the ruins restore the stories of the civilizations that marked history was. this is where the story of savannah have. stories to tell could sell sit on slipping to another civil war. fighting in the northeast is endangering already french all power sharing agreements with the war on going and neighboring saddam with a new conflict himself. so don means the reach of this is inside the hello again. jane space a front you all power sharing agreement and the world's youngest nation is being threatened by an upsurge in volumes south. so don's presidents solve a curious as the army is being attacked by on groups linked to his vice president

grant with shaw the 2 or on the opposing sides of a 5 year civil war. before agreeing to rule together in 2018, the violence has been contained to the put no state region. an armed group took control of the city of next year and is exchanged heavy weapons file with government troops. it's unclear who started the fighting, a general this among those killed and un peacekeepers of also being attacked and the capital t, as all the troops to surround the shows home ministers and officials allied with him. i've also been detained. kit is from the thing to ethnic group, white, my shaw is a new, uh, the president has a just the public to state out to the fighting. this fee is gro, ethnic violence may escalate it to you. i have said that our country,

i will not go back to that though. i didn't know who that had south. so don has had a brief but to evident history. shortly after gaining independence of the country to send it into civil war. in 201-340-0000 people were killed. the conflict ended in 2018 with silva kit and rick my shaw entering into a power sharing agreement. under the deal, the 2 factions was supposed to merge into a single national law constitution was to be written and elections held. but none of those things have happened in recent years. the civil war a neighboring saddam is also i bought more instability, sell sit on, all the exports of being completely halted of the major pipelines were disrupted.

we'll go to a panel of guess to discuss this further in a moment, but 1st let speak to nicholas heis and he's the un special representative for south to down. he joins us from to, but thank you very much for joining us on inside story. a simple but very worrying . question for you. how close is south saddam to another civil? will the principal consent? hey, read this back into conflict. we think would be catastrophic. entered searching the b rim addition to the conflict and the tutor shuttle wars they've had since they were in defendants. and thank you live in and more to the region which has enough floors and grab a junior as we speak, as you know, better than anyone else. there are all sorts of political groupings in south to

dawn, but there are 2 main factions, one linked to the president, one linked to the vice president who is to blame for the color, color, and breakdown. we would probably receive those warranties just being responsible for the s collection of changing and we are all together with the partners you mastery, can you me and he knows with that being joining for discrimination, the tension pushed on tom. uh, do you think that if the attention would you purchased it wouldn't be, didn't, uh, be uh, this tension barrier of the peace agreement, which currently has good people mourners in peace for the last 10 years. you're site people in peace for about 10 years, but it's not a very pleasant life. for most people in south sit on and fighting the humanitarian conditions without a fresh conflict, i'm pretty desperate on but the,

to the situation here is it perfect storm, you know, there was demonstrating, trudge around, been in cream to have kind of have still showing that the connecting to job, that's the neighboring country. a, the, there's being around french inflection. uh, there is real poetry in the country and sho, entering from the shock of extensions. and then it has to deal strange everything connected to the issues such as making piece to you refer to the wall in the north, that devastating conflict in saddam how much is this? the result of the spillover from that? because the oil from the pipeline was the main results, the main money coming into south saddam. and i've seen some analysts say that actually the corruption and the spoils from the oil was the glue that was keeping the country to go. we're using continued excuse the rushing

from the electric water revenue that you showed. so don't remember the pressure of conflict. and the kid to this is something we believe the principal financial strength owners can do your work. and we're not only agreeing to you and, but the number of neighboring states have, for some time been going up on the lead, is to exercise restraint, federal court apartment, a phone numbers to exercise restraint. you are, i hope you don't mind me saying a veteran, un official, you've led you an operations in iraq, afghanistan, somalia, you probably know a failed state. if you see one is south sit on a failed state. now it's my report interest and straight because i would want to believe it as

a potential to create and to to create the conditions. much debility in democracy is need, is where to demonstrate the nation. should we need to ship required to, to ship and country in that direction and that would require the leaders to work together to build a college of trust. there is a prerequisite for referring to pc we but those leaders have not done not. you've had a peace agreement, supposedly since to a 2018, but coming out with the constitution coming up with the elections unifying the army, none of those key things have happened during the last 7 years. and you have that to same man at the top of south to don who being the since the countries independence is it time for a new political generation. i'm full, these 2 men to step aside. i think we would have to

