was collected uninstalled by the devil's boss is the mosque as a fox, a city of those different scenarios with detailed coverage, the origin time government has also lost, i know for ration controls, lots of trafficking and contraband from the house of the story. the average syrian here is around 26 years old, off the age of the average german, meaning they can work from much longer. the hello, i'm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on how to 0 your. we can look at the world of business and they cannot make this freak in 2024. the fight against the high cost of living was the plan to be almost $1.00, but have central banks really managed to reign in inflation and low prices. and bills dropped significantly in 2025 years. much of that of course,

depends on the price of oil, but this pipe geo political tensions in the middle east prices remain subdued to that change in 2025. and what would it means? energy markets? unlike the rest of the world, china faces deflation, another threat to its economy of donald trump's threatened tariff likes, but it's not just paging at risk. the u. s. president elect spock a global trade, the a global fight against inflation. geopolitical tensions in the middle east and escalation and trade tariffs between china on the one side, the us and its allies on the elbow. a slowing chinese economy that has raised alarm due to its ramifications for the rest of the world at a strong us dollar with a bust economy. while europe plays catch up, the global economy has faced multiple challenges in the past year, yet it is proven to be for the most part resilient. so what's in store for 20?

$25.00. we'll discuss that with, i'll guess shortly. but 1st, let's break down what actually happened the comically in 2024. well, the international amount of refunds is declared that the global battle against inflation has largely been one in 2022 of the searching to its highest level in decades. inflation began to steadily decline and is expected to fall to 3 and a half percent by the end of 2025. that means for people like you and me, prices will rise more slowly, making the cost of living more affordable thoughts that off is but inflation could be re ignited if tension continues in the middle east. historically war in the region has always led to an increase in the price of oil, all the sofa, israel of 14 month for and gaza has done little to push up the cost of that good, quickly change if it run it as well. go to wal x, but it's also one the president elect. donald trump's policies could fuel inflation

and stop multiple trade was. trump is already threatened terrace on bricks, nations if they develop a new common currency to challenge the us dollar. he's also said that on his 1st day in office, he will impose an additional 10 percent tariff on old chinese goods. china is economy is still struggling with a slump in the real estate market, a debt crisis, and continued deflation for 2024. it's economic growth was expected to be around 4.8 percent, just shy of badging 5 percent target research to say that the country is suffering from over production and on the consumption. meanwhile, mario darcy, the full up president of the european central bank, has won the b e. u runs the risk of falling behind both china. i'm the united states in terms of competitiveness and g, d, p. that comes as both france and germany. the use power houses both face of economic downturn and political crises, despite various measures taken by

e. u. member states, stronger growth isn't expected in 2025. so let's review 2024. look ahead to 2025. with our panel of experts we're joined from london by then i'll have phase found a n c o of micro hive from single pool. we're joined by deborah elm, this head of trade policy at heinrich, that's an organization of a 100 foundation, which is an organization specializing and trade research and from london in gold and a professor of globalization of development at oxford university. welcome to you will fill out. it felt like a wild roller coaster at times of what sort of year was 2024 economically was a good, bad, perfectly average. well, you're absolutely right. it was the right across the overall the depends who you ask. but given that stocks were off overall, given the fact that inflation was falling, gross in general, especially in the us, was from the i would say that 2024 on balance was very, very good. and especially given some of the do politics that we sold over the

course of the is the war against inflation. 12024 will be remembered by many people around the will. of course, for the high cost of living, we were all finding it a bit hard to, to, to meet a, you know, on our bills. are we likely to see for the interest rate cuts in 2025, a price is likely to, to, for, or at least not grow as quickly. well, personally, i don't think the inflation dragons has been slain while inflation has folding over the course of 2024. i think it will remain sticky over the course of 2025. not many central banks will continue to cut rates. and i do think that that's in some ways that being behind the cause and thinking that they remain in the old paradigm of love inflation. so my bias is that in inflation will be sticky, else the key are in 2025 and that many central banks will end up not costing as

