to the voters bassinet has unanimously confirmed the 1st of president trump's cabinet members with detailed coverage. the owners are waiting to hear from trumps new administrations. decision on existing trade deals from around the world. the policy of total peace has failed to produce strong security results. these fed, strengthening the hand of arm through of russia and ukraine is still attacking each other's territory with no sign of a laptop on the battlefield. bought the return of donald trump as us president is creating new pressure on both sides to end. the war is not likely. this is inside store the

have a very welcome to the program on the clock. he said he could end the war and ukraine within a day if take he offers for you as president donald trump has found out it's more tricky than that. even the revised $100.00 day deadline he's given his special envoy. seems unambitious target the by the ministration on ukraine, more than any other country in the world. well, sanctioning of russia more than any other nation on of the spike that your biggest conflict since world war 2 drags on with the you and us diplomacy seemingly just abandoned for a man who prides himself, is a deal make a trump may see the will as an opportunity for an early foreign policy success on the world stage. so kind of the new american president to unlock a peace deal in bolts mind, huge amount of russia and ukraine. and what is the risk of this war? just grinding on and all the suffering that means for the people of ukraine and russia will talk to, i guess shortly. but for us, this report now from michael su shirts. russian president vladimir put in

struck a favorable tone towards us preston. donald trump saying he's open for discussions on matters such as russia's full scale invasion of ukraine and energy prices. very good was able to introduce to sure, but as a jump, we see statements from president donors trump, about his readiness to work together. we're always open to this kind of the earlier the us preston had threatened new economic sanctions on pressure. it's a failed to end the war in ukraine. the russian lita said the conflict with his neighboring country wouldn't have started. it's from what's president, may or should there be a we old is that a business like problematic, but holes with trusting relationship with the current us president. i couldn't disagree with trump that if he had been president, if they hadn't stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided. the ukrainian

presidents loaded me as lensky was quick to respond. warning that put in was trying to manipulate from get all your cautioned against any potent from the stokes on ending the nearly 3 your bull without ukrainian and your pin participation showed me there probably is showing estoppel. i received a report from the heat of the phone intelligent service on russia's military potential. it shows pollutants reading this to continue the war and manipulate the leaders of the world. in particular, he wants to manipulate the us presidents designed to achieve pace on confident no rush manipulations will succeed any more. preston from addressed the will the comic form in double us via video conference on the 1st day. suggesting the targeting or revenues would be the best way to get russia to end the conflict. i'm also going to ask saudi arabia and opec to bring down the cost of oil. so you gotta bring it down . if the price came down,

the rest of the ukraine war would end immediately. in nearly 3 years, the u. s. has located a $175000000000.00 in military assistance to ukraine. i will get the problem solved while on the campaign trail from pet promised in the will. within 24 hours of being elected, i will have the disasters war between russia and ukraine settled. but since his integration, not the keys, no more school has shown any signs of the escalating. both have kept out intense drone and messiah tax. we simply ukraine uno official said, rushing astride some. a rough mention in your keys on friday. can sweet people, an injured step? was rush just said, you create launch a 120 drones in the trees. 12 regions, including the captain must john trump wise and get singled. they pledge the new

us administration now says it's aiming to secure a peace dealer within 100 date of graduation. i'm showing on the inside story. now, under the, by the ministration the united states play the biggest role amongst all ukraine satellites and helping the country. and for the 1st time since world war 2, a european nation talk, the list of countries receiving american aid day the us to spend a 175000000000 dollars on minute tree assistance to ukraine since rushman fated. nearly 3 years ago. let's also say a significant proportion of that has gone to american alms companies. the war is reportedly funding defense, manufacturing enrolled in 70 cities across the us. i mean, all the sites is way ahead of the allies support to you crate on the battlefield. germany comes next with around $20000000000.00. the u. k, sweden, denmark,

and the netherlands. they follow each providing around $10000000000.00 in military aid to ukraine. the. all right, let's bring it, i guess now from the law being capital or regal with going to buy it landed reg isn't. who's an independent journalists and couple of of a european tragedy. how the western russia became enemies and kind come together again. and brussels is michael and persecute. he's a senior fellow at the atlantic councils. your agent center. and the form is spokes person for the organization for security and cooperation in europe, monitoring mission in ukraine, and in berlin. as steven no longer the chief diplomatic correspondent for europe at the new york times, and when i have to put surprises, welcome to fussell, i would like to start with this question. before we get into what might happen diplomatically. i want to find out where you will think we are in terms of who has

