, a price is likely to, to, for or at least not grow as quickly. well, personally, i don't think the installation dragon's has been slain. and while inflation has fallen over the course of 2024, i think it will remain sticky. over the course of 2025. not many central banks will continue. it's got rates, and i do think that that's in some ways that being behind the car and thinking that they remain in the old paradigm of love inflation. so my bias is that in inflation will be sticky else picky up in 2025 and that many central banks will end up not costing as much as many people expect. at the moment. deborah 2024 was

a troubling year in particular for china's economy was attractive of deflation. that what's going wrong and has the government done enough to think to get the chinese economy back on track? so can answer. the 2nd question is easier to answer, which is no, they haven't quite done enough. partly because the scale of the problem has been quite significant. i mean, they have taken steps in 2024 to deal with a declining domestic market, particularly around property prices, in which a so many, especially so many average citizens in china have invested in property and trying to sort that out has consumed a lot of time and effort internally within china, but i think if you look outside of china, actually 2024 has been relatively good economic growth, especially for the rest of the region. given the extent of turmoil that we've had other locations, i mean inflation. yes. as it is a problem,

but it's not quite as central, i think, to many of the economies across asia as it has been for others. and so i think overall relatively decent amounts of economic growth, especially given the turbulence elsewhere. and what's your view on 2024. how much damage have the ongoing boys and girls and ukraine? the the, the geo political risk, the continuing tension? dom to off into linked economies just just how bad was 2024 in your view. i think 2024 has been surprisingly good. not the listing agent. we've had the average growth rates of over 5 percent. even china, people to a couple of crisis. 5 percent growth we've never achieved. that's in your us on a sustained. ringback basis, so you know, that sort of crisis and to bad if you're in europe or in the us can be big over hangs. do i think globalization is under the match? it's alive and well and moving to asia, but certainly across the atlantic, i think it's under threats. and the was in gauze and israel and,

and ukraine also to me underlining. and so we are seeing a real race, but i think the real challenge is going to come in 2025. when we discover whether uh president trump does what he says he's going to do, which is a start, a tire of war. and that would be very serious, i think the expulsion of undocumented workers in the us, but also slightly the us economy down dramatically. so here's the us uh does what the president from says he's going to do. i think we're going to have a much more difficult 2025 and what, what would a tire for trade for actually look and feel like for the rest of us? well, i think it would be very targeted. i think that be retaliation. so i think we're ready going backwards in terms of what's being achieved over the last 40 is in terms of lowering tyra's, ready to reopen trade system. that would be particularly bad. i think for you, you repeat them. countries i think would be bad for some asian countries and lower

income countries like those in africa, what would be protect the disadvantaged? so it'll be useful ring for ensuring reassuring these things i think will make that trade much more political and reinforced many of the negative tendencies that we've seen at times in the past. so it will make it very, very difficult for global companies. this will be particularly challenging because how'd you organize your supply chains? how do you ensure that your business tribes globally, when parts of your business are being isolated through politics? that will do you agree with that? and will trump, do you think impose thomas? will he stop trade was as soon as he comes into office? well, i think it's certainly something that framed walls and, and some kind of a positional tower of see he will try to engage in the, the, the logic question is something he did talk about in his campaign trial was introducing a universal tire against all countries, whether that's

a 5 percent full time spent tariff and that's a change from what he did at it last time. he was an office way. it was more like bilateral trade was, you know, with china with mexico and so on. so if he was introduced as universal tires against the old countries, then that wouldn't be very, very negative overall. so that's for me the, the big thing isn't going to do that. mike bass case is instead he will of can use terrace as a weapon against countries you know, to try to get advantages. trade deals with different countries around the world, which does introduce uncertainty as, as a mentioned. but the biggest risk would be, well if we watch the universal terrace, which would take us back to what we saw in 1930 when we had that smooth uh, fully active. which coincided with a great depression. debra, what would that mean for the china is economy in, in particular, as a, as precarious as, as it currently is? well, i think it's a tract, if the trips were truly universal,