much as many people expect. that the moment debra 2024 was a troubling year in particular for china's economy was attractive of deflation. that what's going wrong and has the government done enough to think to get chinese economy back on track? so can answer. the 2nd question is easier to answer, which is no, they haven't quite done enough. partly because the scale of the problem has been quite significant. i mean, they have taken steps and 2024 to deal with a declining domestic market, particularly around property prices, in which a so many, especially so many average citizens in china. i have invested in property. i'm trying to sort that out, has consumed a lot of time and effort internally within china. but i think if you look outside of china, actually 2024 has been relatively good economic growth, especially for the rest of the region. given the extent of turmoil that we've had other locations, i mean, inflation, yes, it is a problem,

but it's not quite as central, i think, to many of the economies across asia as it has been for others. and so i think overall relatively decent amounts of economic growth, especially given the turbulence elsewhere. and what's your view on 2024. how much damage have the ongoing boys and girls and ukraine? the the, the geo political risk, the continuing tension done to our intellect, economies just just how bad was 2024 and your view. i think 2024 has been surprisingly good. not least in the age of we've had the average growth rates of over 5 percent. even china people took over crisis 5 percent growth. we've never achieved that in your us on a sustained. ringback basis, so you know, that sort of crisis and to bad if you're in europe or in the us can be big over hangs. i think globalization is under to match. it's alive and well, i'm moving to asia, but certainly across the atlantic. i think it's under threats. i'm the was in

a guys and israel and in ukraine also to me underlining. and so we are seeing a real threats. but i think the real challenge is going to come in 2025 when we discover whether uh president trump does what he says he's gonna do, which is the start of tariff war. and that would be very serious. i think the expulsion of undocumented workers in the us would also slow to the us economy down dramatically. so if the us uh does what the president from says he's going to do, i think we're going to have a much more difficult 2025. and what, what would a tire for trade for actually look and feel like for the rest of us? well, i think it would be very targeted. i think that be retaliation. so i think we're ready going backwards in terms of what's being achieved over the last 40 years in terms of lowering tyra's, right. as a re open trade system, it would be particularly bad. i think for you, you repeat, i'm countries, i think would be bad for some asian countries and lower income countries like those

in africa, what would be particularly disadvantaged? so it'll be useful ring for ensuring reassuring these things i think will make type of trade much more political and reinforced many of the negative tendencies that we've seen at times in the past. so. ringback it's, it'll make it very, very difficult for global companies. this will be particularly challenging because how do you organize your supply chains? how do you ensure that your business tribes globally, when parts of your business are being isolated through politics? that will, do you agree with that and will trump do you think impose thomasville, he stop trade was as soon as he comes into office. well i think it's certainly something that framed walls and, and some kind of a positional terrace. he will try to engage in the the, the logic question is something he did talk about in his campaign trial was introducing a universal tire speed countries,

but that's the 5 central time spent terrace. and that's a change from what he did it last time. he was an office where it was more like bilateral trade was, you know, with china with mexico and so on. so if he was introduced as universal tires against the old countries, then that wouldn't be very, very negative overall. so that's for me the, the big thing isn't going to do that, mike bass, case a is instead. so he will have use terrace as a weapon against countries you know, to try to get advantages. trade deals with different countries around the world, which does introduce uncertainty as, as a mentioned. but the biggest risk would be, what if we, what's the universal terrace, which would take us back to what we saw in 1930 when we had that suits uh for the acts which coincided with the great depression. debra, what would that mean for china's economy in, in particular, as a, as precarious as, as it currently is? well, i think it's a tract, if the trips were truly universal,

actually the damage would be relatively modest. unless you're in the united states at which point everything suddenly became significantly more expensive. but if it was universal, and if it was even then basically everyone else is on the same playing field, entering the us market. so i don't, i don't think that that's the problem. but i think the challenge is that is unlikely to be a universal policy, which means that there will be opportunities for adjustments depending on country or market or product or even company itself. and so that on, even this of application i think, is very damaging and creates all kinds of challenges for the rest of the world who will have to navigate increasing complexity, increasing difficulty in doing trade. and once you've declared that this is an acceptable use of tariffs or acceptable use of trade policy, then you also give license to others to do something similar i. e, we basically taking the route, woke up the last 70 plus years,

