a crucial role in alleviating suffering, promoting community wellbeing and contributing to the recovery, join ok, foundation and its mission to support 11 and during this critical time. full now or visit. okay, i don't talk to the trans atlantic alliance full of pops. many new leaders have projected the us vice president's criticism of democracy on the consummate trade events quoted the question how that countries a government. so can europe still count on washington? this is inside story, the hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan. a wrist appears to be developing between europe and it's long time ally the united states. us vice president j. d events strong delegates of the security conference in munich when he lectured

europe on what he described does its retreats from free speech and shared values. his comments have been widely denounced as middle some of the unacceptable. so where does this leave transatlantic relations built up over the decades of to world war 2? and how could you respond to a reversal of washington's isolationist stance towards the workshop? we'll get to those questions in a moment, but 1st a report from michael after when you it's vice president katie vons took the podium at the munich security conference. he just i hope that's not the last bit of applause that i get, but we, we gather it was it's of course. so he struck a combative tone in a speech watched by stony faced european leaders and military bras, and their enemy, he told them, wasn't russia or china. what i worry about is the threat from within the retreat of

europe, from some of its most fundamental values value shared with the united states of america. things don't. he took a swipe at mainstream german political parties who refused to work with the alternative for germany. party because of its far right, n t immigration policies and even accused european leaders of silencing nick critics. not the many of us on the other side of the atlantic. it looks more, more like old and troops, interest hiding behind ugly soviet, their words like misinformation. and this information from the leader of europe's largest economy. and the 2nd biggest contributor to nato unequivocal rejection of on says comments on the state of democracy in europe. these stuff that's just small online, certainly not amongst friends and allies. we resolutely reject this is where our democracy goes from. here is for us to decide to germany's defense minister also

took exception to the vice president's remarks. i'm very humorous these 1st i don't know if i understood him correctly. he compared condition to points of view of with those in all father, terry and regimes. ladies and gentlemen, that's not acceptable. now, back across the atlantic, the man whom von said represented in munich was full of praise. for he made a very good speech, actually a very brilliant speech. yeah. you're of us to be careful. thank you all. good luck to all of you. a speech that is set in motion the fracturing of a decades old alliance that could well be on the brink of collapse. mike level l g 0 for inside store the let spring and i guess joining us from the drum and capital is jessica berlin, a known residency, the a fellow at the trans atlantic defense and security program at the center for your pin policy analysis in washington dc. is benjamin freedman,

the policy director at the american farm policy? think tank defense priorities and also in portland is out i phone k, the germany director for rasmussen, global a geo political advisory fumble. welcome to you. we'll hold off. let's start with you. you are in the overflow room in munich, along with some pretty high, high profile attendees. what was the reaction to the speech both during an off towards what, what, what did i get saying about it? and it's almost everyone was so most of the people were quite confused. so because everyone expected the vice president vance, to talk about ukraine, about security, even the chairman of the munich security conference. and i was in public radio early in the morning. he's expecting the vice president to, um, to announce that to us will withdraw our troops from your all and so on. and then he didn't touch upon foreign policy at all. so, and you could see it literally in the room that people are looking for right,

to lift and wondering what's happening, what is he talking about? so, and it took a while and the people then were left in a mix of confusion. um, desperation i would say that word song because there were some news i had of his speech that people were already spreading the information that he will not actually talk about foreign policy instead on putting domestic policy. and specifically addressing germany, which is going for elections next weekend. so in this regard you could also see the reactions later then from, from the chancellor and even the, the, the federal president who spoke right before, j events already kind of has and says anticipated what he might say and direction where quite yeah. so people where you can see the big question marks in the room saying okay, what does that mean actually for trans authentic partnership? um, so that was mainly the move in the room when i was there. so what, what people,

what read um, was there a sense perhaps that, but people thought that that's the vice president and his boss of living in some sort of parallel universe. yeah, that's pretty much so and so my conclusion from, from this was okay, so we've, so finally the domestic debate in the u. s. on freedom of speech, which he addressed the question of religious the question. and then i'll sense or shifts, or all of a sudden unhappy brought on a global level and, and all of a sudden. so we, they realize ok, this is not the classic transatlantic feel, partnership and indefinitely. not the way as it used to be in munich. so i'm going to do the mini security conference in 15 years and we have never seen something like that. so we have seen vice president towns in, in munich, and there were differences when we discussed foreign policy and security policy issues. but there was never ever a question that we might have different definitions when it comes to freedom of speech. democracy. what constitutes all these values we used to,

