or the hello, i'm adrian said again, this is counting the cost on. i'll just 0 you'll. we can look at the world of business. they cannot make this week in 2024. the fight against the high cost of

living was to try to be almost $1.00, but have central banks really managed to reign in inflation and low prices and bills dropped significantly in 2025. as much of that, of course, depends on the price of oil, but the spike geo political tensions in the middle east. prices remain subdued to that change in 2025 or more what it means energy markets. unlike the rest of the world, china faces deflation. another threat to its economy of donald trump's threatened tariff likes, but it's not just paging it risk the us president elect spock a global trade, the a global fight against inflation. geopolitical tensions in the middle east and escalation and trade tariffs between china on the one side, the us and its allies on the elbow. a slowing chinese economy that has raised alarm due to its ramifications for the rest of the world at a strong us dollar with robust economy. while europe plays catch up in the global

economy has faced multiple challenges in the past year. yet, it is proven to be for the most part resilient. so want to install for 2025. we'll discuss that with, i guess shortly. but 1st, let's break down what actually happened economically in 2024. while the international monetary fund has declared that the global battle against inflation has largely been one in 2022 of the searching to its highest level in decades, inflation began to steadily decline and is expected to full to 3 and a half percent by the end of 2025. that means for people like you and me, prices will rise more slowly, making the cost of living more affordable pots that off is, but inflation could be re ignited if tension continues. and that at least historically war in the region has always led to an increase in the price of oil. all the sofa is rails 14 month for and gaza has done little to push up the cost of

that could quickly change if it run it as well. go to war. experts also want the president to elect donald trump's policies could fuel inflation and stop multiple trade was. trump is already threatened terrace on bricks, nations, if they develop a new common currency to challenge the us dollar. he's also said that on his 1st day in office, he will impose an additional 10 percent tariff on all chinese goods. china is economy is still struggling with a slump in the real estate market, a debt crisis, and continued deflation for 2024. taking on the growth was expected to be around 4.8 percent. just shy of aging 5 percent target research to say that the country is suffering from over production and on the consumption. meanwhile, mario glossy the full up president of the european central bank as well that the d . u runs, the risk of falling behind both china and the united states in terms of competitive

us and g. d. peace that comes as both france and germany. the ears power houses. both the face of economic downturn and political crises, despite the various measures taken by e. u. member states, stronger growth isn't expected in 2025. so let's review 2024 and look ahead of 2025, with our panel of experts with joint from london by the allow have fees found n. c o of micro hive from single pool with joined by deborah elm. this head of trade policy at heinrich, that's an organization of a 100 foundation, which is an organization specializing in trade research and from london in golden, a professor of globalization of development at the oxford university. welcome to you will fill out. it felt like a wild roller coaster at times of what sort of year was 2024 economically was a good, bad, perfectly average. well, you're absolutely right. it was the right across the overall the depends who you ask. but given that stocks were off the overall given the fact that inflation was

falling gross in general, especially in the us, was from the i would say that 2024 on balance was very, very good. especially given some of the do politics that we sold over the course of the is the war against inflation. 12024 will be remembered by many people around the will. of course, for the high cost of living, we were all finding it a bit hard to, to, to meet a, you know, on our bills. are we likely to see for the interest rate cuts in 2025, a price is likely to, to, for or at least not grow as quickly. well, personally, i don't think the installation dragon's has been slain and wal installation has full end of the course of 2024. i think it will remain sticky over the course of 2025. now many central banks will continue. it's got rates, and i do think that that's in some ways that being behind the car and thinking that they remain in the old paradigm of,

of installation. so my bias is that installation will be sticky. l sticky up in 2025 and that many central banks will end up not costing as much as many people expect. at the moment, debra 2024 was a troubling year in particular for china's economy with the threat of, of deflation that what's going wrong? and has the government done enough to think to get the chinese economy back on track? so can answer the 2nd questions easier to answer, which is no, they haven't quite done enough. partly because the scale of the problem has been quite significant. i mean, they have taken steps in 2024 to deal with a declining domestic market, particularly around property prices. in which a so many, especially so many average citizens in china, i have invested in property. i'm trying to sort that out, has consumed a lot of time and effort internally within china. but i think if you look outside of china, actually 2024 has been relatively good economic growth,

