to me into interpretations of powerful documentary jokes the story of how the geo politics of the post 911 while we were in the life of an innocent feel my suitcase phone, which is here meeting on ukraine without ukraine. president loading this event ski criticizes towards between the us and russia and saudi arabia. well, donald trump claims t for the war. the kremlin says vladimir putin and trump. i'd like to talk again soon. so what is it wirelessly? if you cry, this is inside store the hello again on chains, phase high level us and russian delegates gathered in saudi arabia's capital to discuss the war. the 1st meeting of its kind in 3 is bought to creighton in i'm

european union leaders want invited. ukraine's military is reliance on us weapons to fight rushes invasion. president trump's decisions are putting teeth on the increasing pressure, making it feel it's little mold in a bargaining chip, ukrainians, one piece, but not at any cost. meanwhile, present put in seems to have already divided the u. s. and e u creating the worst fracture. and the transatlantic relationship since world war 2 rushes, diplomatic isolation is over. so is it time for the european allies to great new economic and military strategies? mostly that will mean for ukraine will be asking those questions to, i guess in a moment. but 1st, this report from alexandra buys, for many people watching around the world, an extraordinary change and relationship senior officials from the us and russia together at an negotiating table for 4 and a half hours in the saudi capital on tuesday. the 1st meeting of its kind since

russian forces invaded ukraine 3 years ago, the law campaigning for the presidency. donald trump said he would end the war blaming keys for starting it. this could have been settled very easily, just a half a half baked negotiator to settle this years ago without isaac, without the loss of much land, very little land without the loss of any lives. neither the ukrainian president nor european leaders were invited to the meeting and re add a move that's angry to money. lot them years the loves the postponed a plan to visit, to saudi arabia on wednesday, saying he didn't want to with jeremiah as the topics both sets it flew by bush than uh, no, but all of this definitely doesn't have a positive impact on you crap. the less includes in the house of isolation and i think coaching and russia, i really happy because they're involved in discussions. and yesterday there was

signals the day of the victims. that's something you even so the us is pushing ahead, announcing plans to create teams for peace talks. washington says it will continue consulting keys and brussels. but direct negotiations will only be with moscow. and this made clear that all options are open in order to bring it into any conflict. there has to be concessions made by all sides. we're not going to pre determined what those are. the us has floated russia, keeping ukrainian territory. it's seized the lifting of sanctions on moscow and its re admission to the g 7 and the blocking of ukraine's long sought membership of nato. but i'm used to go to the as the president trump was the 1st and i think the only western leader as publicly and loudly said that the one of the root causes of the ukrainian situation was the input in line of the previous administration to draw ukraine into nato. no western leader has said that,

but he said it repeatedly are both the kremlin and the white house, say a meeting between president trump and putin is planned for the next month or 2 all while the war continues on the ground. after 3 years of fighting, it's officially claimed $150000.00 lives, but international monitors degree, the actual death tool is likely to be much higher. alexandra buyers, alj a 0 for inside story. the. well, let's discuss all this further with, i guess today on the program in washington, dc and a to leave and director of the racial program at the quincy institute and a member of the file club, the russian think tank and most andre clinton of political analyst also and full met director general of the russian international affairs council. and it doesn't go off in germany. mateo nellis political analyst and see of the german ukrainian

bureau a think tank. thank you all 3 of you for talking to us. a pretty important developments with regard to ukraine and the toll. let me start with you, how significant is what we seen and re add, not just for ukraine, but for the global or whether it's an immense significance that's it seems to come to ministration of wants to bring russia back into some form of a new security architecture. in russia, in europe, i mean it's not can be achieved. it would be transformative because this is something that's russians. i'm not just russians. i mean, many europeans as well as hope for since the end of the cold war, but you have not achieved. but of course, um, this depends on the success of the peace negotiations on ukraine. and there is an enormous amount which is still not clear on certain things have been