to raise during these conversations saying, okay, this is all the value based partnership, the transatlantic commission, and they do everything so and all of a sudden, so it's mike. someone is actually pulling the plug in saying, okay, so this is not any longer the basis actually in the terms of services we operating on. so we have a complete different says, and as you said, so kind of also we have a different definition which is completely offside from one, anyone in, in euro, basically what defined those terms. jessica, what paul's defense doing with that speech was he speaking directly to the public back home that he totally missed judge the move to the room? or did he genuinely mean what he said about your having an enemy within those accusations of free speech being and retreat to anyone who was surprised by dates, events of speech as clearly not been paying attention to donald trump and his team

for the past 5 years. i have no idea how european leaders could come to the conclusion that trade events would come to munich and suddenly be a different vice president. then he's been on the campaign trail and in the white house for the past year. so his audience, 1st and foremost, as always, is domestic and foreign relations are not the priority of the trump administration . their goal is to win for themselves, whatever that means in whatever arena they are. so the hands ringing and the shock and surprise we've seen coming out of munich, is really for me just indicative of the lack of preparation and strategic thoughts and action on the part of your p and leaders to prepare for what we knew was going to be much more erratic seconds trump administration, we saw what happened the 1st time around and we've had plenty of time to prepare

for an incoming administration that would have fewer guard rails and so called adults in the room. so this should not have come to a surprise for anyone, and also it should not be a reason for panic. trump always uses extreme statements to test the room, test the waters, see how people react, and then he adjusts his follow up strategy accordingly. and by freaking out over these statements that were so shocking and surprising for the people in the room, they're actually showing their hands. they're showing weakness. and this will only inspire trump and his team to keep pushing on without them. and to think that they can push your up into a corner when what really needs to happen now is decisive action. they concern the situation around by showing the trump warehouse that you're a business fact capable us of standing up on its own soil and defending european peace and democracy. benjamin, do you agree with the to what extent was francis the speech intended genuinely

intended as a wakeup call to europe, a hub kick with germany's a jimmy itself about to, to, to hold a major election was here some of, of, of accused him of middling, in his european allies, political affairs as well. i wouldn't go quite that far to say he's meddling or even that he's trying to support the far right in germany directly. i think the people like bands are genuinely angry about the way to term this information has been weaponized in us politics. and i think he's exporting that anger to munich with this speech. and, you know, there's a lot of resentment, i think, built up behind it more broadly about the difference in values. is he discussed with, with europe. but i think the hobb park receipt ought to be raised here. i mean the trumpet, ministration right now is engaged at

a sort of multi pronged attack on american democracy. and i don't say that lightly . i don't like. alarm is terms, but you know, they're shutting down a federal prosecution of a presidential ally in new york city, which violates the history of the o. j. and the, the sort of a hands off approach presidents of taking their, uh, legally you start being congressional spending power, the power of the purse in various ways they're firing illegally. i think inspectors generals in, in washington who have the oversight capacity in the government. so uh, the, the backsliding on democracy is taking place in law. i think that, i mean, you know, judy vance was right. i believe, to criticize romania for shutting down an election over some russian propaganda tick tock, videos. but he's working for a president who doesn't admit that he lost the 2020 election and tried to steal it . so the, the hypocrisy is so that it's hard for me to say anything else about it it's,

it's kind of shocking to me. but clearly, you know, i think you did have the domestic political audience 1st in mind, i mean, offending the overflow room with all due respect to all of this sort of, i think it intended is that the munich security conference is the sort of intended outcome of vance of speech. jessica: oh that's why i saw you both nodding vigorously that all of us will come to you before we. we brought in the discussion out to transatlantic relations in the future. more generally, i just want to ask you one more question about vans to speech was, was that intended you think as a riley and cried to the likes of all the lonely le pen? germany's a f d? yes, exactly. so has been said. so this is the, and this is important to understand. this was a connection between the domestic agenda and i would call it the mission. maybe even you can't call it the crusade because he was, he was all these religious references. he using his speech a very,

very unusual and unlikely for an european audience. so he gave his prayers at the very beginning to the victims of the attack we had seen in munich the day before. so usually a statement, even though the president she would give us condolence. so in that that was something actually you could see. okay. do. as jessica said, so they that taking the agenda are all the domestic politics. but they have an audience here. so it's not the people in the room where the people actually, the accused actually would have been excluded like the german as being party. so the chairman had excluded them because they were opposing peace talks with the russians between the ukrainians. but we haven't all the 27 europe in government or countries of the open union. we have parties like who, who actually all would share very much the gender of this administration in all the terms. and it would love to do the same with the democratic institutions as well. benjamin, just to describe this happening in dc. so they don't believe in democratic institutions

