the, the, the, the old just the, the, the world is looking ahead to donald trump, 2nd to and as us president, what kind of expect from trump to point out and well has america. first, i was a conflict with the world order created and led by washington since world war 2. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on the 1st 100 days of donald trump 1st to were defined by chaos from banning visits is from some muslim majority countries to pulling out of major trade deals as decisions shop the world transaction sought to assess american leadership globally. but they would widely seen as it tends to flow on a pallet. and instead of an in respect for the us president, they triggered fear. tons made similar threats and the sessions and the weeks before his 2nd to them. it offers his promising to crack down on integration on least tyrants on allies and even take control of the panama canal and a greenland. so what can the international community expect from the 2nd trump

presidency? the next 4 years? i'm kind of a halt, washington fading reputation as an up holder of democracy and the rules based world order. we get to these issues, but i guess in a moment. but 1st this report by katia lopez, holiday on donald trump. second presidential term begins in a vastly different global landscape then his 1st it's let's sum to question if his america 1st messaging could permanently change geo politics. and we begin to a brand new day of american strength and prosperity, dignity, and pride describes is both powerful and reckless during which one's political style has many leaders bracing for the unexpected to supporters, hopeless. transactional deal making approach will help maintain the ceasefire. deal between israel and homos as well as the fighting between

russia and ukraine. still more than pretty leisure. i haven't spoken to trump and moving forward hughes and i am ready for it. of course, at any time, i'll be ready for a meeting if he wants it. the threats of us terror of san canada, mexico and china are worrying other countries including long time allies, your boss kilo, i think you, it needs to set itself with regard to us trade policies and perhaps in post terrace . it should also seek other trade partners outside the us and strengthen its own policies within the european union. mass deportations are at the top of trump's agenda. she's promised to tighten border security in the port up to 20000000 on documented immigrants from the us. whether respected or feared, critics, a terms of blanket approach to legitimate issues, domestic and international, could have far reaching consequences. it would be a mistake for us to see that the damage to human rights system into human

rights is a whole will be domestic. because the time that the us and the trump in particular has been sessing is one that is in bold ending of the, for the crap. a want to be autocrats around the world at a time of political search and see many or wondering of trump pull up and more than 80 years of americans dominance around the world. and if so, how much it will affect the shifting global order? katia lopez, so the yen elders 0 for insights. story the when it spring in august, joining us from dublin and scott lucas, a professor of us and international politics at university college dublin. and bathing is on a tang and a senior fellow at ty, hey, institute, that's an independent chinese think tank and in college has to end the u. k. is

natasha, and instead of foreign policy specialist and professor of government at the university of ethics, a very well welcome to all of you. we have a lot to get through in this program. scott, i'll start with you trump in his 1st few days as the next president is expected to unleash a let. so the executive orders actions including math deportations pot in for january 6, roches aggressive terrace for the number of countries. his former white house chief of staff, steve bannon said the concept for the 1st those 1st few days a weeks will be the ease of fund. what are you expecting? well, i think you summarized it well in the introduction when you talked about donald trump's 1st term being marked by chaos. and that is where we are 8 years later. in terms of specific actions, you are talking about the threat of those mass deportations before probably start tomorrow. they won't be millions reported immediately,

but you will have the beginning of cutting the rights, limiting the ability of migrants and asylum seekers to be able to use the system to avoid the protection, you will see unleashing american fossil fuel companies. by stripping regulations with the pass, the down will have on efforts to deal with climate change. you will see the cutting back stripping of women's rights, obviously the t rights and the trip to the foreigner. right now. we wait and see whether tests will be announced on day one. but there's a specific issue up to 60 percent terms on china, which is balanced by the fact that donald trump is a great admirer, a she shouldn't pain and it's making nice noises about it. we'll see if there tells canada and mexico which has not been once by the fact that donald trump states justin to go in canada and the mexican president, claudia shrunk on this, so she's not going to be bullied by him. and of course, that water issue, which may not be that is likely to water today, which is donald trump, is not a friend of nato, is not

a friend of the you. he would like to disrupt those organizations and to give you what is there be on the x, the, the kind of one of the executive orders. there wasn't just donald trump, but it was mark of rubio who said this week that the post for international order is obsolete. that the order that you talked about since world war 2, that has tried to guarantee peace and security and for this profit ministration. it no longer applies, which means the rest of the world will have to decide whether it wants to maintain out of order in the face of the challenge. even the threat of donald trump. i know how do you think china where you are, but indeed the rest of the world is looking ahead to the 2nd trump presidency. and what do you think lead is that and beyond have learned about how to deal with this president as well. quite frankly, you have to remember this is 8 years later and the world is not the same. donald trump is coming into a situation where china has an absence prepared itself for these kind of shopping

