and i mean, we're definitely not prepared to 10, and i think that's very clear. an organism we know about, or a deadly new book called disease x. either way, there's cause for concern the slots in the curve investigate on l g 0. the although i'm adrian said again, and this is counting the cost on i'll just 0 your way to look at the world of business of economics this week. russia has weathered crippling western sanctions. the us says that there are extraordinary economic opportunities in the nation, but all of that on will american companies get back into business in russia. the

you and india want to boost economic ties. the aim to finalize a free trade deal by the end of this year. so all the 2 sides growing closer and will they be able to reach an agreement? it's seen as an historic shift in germany stance on pondering limits. the nation is likely new governments agreed to relax depth was to boost defense spending. so what's behind the plan? and will it be approved with a lack of jobs instead of go thousands of people are competing for a limited number of work visas in spain. while so many senegalese people unemployed and come to countries president to fix the problem up to 3 years of western sanctions. russia could once again be open for american businesses, but that's only if a deal can be done to end the will in ukraine. secretary of state, marco rubio said that the 2 nations could then push you potentially historic

economic partnerships. i've been credible opportunities. rubio comment came off the water shut talks with russian officials in rehab last month. and last week, president donald trump said he wants to see major economic deals with moscow. and his in advance talks to cobble something together. russia says that it's open for economic cooperation with the us, including on energy and the mining of rad, of mineral of spot. it's war driven economies of a heated interest rates. a hype of the business environment is unpredictable. dimitri method and co reports the war in ukraine has been costly for russia. the economy has been invented by sanctions, a globally isolated banking sector, a. we can ruble and the withdrawal of the west and companies. but all of this may change now that in washington there was a new sheriff in town. donald trump began a rapid rep, are small with moscow soon after taking office with the push to end the war and

ukraine and a failed minerals deal with key if it's going to be very hard thing to do. business like this, trump is now increasingly sending positive signals to moscow. i'd like to buy minerals on russian land too. if we can, the river is very good where it's. busy so they both do, i would say that and toil and gas look, it's a great thing if we sell is great for russian to. the kremlin has said that any normalization of relations with the west will require the lifting of sanctions. and washington says, this means you are as well, in order to bring an end to any conflict. there has to be concessions made by all sides. the european union is going to have to be at the table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed. thousands of west and companies pulled out of russia when it didn't. they did ukraine in 2022. that business as well, in many cases acquired by local players mcdonalds for example, replaced by to cause no you thought you got, which was mostly just the marketing make of if west and businesses choose to come

back, they will be competing with these analogs. they will also find the economy in a non stable state of the country's g. d. p grew 4 percent last year. this was driven mainly by the military industrial complex with the foot of the federal budget spent on national security ending the war could impact the economy negatively. if these expenses are caught, inflation is running officially at 9 percent, but some goods have more than doubled in price over the last 3 years. the central banks, key rates of 21 percent, is making it's very expensive to borrow. and for example, launch a new business. the kremlin says the prospect of lifting sanctions and seeing west and businesses coming back is distant explained on. there is a long way to go, because the entire sets of bilateral relations has been great. the damaged spots is the political will of the to lead is president putin and president trump is kept

then will clear this distance quickly enough for any of this to happen. the 1st step would be putting an end to the war in ukraine. and washington has threatened to moscow with more sanctions, if a deal is not reached to meet them at vanco ouch as they are for counting the cost . richard connelly is a senior analyst for russia and the c. i. s at oxford analytical. he's an associate fellow at the royal united services and since you have any joins us now from geneva, richard, good savvy with us on counting the costs in what sort of state is russia's economy right now? it's not in a bad state. uh, good morning. i do, and i mean certainly don't password for the last 3 years and many people thought that it would when western sanctions were imposed. following the invasion, if you creating 2022 it grew by 4 point one percent last year and the year before. it's currently slowing down because it's so difficult to maintain that brisk race

