to come in the 1970s was a pivotal time to send them our own theater in the middle east and north africa and 3 back to be back. in the 2nd of a 2 part series out to 0. well, to meet the creative risk takers who broke new ground for censorship and developed their own voice in the seventy's in the arab world stage and screen on al jazeera. the world is looking ahead to donald from 2nd ton as us president. what can expect from trump to point to tell and well has america 1st policy conflict with the world order created and led by washington since world war 2? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm elizabeth put on the 1st 100 days of donald trump 1st to were defined by chaos from banning visits is from some muslim majority countries to pulling out of major trade deals as decisions shop the world transaction sought to assess american leadership globally. but they would widely seen as it tends to flow and palla and instead of and in respect for the us president they triggered fear trumps made similar threats and the sessions and the weeks before his 2nd to them and office is promising to crack down on integration unleashed tyrants on allies and even take control of the panama canal and greenland . so what can the international community expect from the 2nd trump presidency? the next 4 years? i'm kind of a halt, washington fading reputation as an holder of democracy. and the rules based world order, we get to these issues, but i guess in a moment,

but 1st this report by katia lopez, holiday on donald trump. second presidential term begins in a vastly different global landscape. then his 1st, it's let's sum to question if his america 1st messaging could permanently change geo politics. and we begin to a brand new day of american strength and prosperity, dignity, and pride. this client is both powerful and reckless. donald trump's political style has many leaders bracing for the unexpected to supporters, hopeless. transactional deal making approach will help maintain the ceasefire deal between israel and homos as well as and the fighting between russia and ukraine still more than for the delivery. i haven't spoken to trump and move them forward. hughes and i am ready for it. of course, at any time,

i'll be ready for a meeting if he wants it. the threats of us terror of san canada, mexico and china are worrying other countries including long time allies, your boss kilo, i think your it needs to set itself with regard to us trade policies and perhaps impose terrace. it should also see other trade partners outside the us and strengthen its own policies within the european union. mass deportations are at the top of trump's agenda. she's promised to tighten border security and deport up to 20000000 on documented immigrants from the us. whether respected or feared, critics, a terms of blanket approach to legitimate issues, domestic and international, could have far reaching consequences. it would be a mistake for us to see that the damage to human rights system into human rights as a whole will be domestic. because the time that the us and the trump in particular

has been sessing is one that is in bold ending of the, for the crap. a want to be autocrats around the world at a time of political uncertainty. many are wondering of trumpet up and more than 80 years of americans dominance around the world. and if so, how much it will affect the shifting global order? katia lopez, so the yen elder 0 for insights story the when that spring in august joining us from dublin and scott lucas, a professor of us and international politics at university college dublin. and bathing is on a tang and a senior fellow at ty, hey, institute, that's an independent chinese think tank and in college has to end the u. k. is natasha, and instead of foreign policy specialist and professor of government at the university of ethics, a very well welcome to all of you. we have a lot to get through in this program. scott,

i'll start with you trump in his 1st few days, as the next president is expected to unleash a bullets of executive orders, actions including math deportations, pardons for january 6, roches aggressive terrace for the number of countries. his former white house chief of staff, the baton said, the concept for the 1st those 1st few days a weeks will be the ease of fund. what are you expecting? like the q summarized it? well, in the introduction, when you talked about donald trump's 1st term being marked by chaos. and that is where we are 8 years later in terms of specific actions, you are talking about the threat of those mass deportations before probably start tomorrow. they won't be millions reported immediately, but you will have the beginning of cutting the rights, limiting the ability of migrants and asylum seekers to be able to use the system to

