it's you beyond the headlines of the country. if you're not chose, you're not entitled to the same sense of rights, award winning force or funding. my brutal meets renowned out a, standing in human rights, defend a lot about the whole young generation. they have centered palestine as part of their identity as such a innovation that twice the defense world refrain on a jersey to hope so. running high that a safe spot deal for garza might be weeks this time towards continue to end the fighting and release the captives in exchange for the palestinian prisoners. but what would make an agreement possible now, and would it hold this is inside stored the hello that or i can change phase. negotiate is here. in dough hall appeared to be

able to bring to breaking a deadlock in c spot towards the end 15 months of israel's war on gossip. and his final foreign policy speech. the outgoing us president joe biden hinted to the deal was eminent, is writing media linked some elements of the plan, and while the exact details are on clear, biden himself, this is based on the proposal he put forward in june 2020 full of the time the president cooled as a roadmap to ensuring c spot in 3 phases. that proposal went home to get the backing of the un security council later that month. so it was the growing sense of optimism warranted this time. and just how much of an outsized role is us president elect donald trump, having on these talks, i had it was an old gratian next week. lots to some of those questions without panel of guessing about event. but 1st this report from michael apple, the with less than a week left in office us president joe biden used his final foreign policy speech

to deliver this message and the more retreat israel. i'm off or in the brink proposal laid out in detail months ago. finally coming to fruition. do we have a structure which free the hostages hall to friday provide security israel and allow us to significantly search you mandatory assistance to the palestinians. such a ceasefire would hold more than 15 months of college in the gaza strip. where is really ground and air attacks have killed more than 46500 palestinians. the majority of them, women and children. at the end of may 2024. we're biting, unveiled a 3 stage ceasefire proposal that was adopted by the un security council nearly 2 weeks later. it's believed that same proposal lays the foundation for the deal

presently on the table. but move in 7 months later, it's come at the cost of an additional $10000.00 palestinian lights. what's changed? the national threshold to be more than the american president. this doubled it's 2 presidents now working of the category, foreign ministry, picking up on that very point. we especially appreciate those of both the by the investigation and the incoming trump administration. in the end, the end the talks in the past couple of weeks in the past si fi talks of sold for months with no indication of the lights up in is really bombardment and besiege meant more recently of northern gauze. they were more attacks on monday, killing and enjoying dozens of palestinians, despite the prospects of a ceasefire. but israel prime minister benjamin netanyahu, and whose cabinets are facing even more pressure,

is far ride coalition partners against threatening to collapses government. if a deal with hamas has reached the full palestinians under bombardment, though the deal couldn't come soon enough. buffalo walked off and we were sleeping when i heard a big explosion, my brother's wife is new born baby were killed together with his 4 year old daughter. we would hope to wake up the good news of the ceasefire, but instead it was a tragedy of those trump has threatened all. hell will break out if the is really kept is on not released before his return to the white house next week. many palestinians may argue there were already living through it. the mike level, l g, a 0 for the inside story, the well, let's discuss all this further with a panel of guests today. i'm in athens, we have ha ha, who specializes in global security and middle east and politics. the role united

services institute for defense and security studies that said, love them and tell them eve, i don't think task a form is really diplomat who also served as an advisor to the form is really president shimon peres, and in karachi, and practiced on eyeball shaheed ahmed, a senior diplomatic correspondent, huff post. he's currently like watching a book on the, by the administration, and cause a thank you all of you for joining us. let's go to athens 1st ha, from what you've read, what you can see what you're hearing. how close are we to a deal? ok. well, thank you very much chance for having me on the program. i think we're close to getting through phase one of this deal. i do caution people from thinking that phase one automatically leads to phase 2. it's about to go. he's the phase 3 that they'll be a withdrawal of the idea from gaza. so i'm very cautious about calling this a ceasefire deal. i think we're still in the phase where this is

a hostage negotiation because really i'm quite cynical about the notion that we're going to see a withdrawal of the idea of from gaza, which would make it an actual ceasefire. where it an end to fighting is actually intended as opposed to attempt report. most of i do think that were close. uh there were some reports um, literally earlier on today that indicated that nothing yahoo was still dragging his feet. um, but i think that that will be something that still happens over the next few days. um it would not talking about going beyond that point. i think today tomorrow i think were quite flips. are all your assessment on it. the catch all foreign ministry spokesman said this is the closest yet, but i've heard before the deal was eminent. we've been here before your assessment on behalf of the several times james from us officials from the countries and instructions to serve as mediation. i think the reason it seems that we are so

