offers a crucial light slide. these patients are clinging to a lot of things during months without profit shot with detailed coverage. thousands of pregnant women are suffering from malnutrition, the hydration and extreme stress conditions that put both their lives and their baby actress from the house of the story. these shots have been closed due to the fog. their owners have been forced out board, killed the lebanon. this president has named a new administration sidelining his boss for the 1st time in decades. but where does this leave? the group and its allies have long played a major political role in the country. and with this move osher in with a prime minister, cause a government to reform and salvation. this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian instead of going lebanon has formed its 1st fully fledged government for the 1st time in more than 2 years. now it's newly appointed prime minister must over say, a devastated economy, friendship, political coalitions, out of front jobs ceasefire between israel and his bullet expires later this month . his bottle has been left out of the new administration of to the us through a red line. and the group has lost its veto power known as the blocking so, so kevin has bottle remain a political force, a little bit of puncture and shifting political landscape, bring about reform. will examine these questions with, i guess in just a moment. but 1st a report from lower con what's the, what's reform is the only puff to salvation lebanon's new prime minister phone to the government for the 1st time in 2 years. top of the agenda of the economy and reconstruction often lost his rule between israel and as beloved. follow up with me

that the government must ensure security and stability in lebanon by fully implementing resolution 1701, enforcing the ceasefire agreement on pursuing israel's withdrawal from every last inch of lebanese territory. this must go hand in hand with reconstruction, but has blah and its own lights who have long dominated lebanese politics have be left out of the government after his below has been significantly weekend due to the events and the recent months. so this reflection of this balance of this change and balance of power is you can mainly see it because now this is bullet, i'm a do not have a looking 3rd in the cabinet which they had used for several years in order to obstruct the work of the government has the law has the military weakens by israel, but still has put to the support the us have been pushing to keep the group out of the new administration. everyone in this government who is committed to an end of

corruption who's committed to reforms and who are committed to making sure that his bullet is not a part of this government and any form. and that has bullet remains disarmed and militarily defeated. in late november, the us helped break receive via to end the fighting a deadline to israel and hezbollah to pull forces from the south has been extended to mid february, never known, has been on the mounting international pressure of to facing years loan, political and economic turmoil the, we're now in a phase of rebuilding this country. not only did we face a war, but also financial crisis and many other crises now, everyone should be working together to build the country and keep outside intervention on the sidelines. the new cabinet will now have to drop a policy statement which will need to cost as low to confidence of months that may

not please old political policies, but $1.00, the aim springs to better see where it's much needed. nora calling for inside story out there on the that's brain on guess in romano and 11. and david would have cd 11 an analyst at the international crisis group in general. but it's really lorenzo from better a senior analyst for the internally and use agency. and so i didn't buy russo elijah manga an independent military analyst who specializes in the, at least general, that a welcome to you will the launch. let's start with you so long. a dominant force and lebanese on regional politics is, has fall off facing an existential threat. but yes, but uh, we have seen uh this new government. where does she uh, on the present there were 5 ministers, selected and approved by the prime minister, the president, amman, the leader that did the speaker,

and has by law. so has the law has suggested and supported known, and how did ministers been then? if any is government and the pos whitehead belie itself has direct cuz he had military position since 2005. it has also back independent or allied for goes direct present, just interest without being officially labeled as has blogs, members. ready ready direct affiliated minutes, i need to respect because a lot of the policy to maintain political effects ability and in many governments has been a lot was present and this positive and this government has, will not. he's also a president by agreeing on the nomination of these 5 minutes. however, it doesn't mean that nothing has changed. on the contrary, there is a change. the reforms, there is a dynamic that is completely different today the as well that doesn't have

a strong christian. i as it used to be in the past, and he's right, is still occupying balance of governance without any visibility that's going to withdrawal on the 18th of this month. so yes, this is the danger, the reconstruction is not show is not confirmed that any policy or any government is going to put money on the table or invest directly and the as so many refugees. austin, without health. david, what do you make of, of that on? so how much influence over the new government do you think cause bullet will, will have what problems could he cause for the government? so this is a really important point that you make. and while it's obviously true that has bella is no longer a dominant player in the new government, it's still a significant player and with its ally the, the on a loser. then it has participated in selecting the new finance minister, which is a very important biased in any lebanese government. because simply because any