going to be of the 2 people concerned that i think the country as a whole has to create the conditions and for the least the test to create a exchange common purpose or something for that, for you. a combination good to, to make clear priorities and to create into some direction of a new stage. you had a role in southern saddam, before it was even south saddam. you weren't one of those involved in the mediation in the peace process that led up to independence in 2011. those were exciting days. as you look back and look with things have gone. now, what is your reflection on how badly things have gone wrong? location too much, these already had profound change,

well disappointment because the jones you will remember. so i have to switch the back of the new chicago and was greeted and you know, she has failed to live up to the weight. sure. his neighbors and its packaging support is vincent. that probably should have instructions on nicholas hayes some special representative for the un set country general and head of the un mission in south sit on the thank you for joining us. thank you. well, let's go now to our other guests today. joining us on the panel from the i wrote a b, i don't post well, international crisis groups project director for the whole of africa. i'm from rome . we have now go out to pool, who is south so so soft to doing research at human rights watch. thank you both for talking to us. now, what can i start with you? you heard the you ends top now, i'm the heads of the un mission on miss,

which has about 14000 peacekeepers in the country saying his principal concern is civil war. he said they are on the precipice. do you believe that's the situation? the induced, also known as a precipice, because the situation is nasir, you cannot be right. and i solution there are many other trigger points, many other flesh points in the country. not there is just one of the latest that we have seen since the beginning of the year. um, what we are witnessing and nicer has had a devastating impact on civilians because since constructs the, renewed in the february, thousands of civilians slept devils and are in desperate conditions without access to health. without food, without access to drinking water. and you know, it's not or up and down and much of thoughts don't, has to be facing as you went to the crisis into the color of break. so if the

situation continues, the, the, the consequences for continuous will be quite, quite dire. but even then at the beginning, in february we solve the use of heavy weapons. we are too heavy weaponry. want to shells and shooting stripes. the, the government study was a i o positions, but also civilian civilian areas was worship. and i think about tends to be as what were killed. and i think a un peacekeeping was injured in um, in the february and also last week to un stoffers along with many others lost their lives. so no sir, is just one issue right now, consults it on, but there are other areas of concern into the west of western equal to rio away the last many weeks that have been cashed as the have displaced thousands to be useful that holds. there's also other areas including south and central equal to area

where the government has continued accounting, such as to compete with the national solution font, which is not potty to a piece deal. so there is significant concern that this little flash point might you need to to, if it is not handled well, if the, if there's no, if there's no disconnection, that consequences, especially in this situation where thoughts about has been moving from one emergency to another, in a very unstable region, dr. situation cru escalate, supposed to be, it's all on the aqua that just gave us a quite a good summary of the flash points around the country. in addition to that arrests taking place in the capital tube, you heard the, you and special representative nicholas heis. i'm saying both sides are responsible . how do you see it? who is responsible for the current spock in volumes? what do you mean the both sides themselves too down but um, as you also mentioned,

your interview with, with he some of the other major players here is the warranty. dan, um, if you can call a player as well. so i think, you know me, this is power sharing government in south sudan has always had a lot of problems. there's been ongoing tension, the 1st vice president who was previously the rebel lee or we are going to charge, you know, he's surrounded by president. here is forces into by, which is obviously a tense situation as it is. we've had lots of escalation and various points within the past few years. i think what makes this time difference is the amount of pressure the war on sudan is putting on the political system on south sudan, both in terms of a loss of revenue, but also in terms of the conflict itself, which is now very much raging on south to dance border and a very, very pull the rise regional environment in which you have some countries important one side, some countries the other. and it's just getting very difficult for south to dan, which is very fragile, very weak as all these visitors within it, it's getting,

it's getting. but what we're, what we're really worried about is basically if you have a political crisis, you have a security crisis that this could merge with the warrant to dan and, and, and grow quite b. yeah. what can you take up that point about the war in the much bigger news and name the seem to be 2 things that the, the, the double refugees some had fled to saddam from south saddam. but coming back again and other refugees coming from. so don and also the economy and the, the shutting down of the is know how pricing anyway of the oil pipeline. well, the fault is because we have a 1000000 people that have fled. uh, this is darnell, more thoughts, the dog. and this since 2023 has really excited to be to it already has created a huge stress on this, you materials up to insults and on those who are coming to coming back to coming to

