the, did you realize that's what the vision is? the new to the movie has and goes head to head with full. mr. and i can president rhino but converse thing go. i a really important even before you were born. i know we're so much i called of the problem at the head on al jazeera shaw woods to the us from tentative and coming. prime minister won't come use lashed out. donald trump saying his country will never be called to the united states as a standoff between the 2 nations intensifies. how will connie deal with trump? this is inside stored the hello that on james bay's monk county, canada's incoming prime minister says he will confront head on the challenge his country is facing from his powerful neighbor us present. donald trump has imposed

terrace on nearly all goods coming from canada. connie has promised to push back with trade taxes of his own and is seeking to unite canadians against this challenge from america, with the elections on the horizon. how will this play out politically and come kind of those close relationship with us survive this term. uh, we'll go to a panel in just a few moments, but 1st this report from clinton hold on. mark carney is kind of this new prime minister designate. there's an election on the horizon, but it's liberal party is only a few points behind its conservative rivals. the what was your 3 more as a former central bank, cheap supporter. say he's the right man to lead canada as it faces an economic showdown with the united states. as the americans want, our resorts is our water or land our country. think about it. if they, if they succeeded,

they would destroy our way of life. us present donald trump wants to pose a 25 percent power on nearly all goods from canada. so deliveries are already been implemented. others postponed to early april. mexico and china are also facing tough measures. trump is complained about what he says are unfair trade taxes on us goods. and he wants to 3 countries to do more to stem the flow of illegal drugs and other documents migrants to the u. s. president trump has promised old trading partners that impose tariffs will face reciprocal measures. it's going to be very costly for people to take advantage of this country. they can come in and steal our money and steal our jobs and take our factories and take our businesses. and expect not to be punished, and they're being punished by tariffs canada, as long with one of america's closest allies and trade partners. in 2024, it bought more us exports than any other country around $350000000000.00 worth. it

was also the 3rd largest supplier of goods to the us at around $412000000000.00. the 2 countries are both part of the nato alliance, the g 7 and the 5 eyes intelligence sharing network. but it will, this appears to account for little with president trump. it's not clear how long this trade will last or what a deal might look like. but once the dust settles, it may prove difficult for relations between the us and canada to return to business as usual, fits and bonnet al jazeera for inside story. the, well, let's discuss all of this further with today's gas and from the canadian city of cambridge on tell in ontario, which owned by jim how some she's the executive director of the broadband institute of progressive think tank in washington dc. amy coke, republican strategist, who served as majority leader of the minnesota senate and didn't send to guston in

florida junk gun professor emeritus of political science at the university of toronto and founder of the g 7, n g 20 research groups. thank you. all of you for joining us on inside story today . let me start with you, jen. we have 2 canadians on the panel, but anyone currently in canada, the 24th president of canada is going to be mach connie. if i told you that last year, what did a surprise do? there was a pole in july last year, which canadians, we shouldn't. connie's picture, 93 percent had no idea who we was. that's right. and there has been a lot of bars of shake up in the canadian political scene. justin trudeau resigning abruptly in, in january. i don't think canadians would have predicted that, nor i don't think we would have predicted the rise of, of mark harney and the return of the liberal party. i think most canadians would

have thought that up here probably and was wanting to be issuing to be our next prime minister during the next election, which needs to happen between some time, between now and october. but with the resignation of justin trudel, mark carney, former governor of the bank of canada, former governor of the bank to of england has been elected the new liberal leader. and he is very much not connected with a peer. probably us conservatives join your political analyst. he becomes the prime minister that is definite. but does he stay the prime minister because there are elections have to be held? i believe, by october, the 20th, but many believe there's going to be a snap election. is that what you think is likely, john? i think it's highly likely um that mark hardy was in the coming days. we'll go to where the governor general law king charles representative here, the solver and, and say, to solve the house of commons call a general election. i need

a mandate from the canadian people to confront donald trump, to win the tariff war. and indeed, to do all the other things. i need to keep canadians safe, secure, and prosperous. and the poles on the whole, they show the 2 parties, the opposition of conservatives, led by peer polio, and the liberals now led by mark, currently our neck and neck. but the leading pole that is proved to be the most accurate one shows there's a very good chance that in a general election, mark hardly will secure a majority government and habit. by the time he house the g 7 summit in canada, ask us a little bird. uh uh, canada on june 15th. and that is going to be quite

