optimistic yourself, people express cautious optimism. that's what many diplomatically, at least the saying and rhetoric many behind the scenes remain very pessimistic. but i think it, it's important to realize to be realistic and i'm talking about a roar real this and, and the question is, is that a wood from coming into power willie, declare this is, this is a diplomatic victory that he can claim. but will we claim a diplomatic victory? secure the release of the us sense and move on? that's one way of thinking of it. another possible way question is, will he remain engaged and at what diplomatic cost? so he has to make an assessment, obviously has the war and ukraine for him is a, it's a top of the priority list together with the relationship with china, pens, relationships with china. so i think for this, mostly he's gotta ask himself a question. if he really wants to expand the abraham accords a mix of getting that grand bargain with saudi arabia, by the way,

that's our countries that are assigned normally normalization deals with is real. that means they recognize as real. they can start trading with is real. instead of israel being a pariah, so he's realizing peace treaty with egypt. jordan, and no, thanks to that, that. that's yeah. dates back, executive wants, if he wants to expand and to include saudi arabia and other players. he's going to have to inject and invest a fair amount of diplomatic capital. but if he can achieve something, that's another major feather in his cap as part of a broad, a legacy. just before we go back to this, the, the, the broader picture of the region abroad. and steve would cost with donald trump's regional, mid east envoy. and so even before donald trump became president, he's been involved the last few weeks since early january in this hostage negotiation deal. he went to go home, he went to israel, met with prime minister benjamin netanyahu. he was physically present indigo. sions . the guitars have told us as much the man is a former real estate mobile. should we be surprised?

so i think, you know, mr. trump 2nd administration is going to probably be full of a lot of personnel surprises. and in mr. what cost case, you can sort of imagine that the buy demonstration understands that this is their deal to make. they have the authority to make it. there's only one government at a time, but that the trump administration was going to have delivered the results. and so i believe they made a smart decision to bring in somebody trusted by donald trump, to be meaningfully involved in the process. so that there is no dropped in the negotiations, especially given that american hostages are among the missing are. but this is not what i mean. what i mean is this man speaking with golf was not a hospice negotiator, was not a career diplomat. and surprisingly, you know, by all accounts has been a meaningfully positive player. and this would not normally be your 1st choice to put in a hostage negotiation team. so big picture 22 hours from now donald trump becomes president, then he's got a middle east that is in flux. that means there is more opportunity for the us to

shape events. then perhaps there has been in the past. do you have a good understanding of what donald trump, what's from the middle east? if he could have his way? what would it look like specifically is real gaza? these really kind of thing, counseling, i think, as we mentioned, the middle east is going to be competing with a lot of other things that are very crowded table. it's very different that it was what donald trump left office ukraine, china. even the middle east, strategically has changed. a lot of the most important change is frankly the diminishment of a ron's capabilities. so donald trump left office, ron was still, you know, a negotiated reduced ability to get nuclear weapons, but it had many proxy forces in the region that were quite capable today. as he takes office, there's no ally in damascus for iran. there. lebanese has bala allies been greatly diminished, and the iranian military itself has been shown to be serious to be deficient in airpower and air defense. so i think for the trump team wild as a,

as the news of the day, the strategic changes on iran or the enduring factor that they're going to have to face when they try to shape events in the middle east. and as you had said, i think for the last 18 months or so, there's been a sense in the world that the u. s. administration is not, can really driving events in the middle east and trying to catch up. i would imagine that with to cease fire and gaza, it's an opportunity for the americans to reassert this. i think the thing to look at in the near term is you haven't. i suspect donald trump will not appreciate having the us navy and a military stand off and see with a tribal militia from yemen, which is where we are right now. and as early as today, there was a missile shot at the us ship. and let's see if that happens tomorrow, we'll be in a different situation with that. in the red season, we are now merkel. i'm, i'm hearing from that too big question marks on human. yes. and on iran, which is possibly, i think a, a much bigger issue. even then yeah,