of growth. it faces a few problems in the fullness rising inflation. in a tight labor market, but generally speaking it's in pretty good shape. so here's the big question. do you see american businesses returning to russia any time soon? what would it take for that to happen? what they want to reach on? and that's a very good, that's why i think the most important point, anybody would take fast, but of course be some form of political agreement, a quote between united states and russia. and that will be a necessary condition to thanks to move forward. it will also require some form of significant sanctions, where they say need to change and remove the barriers that currently exist for us funds doing business in russia. but then even if those 2 conditions are in place, it would then requires you suggest in your question and that us funds see the see the commercial opportunity and entering russia. now there's

a lot of ways in which they could make money. but a lot of funding funds has been done in russia in the past, but as a result of the war, but also before. so it's not immediately obvious that they'll be a rush of us investors entering bullshit even extensions lifted. so what can you suspect to a donald trump's motivations for wanting to get a come nomic relations at least on to a more normal 1st thing with russia, is it, is it just about read us minerals? so i don't think so send me. i suspect that this is the economics feeds into the broad a political picture. i think there's a desire to have a working relationship with russia and that trump being a former business. nancy's the commercial side has been an impulse of pos with us. and i suspect that there aren't too many people with united, the administration or the us business community was really saying, this is an important part of any future relationship to us. investment in,

in russia was much smaller before the woman that say, your opinion investment in russia. and so i, i saw, i think that this would be an importance, but by no means the most significant part of any future store in us, russian relations. to what extent is the russian oil and gas play into all of that is the us interested in tapping into to that energy? i mean, it, it's got its, its own supplies. and if, if it did, would your follow should i mean your up has been particularly badly hot by the lack of access to cheaper russian energy to correct. i think it's worth thinking about the us and russia and us potential for investing in oil and gas. it's important to note that in, in, in gas, especially liquefied natural gas o l n g, russia, and america arrivals. so it's honda and likely that us funds are going to invest in russia when they are currently trying to take russian market share and

global n g markets. and the same, i think is true of oil costs will be some potential for us funds to invest in, in some russian oil fields. but a game that has proven to be and also, and often costly and often program mastic, a experience for american friends in the past. so i think it will be some reluctance to dive straight in video or pins. and as you suggest, if they want to stop buying rushing gas again, that could help your pain industry tremendously. because cheap, rushing dyson, russian gas is the cheapest type of guns. we're just looking at the price available to you or can, can see. and this, and that would be a real boon for you, or pay an industry or a long way from from that i was going to ask you actually yeah you, you suspect, but, but this is all going to be quite a long way in, in the future. yeah, absolutely, i think even if we look at the us, even if donald trump inside of a, a person meet personally and come to some form of agreement, the lifting of

a lot of the sanctions of the united states currently has in place will require congressional approval. and that makes it very difficult to this sanctions the united states has imposed sanctions on most of the countries in recent decades. and it has a very poor track record in listing them. and that's because it also requires congressional approval as well as a presidential decision. so i do think that despite some of the headlines, the, the, the chances of sanctions relief taking place on any meaningful scale still proceed . no, i'm not just the united states. i think the europeans are farther behind the west when it comes to the politics of a reaching out sick to russia. and so even with the euro, i think we're looking at, you know, even longer period before any type of sanctions or the for, for by them as well. richard, it's been really good to talk to you on kind of the, the cost manufacturing data being with us. thank you. ukraine says that it will try

to ramp up domestic weapons production of to donald trump suspended oil us ministry 8 to the nation. that us officials says that washington is reviewing with a billions of dollars given to keith is contributing to a solution to end the war with russia. the move comes off to advance contentious meeting between trump for president, for a lot of me is landscape last week. it's being seen as an attempt to increase pressure, also landscape to make concessions and the conflict a president. trump has made it clear, but he wants to lower borrowing costs for americans. but instead of putting pressure on the federal reserve to cut interest rates, trump, and treasury secretary scott best and have turned their attention to lowering the yield on 10 year us government bones. now the 10 year t bill yield is a lending benchmark that influence is borrowing cost, so everything from mortgages to corporate bonds, lower yales allow rates across the economy to full and could help bring down