the behind at manage reg is in and read good. can we start with you briefly if you would? oh yes, i think, and it's clear that the rest, of course, is advancing. are pretty much all along different flores and so are you great, is lives in territory. and there doesn't seem to be our magic forms that wouldn't allow to stall this offensive. i mean, by that mr. i should try and buy anything. somebody's the last 3 years. and so it's very well this actually for steven, what's your thought? the land. and i think the 1st task is to try to get a cease fire line that holds, which means the russians can stop advancing the button ministration started. the sudden you crying a lot of land mines and the personal weapons to try to shore up their, their defensive lines. so, but russia with no history and help chinese help other help is pushing forward bit

by bit. so it's hard for me to imagine putting, wanting to stop at this point, to michael, often more than a 1000 days of all, must go, not relenting, and you credits on the back foot. would you say it is in fact what we saw, for example, where the for the past 48 hours is up buddies are up elliptic scenes and also in cuba as well. so what our panelists also describe that pulling on the, on the front line throughout ukraine, missiles and drones every night that are pummeling the economy even further. so, what i find diplomatically that is interesting is mr. zalesky is asking for quite a bit, not only from here in europe, european partners, but also from the united states. for example, $200000.00 peacekeepers including a lot of americans. and i think come with all due respect to him and his team, i think they are on the wrong wavelength. they have to realize that the out the

tide for sending troops and indeed sending more and just isn't there anymore in the united states. as we saw with the mr. trump and what mr. trump, the site will discuss the whole in a 2nd statement. but see what about the appetite for wars you is you perceive it for war in ukraine itself. while your credit is not going to stop fighting, i mean, clearly, if it's having morale problems to some degree, it's certainly having mobilization problems, manpower problems. it's a big country, but it's smaller than russia. and it is, you know, under going constant attack on its civilian infrastructure. it's electricity grid, it's heating systems. i mean, russia is trying to destroy morale behind the front lines. so i think, you know, it's a big problem, but i mean that you're trying to ins aren't about to get up no matter what happens . and i don't see this for kind of ending in some big total collapse victory.

but i've been wrong before. okay. and then what about in rusher is the will popular event, hundreds of thousands of people have died and they ward is not talking to in russia or i believe. and i, but cindy and the rest of the population sort of attempts to really agree to leap in this condition. and the government is doing his best to show the population term divorced in parts of the war. the life in russia and ukraine is just in comparable, the impact on society in russia and ukraine is, is in comparable. russia is running around an army of 5 problems here. is that a lot for a lot of cash? took people to find you, the ukraine, where is you creating relies on people who are mobilized against and we'll waive the matcher she would shoot when right sir violations the trustee. and on the daily deals of the firewall. mobilization which is known as was the vacation in your

brain, weren't capable of being caught industry that impacts into bosses. and so we have to wait until the front line right and the evident then the to see. so i would be welcome on so many front, michael. so now and to donald trump, the, the new, the 47th president of the united states, who as he would have it, had he being president in 2020. this will would have won the election to 2020. this will, would never have happened. would you agree with that? so i don't agree with that. i think of his own always in mister bolton's designs, to move on ukraine. he has set it throughout his tenure and even before i think what's happening here is we noticed that during the integration speech, mr. trump made no mention of ukraine. and i think that sends a signal to those of us to watch your grain in us relations very carefully. i'm i and other i was starting to have that feeling that mr. trump is preparing the allies and his own public for concentrating hemisphere directly. what i mean by

that is he will concentrate on the strength team that you as may be grabbing canada may be grabbing mexico who knows panama canal greenland, and then leaving, shooting, picking, and china to take care of that hemisphere pretend to take care of his almost to be our event plans and that puts the world of course, in a very dangerous place, because just quickly, we know that mr. clinton will go even further if he is not pushed back with a lot of force saving, do you agree with that premise? it feels that way i'm reminded a bit of george. i was 1984 only in the sense that the world was divided into 3 regional empires. and that's what michael is and away talking about. i think america's interest are much bigger than just the western hemisphere. china is certainly a part of trump's interest, and nato still exists. certainly you still exists and it's capable of pushing back

. but i mean i, i do have this sense from trump point to point know of a much more aggressive to almost careless imperial back to the future kind of town, which i think is quite distressing for many people. i mean, i would prefer to see him criticizing his allies less than his adversaries. more elaine and the thing is, trump is, i mean is all of everything that's been mentioned so far, but it's also a wildcard perhaps he can make the difference in and prove to himself as he's ready for tools with the president. oh yes, i think the kind of trouble park we potentially make a difference. and so i do agree actually with the trump when she is saying notes of the war would have been prevented. has she been elected the president? they have called genetics and uh, with trump administration,