closed is just a bit of a ticking clock off the us presidential transition on monday, the 28th of january. right, so president biden and his team have a real incentive to get this done prior to leaving office, which they have to hand over the rain surprises and from i'm simultaneously present from a subscribes to this mad matters here. your final says why he said, i will mean come off whenever enough be a price. if that isn't it to you by the time i present. so i think those 2 factors are creating a time crunch, and pressure. all their thoughts said, i think the very real concerns about is really commitments, domestic, you know, political issues of, of the weather. these really class and cabinet will approve this deal. that's the big fact that you and then that's the question of how will these negotiations, how actual hostage and put in prison exchange as well. so i do think that the charts of good still full of thought, but my assessment, having told to us officials throughout this period, including the previous cruise,

we are truly close that enough it for how long do you think that prime minister netanyahu once this deal or as you just heard from mac, but is it the president presents the very soon a of the office coming to office integration of president trump, this change things. he never wanted this deal. i mean this deal was offered in march and again in may of 2024. and again in july of 2024 and 3 times. 1 he refused, he was reluctant. even renee have done this on the plan that he himself presented to present and by and by made a big deal out of it which led to nothing. but it was all clear that mister nathaniel was not interested in a deal. now let me sort of try it on you. like with the, with the things that my 2 colleagues this and then i agree with. oh, there are 2 chronological fault lines. antonio's decision making. the 1st was the

1st half of 2024. he did not want to cease fire. he began a war that was a just war and, and accepted, accepted and acceptable by these really probably. and indeed, in the 1st 2 months by the world. but then he decided to prolong the war for no apparent political reason without any political objectives aligned with those military um goals. um he did that in order to distance himself of the calamity of october 7. uh, 2023. the 2nd full line is the 2nd half of 2024. when he started a house down to the us election and found specifically july of 2024, when the president biden withdrew his candidacy. at that point, mr. new time you i was go to date was the tuesday of january 20th, 2025 in alteration date with the hope that i think he will regret. but nonetheless,

half the time. the hope that mr. trump would would. so i gave you a lengthy answer to a very short enough specific question. now he was never interested in this deal, but now he's in a situation and he is cornered in a situation rather where he cannot refuse. ha, let me just re wanting to get back to may because the come towards if they steal up in in place for many months. president biden propose this deal. he said that the time it wasn't his riley proposal. it even got a dual spike. the un security council, but it wasn't, it was really proposal. it was one that was to paid out by these riley side. and yet president biden has never ever called out these riley's has the on this. ok. so um, before i answer that question, does this one thing i'd like to correct? at least from my point of view, i don't think the door and garza was recognized as a just or by that. it's nice community. i think that was

a lot of sympathy for israel after october 7th, but i don't think that translated into support for the the war and gaza. which of course has suffered tremendously not simply in the past you know, a year. but even in the 1st couple of months after october 7th, but that says, you know, one issue for us to perhaps show up at the moment when it comes to the deal that you mention, and by then this commitment to it. and here's the thing. i don't think that there's any doubt that over the course of the past 15 months, the by ministration would have preferred for the nothing yahoo government to proceed in a different direction on multiple occasions. that's not really the topic of debate for me. the question is, what were they willing to do about it? and the answer to that question is exceedingly. this will a, when it comes to the, the leverage that the vitamin restriction has had over the, is rabies over the past 15 months. and it's being very clear,

they've been very unwilling to use that leverage whether at the un security council, whether in terms of providing financial support, the provision of arms, public uh, uh, statements you know, they've been very, very reluctant to actually use the leverage. so it doesn't really matter if they would have preferred a different route and well, i'm always, matthews is what are the, what were they willing to do about it? and they weren't willing to do anything about it, quite frankly. which is why we've seen the last 15 months on. ready and the way that they have, so i looked up the desk, so in may when president biden 1st proposed this deal, it was 36000 people. now it stands at over 46000 people. so you could argue that 10000 people, mainly women and children who didn't have to die, and hockey team higher than that, that's actually a bus study. and a lot of that recently, they've said that it's probably open 65000. right?

so in my reporting, i think it picks up on a lot of what alone and need to talk about whether it had been periods. i mean, officials that i have spoken to at the highest levels of decision making, washington has that one month into the wall. that was already a critical mass of painting inside the, by the administration saying, how do we take this differently, right? sort of already you by the time you've reached the truth and kind of late november, the could've been taking different steps. i don't think way even talking about 15000 potentially affordable taps, but really talking about all sorts of 2013000. and that does include, is really hostages. who could have been saved in that period that does include the question of what kinds allegations and indictments that you've not seen. right. so as a consequence of the, by the ministrations choices, not only what i believe that's, that was avoidable sign in, which was the class multiple times, public health crises. but you've had a situation where even by the old metrics of standing by israel being the us in the

