confrontation turned into a political flash point and the read 19 debates about immigration, religion, and the identity. the full report. i'm still john mccarthy and who to comes on. i will just say around hope so. running high that a c spot deal for gaza might be weeks this time towards continue to end the fighting and release the captives in exchange with palestinian prisoners. but what would make an agreement possible now and would've told this is inside story, the hello that right. and james pays negotiators here in dough hall appeared to be able to bring to breaking deadlock in c spot towards the end 15 months of israel's war on gossip. in his final foreign policy speech,

the outgoing us president joe biden hinted to the deal was eminent. is writing media linked some elements of the plan and while the exact details are on clear by themselves. so this is based on the proposal he put forward in june 2020 full of the time. the president cooled as a roadmap to ensuring c spot in 3 phases. that proposal went home to get the backing of the un security council later that month. so it was the growing sense of optimism warranted this time. and just how much of an outsized role is us, president elect, donald trump, having all these talks ahead of his new gratian next week. lots to some of those questions with our panel of guessing environment. but 1st, this report from michael apple with less than a week left in office. us president joe biden used his final foreign policy speech to deliver this message. and the more of a trade is right, i'm us are in the break. a proposal laid out in detail,

months ago. finally, coming to fruition deal we restructured free the hostages halt the party provide security israel and allow us to significantly search you mandatory assistance to the palestinians such as sci fi would hold to more than 15 months of college in the gaza strip. where is really ground and air attacks have killed more than 46500 palestinians. the majority of them women and children. at the end of may 2024, we're biting, unveiled a 3 stage ceasefire proposal that was adopted by the un security council. nearly 2 weeks later, it's believed that same proposal lays the foundation for the deal presently on the table. but move in 7 months later, it's come at the cost of an additional $10000.00 palestinian lights. what's changed?

the national threshold were to be more exact. the american president, this doubled, it's still presidents now working of the category foreign ministry, picking up on that very point, we especially appreciate those of both the by the investigation and the incoming trump administration. in the end, the end the talks in the past couple of weeks in the past si fi talks of sold for months with no indication of the lights up. and these really bombardment and besiege meant more recently of northern gaza. they were more attacks on monday, telling and enjoying dozens of palestinians, despite the prospects of a seaside. but in israel, prime minister benjamin netanyahu and whose cabinets are facing even more pressure, is far ride coalition partners against threatening to collapses government. if a deal with hamas is reached for palestinians under bombardment,

the deal couldn't come soon enough. buffalo gulf and we were sleeping when i heard a big explosion. my brother's wife is newborn baby. we're kills together with his 4 year old daughter. we would hope to wake up the good news of the ceasefire, but instead it was a tragedy of those trump has threatened all. hell will break out if the is really kept is on not released before his return to the white house next week. many palestinians may all do. there were already living through it. the mike level al jazeera, fully inside story, the well, let's discuss all this further with, i'll probably guess today i'm in athens, we have ha, heavier, who specializes in global security and middle east and politics. the role united services institute for defense and security studies that said, love them and tell them, leave alone think task a form is ready to come out. who also served as an advisor to the full. but it's

really president shimon peres. and in karachi and focused on eyeball shaheed ahmed, a senior diplomatic correspondent huff post. he's coming like watching a book on the by the administration, and garza, thank you all of you for joining us. let's go to athens 1st ha. from what you've read, what you can see, what you're hearing, how close are we to a deal? ok. well thank you very much chance for having me on the program. i think we're close to getting through phase one of the best deal. i do caution people from thinking that phase one automatically leads to phase 2 of them not to goes to phase 3 that they'll be a withdrawal of the idea from gaza. so i'm very cautious about calling this a ceasefire deal. i think we're still in the phase where this is a hostage negotiation because really i'm quite cynical about the notion that we're going to see a withdrawal of the idea of from gaza, which would make it an actual ceasefire,