and by them this person back in 202-2021 which have been um, which have been quite different. um the genetics in relations between a trump and so the asking between trying to push in and also to train a trunk. and so the ukraine focus started national, started the community in the united states, which essentially back started biden's campaign. and so there were some load when trump tried to care as a, as it investigate into providing uh, compromising information about so no time to buy them during, during the elections. so it would have been a very different situation in 2020. wow. and so what probably wouldn't have happened is that they don't skate ambridge, st. jude touring on this talk set of relations with russia, which point sided with staff biden's arrival in the, in the white house. so what,

so what happened now is again a very different genomics and we can think about the possible best scenarios, but trump has invested in that she's strong and so this, so at least you're trying to rupture something that denture is that? so she will do the same as for the entrenched or okay or so the, the kit will do the same as by to try and compare switch and insure, insure compromised of put into is not willing to accept. ok. that's really the installation. all right, so, so what do you make of that? because the trump is that need is the said it is invested in the promise of this and the, the patient said he's ready for talks to be a big deal with what you've said. you don't think that it's like he's likely to engage. i don't think so. i think cob pretend is going to manipulate the heck out of mr. trump. i think on the other hand, there's no floor to mr. trump subservience to people like mr. burton. but the other thing i have to say in response to the last time was comments was that

a lot of trump support is in fact, trump himself said that no more started on on his watch perhaps. but we have to also remind himself ourselves that it was mr. trump. that after the reluctance of mr. obama to move after clement was take a was mr. trump, who, you know, approved a lot of sanctions on rock. china is also mr. trump, who approved the use of those javelin muscles, which made a very, very big difference for ukraine at the start. so he is very, very vested in those, but again, i go back to what i said earlier. i think the, the sentiment now is to concentrate on his own battles domestically and not, you know, not requires you to get out of state as to intervene and a lot of other conflicts and like i gave them more. all right, so stephen, if that is true, and i think you, you, you broadly concur with that at your, of as role is very, very important. and now is the time for them to step up, right? yes. and when you talk to them, they say it's preliminary, it's split, missouri,

and i keep saying, well, it may not be preliminary for much because i think trump in his own mind wants to and what he considers biden's wars right now, obviously by them didn't start to war in ukraine, putting dead and it's not at all clear to me that putting wouldn't have gotten into try in any way, but maybe differently. if student could have had you on a co venture train that was neutral and stayed out of nato, maybe there wouldn't have been an invasion. that's hard to know. but i can see trump wanting a d o. i can see of this big meeting with boot and all of us tv newspaper, everybody, blog posts we'll, i'll get very excited about this meeting. and then either it'll be like kim john little and they'll be a lot of noise in kisses and nothing much will happen, or it's possible for tutoring will manipulate him. i can see the danger is that

trump things he can do the deal with putting over the hands of the plants and the europeans and somehow get a ceasefire and then turn to the europeans and say, it's all yours pals. you know, you want to protect your crate and you, you, you want to monitor this, these fire, go ahead, you've got the money, you've got the people, i'm busy with china, with taiwan, with us and canada, breeland, right? the from your perspective is, okay. and if we go perspective, if, if those thoughts do happen and put in trump, do i try and forward you deal? what do you think is likely that puts in would be prepared to settle for, to engage in a ceasefire. i think crap shack has spell that out quite clearly. they own their numerous applications on dozens of occasions. what it was uh, is uh,

a framework try similar to assembled agreements that fail to eps at the beginning of 2022. and this started over there for lots invasion, plus russell, it says john, kevin control all the territory that it's occupied between this spring of $22.00. and so now i'm so way i'm talking about so all right, and you've grayed out. so that is now going to join nato. and so the criminal ones, nato also confirm that there is no plan for, for your branch being products. and russia will insist on there are much small refraining an army and various limitations going on the arguments. but sir, on the other hand sir, um, i don't think there is a, there is an indicating that most one cent change of the machine,

or at least attention division by mail train means it's, it is ready to talk with zalinski out to our kids that have contracts up to the boys over. okay, and in that case, michael, let's put it the other way. we all talk about you crating charge you out rule. what would the president's lensky that ukraine's president, what would he settle for? yeah, well, as you know, i mostly based in odessa and i listen to a lot of ukrainians and you get a good sense of the sentiment and not being is that there is no way that they're going to agree for example, to drop their bid on. and for nato, as mr. put in, isn't says thing. and there's also no way that they're going to give up positive buddies, right? kind of song in addition to not spend a little hans, but no one in those 2 all bloss of want to live under russian occupation. they tell me in their own words that it's worse than hell on earth. they, you know, to live under russian occupation. so i think come, you know, mr. zalesky isn't a type bind because i don't think mr. brewton is going to move on then any of those