borrowing costs for consumers, yields or annual returns full. when prices rise, meaning the trump administration will need to reduce government borrowing, which will eventually decrease the supply of bones, will make us depth more appealing to investors. besson said that they tend to yield could naturally full by increasing the supply of oil and gas, bringing down energy prices. the yield on the 20th, the bill did decline in february, but perhaps not. so the reason is the president wants invest as a concerned, trump tower of threats, and layoffs of government workers could slow americas growth, the piling into bones as a safe haven alternative to the on the tiles. stock market. a fiscal see change designed to restore and re um, europe's largest economy. economists say germany is likely incoming government has announced plans to boost defense spending by relaxing the country strict borrowing rules. they've also said that they've sick to set up

a $533000000000.00 funds to finance spending on infrastructure over the next 10 years. now provision would exempt defense spending above one percent of g d p from the depth break, the caps, government borrowing dropbox, a historic shift in the countries. conservative approach to borrowing the debt break is enshrined to the constitution of the 2 bills which the to a 2 thirds majority deposit will be presented in parliament next week. joining us not from berlin is i'll just here as dominant came down. why is this happening now? what does it mean? this is happening now because the man who is very likely to be the next john to the freezers match the man whose pots each thing 1st in the recent general election, says that germany now needs to be a grown up germany now needs to assert its role in europe, he's looked at what's the trump administration that has been doing these of the ukraine europe. nate, so assess and now is the time for germany to re um and to take it sort of of what

does that actually mean? this reform of the debt break, what he's effectively talking about that is anything over one percent of g d p, well factually, that would be anything over $44000000000.00 euros or adult sams, $47.00 and a half $1000000000.00. any spending above that limits would not be constrained by the debt break. so in other words, if you wants to put a loss of money, loss of finance into defense, that would be the way to do it. the other reason it's happening now? well, that's much more political because the holloman's that was elected on the 23rd february needs to stop sitting by the 25th of march. when it does that will not be the 2. so it's majority for mr. mounts and his partners to get this through. it's got to get a 2 thirds majority. that's why the vote is taking place next week. but it's also going to have to get a 2 thirds majority in the other house of parliament and the numbers that are very

tight indeed in the end is the amounts needs his political opponents in the green party to vote for this. if it happens, then he will get what he wants and he will be able to spend that money on defense. but this so much that currently is still to be decided. i was just arizona came reporting from berlin, done manufacturing date. and there are more than 6000 european companies doing business in india. the issue is now the nation's largest trading papa ahead of the us in china football games. the boost economic ties with the asian nation even filled up in a recent visit by european commission president us live on the line to new delhi. the 2 sides agree to finalize a free trade deal, which is stored for years by the end of 2025. but will the, you would indeed be able to overcome the differences and reach an agreement to discuss that with joints now from bethesda, maryland by outright should boss who was

a distinguished visiting scholar of the institute for international economic policy at george washington university. good to have you with us. so what are the chances of the you and india being able to finalize this deal by the end of the quote. it's very possible, as you said, there's a very strong push on both sides. especially since both are being threatened by very high tide of strongly united states. the precursor to this is a very good. yes. the trade div that's with the 4 countries. no way switzerland, iceland and lichtenstein, which was signed last year. and which promises to increase by natural investment, but well over a $100000000000.00 between those countries in india. so if that starts to work, that will have a positive effect on, on the broader ears, india trade. deed of course, the u. india has

a trade in technology council that has been working on this for some time and that they will really have their work cut out to make this happen. why? why the end of the world? why so has it, has this deal taken so long as we said it had been stalled for years? yeah, so there's a lot of factors. you know, the deadline is always into detail. and as you say, and of course trade has picked up. but despite that, india has very high status on cars, online and on both agricultural products. it doesn't have to in the minds of the you, investors in sufficient investment protection agreements. and then it's public procurement contracts are not that open. so that's the complained on the east side, but on the indian side also the u has been the sale of a 700 farm up products which are tested in india. now these are sold as

