the just as of most always on the be the same for be totally marston's. here we are the ones traveling the extra mile where all the media don't go. we go there and we give them a chance to tell their story. the hello, i'm adrian instead of going on, this is counting the cost on al jazeera. you'll, we can look at the world of business of economics this week. donald trump terrace policies are starting to take shape. the president says they'll help make america prosperous again. boston critics, one of the measures could push off prices and cost americans that jobs us inflation has increased unexpectedly raising the stakes of trumps targets. could that tie the us president terms and how will the federal reserve reactive prices continue to

rise? trump says the measures ends up leveling the playing field, the blue shots of the rules of the global trading system, uncomfortable trade organization. take any action to prevent the un i for i a terrace for terrorist, same exact amount. that's how donald trump build reciprocal countertops or other countries during his election campaign. and he's moved to implement them, potentially as soon as april. the measures come on top of the types imposed on china, canada, and mexico and on metal inputs and more likely to come, including on cause and semi conduct as the president says, the duties will price out imports in favor of domestic production and collect a lot of money to help reduce debt, but he's of knowledge. the prices will rise, at least in the short term. now that could turn into a headache for trump off the inflation rows unexpectedly last month and for the federal reserve as it navigates the tricky part of forward for interest rates.

laura com reports. if they charge us, we charged them. the words of us president donald trump, he said a team lead by his normandy for comments that country are so calculate was the terrorist on country world wide. this means charging countries the same import taxes as they charge the us, the details of which will be delivered to the precedent by april. this is going to be the thing that makes our country really prosperous again. and this is going to want to be with pace down to $36.00 trillion dollars. and this is all in addition to the tab already imposed on canada and mexico and china and still an alabama input. but it has thought condemnation across the globe with exit warnings that it's us citizens that will bad the cost. i mean board by the fees in directly at facts on the exports. why?

because when in the media to go to stop coming from other countries and you'll pay higher dieties for important intermediate towards the cost of producing products and all will go up. so it isn't directly through lactose, it acts on the attic sport. so export declined due to illness will go down. trump says a tower system as it stands is unfair. as the us import taxes a low a, them, it's trading partners. in 2023, it's have an average external terrace of 3.3 percent. the case was 3.8 percent. the european union, 5 percent mexico, 6.8 percent. well, trying to charge more than twice of that of the us at 7.5 percent. the number of shoots up with india, it's 17 percent from says the test will create more american jobs. and the us can see the prices would change. he says he'll mitigate any initial impact with that.

just like tax cuts do you regulation and putting down can see the costs. but in january us inflation hit a 7 month hi and with prices continuing to rise x. but say it is unlikely, the federal reserve will lower interest rates any time soon despite president trump wanting it to do so. i would tend to say that also the consumer confidence data imply that investors and consumers are getting a little bit nervous about just how bad inflation will be. how sticky will it be and how the fed will be slower to lower interest rates, which overall, i think puts a damper on things. there may be also cases where the us has to lower its charges on individual goods. use even charges less on milk, for example, while the charges less crude ported trucks want it such in the process of changing

all terrace based or reciprocal challenges will be complex economist degree. there's uncertain how this will affect the average american nor cons accounting. the costs out to 0, but all terrorists really inflation rate. let's take a look at what some economists to say. typically charnessa viewed as measures that lead to a, one off increasing prices. but remember, it's american companies the pay the tax on imports, and they tend to pass along higher costs to consumers if they do so, inflation goes up. economists deutscher bank say that the most likely scenario is the businesses could pass along many huff of the extra cost and higher consumer prices. on average, the federal reserve bank of boston estimates the core inflation could rise by 2.2 percentage points. if a 10 percent levies imposed on imports from the rest of the world and towers on chinese imports rose to as high as 60 percent. while the us based non partisan tax

foundation says that trump to target from mexico, canada and china implemented what amount to an average tax increase of moving to $800.00 per household in 2025. now, industries and consumers in different countries based on certainty, over trumps terrace, to protect the citizens, nations could challenge the measures of the world trade organization among other steps. but do trump's reciprocal types as a general principle, violate w t o rules. but according to the trade body, member nations are allowed to impose tactics on impulse which can differ depending on the item being port. so for example, a nation can impose a 10 percent levy on rice imports out of 25 percent target on car imports, but they have to extend the same basic rate to all members. egypt, for example, wouldn't be allowed to impose a 2 percent duty on wheat coming from russia, but a 50 percent one on wheat coming from ukraine. this is known as most favored nation