subsidize majority until the majority of the subsidies return these who have fled multiple times, this last house with offices done, and many of them had to feedback. but there are lots of also many cities who have slept, assaults and on, and you, and have multiple of the other products in the region. and so we're seeing that the conflicting institute on which human rights watch, you know, it has been documenting since the beginning and human rights which has been calling for the protection, was to be invited. as well as for the office of the industrial to be extended across the whole country. and so if the conflict and saddam, he's not been dressed and you know, so don himself, don, despite the separation, have continued to be attached at the head of because of many issues socially but politically and people are only coming. and so it is not a wild guess that as the continued as the conflict in saddam continues. and it also

makes the boldest pores, the possibility of flowing between the 2 countries. very easy as well. so it creates a much more test situation insulted on. and now what we're saying, you know, uh, what's also very concerning and you know, reminds us of events of 2013 and uh, i need to your thoughts dogs, what is the rest or key or position the does. and that's right to buy the secure to service to continue this arrest. and so in spite of the fact that the president has actually called this arrest continue and the detention all key does continues arbitrary patasha is not charge due process. and then this in itself is, is a more important a loan. i believe you were a journalist 14 years ago at the time of independence and covered the situation in

south saddam. i mean, it was a very big picture, wasn't it? at the time? this is a country with an oil rich is it has a timber minerals, it has a live stock, it can export what's gone wrong. well, you need more than oil revenue to build the country i would say. and in fact, having oil revenue when you haven't decided how to share that oil revenue or have any institutions to manage it, might that actually make the thing worse? so i think, you know, like you said, i was around at the time i tried asking a lot of these questions. um uh saying how were we so sure this will go right. there's a lot of signs and we'll go very wrongly. and what i found at the time is that people basically had over confidence that we know how to build a nation that we know how to build the state. and i think some of the filter down to 1000 needs a lead. unfortunately, where they, where they felt like, you know, with the international support, they were going that uh, you know, that they didn't have to think too seriously about some of these matters include,

you know, and in the meanwhile they just fell into civil war instead. and they basically have a scramble of sort of king of the hill scramble for controlling this, this oil revenue. and how many people calls out to be in the most corrupt country on the planet. which, which, you know is what happens when you have a joint part of oil money, no institutions and no political settlement about how to the govern the country. so i think there's a lot of blaine to be shared among many. i also think frankly, something like this probably wouldn't happen nowadays, where there's what you know, was an arrow in which people still believed in nation building and state building. uh to a degree that i think uh, you know, now now is no longer there. mm. a nag, well, if we looked at case of course, after independence, it's sauce it on the can became a completely separate country. but there is, it seems a little bit of a sad symmetry between what has happened in saddam and south. so the on, certainly in, so the a will that's tied very much to, to man,

let me ask you about the situation in south dawn. how much does it come down to these 2 liters? well, given that they have dominated the political scene of the 2 readers and or the only signatories to the peace deal, then not the only stakeholders to the p sacraments. we also forgot to forget that civil society, women leaders, a conduct makes over so the signing of this piece agreements and why we tend to focus on the 2 main principles who have shaped, you know, the political see, you know, south dog for, you know, since 2005 out of the tassels. yeah. john grimes and there are also other stakeholders involved of the african union in the u. n. d. got in various doing this and who are involved in this piece process. so it's about holding these processes to this individuals to account, but also about ensuring that the sub 2 mechanisms that have been put in place,

such as an undergo such as sections and trouble loans that the vision, you know, implement some of these mechanisms that have been put in place and that the, our process is to was ensuring accountability for the many horrendous for richard crime. so we have documented in many others have documented this country. brooke, copy 2013. so at the end of the day, yes, which are and kia and president, kia, uh, fox, but uh, are seemed to be the, you know, the 2 people don't hold much of the interest insults a dog. but as many civil society activists will, will tell you, the country is bigger and the future belongs to many subsidies. yeah, good. just to be clear that one, that point you were making about crimes being committed. and these being the 2 man who's being in charge and,