especially for the rest of the region. given the extent of turmoil that we've had other locations, i mean inflation. yes, as it is a problem. but it's not quite as central, i think, to many of the economies across asia as it has been for others. and so i think overall relatively decent amounts of economic growth, especially given the turbulence elsewhere. and what's your view on 2024. how much damage have the ongoing boys and girls and ukraine, the, the, the geo political risk, the continuing tension? dom to off into linked economies just just how bad was 2024 in your view. i think 2024 has been surprisingly good. not listing agent, we've had the average growth rates of over 5 percent. even china, people to a couple of crisis. 5 percent growth. we've never achieved the best in your us on a sustained. ringback basis, so you know, that sort of crisis and to bad if you're in europe,

when the us carry big overhangs in globalization is under the match, it's alive and well and moving to asia. but certainly across the atlantic, i think it's under threats. i'm the was in a guys and israel and in ukraine also to me underlining and so we are seeing a real race. but i think the real challenge is going to come in 2025 when we discover whether uh president trump does what he says he's going to do, which is a start, a terrible. and that would be very serious. i think the expulsion of undocumented workers in the us but also slight of the us economy down dramatically. so if the us uh does what the president from says he's gonna do, i think we're going to have a much more difficult 2025. and what, what would a tire for a trade for actually look and feel like for the rest of us? well, i think it would be very targeted. i think that be retaliation. so i think we're ready going backwards in terms of what's being achieved over the last 40 is in

terms of lowering tyra's, right. as a re open trade system, it would be particularly bad. i think for you, you repeat them. countries i think would be bad for some asian countries and lower income countries like those in africa, what will be protected disadvantaged. so it will be useful ring for ensuring reassuring these things i think will make trade much more political and reinforced many of the negative tendencies that we've seen at times in the past. so it'll make it very, very difficult for global companies. this will be particularly challenging because how do you organize your supply chains? how do you ensure that your business drives globally when parts of your business are being isolated through politics? they'll have to agree with that at will. trump, do you think impose thomasville, he stop trade was as, as soon as he comes into office. well i think it's certainly something to fight roles and, and some kind in position of the tower. see,

he will try to engage in the, the, the logic question is something he did talk about in his campaign trial was introducing a universal tire against full countries. whether that's a 5 percent with 10 percent tariff. and that's a change from what he did at the last time he was an office way. it was more like bilateral trade was, you know, with china, with mexico and so on. so if he was introduced as universal tire for, gets the old countries, then that wouldn't be very, very negative overall. so that's for me, the, the big thing is it going to do that mike bass case is instead, he will have used terrorists as a weapon against countries you know, to try to get advantage us trade deals with different countries around the world, which does introduce uncertainty as, as a mentioned, but the biggest risk would be, well if we watch the universal terrace, which would take us back to what we saw in 1930 when we had that smooth uh, fully active. which coincided with a great depression. debra,

what would that mean for china's economy in, in particular, as a, as precarious as, as it currently is? well, i think it's a tract, if the trips were truly universal, actually the damage would be relatively modest. unless you're in the united states at which point everything suddenly became significantly more expensive. but if it was universal, and if it was even then basically everyone else is on the same playing field, entering the us market. so i don't, i don't think that that's the problem. but i think the challenge is that it's unlikely to be a universal policy, which means that there will be opportunities for adjustments depending on country or market or product or even company itself. and so that on, even this of application i think, is very damaging and creates all kinds of challenges for the rest of the world who will have to navigate increasing complexity, increasing difficulty in doing trade. and once you've declared that the is an