principles, but when 2 nations sign a free trade agreement, they don't charge tariffs on goods passing between them. but do maintain charge of those coming from elsewhere. let's forget our panel of experts from los angeles, which one by william lee chief economist of the milk institute from washington dc returned by will. mcbride, also chief economist of the tax foundation, added oxford in the united kingdom in golden, professor of globalization at oxford university gentle welcome to you. we'll. let's start with you. william lea, uh president, trump terrace inflation. re all the ultimately go to push inflation higher. you know, i think there's a lot of confusion between the definition of inflation and the rise of the price level price. the definition of a town is by definition, a rise in the price of imports because of any kind of tax that's being put on. now a one time increase, the price level will raise prices by whatever the amount as it goes up,

but inflation is a continuous rise, the price level so. so by definition i tariff, one time application, the term will not raise inflation for that year for that moment. when the prices go up, yes, prices go up. but, but we see from the 1st in position of the trump tower. so the rise in the actual inflation rate over 3 years is less than a quarter of a percentage point to the tower. so. so no, it does not raise inflation. well, what do you make up that inflation ultimately helped president trump get elected. he promised to cut the cost of living for americans could inflation do you think become something of a headache for president trump? to what extent could inflation end up overshadowing trumps 2nd time? but i agreed fundamentally with the assessment from william there that the inflation is really a monetary phenomenon. we learned this from milton friedman years ago, and we can look at the recent history again, what happened with the, the inflation surgeon,

during the pandemic had nothing to do with tariffs. right. and had everything to do with the over spending by several trillion dollars from the federal government. and that was explicitly on, backed by any proposed tax increases, but rather dusted financed and supported by federal reserve purchases of the debt. so that's, that's the, that's where the inflation came from it, but i do agree that there is a temporary adjustment in prices and some fluctuations that do can occur as of the tariffs are passed through to consumers and businesses that rely on those imports. it. um yeah, but it see if nonetheless, there are certainly the there is deficit. pressure is ongoing in the us for sure. and there's a lot of uncertainty relating to policy dealing with deficits. a lot of uncertainty across the board on policies coming out of the trump and ministration. the

uncertainty, i think it could contribute to inflation over time. there's uncertainty about how the federal government will will rain in its budgetary gaps. and if there's not a concrete plan put in place very soon, i think that does contribute to inflation. so yes, net. net would be laid out the uh, the, the feet of, uh, president trump. and certainly there would be a come back to haunt him if he's doesn't deal with it properly and bear with me. okay. okay. get to you in just a moment. but i just want to go back to what, when he laid los angeles to, to, to get some reaction to what we just had. the, a lot of details brought up a whole bunch of topics which i hope we will explore in our, in our conversation. but getting back to inflation, a rise in the price of imported peanuts or, or whatever it is that what we're importing, that will raise that price would be nice. and or if it's aluminum and steel, is used to manufacture cars that will be put into the prices of all the subsequent

manufacturing. but let's not forget a rise, a rise in a tower afraid. it doesn't necessarily mean that the consumer pays all of it. the incidence of the tariff can also fall back on the export because if a country wants to export and participate in selling into the united states marketplace, they may be willing to lower their price is just for the privilege of being able to sell a large share of their output into the us market. so there are 2 places where prices can change both of the export aside and on the importer side. and there's a lot of room. and besides, people can also substitute if you, if any fighters find that the price of aluminum is, is, is become extraordinary high. those try to find other products of your plastics and caught it and then, or the or of material to substitute for aluminum. so it's not necessarily the case that we find all of these prices going up. i think most of the economist has talked about these price increases. have make clear assumptions about how people don't really substitute the use of these products. and i think of, you know,

the full analysis is very complex. one is very hard is, i think people under emphasize the, the, a huge amount of uncertainty, the rise of prices, those estimated by various economists and trade foundations and where they are spent on this issue of a tire. so they've good idea or math idea. well i, i think a very bad idea and i was so back to this uh with william and, well, who's on role the sanguine about the impact on us consumers and price is. that is the case that over time, people might find substitutes that might be manufacturing substitutes. but the as things take a long time to work through the system, you don't suddenly start manufacturing your car or your peanut butter in a different way. it takes time. and so i think for at least the 1st few years off to these types of implemented, we will see inflation rate increases. we will see the 2 higher prices that's i

think going to happen at least half of the times is likely to go into higher prices . and over that time they will not be much substitution. it's not only a monetary phenomena that obviously it contributes, but it's also about the supply side. and so it didn't cover it. it was also about the supply side, the closing of many factories and the difficulties of getting a p, p, and other equipment that was needed. so and this, the shipping back drugs, the risk of holes in tariffs is that it leads to tire of escalation. so you don't just get a one off increasing terrace as i'm william, is assuming. but you get, the more you get a ratcheting up others engage in terms of increases. and then you enter a tit for tat escalation in taps. and that certainly would be in flushing the it would slow growth, it would lead to interest rates coming down much slower. and not only in the us

