tonight at ten, a growing and ageing population, and the nhs under exceptional pressure. the second of our special reports from the royal blackburn hospital, where they confront a lack of beds on a daily basis. ready for the surgery. itjust seems to be the bed that's the problem. yeah, the beds the problem. as demand soars, the hospital boss says better care for the elderly is the key to relieving pressure. you don't want to be in hospital if you don't need to be in hospital. i would far rather have capacity in the community intends of nursing in the community in terms of nursing homes and care homes. and a new report says health funding in england will struggle to keep pace with demand. the brexit bill makes progress, and mps are told they will be given a take—it—or—leave—it vote on the final brexit deal. an appeal court is told that a former royal marine convicted of murdering a wounded taliban fighter in afghanistan was mentally ill at the time.

and, it's the robot challenge. can jobs be protected when automation takes over? and in sportsday on bbc news, alastair cook speaks after stepping down as england cricket captain, saying he could no longer give his all in the job, but wants to continue playing for his country. good evening. we start tonight with the second of our special reports on the state of the nhs in england, as it struggles to cope with ever—rising demand. the institute for fiscal studies has warned that spending on health is unlikely to rise sufficiently to cope with the demands of a growing and ageing population. more on that in a moment, after our special correspondent ed thomas reports from the royal blackburn hospital, which was built to serve

a population of 300,000 people, but is now serving more than half a million. every bed on every ward. never know what is coming through the door. never. lives depending on the nhs. i wouldn't be here today but for them. for a week the bbc was allowed inside the royal blackburn hospital. a rare opportunity to see the every day pressures. it's a fight today for the beds. by monday morning the medical wards in a&e are full. if that lady goes today, we can give that bed back. but in intensive care space must be found. so that gives one bed on the unit. 0perations are planned, and patients need to recover here. get that bed turned round as quickly as possible, cos that's going to be our only bed. we didn't get up this morning to think we are going to ruin somebody‘s life by telling them they can't have their operation. we are trying to juggle the beds. sometimes the staff laugh

at me because i walk up and down like this, and i go, "we're still spinning. we're still spinning." at some point today the plates won't crash and we will have enough beds for everybody. that is the same today, hopefully today we will have enough beds for everybody. right now this means patients are waiting. steven has elective surgery, for throat cancer. he has been told if no recovery beds are available... i'm in limbo really. ..it might be cancelled. hopefully it is today. 0bviously with the cancer you've got to get it out as fas as. to get it out as fast as. across the week, staff talked about the challenges of finding beds. in theatre, vascular surgeon robert gets a call from the a&e. i'm trying to sew quickly because i'm needed downstairs. on his mind, beds. you are having your hand on somebody‘s aorta, is what you do. but having to do that and have phone calls from someone else and someone else on the ward, and you have another patient

to do and you don't know if you have a bed, that stresses you. minutes later... he has come into hospital with pain in his abdomen and his blood pressure has gone down. he is on his way to the emergency department. ronald is 84 and has collapsed. another elderly patient with an acute complex condition. another family desperate. how important is is this place to you? lifeline. a lifeline, because her mother, ronald's wife, has been admitted on the same day. upstairs, waiting for an operation. betty has type two diabetes. she has been told she could lose her foot and with it her independence. so you are waiting for your operation and you are worried about your husband 7 well, that's it, yeah, because he is blind and deaf, he can't do anything for himself. you have to concentrate on your operation, haven't you? i can't concentrate on that until i know he is all right. i don't particularly want my foot gone and my leg, because i won't be able to stay at home.

i won't be able to walk. they will have to put me in a nursing home. i am not going in a nursing home without my husband. that's not going to happen, is it? they'll put us in two different places. but this is the reality of the nhs today. increasing demands, inside and outside the hospital. it is notjust bedding i am worried about. it is her husband. they have been with each other for 50 years, they co—depend on each other. it's just dreadful. if you lock at bed capacity, cost, management of patients with ulcers, it is enormous. type two diabetes. it is just — i can't even convey what a serious problem it is to society, the nhs, and us on the front line. and this is what the front line looks like. the davenports, waiting six hours in a&e. ready for the surgery. it seems to be the bed that's the problem.