off. you know, proceedings. but it's, it's odd with in china itself and beijing, their cautiously optimistic. they were very concerned about biden's ideological bound to see his desire to push the envelope, especially with taiwan. and also that's now trying to seize all of these areas. so they're looking forward to seeing what he has to offer. i mean, he has 200 proclamations and executive orders. he's going to assign everybody's anxious to so that we all know the areas that were, you know, mentioned by faster. but we don't know the specifics and how deep it is going to go . there is some feeling here that the reason he called shooting paying wasn't part to, you know, show that he's one of the boys that he's one of the powerful people in the world. but also because he's, he's been told that 60 percent terrace on china would be disastrous in terms of the american public. they're tired of inflation. they don't want higher prices. so i

think he's positioning himself where he is as well. you know, i'm good friends or she so i'm going to give him a chance. i'm going to only put, you know, another 10 or 20 percent or so in china and then uh, threatened to escalate it. and you know, hope that this can somehow not cause too much of a problem in the us. i think it will though the natasha. that is something he's known for. isn't it to go to the big with the threats as a negotiation technique and then to, you know, negotiate from, from that position. and as scott was saying, as i've heard from, i know he's had this conversation, but she's been paying and it seems that perhaps he will not impose 60 percent talents on china. as he was threatening, he invited, she's been paying to his an alteration. how are you seeing things from the perspective of the great promises he made about how much he was going to improve the u. s. economy. will the promises that he made actually improve the u. s.

economy or the global economy? so one of the thinks and understand about trump is a lot of the things that come out of this. now they just sort of come into his head some pain usually sometimes sometimes he's just talking in order to distract from another scandal. i think one example that is the way he started talking about a annex in greenland and attacking panama. and that seemed to come out of nowhere, particularly the case with panama has coincided with a release of a report by a special counselor jack smith. so some of the things that he says is really more of a distraction tool solve it is about negotiating and he thinks when he can disarm and destabilize his opponents. in many cases, his opponents are actually his allies, that he's gonna have the upper hand in,

in some kind of a, you know, battle to, to, to negotiate better better deals. but i think it's gonna be very difficult for him to follow through with all the things that he says he's going to do, even with the power executive, or there will be pressure not to go ahead with the extremes, like 60 percent tariff on china understanding how damaging that will be really more so to the us economy because trying to find other trading partners and already diversified as economy before during the 1st trump administration. but if he really wants to address installation of trumpets really serious about that, having an additional task on all these really pretty sole and important goods coming in. whether it be from canada, from mexico or china, those are obviously the, the 3 biggest trading partners of the us is not going to make things cheaper. and

those were some of his big promises. so i don't think he can fully follow through on most of it. i think he wants the photo. i think he wants the appearance that he made a good deal and he'll try to sell it that way to the space. scott, and one of the things that he has achieved, one of the big things that he spoke about on the campaign trail, as he said he wanted a sci fi and gaza, the full has an organization. that's something that has happened. do you think that he will care about what happens in gaza beyond the 1st phase of this do when the is way the captives have been exchanged? so we need to put that important question you perspective by going back to what really happened? you're not is the soon after the november election july, the by the donald trump, the white house, the on the photo opportunity. because biden's wife, everybody else knows that you play the trump in terms of his ego. and as a transactional president, there's a lot of, let's get

a deal done by the time you uh, step up and take the novel loves on january 20th and trump's credit because it would make him look good or he appointed or designated as the width cost is at least on the way to work with the buyer people. and of course, you know, they working with the chips has the car is broken between loss of israel, goddesses, phase one. she's bar, which we should have had many months ago. but she doesn't, may, what that story about from claiming credit all turn soft, obscures the fact is that we are unlikely at this point to get a phase to cease fire. and why is that? because the biggest determinant right now and phase 2 is not donald trump is rarely domestic politics. and when you have 2 hard right, ministers in these really cat whatever is lot. and taking the party out of the government. when they're saying that israel must return to war in 6 weeks and must establish a military government over gaza. it's going to be very hard for benjamin netanyahu

to proceed with things to even if he wants it. so what does donald trump and as long as the woodcock do that, when they hit the hard truth about is really the politics versus the absolute devastation and joshua and the facts of loss does not want to relinquish power. and i know, does that give us an idea of, you know, so to answer scott's question about what donald trump might do, if we look at every one that he has put in place to work on his middle east policy support smith in yahoo, of course, what happens with this will has an impact on the entire region and beyond. if you look at has a 20, so 5 support nothing. yahoo has defense, secretary pate, of pick a pete headset. thanks as well. should a next. the westbank does that tell us everything we need to know about what we can expect or trump still capable of surprises here? do you think i know, elizabeth, i, i don't think there are any surprises. what he wanted was a show pony. he wanted to have as an alteration and say, look,

