and action, okay, foundations loving, an emergency response serves as a vital lifeline for many in desperate need. your donations can play a crucial role in alleviating suffering, promoting community wellbeing and contributing to the recovery joint ok foundation in its mission to support 11 and during this critical time, full now or visit. okay, adult tool 11. and this president has named a new administration side lighting his ball out for the 1st time in decades. but where does this leave? the group and its allies have long played a major political role in the country. and with this move osher in with a prime minister, cause a government to reform and salvation. this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian, instead of going to lebanon, has formed its 1st fully fledged government for the 1st time in more than 2 years. now, it's newly appointed prime minister must over say, a devastated economy, friendship political coalitions, and upfront jobs ceasefire between israel and his bullet. that expires later this month, as well, that has been left out to the new administrator and up to the us through a red line. and the group has lost its veto power known as the blocking so. so john has bottle remain a political force, a little bit of punch and shifting political landscape, bring about reform. when examined these questions without guests and just a moment, but 1st a report from lower con, with the words reform is the only puff to salvation. lebanon's new prime minister formed government for the 1st time in 2 years. top of the agenda of the economy and reconstruction often lost his rule between israel and as beloved the whole. now the

government must ensure security and stability and 11 on by fully implementing resolution 1701, enforcing the ceasefire agreement and pursuing is relative withdrawal from every last inch of lebanese territory. this must go hand in hand with reconstruction. has blah and it's on lights who have long dominated lebanese politics have be left out of the government after his bullet has been significantly weekend due to the events and the recent months. so this reflection of this balance of this change and balance of power is you can mainly see it because now this is bullet, i'm a do not have a blocking 3rd in the cabinet which they had used for several years in order to obstruct the work of the government has the law has the military weakens by israel, but still has popular support the us have been pushing to keep the group out of the new administration. everyone in this government who is committed to an end of

corruption who's committed to reforms and who are committed to making sure that his bullet is not a part of this government in any form. and that has bola, remains disarmed and militarily defeated. in late november, the us help to break or cease fire to end the fighting a deadline for israel and hezbollah to pull forces from the south has been extended to mid february. lebanon has been on the mounting, international pressure of to facing years long, political and economic turmoil not been on how the we are now in a phase of rebuilding this country. not only did we face a war, but also financial crisis and many other crises. now everyone should be working together to build the country and keep outside intervention on the sidelines. the new cabinet will now have to drop a policy statement, which will need to cost as though to confidence a government to may not please old political policies. the one that aims to brings

to better see where it's much needed, nor home for inside story. i'll just there on the . let's bring it all guess in romano, in lebanon. david would have seen the 11 an analyst at the international crisis group in general, but it's only lorenzo trump better, a senior analyst for the economy and use agency. and so i didn't buy roots. elijah manga an independent military analyst who specializes in the middle east general, that a welcome to you all the launch. let's start with you. for so long. a dominant force and lebanese on regional politics is, has fall off facing an existential threat. but yes, but uh we have seen uh this new government. where does she uh, on the present there were 5 ministers selected and approved by the prime minister, the president. i'm on the lead to that to, to speak up and has by law. so has the law has suggested and supported,

not enough. you need a did minutes. there's been an ebony, is government in the past. why it has the lights and it has direct cuz it has been these terry positions since 2005. it has also back independent or allied for goes direct present, just interest without being officially labeled as has blogs, members or direct affiliated military. but so this best, because a lot of the policy to maintain political effects ability and in many governments has been a lot was present. and this positive and this government has, will not, is also a president by agreeing on the nomination of these 5 minutes. however, it doesn't mean that nothing has changed. on the contrary, there is a change, the reformed dated dynamic that is completely different today. the as well that

doesn't have a strong christian. i, as it used to be in the past. and he's right, it's still occupying ball of evidence without any visibility that's going to withdrawal on the 18th of this month. so yes, this is the danger, the reconstruction is not show is not confirmed that any policy or any government is going to put money on the table or invest directly. and the as so many refugees . austin, without health. david, what do you make of, of that on? so how much influence over the new government do you think cause bullet will, will have what problems could he cause for the government? so this is a really important point that you make. and while it's obviously true that has bella is no longer a dominant player in the new government, it's still a significant player. and with its deadline the, the, i'm a move in. it has participated in selecting the new finance minister, which is a very important biased in any lebanese government. because simply because any