i'm in and out with these firing and ships and in the red sea. do you think that donald trump's looking at this moment as an opportunity to reconfigure the relationship with iran? i don't know if that means a war. i don't know if that means the negotiation. like you said he inherits when he left office. in january of 2021 is 5 different world in the world that he inherits. now, that's clear. so he's for him, it's about striking a deal, but a deal that can be effective. it can be historic. now around is down in the region, but it's not out. its affiliates. and yeah, man, cause a lot, a lot of damage for global trade, stability, older trade going through the red sea to the indian ocean. it's 2 more weeks for ships to go are basically around africa instead of going through the red sea, which means increased costs, increase insurance costs ultimately also increase costs for customers. and it also makes them look bad if he doesn't do something about it. and images is that he

wants to create that or restore a perception of strength and having like you said, who is in yeah. and then it's very much it, it damages that perception is costly throughout the campaign, talking about making america great. again, that's not just domestically, but restoring determines internationally, fear in respect for america. and when you have difficulties doing what they're doing, that's a sticky point. so i think, yeah, sure he'll do what, what he thinks is necessary in order to try to at least manage the situation there, downgrade them as much as possible. but going to your question about iran, specifically, remember with north korea, he was thinking out of the box, he had a few summits with the north korean leader. okay. maybe it didn't lead to much afterwards. the results. but it demonstrates that he has that ability to think beyond the box and to defy expectations and divide mainstream thinking. so just

think that a grand bargain with a ron can be possible with trump thinking out of the box. yes, i think so. there is a chance there for some things iran is, weakens economically, diplomatically or politically at home and throughout the region. so this may be an opportunity for them, but it's going to take a lot for them when they get what's going to be asked of them. they nuclear is ation season, all activity want sees many activities because it had to not by choice but by necessity. but it could still cause trouble in the region. and if those sticking points in this many other issues. but i would say primarily those sticking points. if they're willing to negotiate on that in a very credible way, something potentially could be possible. markovich is you know, right, hudson, thank you very much and both of you for joining us in the else is there a news our a lot of rapidly moving developments on the ground. so we've been moving things around all day, but we appreciate your patience. we appreciate your presence also and this whole day in washington dc. thank you very much. i see

a family. i'm going to throw it back to you and look, we'll follow your lead sammy, we've got many guests and lots of analysis to bring you will as and when you wanted . but we continue to watch your coverage and your reporting on these advances. i watched the live footage of over a military prison in the occupied westbank and remote gun in uh israel sent me back to you. and so are the absolutely right uh they were, were continuing to watch what's happening all for and these dynamics, of course, are connected between what's happening in the us and what we're seeing in these pictures coming in these latest pictures of that minute tree helicopter. it has taken the, the 3 captives that you have the putting out the screen obviously. so to give some privacy, those 3 is ready to catches, will release from god's having taken dish of a husband around my gun in israel. they released just a few hours ago now arrived there. we understand the mothers of these captains are on the helicopter, but now they are expected to undergo

a medical checkup and be re united with other family members. so that's what's going on. we're looking at those, those pictures, the live pictures i should say, coming into us here on out. is there an incredible dynamic unfolding that is very much connected as well to what serial was talking about the dynamics going on in the us. all right, let's bring in model on the shara al, just here is senior political analyst. he joins us from dawn model and we also come to to try and tie different dynamics together. and as i was saying, you know what serial is covering there in washington, dc. very much part of what we are witnessing even now is as your on the screen model on we've got some live pictures up looking at alpha prison as well as the that ministry helicopter. and i guess one of the key questions on the minds of many people across this region and the around the world is,

does it come down to donald trump now to, to answer the question as to whether this bill is going to get to the end, the phase 3 or not there is no doubt that the next america, the restriction, would have a major role to play. now whether this role is constructive or destructive or managed to be seen of us, some of our guests sort of washington sound to me like some of the guests or some of the various commentators out of that run or out of moscow in the sense that there are so subjective that effects people like you, my side of for, you know, kind of look at all of this from a bit of a distance to see that. what other americans talk about in the union as a trouble maker. and them, at least, especially when he's a 4 model official or what have you. they don't understand how much of