that have believe in free fair elections are in fact checking, they call it censorship. but it's actually just the context realizing of information, but the have a power lo true. they want to make people belief in and this audience is growing. and so in this regard, i would say this was also a mobile call for actions for the like mine. it's in europe actually now to not to be scared by all this a censorship as they called in and all this regulatory measures here. um, but actually taking the stage and taking the power and yeah, rolling the institutions as they are just demonstrating how it is. and in dc. jessica, i think we've already established this but to the use foreign policy chief kind of catalyst with rights. when she said the parents was trying to pick a fight with you or where will this lead transatlantic relations? and there's no need to pick a fight over this. as i said before, judy vance didn't say anything we haven't heard him say before in other contexts,

the european response here needs to be to perry. this thrust don't to react to the narratives of a breach. and transatlantic relations and stop handling. we need to recognize that ever since russia's full scale invasion, there has been this threat and divide. and ever since trump indicated that he would have a 2nd run at the white house, this threat has been on the table that a i salacious, america could return. so we need to move with this moments and remind american republicans who are pro trunk, but also deeply anti russia and anti china. that our defense relationship and our economic relationships are much more important than this current domestic political moment that the united states. and there are a lot of folks in washington right now who are wearing margaret hats, who's still know who the enemy is. and by over reacting to extreme statements from

the white house team, i think your p leaders are missing the macro of what's going on here. we need to maintain those ties and to strategically offer the trump administration winds, whether that's through trade deals or increased european defense spending, we need to start meeting some of the priorities the white house has demanded from europe for a long time. and especially on defense spending, frankly, so to show that we're serious partner, but it's the only thing in response to defense of speech that comes out of europe is lectures and more realistic condemnation of his comments. then i think we will see an increase in this kind of rhetoric and also an increase in the bi lateral communications between the white house and the kremlin. when do you agree with that? i mean, the one thing that the j defines did say, and that's, that's page that many european leaders cannot disagree with because they've been saying it themselves is. but that you must step up in

a big way to provide for its own defense in the future. as well, uh, i don't think that the trump administration cares that much if europe steps up or at least i don't think they should, might do is that the united states doing less to the fed, europe, hard labs, and they should let the europeans decide for themselves what they want to do in that event, i don't think the russian threat is that big country to a lot of what you hear. we see in ukraine, the russian military sort of bog down by a far weaker opponent. so, you know, they're not coming from poland, they're not coming for western europe in the united states is, could safely do a lot less for europe and the europeans can safely say, well, maybe we, you know, want to continue spending a lot more on a social welfare programs than defense, i think that's their right. and we don't have to tell them what to do. i think it's just important for the us that we you know, reduce our own risk and costs. and while we're at it,

try to get the ukraine ward shuttled. i think so, i'm very sympathetic to the trumping ministrations agenda in that area. but i think the picking culture will fights with the europeans. well, might be satisfying for van some trump, and even political useful for them in some ways at home isn't uh helpful to, uh, having a, you know, a friendly but more distant relationship from a defensive military perspective. oh, that 40 make of, of that. will the us do you think aggressively reduce its forces, presence in europe during the the during come trumps to what should your be doing now in terms of its own defense capabilities to support its support for ukraine and the threat posed by russia. you know, i think we definitely will see a reduction off the us troops and they'll just within the trunk turn bug within the next 2 weeks. so that was actually what people were expecting from,

from vans this page. and i think as we just auto creates, so this was the, the disruptive moment who used to surprise the audience with something completely different. uh, and, and distracting actually found the topics that europe should discuss. so this was, as i said, a wake up call for the global or for the european rights to, to raise up. but it was also a wake up call for the europeans, as jessica rightly said, actually to finally get their act together. and, and it was quite remarkable that the woman she even gave the best speech in terms of, okay, we need to beef of all our defense spending and bring all the uses as a walk. the talk actually was president zelinski. so he gave a speech actually in which everyone in this room or during the conference and all the floors actually agreed. okay, this is the kind of spirit other european leaders in the within the european union should have demonstrated on stage say, ok, this is now the moment so. so we're talking about this for 20 years and nothing has

happened. so president obama had said it is very mildly friends the way the president by then has said it to the europeans and still nothing has happened. and all of a sudden there was this kind of urgency, you could feel do it in, in the conference or saying, okay, so maybe now we need to really do something. and yes, and not for the sake of remaining a good relationship to the us. but actually for our own interest, because uh yeah, so we don't know what, what putting us up for, but at least actually, so the best way is to be 5. we have talking about 4 years now. jessica, on witness the us secretary of state, pete, texas. a for the cold water on the prospect of fully operation for you. great. and then we have the speech on friday, j. d events saying that us troops in ukraine, stay on the table with russia. doesn't negotiating. good faith. what are we to make a both apparently a contradictory statements,