decided or rather actually just recognize because they've been, it's clear so many years such as a new credit in neutrality. of course, so many other things about the details of the oven. eventually piece of them and remain totally unclear and we still don't know for sure that such a settlement can be a treat. andre, this meeting last is just over 4 hours. but how important do you think could be the repercussions going forward as well? uh, judging from the initial reactions that we covered received here in the most cool uh the solution, the seal, so more or less, uh, uh, heavier with the outcome, whole this meeting, of course. so these up to me is, is qualified, so they don't want to inflate public expectations. therefore they argue that we are just in the very beginning of a bit along the road. and they also emphasize the importance of change and the bi

electronic relationship, specifically the relationship between the united states and the configuration. a lot of emphasis is put on the reservation of the diplomatic dialogue. i. and i think that on the ukrainian settlement there is probably less to missile and uh, less uh, information that uh, there are some sides uh, can share at this particular juncture. all right. all right. and you, you seem to suggest that playing it rather cool in moscow, but this must be very good news for fort brewton and his government. well, you know, again, you know, i don't want to say that they moved the east pessimistic about the, the clear to tied to manage public expectations. not to create impressions that we're moving towards a new reset. and but the overall or the action that is clearly positives, and this is a very ethical departure from the earlier comments on the u. s. foreign policy. and

even though the foreign policy over the top of the business, please. okay, not to you. they all worried about this. i think it's fair to say where you are in germany and across western europe, a quote to you from joint you've lives in the form of a french foreign minister. it's a reversal of the state to the will since 1945. we do agree with them. i certainly would agree with that. and we, europeans, we just are taking it back by the astonishing speed of what appears to be the normalization of the russian federation. again, after pretty use or intensive diplomatic pressure by the sanctions military, supposedly ukraine recede of the ending of the united, you know, wisdom facets to bring about and then to this one ukraine and of course talks his thoughts were, were to be expected. but then now happening that i wouldn't call them the go, she shouldn't say that these are talks between russian america over the heads of the premiums over the heads of your things. and that is certainly worrying for us and raises alarming and loving amount of questions. and that's all i excuse the pun,

but trump has already given away some of his trump concepts and t, here in terms of negotiation. first, just the fact this to the folks took place at this level off the over 3 years. this effectively ends rushes per ah, status ends its diplomatic high selection. well, i wouldn't say that all of the tools i have to take place at some stage. and the unit time is also in ukraine signs. and this will, i'm going to, the russians are advancing the ukrainians are suffering very fast. and there is a risk that we don't know how heavy budget has been discussed by western end of the soap ukrainian collapse. so if you're going to decide on piece talks there's, there's no point in the spinning the mag to might as well, you know, stop them as a high level and get home with them. but i think it also some of these, your pin see, is a great key, exaggerated. i mean uh,

it's from 1945 to 1991 ukraine was part of the soviet union. and soviet forces were in the midst of germany on unit 50 miles from the ryan and the french folder. doug, just thinking that we're going to go back to that uh, this will end with a it came from ice, a ukraine's by the way, i think it's also with say that of course, uh, any imaginable stuff. no, i mean, unless, of course you crate and does collapse competing with this, how really will be fall far short of what preaching out for when he wants this invasion in 2022 of those in terms of controlling for ukraine. but also in terms of nature, refreshing territorial ambitions for us all but, and that's all he keeps, we think at least some 3rd street, possibly old territory. so his invasion is being rewarded. that is a,

a notice of principle that we normally happen in international law, or is it, i mean, the un charter says you're not allowed to evade other people's countries. so what did we do against a key when it's invited cyprus in 1974? did we even expand it from native? no, we did not. i mean, the thing is if you want to expelled russia from the tire tree, it's has taken the ukrainians, have to wait on the back and sealed and drives the russian side, which they come to. and if they go on trying to do it, they would eventually destroy themselves. or of course, we can go to war with russia. but every nation of government, including the bite and the ministration and all of your pin. so set the, we're not going to do that. so at some stage, one simply has to recognize reality. let's have your take on that. recognizing reality, that's what's going on here. but the yes, again, these with tools with no ukraine. okay. very, very,