a day. we'll come back to the moment. jump just to be clear. it's because not all of us around the world will understand how the system works. in canada, you have a parliament treat the system, but you now have a prime minister who is not a member of parliament do we assume he's going to try and find a seat during the selection? so that's one choice. he has a is to uh, call a bi election and a window seat, but that would take too long. certainly uh, in the general election. uh which uh you could start um in a couple of days he would. busy run in um i see uh very likely uh it is said uh in one of the safe liberals seats. that's in downtown toronto, the biggest city in canada. and there are now suddenly more safe liberal seats. so he's got

a choice. i don't think he'll pick one in alberta highly on favorable to the liberal party for decades. and now even though. busy margaret carney himself was the rate is done in they'll burn out if he becomes the prime minister. he'd be the 1st prime minister from alberta west in some time. it's amy because the backdrop of all of this is the really bad relations. you could never predicted they'd be like this between the us and canada. donald trump says he's putting these tennis on canada, but it goes further than that. he's been going the country and says it will become the should become the 51st state. kind of, there's always been a good night, but i mean, what do you make of, of trump, treating canada in such a hostile ways. this the way you treat an ally and a neighbor. so um, what donald trump is doing, and you can see it very clearly as strategy is to,

is to lock down and secure the western hemisphere. yeah, but there his talks with mexico where he stopped, you know, the illegal center where he slowed down. fentenol trade with the tariffs with canada and mexico, greenland tox, shutting down the china. they're getting shutting the chinese out of the panama canal talks of columbia. it's clearly like putting in a demarcation to secure and to lockdown dominance in our western hemisphere. that said, i think a far better way to secure that with our canadian neighbors, which would be, would be in a more friendly manner. that's tends to not be trumps way. um, but i do think that there are, there was an has ministry administration, particularly secretary of state micro rubio that will understand the need for actual you know, soft diplomacy. it's, it's, it is trumps way. he goes very hard on the rhetoric and then he comes back to kind

of deal, and i expect that that is ultimately what will happen here with mark, honey. i mean, you are a senior, what a senior republican in your state to minnesota. and you say that's trump, this way, this hostile and some websites cool language that he uses he's, he's serious and we do think about this idea of antic section. i don't believe you serious. so how the antics ation, i don't believe is even serious about the project green on becoming a projector. and i think that he's looking for trading partners. ultimately, he is ultimately, while he is, he can be a bully. he is ultimately transactional and wants to get a deal, and this is his way of getting a deal. and i can disagree with that. but i do agree geopolitically that strengthening americans hand in our own, in our own backyard, in our own hemisphere is of utmost importance. and, you know, knowing when to push hard and then when to back off. um, you know,

will be the question, can he, can he draw that balance before he does real harm? by the way, potentially to not just get it as a economic situation. but americans, americans as well. jen, of course, we've had to to empower for almost a decade, and it's been clear for some time that he was in the waning days of his time and power in a democracy. after about a decade, people start to get taught of you do things with trump. some of this was about crudo. he's sense that he was weak. how much do you think it was a personal issue with true to? so i, i don't think it was a personal, personal issue with, with true though. and in fact, you've seen uh, president trump, uh say that doesn't really matter which leader is of, in canada, that this is a policy that he's, he's looking to pursue when it comes to tariffs on canada. but, but that being said, certainly trumps. challenge to canada has been

a hindrance for the conservatives and in canada, i myself, i don't live in the major cities in um, in canada as my own neighbors and my own friends and family who may have um, really looked upon trump very favorably and wore in their own mega hats and had their own, you know, a trump, uh, from flags even on their homes. now i don't look towards trump as as friendly or something that they'd want to emulate in canada. and so to some degree, the rise of mark carney might not be because of a rehabilitated liberal brand in canada or more coordinate yourself. but it might be the diminishment of conservatives and canada, who have in, in many cultural ways and, and even direct ways adopted a sort of mega republican. um, you know, type in style was politics. and now canadians who were in that camp are just having

2nd thoughts because they're seeing by especially working costs people, they're seeing that their pocket books and their jobs are, could be affected by this. this chaos that trump is bringing. john, we know the economy will be the prime minister in the coming days. we don't know, as i said, of the wrong, whether he's gonna stay the prime minister. but let's just take a little bit deeper into who mot connie is and why he has appeal at this moment. i mean, he's a form of bank form, a central bank in the u. k. the bank of england. and also they run the bank of canada, both at a time of political turmoil in canada during the financial crisis in 2008 in the u . k. during that very big moment of tomorrow and breaks it. do you think he is suited for this time of crisis right now for canada? a very much so and most recently he had a very senior position and one of the candidates leading financial asset firms