avoid the protection, you will see unleashing american fossil fuel companies. by stripping regulations with the pass, the down will have on efforts to deal with climate change. you will see the cutting back and the stripping of wasn't right. it tells you the t rights and the terms of the foreigner right now. we wait and see whether tariffs will be announced on day one. but there's a specific issue up to 60 percent tariffs on china, which is balanced by the fact that donald trump is a great admirer, ocean pain. and it's making nice noises about it. we'll see if there are tools in canada and mexico, which has not been once by the fact that donald trump states justin to go in canada and the mexican president claudia shankar. so she's not going to be bullied by him . and of course, that water issue, which may not be there. so i should have water today, which is donald trump is not a friend of nato, is not a friend of the you. he would like to disrupt those organizations. and to give you what is there be on the x, the, the kind of one of the executive orders. it wasn't just donald trump,

but it was more co rubio who said this week that the posts for international order is obsolete. that the order that you talked about since world war 2 that has tried to guarantee peace and security. and for this profit ministration, it no longer applies, which means the rest of the road will have to decide whether it wants to maintain or in the face of the challenge. even the threats of donald trump. i know how do you think china where you are, but indeed the rest of the world is looking ahead to the 2nd trump presidency. and what do you think lead as the and beyond have learned about how to deal with this president as well. quite frankly, you have to remember this is 8 years later and the world is not the same. donald trump is coming into a situation where china has an essence prepared itself for these kind of shopping off of, you know, proceedings. but it's, it's odd with in china itself and beijing,

their cautiously optimistic. they were very concerned about biden's ideological band to see his desire to push the envelope, especially with taiwan. and also that's now trying to seize all of these areas. so they're looking forward to seeing what he has to offer. i mean, he has 200 proclamations and executive orders. he's going to assign everybody's anxious to so that we all know the areas that were, you know, mentioned by refresher. but we don't know the specifics and how deep it's going to go. there is some feeling here that the reason he called shooting paying wasn't part to, you know, show that he's one of the boys that he's one of the powerful people in the world. but also because he's, he's been told that 60 percent terrace on china would be disastrous in terms of the american public. they're tired of inflation. they don't want higher prices. so i think he's positioning himself where he is as well. you know, i'm good friends of she so i'm going to give him a chance. i'm going to only put,

you know, another 10 or 20 percent or so in china and then uh, threatened to escalate it. and you know, hope that this can somehow not cause too much of a problem in the us. i think it will though the natasha. that is something he's known for. isn't it to go big with the threats as an negotiation technique and then to negotiate from, from that position. and as scott was saying, as we've heard from, i know he's had this conversation, but she's been paying and it seems that perhaps he will not impose 60 percent tabs on china. as he was threatening, he invited, she's been paying to his an alteration. how are you seeing things from the perspective of the great promises he made about how much he was going to improve the u. s. economy. will the promises that he made actually improve the u. s. economy or the global economy? so one of the bases understand about trump is

a lot of the things that come out of this. now they just sort of come into his head some pain usually. sometimes. sometimes he's just talking in order to distract from another scandal. i think one example that is the way he started talking about a annex in greenland and attacking panama. and that seemed to come out of nowhere, particularly the case with panama, was coincided with a release of a report by a special counselor jack smith. so some of the things that he says is really more a distraction tool solve it is about negotiating and he thinks when he can disarm and destabilize his opponents. in many cases, his opponents are actually his allies, that he's going to have the upper hand. and in some kind of a, you know, battle to, to, to negotiate better better deals. but i think it's gonna be very difficult for him

to follow through with all the things that he says he's going to do, even with the power of executive, or there will be pressure not to go ahead with the extremes, like 60 percent tariff on china understanding how damaging that will be really more so to the us economy because trying to find other trading partners and already diversified as economy before, during the 1st trump administration. but if he really wants to address installation of trumpets really serious about that, having an additional tax on all these really pretty goal and important goods coming in. whether it be from canada, from mexico or china, those are obviously the, the 3 biggest trading partners of the us is not gonna make things cheaper. and those were some of his big promises. so i don't think he can fully follow through on most of it. i think he wants the photo. i think he wants the appearance that he