would consume is software with the us economy sofa. but of course, globally, this would have a very negative impact on global growth, and it would affect jobs and livelihoods around the world. william, i'll come back to give you a run of a plot, reply to that in just a moment. the 1st of the let me find out what will made of that. i fully agree and the great risk of this terrorist approach to resolving this or that issue, that the term for ministration has, has tried to address trade deficits or the value of the dollar, etc. and there's, there's a whole series of rationality kind of rotating. but at the end of the day, it's clear. trump himself just really likes the terrace. but the great risk is a world wide tre more. and there's certainly the, there's certainly a lot of historical precedent for that. that's what happened a 100 years ago in the us and worldwide with the great depression. that was

a, that was exacerbated by all accounts by a increase in tariffs in the us. and the retaliatory tre, more. the very beginning of that uh that, uh, at that episode in history. so we learned our less than after that. and we, we began a long period of decades of reducing the tariffs around the globe. and really embracing free trade in the benefits of trade. and so i fully agree uh, going back to that for getting that history. repeating the mistakes in the past. um, yeah, and engaging in i and another trade war is very, very destructive and dangerous. and we don't know where it is and, but as for the impact on price is that, i mean, yes, that can, if to the extent that tariffs continue to ratchet up in a back and forth retaliatory series of events. and yes, the,

the price is step up with each with each retaliation. i agree with that, but there is, of course and into it. it's an unfortunate that it end of reduced economic growth reduce trade were reduced to standards of living. but i would not call it inflationary phenomena. that's just a terminology distinction there. okay, what am i so you shaking your head, it's mining the what. what did you disagree with as well? i think it's salt use. you've just see a demonstration of the case where you scratch any economists and mentioned terrace . and the 1st thing they also resort to is the smooth holly car or something that you thirty's, where reciprocal terms are put on and rather be territory tires are put on. and we had a, a massive trump in the amount of international trade and re edit exacerbated, but it caused the global recession of the 1930. what's remember, president trump is using carlos as a policy tool for the comic and non you can only policy goals. what presenter has

done with charles has to say, look, we want to talk about ways of improving the trade framework for the world w t o. in the multilateral trade agreements that have been put in place since the 30s have really not birdwell in 21st century. where we haven't to, which will property and differences in, in scale economies around the world. so let's talk and bring us, or bring everybody to the table and talk about the types of issues that we need to level the playing field for trade. what we see instead is discussions of all we're gonna have it towards our tablets and, and, and, and, and have trade wars and have the end of the world as a almost certain outcome. i think we should, we recognize that present trump is using tariffs as a way of bringing people to negotiate and negotiate seriously. and because it is such a powerful tool, it's used very traditionally and, and i think the discussion was this time which differs from the trump 1.0, where his focus is on by level deficit said and, and trying to, to,

to reduce those. he's really has a wider agenda for using tears and which is to bring people to the bargaining table and say, look, let's settle things in amicable way for both sides. and by definition, would you have negotiations? both sides will reach an agreement that makes both sides better off. so, so i think on where, where we're, we're reaching for historical analogies that really are not suitable in this situation. and what do you make of, of that is from using reciprocal types as negotiated into all his reciprocal types . a breach of w t o rules is the w t o even fit for purpose in 2025. i think he's taking his lead time uh to the system. it's not on the on tyrus. of course. it's in different domains as well. um and i think that's predicting that that is simply going to be a negotiation and everyone's going to be better off. i think is like aerobic

assumption to say the least not to us. consumers will be better off and i don't think people will be better off around the world. so. so if this substance in what is threatening and base seems to be very high levels of task, it will be extremely detrimental. i don't think others are going to simply back down a few threatens it. i think we're already seeing from a number of countries reciprocal trial types being introduced. the w t a has been absolutely how strong by the us, principally in recent years, because it refused to, for example, the point, judges to the appellate quote of the w t o w, to call it the built out of by the us of the general agreement on trade and titles off the 2nd level, transform meetings at w t. i very much and most atlantic project too, because people saw the benefits of trade in the post. second global era. the 1st,

the undermining of it. i run, i agree, has also been done by with us. it's not a good organization that has many say it is, but it's the best we have. and i think the onset to the problem is that the very 1st is not to close it down or to break all the rules or to not to the point, judges to it, but to make it work. and of course, that will happen through negotiation that will happen through the key shareholders, members of the w 2 coming together principally in the us, your china and a couple of others and making it work. but that's a very different approach to what we're seeing now, which is not within the w t of framework, which is often in breach of the w t of framework. so the w here is the best we have . i think it goes in country while at the director general of the w to is doing a fantastic job, but under impossible circumstances. and that's not her fault. that's because the