where it didn't end to fighting is actually intended as opposed to attempt report, most of i do think that were close. uh there were some reports um, literally earlier on today that indicated that nothing yahoo was still dragging his feet. um, but i think that that will be something that still happens over the next few days. um it, we're not talking about going beyond that point. i think today, tomorrow i think we're quite flex. all right, well your assessment on it of the cutoff foreign ministry spokesman said this is the closest yet, but i've heard before the deal was eminent. we've been here before your assessment on behalf of the several times james from us officials from the countries and instructional service media to i think the reason it seems that we are so close. it's just a bit of a ticking clock off the us kind of central transition on monday, the 28th of january. right, so president biden and his team have

a real incentive to get this done prior to leaving office, which they have to hand over the rain suppressing from i'm simultaneously present from a subscribe to to this mad monetary a fire and a says why? he said, i will mean come off whenever enough be a price if that isn't a deal by the time i present. so i think those 2 factors, ok, reading and time of punch and pressure. all their thoughts said, i think the very real concerns about is really commitments, domestic, you know, political issues over the weather. these really class and cabinet will approve this deal. that's the big fact that you and then that's the question of how will these negotiations, how actual hostage and put in prison exchange as well. so i do think that the charts have good still full of thought, but my assessment, having told to us officials throughout this period, including the previous cruise, we are truly close that another for how long do you think that prime minister netanyahu once this deal, or as you just heard from akbar,

is it the president presence the very soon a of the office coming to office integration of president trump. this change things . he never wanted this deal. i mean, this deal was offered in march and again in may of 2024. and again in july of 2024 and, and 3 times he refused. he was reluctant, even renamed on this, on the plan that he himself presented to present and by and by made a big deal out of it, which led to nothing. but it was all clear that mister nathaniel was not interested in a deal. now let me sort of try it out and you like with the things that my 2 colleagues, this and i agree with cost. there are 2 chronological fault lines. antonio's decision making. the 1st was the 1st half of 2024. he did not want to cease fire. he began a war that was a just war and, and accepted, accepted and acceptable by these really probably,

and indeed in the 1st 2 months by the world. but then he decided to prolong the war for no apparent political reason without any political objectives aligned with those military um goals. um he did that in order to distance himself from the calamity, october 7th of 2023. the 2nd full line is the 2nd half of 2024. when he started a house down to the us election, and very specifically, july or 2024, when the president biden withdrew his candidacy. at that point, mr. mid time he, i was go to date was the tuesday of january 20th, 2025 in all the ration day with the hope that i think he will regret but nonetheless, have the time to hope that mr. trump would would. so i gave you a lengthy answer to a very short enough specific question. now he was never interested in this deal,

but now he's in a situation and he is cornered in a situation rather where he cannot refuse. ha, let me just re wanting to bit back to may because the come towards if they steal up in in place for many months. president biden proposed this deal. he said that the time it wasn't his riley proposal. it even go to the door by the un security council, but it wasn't, it was really proposal. it was one that was to paid out by these riley side. and yet president biden has never ever called out these, right. these has the on this so before i answer that question, that's just one thing i'd like to correct, at least from my point of view, i don't think the door and garza was recognized as a just or by the it's not community the. i think there was a lot of sympathy for israel after october 7th, but i don't think that translated into support for the, the war and gaza. which of course has suffered tremendously,

not simply in the past you know, a year. but even in the 1st couple of months after october 7th, but that's just, you know, one issue for us to perhaps show up at the moment when it comes to the deal that you mention, and by then this commitment to it. and here's the thing. i don't think that there's any doubt that over the course of the past 15 months, the bite ministration would have preferred for the nuts in yahoo government to proceed in a different direction on multiple occasions. that's not really the topic of debate for me. the question is, what were they willing to do about it? and the answer to that question is exceedingly the tool a, when it comes to the, the leverage that the vitamin restriction has had over the, is rabies. over the past 15 months. it's been very clear, they've been very unwilling to use that leverage whether at the un security council, whether in terms of providing financial support, the provision of arms, public uh,

