the but it's great is rivals, is just a few blocks away. a mutual dislike between funds from across device sustained over generations. most lucky junior support his opponents of news clip colors in an epic cute, a rich business put. the funds will make football. when i was just the euro, we was negotiate and the pressure the word. so the runs talk leader often told me from offer to talk about his nuclear program. the us president clinton would be the alternative. so it was another nuclear deal with the ron possible and if so, what? so this is inside stored the

hello. it cannot and change pays us president donald trump wants to deal with the wrong over its nuclear program is reached out for tools. well, also tightening sanctions only runs economy for now to around says it wasn't negotiate under pressure. it was trump who pulled us out. so if the previous nuclear deal saying it didn't go far enough, is that now scope for diplomatic solution that's acceptable to both sides and what will it take to get them to the negotiating table? we'll go to our panel in just a few moments, but 1st as report from fidgeting on your own leaders make their position clear. they view overtures by the trump administration, not as an invitation to talk about nuclear program, but as a demand for concessions that he has to let to or do some bullying governments and system negotiations. van negotiation is not aimed at resolving issues. they negotiate to dictate the will, the us and other world power, say they want to prevent or all i'm from developing

a nuclear weapon present. donald trump says he wrote a letter to tear on seeking talks, but it also said that other options are on the table. hopefully we can have a, a peace deal. you know, that i'm not speaking at a strength or weakness. i'm just saying i'd rather see a peace deal than the other, but the other will solve the problem. the last time trump came into office in 2016, a deal was in place. iran had agreed to curb its nuclear activities in exchange for relief from sanctions. as it was, the old trump who pulled america out of the agreement, demanding further concessions on around the military capabilities and the backing of arms groups. the trump back in office again, they're all expects more of the same. as i said, the problem is not just the nuclear issue, they raise huge amounts that will definitely not be missed by a rod, and they will be demands about defense capabilities and international capabilities . they will urge around not to do certain things not to meet. so there's some people not to go to assert some place not to produce some items. you'll massaro

rain should not be move in a certain distance. is it possible for anyone to accept these? iran has a way to night. it intends to develop nuclear weapons saying it's program is for civilian use. but since the collapse of the deal to around this been increasing it's enrichment of uranium. this could allow it to build a weapon more quickly if it decided to do so. we need to engage as a soon as possible because because time is passing, you have seen my reports of the on the dvd. see here on the, the amount of and reach your, you much, 60 percent is growing very, very fast. all of the activities are, are being carried out. your arms economy has been badly affected by sanctions for years. and the us is determined to tighten them even further. without diplomacy to roam is likely to continue enriching uranium, which could but the 2 powers on a collision course. america wants tools, but for now, iran is budging,

until believes and acceptable deal, maybe on the table. then smaller than l to 0 for inside story. the while that's bringing to a guess today to discuss all of this in detail from alexandria in virginia. hi, no clink form, a us deputy assistant secretary of defense from care on how many to raise a gloves. are there direct sells a house of diplomacy, a think tank, and from washington d. c. i levi is director of the around project of the international crisis group. thank you. all of you for joining us on the advise. let me start with you. you'll one of a small group of journalists and analysts who follow every twisting to an cuz i read a lot of the stuff you write. i'd like your assessment a new diplomatic go. but you, there's lots, we don't know. we don't know what's in that. in that trump laptop box is the reason

for optimism right now. this is good to see james. it's hard to imagine that there would be an opening as a result of the letter. because i think some of the structural problems that we have had in the us around engagement. and we saw in the following trumpet ministrations. first i'm in office, i think still exist. number one is this distinction that you have between trump and to talk with ministration. i think the president from is absolutely interested in a mutually beneficial deal with the ryan regime, but it's almost no one around 10 minutes administration at the white house of the state department shares the objective and some c containments of your on some of the topics relation of your, on a and, and that's why you see a difference between the presidents rhetoric and what is put on the paper in terms of for instance, the memo and that he signed 2 weeks into the office which reimpose maximum pressure

of sanctions, which is the policy you pursue this 1st term and didn't result in a deal only resulted in a much longer oppressive iran at home, much more aggressive around in the region and brought ross into a program to the verge of nuclear weapons. and then the 2nd structural problem is this. uh, the, the administration's policy is still pressure 1st as a way of getting around to the negotiating table. and the wrong is never negotiated with a gun to their head and asked why. 6 weeks ends of this administration. we are already at an impasse and it doesn't matter who carries the message to turn on, whether it's a letter or as an intermediary. the problem is that the rise reluctant to engage under pressure and the pump as ministration does not really pursue a if somebody gives us that is not the pressure sensor to how many drugs the

