tv Talking Business BBC News February 25, 2017 8:30pm-9:01pm GMT
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so this could be coming to a street near you soon. glad they enjoyed it. let's see what the weather is doing. we have breaking news on the weather front and storm euan is due to arrive tomorrow. it has been named by the irish met service. we have wet and windy weather across england and wales. movie eastwards. by the end of the night i think it will have cleared. breaks in the cloud but the leading edge of storm euan pushing it. this first area of wind and rain is not up to too much in terms of speed but then we see strong winds pushing into the irish sea. this is the storm, gusts up to
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60 mph. in some places up to 70 mph. down on what we saw with storm doris the other day which got close to 100 mph. it stays blustery on monday. a lot of showers around. maybe some snow over the hills and it will feel colder. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines at 8.30pm: labour's deputy leader tom watson says now is not the time for a leadership contest, but warns the party must do better at winning over voters. media organisations have reacted angrily after several — including the bbc, cnn and the new york times — were barred from a press briefing at the white house. police in the german city of heidelberg have shot and injured a man after he drove a car into a pedestrian area, injuring three people.
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three men have appeared in court on slavery charges after the discovery of a cannabis factory at a disused nuclear bunker in wiltshire. now on bbc news it's time for talking business. 60 countries, 65% of the global population, and one third of the world's gdp. one belt one road is china's ambitious infrastructure project built around ancient trading routes. but it is also expensive and controversial. china says it is going to start a new age of inclusive growth for the world. but others are worried that beijing will use these economic investments to tilt the global balance of power in its favour. so, will the new silk road reshape global trade or is this just the beginning of china's great game? welcome to talking business.
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i'm karishma vaswani. china's new silk road is the brainchild of president xijinping. it builds on ancient eurasian trading routes but the scale of his new vision is nothing short of astounding. so, let's take a look atjust what it is. it is made up of two main trading corridors, one overland called the silk road economic belt, and the other by sea, known as the maritime silk road. the idea to build roads, railways, ports, and create a financial is structure and free trade zones all along these routes. there is also a key parallel project, the china pakistan economic corridor. you can see the port, water, right over here. it is not onlyjust direct maritime routes into africa
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and the middle east but it also potentially gives china control over some 40% of the world's energy supplies. now, a big part of it is also creating faster more direct routes between china and europe. and building a free trade zones and commercial infrastructure along the way, like in khorgos, along the border with kazakhstan. and, lastly, here in south—east asia, china is funding a railway and port project in malaysia, dams in myanmar, and a high—speed bullet train in indonesia, singapore, and thailand. so, let's get to it. the two big questions really are, is it going to take off? and is china's big plan really as in official and benign as its supporters like to say it is? well, we've got a great panel of expertsjoining us for this discussion today. peter chan is professor at the university of malaya's institute of china studies. jonathan woetzel is director of the mckinsey global institute
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and instrumental in building mckinsey‘s china practice since 1985. and nina yang is ascendas—singbridge's ceo for sustainable urban development with more than 25 years of urban planning and building development. thank you all forjoining us for this discussion on the one belt one road initiative. to begin with, it is a massive project, as we havejust been talking about. jonathan, if you look at historically where many asian companies have been able to get their financing, asian countries for infrastructure projects, it has been the multilateral western institutions that have done this. with one belt one road, it will be chinese dominated, the chinese lead plan, or a multilateral institution that will end up funding a lot of these projects. well, actually, i think most of the funding will be by national finance so sovereign funds of the country, but, yes,
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there will be some investments that come from china or through the multilaterals like the new development bank or funds that have been set up. i think that it is less important, actually, than the actual technology that is being used. what we see now is chinese companies globalising with one belt one road, say you have large construction groups that the state developers but also the small, private during companies, that is really the bottom line inpact, an avenue, if you will, for chinese companies to go global. peter, i want to bring you into the discussion now, and talk about what this means for the region. i know we have said that asia has always traded within the region but china will have a much bigger presence, as a result of one belt one road. indeed, china's one belt one road is, to me, the coming—of—age of china as a full—fledged superpower.
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if not regional, it is a global superpower. it is the manifestation of chinese ambition, not just as an economic superpower but also eventually cultural, geopolitical, and also a military regional power. so, the impact, but consequences for us smaller nations in asia is quite significant. i think the important component of one belt one road is this idea of connectivity. and connectivity takes a lot of money to create. physical infrastructure is the most important thing. without this physical infrastructure connectivity, the one belt one road will go back to the seventh century, moving by ship, you know. so, who is going to invest in this one belt one road, connectivity building up the infrastructure chat? i would say that a lot of countries along this one belt one road in the past do not have that singular ability to pull
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this thing together, and with this initiative, there is suddenly a reason for all these companies and countries to come together, and a lot more viability for their infrastructure project and a lot of viability for funding to come in to build this infrastructure. so, aside from china trying to assert its influence which is often reported that way, i think that from a is this point of view, there is a reason now for city is, full countries along that one belt one road to have commercial viability for trade to happen and for business exchanges to happen. peter, can you try to help explain why there is this suspicion in countries like malaysia, where you are from, certainly across the region, while many of the nations are welcoming of this, there is still a bit of reluctance and almost antagonism
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about it as well. let me begin by saying that we do need chinese investment, we do need chinese leadership, we do need that kind of direct investment and that is coming into malaysia to generate the activity the country needs. having said that, there is an aspect of the chinese entrepreneurship that is on a hard edge side. it has this image problem of being unethical and little bit predatory, and doesn't really have real transfer of technology, downstream benefits for the local industry. so, on that score, china really needs to work on correcting those things. but the bigger picture, the net benefit is there, we do need chinese investment, but there are some significant changes that china needs to make along the way. jonathan, on the point of transfer of technology, i know that you work very closely with the government in china on the one belt one road initiative. what would you say to that? that when china goes in to build a massive infrastructure project, there is no transfer limited
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transfer of technology? i think china has learned from some of those experiences where the approach was let's get 10,000 chinese workers to fly over and build a bridge. itjust became very painful and expensive. so, actually, if you are a chinese company in kenya or ethiopian now, you are really going to think hard about how many chinese people you want to bring with you because everyone you bring costs you four or five times what the equivalent is in the local workforce. so, there is a big shift from the chinese mindset to how to be more effective at creating a local presence, getting local managers trained. the technology part is a different challenge. it is the same problem that western companies faced in china when they came to china, now chinese companies faced the same thing going to developing countries, which is that the supply infrastructure is in there. the technology is backwards.