actually the damage would be relatively modest. unless you're in the united states at which point everything suddenly became significantly more expensive. but if it was universal, and if it was even then basically everyone else is on the same playing field, entering the us market. so i don't, i don't think that that's the problem. but i think the challenge is that it's unlikely to be a universal policy, which means that there will be opportunities for adjustments depending on country or market or product or even company itself. and so that on even us of application i think is very damaging and create all kinds of challenges for the rest of the world who will have to navigate increasing complexity, increasing difficulty in doing trade. and once you've declared that this isn't acceptable use of the tariffs or acceptable use the trade policy, then you also give license to others to do something similar i. e, we basically taking the rulebook up the last 70 plus years,

thrown it out the window and said, do whatever you would like. it's a sort of law of the jungle. and i think that is extremely damaging to all of us, especially for asia, which is very export dependents. so if you're export driven and exports are becoming increasingly difficult. compliance costs are through the roof. that is really going to put some pressure on economic growth in to 2025. deborah, but we'll talk about the, about the you in, in a, in a few minutes, which of course, it's got its, its own problems. but if trump does, what do you think he might do or what we all think he might do, he's threatened to do it. why wouldn't you carry through with it? if he's thoughts, some sort of time of war with china before us perhaps? do you think to, to, to make friends at least economically speaking, more with with europe? i think it's possible. i mean, i think one of the, there are so many challenges we have with an incoming trump administration, but one of them that i think i see over and over again in the last few weeks is

difficulties individuals have in imagining an alternative universe that we're about to enter and so you would have said, if i'd asked you a year ago or something, you know, are china in europe going to become best friends you. but as of course not, i'm not suggesting that's going to happen in 2025, but my point is that there are no options on the table as we had in to 2025. and beyond that, i think would have been challenging to imagine. even just a very short time ago and, and so i, 6, certainly within europe, there is a rethink happening on their relationships with united states relationships within europe with each other also relationships with china. and there is a lot of cross tensions between those, especially european economies that are tightly dependent on china, those which are less dependent on china. those which have to think very hard about what is the block do is a group. what do they do?

is individual countries, there are a lot of complexities that are, that are going to create a lot of challenges for officials, certainly. and also for companies heading into 2025 when the rules are changing so quickly. they gotta set, reset the result of a tower for could be that, that they need people feeling the pain. the real thing could be american consumers who suddenly find that thing a lot more so good. so how, how damage includes president trump a fraction target for be for the american economy? i think it could be very damaging indeed. um i think we'd like you to see inflation go up that for interest rates go up. chrysler, it'll aggregate. ringback many of the inequalities in the us, and i think it would be associated with very, very so be ad disruptions. and it was compounded by his threat to remove and documented work is busy, rapid increase it in construction costs and food costs and services costs like li,

catera and other cat compounding. that's for the increasing interest rates. right. so i think the, as long as the fed remains independent, it's going to be very, very difficult in that environment to reduce interest rates and stimulate growth in the us. i also think that is not asian that's most vulnerable to tires because actually 70 percent of asian fried is within asia. it's ready. so some countries like the u. k which are trying to diversify increasing into the us market of the commodity exports is that will be particularly vulnerable to a tire as well. so that is, is a big line below why is your lagging behind both the us and china in terms of competitive task? what does it need to do to catch up kind of catch up or is that possible? ready last? well, there's a lot going on in your project fund to mentally,

if we just focus on germany, which is the spice it with the launch is calling me with in europe. and the star key is being the us of the leading of the engine. but for your us, and what we're seeing with germany is that fundamentally it's the whole business model economic model has broken. so historically it's model was essentially to input cheap energy from russia, manufacturer and diesel petrol calls, and then explore that to the, to the wild and full thoughts of, that's a business model is broken down. no longer do. they have cheap energy on top of that. germany no longer is the dominant, so ultimate, in the world, in the sense that the world's moved on to electric calls in germany last name that so it is a fundamental research. i need it in the drum, the drum, an economy. and so generally, lags the novel pull your down and roll um, so the task is quite large, full for your to do something and a key thing will be full for them to think about that cheap energy sources. another