acceptable use of the terrorist or acceptable use of trade policy, then you also give license to others to do something similar i. e, we basically taking the rulebook up the last 70 plus years, thrown it out the window and said, do whatever you would like. it's a sort of lot the jungle. and i think that is extremely damaging to all of us, especially for asia, which is very export dependents. so if you're export driven and exports are becoming increasingly difficult. compliance costs are through the roof. that is really going to put some pressure on economic growth in to 2025. debra. but we'll talk about the, about the you in, in a, in a few minutes, which of course has got its own problems. but if from does what do you think he might do or what we all think he might do, he's threatened to do it. why wouldn't you carry through with it? if he's thoughts, some sort of time of war with china before us perhaps? do you think to, to, to make friends at least economically speaking,

more with with europe? i think it's possible. i mean, i think one of the, there are so many challenges we have with an incoming trump administration, but one of them that i think i see over and over again in the last few weeks is difficult. these individuals have in imagining an alternative universe that we're about to enter. and so you would have said, if i'd asked you a year ago or something, you know, are china and europe going to become best friends you but it's, of course not. i'm not suggesting that's going to happen in 2025, but my point is that there are now options on the table as we had in to 2025. and beyond that, i think would have been challenging to imagine even just a very short time ago and, and so i, 6, certainly within europe there is a rethink happening on their relationships with united states relationships within europe with each other also relationships with china. and there is a lot across tensions between those special european economies that are

tightly dependent on china, those which are less dependent on china. those which have to think very hard about what is the block do is a group. what do they do is individual countries? there are a lot of complexities that are, that are going to create a lot of challenges for officials, certainly. and also for companies heading into 2025, when the rules are changing so quickly, they gotta set reset the result of a tariff war. could be that, that the people feeling the pain, the real playing could be american consumers who suddenly i find that, that paying a lot more for goods. how, how damage includes president trump a tracking target for be for the american economy. i think it could be very damaging indeed. i think we'd like you to see inflation go up as for interest rates, go up. chrysler, it'll aggregate. ringback many of the inequalities in the us, and i think it would be associated with very,

very severe disruptions. and it was compounded by his threat to remove undocumented workers busy, rapid increases in construction costs and food costs and services costs like of li, catera and other cat compounding. that's for the increasing interest rates. right. so i think the, as long as the fed remains independent, it's going to be very, very difficult in that environment to reduce interest rates and stimulate growth in the us. i also think that is not asian that's most vulnerable to tires because actually 70 percent of asian trade is with in asia. it's ready. so some countries like the u. k which are trying to diversify increasing in the us market of the commodity exports is that will be particularly vulnerable to a tire as well. so that is, is a big lori pillow. why is your lagging behind both the us and china and tons of competitiveness?

what does it need to do to catch up kind of catch up or is that possible? ready last? well, there's a lot going on in your privacy fund to mentally, if we just focus on germany, which is the suppose it's what the launch is calling me with in europe. and the star key is being the us of the leading or the engine. but for your us, and what we're seeing with germany is that fundamentally is the whole business model economic model has broken. so historically it's model was essentially to input cheap energy from russia, manufacturer and diesel petrol calls, and then explode that to the rest of the world. and full talks about a business model has broken down the longer do they have cheap energy on top of that. germany no longer is the dominant. so ultimate to in the world in the sense that the world's moved onto the electric cause. and jeremy last name that so it is a fundamental re shape needed in the drum, the drum, an economy. and so generally, lags the novel pull your down and roll. so that task is quite large,

full for your to do something. and a key thing will be full for them to think about that cheap energy sources. another aspect of this is to shift the industrial focus off of your, especially germany, away from the traditional also set to another aspect of this is that they'll need to think more about being more physically active in general and think that to investments. um overall, and that's been a big challenge full for the your teams as we've seen in the that's a part of 2024 with the german government. and the french government has to have full and different full ways and being unable to implement fiscal policies to, to what they had planned to. uh, so they got a lot of challenges. um and i think that 2025 will be an important test full for your the below is the political well the to some out these challenges. it's