made a good deal and he'll try to sell it that way to his base. scott, one of the things that he has achieved. one of the big things that he spoke about on the campaign trail, as he said he wanted a sci fi and gaza before his annual gratian. that's something that has happened. do you think that he will care about what happens in gaza beyond the 1st phase of this do when the is way the captives have been exchanged? that we need to put that important question you perspective by going back to what really happened? you're not is the soon after the november election, joe, by the, by the donald trump, to the white house beyond the photo opportunity. because biden's likes, everybody else knows that you play the trump in terms of his ego. and those are transactional president. he's a lot of, let's get a deal done by the time you uh, step up and take the novel loves on january 20th, and trump's credit because it would make him look good,

or he appointed or designated steve witt cough is me, at least on the way to work with the body people and of course, you know, they working with the chip shows the car is broken between loss of israel. goddess display is 16 bar which we should have had many months ago. but he doesn't know what that story about from claiming credit, altima and south obscures the fact is that we are unlikely at this point to get a phase to cease fire. and why is that? because the biggest determinant right now and phase 2 is not donald trump is really domestic politics. and when you have 2 hard right, ministers and these really catalog wants to who is lot. and taking the party out of the go. when they're saying that israel must return to war in 6 weeks and must establish a military government over gaza. it's going to be very hard for benjamin netanyahu to proceed with things to even if he wants it. so what does donald trump as long as the woodcock do that when they hit the hard truth about it is really the politics

versus the absolute devastation and joshua and the fact that her mom does not want to relinquish power. and i know, does that give us an idea of, you know, so to answer this call, it's question about what donald trump might do. if we look at every one that he has put in place to work on his middle east policy support smith in yahoo, of course, what happens with the school has an impact on the entire region and beyond. if you look at has a 20 so 5 support nathan, yahoo, his defense secretary pate, of pick a pete headset. thanks as well. should a next. the westbank does that tell us everything we need to know about what we can expect, or trump still capable of surprises. here, do you think i know, elizabeth i, i don't think there are any surprises. what he wanted was a show pony. he wanted to have is an alteration and say, look, i brought peace in to israel and home off. the fact is they have already started a position where they say, well, they're from us uh, brakes. the true,

as you know, all hands are off. i mean, his idea is he would like to see peace there, not because he particularly cares about the situation. he's a big backer of israel, but he would like to get the nobel peace prize. he nominated or got people to nominate him twice during his last presidency. and he's, and you said many times on the campaign trail, i'm going to be the peace president and things like this. you know, remember, obama got it and anything that obama had, he seems to want. so that might be in a mere ation in terms of his action, but i doubt it i, i would agree with the former speaker. this is a situation which domestic politics and israel is going to control. he's just looking for some way to say, well, i tried, i, you know, i brought them together and then you know, these terrible from us, people broke uh the, the deal and, you know, be israel's gonna have to take care of it. natasha as well as saying that he wanted a cx 5 before the an organization. one of the things he repeated during the

campaign was that he would end the russia ukraine war in a day. interestingly, he stopped saying that, and he said that it will take him, perhaps the 1st $100.00 days to secure a deal. of course, washington has great leverage with key because of the ministry support it provides ukraine. how do you see trump using that leverage? well, i don't see that he has any control over when the war ends in, in ukraine. i knew that he said, you know, as he mentioned 24 hours and he backed out on that and, and he's already admitted in his interview with time magazine that this conflict is far more complicated than the conflict in the middle east, which we of course know is incredibly complicated as well and, and the reason why he cannot resolve the issue in, in your credit is a more new credit because russia wants to control all of you current. there are not going to be willing to accept some sort of deal, even if you create this force to capitulate quite a bit of territory. and in fact,

the key kellogg deal, and key television, special envoy that trump's going to a point for you create in russia that deal wasn't really even official, but the foreign minister of russia survey log rob has already rejected that deal and says that he doesn't need rushes requirements, so unless trump wants ukraine to completely fall to russia, and that may be too embarrassing for his administration. i think he's going to find it difficult to get some kind of deal that both sides can agree to. and already the deal that he had put forward to russia was one that was incredibly favorable to russia. right, scott? and i know either of you can take this question, is it possible for trump to break suction and pause when pushing one to accept the seating, the territory that he has seized, and this war and even those uminski has said for the 1st time that he might be open to freezing the war along the common front lines. that would only be if the rest of