world as a global leader, they have done years worth of damage, right? the us and israel at the i, c, g at the i, p. c. going to be fighting what kinds obligations for yes, it's called decades and the kind of damage to that global reputation. that's styling the relationships that's immeasurable. so, you know, when we talked about, could this deal have been achieved and mean could the feel have been achieved in july? i, i agree with alone that by the time present, titan's football fate was sealed, it was very unlikely that yahoo was giving it to him. lot of this really depends on, on the website design administration. what would cheating this beam and the way to both fish? what, right, what are you aware of how that the walk rates and let me know is that the never have been realistic about what they could have done different me on that so no right. well, let saying that on the test of a deal that seeing it in this trial and defiant ways that i can really, it will be the point of those. as you said, to all we get into such a road,

it is very positive piece, which has also been michael. i know you'd be very clear about what you think, but i'd like to use you for a moment please to tell us what is right. the public opinion says about this to gauge what is riley public opinion is on this a do these right? the public and your view. see the purpose of this ongoing goal because the how much leadership of the, the key leaders who are being killed. you know, y'all send, well, kill 16th of october, as well as know how they're killed. so the 1st of july do is really see a point in this will going on. no. but, but here's the thing, it's, it's for you, it's more than you want. then my initial no um, inconsistent polls of a clear majority of his role is usually over 65 percent. want a hostage deal that includes or is accompanied by a ceasefire, meaning the ends of the war. they do not accept mister nathaniel. i was hallowed

statements in cliches, about eradicating, come off in the blue writing. come awesome, evaluating come us and total victory, etc, etc. why is it new ox? because because people are still they, these really side guys enjoy mindset hasn't really changed since october 7, 2023. people are shell shocked. they are devastated. they are agonizing. and they choose to live in denial of what's going on. and god, you know, the, one of the time when people said, well, these really public doesn't know what's going on and gods are coming to you, you, you forget, i'll just hear you have cnn. you have m as nbc, you have the bbc, you have sky news, you have a um, uh, the internet of course. um, anyone who was interested could have no one exactly what's being done in garza and ask themselves a legitimate question. okay. i believe it is a just war. however, what are we doing there in the last year? ok, 2 months, 3 months from now what?

there are no political goals. every time the us published a post war, guys, a framework. and i understand my understanding is that secretary state data um has any blinking is about to rehash it. really re litigate this today or in the speech that he's scheduled to get every time that came up. israel either dismissed it or the right it is, or just uh, i refused to engage it. so these really public does not see any reason to keep on the warrant. and majority of as early as this one is over 70 percent, 70. not only ascribed responsibility and accountability to mr and the time now for what did happen on october 7th, but actually think that he is being driven by expedient political considerations. and i am a personal political calculus rather than national security. um and so the public will accept this deal. i also think it'll pass the cabinet. it m m m,

it's mess it if i'm um saving you a question, but that's not the point. the point is what kind of political turmoil will it lead to? and i agree with what i just said, that the very outset of our discussion the, the, the idea of the change one will automatically lead to face to it's flawed because i think most of the time now i don't know this. i think mr. nathaniel is, is, is winking and bluffing as his little trout nationalist, frankly, lunatics in the college. and i'm telling them guys, there's no need for this drama there that the ceasefire will not hold, give it to 3 weeks. come on, stop, stop making a big deal out of it. and so the public is gonna, we're going to have this discussion again, 3 weeks from now on the frame. okay. ha, i mean, you mentioned at the beginning is alone said phase one would be helpful. perhaps because this isn't public, but we've all been reading leaks from it just explaining to us there are 3 proposed

phases. in fact, the rule was up in 3 proposed phases in the compos of this deal. just explain to us, you were understanding of what happens in each phase by simply force if you can. and so again, we haven't got these details of confirmed yet, but the 1st phase of the deal. um, which last type thing for about uh uh, 2 to 3 weeks is about hostage and prisoner releases. of course. um, it's probably best that we simply call them all captive because i think that they're all hostages, and they're all prisoners. and, but that these ratings will be released on the policy. and this will literally send, they'll be, they'll be sorta all to nations between them. you know, a certain number and then a certain number and a certain number and certain number. but during that 1st phase, and there's not going to be any withdrawal of the idea from gaza. it's envisaged at all. my what i think is going to be confirmed is the reopening

of that off during the 1st phase or the end of the 1st phase. and then what is in visit just on paper, is that in the 2nd phase of 1st, so it'd be more hosted releases and present early uses and kept the releases. yes. but they'll also supposed to be more of a re deployment of the i, b s a, the, the full list of any withdrawal isn't really envisaged until you get to stage 2 and 3. and this is why i frankly think that you know, this, what i wanna mention about the wing can go to the far right on the right wing by. that's and you know, i think that there's also something else that's going on here because this reading media is also reporting of the last couple of days. i think it was 24 hours. actually that's nothing you know himself is received. of course, these are unconfirmed reports, but i think that the relevant has received assurances from the incoming trump administration that if they want to return to bombing goes and considering the war