a truck would make america has been individualized from the invasion of iraq. the vision of guiding stands it into a dimension of libya and human from says that the adventure and syria, iran and 11 on and so and so forth live, i don't, is read about us died. so clearly for us the book or objective data, there are 2 schools of thinking. now one that says look, trump is unpredictable. he is transactional. he would be looking out for america interests and he wants peace as several of our america guests said over the past 72 hours. he's a man of peace. he's transactional and he's looking for them. i got an interest and he was very, very determined from day one. he told me nothing you know, sign on the piece deal. so this is the peaceful trump that's once i know but piece price. and then that is the other school that says, look, we had him for 40 years from 2017,

2021. we know what he stands for. we know how he recognizes that extension of your students, that of the golan heights, both of them occupied guess, international law. how much do you want get fund conditional support to that then you know, whole governments and so on and so forth. and that he, before even getting into the white house have appointed a number of socially pro nathan yahoo. the attendance from the secretary of state to the you are not invested there to the is there a that invested there to the, to the special ed for to them into the stevens and national stickers, advisor, all of them hot and might or nothing. you know, and as you would expect him to be unconditioned to support the new or even more so than by that which drum for the should video trying to take a 1st step. we will see i personally of course, i'm not very optimistic. you're not very optimistic. how

do i wonder if you up to me is an upholding thing? says old, but hope okay. i wonder if it increases or decreases though when it comes to analyzing the question of didn't donald trump, you give commitments to nothing. yeah. you know, to, to get this deal over the finish line. and i'm sure you know, all of the talk about whether those promises made on recognizing annexation of the west bank lifting sanctions on settlers. all the big golden prize going off to a ron. so i actually been saying that from, from day one, as soon as we realize that trump is getting involved, that there's going to be something that he's going to be giving at the now because look and then of the a, there wasn't going to be

a ceasefire. if there wasn't going to be in your administration, why? because nothing, you know, wasn't going to says peers concessions overseas fire to up the session that was heading out. there was no point. he wouldn't be getting any political capital out of it. the only way he could get something out there and there's a piece of that to the coming administration, but trump. hi nancy, was it all this time and bite him? in fact, it was the one who bought in the time. and then we got the best far from wanted it to be done before january the 25th. so he said, look, you just sign onto this and i promise you we can work together. and apparently, according to the thing you know here, told them just do the 1st phase. and if you have to get out of the 1st page, we will allow you, i would actually give you all the arms that you need according to nothing. yeah. right. so there is a trump, that is probably planning to expand that,

but i'm a 14 cruze so dear. and he might again do more of the same uh, recognition of next ations as an eastern or so them. so these are, these are the, are, these have direct records, this precedent to them and from could do to make it know that they're on, is it a different question? i agree with some of the earlier, i guess we have on that. we don't know if he's going to go to the piece making track with your on because you want is ready, get on was ready before october, 7 on before you want. is there any history on it as soon as it's elected, then you press that. so you didn't you on this because time one is ready to pick a d and with the united states basically, united states is ready to make it okay. you mentioned actually before losing access . and just to remind you is we're looking on 2 sides of the screen that a situation outside offer minutes. we present because we are expecting 90 palestinian prisoners to be released as we're talking to my one. and on the bottom

of that you've got run out again and that yeah, those are the live scenes coming in after the the release and transfer threes or the captives from captivity in gaza. be they were just transfered by helicopter to a hospital that with that being who are, and i to, with your family soul that going on as we talk to model on the shoulder. see the political on this to model one. you would talk about the versions of donald trump. there is, there is a donald trump that wants to expand. the normalization of quotes is the, is a donald trump. but ultimately, once to see the end of the roots, cause is what you and officials called the root causes of this whole conflict. the end of 58 years of occupation. the end of 18 years of siege on garza and the end of what is really and international human rights groups. cole,