a great question. i think that there is a will to try to improve the conditions off the cold media verle. the challenge you have in all these countries is that you really need to york in wide policy to, to make things really improved. instead, what you're seeing on the political side is each country is moving in inwards into itself. so there's both and instead of our approach for each country where there's in financing, winning frauds within jeremy. and so that means that there's a lack of the, your team vision, and that's a big, big, big, big problem. so, so i think while there is a will for change in each country, and the nature of that debate is such that it's preventing the most viable way for them to improve which is in your pain white's solution. deborah, how, how does asia view europe's sluggishness? right, right now, what's the, what's the view from the,

i think one of the challenges that we have overall. and one of the reasons why i think donald trump's entry back into power in january is so dangerous is that we have a global system that is really not in great shape. either. we have very few political leaders in asia or in europe, or anywhere frankly, with the stature to push through potentially challenging domestic level reforms, let alone coordinate some kind of international consistent response, or at least even within a smaller group of countries. i think it's very hard to see who is going to be able to push for some kind of stabilizing measure, some kind of coordinated response. and i think that is a huge challenge. and it's not just about what europe does or doesn't do. it's not just about what different asian markets do or don't do. it's really sort of global phenomenon. and that's what makes, i think this period we're entering. so problem attic. this is the one final. what

on, on europe, what are, what are, what are the main challenges that you see for your going forward here? i'm with, with donald trump, back in the white house. to what extent we're all of us, not just you are a but the whole world have to work differently. the 1st thing to say about europe is that you cannot make model that your opinions have chosen is one which i think they broadly comfortable with, which is relatively short working weeks long holidays and very strong social safety nets. cat health education launch the free in many countries. that model, of course, is what is behind read should be slower, grow, so you are pins, have made a trade off that a once in a way of life. they ones, the nature of the environment of work life balance, which is i think, different to that in many other countries. i mean they don't asia and even in the us, i'm back drives. i think i'm the underlying level of the growth. then you'd have in

other places, whether that sustainable, whether it will have to change is the question. of course it's supposed to be mens political tension within countries. so i think is likely to continue on that path. i think your opinions of broadly comfortable with the way of life i've chosen and as a biggest share of the european economy services, which count randy be speeded up by a i like cat, like, hospitality like leisure. um, we move from, well, the manufacturing essentially to massages meals and medical care. when you have very low probability of a i being the drive of very much more rapid was it cut sites of integration within your is absolutely the key of the capital market integration. the sorts of things that mario drug is recommended, unnecessary, and we are seeing that worked out. but i know, let's think that you will have a manufacturing revival of a major thoughts or

a revival in its growth rates to well over 2 percent. i think we have to get comfortable in europe and that's a contracting what was a contracting population? separate capital inc, i'm still increases if you any growth at 2 percent, and i think that's the future for europe. okay, i'm going to ask you now to to gaze into your crystal balls and, and give us your predictions for 2025. i know it's an impossible task. i'm not going to hold you to anything that you say below. we haven't even discussed energy prices yet. i did give us your view of what we can expect. generally in 2025. it also of course pay the total to to installation of energy prices. what, what's gonna happen to those next? you as well, i think on the energy price side, i actually think energy prices will be relatively stable over the course of 2025. 0 if any think i think that as a risk they could end up in noah over the course of the and that's mainly premise on the if you look at the mouth supply that's coming on the market of the cost of

2025 is relatively high. um i also think that will be stuck, disclose in some key economies, whether it's china or in your upset, the demand will be less as well. and i also think while we do have the chair political sanctions, my sense is that they wouldn't necessarily escalate in a way that will disturb key oil produces deborah, what's your view of of 2025, particularly when it comes to asian economies. where will new sources of growth come from in 2025 or is this year set to be a pretty more than one foot for asian economies? i'm losing audio. i think you are asking me about like 2025 protection. hopefully it's good on your end, why audio technology is always, you know, on, even as we can see from my audio today. and so i do think that there are other challenges ahead besides those which we've talked about, including technology issues. climate remains on the agenda despite all of this