statements. you know, they've been very, very reluctant to actually use the leverage. so it doesn't really matter if they would have preferred a different route and well, i'm always matthews's, what are the, what were they willing to do about it? and they weren't willing to do anything about it, quite frankly. which is why we've seen the last 15 months and. ready and the way that they have, so i looked up the desk, so in may when president biden 1st proposed this deal, it was 36000 people. now it's tons of over 46000 people. so you could argue that 10000 people, mainly women and children who didn't have to die. and i'll give the team higher than that. that's actually a best study. and a lot of that recently of stuff it was probably opened 65000, right? so in my reporting, i think it picks up on a lot of what alone and need to talk about whether i have been periods. i mean, officials that i have spoken to at the highest levels of decision making,

washington has that one month into the wall. that was already a critical mass of painting inside the, by the administration saying, how do we take this differently, right? sort of already you, by the time you've reached the truth and kind of lead november, the could have been taking different steps. i don't think way even talking about 15000 potentially affordable taps, but really talking about all sorts of 2013000. and that does include, is really hostages. who could have been saved in that period, that does include the question of what kinds allegations and indictments that you've not seen, right? so as a consequence of the bind immunizations choices, not only what are these, that's, that was avoidable sign in, which was the class multiple times public health crises. but you've had a situation where even by the old metrics of standing by israel being the us in the world as a global leader, they have done years worth of damage, right? the us and israel at the i p g at the i see,

see going to be fighting what kinds obligations for just about decades and the kind of damage to that global reputation, that signing the relationships that immeasurable. so, you know, when we talked about could just, you have been achieved and mean could and still have been achieved in july. i, i agree with alone that by the time present, titan's football fate was sealed, it was very unlikely that yahoo was giving it to him. lot of this really depends on, on the website design administration. what would cheating this in a way to both fish? what, right, what are you aware of how that the walk rates and what me know is that the never have been realistic about what they could have done differently. and that's still not right when that saying that on the test of a deal that seeing it in this trial and defiant ways that i came reading it, you'll be the point. those, as you said, to all we get into such a wrote, it is very positive piece, which has also been very cool. i know you've been very clear about what you think, but i'd like to use you for a moment please. to tell us what is really public opinion says about this to gauge

what is riley public opinion is on this a do these right? the public and your view. see the purpose of this ongoing goal because the how much leadership of the, the key leaders who are being killed the, i'll send, well, killed 16th of october as well as know how they're killed. so the 1st of july do is really see a point in this will going on? no, i but, but here's the thing, it's, it's new, it's more than you want. then my initial no. um, inconsistent polls of a clear majority of israelis usually over 65 percent want a hostage deal that includes or is accompanied by a ceasefire, meaning the ends of the war. they do not accept and just trying to tell me i was hollow statements, include chase about, eradicating, come off in the blue writing, come us, and then i, a lady, come us and total victory, etc, etc. why is it new?

ok? because because people are still they, these really site guys enjoy mindset hasn't really changed since october 7, 2023. people are shell shocked. they are devastated. they are agonizing, and they choose to live in denial of what's going on. and god, you know, the time when people said, well, these really probably doesn't know what's going on and gods are kinda, you, you, you forget, i'll just hear you have cnn. you have m as nbc, you have the bbc, you have sky news. you have a um, uh, the internet of course. um, anyone who was interested could have no one exactly what's being done in gaza and ask themselves a legitimate question. okay. i believe it is it just for however, what are we doing there in the last year? ok, 2 months, 3 months from now, what, there are no political goals. every time the us published a post war, guys, a framework, and i understand my understanding is that secretary state data um hampton is

blinking. is about to rehash it. really re litigate this today or in the speech that he's scheduled to get every time that came up. israel either dismissed it for the right. it is for just uh, i refused to engage. and so these really public does not see any reason to keep on the warrant. and majority of as early as this one is over 70 percent, 70. not only ascribed responsibility and accountability to mr. newton now for what did happen on october 7th, i actually think that he is being driven by expedient political considerations. and i am a personal political calculus rather than national security. um and so the public will accept this deal. i also think it'll pass the cabinet, it and, and, and it's mess it if i'm um, saving you a question, but that's not the point. the point is what kind of political turmoil will it lead