in a few weeks time before getting into stage 2 or stage 3, then the trump invitation will back them and considering the amount lots of permanent ties. ation that we've seen of these really positions throughout garza, the increased the military infrastructure that has been put across the 3rd street, the widening of the not setting even the car. the, for example, in both directions. okay. the appointment of a, quote unquote military government or for guys have very similar to the same that exists in the west bank. but the, the, the, in incredibly explicit desire of a very significant portions of these really political spectrum. and these really public to actually set tools in parts of gaza. i find it very, very difficult to see that there. all of this pressure is going to be put to one side in favor of an idea of withdrawal on the country. i don't think that there's

been anything stated by the not to now government. and frankly, by these really political spectrum in general that suggests that they are interested in affordable for withdrawal. that they're interested in the palestinian authority government and gaza again. and a resolution to the posting is really conflict once in full. okay. a lot on the, on the subject that we've just been talking about about the release is by both sides. my understanding is the formula and it has been for some time is the t palestinians for one is really is that your understanding and all they gotta be any restrictions of who can be released. i mean, i think the prominent political thing goes like one bug booty. it is either $31.00 or $1.00 to $30.00 or $50.00 to $1.00. it is not clear i have seen, and i heard from someone in the negotiating team that both biggers have been uh uh, discussed um,

look by 2024 um numbers or data. uh, there are about 2100 palestinians incarcerated or jailed. and issue obviously the list includes many who have been convicted of terror activity were direct involvement in active tear. in fact, a saudi newspaper reported today. i've had one, how much is the initial demands? was the release of uh um mr. sitting wires by the i don't know if that is true and i don't know if that is only symbolic or i don't know if that is a bargaining chip. but yeah, my understanding is that they're going to be $33.00 is really hostages released in the 1st phase, that the ha popped about the 2nd phase, which will supposedly be negotiated to the 1st 16 days of the 40 to day process. i

don't know where they've reached these numbers, but they are what they are. they will negotiate the other members. and in, in, in the quid pro, quote, for every one of these really hostage is going to be either 30 or 50. it could be, and this is me speculating that it depends on whether or not and i know this is uh, uh, very uh, you know, grows to say, but it could be that uh the, the numbers change whether or not the hostages alive or dead. okay. let me bring in act up because your currently interrupt you, you spend most of your time in washington dc looking at us diplomacy. i was always told by the americans to certainly have a one administration at the time. and yet the negotiations here in doha seem to have a representative from the buying administration and donald trump's invoice. steve, what caused an invoice for the president is not even president yet. but i think

from the bind administrations perspective, they are trying very hard, james to create the impression that it is monday ministration, but it is continuous, which is really quite saw advert. painted to think about inseparably. right. i mean, the said that donald trump is the creative trap, 12 or something of value. so if you really want to be associated with that 1st, 2nd, what editing, negotiate and whatever. all the same for the family details prep the good bands that something is going to credit. right. so i think that's a real set by defining team to kind of piggyback on trumps pressure. but then not going to in the long run, i think get the credit that looking for it. yeah, i think the, the relevant part of, of that puts in, of 2 administrations has to do with also the fragility of the ceiling when it comes . that's the by the administration has while the have a bunch that policy on god that the please the have been really worried is the

occupied westbank. and i think that's where the web you need to be looking to next as to what the track and the steel the truck administration. as advice on the pilot, as of no, that could really empower these alternation, this filing specialist folks in the west bank who could escalate tensions. and i think that's where this question of 2 immunizations is so important, because you could say quickly see a president, trump take away the sanctions on the setlist. bivens and introduce employee intentions, that he has a point to people who are evangelical, really hard line. israel supporters and i think that's the real see, right. so while the buys administration is projecting the idea. oh, it's a bad west sort of just putting money ministration to another. no, they will be a real policy shift in the next 2 to 3 weeks. that will probably in same situation in huge we've, i don't think the bible team will have a great answer to that given the way that they have enabled, trumped in this for up to the 3. ok. thank you very much. to all guess today on inside story, ha, how do you?

i don't think has an act boss, shaheed, or ahmed out as it was. team of reporters and camera operators are all in the ground in garza, we have coverage around the talk with detailed analysis on our website, which is 0. don't com for further discussion of that, but you can go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you'll find this on the x at a j inside story for me. change based on the team here in doha. please stay safe and well bye. for now, the after daring political come back and the decisive election when donald trump is set to return to the white house. joining us for an in depth look at trans policies, how they'll affect americans and the world from 2nd term, analogies here. deep in the brazilian amazon,

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