very 1st round. but no ukraine even invited to the tools i fundamentally disagree with, and that's all here because this war is not just about ukraine is about, you know, the european piece florida reached out nowadays and treacherous, obviously. and if to reward russia by accepting maybe even the you are accepting, forcing your credit to accept the occupation of an exceptional sum up with the territory territory. so it would completely destroy the what's left of the european piece order. and it's more, it's not just about your clients about the, about us, it's about principles of changing boat as by force. so that's why it's important to repel the russian aggression. i agree that you know right now your credit is not in strong position, but by forcing it into hastily agreed to it talks and may be in making deeper concessions with further we condemn. so we have to ask ourselves, what is at stake, and is your opinions are, are i'm trying to find answers and we get to that later. but it's worrying that the americans turning inward to china and europe has few options,

but just continue to spill to claim ukraine. let me tell you that we're not accept the forest deal. that is, and you go, shaded over the heads on dry things moving very, very fast. if you look at the phone, coal between trump and to, to and that was on wednesday, the 12th of february, 6 days late to the talks. and we had happened the now trump is talking about may be meeting of putin face to face before the end of the month. so there are less than 10 days left this month. and it's interesting, it's actually the kremlin, but it's working that back. so you may not be possible to organize it in that timeframe. well, my guess is that uh, donald trump might be in a hobby, but uh, loving it puts in is probably not. uh, because uh there are some authorities uh, assumed that the time right now he's on the aside. they continue advance and involve boss that i am not done successfully to full. you can then use up to the

course regional that i can send the ration. so i don't think that they feel that there is a sense of urgency. they would like to be a assignment to meeting with americans a to having this root can go saw and to sort out not only uh, the ukrainian problem, but the other problem is because most from the washington. so i think that uh though they do not want to delay the meeting, is there is no such sense of urgency in most court as it probably is in washington dc. it's and that's all i mean the, we knew that be an economic component to this. and the possibility of lifting sanctions, but the official statement from the state department talks about historic economic, an investment opportunities in, in bringing a piece. i mean, is this a bit premature? that would be those arguing that given russia was the aggressor, we should be talking about russia pay reparations. oh,

this is where the europeans will have to be for which in schools, when it comes to reconstruction, ukraine. and when it comes to a, i would strongly advocate not ending sanctions against russia, but suspend says to have something to hold over russia's head if it does resume aggression. but really, um that has to be a carrots in any piece because the i should just have to be carrots as well as sticks. i'm. i'm suspending sanctions. i'm resuming economic ties. is one of them. i would say the one thing which was being category 2 objectives of buy um, ukraine and government, and quite rightly is this extraordinary proposal buy from that america should get its hands on a boat. and in effect, the whole of ukraine's mineral reserves that by actually a coating, trunks, calculations, least getting phone more for america,

then america has different. so you train in a well, i mean that, of course is absolutely unacceptable. your view will not much a they the mineral plan. i mean i spoke i was in munich at the security conference for the weekend. some europeans was saying to me, this amounts to extol, should not have a quote to you from the full. a swedish probably missed a call built blatant exploitation, and it certainly looks like it ends as an excuse, no mandate assignment way 300000000000 or 500000000000 worth of ukrainian minerals and read us some of which of the on russian occupied territory. so there's an even for painful past which already delivered a that's a non starter. but i, i generally believe that it was a smart idea by the printing side to prepare well from scott, a mentor of incoming administration. last year, they develop the piece plan victory plan, and they also included this aspect and knowing that it would appear to trump and