aspect of this is to shift the industrial focus off of your, especially germany, away from the traditional multi set. so another aspect of this is that they'll need to think more about being more physically active in general and think back to investments. um overall, and that's been a big challenge full for the your teens. as we've seen in the last a part of 2024 with the german government. and the french government have some have full and different full ways and being unable to implement fiscal policies to, to what they had planned to. uh, so i think a lot of challenges. um and i think that 2025 will be an important test for, for your the blow as the political well the to some out these challenges it's a great question. um, i think that there is a well to pride to implement the conditions off the current media

verle the challenge you have and all of these countries is that you really need to, your can wides policy to, to make things really improved. instead, what you're seeing on the political side is each country is moving in, in, in, in what's into itself. so there's both and instead of our approach for each country where there's in financing within, from, within jeremy. and so that means that there's a lack of the, your key envision, and that's a big, big, big, big problem. so, so i think while there is a will for change in each country, and the nature of that debate is such that it's preventing the most viable way for them to improve which is in your pain wide solution. deborah, how, how does asia view your sluggishness? right, right now, what's the, what's the view from the? well, i think one of the challenges that we have overall, and one of the reasons why i think donald trump's entry back into power in january is so dangerous is that we have

a global system that is really not in great shape either. we have very few political leaders in asia or in europe, or anywhere frankly, with the stature to push through potentially challenging domestic level reforms, let alone coordinate some kind of international consistent response, or at least even within a smaller group of countries. i think it's very hard to see who is going to be able to push for some kind of stabilizing measure, some kind of coordinated response. and i think that is a huge challenge. and it's not just about what europe does or doesn't do. it's not just about what different asian markets do or don't do. it's really sort of global phenomenon. and that's what makes, i think this period we're entering. so problem attic, this is the one final. what on, on europe, what, what, what are the main challenges that you see for your going forward here? i'm with, with donald trump, back in the white house. to what extent will one of us, not just you are

a but the whole world after work differently. the 1st thing to say about europe is that you cannot make model that your parents have chosen is one which i think they broadly comfortable with, which is relatively short working weeks long holidays and very strong social safety nets. can health education. lots be free in many countries. that model, of course, is what is behind read should be slower growth. so you are pins have made a trade off that. ringback once in a way of life, they want the nature of the environment of work life balance, which is i think, different to that in many of the countries. i mean they don't asia and even in the us. and that drives i think, the underlying level of the growth then you'd have in other places, whether that sustainable, whether it will have to change is the question. of course it's supposed to be mens

political tension within countries. so i think is likely to continue on that pause . i think your opinions of broadly comfortable with the way of life i've chosen. and as a biggest share of the european economy services, which count randy being speeded up by a i like cat, like, hospitality, like leisure. um we move from, well, the manufacturing essentially to mass sizes, meals and medical care. when you have very low. ringback probability of a i being the drive of very much more rapid, was it cut side? some integration within your is absolutely the key of the capital market integration. the sorts of things that mario drug has recommended, unnecessary. and we are seeing that worked out, but i know and think that you will have a manufacturing revival of a major sorts or a revival in its growth rates to well over 2 percent. i think we have to get comfortable getting your muscle contracting. what was a contracting population?

separate capital income still increases if you any growth at 2 percent, and i think that's the future for europe. ok, i'm going to ask you now to to gaze into your crystal balls and, and give us your predictions for 2025. i know it's an impossible task and i'm not going to hold you to anything that you say below. we haven't even discussed energy prices yet. i did give us your view of what we can expect. generally in 2025. it also of course pay the total to to inflation. energy price is what, what's going to happen to those next year? well, i think on the energy price side, i actually think energy prices will be relatively stable over the course of 2025. 0, if any think i think that as a risk they could end up in low a, maybe the costs of the. and that's mainly premised on the if you look at the amount supply that's coming on the market of the costs 2025 is relatively high. um i also think that will be stuck as close in some key economies, whether it's china or in your upset, the demand will be less as well. and i also think while we do have the chair