action the government wants to take, which involves a public expenditure, needs the signature of the finance minister creating an effective fee tardy. so that is something that in successive governments has bella and its allies have clung to making sure that they lead the selection of the finance ministry. and it's for this reason. but at the same time, as elliott mentioned, there's a real mood for a full. there is no, it blocking 3rd. so no single faction has the capacity to threaten to bring down the entire government. and also, what has bella has conceded in this new government is selecting all 5 she or ministers. now in the pasta has bella and its allies in 2000. and 6 in particular, said that because all she, all ministers had resigned, that the government no longer had legitimacy to continue on living on the power sharing conventions. now, in theory, given that has bella and i'm a lead selection on the 4 out of the 5 ministers, it could be

a situation where even if did you were asked the administrators affiliated with them to resign, that nevertheless, government could continue with one extra as young minister not aligned with the bodies, lorenzo, i'm going to get a logic in a moment to talk about what's going on within his book at the moment. but we can fairly safely say that it is facing in total of a whole at the moment and restructure we have a we can do it wrong at an empty house by the regime in syria, with international pressure for it to be excluded from government will as part of do you think ever be the political force it was, again, has it suffered a mortal blow politically, as well as perhaps, militarily? indeed, indeed, it's a, that's a very critical aspect. we should consider. the new libraries, governments formation, of course, signifies shifting the balance of power reflecting and diminished the influence for his blended scottish. oh, not on the level of them, but as you, as you mentioned in time, it, at least while i ended scottish,

i'm no longer at the block in sort of that of our right. but i'll have her as bullet split. you've got a line, i'll be very, uh, still hold significant room, all my mover wirelessly. now primarily 6 to monday and his own personal individual bought the new friends. he's capacity as a negotiate or potentially lives on his bullet. tough remain significant. and this suggests that his bullet is operating under increased constrains, but still retains the level of support that adaptability. and as we've seen a plant on the late days of january, when the popular uh, she pays close to his bullet, moved back on the solar regions. and this wider has little uh, uh, shell community still embodied the so called a spring that was installed. the, the, and the resistance moved off of bullying his route with our physical presence along

to solve. so we should not ignore also the logic on and the culture of the buttons on it is a political, a dynamic, elijah, what's going on at the moment within his bottle. and what's it going to do with its remaining weapons with low direct influence in government? could use for see any circumstances under which has brought up might use its weapons internally, particularly if it feels that it's been sidelined or isn't getting its way. now, 1st of all, according to my information has been lost and has a launch also. and then in that been on however, there is no chance that table lies going to use these weapons. been turning the lead or even against is read at the moment. first of all, this government has a life of one. yeah. and few months ended in may 2026. the on you are legislation, the elections, menissi product, the cetera. this is a way, has what allowed needs to that could activate. and we organize that side of the 2nd

day. the set is on the boulders on these really sides have not re ton fair for his beloved doesn't have a leverage against these really ease to go on to foot that and endanger the libby. me as a citizen of the south of having an end to become body. this was why heads were lies, accepting all the violation of the ceasefire problem. this is really sides, but is more concerned about the weak construction. the head will not cannot direct weapons domestically because there are hundreds of thousands of sheets that support has the bulk of the society without home. so that is the main concern. and this is why hezbollah has not be returning 18 again. these really violations 2nd day has been locked in, not stop the war against is read because it has received a strong head need to reform the communication,

the location it to understand how much weapon the state has and above. oh, that's the most important. the overall strategy or principle that has changed is no longer a region of the army, but only a domestic resistance. therefore, the weapon that has the needs is only related to engaging these really is on the ball. there's a space, right mains only live in eastern streets, but no longer threatening the levy in other areas in these re therefore, doesn't need this huge awesome that, that it used to have before the beginning of the war at the end of the 2024. when being hidden from these ray just started for a lot like these sort of yeah. tailored to what extent will decisions about has been us military and political power because i cannot at 11 on but in iran without

a doubt, it's incredibly important, not just what has bella sees as a strategic pot forward, but also what the non sufficient is for has bella and its other allies across the region. and i don't think that will necessarily know the full answer to that right now. because the big moving question over the entire region is, what will the and coming trump? sorry, what will the car and truck administration do in relation to it on will it for, for that compromise and trying to reach some kind of deal in relation to nuclear weapons and economic sanctions release, or alternatively, would enter into confrontation. so we've seen mixed messages. so far from trump himself and from trump officials with the potential return to maximize the pressure in terms of economic sanctions. but also i've been just to reach in some kind of compromise. and naturally what date on say is that it's way forward, williams and determine what data on wants to do it has by law. so he, if there's a move towards compromising with it on and the escalation,

