to austin, intertwined for over 30 years, rushing around me was a, me just say to and 8 times prime minister until his assassination in 1987 alger 0. well tells the story of the cover on the family's influence on modern lebanese history for the civil war. sectarian division and foreign interference level homes, political families. the career ami dynasty on now to 0. 5 thing is intensifying an eastern democratic republic of congo. the one in the back to m 23 group is making further territorial advances. so with diplomacy failing, what are the risks, the conflict may escalate into a know the regional war? this is inside store the

hello again on james bays and the democratic republic of congo. anxiety is growing in the capital can shasta london bank am $23.00 rebels are advancing in the spreading out across north and south t bu a now aiming for the city of vera. this is happening. it's such a rapid pace that it's starting up. memories of events of 3 decades ago. many regional plans are involved including uganda, burundi and south africa. and that's causing concern. the conflict could spread be on the deceit. can m, 23 rebels, push all the way to control some more on this in today's program, which we begin with this report from dmitri. but then co, a severe mental dealer there can be in the avita. everyone is running away, says the man filming this video as gun fine as to the local village of fighters. urge people not to panic. as companies army troops retreat from the area,

london back and 23 rebels are advancing on this town by lake duncan mika, the board as balloon the about 80 kilometers south of because of the rebels took control of goma in january. and then bukosa and southern keep 2 weeks later, the pays at which m 23 has been advancing. has a lot of people in the capital contrast to 1500 kilometers away. the government must take its responsibilities to view how many functions unrestored, the chain of commodity, for example, the tunnels will not gotten, it will sticking without any effort. also, some, you know, what does it do? i call them the head of states not to negotiate. we must fight against them. if someone hits you, what should you do? you must fight sparks. the un says the war has forced hundreds of thousands of people from the homes. of south africa has been sending additional troops to join the companies army and fighting them. $23.00 of to 14 of its soldiers were reported

to have been killed with last month. the presence of the room, the forces on the ground is fanning fee is the fighting and congo could expand into a launch of regional conflict. the commitment to a political solution is one that is unwavering. first of all, for the d r c. but also for all come countries of the region as well as with the security council. so i think it is an important takeaway to say that everyone is committed to a political solution. the fighting must end and for that, the ones in groups must withdraw the democratic republic of congo and the united nation se, but one that supports the m $23.00 rep. those with arms and troops. the companies government also says key golly is using the group as a proxy army to capture the countries resources in the east with trillions of dollars to meet you met with in co, out to 0 for insight story. well

let's discuss all of this now with all puddle of guests today. and then i tried and gone. we have come by late, most of really a search at the center for a search on the congo in hopes of sweden angela november sel. strong. she's a senior research of the nordic african institute. i'm in washington, dc of the law. he how lucky is a piece of policy analyst? i've seen your advocate at refugees international. thank you. all of you for joining us today. angela, let me start with you. are you surprised by what we've seen this year? are you surprised by m 20 three's progress? i'm not surprised actually. i mean, i'm to m 23 has grown in stature and in scale and size in the last 5 years or so at the negotiations that were ongoing and led by angola in december of 2024 broke down. and that was partly because that was

a sort of a dispute between the government and the d. r. c. and, and other actors involved in the process about the inclusion of m. 23 in negotiations. and the result of the last months are also partly a reflection of changes in the geo political landscape. and i think for m 23 and for all other actors it's, it's, it's evident geopolitically that there is an opportunity now to actually in, in, to go on in terms of military goals and objectives and move quite rapidly towards crossing certain boundaries that have existed in the past when external actors would have been much more reluctant to allow or to permit encroachment on territorial sub sovereignty of the state. to come by, let me bring out one of the absolute central issues. if i may,

which is the involvement overland rule one that says it's not backing them 23, everyone from president pulled to gone me down is saying that what is the reality? because i don't think there's any one in the international community who now believes that i believe the president book, i mean he actually stated that he doesn't know if he's trips buying a deal to see or not. and for everyone. davey. this is already presented. we have drawn silver on this video for evidence, photographic evidence, and people are on the ground web, confirm this so it is no longer in addition, it is clear that tells us of run the troops from the run. the defense forces are in the new york. i'd say it was a total, it definitely drop to there. if i can combine it, do we have estimates of the numbers? how many random trips do we think cause a how many m 23 find to is? do we think they all backing just to be clear?

