was devastating us a rate on tokyo, unleashed the firestone on a densely populated area within the paper house by sunrise more than a $100000.00 people. but that 70 years later, those who survived seek recognition and compensation for the event that defined their lives. only to find themselves still cost aside. witness paper sitting on a just either could settle saddam slip into another civil war. fight seeking the northeast is endangering and already french, all power sharing agreement with the war on getting a neighboring saddam with a new conflict himself. saddam means the reach of this is inside the lower cadillac. james space front you all power sharing agreements in the world's

youngest nation is being threatened by an upsurge in volumes south saddam's president, solver curious as the army is being attacked by on groups linked to his vice president grant with shaw the 2 or on the opposing sides of a 5 year civil war before agreeing to rule together in 2018. the violence has been contained to the put no state region unarmed group to control of the city of next year. and is exchanged heavy weapons file with government troops. it's unclear who started the fighting of general is among those killed and un peacekeepers of also being attacked and the capital t, as all the troops to surround the shops, home ministers and officials, allied with him. i've also been detained. kit is from the think the ethnic group, i'm a shaw is a new, a president as a just the public to stay out to the fighting. his fee is grow, ethnic violence may escalate to you as

i have said that our country will not go back to that though i didn't know who the south. so don has had a brief but to evident history. shortly after gaining independence of the country descended into civil war in 201-340-0000 people were killed. the conflict ended in 2018 with silva kit and rick marcia entering into a power sharing agreement. under the deal, the 2 factions was supposed to merge into a single national law. constitution was to be written and elections held. but none of those things have happened. in recent years, the civil war a neighboring saddam has also bought more instability. sell sit on all the exports

of being completely halted of the major pipelines with disrupted we'll go to a panel of guests to discuss this further in a moment, but 1st let speak to nicholas hayes some. he's the un special representative for south sit down. he joins us from to beth, thank you very much for joining us on inside story. a simple but very worrying. question for you. how close is south saddam to another civil war? the principal can say, hey, really, back into conflict. we think would be catastrophic. entered searching a b rim addition to the conflict and the to show awards they've had since they were independent. and thank you live in and more to the region

which has enough floors and grab a junior every spring. as you know, better than anyone else. there are all sorts of political groupings in south to dawn, but there are 2 main factions, one linked to the president, one linked to the vice president who is to blame for the color, color, and breakdown. we would probably receive those warranties just being responsible for the s collection of changing and we are all together with the partners. you mastery, can you me and he knows we have been trying for discrimination. the tension pushed on tom. uh, do you think that if the attention would you purchased it wouldn't be, didn't, uh, be uh, this tension barrier of the peace agreement, which currently has good people mourners. page for the last 10 years. your site, people in peace for about 10 years. but it's not a very pleasant life,

for most people in south sit on and finally humanitarian conditions without a fresh conflict. i'm pretty desperate on but the to the situation here is a perfect storm. you know, there was demonstrating trudge. now, over a 1000000 people have come, have still showing that the connecting to job that's the neighboring country. a, the, there's been around french inflection. there is real poetry in the country and show entering from the circumstances. and it has to deal strange everything connected to the issues such as making piece to you refer to the wall in the north, that devastating conflict in saddam how much is this? the result of the spillover from that? because the oil from the pipeline was the main results, the main money coming into south saddam. and i've seen some analysts say that

actually the corruption and the spoils from the oil was the glue that was keeping the country to go. we're using continued excuse to the rushing from the electric water revenue that you showed. so don't remember the pressure cushion of conflict. and the kid is something we believe the principal political strain coders can deal with. and we didn't know the new a, but the number of neighboring states have a sub job been going up on the lead is to exercise restraint, federal court apartment, a phone numbers to exercise restraint. you are, i hope you don't mind me saying a veteran, un official, you've led you an operations in iraq, afghanistan, somalia, you probably know a failed state. if you see one is south sit on a failed state. now,

it's not reported to send straight because i would want to believe it as a potential to create and to, to create the conditions. much debility in democracy is need, is where to demonstrate the nation. should we need to ship required to, to stay in the country in that direction and that would require the leaders to work together to build a college of trust. there is a prerequisite for an effective piece of we but those leaders have not done not. you've had a peace agreement, supposedly since to a 2018, but coming out with the constitution coming up with the elections unifying the army . none of those key things have happened during the last 7 years. and you have said to same man at the top of south to don who being the since the countries

independence is it time for a new political generation. i'm full, these 2 men to step aside and we're going to be open to people concerned that i think the country as a whole rest are creating conditions for the least the task to create a change on purpose or something for that plan and coming nationhood to to make clear priorities and to create a to foundation of a new stage. you had a role in southern saddam before it was even south saddam. you weren't one of those involved in the mediation in the peace process that led up to independence in 2011 . those were exciting days as you look back and look with things have gone now.