that is precisely how it seems to keep russia and europe under toes. the white house itself doesn't yet have an end game strategy for this war. so they're testing messages. they're watching reactions. and also, as we know from the 1st trump administration, president trump himself can be quite erratic and change his mind on directions on topics based on more or less, who was the last person in the room to give him advice. he goes with his got sometimes. so the fact that american messaging in the past week has flip flopped so dramatically is actually good news for europe and should be reminder that nothing is set in stone. and that european action can still greatly influence the trajectory of the trump administrations, narratives and rhetoric. but by passively just reacting with statements, it keeps pushing in the kremlin much more opportunity to shape events. i don't

think we need to read too much into the statements of this week because everything at the end of the day will depends on what we do. and not what is said. and last but not least, no matter what statements come out with the white house, they do not dictate what the ukrainian government military and people will decide to do. ukraine is a sovereign nation of democracy and their action in this war. and how they determined to engage with russia or maintain the site will not be determined by a statement from the white house veteran. moscow is putting more money into its military than the whole of non russian york is spending on defense. according to the international institute for strategic studies, how does you get past the fact that it's been unable to reach a consensus on the threat the russia pose is and what should be done about it as well? one? uh, i would like to check that statistic. i'm not sure. uh no rush, it was last i checked rush, it was pretty far behind. non,

non us nato on defense spending in total. um, but um, in real terms, that is a place that adjusted the actual spending not percentage of gdp, but, you know, the bottom line is, i think that the europeans would be more unified against the russian threat if uh, the russian threats were more clear to them and i think it's still, you know, as bad as the war and ukraine has been, i think we're seeing real limits and russian military capability there. and as much as we hear things to the contrary, there's not a lot of evidence that ross is interested in some broader war. sort of trying to sweep into western europe like some napoleonic power like it or something like that . so it's, i think, clear to people who are being sober about it, that the russian pride is rather limited and that's undermining the, the ability of europeans to organize against. oh, that's uh, i need a reason of the brief onset here. if you can give me one,

does europe have the results is to protect itself without us assistance? yes, of course we have. so the thing is we have a diversity of weapon systems, which is an insane sort of, we finally actually would agree on which country is covering, which resources would be way more effective and impactful also. but this is now actually for the europeans to really talk serious amongst themselves. okay, jessica is nato facing next? essential thread should be it perhaps be be looking to open its doors to new members beyond europe and north america. if the us uh, withdrawals, i suppose, its financial assistance towards europe, or at least, what is it it down on? how should they to do that? nato is definitely facing an existential crisis. i think in the near term what will be much more likely and effective may be for sub coalitions of nato members to

agree quickly amongst themselves. what kinds of strategic concrete actions can they take together? we've already seen a nascent nordic ball take a polish british coalition. start to form their in discussions about joint financing and setting common targets together because they understand the russian threat very well. i think the idea of expanding internationally is definitely something that will be considered for the medium and long term. but as long as america is still a member of the alliance, any move to do so would be incredibly cumbersome. and i think 1st nato will be trying to handle with the tools that they have internally. and like i mentioned having the sub regional coalitions form on specific topics. i think the message is clear that nato needs to change and reform for the future. and jessica, when we spoke to you before the program, you said that, that an existential for the future of europe is on the way right now. what did you

mean by that? that only disagree with our colleague in washington about the level of the threat from russia. what's not at risk here is russian tanks rolling through poland. it would be much more likely a combination of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure combined with the targeted strikes via long range missiles on critical european infrastructure. russia has openly stated that they are looking to destroy the western alliance, and in particular, to destroy the countries who joined to your opinion, the nato, after the end of the cold war and escaped from russian colonial subjugation. this desire to return to the past is not just the radical. they are backing it up with guns and blood. and when i call that an existential threat, it's because it's precisely this you're at a turning point in the 21st century. we have had peace for almost 80 years now. are

we willing to put it at risk to appease a dictator and out of fear of the future? we have to find the same kind of courage that europeans found in the 19 thirties and fourties. it took time to build consensus. it took time to get the americans on board. but fascism was defeated in europe. and we are now in a new turning point in european history, where it's on us to recognize the threats as to behave with urgency and react of the we missed that many thanks. and to, to you old jessica, berlin, benjamin friedman at olaf. blanca, thanks for watching. you can see the park and i get it any time by going to the website that's i'll just do a dot com for further discussion. join us a facebook page that's at facebook dot com. forward slash a inside story out. of course. you can join the conversation on the x on handle the page, the inside story for me, adrian, for the team here. and so i will see you again, bye. for now,

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