so you want to go over the best product has caught that since last year, at least $4000.00 run the defense for us. so years are on come with the site and the submitted the science evidence to the un security council. what we have seen so far that is not being strong actions up until yesterday, yesterday, the us secretary of treasury or the treasury office in the united states put sanction on the run. the a from a run. the general was currently the minister of state for regional paris corporation. just got back a bit. and these ma'am, east popped off the run. the defense for soldiers retire and active was being listed into un group of experts, reports as the commander. so the, as all, we've been the run the army to the m $23.00. so seeing that action is it passed to in the right direction, buys read, it's a list spoken with e, as we have saying, that's the step many is a 2. and that's p a c 12 we've come with these because in the 80 phase that

jessica baby has been active for the past 30 years, a 3 decades of this tells us that the united states government has all the information the needs are required to actually take action before the 30 years. ready if not the connection and i hope that this step in the right direction is a path to justice. so action in terms of some sanctions from the us. but the security council of the law, he, which was meeting on wednesday the un security council has not taken action. it certainly discussed this quite a few times in the meeting. the most recent meeting on wednesday, the un secretary general's invoice for the great lights long c. a said, the risk of a regional configuration is more real than ever. history is repeating itself. i think it might be useful for you to just explain the history of the 1990s for us

and what's at stake. i think what an stake is the regional studies stability will do it like so. each of these is known this last time that one visa, intervening in the territorial integrity of, of the democratic republic of congo. you know, towards the end of the cold war, when the former president of the democratic republic of congo formerly known as a, uh, what was that, what's thrown into a combination of the guidance and one that was in jim's coming. it'd be playing a significant role. and not after that, when one does run these on ugandans, but especially the one is thought that they have been stolen them on in the form of camilla seen you see turned against them or the very mini mom did one these soul with that and being marginalized and therefore they lo, instead of the military attack to withdraw him in 1998, i think creating all gods. but that brought in so many african militaries and what

was defined then us because wild rule way out by some estimate almost 5400000 people died. i think we have no result of some of those types notes that really led to that conflict. we had one the thing cuz i've been very minimal, i'm going to say does that increases and exist initial? it went from the government. that was impala ignite that was born in 1994. that is inside the eastern part of the d. c. on the question old little one, these or the very mini mom, the tutsis called by him lang a that ok bye they. we don't like me to some part of the d. c. okay. i think the one to jump to that, cuz i want angela to take out the story since then. and i think throughout history, the eastern part of the all see who's had very weak control from the capital control. so there's more than 1000 kilometers away. and it's been

a conference out and ever since. so, isn't it? that's right. it's been a complex zone ever since. i'm mean even just for the, for the ostensible period that we're discussing. i mean it's, it's been impossible for can shasta through successive governments and elections to have full territorial control over that region. none the less, i think that the population in eastern d r. c has been kind of like a football being kicked back and forth between externally supported armed groups like m 23 and the a. the a, there's allied defense forces, the adf. i'm backing by different regional actors, but that's also resulted in mass displacement over one and a half 1000000 people. i've been to play displaced regularly and scales. i mean, shoot a large scale of the human rights violence including sexual violence and the,

the, the combination of this and the fact that the kids also government hasn't been able to also implement strong governance institutions in eastern d. r c has further left the population sort of prey to the preservation of x terminal actors of external armed groups. and as well as of course the, the number i mean, the over a 100 militias and, and rebel groups and civil defense units. and, and it's a highly militarized area, and i would, i would argue that it is likely that the situation will, can, will worse and, but i don't really think it's going to become a world war 3 for africa. again, i don't think we'll see a complete repeat. i think we'll see something different than we saw in the 1990s

in late. ok, i think let, let me bring it in. come by the let's, if we look at m 23, they have been around for some time and they did take government once before in 2012, only for a short period. and then there was a special enforcement wing of the you enforcement of scope called the false interbred intervention brigade deployed within defensive mandate. um they were pushed down and pushed back into rolanda. it's so different this time, isn't it? because i'm in my list to tell me if i've left anyone out, the forces that were in the east and the democratic republic of congo. you had new scope. the un peacekeeping force on paper 11000 strong, although they weren't in the south keyvi, which is where i'm 23. have now gone. they've got the congolese forces. you have a motion res, reportedly from romania and from that'd been hired by the congolese. you had another, a peacekeeping force from the south african development community. that's the

regional grouping. that was called semi d. c. that was malawi, and then particularly south african troop $714.00 south africans died. and you had troops from the neighboring country, britain to more than 10000 soldiers that from burgundy and m. 23 has plowed ahead. have they not come by and an succeeded, despite all of those different forces only. and that the purpose of dram $23.00 is to run the defense forces. i mean, when, when you read the human report is quite clear about what is happening. uh, the yeah. fight. seeing a super military best able to uh, jam gps system. what does that mean? the means that the communities army cannot fly the plans in the area where the rabbits are. who has this advantage? the run the military. we have a short system, right? the shot, the defense system used by the m 23. you have that vision, god, god, god, according to our african intelligence newspaper,