ukraine could join nato, which trump has said, he understands why ukraine joining nature. it would be unacceptable to russia, who donald trump knows less than my mom does without ukraine. she is 86 years old. and more importantly, donald trump is the hold of the bladder reproaches. he's been holding divine recruitment since 2016 and the russians helped his campaign. and since approaching, flattered him and continues to flatter him. now, the doctor wants to say, i'm the piece my for, etc, etc. the question here is people around trump, that is you have to work as natasha mentioned, the keys kellogg, the on way, got to look to mike wall, semester security advisor. possibly more to ruby of the secretary of state. and that is, will they like top, just simply accept the criminal narrative of peace talks, which means annexation the international community of accepting the annexation by

russia of 27 percent of ukraine. or will they say no, we're not going to let the line we're put in half that there is a deal which is pretty much freedom worked out which is being developed, which is going to be that in the short term, ukraine will accept the russian occupation body parts of the eastern, the southern ukraine, including crimea, and then return. you probably won't get a pass to nato and get a pass to the european union. but you've got to swear a lot of people to accept that you've got to square european countries on that. you've got to arrange the nature of course, and the boss are going with the powers at the white, china's in terms of how they're going to react. so not trucks, not going to bring the someone to ukraine because trump here is simply all bluster . the question is with washington, have enough adults in the room to be able to deal with this and not capitulate to effectively being a well caring water for the problem? i know, well, you know, the international community saying that and then for the annexation is not

acceptable, but the international community will not filled the military shortfall to ukraine. that donald trump can withhold rice. you know, that's correct. i mean the ukraine is losing the war. i mean, that's not something conjecture. it's just the way, way it is. but you know, putting can't really expand to all of ukraine who would be facing a hard and da physician that would go grill on him. he'd have to have a massive amount of resources there. to garrison your very, very large part of the country. so you know what it would put in wants is he wants to keep the territory that he's in essence next. and he wants to clear that the rest of your brain is going to be remain neutral. but you're not going to have the us missiles there, he doesn't want an open sore, an unresolved situation. so it's going to be very difficult to solve. but in terms of, of my colleagues point about washington. ok, you know, let's be real about this. what we're looking at is the 5th season of the apprentice

washington. let's look at the people who put on there are qualified, but they certainly are photo genic but, and they're also expendable. so he's gonna assign them cast. if they don't know what are the, aren't able to respond or if they defy him, they're gone. i don't think you'll do the you're fired bit. but you know, right. swami is already gone and we hasn't even started is 10 years president of these. this is the way it's going to go. he's, he's going to manage washington like he managed the apprentice. it's going to be a bit of a show, but he's always paying attention to the polls and anything that you know, slides against them. he's going to pivot. yeah, it's not that there's no ideology. yeah. natasha, what do you make of? i'm a say what i'm saying that there was no ideology binding the people that he has brought together. in fact, the only thing that looks like, what these people might have in common is a loyalty to trump. it does exactly what's happened that i mean he's become more

personally sick, similar to personalised dictators that, that i study that he doesn't really want to surround himself by those that are competent. and i have a lot of experience. he prefers fealty total loyalty. and that's really different than the 1st administration where there were some bar rose up, there were some people and it worked into the administration that had experience and and that told him no or steered him to do quote and put the right thing from time to time. but because he surrounded himself by the sick of bands, this is going to affect of course, the quality of intelligence is going to affect the decisions that he's making. and we're, we're going to see us increasing. we isolated with very little respect for international law and international institutions, and scott, human rights organizations including human rights watch, amnesty international have open sound and the alarm about what the 2nd trump presidency will mean for not just human rights women's rights in the us. but around