0n the medical wards we have used every possible bed available. daily meetings to find beds. senior nurses, trying to move people through the hospital. females aren't moving off here. there are no female beds in the hospital at the minute. and some surgeons and nurses left upset and frustrated. every year we have to make savings, and most people are feeling like there is is not a lot of fat left on the bone, and we still don't have enough to do what we need to do. there is not enough staff. too many patients coming in and out. it's a number of things. we go home deflated and upset because we feel can't can't do any more than we are doing. the chief executive here wanted to show this pressure for beds, and the need for solutions, outside his hospital. we are trying to support staff, by looking at the bed capacity we have, by trying to work with partners to keep

people out of hospital, where they don't need to be in hospital. would you rather have another ward being built or a care home in the community? it has to be a care home in the community. you don't want to be in hospital if you don't need to be in hospital. i would far rather have capacity any the community, in terms of nursing homes and care homes. everyone here is treated, no—one is turned away. betty's operation was a success. she'll be moved into a care home this week. but not alone — she'll be reunited with her husband, ronald. and this is the moment a bed was found and steven got his cancer operation. what about that? couldn't have been timed better. are you ready? yeah. brilliant. life, inside the royal blackburn hospital. ed thomas, bbc news. the pressure exerted on the nhs by the demands of an ageing population was underlined today

by the latest analysis from the institute for fiscal studies. it said that although nhs funding by 2020 would be higher than it was before the financial crash, it would still fail to keep pace with population growth and ageing. 0ur health editor hugh pym is here with his analysis. well huw, does the nhs need a lot more money or could there be a more efficient use of resources, how much responsibility do we have as patients to avoid lifestyle related diseases? there are many questions in the search for long term solutions. health care is all about looking after the changing needs of the population. it's growing and people are living longer. there are big demographic changes. those are challenges facing the nhs in the nations of the uk, and health systems in leading economies around the world. new analysis from the institute for fiscal studies illustrates the problem.

health spending in england after allowing for inflation has gone up for the last few years. 0n current plans it carries on rising, though it tails off a bit in a couple of years' time. but spending per person adjusted for the changing age profile of the population has risen more slowly, and by 2020 it will actually have fallen back. and that'll leave a £1.3 billion shortfall on what's needed just to get back to where it was in 2010. health spending is rising but the population's getting bigger, quite a bit bigger, and the population's getting older. once you take account of the size and age of the population, actually, health spending per person, taking account of their age, will be a little bit lower by the end of this parliament than it was back in 2010, something we've never seen before. the challenge of an ageing population with more complex health needs was illustrated by head of nhs england simon stephens. he said a million more over 755 are being treated now than there were five years ago,

and in five years' time we'll be looking after another million. while health care spending in england rose by 9% since the 2009/10 year, more than in scotland, wales and northern ireland, adult social care was cut by 6.4% over that time, a bigger reduction than in other parts of the uk. that's affected the elderly population which puts more pressure on the nhs. but some argue it's about more than money, and their need to be than money, and there need to be new ways of working in health and social care as well as more efficient management in hospitals and across the nhs. there's huge variations in the way care is offered, in the amount of medical care offered for example, and in the outcomes of care for patients. so that is the area now to focus a lot more attention, and that is outwith any funding level. lifestyle related health conditions are another challenge. schemes like this help children learn about exercise and diet. a government minister today said

the uk was addicted to sugar with children among the highest consumers in europe. the cost of treating type two diabetes and related complications is nearly 10% of the nhs budget. so prevention as well as cure has to be part of the long term answer, or the nhs could come under such strain that the whole system becomes unsustainable. that's just a sketch of some of the challenges. there's lots more data, analysis and detail on our website bbc.co.uk/health. huw. mps at westminster will be given a vote on the government's brexit deal before it is finalised by the european union. the announcement was seen by some as a major concession until ministers pointed out that if mps rejected the terms there would be no re—negotiation and britain would then leave the european union without a deal. 0ur political correspondent carole walker has more details. how much say will parliament have as the government