members of the w to, i don't wanted to work well, i'll get to you in just a 2nd but, but, but what am i can say disagrees with what in was say, what, what do you disagree with as well, i think the one thing that we should remember is that the difference between the present from approaching present biden's approach, which really has favor this multi lateral approach of getting trade groups together is like getting everyone to the bargaining table and negotiating together. in one large group is always difficult because there's always the journey of the one already, right? there's always that one or 2 countries, especially emerging markets, like china who hold out and, and preventing you from being settled. and essentially you trust things out. and so you reach this small little core that everyone agrees with what kinds of troubles folks on the 1st semester. it 1st im impressions was now is the use of bi lateral and regional agreements to try to reach by that will deals. and by definition, a deal makes everybody better off because you could always, you know, not make a deal, right? so, so of course you going to settle for something. and by the use of the diag bilateral agreements, you can reach agreements much more swiftly and target the agreement to the needs of

the 2 trading partners, or what the smaller group trading partners with his original agreement or not. the failure of w t o, it really shows up in the huge number of free trade agreements that have popped up because vo does to handle the trade issues adequately for very many, many trade partners. i'm most we have regional agreements. we have by level trade agreements, we have a world of distortions, and we should always remember that we're, we're talking about adjusting things in a world where we already have distortions. the comments call this the theory. the 2nd best is none. the sort of the case that when you add a tire for reduced her, you make things worse off or better off. one of the things that you have to remember is things are done in a, in a complex fashion. and find that only goes here is just by definition or faster and are tailored to the needs of the tree partners. and that approaches is i think, has help president trump beach a lot of agreements and, and really has forwarded the agenda of make not just america. great,

but make the world great again because we are able to tailor supply chains, diversified supply chains, and reduce the kind of single sourcing vulnerabilities that was shown to be sold. devastated during causes so. so i think the, the notion of having this see, i know this is the imaginative world of, of you know, everyone in the negotiating together a large, you know, large groups and harmony. something has never happened. and, and, and i think in the real world, the view, the fast business approach at present from has been much more effective. but, well, i want, i want to come back to, to inflation for just a moment even if inflation rises. as president trump says it will only in the short term that could complicate passes for the federal was a trump, once interest rates low, how will the fed respond? you think going forward? and it's generally remaining that it's, it's the trunk of policies may hinder the distant relation process. i didn't indicate that it's worth enough to hold rates study. well,

president trump continue to respect the feds independence if he doesn't get his way on low interest rates. well, there's a, there's no predicting present trumps behavior uh, relating to the federal reserve of exactly it. i mean he's prone to surprises and in this domain for sure. but we've seen these uh these 2 primary care characters. uh uh, turn powell and uh, president trump interact years ago and present transfers term. and what we saw there was the, um, uh uh, powell was very much um, uh, in support of defending the independence of the, as to sion, the federal reserve against any sort of a, you know, job owning from president trump and the, including by raising rates in 2018. 2019. very much against present trumps

public. uh, you know, admonitions and then so i think there's every, every indication that you know, these 2 characters of their history indicates that they are when they disagree, the federal reserve will maintainance independence. the president will have to respect that i think, given, given our institutional framework in the us, all right. and of course to empower is up for re appointments next year. and so that, that, that's another story. but until then, i believe the power will continue defending the institution. i'm, i'm sort of, i'm sorry to interrupt you what we've, we've got about a minute and a half left. i just want to get on the answer from you. and i hope how dangerous a moment is this for the global economy, if you like. can you see any path through which trump's policies could actually

promote better trade and, and global trade harmony, you know, i think this is extremely dangerous. we moved from a world where we, i think so when, when we saw a tremendous growth in the world since the building will came down in the 1990s to early 2, thousands. we so great success. countries that were pro, becoming rich. we saw the us economy doing very well out of it and out of cheaper consumer goods out of investment out of trade. and now we moving into a world where the presence of the united states seems to think we're not in a win win. well, but in the 0 sun, well, now the goods, if someone else is doing well, the us is going to do badly. and i think it's very misguided. i think the us depends on a healthy world and a vibrant global economy. and then the global trading system, that's fine, brent. so i think there is a danger that we get into a very negative scenario. it hasn't happened yet. and that's why i think it's very important. those counseling the presidential, the united states council in to try and preserve what has been

a fantastic be effective system, not only for the us, but for countries developing. else we have caused in many things that need to be fixed. the institutions ovarian perfect, but they better than being destroyed. we could continue this discussion on show for, for at least an hour or so gentle. and i'd, i'd love to get with him and we'll try to reply, but we're out of time. many thanks indeed for, for being with us. all 3 of you, we're really will mcbride and in golden. great pleasure. thank you. a i'm, that's all show. so this week, if there's like to comments on anything that you heard in that discussion about a finnegan on x trying to remember to use the hash tag a j c t c. or you can drop us a line causing the cost of elders 0. don't bet is our email address, as always, those plans email if you online at our 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to one page and then you'll find individual reports links, even a top episodes for you to capture. but that's it. so this additional comes from the

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