certainly isn't in a ukrainian interest in europe and interest to engage americans in exploitation of ukraine resources. but it has to be a fair and balanced deal. it cannot just be americans being paid for past age or into your cleanings really want this to be part of a broader agreement. they want this to be part of the security arrangements and one's real security guarantees maintaining, as may. they may be fragile ceasefire. without that, we cannot talk about resources or any piece to audrey. if we look at the possible benefits for russia economically sanction being lifted. and as i said, of the state department, talking about economic, historic economic opportunities, this couldn't have come about a time. could it for most go because where you live that you can tell me. but my understanding is the russian economy is really hurting now. double digit inflation, interest rates starting to get 21 percent the highest in 2 decades. well, this is an item, but to be fair to this one has to say that to the us making the big system has

demonstrated spectacular resilience to the professionals. like i'm on big sanctions . the macroeconomic situation is to allow them to control the to model have a shortages of we do not have unemployment. uh, uh, the exchange rate uh is, uh, uh, not really disasters. you know, that's one of the reasons why there are some products steel stands behind the leadership. because some menu options to save does not feel the pressure of the war . but of course, a sanctions bite. it would be a home to say that they did not have such a good option economy. i and i think that, uh, the problem that the doctor has is that, uh uh, it's like i moment relations uh with the, with the ben primarily on the relations with you or not with the united states. and even if they're nice to listen to all these sanctions, which is unlikely,

the same sections might still be the uh, in depth and live that will be detrimental to the long term future on there as an economy. as i said, i was speaking to a number of european politicians. i mean, in munich, the weekend, and they all said to me, they're still somewhat confused on a toll with the us plan because you have different members of the delegation telling different european leaders, different things about where this is go to go up at the top. so you had mike waltz, the national security advisor, steve would cough the special envoy note that was general kellogg, who supposed to be the special ed board for this issue because mr. whit cops, the middle east, special ed boy. and of course, secretary of state marco rubio. and this might an adult be a, was just telling you a little bit about the secretary really be because he used to be a sent it to and he thinks they've changed his position on ukraine. let me just play a clip, a clip of what he said back in 2014. they made up this excuse that somehow the

russian speaking population in the region was being oppressed and attacked and, and wasn't danger. and so they needed to intervene even to this day, they still will not admit the military role that they're playing on the ground in front me. so in addition to violating this international norm, which isn't outrages behavior, they have lied about it and think they can get away with it. and the point that i'm making is even the 21st century. a country is allowed to invade a neighbor, lie about it, and lie about the reasons for it, and they can get away with it. without significant costs, we have created a dangerous precedent. and that's all i mean, can you see why some of the europeans all confused? because they, they all getting different messages, not just historical messages from said it's a rubio, but i'm told getting different messages from different members of the trump team in the end. does it only trump the masses? what are we supposed to be in response to rubio statements in which you just quoted?

i mean, every one of those things going to be instead of a us invasion of iraq. so let's not pretend that russia is unique in the international regression and defiance of international law. but as far as the trump administration is concerned, uh well, i mean there are 2 possibilities, both of which by the way could, could be true of the 1st is that as we sold very much in the 1st trump administration, it is a mess. you know it's, it's a dysfunctional, a kale take to have different people with different views caching with each other. a more positive a look at it would say that there's an element of paying good cop bad cop. uh, you know, some of them say, oh, we need a good relations with russia quickly. other say, box of rusher is not, you're not actually willing to make peace. well, we can intensify sanctions and so on. i mean, if, if that's what they're doing,

but of course that's classic negotiating. i do. andre. one of the things that wasn't mentioned publicly in re add, but we're hearing privately, is a possible part of the plan. is, is often an initial cease for getting ukraine to have elections. now i assume that is going to be something that we built, welcomed in moscow, where they keep criticizing or questioning is the legitimacy of presidents lensky because he's official to him, is run out. oh that's exactly right. so you look at the official narrative, they argue that seems the to him of the level is deep, expired last year. the landscape can no longer assign any agreements on behalf of okay. and before. yeah. and you deal with key that's inside to be sure that the, the key for the suit is legitimate. that's why they insist on elections prior to