then potentially it could support, has bella in transitioning away from being heavily on the issue. and so this awards being a political act of a transition, by the way, which has occurred with many lebanese political parties, which have a history of being all malicious lorenzo. do you agree with that? to what extent this is paula at the mercy of changing power dynamics right across the region. right now kind of kind of remain a dominant political and military force given week. and iran, syria, and a russian influence in the region. yeah, it's a good thing that even before these, the last old on these rarely escalation, i guess that's bola a box. you got it was never a murder. it might bump it up to the slimy trip. how big the interactions, even that individual level between uh, i think coming a and how from the front of the where, based on sort of a,

the general idea or article but also be, or the level of discussion so. so that was one of the field global she leaders include upside uh at the table with the coming a and discussed with him some original strategic a body see. so without enough that allow, we should not forget that the individual factor is a key access is a key aspect and use the nomic without hustling. the flow of the table you run may have more levels of power more, more impact on for one thing for the decision. but as you already mentioned, iran itself is on the defensive side. now you need to focus on domestic and they go see should issues with the us and is well, especially that the coming back of the nuclear potential negotiations with the washington. so i don't think that the around as nowadays the luxury of imposing

a new balance of power in 11th to a principal. and this bullet to, as you already told, is so busy now in trying to reorganize and to contain the damage has been fixed by ease. uh, in the last small, before we pull them out in the discussion. let's just remind you of the level that has a unique, a power sharing system which is designed to balance power among its different communities. the president who must be a man, i christie, and serves as head of states and canada in chief of the armed forces. the prime minister needs to be assumed name mostly and runs the government and the speaker a parliament who has to be a she, a muslim leads, parliamentary debates and policies as well as playing a mediation role. but there are 2 political groups that are always tussled over power. so much 8th coalition made up of christine and she, a members including his bola. well, they usually favor ties with syria under, on the march 14th coalition, a mixture of christian and soon these who want proof of ties with the u. s. fronts and saudi arabia the larger. so how does the shift community in lebanon feel right

now, especially with the, has been a not playing such an active role in government? does hezbollah continue to enjoy the share community support? excellent question. more than have uh, because they feel attracted when the us in boy uh from the presidential potters fix clue has fall off from the political life, which is not translated at the end of the day. i didn't know the nation of the government at the new government and when the just before the end of the war, the all politicians coming out in the street and saying, we should complete, said screwed. does she represent that difficult? they still represent $27.00 and bees at the parliament, and they have to be taken into consideration so that she off field trip in by it's right on one side. and about domestically all the policy that are close to us who's

saying they won't exclude those who represent the majority of the she out because i'm on. and hezbollah indeed represent the majority of the she ended up in. and so, because of that, the more the all voice is saying we want to exclude does she from the parliament and the government, the most, audrey direct tv, the among the population. even if many people were not very happy because of hezbollah, a box of patients and the consequences of the pots of patients and the war in support of god's uh, because of the devastating concert waste. ready however, what came off to what brought the community together. david, a knife question perhaps, but i must, austin, can lebanon's complex system of sectarian power share and government ever be re, well, is it still fit for purpose? if indeed it ever was. is clearly what we've seen in the past several years,

at least since 2019, but been in truth before that is that lebanon's a power sharing system which was updated really to end the civil war and has subsisted until now doesn't work. and there was a lot of calls from reform minded lebanese to do away with the secretary and system and, and moved to a new system entirely. however, this is very relevant, of course to what's going on right now is that we still have the traditional political parties. they have a strangle hold of the balance divided along secretary and lines. and they've also had influence over the composition of this government. so this government will face that some challenges and elijah is already mentioned, several of them being upholding, seized by a agreement which includes the development of has about the which it costs for also attracting cdb nitrate construction. and the 3rd one which i'd like to add, which is relevant to bars, is the economic reform packages, which needed to deal with levels financial collapse. now the thing is clearly this

new government will need to secure with genuine cooperation and good faith cooperation from has spell in relation to implementing the cease fire agreement. it will need to work along side has bella and it's l id. i'm a movement inside is reconstruction aid, which will focus on communities typically aligned with them. now let's also remember the words that since october 2019, when levin's economic process 1st became a parent is being pushed back from across. the old, sectarian divides from different vested interest that are not really aligned, but has spell on. i'm a indeed resisting and blocking economic phones 11 on these. one of those red things that actually unites lebanon's, precious, traditional, secondary and bodies. so for that reason, even if this government has the best intentions and even if it has, then it does to parents are fantastic technicians. and many of these ministries who are very qualified to do their job state needs to be addressed by restoration of trust between the different sectarian bodies. otherwise,