throwing it out the window and said, do whatever you would like, it's the sort of law of the jungle. and i think that is extremely damaging to all of us, especially for asia, which is very export dependents. so if you're export driven and exports are becoming increasingly difficult. compliance costs are through the roof. that is really going to put some pressure on economic growth in to 2025. debra. but we'll talk about the, about the you in, in a, in a few minutes, which of course is go to its, its own problems. but if trump does, what do you think he might do or what we all think he might do, he's threatened to do it. why wouldn't they carry through with it if he starts some sort of time of war with china before us perhaps? do you think to, to, to make friends at least economically speaking, more with with europe? i think it's possible. i mean, i think one of the, there are so many challenges we have with an incoming trump administration, but one of them that i think i see over and over again in the last few weeks is

difficult. these individuals have in imagining an alternative universe that we're about to enter. and so you would have said, if i'd asked you a year ago or something, you know, are china in europe going to become best friends you. but as of course not, i'm not suggesting that's going to happen in 2025, but my point is that there are now options on the table as we had in to 2025. and beyond that, i think would have been challenging to imagine. even just a very short time ago and, and so i, 6, certainly within europe, there is a rethink happening on their relationships with united states relationships within europe with each other also relationships with china. and there is a lot across tensions between those, especially european economies that are tightly dependent on china, those which are less dependent on china, those which have to take very hard about what is the block do as a group,

what do they do is individual countries there are a lot of complexities that are, that are going to create a lot of challenges for officials, certainly. and also for companies heading into 2025, when the rules are changing so quickly, they gotta set reset the result of a tower for could be that, that's the people feeling, the pain. the real thing could be american consumers who suddenly find that, that paying a lot more for goods. how, how damaging could president trump uh, ranking target for be for the american economy? i think it could be very damaging indeed. i think we'd like you to see inflation gallop best for interest rates, go up chrysler, it'll aggregate. ringback many of the inequalities in the us, and i think it would be associated with very, very so be ad disruptions. and it was compounded by his threat to remove and documented work is busy, rapid increase it in construction costs and food costs and services. costs like

lake had one other cap compounding that for the increasing interest rates. and so i think the, as long as the fed remains independent, it's going to be very, very difficult in that environment to reduce interest rates and stimulate growth in the us. i also think that is not asian that's most vulnerable to tires because actually 70 percent of asian trade is within asia. it's ready. so some countries like the u. k, which are trying to diversify increasing into the us market of the commodity exports as it will be particularly vulnerable to a tire of will. so that is, is a big line below. why is your lagging behind both the us and china in terms of competitive task? what does it need to do to catch up kind of catch up? where is that possible? ready last? well, there's a lot going on in your problem. it's fun to mentally. uh,

if we just focus on johnny, which is the site that with the launch is calling me within europe and historically as being the us of the leading of the engine. but for your us. and what we're seeing with germany is that fundamentally it's the whole business model economic model has broken. so historically it's model was essentially to input cheap energy from russia, manufacturer and diesel petrol calls, and then explode that to the rest of the world. and full talks about a business model has broken down the longer do they have cheap energy on top of that, germany no longer is the dominant. so ultimate, in the world, in the sense that the world's moved on to the electric causing journey last name that so there's a fundamental reshape needed in the drum, the drum, an economy. and so generally, lags the novel pull your down and roll. so the task is quite large for your to do something and a key thing will be full for them to think about that cheap energy source is

another aspect of this is to shift the industrial focus off of your, especially germany, away from and the traditional multi set, so another aspect of this is that they'll need to think more about being more physically active in general and think back to investments. um overall, and that's been a big challenge full for the your teens. as we've seen in the latter part of 2024 with them and government and the french government have to have full and different full ways and being unable to implement fiscal policies to, to what they had planned to. so they got lots of challenges. um and i think that 2025 will be an important test for, for your ups. the below is the political well the to some out these challenges. it's a great question. um, i think that there is a will to pride to improve the conditions off the current media