what is your reflection on how badly things have gone wrong? location traumatic stage already had profound change. well disappointment because the jones you will remember. so i have to switch the battery on the new chicago and was greeted and you know, she has failed to live up to the arms which share his neighbors and its packaging support is facing. that probably should have instructions on nicholas hayes some special representative for the un set country general and head of the un mission in south sit on the sign to you for joining us. thank you. well, let's go now to our other guests today. joining us on the panel from nairobi, i don't both. well, international crisis groups, project director for the whole of africa. i'm from rome. we have now go out to the pool, who is south so so soft to dawn,

research at human rights watch. thank you both for talking to us. now, what can i start with you? you heard the you ends top now. i'm the heads of the un mission on miss, which has about 14000 peacekeepers in the country saying his principal concern is civil war. he said they are on the precipice. do you believe that's the situation? the induced, also known as a precipice? because the situation and officer you cannot be right. and i solution there are many other trigger points, many other flash points in the country. not there is just one of the latest. uh then we have seen since the beginning of the year. um, what we are witnessing and nicer has had a devastating impact on civilians. because since constructs the renewed in the february, thousands of civilians slept at homes and are in desperate conditions without access to health, without food, without access to drinking water. and you know,

it's not up and down and much of thoughts don't, has to be facing as you went to the crisis into the color of break. so if the situation continues, the, the, the consequences for continues will be quite, quite dire. but even then at the beginning, in february we solve the use of heavy weapons. we are too heavy weaponry. want to shells and shooting stripes. the, the government study was a i o positions, but also civilian civilian areas was worship. and i think about 10 studios were, were killed. and i think a un peacekeeping was injured in um, in the february. and also last week to un stoffers along with many others lost their lives. so no sir is just one issue right now consulted on, but there are other areas of concern and to the west of western equal to rio where

the last many weeks that have been cashed as the have displaced thousands to be useful. the holes. there's also other areas including south and central equal to area where the government has continued accounting, such as to compete with the national solution font, which is not potty to a piece deal. so there is significant concerns that this little flash point might need to to if it is not handled well. if the, if there's no, if there's no disconnection, that consequences, especially in this situation where thoughts about has been moving from one emergency to another, in a very unstable region, dr. situation cru escalate, supposed to be, it's all on the act with that just gave us a quite a good summary of the flash points around the country. in addition to that arrest taking place in the capital, juba, you heard the un special representative nicholas high, some st. both sides are responsible. how do you see it?

who is responsible for the current spock in violence? what do you mean the both sides themselves to down but um, as you also mentioned your interview with, with he some of the other major players here is the warranty. dan, um if you can call a player as well. so i think, you know me, this is power sharing government in south sudan has always had a lot of problems. there's been ongoing tension. the 1st vice president who was previously the rebel lee or we are going to charge, you know, he's surrounded by president here is forces into bar, which is obviously a tense situation as it is. we've had lots of escalation and various points within the past few years. i think what makes this time difference is the amount of pressure the war on sudan is putting on the political system on south sudan, both in terms of a loss revenue, but also in terms of the conflict itself, which is now very much raging on south to dance border and a very, very pull the rise regional environment in which you have some countries important

one side, some countries the other. and it's just getting very difficult for us out to them, which is very fragile, very weak as all these visitors within it, it's getting, it's getting what we're, what we're really worried about is basically, if you have a political crisis, you have a security crisis that this could merge with the warrant to dan and, and, and grow quite b. yeah. what can you take up that point about the war in the much bigger northern name? the seem to be 2 things that the, the, the double refugees. some had fled to saddam from south saddam. but coming back again and other refugees coming from. so dawn and also the economy and the, the shutting down of the is no help pricing any way of the oil pipeline. well, the 1st is because we have, 0 one be, and people, the house like, uh the starting more into salts and on. and this since 2023 has really excited to