negotiates our departure from the eu? 0rder. more than seven hours of debate began with what some saw as a concession from the government. i can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion on the final agreement to be approved by both houses of parliament before it is concluded, and we expect and intend that this will happen before the european parliament debates and votes on the final agreement. but theresa may's negotiations with other eu leaders are likely to be difficult and complex, and some mps are worried about her threat to leave without a deal if she doesn't get her way. what the house wants is the opportunity to send the government back to our eu partners to negotiate a deal if one has not been reached. i can't think of a greater signal of weakness than for this house to send the government back to the european union and to say we want to negotiate further. i think that that would be seized upon as a sign of weakness. so the choice for mps on any

deal will effectively be take it or leave it. if you just wait until everything's hands have been shaken with all the other europeans and then you come here then it means parliament is told, if you reject it, of course you have nothing. this is about this house having a genuine choice at some stage and looking at what the government has negotiated and then to say yes or no without that sword of damocles, that bad deal or no deal which was the threat from the prime minister. and some were concerned about the whole tone of the debate. i feel sometimes i'm sitting with colleagues who are like jihadis in their support for a hard brexit. no brexit is hard enough, be gone you evil europeans, we never want you to darken our doors against. the prime minister sought to persuade wavering mps

as they went to vote. in the end just seven tories rebelled on the key amendment. the ayes to the right, 293, the noes to the left, 326. a comfortable majority for the government and ministers hope that will curb potential rebellions in the lords. the government hopes to get its bill through the commons tomorrow night and the labour leaderjeremy corbyn has ordered his mps to back the legislation. but that's already resulted in three resignations from his shadow cabinet and there could be even more to come. more votes lie ahead but tonight the government is confident it will get the backing of parliament to begin the formal brexit negotiations as planned by the end of march. the scottish parliament has voted by 90 to 3a against plans to leave the european union. in last year's referendum a majority of scottish voters wanted to remain. the motion passed today had been put forward by the scottish government but the uk supreme court has already ruled that there is no legal requirement to consult the devolved

administrations before the brexit process can start. 0ur scotland editor sarah smith is at holyrood tonight. if this isn't legally binding, why does the first minister stage —— say it is one of the most important in the history of the scottish parliament? because even though the scottish parliament cannot delay or prevent the triggering of article 50, the snp still think it is highly significant because they believe it will now be harder for the significant because they believe it will now be harderfor the prime minister to ignore their demands for a different brexit settlement for scotla nd a different brexit settlement for scotland now that msps have voted 3-1 scotland now that msps have voted 3—1 against the government's plans. scottish government wants scotland to stay in the eu single market even after the rest of the uk leaves, but they becoming deeply frustrated because they think the primness —— the prime minister is not giving their proposal serious consideration. they repeated that today, and then labour and the

tories accused them of trying to stoke up grievances against westminster to further their agenda for scottish independence. mike russell said the clock is ticking and time is running out to try and agree a and time is running out to try and agreea uk and time is running out to try and agree a uk wide approach to the brexit negotiations before the end of march when the government figures article 50. sarah, thank you. lawyers acting for a royal marine who was given a life sentence for shooting dead an injured afghan insurgent have argued that he was suffering from a mental illness at the time. sergeant alexander blackman, described as a "superb" soldier, has started a new appeal against his conviction in 2013. a video recording of the shooting was shown in court today, as our defence correspondent jonathan beale reports. this video shows the moment an apache helicopter opens fire on two taliban insurgents. all filmed by one of the marines on patrol who wait and then cheer. yeah! sergeant blackman‘s defence team called it a tough

tour in an austere place. helmand, in their words "a breeding ground for mental health problems". we can only show what happened before the insurgent was killed. sergeant blackman and one of his patrol cautiously approached the wounded man. the court refused an application by the bbc to release the clips of the next moments, when he was dragged across the field and then shot. in 2013, a military court found alexander blackman, also known as marine a, guilty of murder. today, his wife arrived at court at the start of a fresh appeal from the wiltshire prison where he is serving an eight—year sentence. his new defence team argued to a panel ofjudges that he was mentally ill at the time. in court, blackman was described as very reserved, a john wayne—like a character