verle the challenge you have and all of these countries is that you really need to, your can wides policy to, to make things really improved. instead, what you're seeing on the political side is each country is moving in, in, in, in what's into itself. so there's both, and instead of our approach for each country where there's in financing, when, in frauds within jeremy. and so that means that there's a lack of the, your key envision, and that's a big, big, big, big problem. so, so i think while there is a will for change in each country, and the nature of that debate is such that it's preventing the most viable way for them to improve which is in your pain wide solution. deborah, how, how does asia view your sluggishness? right, right now, what's the, what's the view from the? well, i think one of the challenges that we have overall, and one of the reasons why i think donald trump's entry back into power in january is so dangerous is that we have

a global system that is really not in great shape either. we have very few political leaders in asia or in europe, or anywhere frankly, with the stature to push through potentially challenging domestic level reforms, let alone coordinate some kind of international consistent response, or at least even within a smaller group of countries. i think it's very hard to see who is going to be able to push for some kind of stabilizing measure, some kind of coordinated response. and i think that is a huge challenge. and it's not just about what europe does or doesn't do. it's not just about what the different asian markets do or don't do. it's really sort of global phenomenon. and that's what makes, i think this period we're entering. so problem attic. this is the one final. what on, on europe, what, what, what are the main challenges that you see for your going forward here? i'm with, with donald trump, back in the white house. to what extent will one of us, not just you are

a but the whole world after work differently. the 1st thing to say about europe is that you cannot make model that your parents have chosen is one which i think they broadly comfortable with, which is relatively short working weeks long holidays and very strong social safety nets. can health education. lots be free in many countries. that model, of course, is what is behind read should be slower growth. so you are pens, have made a trade off that a once in a way of life. they want the nature of the environment of work life balance, which is i think, different to that in many other countries. i mean they don't asia and even in the us. and that drives i think, the underlying level of the growth then you'd have in other places, whether that sustainable, whether it will have to change is the question. of course it's supposed to be mens

political tension within countries. so i think is likely to continue on that pause . i think your opinions of broadly comfortable with the way of life i've chosen and as a biggest share of the european economy services, which cannot randy be speeded up by a i like cat, like, hospitality like leisure. um we move from, well the manufacturing essentially to mass sizes, meals and medical care when you have very low. ringback probability of a i being the drive of very much more rapid, was it cut side? some integration within your is absolutely the key of the capital market integration. the sorts of things that mario drug has recommended, unnecessary. and we are seeing that worked out, but i know and think that you will have a manufacturing revival of a major sorts or a revival in its growth rates to well over 2 percent. i think we have to get comfortable in europe and it's a contracting what was

a contracting population. separate capital income still increases if you any growth at 2 percent, and i think that's the future for europe. ok, i'm going to ask you now to to gaze into your crystal balls and, and give us your predictions for 2025. i know it's an impossible task and i'm not going to hold you to anything that you say below. we haven't even discussed energy prices yet. i did give us your view of what we can expect. generally in 2025. it also of course pay the total to to installation. energy price is what, what's going to happen to those next year? well, i think on the energy price side, i actually think energy prices will be relatively stable over the course of 2025. 0, if any think i think that as a risk they could end up in low a, maybe the costs of the. and that's mainly premised on the if you look at the amount supply that's coming on the market of the costs 2025 is relatively high. um i also think that will be stuck as close in some key economies, whether it's china or in your upset that the mound will be less as well. and i also think while we do have the chair political sanctions,

my sense is that they wouldn't necessarily escalate in a way that will disturb key oil produces, deborah, what's your view of of 2025, particularly when it comes to asian economies. where will new sources of growth come from in 2025 or is this year set to be a pretty more than one foot for asian economies? i'm losing audio. i think you are asking me about my 2025 prediction. hopefully it's good on your end, why audio technology is always, you know, on, even as we could see from my audio today. and so i do think that there are other challenges ahead besides those which we've talked about, including technology issues. climate remains on the agenda despite all of this difficulties we've seen on expected physical battle conflict, you know, across border conflict. that is still a problem. still heavy, i need quality. i mean there's a number of things that are