they've actually mess. and that just the key over the city of golden up, i'll go my was the was done. we've support a saw drones even on the terrorist. ready un secretary general new interview we found spring. congress stated that the. ready m $23.00, that's much more sophisticated within read that to give it to you in forces. so is the context to look at the what is actually happening there? now as you're talking about the different armies involved and they've come with different mandates, the false intervention brigades about came 2012 was actually in action of subject. where the you, when did not want this force to be outside of the you went through his diction. that's the way i actually added. so what were you seeing over the years is best said nations as to bolted it back to piece from the military perspective, to bring about that. but i'm also clear, the path to peace is not going to come to me. the 30 means right. it's going to come to diplomacy in 2012 of was stopped. the m 23 was aggressive diplomacy. now,

what are we talking about? western nations and international institutions such as the world bank, the african development bank. all we've allocated to run to the scene for action caused to be promoted pressure internationally for reigning di miranda right now. that type of action has both reached. we strongly believe because of run those economy because of one does media that we support from the western nations, but the central for them to take similar actions to any and around that. to be able to go back to the negotiating table to discuss about the business. stability by military solution will not. and the conflict is the problem. okay, let me let, let me bring that. let me bring an engineer on that point. i mean, is there anything militarily that can stop and 23 i, one of the things i noticed when they took, because who they also took, couple moves, which is apparently big airport,

which cuts off all of the supplies to the comedies on me. that's right. i mean i, i would just have to agree with the others that i think that it is. it is a question of really being able to militarily engage and this arm, not just necessarily this arm, but neutralize rwanda. persuade and create incentives for the rwandan government to in turn contain and controlled m 23. and i think that at the diplomatically there, there are a lot of weaknesses in such an effort. and you know burundi has withdrawn some of its forces. i don't know if the reports from this week are true or not. they've withdrawn, i believe, a $10000.00 of those of those. those forces you've gone down, the other hand is deploying a bit more. i think there's still quite a lot of uncertainty and back and forth. and the region, i believe,

would like to have a sort of a status quote settlement. but i think that the, the real pressure has to come from even further outside of the continental will have to come from us further strengthening. it's a negative message against the golly to contain kigali and to persuade kigali to control am 23. and really that, that, that is really the lever that needs to be pressed in order for it, for all of these actors to go back. i mean, there was some consensus between the east african community and the southern african development community around the diplomatic process to go proceeding. i think that that, that consensus could hold. but i do believe that there are major concessions that could in shots that will have to make an ultimately it will, there will have to be some sort of a,

a negotiation that really takes into account the interest silver wanda, the interest of m, 23, the the territorial integrity of the congo, these people and of the government in, in contrast. but that, that is, will be diplomatic and a political process, but without strong strong leverage against wanda, we will not get that de la. he um, in terms of the m 23 where they are moving. they seem to be moving south rivera and that is right on the border with the run the on the shore of lake tongue and mika, less than 30 kilometers away from bush and bordeaux, which is the main city, and used to be the capital. i'm going with involving more or more countries will come on so you can do in a minute more and more countries. i mean, they already have trips that are on the but more and more countries and getting directly involved refugees of streaming into birthday. yes it is, i think um,

even why we are discussing the large strategic issues at play. well, we shouldn't lose sight of these. the people who are paying the ultimate price, they can release the children and the women in the see. last year i was in goma, i'm it women, you know like not a single one of them has no experience. and you know, sexual agenda based biden's. and some of them told me the people who committed these people as young as my children. so i think we shouldn't lose sight of that, but i think to your question around, but only is the fact that we're on the and we're on the other one that doesn't enjoy your relationship because the ease of little group that is based inside but wound it inside the d as see that the moonbeams think of being supported or unless they are being supported by one that to this debbie lies

a little indeed. so therefore, that no just the interest of the see the other moving interests of other countries that are using the d. c as a base from where they destabilize no, just the d. c, but countries in the region. but fundamentally though, we have to get back to the question of what, what he's in the interest of the see, everybody has their own interest. d r. c also has its own interest on, i think, fundamentally the citizens of the c o will continue to in do, agreed. yes, human rights violation, women and children being ripped on, seems simply as a tool rule by various actors, including allied militias. got what we'd they got to do with the d. c. government that has to stop. it doesn't matter how in secured wanda fields, but i think a lot that the people did the see especially these, these are much more than it is getting right now. come out a um,

earlier angela mentioned briefly you guns and forces because we got preliminary now and then you kind of, they've gone to the capital of a tory province bonia. do we think cars in the past a happy allied with. ready wanda, but they've also recently been in support of the d. c. do we know exactly what you've done to is doing that? i'm sorry to keep or referencing the proof of experts because that being very clear and showing the evidence right now the m 23 had been trimming. incompatible according to do you in a group of experts and the need that they've been entering the the, or see from that you've done the border, the test. so you're saying you are suggesting that you've gotten the is on the side over one, the end, the end 23, just to put it someplace that is that your understanding? yes, but it's not me. it's the human group of expert presenting that to us or the security council race. nothing opinion form for myself is the facts on the ground, right,