sign. and you kind of a political sense of the month with a genuine leadership. of course we'll understand that it is very difficult to to have elections so right now, um, but uh may be a, there is a possibility to kind of elections between a ceasefire and some kind of a final disagree months. but uh, what does zalinski do? now he tried initially off the trump took office on january the twins to be very diplomatic. that changed this week in munich. he, he was much tough on saying he didn't like what was going on since the realities now said the trump is living in a dis, information space and a circle of this, this information. but then trump is also attacking him on the, on the old police saying that he, it was his fault that the, that the, the war started in the 1st place. what does it lensky do? now? it is actually disturbing to hear russian narrative screwed out speed. and refuses

by the us president was wrong claims for percent approval rating items and from said that the nice he has, that is absolutely wrong. this is really what we know. studying russian propaganda is what is being repeated. so it's boring for the ukraine has a weekend and it has to play this weekend very well. it has to connect with the routines and make sure that electric ukrainians are not against collections. european sign favor of collections, but the conditions have to be there in order to execute those and the conditions. i'm not, you know, just there i'm in germany in the us. i guess it would be the same. on the master law, alexis a very difficult to uphold, and that means the millions of people are had to feed the country millions into european union, the 1000000. so more than a 1000000 servicemen. so that setting the front by so just to think about the practicalities of elections in the absence of any sort of security guarantees is

impossible. so. so this is an sky nice to engage the americans and say listen, we don't see a plan yet. the ukrainians in your consent and heard any one tours of a plan yet we should near the desire to come to a quick ending of the will. okay, but what is this? how is it being done? what is the role of ukraine into europeans in this process? if you want americans to view americans, one to europe tends to pay for this, then at least they have to be part of the conception. and again, ukraine would not accept any deal in greece. they are not part of the making of the plan. so you really have to sit down and come to an agreement on the basic principles of what a future agreement could look like. and that's all i think we'd all agree that zalinski now has a very, very weak hand. in negotiations, he's going to have to rely on the europeans. what do you think of the chances of the european stepping up and, and, and that being any units from the european side. i mean, the era tends kind of goes and, and we'll know dr. continue the economic and military aid to ukraine. box

unit, the power is meeting went back home was you knew the trying to propose a, your pin peacekeeping force for ukraine was a, i'm afraid, complete failure because of the other european countries including even had a, you know, which is you, prince biggest supporter of somebody said that they would not provide troops or others to do stuff on the bushes. pm said they would only do so. if this, this force was guaranteed by the americans, which the americans which trumpet already the trumpet ministration. doris said america would not do so. your pin, the new york and options all now limited. but as i say in the course of the unit, the critical european role is the economic future of ukraine and ukraine's ability to move towards membership with the european union actually goes to something that only the europeans can decide on and,

and how. and that's just something which the russians have accepted, which must be guaranteed and in a peace settlement on which those, if this can be agreed to. um this does give ukraine a poss towards membership of the west. in many ways, the more important part of the membership of nature, andre, uh, all that concerns that in russia, of a situation where you crane to fights on with european support, but no us support. well, of course there are concerns that so you will be in the assistance to jane, tell you what to go. and the 4 of these 5 contents continue. however, i think that the, the perception that in the solution is that you will need the unit in the system so continuously to not to change the whole my mental which is to say the new k as a speech has impressed. and you get, when you see it towards a set,

it could have an answer on the exam, then thank you very much. indeed. thank you to our guest today on inside story. and it's all leaving on dry, cold enough and not to, you know, as comprehensive coverage on the one you try and continue 0 now to 0 with detailed analysis to help website out is there a dot com is that we'd like jo views and ideas go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story, or find us on x while we all at h a inside story. i'll see you here. good, very soon to learn from me james base and the team here, please stay safe and well, bye bye. for now the, the nature of 9 made catastrophes. ali ray explorers by severe weather events or resulting in other words, think devastation. the variety of human factors means their intensity and impact is a purely natural and the politics behind normalizing climate changes of west effect

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