i'm afraid the system government will not achieve it. some of the objectives, lorenzo, what's your view on, on that it will, its new government be able to even fully implement the cx, 5 the, i mean, how us do you go about this homing as well? will it be pushed back on it's reform agenda from the political parties? indeed the, what's the pressure on these issue would be in our most we are really seeing the, the us a involved and coming to live on and imposing a clear us is really agenda on the government of imposing monopoly of violence from the state. just the phone wants to embody, is one of the main challenge of these new government. we should not forget that with the election scheduled next year. time is of the essence for these government . the question is, how much is this new copy that can generally of the bonds in to addressed far

like it's processed within this contain period of time. and the thing that behind that then the ceasefire issue and the is rarely manage the ongoing occupation. the main challenge for the, for the government is to set the interest form of this process and really define and go over and over and toward includes the citizen equality result really breaking away from the rest, the god sick time division, the 2 issues that the job really to go that the relationship with gina is with us and your congress and the trust forming the 11 on into it more to get a charge on a seat isn't in bays the door and that's a state are very tight together and launch it is leveled on his ami, capable of keeping the peace us internally and externally in terms of manpower,

money, skills, political support. and if israel continues to violate the cease by leading up to be on february 18th through will, has been a retaliate. is it in a position and politically and militarily to do so? but 1st of all, the, all me it doesn't have the capability to come from is ryan, by any means, it doesn't have any weapon that can come from these relays. doesn't have an air poles that didn't have old of fi file. all of these really in is not made for that . now internally, disability ami a is a sole source debility only because the politicians want that they don't want to go for a domestic pool. this is why the army is allowed to perform the job, offer this really because it has the knowledge number and it exists all over the country and it has been accepted by you citizen estrada. such, now is the, the only time the ation for our kids will are going to happen. the answer is no,

not at the moment because of the rec, reduce because of the reconstruction plan. because head will not wants to give it chance to this government to survive for a year and a few months, even if these really continue by. they didn't the ceasefire. but there is a major problem here is a translation of this, a section of boston at the end of the 171. is it the limit to the south of the tanya? rather, this is what has will not understand and claim that it is only limited to the $17.00 oh $1.00 that the software can be done with that h, right? and the us all saying what? no, it covers the entire country. and this is why the debate that is not going to be solved by this government. and the government is not going to these. um, has what a law doesn't have the means. there is no, i've done that before that. and these are, these are not going to pull out from every single send team that the often have any

type of 3, because this is what the prime minister promise david has. how does the new government go about to handling particularly into that? so expectations of it, i'm thinking particularly of, of some of the us deputy invoice in the middle east. comments about his bought in particular, not being in government last week to which the hezbollah spokesman said that, that was blatant meddling and lebanese a fast it's, it's, it's got to walk. a tricky line hasn't been absolutely. it's a very narrow tide, right? that no upside down and now is ministers will need to try to walk. because on the one hand, as you mentioned, there is a lot of international pressure and focus on what's happening in, in lebanon, and a real desire for this government to turn in a new page and, and to implement reforms that improved on implementable for years. if not decades, i'll put on the other end. no epsilon needs to maintain

a consensus. so of some kind of fragile consensus around his government for it to act. i mean, as we was saying before, the reality is that he's government on paypal doesn't have to face up blocking to doesn't face the sort of damocles that potentially the government could collapse at any moment. if one single political faction pulls it, pulls out. but on the other hand, it will need a to, we're not just with the parties that have some influence over the government, but also with the problem that we're picking up on, on what david was it was saying that can the new government do all of this so you optimistic model of domestic but again, the face of the, to the elections next year, what they were but was a very great challenge with his government. that phases, man's socio economic challenge is not the entry access to insight professional services like as or as care employment education for old citizens. that's a invasion that both i own and that i'm already booked on the table,

but how they could trust all this challenging to a golden opportunity to stop to establish a trust buttons, accountable interest verse. so the system reduced or not the battery, but all of the services i need the key issue regarding the, the difference bottle and clay in the lease the sonata is that you are facing since 90 k 2 level. that gentleman, i'm afraid we are going to end our discussion. many things indeed, to all of you. david woods, lorenzo tom, better, and elijah 98. thanks for watching. you can see the program again at any time just by going to the website where i will just hear a dot com for further discussion. you can join us about facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash h a inside story. and you can join the conversation on x, i'll handle the is a j inside story from me, adrian. so they can have the same here. and though have thanks for watching. we'll see you again by the

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