political sanctions, my sense is that they wouldn't necessarily escalate in a way that will disturb key oil produces, deborah, what's your view of of 2025, particularly when it comes to asian economies. where will new sources of growth come from in 2025 or is this year set to be a pretty more than one foot for asian economies? i'm losing audio. i think you are asking me about like 2025 prediction. hopefully it's good on your end, why audio technology is always, you know, on, even as we could see from my audio today. and so i do think that there are other challenges ahead besides those which we've talked about, including technology issues. climate remains on the agenda despite all of this difficulties we've seen on expected physical battle conflict, you know, across border conflict. that is still a problem. still heavy, i need quality. i mean there's a number of things that are

a challenge for 2025. and again, it is going to be a very unusual, very busy year where 2025 on new sources of growth kind of come from deborah. well, that's a tough question, isn't it? i would love to say from lots of green shoots, it's going to be fantastic, but it is hard to see where the pockets of opportunity will be this the in 2025. i think because we're going to have such disruption and it's going to be happening so quickly. i'm not seeing this time around, at least with the trunk to where those growth opportunities will be for sure. because the, it's like an earthquake is hit and now we have older earthquakes and other sen armies. and we have to try to figure out how that all comes together to deliver opportunities in some places. and so identifying ahead of time where those will be is challenging, more challenging than normal. oh, i know we and once it wants to come in,

i might as well. and what one sees depends very much on where one stands and my sense that new growth is gonna come from a is a growing at 5 percent on average. the yeah, is astounding. the good by historical comparisons and many countries, nature would be buying it more than that. so the answer is asia, the 2nd tour of on so i think is in so some areas of biotech, particularly medical devices, medicine, fantastic advances. there's terrific advances as well on renewables and energy. the price of, of energy is coming down dramatically on renewables and these and i think we will see a i leading to very rapid advances in some other areas as well as the come in. yes that's i think it's going to be a bright. yeah. despite this reverberations of uncertainty. lots in the us. i think the uncertainties of that from pull generates are going to make it

a very difficult investments environment. and i think you, it is also very uncertain. they find that was sitting in asia and i think to some extent, were you sitting in the gulf of middle east uh but that certainly i'm right some top part of the middle east. i think it's a pretty bright future. okay. and 2025 into i've got about a minute left on, on the discussion. i just, what are we? we haven't discussed the globalization. i told you to see that trend continuing. trump 2025. yes. it's, it's not so much di, globalization as a very rapid trends formation of globalization, much more asian globalization. so it's the last ation, alive and well in asia, i see the trends formation. digital drop a globalization is still getting very far as the investment flows in some regions are holding up. but we certainly going to be see a restructuring of globalization. and unfortunately, they won't be seeing as well as a collapse of the globalization of cooperation. so in multilateralism,

the development of co operative solutions, the risk we face is collapsing very rapidly. that means more risk. most hispanic risk expect not only cyber attempt sliver containments of climate change, but also pandemic. a conflict of the shocks, if you don't have confirmation, that risk rises very rapidly. so that's the most warring aspect of the truck, informational globalization of that we understand that it's been fascinating wishing he will happy healthy and prosper us 2025. thanks for being with us on counting the cost. thank you. and that's all show for this week. if you'd like to give us your productions for 2025 or comment on the discussion you've just seen. i'm at a cent again on x trying to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c. or you could drop us a line causing the costs out of 0. don't net is our email address. as always, there's plenty more few online. i'll just do a dot com slash c t c. that takes you straight to

a page that you'll find individual reports, links even into episodes for you to capture on the fence. it's for this edition of counting the cost of a tree. instead of going for the team here, and though how, thanks for being with us, the news i was a 0 is the, the same as the way like columbia. bu jeff has become a stomping grounds for trespasses, as desperate people transgress and illegal passage to feed an emerging fuel trafficking market. we followed the powerless journey unguarded through the line of fire risk at all, and is wailing columbia on al jazeera. my light bill came entries, the ice on which is here. the

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trafficking, and contraband from the house of the story. the average syrian here is around 26 years old, off the age of the average german, meaning they can work from much longer. the i intend to resign as party leader as prime minister kind of does need to justin true. terry says he'll resign is prime minister off 2 weeks of political time on the other. them are a kyle, this is out. is there a line from doha also coming up at least $48.00 palestinians, including a child that killed him gauze that in the past 24 hours in.