action the government wants to take, which involves a public expenditure, needs the signature of the finance minister creating an effective feature. so that is something that in successive governments has bella and its allies have clung to making sure that they laid the selection of the finance ministry. and it's for this reason. but at the same time, as elliott mentioned, there's a real motive for a full. there is no, it blocking 3rd. so no single faction has the capacity to threaten to bring down the entire government. and also, what has bella has conceded in this new government is selecting bowl 5 a. she or ministers now in the pasta has bella and its allies in 2000. and 6 in particular, said that because all she, all ministers had resigned that the government no longer had legitimacy to continue on living on the power sharing conventions. now in siri given that has bella and i'm a lead selection on the 4 out of the 5 ministers, it could be

a situation where even if did you were us, the administrators affiliated with them to resign. that nevertheless, government could continue with one extra as young minister nor aligned with the bodies. lorenzo. i'm going to get a logic in a moment to talk about what's going on within has bought at the moment. but we can safely say that it is facing internal of a whole at the moment and restructure with a we can do it wrong at an empty house by the regime in syria, with international pressure for it to be excluded from government will as part of do you think ever be the political force, it was, again, has it suffered a mortal blow politically, as well as perhaps, militarily? indeed, indeed, it's a, that's a very critical aspect that we should consider. the new libraries, governments formation, of course, signifies shifting the balance of power reflecting and diminished the influence for his blended scottish. oh, not on the level of them, but as you, as you mentioned in time, it, at least while i ended scottish,

i'm no longer at the block in sort of that of our right, but i'll have her as bullet willing to go online. i'd be very su, hold significant room on my over wirelessly. now, primarily 6 to monday and his own personal individual bought to him friends. he's capacity as a negotiate or potentially looks on his bullet tough remain significant. and this suggests that his bullet is operating under increased constrains, but still retains the level of start that adaptability. and as we've seen a plant on the late days of january, when the popular uh, she pays close to his bullet, moved back on the solar regions. and this wider has bought a lot, uh, shell community still embodied the so called a spring that was installed, that the, the resistance moved off of bullying is route with our physical presence along to

solve. so we should not ignore also the logic on and the culture of the buttons on it is a political, a dynamic, elijah, what's going on at the moment within his bottle. and what's it going to do with its remaining weapons with low direct influence in government? could use for see any circumstances under which has brought up might use its weapons internally, particularly if it feels that it's been sidelined or isn't getting its way. now, 1st of all, according to my information has been lost. it has a launch also. and then in that been on however, there is no chance that table lives going to use these weapons been timely or even against is read at the moment. first of all, this government has a life of one. yeah. and few months ended in may 2026. the on you are legislation, the elections, municipality, etc. this is where it has what allowed needs to that could activate and re organize

that side of the 2nd day. the set is on the boulders on these really sides have not returned fat for his beloved doesn't have a leverage against these really these to go on to foot that and endanger the libby me is a citizen of the south of having an end of a car body, this was why heads were lies, accepting all the violation of the ceasefire problem. this is really sides, but is more concerned about the weak construction. the head will not cannot direct weapons domestically because there are hundreds of thousands of sheets that support has the bulk of the society without home. so that is the main concern, and this is why head will not has not be read tiny 18. again, these really violations, 2nd date has been locked in, not stop the war against is read because has receive a strong head need to reform the communication,

the location it to understand how much weapons that has above. oh, that's the most important. the overall strategy or principle that has changed is no longer a region of the army, but only a domestic resistance. therefore, the weapon that has the needs is only related to engaging these really is on the ball. there's a space, right mains on the east that are traits, but no longer a tract ending deliver eve and how they have a we as in ease ray, therefore doesn't need this huge awesome that, that it used to have before the beginning of the, the war at the end of the 2024 when being hidden from is ready to stop in for a lot like these sort of yeah, they have to, to what extent will decisions about has bullets, military and political palm beach. i cannot at 11 on, but in iran without a doubt,

it's incredibly important, not just what has bella sees as a strategic pa fully, but also what the non sufficient is for has bella and its other allies across the region. and i don't think that will necessarily know the full answer to that right now, because the big moving question over the entire region is what moving coming, trumpeting. oh sorry. what will the current truck administration do in relation to it on will it for, for a compromise and trying to reach some kind of deal in relation to nuclear weapons and economic sanctions release, or alternatively, would enter into confrontation. so we've seen mixed messages so far from trump himself and from trump officials with the potential return to maximum pressure in terms of economic sanctions, but also carboned this to region, some kind of compromise. and naturally what the don sees, it's way forward williams and determine what data on wants to do it has butler. so he, if there's a move towards compromising with it on and the escalation,