interior. um, let me get the perspective from that. let me just read you that quote from the supreme leader, some bully governments in system negotiations. then negotiations, not aimed at solving problems, they aimed at domination. is that a no to trump? or is the door still open? yeah, of course it is a no to trump as a we are seeing the situation right now. let's just begin with what you said about the way the message has been delaware. that the letter, if the, when uh, president trump, uh, sends the letter and immediately says it to the uh, media. it shows uh, 2 things. either he doesn't know that what the products party to kind different logic procedure is to send a letter to the country. lucky wrong, where they don't have any embassy which makes it and actually quite funny. and it means that you cannot discuss with that person different, magically. and there's no or ways or for different mercy,

or he knows. and he wants to have a media pressure on your own and put the pressure in your right hand side so that they would come to the table that say that again is some sort of bullying as the leader has mentioned. the point is that what iranians are seeing from this side is that the, the policy is the same to have the sticks and the carrots at the same time. and we don't have any carrots, extra, actually. right now to put the pressure on the ring. yeah, it's just the right time the ring is designed and then exit your, the memorandum, which is a depicting what the upon this it would be to have the maximum pressure to, again, to talk about even convention on both ends of the one and talking about the original and for the see off the one. so all the things that we are hearing from the washington is something that says to hearing and said, you cannot set fort worth for a negotiations because there is going to be no income for you. there is going to be

no outcomes for you to, to be, or any fluid for you. so yes, it is a no because disability there is very pragmatic and is foreign policy. it was something that is real and we haven't seen anything so far. a hi no, i mean you heard that the view from tyrone is it sticks? note carrots, and it's worth saying the president trump has already said he's re imposing me opposing his maximum pressure campaign. on the 6th of march, his treasury secretary said that he was going to collapse. ron's already bought clean economy of the us apparently considering a plan which you would also use highlights to stop and inspect iran oil tank. cuz a sanctions waiver that allowed iraq to pay iran electricity apparently looks like it's not going to be renewed. and on the 4th of march. so that with joint exercises from the us and the is riley of forces. i mean,

it seems that these are not coincidences. all that kind of as well. i think there is absolutely a strategy in the new trump administration with regards to uh, looking for an approach to the islamic republic over on the president's letter is one aspect of that i would offer that it does in fact open the door to potential negotiations as always the doubles of the details, whether it's from a tron perspective or from a washington perspective. but i would say from an optimistic point of view of the president as taking the 1st step towards establishing some sort of at least at this point in direct dialogue. yes, and there are carrots and there are sticks, perhaps more sticks right now than carrots. anyone who's been involved in any type

of international negotiate agents, particularly in the national security and defense. serena, the tween adversaries knows that there is going to be a distance sensitive part of the negotiation. and you know, we see that now with the maximum pressure campaign of being reinvigorated and reestablish views of the are wrong. but let's remember that uh, president trump, in many respects, as an unconventional leader, he reached out to the leader of north korea directly. for talks that resulted in 3 in person meetings. he is now reached out to the spring leader of iran. while i don't anticipate any, any movement in any types of direct or in person negotiations in the immediate term, i think the one thing that you can expect and perhaps might even appreciate some present. trump is his willingness to try to tackle international issues.

tensions in a way that might be viewed as new and again, unconventional. i live with a carrier that we've only got present drums woods in an interview with fox business . and then a free waiting conversation on friday with the report is in the oval office. it is interesting that in those comments that we have, we haven't seen the last so there was no mention of and this thing to do with the wrong. apart from the nuclear aspect, no mention of it runs missiles and drones. no mention of it runs regional alliances . does that suggest to the trump might be seeking a narrow new, clear only deal? is that good news for tear all a james, i think is the wrong use would pay attention to what the president says and not one of his administration does. they would have been much better off. and this is, i think, the lack of understanding of how this is the restriction is different than tom's

1st term in the sense that, that was resistance within the 1st topic, ministration, which could obstruct the elements of the president's policy. which now is really we can't, i mean comp is truly an imperial president that can get whatever he wants. i mean that there was a unique opportunity because folks can strong arm congress into accepting deals with the new ronnie erosion getting that would be on palatable for the obama divided administration or impossible to push true congress latasha mckent achieve that. and i think the mistakes that they run is our committee is that they don't pay attention to the 3 principals that president trump repeatedly puts out there, which i think a good principal from the perspective of their on one is that he says, i don't wonder, is huge and 2nd is that he says i don't want more. and 3rd is that he says that i