who downplayed his mental health problems at the time of his original trial. but giving evidence, three psychiatrists said he was in fact suffering from an adjustment disorder that impaired his ability to make rational judgments and that led to a loss of self—control when he shot the insurgent. but were these the words of a man who didn't fully comprehend what he was doing? and then this. the prosecution argued that blackman was in control of his actions, even making sure he couldn't be seen by a helicopter above before he fired the fatal shot. marine a's supporters will be back tomorrow to hear more evidence but his defence has to prove

that his symptoms were substantial and significant if he's to have his murder conviction quashed. the housing market in england is broken and needs fixing — that was the message from ministers today, as they announced new plans to meet a target of building a million new homes by 2020. the new strategy includes putting more pressure on councils to plan for local housing needs, and a new fund for first—time buyers. labour says the measures are "feeble beyond belief". from manchester, our home editor mark easton reports. this part of england could be seen as a test—bed for central government's housing ambitions. local councils recently produced a joint plan for the new homes they say must be delivered if greater manchester is to become the engine for a northern powerhouse. creating the jobs that will drive the growth will need, councils estimate, another 227,000 homes in the next 20 years. some on greater manchester's green belt.

the ink was barely dry on the draft plan before the protests began. demonstrations have been held across the region in recent weeks. at least nine of the local mps, both labour and tory, have come out against the proposals. today's white paper demands councils come up with realistic plans for delivering the houses their area needs. four this side and four that side. but these campaigners don't think greater manchester's plan is realistic in the slightest. the campaign to save bury‘s green belt is adamant the proposal to turn farmland into a new residential community is based on faulty logic. i know we need housing, but use the brownfield first. there's 11,000 empty homes in greater manchester — get them filled up and then start looking at greenfield. but those looking to restore greater manchester's industrial greatness say it can't grow unless it builds. we are not in the business of tearing up the green belt.

we believe we have looked at the brownfield land supply all across the conurbation, and that we cannot accommodate our growth without taking a small part of green land into account as part of the future development of the city region. and people like gerard saint—etienne, who struggles to pay his rent, never mind get on greater manchester's housing ladder, says a realistic plan from his point of view means an affordable home in a prosperous city. i'd like to see them put people before profit, so i'd like it to be more attainable for the working man, because it seems to be like the working man has been pushed aside. the government says affordability is at the heart of its strategy, both with homes for rent and to buy. but will developers deliver? we know that greater manchester needs around about 4,800 new affordable homes every year. in the past the area has been delivering around 2,000 so we know there is a big demand for affordable housing out there. as an industry, we are keen to meet that demand through appropriate development.

today's white paper promises radical action to mend england's broken housing market. but when it comes to a realistic plan to deliver enough affordable homes where people want to live, there are questions as to whether that can be done without some development on the green belt. now central government has decided to dodge that fight. but here in greater manchester its game on. they are going ballistic. they just won't accept it. in high lane near stockport, locals are preparing for battle, determined to halt plans for new houses in their village. people think you are nimbys, you know that? they can think whatever they want. we're not nimbys, we're not opposed to new housing, but we need it to be done in a balanced and structured way and using brownfield sites first. but you don't want it in your back yard. no, i'm not saying we don't want new houses in high lane, we do, but we don't want mass development. the fight over greater manchester's plan is destined to end up with the secretary of state in london. ministers today spoke of the need for radical action to deal

with the housing need. but are the tories ready to defy the passionate concerns of their natural supporters, trying to protect england's countryside? a brief look at some of the day's other news stories. a passenger has been arrested after a flight from pakistan was intercepted by rafjets and diverted from heathrow to sta nsted airport. the typhoon planes were scrambled following an anonymous phone call. police say the incident was not terror—related. at least 19 people have been killed in the afghan capital kabul after a suicide bomber targeted the supreme court building. this is the second attack on a government institution in under a month. a taliban spokesperson has said the group was responsible for the attack. donald trump's controversial choice for education secretary, betsy devos, has been confirmed in post by the us senate, but only after vice president mike pence had to cast a deciding vote.