i brought peace in to israel and home off. the fact is they have already started a position where they say, well that from us breaks the truths, you know, all hands are off. i mean, his idea is he would like to see peace there, not because he particularly cares about the situation. he's a big backer of israel, but he would like to get the nobel peace prize the nominated or got people to nominate him twice during his last presidency. and he's, and you said many times on the campaign trail, i'm going to be the peace president and things like this. you know, remember, obama got it and anything that obama had he seems to want. so that might be in the mirror ation in terms of his action, but i doubt it i, i would agree with the former speaker. this is a situation which domestic politics and israel is going to control. he is just looking for some way to say, well, i tried, i, you know, i brought them together and then you know, these terrible from us, people, uh,

broke uh the, the deal. and you know, israel is gonna have to take care of it. natasha as well as saying that he wanted a cx 5 before the animal ration. one of the things he repeated during the campaign was that he would end the russia ukraine war in a day. interestingly, he stopped saying that, and he said that it will take him, perhaps the 1st $100.00 days to secure a deal. of course, washington has great leverage with key because of the military support. it provides ukraine. how do you see trump using that leverage? well, i don't see that he has any control over when the war ends in, in ukraine. i knew that he said, you know, as he mentioned 24 hours and he backed out on that and, and he's already admitted in his interview with time magazine that this conflict is far more complicated than the conflict in the middle east, which we of course know is incredibly complicated as well, and the reason why he cannot resolve the issue in, in your credit to warn you credit is because russia wants to control all of you

current. there are not going to be willing to accept some sort of deal, even if you cream is forced to capitulate quite a bit of territory. and in fact, the kellogg deal, and key television, special envoy that trump's going to a point for you print in russia, that deal wasn't really even official, but the foreign minister of russia survey log rob has already rejected that deal and says that he doesn't meet russia's requirements, so unless trump wants ukraine to completely fall to russia and that may be too embarrassing for his administration. i think he's going to find it difficult to get some kind of deal that both sides can agree to. and already the deal that he had put forward to russia was one that was incredibly favorable to russia. right, scott, and i know either of you can take this question, is it possible for trump to break selection and pause when pushing one to accept a seating the territory that he has seized and this war and even those uminski has

said for the 1st time that he might be open to freezing the war along the current front lines. that would only be if the rest of ukraine could join nasal, which trump has said he understands why ukraine joining may. so it would be unacceptable to russia. who or donald trump knows less than my mom does without ukraine. she's 86 years old. and more importantly, donald trump is the hold of the bladder reproaches. he's been holding divine recruitment since 2016 and the russians helped his campaign. and since approaching, flattered him and continues to fly around. now, donald trump wants to say on the piece by for it so. so the question here is the people around trump. that is, you have to work as natasha mentioned, the kellogg the on way. got to work to mike wall, semester security advisor. possibly more co ruby. i'll just like for you to stay.

and that is, will they like taught? just simply accept the criminal narrative of peace thoughts, which means annexation the international community of accepting the annexation by russia of 27 percent of ukraine. or will they say no, we're not going to loveland recruiting, have that there is a deal, which is pretty much freedom worked out which is being developed, which is going to be that in the short term, ukraine will accept the russian occupation mazda parts of the eastern the southern ukraine, including crimea, and in return, you probably would get a pass to nato and get a pass to the european union. but you've got to swear a lot of people to accept that you've got to square european countries on that. you've got to arrange the nature of course, and you've also got to look for powers. it's like china's in terms of how they're going to react. so not trucks, not going to bring the someone to ukraine because trump here is simply all bluster the questionnaires with washington have enough adults in the room to be able to

deal with this and not capitulate to effectively being a well carrying water from, from, i know well, you know, the international community saying that in the, for the annexation is not acceptable, but the international community will not filled the military shortfall to ukraine. that donald trump can withhold rice. you know, that's correct. i mean, the ukraine is losing the war. i mean, that's not something conjecture. it's just the way, way it is. but you know, putting can't really expand to all of ukraine who would be facing a hard and da physician that would go grill on him. he'd have to have a massive amount of resources there. to garrison your very, very large part of the country. so you know what, what potent wants that is, he wants to keep the territory that he's in essence next. and he wants to clear that the rest of your brain is going to be remain neutral. but you're not going to have the us missiles there, he doesn't want an open sore, an unresolved situation. so it's going to be very difficult to solve. but in terms

of my colleagues point about washington, look, you know, let's be real about this. what we're looking at is the 5th season of the apprentice washington. look, look at the people who put on there are qualified, but they certainly are photo genic but, and they're also expendable. so he's gonna assign them cast. if they don't, uh, you know, we are unable to respond or if they defy him, they're gone. and i don't think you'll do that. you're fired bit. but you know, right. swami is already gone and we hasn't even started is 10 years president of these. this is the way it's going to go. he's, he's going to manage washington like he managed the apprentice. it's going to be a bit of a show, but he's always paying attention to the polls and anything that you know, slides against them. he's going to pivot. yeah, it's not that there's no ideology. yeah. natasha, what do you make of? i'm a say what i'm saying, that there is no ideology binding the people that he has brought together. in fact,