only want a nuclear deal. so regardless of what the white house puts in the memo, which are a bunch of mux maximum as demands or a we package packaging of the 12 demands that a former secretary of state, palm po, laid out in 2018 when uh the us with drew from the new care, do you want me to run in and pull his maximum? uh, pressure the very 1st time around. um, regardless of those conditions, if they would do what came to mind it, which was to engage president found, i think he's just so interested in that kind of the aspects of performative diplomacy that he would be willing to suspend pressure. but unfortunately, they ryan's don't see it that way to attention to the maximum of those demands of the memo. and that is the reason that we are now at an impasse. again, i would raise your reaction to that that might be an opportunity here. do you think they go to believe that in toronto,

or are they going to believe that down the line netanyahu is going to convince trump that it needs to be a much tougher policy? now, is there any is are watching the situation very closely. as you mentioned the, the drawing 3 is part of the developments and the region of the, the memo is part of that. i think the remarks by per p felt like microtubule is part of this story. it's not just a leather that we don't know what the content is yet, and it's not just the rewards of that presence wrong. we are seeing different things that are happening. so based on those developments, it doesn't seem that it is just, unfortunately for a tax, it seems more threats. and iranians are good not going to vote on to to any threats . and they don't want and to be threatened like that. you want is very practical and pragmatic and his foreign policy wants to have negotiations only if there is going to be some results. and so for example,

there were the sanctions already moved on linkedin. so, but the point is that the threats uh, in the side of the time being is actually something that you don't cannot and then defense can knows actually accept because it seems that you weren't needs, we can any through the original policy to some extent. does mean, but it's not the way that the americans and these writers on the some other western countries, for example, are thinking of and is knowing about that. the point is that the problem is that this is calculation, seems to be actually taken by these writers. any murray tends to think about targeting a ring in facilities or attacking your on and be sweeping for, for those warnings shortly. so one is assume watching closely to see what the steps are if it is going to be defending itself with defended and completely if it is

going to be and negotiations. if it is a fruitful negotiation, it would go to that. the other gets mentioned about north korea. yes, they have 3 in person meetings, but what the results for the north korean people in the country? nothing. so a long is and doesn't one, just the meetings and negotiations for the sake of negotiation there. once it was the asians for some results, it ones respect for some outcomes. it wants to see that the table is only if there is going to be something for its benefits and national interest and the interest of these people to hi know you what part of the 1st trump administration. i'm interested in those around trump because trump acts, i think on his instincts, but he also sometimes i swayed by those who advising him. but if you look at those who are part of the 1st administration, what he pulled out of in the play deal and really went for it with that maximum pressure. you had, mike, compare the secretary of state jump button,

the national security advisor. you had a chuckle, bron hook, who was the full iran invoice and these people are no longer around trump in fact, but banished from trunk trump's old bit. does that say anything? do you think about his iran policy or just that he's pulling out with those individuals? well, i would say that many of the top advisors to president trump in the national security space during the 2nd administration have some of the same types of leanings towards iran, as the leaders that were around present from the 1st of ministrations. again, secretary, rubio and former congressman walls, i have a very strong views and, and frankly on the record views on iran and the re. busy or ron has played internationally, but he knows a let me, jeremy, get something you have for

a 2nd. there's also that terribly close. it was a little mosque who may not have a cabinet position. he met with the right new mailbox. so does the united nations in november there are different improvements is on trump this time. so yes, i'm not discounting that. and again, we're 6 weeks in uh, you know, a lot of things are still in need to play out. but again, let me talk about the members of the national security team for president trump and i would not include you on mosque as one of those. again, ruby on walter's positions are very, very clear. even secretary hex s position ad d o d has been very clear. so i don't see frankly that there's that there's a lot of dichotomy there. now that being said, as your other guests have mentioned number one, uh, president, trump is in fact the commander in chief and he will make his own decisions. so if

that means perhaps not necessarily agreeing with certain cabinet members, you will do that job at present. trump has demonstrated time and time again, a willingness to engage in international affairs in a unconventional matter. again, north korea. uh, you know, one of the outcomes of his approach was a stop to north korea, nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. i also believe that one of the things that president trump uh, is absolutely a master is leverage. and i would argue, despite your guests from toronto saying that we are misinterpreting the regional environment, i think we have found the last year that many elements of, of power and influence that around has wielded, have been degraded in great measure. so i do believe that at least from a us perspective, the time is in fact right? for ad trying to come to

a negotiation with turan to see where were there could be some sort of consensus between washington and toronto on approaching the fundamental issue of a potential nuclear capability as far as military which i already very high know you met you mention iran regionally suffering and its influence whitening. but the one thing that hasn't stuff with dolly is it's nuclear program is a soon as you read all these all yeah, yeah. you report so the rest of us doesn't have to. i all, i had to look at them. uh the wrong um, according to novembers i, a, a reported around stop all of uranium, and then was $11.00, the 182.3 kilograms. it's now $274.00 killer out kilograms is increased by about 50 percent. ron is enriching. foss doesn't ever. how close is it wrong to having a nuclear weapon right now?