be to an already has created a huge stress on this, you materials up to insults and all of those who are coming to coming back coming to subsidize majority. and so majority of the subsidies return these who have fled multiple times. this less also gone for saddam. and many of them had to feedback. but there are lots of also many cities who have fled to south dawn and you and have multiple of other products in the region. and so we're seeing that the conflicting institute on which human rights watch, you know, what has been documenting since the beginning and human rights, which has been calling for the protections to be invited as wireless for the opposite of the green dot for, to be extended across the whole country and so if the conflict in saddam is not addressed and you know, so don, insulted on despite the separation, have continued to be attached at the head of because of many issues, socially,

politically. and people normally come in. and so it is not a wild guess that as the continued as the conflict into the dog continues. and it also makes the boldest pores, the possibility of flowing between the 2 countries. very easy as well. so it creates a much more test situation, insulted on. and now what we're saying, you know, uh, what's also very concerning and you know, reminds us of events of 2013 and your thoughts dogs, what is the rest or key or positions the does. and that's right by the security service to continue this, the rest. and so in spite of the fact that the president has actually called this arrest continue and the detention all key does continues arbitrary patasha is not charge due process. and then this in itself is, is

a word important. the island, i believe you were a journalist 14 years ago at the time of independence and covered the situation in south saddam. i mean, it was a very big picture, wasn't it? at the time? this is a country with oil rich is it has a timber minerals, it has a live stock, it can export what's gone wrong. well, you need more than oil revenue to build the country. i would say in, in fact having oil revenue when you haven't decided how to share that oil revenue or have any institutions to manage it, might that actually make the thing worse? so i think, you know, like you said, i was around at the time i tried asking a lot of these questions. um uh saying, how were we so sure this will go right. there's a lot of science and we'll go very wrongly. and what i found at the time is that people basically had it over confidence that we know how to build a nation that we know how to build

a state. and i think some of that filter down to south needs a lead. unfortunately, where they, where they felt like, you know, with the international support, they were going that uh, you know, that they didn't have to think too seriously about some of these matters include, you know, and in the meanwhile they just fell into civil war instead. and they basically have a scramble, a sort of king of the hill scramble for controlling this, this oil revenue. and how many people calls out to be in the most corrupt country on the planet. which, which, you know is what happens when you have a joint thought of oil money, no institutions and no political settlement about how to govern the country. so i think there's a lot of blaine to be shared among many. i also think frankly, something like this probably wouldn't happen nowadays, where there's what you know is an error on which people still believed in nation building and state building. uh to a degree that i think uh, you know, now now is no longer there. mm. a nag, well, if we look at the case, of course, after independence, it's sounds to them to keep you can't completely separate country. but there is,

it seems a little bit of a sad symmetry between what has happened in saddam and south. so the on, certainly in, so the a will that's tied very much to, to man, let me ask you about the situation in south dawn. how much does it come down to these 2 liters? well, given that they have dominated the political scene of the 2 readers and or the only signatories to the peace deal, then not the only stakeholders to the p sacraments. we also forgot to forget that civil society, women leaders, a conduct makes over so the signing of this piece agreements and why we tend to focus on the 2 main principles who have shaped, you know, the political see, you know, south dog for, you know, since 2005 out of the tassels. yeah, john graham. and there are also other stakeholders involved of the african union in the u. n. d. got in various doing this and who are involved in this piece process.

so it's about holding these processes to this individuals to account, but also about ensuring that the sub 2 mechanisms that have been put in place, such as an undergo such as sections and travel bonds that the vision you know implements some of these mechanisms that have been put in place and that the, our process is to was ensuring accountability for the many horrendous for richard crime. so we have documented and many others have documented since country copy 2013. so at the end of the day, yes, which are in kia and president, kia uh, fox, but the are seem to be the, you know, the 2 people don't hold much of the interest insults a dog. but as many civil society active, this will will tell you the country is bigger and the future belongs to many

subsidies. yeah, good. just to be clear that one, that point you were making about crimes being committed. and these being the 2 man who's being in charge and, and they've been puting against each other for so long. what's the position of human rights? what should these 2 men actually be facing charges in? because in human rights abuses, serious crimes have been committed said where there is command responsibility of individuals who are responsible for the serious crimes should be facing trials. and if there is evidence spinning up to the, to top men in to do for crimes committed by their respective forces, then that should be accountability to what's the precedence, as well as a towards vice president in the 1st vice president which are all and what's your view on these 2 leaders. i mean, would you agree that the time is come from both to leave the stage,