from brookfield asset management closely connected to the equivalent leaders, jamie diamond and others in new york city. so he knows the economy called from the public and private sector and the world of finance. and that's exactly the kind of expertise. so you need to win the tara for who's against donald trump and. busy all that you can all make damage, it's doing get the financial assistance with the new york stock exchanges and asset just plummeting again. and again, i'm down 900 points um, yesterday. he also, of course, is not just in crude all, and that's the one thing everybody knew about him from the start. and i do the same guy that with justin showed out for donald trump. that was

a bit personal justin and shrewd all was a young a loved by everybody when he 1st appeared on the world stage and believed in all the things donald trump would say were uh, well gender equality. he was a leader to doll at home and abroad. indigenous um, peoples reconciliation um, legalize marijuana. uh very strongly in favor of the l. b g t q. uh plus um, camino de mar carney is personally associated with none of those things. the one big issue facing the citizens in the united states, canada of the world, climate change, and mark kearney was the one who led the private financial system to

control climate change in their long term business interest. so i think he's got a very strong constituency amongst his fellow g 7 leaders, but among many citizens of the united states, those in los angeles with a wildfires, those on the outskirts of new york city, the hamptons are burning now. and so many other places in the united states, the country. well, um, by the time we get to the canada, ask a stomach, have more appeal um to the real issue. this dangers of the citizens of the united states been donald trump with his big bold read or a good. okay. to jen and, and in terms of his background, i mean, he went to harvard and not split. he is this bush bookish central bank, but has he shown just in the last couple of weeks?

perhaps another side of you perhaps, is a shop, a slick of media media performed within some had expected and it seems he's prepared to go on the attack, attacking one man and protect to the a yes indeed, he's done the media circuit in the united states. i'm here in canada and he's performing better than i think a former governor of uh to, to national banks would have been expected to an engaging with people one on one. but i would caution some of the confidence that people are having right now in this discussion. and just, i guess perhaps threw a wrench into the narrative. um, if the goal is to recapture some of these 2020, uh, 2015 liberals who voted for truth. oh, and for, for who now have moved to the conservative party. i think mark currently does need to be aware of i of, you know, in this time where there is

a surging populist right to being leading with these kinds of international credentials. and instead, focusing on the real material issues that canadians are facing when it comes to jobs, housing, health care, these are the top issues that canadians are concerned about. and, you know, people might not necessarily find that he's him running brookfield asset management or his time at goldman sachs. wouldn't be your trust amongst the canadian working class to him. so this is, this is a balance that i think some of the rural strategists, i hope they take that into account when they're putting together mark carney's campaign. and let me also just stay for your audience. this is exactly why mark hardy is expected to call in the election in the next 5 days, because a canadian election is just 30 to 40 days long, and you only have that period. and so it will take time for mark hardy's opponents from the conservatives and the new democrats to run contrast and read

a fine mark. currently in the negative light to the canadian population. they want to go now the liberals want to go now as the liberal party has the highest point, they've had public point, they've had since 2021. so that's the nature of why he would be calling an election right now at its height. and before opposition parties can really make a case against them. to amy, let me ask you about monk connie and the view from your side of the border. if you had very little name recognition just a few months ago in canada, one assumes in the us, not many people know who mach connie is yet, but they all going to find out all the, i mean it, it is, i'm in his comments. he sent me being on the attack, he's about to enter an election campaign. and it seems the way he's running things so far. he thinks his main opponent is actually, donald trump is not just going to make things worse. let's start panned out well

for anybody that's gone head to head with donald trump in that way. and i also think it's interesting to hear well, a lie in martha's vineyard, martha's vineyard are going to know i'm in support and that's, that's not where trans power is. derive. this power is derived from the rust belt. it's drive from southern, the southern states. it's derived from texas and arizona, those on the border that are worried about immigration. it's drive to my neck of the woods with the farmers and, and, and party would do very well to lead into is alberta routes and less than to toronto. and by that, i mean, there is a past year. jenny alluded to this that her reserve her smog, a cheering canadian family and friends are, are now hesitant. right. which i think is contributing to carney's rise and the conservative party, a bit fumbling but party can fumble that completely by ignoring the populace movement that there is. there is real concern in minnesota around the terrace. we have hog farmers on the border of canada that have farms built in minnesota and in