a pop type that the palestinians have suffered at the hands of israel to so many years and decades from, from my reading about trump. and i've done several dozens of books about him and by him i can tell you for sure that the man is not interested in history. the man doesn't have much of a vision, but he does have a strong, strong instincts. he has strong insights and he has and he is an extraordinary metric. what's the difference between, between a bridge and that a, with a historical sense and a maverick is that one, as he puts it in one of his testament is the one of the authors. he's done actually knows how to roll with the punches. when you're on with the punch is that means

you're not expecting the punches the 1st page. perhaps you have to have a vision and a strategy to avoid the punches. he read it in writing with the punches, he would get the crisis whether it was with china, russia, whether it's in the book, the sign he was dealing with or not because he knows the, you know, the history over as well. and not because he has a vision of the father into the future to what to do about it, because he has the instinct of how to manage it today. so he knows that he has a very important base of christian scientists, some of whom he pointed. important positions like the and by so days read. he also has a very strong radical republicans. design is swaby and here and he and he already put one of them at the united nations. and he has also traditional on other public as well as support of his ride, like the secretary of state and so on,

so forth. so that man has surrounded himself with people who are pro is right. and i think they would be giving him advice. and his deal would be behaving instinctive about what to do. but he has already said under the him says, with a whole bunch of people who are socially pro is or a pro nothing you know, and you're one, even a lot of them on the slide like just spent a go on a candidate, mr. hex it is book crow, say the america. i mean it's a, it's a like an open book, hostility towards most rooms and stuff and he doesn't hide it. i mean, he's actually very, very open about, you know, his is christian nationalism. all right, thanks so much model on the shoulder. uh for bring us some context to all of these dynamics going on. our senior political analyst model on the shot of that was

bringing now, gosh, on baskin. he's the middle east, the right to an international communities organization. and a former hostage negotiator, he joins us now from west to, to some good to have you with us. go show. i imagine this is a moment for a sigh of relief and at least felt 3 families of captives a moment of joy. and certainly it is for the people are visual watching these 3 young women come home after $471.00 days in captivity and fear that they might not be well or able to walk and seeing them coming out of that muscle vehicles and transferred into the united being to the red cross vehicles was assigned to really for everyone. so certainly as they cross the border into israel and where the body is, where the army and personnel, everyone felt a great a relief. but this was the 1st 3 out of a total of $97.00 hostages. that need to go over the next 2 to 3 months. and it's

a very long period. um, for this deal that's been negotiated and a lot could go wrong between now and then. you would even nicely left off at the point i wanted to pick up how much confidence do you have that this deal will make it through the very long period given what we're hearing from people like these right and the minister of finance does allow smotts rich who said in, in, in comments published on january, 18th, quote, unfortunately, we were unable to prevent this dangerous bill. but we insisted and were able to insure through a government decision in the cabinet and other ways that the war would not end in any way without achieving its full goals. foremost among them, the complete destruction of how mass in garza now he seems to be saying he's, he thinks he's got some kind of assurance that the war is going to continue. that

is the white glove. it's all going to break down, but i'm not very worried. it's very boring. i think. so my assessment dues that from us would have not entered into this deal. i'm for such an extended period of time without receiving guarantees that would lead to the end of the war and is really withdrawal from casa. i believe that the categories and the addictions have been told by donald trump and his people. steve would call that they would ensure that the world will come to an end. now there's no way of guaranteeing that we don't know what's going to develop on the ground. this is one of the reasons why i have commented, commented since may when president biden 1st a issue with this deal, that it was a bad deal any deal that takes 2 or 3 months to fulfill for ending a war, bringing about a ceasefire. returning hostages for the promised indian prisoners is a bad deal. this could have been done in the watch what a period of time. in fact, in september from us submitted a paper to me in which they agreed to