difficulties we've seen on expected physical battle conflict, you know, across border conflict. that is still a problem. still having any quality, i mean there's a number of things that are a challenge for 2025. and again, it is going to be a very unusual, very busy year where 2025 on new sources of growth kind of come from deborah. well, that's a tough question, isn't it? i would love to say from lots of green shoots, it's going to be fantastic, but it is hard to see where the pockets of opportunity will be this in 2025. i think because we're going to have such disruption and it's going to be happening. so quickly, i'm not seeing this time around, at least with the trunk to where those growth opportunities will be for sure. because the, it's like an earthquake is hit and now we have older earthquakes and other sen armies. and we have to try to figure out how that all comes together to deliver

opportunities in some places. and so identifying ahead of time where those will be is challenging, more challenging than normal. oh, i know in once it wants to come in, i might one as well. and what one sees depends very much on where one stands and my sense that new growth is going to come from as a growing at 5 percent on average. the yeah, is astounding. the good by historical comparisons and many countries nature will be growing at more than that. so the answer is asia, the 2nd tour of on so i think is in so some areas of biotech, particularly medical devices and medicine. fantastic advances. there's terrific advances as well on renewables and energy. the price of, of energy is coming down dramatically on renewables and these and i think we will see a i leading to very rapidly advances in some other areas as well over the coming year . so i think it's going to be

a brian. yeah. despite this reverberations of uncertainty. lots in the us. i think the uncertainties of that from full generates on getting to make it a very difficult investments environment. and i think europe is also very uncertain . they find that was sitting in asia and i think to some extent where you're sitting in the gulf of middle east, but it's certainly the m right. some could top out of the middle east. i think it's a pretty bright future. okay. and 2025. anyway. i've got about a minute left on, on the discussion i just wanted to, we, we haven't discussed the globalization. i told you to see that trend continuing from 2025. yes. it's, it's not so much di, globalization as a very rapid transformation of globalization, much more asian globalization. so it's drug lines ation alive and well in asia, i see the trends formation. digital drop, the globalization is still growing very fast. the investment flows in some regions

are holding up, but we certainly going to be see a restructuring of globalization. and unfortunately, they won't be seeing as well as a collapse of the globalization of cooperation. so in multilateralism, the development of co operative solutions, the risk we face is collapsing very rapidly. that means more risk, more systemic risk. expect not only cyber attempt sliver containments of climate change, but also pandemic. a conflict of the shocks, if you don't have confirmation, that risk rises very rapidly. so that's the most warring aspect of the trauma, informational globalization of that, we must stand that it's been fascinating wishing you will happy healthy and prosper us 2025. thanks for being with us on counting the cost. thank you. thank you. and that's our show for this week. if you'd like to give us your predictions for 2025 or comment on the discussion you've just seen. i'm at a sending an on x try to remember to use the hash tag

h a c t c. or you can drop us a line caching the cost of a 0. don't net is our email address as always, suspension of your own lineup alger 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page that you'll find. individual reports links, even in tot episodes for you to catch up on the fence. it's for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian said again for the team here in the thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next doing the combination of violent wars and the heavy rain creating a rest of the for more suffering for palestinians asking questions. what are the challenges in helping girls that are seeing this with in east conference, we're pushing for the extra really, really big we see in this generative an in depth coverage. i'll just say it was teens on the ground. when you closer to the heart of the story, a unique perspectives,

what could my community be gaining if we weren't spending money on all of those bonds? killing it asses. and as i said, 11 on, on her voices the world has turned its back on. so that our lives to match so many people in math are just as much as any other connect with our community and be part of the conversation. we feel very unsafe because of the 2nd 12000 things. they don't see the need and then trying to appease the people on social media, the stream on out to 0 as natural dishonest as increased concern for the planning. and people across the globe are taking action times running filed at the lower end. they've come in germany environmental campaigns. so facing the rocks of authorities and in some cases being labeled extremes for using direct action. protests people empower, investigates climate correct down on out to 0,

the colleges with the the flow and the pocket. this is the news outline though, coming up in the next 60 minutes is where the attacks intensify across costs are coming at least 25 listing ins overnight. children in the so called save so, and if i'm a wasi among the victims is what month since the fall of the aside regime in syria,

we take a look at the challenges ahead for the new administration, los angeles to class a stage of emergency to tackle a fast moving.