and they've been puting against each other for so long. what's the position of human rights? what should these 2 men actually be facing charges in? because in human rights abuses, serious crimes have been committed said where there is command responsibility of individuals who are responsible for the serious crimes should be facing trials. and if there is evidence spinning up to the to top men in to do for crimes committed by that respect to false is then that should be accountability to what's the precedence, as well as towards vice president the 1st by as president, which are all and what's your view on these 2 leaders, i mean, would you agree that the time is come from both to leave the stage, but the only way that might happen was if there was a deal that would lead to an election. and of course, there was a, there was a plan in 2018 that was supposed to even be elections at the end of last year. and

this is a country that's never had elections. and yeah, correct. uh, since it depended since 2011 south sudan has never managed to hold elections. i say the uh political uh, docking right now into but is no longer about elections. it's more about, uh, president kia and um his succession. um, i think the general view is that there will probably not be elections, or at least your will probably not step down while he is still alive. and so a lot of the jockey now i'm on the south, we need political lead is basically what happens. you know, what happens when the present here is no longer around, essentially what that means for for react much are so i mean, we might see a situation where these, you know, where, where these 2 men continue to hold south to them. um, you know, for as long as a whole that hostage in a sense for as long as they can. but i will say, i mean, we talked about these 2 men, but they both hold together respective political coalitions. and even when they're

gone and you know it's out to them is likely to still face many of the problems unless they can sit down and essentially do what they should have done before. and dependents would just sit down and have a proper national discussion about what power in the country looks like. what you know, how they will structure the country, how oil revenue will be spent, etc. and they just didn't do that before their independence and no one meet them. now what you mentioned earlier on the international and regional actors in all of this. there are lots of them. mr. hastens united nations, the force. he leads 14000 peacekeepers. he has on the ground, you have the african union involved, you have the regional grouping. e got, do you have the european union? you have what's known as the troika, which of the 3 countries that were involved from before the time of independence? no way the us and the u. k. has the international community got to accept some blame for the mass that is south sit on absolutely. in as much as

thoughts and these leaders you know, uh, take um, you know, shoes. uh, get a lot of lean uh for the suffering that has been pushed on south nice. that is a lot more that the regional international community can do. and if you are to look back, of course, hindsight is a beautiful thing. but if you look back on the last 2 years, i have been missteps as well. um, chief of which, you know, as human rights watch, we have been advocating for the establishment of a hybrid court that would, that would try investigate and try individuals who are responsible for the most serious of abuse is this costs which the african union has, you know, talking it's the establishment has not been established dates when you look at the regional ne buses, original player seemed to understand, but it was established in 2018. they have found ways to ensure you know, to, to, where this has been violated, including with, you know,

the participation of regional access and regional plans will facilitate said, you know, the transport weapons and other issues as well. there's also calling things what the are of costs. we're seeing a flurry of each national and you know, we have to give credit as well. the, the statements of being made a very strong statement, judging for the solution. that's a good step. but this needs to be sustained and the key to let island we've talked about international attention. one country that's pulling out its people from a jew, but diplomats and others is the us. the us was one of the most in susie asked that countries in the creation of south to dom, yet the us under the trump administration, has all sorts of cots is the us doing what it should given the us is

role throughout the early days of saddam is playing is pop now. as you know, the us played a major role on south sedans, independence that i think, you know, most within the region and, and south sea down. i mean, many basically credited the us with securing south to dans independence. and us as more or less washed his hands of south to day and i would say for quite a number of years now, i think, you know, what was the end of the trump administration is an even greater a step back as well. so i mean, you know, in terms of countries who are really still involved. busy down can make a difference. we're mostly looking at african states, especially neighboring regional countries. kenya, ethiopia, south africa is still a major player when it comes to de, escalating this kind of crisis, trying to prevent a full out. so the words, it's those places as well as the ongoing un mission that people are going to be, are going to be looking at to, to try and help resolve this or at least mitigated. thank you very much and thank

you to both all guess today and then both well on the go to full and nicholas heisen who joined us earlier. if you didn't catch all of the conversation, no problem, you can watch it again. any time you want on our website, elgin's 0. don't. com. what should we discuss next time? your thoughts on suggestions of welcome go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com. forward slash a j inside story. or use x or handle is at a inside story. i'll be back in this chat very soon to learn from you james space and all the team here in doha space safe and well bye for now. the a japanese city, devastated by the 2011 earthquake. it's after bob didn't show some survivors believe the $20000.00 souls lost. the natural disaster heart ever present

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