to? and i agree with what i just said, that the very outset of our discussion the, the, the idea of the change one will automatically lead to face to it's flawed because i think most of the time now i don't know this. i think mr. nathaniel is, is, is winking and bluffing as his little trout nationalist, frankly, lunatics in the college. and i'm telling them guys, there's no need for this drama there that the ceasefire will not hold, give it to 3 weeks. come on, stop, stop making a big deal out of it. and so the public is gonna, we're going to have this discussion again, 3 weeks from now on frank. okay, ha, i mean, you mentioned at the beginning of that long said phase one would be helpful. perhaps because this isn't public, but we've all been reading leaks from it just explaining to us there are 3 proposed phases. in fact, the rule was up in 3 proposed phases in the comb tools of this deal. just explain to us, you were understanding of what happens in each phase by simply force if you can.

and so again, we haven't got these details of confirmed yet, but the 1st phase of the deal, um, which last night thing for about uh, a 2 to 3 weeks is about hostage and prisoner releases. of course. um, it's probably best that we simply call them all captives because i think that they're all hostages, and they're all prisoners. but that these ratings will be released on the policy and this will reduce and they'll be faint. and they'll be sort of all to nations between them, you know, a certain number and then a certain number and a certain number and certain number. but during that 1st phase, and there's not going to be any withdrawal of the idea from gaza, it's envisage that all my, what i think is going to be confirmed is the reopening of or off during the 1st phase or the end of the 1st phase. and then what is in visit just on paper, is that in the 2nd phase, the 1st,

so it'd be more hosted releases and present early uses and kept the releases. yes. but they'll also suppose to be more of a read deployment of the i b s. the, the, the full list of any withdrawal isn't really envisaged until you get to stage 2 and 3. and this is why i frankly think that you know, this, what i wanna mention about the wing can go to the far right on the right wing by. that's and you know, i think that there's also something else that's going on here because this reading media is also reporting of the last couple of days. i'd give us 24 hours. actually . that's nothing you all himself has received. of course, these are unconfirmed reports, but i think that the relevant has received assurances from the incoming trump administration that if they want to return to bombing does and considering the war in a few weeks time before getting into stage 2 or stage 3, then the trump invitation will back them and considering the amount lots of

permanent ties. ation that we've seen of these really positions throughout garza, the increased the military infrastructure that has been put across the 3rd street. the why did it involved in that study in the car? the, for example, in both directions. okay. the appointment of a, quote unquote military government or for guys, a very similar to the same that exists in the west bank. but the, the, the, in incredibly explicit desire of a very significant portions of these really political spectrum. and these really public, to actually set tools in parts of casa, i find that very, very difficult to see that they're, all of this pressure is going to be put to one side in favor of an idea of withdrawal on the country. i don't think that there's been anything stated by the not to now government. and frankly, by these really political spectrum in general that suggests that they are

interested in affordable for withdrawal. that they're interested in the palestinian authority government and gaza again. and a resolution to the posting is really conflict once in full. okay. a lot on the, on the subject that we've just been talking about about the release is by both sides. my understanding is the formula and it has been for some time is the t palestinians for one is riley, is that your understanding of all they going to be any restrictions of who can be released? i mean, i think a prominent political thing goes like one bug booty. it is either $31.00 or $1.00 to $30.00 or $50.00 to $1.00. it is not clear i have seen, and i heard from someone in the negotiating team that both biggers have been uh, discussed um, look by 2024 um numbers or data. uh, there are about $2100.00 palestinians incarcerated or jailed an issue. um,