a 3 week deal that would have ended the war and electro and his really withdrawal and exchange of protest. any prisoners was where the hostages, but no one was interested in that deal with that time. the government of israel didn't want to end the war. look, atari and egyptian mediators were waiting from us to come to them with a deal. i'm upset if we issue this in public, we're making you concession and net with both as b. we and a and the united states was deeply invested in this bad deal that they were negotiating for so many months. so um that's how we ended up with this deal. it's not by accident that we are right. does that feel good? so i'm, i'm, i'm just, i'm sorry to interrupt you a minute. i'm just listening kathleen, to everything you're saying, i'm how i don't know the right. what is unusual is it to have to look to, you know, the fact that how am i signed onto it as a source of hope that there would be guarantees for this deal to go through. and, and i not take too seriously. the words of these re, the prime minister,

i mean is, is a telling one thing to me, the 8th is intending another thing to be with, like, smart trojan. if so, i mean, does that leave him more at the mercy of people like small friction, the cabinet now the say save his government off to the withdrawal of it's a model been give you the minister of national security. it very much will, could be, you know, nothing you know, has never been accused of telling the truth all the time. so we don't know what he's saying. if it's truthful and not truthful, we don't know. we do know there's nothing. it was sort of interesting of last 15 months, not to end this war, but when this war ends, the calls for new elections will grow the demand. so these are the public for a national commission of inquiry heavy binding dependents. a pretty good judge will be louder and louder. are things that nothing yours are, are opposed to because it will point to him is being responsible as the head of government on october 7th of last year. and everything that led to october 7th and the dysfunctional nature of this government since then, nothing you know has lots of reasons doctor one here in this war. right. all right,

gosh, i'm basking that. thank you so much for sharing your perspective and to what's been happening in goshen baskin international communities organization. the as well as see sign may be in place now, but since the war began 16 months ago, almost 47000 palestinians have been killed in his right. the attacks, more than 18800 of those who died with children. many young survivors permanently. scott then the basic medical services available in schools destroyed because those young people face uncertain future. the not box that explains. they've witnessed death loss and destruction the children of cause or bearing the brunt of israel's war. children make up nearly half of the population in the besieged strip, and do you want has described it as the most dangerous place in the world to be a trial? well, we want to be

a month into the war. they pleaded for protection. think all they wanted was to live as other children live, do it, but they're desperate calls for help went on heard. and the bombs did not stop since then at least 44 percent of the palestinians killed in this war. have been children for those who survive the scar stretch far beyond the physical or something like this. know that we're now going to change the aerospace and get an ego many have lost one or both parents. nearly 19000 are now orphans and from the horrors afore a grim acronym emerged, w. c, n s. s. wounded child, no surviving family,

marked on the tiny bodies of those who survived. many other children are names for life. health officials say child m. p t 's account for 18 percent of all recorded amputation cases. in garza garza now has the highest number of child m p cheese per capita anywhere in the world. many are you losing their lives in scenarios such as this? the ongoing surgeries without anesthesia, there's cars are a permanent reminder of the ones that will outlast any ceasefire. but amid all the destruction, children and gaza claims to hold as fragile as it might be. longing for a return of childhood stolen by genocide. the novel all play as a 0. all right, and we are looking we're looking at 2 sides of the screen, the

a stand off of tents weight on the left side for families of 90 palestinians. prisoners expected to be released. a japanese american veteran. mistaken. so the enemy, traumatized by the vietnam war, were united with the friend who rescued his life from his fellow soldiers, fifties, and the price is price. you don't realize it until experience an epic tale of friendship. sacrifice has entered covers with nice volunteers on out, usually around the

of the sun rises really up to the history was written, the nature became theory is here, the beast and the timeless journey to slip again. and it's designed to inflame and defense the way that the story is being told,

not right. and it's not accurate from social networks to legacy media. the listening post explosives, the policies behind the headlights pulled out the 3 female is ready, captive held, and goss i have been released and are now in tennessee. within medical condition is being assist. barely of the captives were handed over to the red cross, and kansas city is part of a cx 5 deal with them on the on tell mccrae, this is just their live from top. also coming up, the 1st group of palestinian prisoners held in this riley jones and the old pod westbank are bound.