but the only way that might happen was if there was a deal that would lead to an election. and of course, there was a, there was a plan in 2018 that was supposed to even be elections at the end of last year. and this is a country that's never had elections. that yeah, correct. uh, since it depended since 2011 south sudan has never managed to hold elections. i say the uh political uh, docking right now into but is no longer about elections. it's more about, uh, president kia and um his succession. um, i think the general view is that there will probably not be elections or least cure will probably not step down while he is still alive. and so a lot of the jockeying now i'm on the south. we need political lead is basically what happens, you know, what happens when our present carrier is no longer around. essentially what that means for, for react much are so, i mean, we might see a situation where these, you know, where, where these 2 men continue to hold south sudan. um, you know,

for as long as a whole that hostage in a sense for as long as they can. but i will say, i mean, we talked about these 2 men, but they both hold together respective political coalitions. and even when they're gone and you know it's out to them is likely to still face many of the problems unless they can sit down and essentially do what they should have done before. and dependents would just sit down and have a proper national discussion about what power in the country looks like. what you know, how they will structure the country, how well revenue will be spend, etc. and they just didn't do that before their independence and no one meet them. now what you mentioned earlier on the international and regional actors in all of this. there are lots of them. mr. hastens united nations, the force. he leads 14000 peacekeepers. he has on the ground, you have the african union involved, you have the regional grouping. e got, do you have the european union? you have what's known as the troika, which is 3 countries that were involved from before the time of independence, no way the us and the u. k. has the international community got to accept some

blame for the mass that is self. sit on. yeah, absolutely. you know, as much as thoughts and these leaders you know, uh, take um, you know, shoes. uh get a lot of lame uh for the suffering that has been imposed themselves. nice. that is a lot more that the reach an international community can do. and if you are to look back, of course, hindsight is a beautiful thing. but if you're to look back on the last 2 years, i have been missteps as well. um, chief of which, you know, as human rights watch, we have been advocating for the establishment of a hybrid court that would, that would try investigate and try individuals who are responsible for the most serious of abuse is this cost? which data can union has, you know, talking it's an establishment has not been established dates. when you look at the original ne buses,

original player seemed to understand. but it was established in 2018. they have found ways to ensure you know, to, to, where this has been violated, including with, you know, the participation of regional actors, individual plans will facilitate that, you know, the transfer of weapons and other issues as well. there's also calling things what the are of costs. we're seeing a flurry of each national and you know, we have to give credit as well. the, the statements are being made a very strong statement, judging for the solution. that's a good step. but this needs to be sustained. and the key to let allan, we've talked about international attention. one country that's pulling out its people from a jew, but diplomats and others is the us. the us was one of the most in susie asked that countries in the creation of south to dom,

yet the us under the trump administration, has all sorts of cots is the us doing what it should given the us is role throughout the early days of saddam is playing is part now. how do you know, do you guys played a major role on south c downs independence that i think you know, most within the region and, and south sea that i mean many, basically credited the us with securing south to dans independence and us as more or less washed his hands of south to day and i would say for quite a number of years now, i think, you know, what was the end of the trump administration is an even greater a step back as well. so i mean, you know, in terms of countries who are really still involved. busy down can make a difference. we're mostly looking at african states, especially neighboring regional countries. kenya, ethiopia, south africa is still a major player when it comes to de, escalating this kind of crisis,

trying to prevent a full out. so the words, it's those places as well as the ongoing un mission that people are going to be, are going to be looking at to, to try and help uh, resolve this or at least mitigate it. thank you very much and thank you to both august today and then both well on the go to full and nicholas heisen who joined us earlier. if you didn't catch all of the conversation, no problem, you can watch it again. any time you want on our website, elgin's 0. don't. com. what should we discuss next time? your thoughts on suggestions are welcome. go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. or use x or handle is at a inside story. i'll be back in this chapter as soon to learn from you jane space, and all the team here in doha space. safe and well bye. for now, the too much on al jazeera from trade was to size make shift to us policy on garza and ukraine. president donald trump is

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