genetics, even in the united states, but you doesn't find that to be sufficient in there is a major exporter of pharmaceuticals, especially genetics. then there are data safety issues that you know doesn't consider india to be as safe as they would like it to be. so which means that a lot of back office work that is done in india by many companies around the world so. so that's, that's amber, can i ask you? so yeah. who, who needs more, who right now, the e, u. l l, india, where india certainly needs the e u. because in that, you know, in the sales do that you are about to, if you add up goods and services that are about a $100000000000.00, but you imports. i'm not counting in try, you trade,

i'm counting extra. you trade in, you and boards, 2.8 trillion, 2.8 trillion worth of goods and services. so and they're certainly good expand its exports usually into the new market on the east side. of course, the fact that now they're getting restricted in the united states, they are looking for opportunities. and the fact is that endeavor soon be the 3rd largest economy in the world and growing at a very rapid rate. so there's a huge upside potential both for that and i would say, and for the i wanted to ask you, so what, what has changed a mood music wise to, to, to, to bring these 2 sides together is, is it the fact that donald trump is, is in the white house, sundays, offending the world economic order and introducing towers. is that what's forcing india and the you to finally get this deal over the line?

yeah, i think it would in there has always been very keen on this deal because you know, for us, for it. and it's a huge market that we haven't been able to to penetrate. we have penetrated to some extent, now as and it's growing, but not as much as it would like to. but for certainly for the you, it's looking for friends now that it's becoming quite clear that the us is quite hostile to the we so. so i think that's the embed test as there was a very large delegation, as you said by led by or so the reading to like me to uh, to india recently. and clearly the optics of back of a positive. but you know, it's not going to be an easy agreement to make. so, you know, there would be a lot of discussion that will have to take place. but, you know, once the political leadership on both sides makes a push, i think it's possible,

but it's not going to be an easy one. it's really good to talk to you so on causing the cost manufacturing date for being with us. thank you. bye bye. uh, after his election victory last year, president press 0, dialed by fi promised, sweeping reforms to help improve living conditions in sent a goal. but today, many southern golly is young people still struggle to find work. they're leaving the country in droves looking for opportunities elsewhere. more than 300000 unemployed people have applied for seasonal visas to work on spanish phones ahead of a harvest. but with only 350 spots available, competition is fis. i'll just here as nicholas hack reports. now the village of traffic in incentive go home and this is only there was a well in the village of tagging. then abdul aziz in guy would not be trying to go to spain. he sees in his fields and taps possibilities. songs about the water he

says, is like a magic turning sand into crops. this is the zip of purple sheet. the cell i can grow solid carrots beans and 9 units. i could add enough to feed my family and most have to go to europe and the good news i'm hoping to fund a well enjoy applied for the seasonal visa scheme to work on farms in spain. to the leaders of the 2 countries revived a 2 decade long seasonal work visa scheme. in 2024 to curb the legal migration and to help spain deal with its manpower shortage for some of the people at a gathering in portugal. last october, spain's prime minister warrant that europe faces a looming labor crisis and is set to lose 30000000 working age people over the next 20 years. especially for young europe is suffering from a demographic winter. can toggle it in different ways. one with technology increasing productivity to and to which both rate policies. but let's face it

tomorrow. we're not going to have the birth rate that's being ad, for example, in the 19 eighties and 3 migration, almost 50 percent of eco nomic growth in spain. or the last 20 years has come from the contribution of immigration economic growth. field record 47000 mostly africans arrived illegally in spain. last year. many end up working in the fields. cheap, illegal labor is paid. a fraction of the wage is given to locals. just one short season working the farms in spain would bring enough funds to turn this bearing land into life. bring water here, grow crops, and stop the flow of migration so that people can have opportunities right here on their land. so refined took part in the scheme. unlike many he returned home with the savings. he bought enough livestock to secure a modest living,

but he carries with him the painful memories of back breaking work. picking pears in apricots, fruits. he can't afford to buy it or grow significantly low. it's hard work. if you sleep little, you will cannot wake you up a for you. i'm walking 50 kilometers in today for a small meal and the manager shouting that you. it doesn't feel right. as it is competing with the young, skilled unemployed graduates clutching their diploma is hoping to find work they cannot find at home 300000 applicants vying for just 350 spots. oh, i see, and yeah, i called a friend who like him applied for the scheme. weeks have passed with no use. the silence feels familiar. he fears he has been duped and that his application has not been processed with it comes the realization of having lost the found the savings and the possibilities of a new life. nicholas hawk elder 0 for counting. the cost that i can send to go.