requirements. and then the other thing, even if there is an agreement who is going to be the grantor, isn't going to be turkey, is it going to be one of the gulf states? because if mr puts in, violates whatever agreement comes along, which he's famous for doing. so we'll base stuff in with points on the ground. i'm not so sure about that. what you shouldn't that be? you're taking the lead on that? yes, of course. i mean, they're close to starting here in brussels. you hear a lot of rhetoric from, from the you and from nato, about how in port and it is to defend you, crane. but they're just not a ponying up the resources. um, you know, the defense spending that nato is asking for, i think so, given what's happening politically here with the ship to the right. but also given what's happening economically, if leaders here could convince their constituents that if we don't stop the war and ukraine, it is going to hit you at the checkout counter at that supermarket gas bills. that sort of thing. i think they have to explain it much, particularly what,

what could be the consequences. stephen, if a see saw it can be achieved, is it inevitable? the line will be drawn, will have to be drawn between an independent and a russian occupied ukraine. and if that is something that ukraine sympathy wines, except where does that leave us? well, it's hard to look that's far in the future. because as i say 1st you have to find this line that holds which we haven't found. and ukraine has been unable to stop. the russians really come in again, it's environmental, but they are gaining ground. so 1st you have to stop of the fighting kind of a defensible so as far like and then you could actually have a conversation about what to do. i mean, i can see very much ukraine, 80 percent of ukraine, which is not under russian occupation being

protected in some fashion. but how is the question and for how long would it be able to join nato as partial it will never give up its claim on the rest of it sovereign territory including crimea, but the war can stop before that. and then we may just end up with like a frozen line. i mean, like cypress or something. but the big question is, who will protect your crate and do lake ukraine and there's a party pine, has some people say with weapons and training and sophisticated arms. so that russia doesn't want to move further. and how much does that cost to put in new york pen peacekeeping troops? and how many lensky summit, 200000 troops? that's absurd. i mean, nobody's got set many troops to put in, and that would cost the arm is the norm. this amount of money, just as nato countries are trying to build up, their own military is to deter russia. and then frankly thirdly,

to have your pin troops wandering around the tray and trying to monitor or police to cease fire without an article 5 guarantee it would be very, very troublesome. i think i can see putting, trying to test nato solidarity because it wouldn't quite be nato. it would just be nato country troops. so i think partly, partly the debates us less than, i'm sorry, is your opinion leaders have to convince their people. they're in a generational struggle and they're not doing a very good job of doing that yet. okay, it's atlanta and a generational struggle around, but the point is this is your explorer, isn't it? i mean if, if you crane news is say the baltics, poland, others, moldova, that will start to feel the heat when. and i think there is a lot of rhetoric to that sounds like it's and so i, that's true for rent or it's,

it's, uh, it's basically spread by people at investments in this conflict about. so what will happen if this piece is, is that, you know, it's probably not restaurant on some tour. there are trying to treacherous mountaintop and the board ex, it'll be just a piece of very easy agreement. and then the political developments in ukraine in the country, which will probably be you a very angry about the way it was treated just about the wage was deceived and was given all those permits this off to pharmacist about nader members should be your membership. it wasn't sign into the fight. and so the political process and ukraine, most of or we're probably move along the same line airlines as in georgia. it's, well, are they the people we will be moving towards that model for our freshman point of

view? and so uh, that's where it's huge function and that's that, so they have to pay during the school. wanted to achieve. so i don't think this is worth about to have future conflict with or not at night or how are validity. i think more people are afraid of is that the defeats are in ukraine of this whole policy. and that was implemented to the last years will become evident. it won't be that personal to speech. michael final question to you. i've given everything that we've heard and discussed, it would seem that president putin as the weight fund does me? yeah, you know, time is not on the side of the ukrainians. i mean, when you look at what's happening with the, as i said earlier, the daily a pencil on drawing strikes um, what about also the 10s of millions of ukrainians that i've left? i think the longer they're not able to come back because of these daily strikes,

the harder it will be to get them back to help rebuild the economy. and one more thing um, mr. trump tested a big favor. uh for mr. brewton by freezing, millet, sorry, billions of dollars of us id a to ukraine. since the start of the full scale invasion, the americans gave $37000000000.00 through us id. that's all being frozen right now . and this is it that, you know, being done to a country that has a $5000000000.00 a month delta set. so uh it is not looking good and i can tell you from personal contacts with your credit is uh they are very pessimistic right now about any ceasefire or turn around an economy any time soon. all right, well gentlemen, the coming weeks will give us a sense of direction on this. in the meantime, let me thank you for your contributions to i guess the, the rug is in michael pest of crew and steven orlando. thank you very much and thank you to for watching. you can find this program again at any time by visiting a website out. is there a dot com? i prefer the discussion go to a facebook page. that is facebook dot com,

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