the only thing that looks like, what these people might have in common is a loyalty to trump. and that's exactly what's happened that i mean, he's become more personally sick, similar to personalised dictators that, that i study that he doesn't really want to surround himself by those that are competent. and i have a lot of experience. he prefers fealty total loyalty. and that's really different than the 1st administration where there were some bar rose up, there were some people and it worked into the administration that that had experience and, and that told him no or steered him to do quote unquote, the right thing from time to time. but because he surrounding himself by he's sick of bands, this is going to affect of course, the quality of intelligence is going to affect the decisions that he's making. and we're, we're going to see a us increasingly isolated with very little respect for international law and international institutions. and scott, human rights organizations including human rights watch, amnesty international,

have open sound, and the alarm about what the 2nd trump presidency will mean for not just human rights women's rights in the us. but around the world, i mean, trump has jump that he would be a dictator on day one. but given how he's governance in the past, do you think he's really joking? donald trump shall want to be on the front. she admires those who not only flattery, but those who happen to be on across whether it's fusion paying, whether it's flying or put time, whether it's victor or bonding hungry, for example, whether it's higher balls tomorrow in brazil. and donald trump does not believe in working within the system. he sees the american system as being a threat to him. and he's the issue and rights is being a threat to him. i mean, let's remember a couple things here to connect the personal with what's happening in terms of

foreign policy. dom from cubic controls, donna's from ssl certificate, trustor. donald trump has been convicted of designation of a woman who he sexually assaulted. so right someone entered into what block donald trump does personally, and he doesn't think of rights when he looks at america for abroad. and of course, the tragedy here is, is the america, which is of course, has been very florida in the way that it is tried to promote human rights. we could go talk about decades about that. what happens here is if you have a present to us, it literally does not only against human rights, but it's turn them apart. and those who are in other countries around the world who are suppressing human rights. yeah. whether it be in a asia, the middle east, lot in america, they feel like they've got a free pass. there's no reason to listen to the united states. yeah. i know how do you see it because the he was, has long been criticized for not being completely genuine when it talks about holding up human rights and rules based on what uh,

what does having someone like donald trump and the presidency mean for the us. roland? that well, unfortunately unvarnished truth is that the united states has been a rogue nation for most of its life. its only been at peace for 17 years out of $249.00. and it's not that much of a change member under biden. uh, you know, the pentagon was spreading this nonsense about the chinese vaccines in the philippines was costs many people their lives. and then when, when they were confronted by it, by reuters, what did they say? oh, we do it again because it's a way of getting back a china they did the same thing with the fake vaccine drive when they were trying to hunting for osama bin lot. what is the result in anybody who's claims that their backs, they didn't, even for polio was being attacked and killed? i mean, there are long term consequences to this pretending, but the us is the,

you know, the better factor of the world, but not one time o has not been closed. you know, you what, what do you say about the, the wars in afghanistan and iraq and other places you know, somalia, you name it, u. s. has been a bringer of chaos is not been upholding the international order. it has been ignoring it. remember under biting the i, c. c is being threatened with that i suppose. i surprise the question is, does it have a leader who can undo some of that damage or natasha? let me put it to you. how much more damage with a trump presidency due to that keeping in mind that this can only be that this has to be his last to, to writing. so i would counter that binding was trying to move back towards multi lateral diplomacy. to what extent he was successful, people can debate that, but under the trump administration, it will get worse of me to, to quote a harvard law professor. dex goldsmith. during trump's 1st term,

we never seen such an onslaught on international institutions and international law because he just doesn't understand the way international politics works. he doesn't have any moral authority. he lies more frequently than he tells the truth. and all these things coupled together with just the fact that also he sees his allies as the problem and not his necessarily us. traditional enemies is going to make it much more difficult. and when the us has been added to most, i'm a product that actually does affect the level of democracy across the world. there is this diffusion a fact that you see higher respect for, for human rights. and, you know, stronger uh, electro institutions and levels of participation. in representation, so it does really matter what the us is doing, but i think trump is going to forms things on a very dangerous path. natasha then instead in coal test the scott lucas and dublin

. and i know it's hanging and paging. i'm afraid we run out of time, but i want to thank you all for this lively discussion. we really appreciate your time and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out a 0 dot com. i prefer the discussion to go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. a handle is at a inside story. for me, it is a put on and the whole team here, bye for now, the the showcase best documentary films from across the network on al jazeera, the humanitarian crisis, and 11 and calls for immediate and sustained action. ok,

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the a donald trump and takes the oath of office as the 47th president of the united states, announcing a series of controversial actions. all illegal entry will immediately be halted and we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places for which they came.