ali so it literally would take iran less than a week to enrich and office on material for a single future with an enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent, which is really just a tiny, tiny step. um, anyone can have an arsenal worth of uh, uh, if it's on, if you're interested in the weapons in, in the course of a month. so we're talking about 4 or 5, a significant quantities for a before a bomb and is at the rate that is enriching as well. i level is now. it can basically have enough material for a single nuclear weapon every single month. so this is i think just to be clear as a stage not just have enriching it, getting the fissile material and getting it weapons grade. there's when putting icing it. i mean, how long does that bit take and does the will see that bit because they're all nuclear inspectors watching the enrichment what he's trying to watch, the enrichment, but they won't see the weapon all his ation will lay. and that's right. i'll do it

wrong. would have to move, this is on it 0 and way from oversize of the you and care wash strong in order to weapon i is the weapon. eyes ation process might take between 3 to 12 months. no, nobody really knows before, but it could happen in secret and if it wrong decides that it wants to basically break out and sneak away some of the space on it to into secret facilities. the game is lost, where you at that point, regardless of how long it would take. of course, that kind of provocative action could be costs as bill i for israel to take minutes, reaction. and this is where i want to go to the point that how many drawers i was making this, you know, and i use uh, the, the head of the center for diplomacy and diplomacy always have to think about what's your best alternative way negotiated agreement. you on, if you look at what the present position was saying in terms of the country's economic situation, a just a few days ago is basically bankrupt and other re struggling to keep the lights on

. so i'm not getting a deal for foreseeable future. i'm not saying would result in regime class or economic collapse, but means much more misery and discontents within their own in population. what other one is this saturday gave me more leverage because as i told you, it ons program is now so advanced that there is very little head space left for additional nuclear escalation that was not across the us and is really red line. and we also have a ticking clock which is different than the 1st term term, which is the new to the un security council. resolutions that endorsed the 2015, the nuclear deal between iran in the world of ours and has still kept the wrong fine. and the un security council will expire in october, and if there is no deal that was kept on going back the wrong zip code program. uh,

basically the europeans would have to snap back to the un sanctions starting this summer. and that means we would end up in a situation of a major non proliferation crisis, because the wrong has promised to withdraw from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty if that happens. so when present from says, we don't have much time left. this is going to come to a head this year in 2025. he is right. and if it was a choice between engagement, even if it gave him, improves few times and not engagement, which is likely to lead to more economic misery and potentially administrative conflict. i think the choices clear how many trays are though, if it's a question of engagement. well known engagement on getting signs, tell me if i'm right is that iran might be moving in the direction of non engagement. you had a reformist president elected back in june, but that being developments in recent weeks, the reef, the vice president has resigned. the economy minister has been impeached. would you

say the position in tyrone is hub name against diplomacy? it's not against, it's almost against me. let's say and use less in depth, almost every kind of say. and then we can say that the, unlike arrow, harness term, i don't know how many is not the handing the diplomacy and the decision over to the present. and just government is taking everything in his own own hand. we can say at least the main policy and a few days ago he clearly mentioned that there is going to be no the negotiations. and yesterday he again mentioned something and reaction to the news about the leather. we are expecting to have some of the actions regarding the leather in, in, in a few days of the next meeting. i think it would be a couple of days from now so that i would expect the reactions

a office your reactions been. but it seems that he's taking everything into his own hand and to because as i said, there is no time for trial and error. he wants to have some outcome for that. he is ready for the final exam for and that was the issue. if it is pragmatic, if it is practical, if there is going to be something and we're on the ground. uh, yep. and it says, ready to pay the price for that because the e $1.00 has done everything to ensure their worth that there is going to be no nuclear weapons. we have had the, the, the most inspections from the i a, the has to meet, have been several reports by the year that the rise that the one has been on for me completing in may, are forfeiting or these commitments. so the, the, the, so far it on has mean following on the or there's and we didn't just if you rate is accepted on the inspections, but there was no outcome. thank you very much. have addressed and thank you tool,

i guess today i know clean how many to raise a gloves audit and revise. we produce this program every day of the you can see it on television on demand. the website out is there a dot com, and there's an audio pod costs version 2. if you have thoughts or comments, go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story, or messages all next, look at a inside story. i'll see you again here very soon, but until then for me, james space and all the team here, please stay safe and well bye. for now, the too much on al jazeera from trade was to seismic shift to us policy on garza and ukraine. president donald trump is shaking up global politics, rigorous debates on slim same questions upfront. cut through the headlines to challenge conventional wisdom on the 14th anniversary of the city and revolution. the phone of the outside regime associated in

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