the world, i mean, trump has jump that he would be a dictator on day one. but given how he's government in the past, do you think he's really joking? a donald trump's will want to be autocrats. she admires those who not only flattery, but those who happen to be on across whether it's fusion paying, whether it's a lot of reports and whether it's victor or bonded hungry, for example, whether it's higher ball scenario in brazil. and donald trump does not believe in working within the system. he sees the american system as being a threat to him. and he sees human rights as being a threat to him. i mean, let's remember a couple things here to connect the personal with what's happening in terms of foreign policy. dom trumpia convicted. charles donald trump's also convicted fraudster. donald trump has been convicted of designation by the woman who he

sexually assaulted. so rights don't enter into one lot. donald trump does personally, and he doesn't seem to have rights when he looks at america for abroad. and of course, the tragedy here is, is america, which has, of course, has been very flores in the way that it is tried to promote human rights. we can't go talk about decades about that. what happens here is if you have a present to us, it literally does not only against human rights, but it's turning them apart. and those who are in other countries around the world who are suppressing human rights. yeah. whether it be in a asia, the middle east, lot america, they feel like they've got a free pass. there's no reason to listen to the united states. yeah. i know how do you see it because the us has long been criticized for not being completely genuine . when it talks about holding up human rights and the rules based on what to what does having someone like donald trump in the presidency mean for the us roland that

well, unfortunately on varnish truth is that the united states has been a rogue nation for most of its life, its only been at peace for 17 years out of 249. and it's not that much of a change member under biden. uh, you know, the pentagon was spreading this nonsense about the chinese vaccines in the philippines as costs many people their lives. and then when, when they were confronted by, uh by reuters, what did they say? oh, we do it again because it's a way of getting back at china. they did the same thing with the fake vaccine drive when they were trying to hunting for osama bin long. what is the result in anybody who's claims that they are actually didn't even for polio, was being attacked and killed? i mean, there are long term consequences to this pretending, but the us is the, you know, the better factor of the world, not one time o has not been closed. you know, you what, what do you say about the wars enough down to stand in iraq and other places you

know, somalia, you name it, u. s. has been a bringer of chaos. there's not been upholding the international order. it has been ignoring it. remember under binding the i c. c is being threatened with that i suppose. as of right, the question is does it have a leader who can undo some of that damage or natasha? let me put it to you. how much more damage with a trump presidency due to that keeping in mind that this can only be that this has to be his last to, to writing. so i would tell her that biding was trying to move back towards multilateral diplomacy. to what extent he was successful, people can debate that, but under the trump administration, it will get worse of me to, to quote a harvard law professor. dex goldsmith. during trump's 1st term, we never seen such an onslaught on international institutions and international law because he just doesn't understand the way international politics works. he doesn't

have any moral authority. he lies more frequently than he tells the truth. and all these things coupled together just the fact that also he sees his allies as the problem and not his necessarily us traditional enemies is going to make it much more difficult. and when the us has been added to most democratic, that actually does affect the level of democracy across the world. there is, is diffusion a fact that you see higher respect for, for human rights. and you know, stronger uh, electro institutions and levels of participation in representation. so it does really matter what the us is doing, but i think trump is going to form things on a very dangerous path. natasha then instead in coal test, the scott lucas and dublin. and i'm a tang and invasion, i'm afraid we run out of time, but i want to thank you all for this lively discussion. we really appreciate your time and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by

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the challenges here with the a timer of madison. and the top story is on audra 0 us president. donald trump is being shaking up policies at home and abroad. hours officer is an organization. we signed dozens of executive orders and revised maybe 80 issued by a former president. job id is also pardoned around $1500.00 people charged over the january 6 capitol hill, right? trump declared a national border emergency to stop illegal immigration is also signed in order to

end up right to citizenship, to 5 for children's of known the citizens and undocumented immigrants. i can try and, and the constitution is being challenged in court from pulled the us out to the potter's climate accord and declared.