it's the first time that a vice president has been required to break the deadlock over a us cabinet nomination. the commons speaker, john bercow, has been defending his position after saying that president trump shouldn't be allowed to speak to parliament on his state visit later this year. he's been criticised by a number of conservative mps, who say he's damaged the neutrality of his post. in france, the leader of the far—right front national, marine le pen, seems to gaining support in the latest opinion polls in the presidential race. she advocates strict controls on immigration and wants to redefine france's relationship with the eu. france's finance minister said today that marine le pen would never be installed in the elysee palace by the people of france, but her team says that's precisely the kind of elitist talk which boosts her support. 0ur correspondent lucy williamson has been to the old steel working town of hayange in north—eastern

france to test her appeal among working—class voters. hayange is not a place given to metaphors, but memories. the relics of its shuttered steel furnaces stand sentry to a new political age. communists and socialists used to run this place together. but unemployment here has soared by 75% in the past decade, and in its wake has come the front nationale. translation: i'm for the front nationale. i'm not afraid to say it. i'm not happy with today's politics. there's too much immigration. we give to everyone. that's why you chose brexit and i absolutely approve of that. in 2010, the socialists won almost 60% of the vote here in the regional run—off. five years later, it was down to 19%. votes for the fn over the same period more than doubled, putting them in the lead.

hayange now has an fm mayor, himself once a union man from the far left. the party presents itself as defending france's forgotten ones against crime, immigration and economic change. translation: the left betrayed it voters, the workers, the middle—class, the shop owners. there is mass immigration and we can't welcome the poor from across the world. we have to stop it and take care of our own. patrice was one of the fn's new converts, recruited as a deputy to the mayor. within a year he had left, disillusioned, he says, by its repressive, xenophobic views. he is voting far left in the presidential elections. translation: i was attracted because the other parties don't listen to the people. and i believed the fn was listing to me. i think marine le pen might have a chance because what is happening at a national level has already happened here.

fn voters vote, the others don't, because they are so disgusted with politics. during his presidential campaign five years ago, francois hollande came to this area and promised that the blast furnaces wouldn't close — they did. with faith in the socialist party already dwindling here, many voters moved their support to the political margins, to the far left and to the far right. 0ne relic that has survived here is the boxing club, a place for young men to teach themselves how to win and lose. in the ring, it's easy tojudge promises against performance. in politics, it's often performance that loses elections, and promises that win. the rise of the robot and the impact of automation on human workers is fast becoming one of the biggest challenges for policy—makers. one report this week warned that nearly a quarter of a million public sector workers could be replaced

by robots or computers over the next 15 years. our technology correspondent rory cellan—jones gained exclusive access to one firm where the robots are doing more and more. in a warehouse in hatfield, a very complex operation is under way, assembling 0cado customer orders from 50,000 potential items. it still requires plenty of people but if the online supermarket is to make money from something shoppers used to do themselves, this must get ever more automated. that's why there's a robotics lab in the corner of the warehouse. this robot arm designed to pick up fruit without damaging it is one of their creations, though it is some years away from being put to work. but in another warehouse in andover, 0cado says the future is already here. swarms of robots move across a grid, collaborating to collect groceries from crates beneath them. it's a huge investment but the firm says there's no alternative. if the uk is to remain competitive on the world stage,

then there is no option but to invest in not only automation but in this increasing move towards robotics because that is the only way we will be competitive. there is no choice. all kinds of businesses that want to prosper over the next decade are going to have to use artificial intelligence and automation to make themselves more efficient. the question is just how many people are going to see theirjobs taken by robots and what's going to happen to them. at london science museum, a new exhibition traces the history of robots and shows how they are now encroaching on tasks once restricted to humans. 0ne academic has a startling forecast. 35% of current uk employment is at high risk of being replaced by robots or similar technology by the year 2030. truck drivers, taxi drivers, processing of things like invoices. but there's a more optimistic view, that ourjobs are becoming more

creative and complex and we will be able to keep ahead of the robots. some of the best skills you can have are adaptability, ability to switch between tasks, emotional intelligence and the ability to deal with change. those kind of things should protect our children for the labour market of tomorrow, whichever direction the robots take. the lesson of the past is that new technology usually creates more jobs than it destroys, but along the way a lot of people can end up losing out. newsnight is coming up on bbc two. here's emily. not everyone gets rent—free accommodation in a prime central london location, a skip away from work. join us for a newsnight dedicated to housing. how bad is the problem? is there a real solution? join me now on bbc two.