then potentially it could support has bella in transitioning away from being heavily on the list here. and so this awards being a political act of a transition by the way, which has occurred with many lebanese political parties, whichever history of pain on malicious lorenzo. do you agree with that? to what extent this is paula at the mercy of changing power dynamics right across the region. right now kind of kind of remain a dominant political and military force given we couldn't iran, syria and a russian influence in the region? yeah, it's a good thing that even before these, the last old on these rarely escalation, i guess that's bolo, a bunch of god was never a murder emerg, bump it up to just allow me to republic the interactions, even that individual level between uh, i didn't come in a and how from the front of the where, based on sort of a,

the general idea or article but also be, or the level of discussion so, so that i was born on the field law about a she, i leaders include that side of the table with the coming a and discussed with him some original strategic a policy. and so without enough that allow, we shall not forget that individual to factor is a key access is a key aspect and use the nomic without hustling the flow of the table. iran may have more levels of power more, more impact on for one thing for the decision. but as you already mentioned, iran itself is on the defensive side. now you need to focus on domestic and they go see should issues with the us and as well, especially the, the coming back of the nuclear potential negotiations with washington. so i don't think that the iran, as nowadays the luxury of imposing

a new balance of power in level 2 principal. and this bullet to, as you already told, is so busy now in trying to reorganize and to contain the damage has been fixed by ease. uh, in the last small, before we pull them out in the discussion, let's just remind you of the level that has a unique, a power sharing system, which is designed to balance power among its different communities. the president who must be a man, i christie, and serves as head of states and canada in chief of the armed forces. the prime minister needs to be assumed name mostly and runs the government. and the speaker a parliament who has to be a she, a muslim leads, parliamentary debates and policies as well as playing a mediation role. but there are 2 political groups that are always tussled, overpower so much 8th collection made of christine and sheer members, including his ball. a late usually favor ties with syria under, on the march 14th coalition, a mixture of christian. and soon these who want proof of ties with the u. s. fronts and saudi arabia, elijah. so,

how does the shift community in lebanon feel right now? especially with the, has been a not playing such an active role in government. does hezbollah continue to enjoy the share community support? excellent question. mold and have a because they for you to try to. and when the us in boy uh from the presidential potters fix clue has fall off from the political life, which is not translated at the end of the day. i didn't know the nation of the government at the new government. and when a, just before the end of the war, the all politicians coming out in the street and saying, we should complete kate screwed the she represent that difficult. they stood represent $27.00 and bes of the parliament. and they have to be taken into consideration. so that she off field trip in by it's right on one side and about domestically all the policy that are close to us who's saying they won't exclude

those who represent the majority of this. yeah, because i'm on and hezbollah indeed represent the majority of the she ended up in. and so because of that, the more the all voice is saying we want to exclude the she off from the parliament and the government, the most sort of the battery, the, the among the population. even if many people were not very happy because of hezbollah, a box of patients and the consequences of the pots of patients and the war in support of god's uh, because of the devastating consequences. however, what came off to what brought the community together? david, a knife question perhaps, but i must, austin, can lebanon's complex system of sectarian power share and government ever be re, well, is it still fit for purpose? if indeed it ever was. is clearly what we've seen in the past several years, at least since 2019, but been in truth before that is that lebanon's

a power sharing system which was updated really to end the civil war and has subsisted until now doesn't work. and there was a lot of calls from reform minded lebanese to do away with the secretary and the system and, and the new system entirely. however, this is very relevant, of course, to what's going on right now is that we still have the traditional political parties. they have a stranglehold or the balance divided along secretary and lines and they've also had influence over the composition of this government. so this government will face that some challenges. and elijah is already mentioned, several of them being upholding, seized by a agreement which includes the development of has about the which it costs for also attracting cdp nights reconstruction. and the 3rd one which i'd like to add, which is relevant to bars, is the economic reform packages, which needed to deal with levels financial collapse. now the thing is clearly this

new government will need to secure with genuine cooperation and good faith cooperation from has spell in relation to implementing the cease fire agreement. it will need to work along side has bella and it's l id. i'm a movement inside is, is reconstruction aid, which will focus on communities typically aligned with them. now let's also remember the words that since october 2019, when 11 on to economic process 1st became a parent is being pushed back from across. the old, sectarian divides from different vested interest that are not really aligned, but has spell on them. indeed, resisting and blocking economic phones 11 on each one of those red things that actually unites lebanon's, precious, traditional, secondary and bodies. so for that reason, even if this government has the best intentions and even if it has, then it does to parents are fantastic technicians. and many of these ministries who are very qualified to do their job state needs to be received by restoration of trust between the different sectarian bodies. otherwise,