so we do know that a, you pdf commander, and that's the you've done that in people's different supports. the military had been instructors in the camps where the emperor increased training. we also know that m 23 crosses the border gun. that's a d or c. we've being stuff about you gun done. the government needed tear york on the border patrol of whatever the may have and a recommendation from the proof of expert. he's got the gun, the government needs to take action around the evidence that's been presented to them, which they have not. so i will not be surprised to see you know, the front uh actually create on the top. but i think it's important to point out with the less and less than professionally by the interests of the communities. the interest of the commodities lies into purchasing a home buyers, independence based speech, where a phase that goes minerals, colors, lens come the resources to belong to the commodities people. you should be exposed to the benefits of the people. what we're seeing is not that right. as we are

talking and by the telling the interest of uh for an insurance, it runs uh what they need on the uh, in the country mean our resources need it for the full industrial relations continue to come up with a combo congress go time. he's being exposed to come was lead. jim is also being exported gold. and so all right, so we must know as to even talking about the complexity of the conflict that in the real root cause is control of columbus mineral wealth. and he has a pure of homeless history, you multiple form. so to address that is for net shows, what consuming, these are, these minerals to all corporations accountable. that's why i've seen the sanctions the got it run terms come back a bit where he pointed up very clearly. right? as a london defense minister is facilitating the export of minerals from new york to the outside world. not, not speculation. so this is what we have functioning in,

putting the names of the companies, right. the keystone, the holding register in paris believe. and also in the u. k. that is issued be presented as an mysterious conflict. what we do not know the actors. we do not know the companies africans, i want them the killing of charter. okay. and to the, i was interested to read that some embassies and contrast. so the west of embassy is including the us and the u. k. have evacuated most of the stuff because that worried about the situation. i mean, do you think there was any possibility m. 23 may want to push all the way to the capital and just a, a quick point of geography. that's over 1500 kilometers away. but of course there is the president of 1997 as yes, that's true, but that wasn't, it was a different time. i mean the government and, and the contract, the d r. c. government was significantly weak or i think i'm had less experience

with a waging a kind of a dance with rwanda, with k golly. at that time. and in this, in this regard, i think that and that i'm, i'm very skeptical that m 23 will go all the way to can shasta, i don't think it needs to go all the way to control. so i mean, i think it needs to threaten to, i think that the threat of its military success and its control of eastern the r c and its success so far i'm, it support from regional players really will create a kind of another lever, a kind of lever and negotiation shading position with kinshasa. i do believe that the real um ambition here is to have control of congos where minerals particularly from that part of the region. i know that m $23.00 just alone and

taxes, i think paid to it for extraction of some critical minerals makes almost $10000000.00 a month or more just from that, not from the actual cost of, of, of actual profits. so it's a kind of in slave meant of the people of the congo, a to production of an extraction of these minerals and, and, and to the global sort of financial system that supports it, the extraction. but i don't believe that m 23 can actually go all the way to control. so we'll see though, i mean, if the us doesn't really engage, if there's not enough international pressure, i think between now and the next few months, then perhaps i would change my mind. but simply by putting more pressure, like they did, i think in 2012 this a similar situation occurred and there was

a significant pressure from the us then. and that pulled back. i'm 23. i was occupation of go my then. so i don't, i'm a bit more skeptical. thank you very much. angela. thank you tool. i guess today come validate most of hooley angela of whom, but so strong and of the law here. how lucky. thank so much for watching. remember, you can always see this program again and all our recent editions. by visiting the inside story page out, is there a dot com or on facebook if you'd like to post your comments. facebook dot com forward slash a inside story, or if you prefer to use ex, look for at a inside story for me james phase and the production team. please say safe and well buy from the feeling. the facts, as the cool ones are whether continue as people in gaza have no choice but to find

what middle shoulder, the account, understanding the reality we are a line of frequent art is a live reporting from b. thanks everybody we've spoken to wants peace with many of the don't fix it any cost. i'll just say with teams across the world. when you closer to the hosp to the store the the, there's no limit to how a dream continue to study in your own event. you know, counter everything's on counting the cost. as donald trump's term policies begin to

take shape. we took a look at the potential impact on american industry. consumers of the economy will increase inflation level of playing field portions of the rules of the global trading system. counting the cost on which is 0. the mass is releasing 6 is rarely captives and exchange for $620.00 policy unions. and the largest swamp for the goal is to cease by the on the clock. this is out, is there a life window holes are coming out? the yes, what it is, it becomes too seldom does it gather in tennessee to watch the loved ones being free. the somebody

government soldiers baffled. i saw fights as in the northeast and couldn't lend rage and killing dozens and try.