canada. and they are deeply, deeply concerned about this impact across the state. farmers who are traditionally trauma supporters that have deep concerns leading into that before tell being his way and trying to recapture some sort of like other to go ask populism in, in, in new york and in california would not be the best approach if you're going to take donald trump on head on and also any way you come from minnesota, there is a threshold believe to your electricity supplies that come from canada. so we're, we're little less concerned about that. my. so we're on a grid system that is designed to sort of absorb impacts from loss of power, say, manage or october hydro or the light. and so with that distributed system we're, we're bit less worried about electricity. but should the tariffs continue and the

trade work continue, that could become an issue as well, along with the oil and other, or your tar sands oil and other imports from canada. gen. i mean, if you look at the polls right now, he's not actually connie had, he's still slightly behind. so tell us about the mine he's up against in an election. i'm sure he's up against a peer probably as who is the leader of the conservative party of canada. and i here was enjoying tremendous momentum that in my generation, i don't think i've seen since triple 2015. and that momentum was created through a populist waive up here, probably a is a career politician. he was elected at a young age to serve entitlement. he's raised in alberta and has a very strong libertarian values. he, during the course of his leadership race would pay um, you know,

have signifiers. i with the, the trucker conway and that kind of the experience. and his main message took to me and was on housing, inflation cost of living and in taxes. so i, i think what we're seeing is that, um, for example, sure, probably as the main point was the removal of the carbon tax and mark carney. one of the 1st things that he said in his leadership campaign was that he was going to remove the consumer carbon tax. so in some regards, you know, we are seeing the rise of corny. yes. at the same time as, as the trump trips to canada. but he's positioning himself to also mimic some of peers leading popular ideas. so those are loaded restrictions. you'll notice from just intruder let me bring are more likely to look for. so what about the, the, how this is going to be viewed by all the allies because kind of course is

a member of nato, as a member of the g 7. and as you've already mentioned, john, the timing is remarkable. canada is hosting the g 7 and on june the 15th, it's supposed to have a summit of, of those leaders, including trump, to even think trump is going to attend. oh, i do indeed. um, he certainly did the last time. uh, canada, hosted the uh she 7 summit that was in shotwell club back in 2018. and donald trump will go because he loves to be the center of attention both in the usa. uh it's in the same time zone, but around the world. um, andy also will want to cancel his fellow leaders. what they much to do. i'm thinking that they'll um, obey him. he's already a just started to wage tariff wars. not only against canada, mexico,

china, but also against the european union in these now threatening japan. so all of the 6 g, 7 leaders will band together and say donald, we're all standing together against you. we're trading and we'll trade more amongst ourselves if you shut off of the us. so markets to us. okay. me, i wanna bring it to me quickly on this. if i can amy the following week, off to the g 7, there's a nato summit to coast. kind of, there was a nato meant, but we have the situation with regard to ukraine. do you have worries that all of this is going to mean the west and the launch is existed since the end of world war 2? a 2 years ago is collapsing? i have no concerns about that. i think the western alliance is actually going through a needed sort of a i needed um questioning. um i whether it's nato and our european allies,

you know, not a meeting. they're required to percent of so many of them have not. and which, by the way, 2 percent is a floor on the military. um, other military spend or where it's, we're minnesota is, but we're, i'm sorry where you do us as decided we can't be always the only person sort of providing military support around the world. we need our allies to really be at the table to be allies that that's what america is looking for. i believe that's what trump is pushing for. he does it in a way that i think is, is problematic, and that the balance can get out of out of it can get simply out of whack. right. he can go too far and striking that balance a lot with the g 7, with nato across the world with all our allies, is going to be very important. there's a point to where you can push people. and there's a point where you can push people too far and you need to make sure to,

to strike that proper balance. and, and, and so we'll see. thank you very much and we thank you to all about guess today, jen, how some amy, coke and john cook. we have teams reporting for both sides come to the us, stay tuned and find more coverage and analysis douches, 0 dot com. we always, always want to hear from you with your comments and thoughts go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story, or find this on x. look for a inside story. i'll be back when the inside story spotlight moves to the next topic, until then to meet and space and all the team here, please stay safe and healthy by the a meeting of minds discussing the defining issues of our time. in one year we source that change, it became clear at that point that we really were in that kind of a new era of a nobel peace, slower. it's maria, theresa and professor michael wooldridge and explore the titles and possibilities

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. ready i mean site in the high here, top stories on out there. ukraine has back to us proposal for a 5 seat day space 5, but there is no word yes on whether russia will agree to us. off to 3 is a full breakthrough came off to 9 hours of talks between us on ukrainian officials in saudi arabia, sections of state monica review, as also announced the us and will immediately lift a freeze on ministry aid and intelligence sharing with you. crime. yeah, hold for jobs or the.