since i say b is a technical intelligence analyst of control risk. so global risk consultancy found that you joins us now from call incentive go, good heavy with us, just r y is set a goal of unemployment rate running so high. thank you. good morning everyone. thank you for inviting each so understanding what was employee employment rate is pretty high right now because the economy, economic and fiscal situation is pretty stressed at the moment and it's likely to remain that way for the next few years. so for example, the course of auditors in the data separate publish report, just teaching that to the general data to government, it's actually shit, almost 100 percent of the g d. p, meaning that's enabled for the next few years is going to have less room for diet and higher costs. so this actually um,

impacts job of markets and actually almost impact them mostly in fox women to use um and getting a workers getting to areas. i'm for those of us who aren't so familiar with center goal and it's economy, what are the main drivers of economic activity and some of the go and so you can only get signatures main leech line driven by the primary and secondary sector. so every culture livestock, this is sherry or sector is what is really permanent incentive go. um. so actually for the originals and in $23.00 on the economy reached a group of 4.3 percent. and this actually was led by the primary and the secondary. um the sectors mainly. so does the president have a viable plan for fixing the economy this this debt problem that you talked about increasing employment?

yeah, so actually the government has a plan agreement plan that includes talk between 3 and it's unemployment and uh, um the regular migration. so for example, the minister of neighbor, in february, declare that the government launched a grand crucial for employment that will tackle unemployment rates and actually boost our the private sector. at the same time, the mutual news declared in november last year that the government is carinthia implemented currently developing a plan of a nation. we use plan um to travel unemployment uh specifically um or guardians use the signing well however the government um was able to secure a um, a tournaments re majority in november 2024. meaning that these programs are still not in place. we will take time for them to implement them and to actually see if

they are working on the employment reach, incentive goal. since that has been great talking to you on counting the cost manufacturing data being with us. thank you. thank you for having me. you have a great day, i and that's all show for this break. if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen, i'm at a fitting an on x twice. remember to use the hash tag h a c t c, or you can drop us a line counting the cost of a 0 dot net is our email address. as always, that's probably the most viewed online at alpha 0 dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page and then you'll find individual reports links at a time, additions for you to catch up on. that's it for this edition of counting the cost on every, instead of going from the team. here though, how, thanks for being with us, the news on al jazeera is next too much on al jazeera from trade was to size make shift to us policy on garza and ukraine. president donald trump is shaking up global politics,

rigorous debates on slim same questions upfront cuts through the headlines to challenge conventional wisdom on the 14th anniversary of the city and revolution, the phone of the outside regime associated in a new era as syrians rebuild their nation in a wheel and is ready to make it discovers of palestinian film archive cease from the piano in 1982. that raises important questions about palestinian identity while the battle rages on the front line. the diplomatic pursuit for peace is in crisis. however critical moments ahead, in fact, the ukraine war and the world order much on outages, era have the right the boy cost. anyone i want to and the state has no business getting involved in that. and 3 pod series explodes, the implications of us and people who called lowest the freedom of speech and 1st amendment by how many words, what i have to change in this legislation, thing use it to flush receipts of anyone who supports black was or is involved in protesting for environmental, and it's like 10 word pod, 3, the template on our 20,

the revealing eco friendly solutions to come back to our planet. on tuesday, around the syrian government forces and a f, as in boy, let's continue to find for controls in the countries northwest. the hello on elizabeth autumn, and this is alison 0 live from doha is. so coming up, i am aust delegation as an agent for 2 weeks on this. these 5 was as well as palestinians. i'm dogs have run out of 2 fuel and the other a central supplies and another loss of russian air strikes on ukraine. 11 people

are killed and attacks on the east and on yet regions. and south korea's president has freed from j and the officer prosecute has decided not to p.