i'm afraid this of them government will not achieve it. some of the objectives, lorenzo, what's your view on, on that it will, its new government be able to even fully implement the cx, 5 the, i mean, how us do you go about this homing as well? will it be pushed back on it's reform agenda from the political parties? indeed the what's the pressure on these issue would be enormous. we are really seeing the, the us involved and coming to live on and imposing a clearer us is really agenda on the government of imposing monopoly of violence from the state. just the phone wants to embody, is one of the main challenge of these new government. we should not forget that with the election schedule of next year. time is of the essence for these government. the question is how much is this new copy that can generally of the

bonds in to addressed far like it's processed within this contain period of time. and the thing that behind that then the ceasefire issue and the is rarely me to tell you ongoing occupation. the main challenge for the, for the government is to set the interest form of this process and really define and go over and over and toward includes the citizen and the quality of result really breaking away from the rest. the got sick time division, the 2 issues that the job really to go that the relationship with gina is the us and you comp, golf, congress and the trust forming the 11 on into it more to get a charge on a seat isn't in bays the door and that's a state are very died to get a launch. it is leveled on his ami capable of keeping the peace, but us internally and externally in terms of manpower, money, skills,

political support. and if israel continues to violate deceased by leading up to be on february 18th, through his bought a retaliate, is it in a position and politically and militarily to do so? but 1st of all, the, all me, it doesn't have the capability to come from is read by any means. it doesn't have any weapon that can come from these relays. doesn't have an air poles that doesn't have old of fi file. all of these really is not made for that. now in done, the disability ami a is a sole source debility only because the politicians want that they don't want to go for a domestic pool. this is why the army is allowed to perform the job of police really because it has that knowledge number and it exists all over the country and it has been accepted by you citizen estrada. such now is the, the literally died the atrium functions. we're not going to happen. the answer is

no, not at the moment because of the rec, reduce because of the reconstruction, then because head will not wants to give it chance to this government to survive for a year and a few months, even if these really continue by. they didn't. the ceasefire, but there is a major problem here is the translation of this a section of foss, tennessee, and the 17. 0 one. is it the limit to the south of the d, dawning rubber? this is what has well not understand and claim that it's, it's only limited to the $17.00 oh $1.00 that, that the south or through the dining room, that ace. right. and the us all same with no, it covers the entire country. and this is why the debate that is not going to be solved by this government and the government is not going to these. um, has what a lot doesn't have the means. there is no, i've done that before that. and these are, these are not going to pull out from every single send team that the often have any

type of 3, because this is what the problem is. the problem is, david, how, how does the new government go about handling, particularly into that? so expectations of it, i'm thinking particularly of, of some of the us deputy envoy in the middle east comments about his brother in particular not being in government last week to which his bullet spokesman said that that was blatant meddling and lebanese a fast it's, it's, it's going to walk a tricky line has absolutely, it's a very narrow tide, right? that no upside down and now is ministers will need to try to walk. because on the one hand, as you mentioned, there's a lot of international pressure and focus on what's happening in 11 on and a real desire for this government to turn a new page and, and to implement reforms that improved unimplemented will for years if not decades . but on the other hand, new epsilon needs to maintain

a consensus sort of some kind of fragile consensus around his government for it to act. i mean, as we was saying before, the reality is that he's government on paypal doesn't have to face up blocking. so it doesn't face the sort of damocles that potentially the government could collapse at any moment if one single political faction pulls pulls out. but on the other hand, it will need a to with not just with the parties that have some influence over the government. but also with the bottom that we're picking up on, on what david was, it was saying that can the new government do all of this, are you optimistic model of domestic? but again, the face of the election next year would be were, but was a very great challenge with his government. that phase of mans socio economic challenges, not the industry acceptance that essential services like as or as care employment education for old citizens. that's a invasion that both i own and that i'm already put on the table,

but how they could trust all this challenging to a golden opportunity to stop, to establish a trust buttons, accountable interest, better. so system of reduce the, not the battery, but all of the services i need the key issue regarding the difference, both of the and clay in ballistic scenario is that you are facing since find the case a little that gentleman, i'm afraid we are going to end our discussion, many things indeed to all of you, david woods, lorenzo tom, better, and elijah 98th. thanks for watching. you can see the program again at any time just by go into the website where i will just 0 dot com for further discussion. you can join us about facebook page at facebook dot com forward, slash h a inside story, and you can join the conversation on x. i'll handle the is a j inside story from me, adrian said again as a team here in doha, thanks for watching. we'll see you again by the way.

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