a challenge for 2025. and again, it is going to be a very unusual, very busy year where 2025 on new sources of growth kind of come from deborah. well, that's a tough question, isn't it? i would love to say from lots of green shoots, it's going to be fantastic, but it is hard to see where the pockets of opportunity will be this the in 2025. i think because we're going to have such disruption and it's going to be happening so quickly. i'm not seeing this time around, at least with the trunk to where those growth opportunities will be for sure. because the, it's like an earthquake is hit and now we have older earthquakes and other sen armies. and we have to try to figure out how that all comes together to deliver opportunities in some places. and so identifying ahead of time where those will be is challenging, more challenging than normal. oh, i know we and once it wants to come in on that one as well. and what one sees

depends very much on where one stands and my sense that new growth is gonna come from a is a growing at 5 percent on average. the yeah, is astounding. the good by historical comparisons and many countries, nature would be buying it more than that. so the answer is asia, the 2nd tour of on so i think is in so some areas of biotech, particularly medical devices, medicine, fantastic advances. there's terrific advances as well on renewables and energy. the price of, of energy is coming down dramatically on renewables and these and i think we will see a i leading to very rapid advances in some other areas as well as the come in. yes that's i think it's going to be a bright. yeah. despite this reverberations of uncertainty. lots in the us. i think the uncertainties of that from full generates are going to make it

a very difficult investments environment. and i think you, it is also very uncertain. they find that was sitting in asia and i think to some extent, were you sitting in the gulf? i'm at least uh but that certainly i'm right some, it's all part of the middle east. i think it's a pretty bright future. okay. and 2025 into i've got about a minute left on, on the discussion. i just, what are we, we haven't discussed the globalization. i told you to see that trend continuing from 20 to 25. yes. it's, it's not so much di, globalization as a very rapid trends formation of globalization, much more asian globalization, so driven lines asian alive and well in asia, i see the trans formation digital drop a globalization is still getting very far as the investment flows in some regions are holding up, but we certainly are going to be see a restructuring of globalization. and unfortunately, they won't be seeing as well as a collapse of the globalization of cooperation. so in multilateralism,

the development of co operative solutions, the risk we face is collapsing very rapidly. that means more risk. most hispanic risk expect not only cyber attempt sliver containments of climate change, but also pandemic. a conflict of a socks, if you don't have confirmation, that risk rises very rapidly. so that's the most warring aspect of the truck, informational globalization of that we understand that it's been fascinating wishing he will happy healthy and prosper us 2025. thanks for being with us on counting the cost. thank you. and that's all show for this week. if you'd like to give us your productions for 2025 or comment on the discussion you've just seen. i'm at a cent again on x trying to remember to use the hash tag h a c t c. or you could drop us a line causing the costs out of 0. don't net is our email address, as always as punch him off your online at outer 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you

straight to a page that you'll find. individual reports links even into episodes view to capture on the fence. it's the best solution of counting the cost on a tree instead of going from the team here. and though how, thanks for being with us. the news i was a 0 is the to report his retreat in a brutal civil war. if a colorado hadn't been the v is ready and vision with no shipping, so our for the coming door had become generally extensive. you could be in the safe and safe, and then you went out into civil war. i started off leaving this one of the grand suite to the coming to a hotel. the next room i was in was underground, tying the prison, so as a hostage, they was the commodore wil hotels on al jazeera. from the impact of the us selections, escalating conflict in the middle east. and the urgency of climate action upfront

sets the stage for serious debate on out jersey. or i've been covering all of latin america for most of my career, but no country is a light and it's my job to shed light on how and why the sun rises really into the the history was written. the age of it came, the or yes, here the be students and it totally the timeless journey. the

limits to have a dream contained to study in your own adventure. now, counter and ways the, the knowledgeable is really a tax in southern gaza to at least 20 palestinians, including children sheltering in attend the hello. i mean the city no age. this is out of their life from day also coming up. by the time i get into office, all hell will break out in the middle east. us president elect donald trump, demands that him off release. this is randy. can.