obviously the list includes um many who have been convicted of their activity were direct involvement in inactive care. in fact, a story newspaper reported today, i've had one, how much is the initial demands? was the release of uh, um mr. sitting wires by the i don't know if that is true and i don't know if that is only symbolic or i don't know if that is a bargaining chip. but yeah, my understanding is that they are going to be $33.00 is really hostages released in the 1st phase that the ha talked about. but the 2nd phase, which will supposedly be negotiated in the 1st 16 days of the 40 to day process. i don't know where they reached these numbers, but they are what they are. they will negotiate the other members. and in, in,

in the quid pro, quote, for every on that is really hostage is going to be either 30 or 50. it could be, and this is me speculating that it depends on whether or not and i know this is uh, uh, very uh, uh, you know, grows to say, but it could be that uh the, the numbers change whether or not the hostages alive or dead. okay. let me bring in act up because your total interruption, you spend most of your time in washington dc looking at us diplomacy. um, i was always told by the americans that certainly have a one administration at the time. and yet let me go see actions even though hot seemed to have a representative from the binding administration and donald trump's invoice. steve, what costs an invoice for president? there's not even president yet but i think from the bind administrations perspective, they are trying very hard to change to create the impression that it is monday

ministration, but it is continuous, which is really quite saw advert painted. think about inseparably right. i mean, the said the total problem is the creative prep 12 or something of value. so if you really want be associated with that 1st, 2nd, what editing negotiate and whatever, or the same for the family, details of replica bands, that something is going to take credit, right? so i think that's a real estimate by dividing seems to kind of piggyback on trunk pressure, but then not going to in the long run, i think get the credit that i'm looking for. yeah, i think the, the relevant part of, of the question of 2 administrations has to do with also the fragility of the ceiling. one comes that's the by the administration has body have a bunch that policy on god that the pc i've been reading worried is the update by west bank. and i think that's where the web, the need to be looking to next as to what the tracking the steel, the trump administration. as i saw, the 5 of us of no, that could really empower these alternation is filing specialist folks in the west

bank who could escalate tensions. and i think that's where this question of 2 administrations is to important because you could very quickly see a president trump take away the sanctions on the set list that by them did introduce employee intentions, that he has appointed people who are evangelical, really hard line. israel supporters and i think that's the real c a right? so while the buys administration is projecting the idea, oh it's way west sort of just putting money ministration to another. no, they will be a real policy shift in the next 2 to 3 weeks. that will probably in same situation in huge bees, and i don't think the bible team will have a creative answer to that given the way that they have enabled, trumped in this book. that's industry. ok. thank you very much. to all guess today on inside story. ha, how are you alone? pink cast an act ball shaheed or ahmed out as it was. team of reporters and camera operators are on the ground in gaza. we have coverage around the clock with

detailed analysis on our website, which is 0. don't com for further discussion of that, but you can go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story, you'll find this one x at a j inside story for me, james base and the team here in doha. please stay safe and well, bye for now. the on counting the costs, syria is the leaders have inherited an economy in ruins of can they rebuild the nation. ukraine has taught off the types of rushes gas flows to europe, but who does the decision? plus the sales of foreign smartphones of drunk file. that's tough in china. counting the cost on on to 0. i mean, it is doing his homework. it's in turkish and despite speaking arabic at home, it's his strongest language. he tells us, i lived here for 9 years,

and it feels like i am more to tish. yes, i want to go back back to visit it, but not like to live more than 3000000 syrian slide here since the war. 13 years ago and entire generation of children and teenagers have grown up here. not knowing syria at all in the prospect of returning is causing mixed feelings. jada is 13 we oscar how she feels, the bit of mix feeling because i've never been to serial before my whole life was here. their parents now face the dilemma of deciding what to do, it's best for their children. i looked my soul, the and the i want to, to come back to remember these to has been happening with the hope that one day for children will feel the same shape come model was for translation and international understanding is inviting

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interpreter as a testing ground. january home alger 0, the, [000:00:00;00] the color that i'm nora. kyle, this is the news how i live from dough. how coming up in the next 60 minutes. and his radio strike hits the janine refugee company occupied westbank getting at least 6 people no less up and as well as attacks across goals at this point to cease find they will