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so, one has to start from scratch. and that is a lot of work and a lot of investment. china is looking for partners, local partners, looking for other months, but also looking for private sector companies that can work with them to build a supply chain. we are the going to move the chat on to where the money for this ambitious project is going to come from next. to all intents and purposes, china is the sole funder of one belt one road projects at the moment, but that can't go on for ever. at some point, we will have to look at where the money to make this whole project a reality is going to come from. and part of the question people are asking now is, will the money come, especially from private investors and private capital? we will talk about that in a moment, but for now let's take a small break with a light—hearted look at this topic with our comedy consultant colm o'regan. chinese chinese foreign direct investment in europe, but how best to represent chinese money abroad without resorting to cliche? chinatown, really? we can do better than that. now, this is more like it.
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nothing says chinese money abroad more eloquently than at giant distribution centre on the edge of a british city. this is part of airport city being built on the edge of manchester, with the aid of chinese money. the investment made by china may be less visible but it is growing and it is becoming strategically significant in the global economy. there has been a huge increase in foreign direct investment from china into europe. last year, it was up 90%. that has reached nearly 46 billion in europe. the chinese money flowing into europe is growing fast, and while britain and germany are at the forefront as recipients of that money, we irish are no slouches ourselves. we get the fifth largest slice of the chinese fti pie. private investors in china now represent over three quarters of the total investment into europe.
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it reflects a shift over the last year or two to away from investment by the big state—owned enterprises towards investors by private sector companies in china. most obviously, we have had the investment in nuclear from china, but also distribution centres in manchester, and other utilities sectors, and that will continue. and, plus, the future, will we become more aware of chinese investment in the real economy or will it remain tucked away in warehouses on the edge of town? china's model of investment overseas has shifted a lot over the last five years. especially after donald trump's collection, i think the focus will move from the united states to europe, especially to the uk because china sees the uk and find strategic assets that china wants to acquire, such as intellectual property, such as advanced manufacturing techniques, such as a way of
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conducting business. so, those will be the things that china will have great interest to invest in the uk for. then, of course, there is the chinese investment in football clubs and football players, or the giant waste of money, depending on your point of view. china is more broadly integrated now into the global economy, and that is why the investment, particularly in europe and in the us is turning to world—class businesses. and, of course, that most potent symbol of integration to the global economy, english football league clubs. take the example of the northern powerhouse. the fourth quarter of 2015 alone, there is over {2.3 billion of investment from china and much of that, 80% of that, actually, has gone to manchester. and this has been spent on mostly china, such as the construction of the new airport project. right, that's just about wraps up our whistle top tour of chinese investment in europe, and we didn't even have to resort to any lazy stereotypes.
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now, that is what i call a great wall. sorry. well, if you enjoyed that, you can find more on our website. now, actor the topic at hand, china's one belt one road. the chinese and has pledged $1 trillion to the project and has set up the asian infrastructure investment aank, the aiib, to help fund roads, ports, and highways. but china can't do this alone, so where will the money come from? our panel of experts today are alexander capri, who is currently senior fellow at the national university of singapore business schools, jonathan woetzel from mckinsey, and nina yang from ascendas—singbridge. thank you again forjoining us for this discussion. let's kick up on the point of financing. alex, what is your take on this? will western corporate jump in? well, look, deployment of capital
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is a very important issue here. and transparency, good governance, there is a need for building in that area, and i think that is where western companies can come in, not just the consultancy firms, not just the accountancy firms, but even the financial intermediaries can come in, the law firms can come in and assist in that capacity building. i think the other part of the capacity building has to do with the it. so, when we think about one belt one road, we think about roads and bridges and so forth, but we actually need to be looking at the soft infrastructure that has to go in with that. and that is why you have companies like ali baba building these very impressive economist platforms and global trade platforms working with a lot of open source firms, a lot of it firms are coming in and maybe assisting in that area. so, the capacity building will not happen without world leading western companies.
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jonathan, i know you have done a lot of work with the chinese government, and as well with a lot of these digital firms that are working on the it structure, as alex was just mentioning. is china more open to this kind of knowledge transfer, if you will? absolutely. one belt one road is an open source that form, it is available, but you have to show up. what china is doing now is a big call on all the companies and all the banks, and saying, i would like to be there but there is this problem here or there is this risk over there. china is saying, we are going to be there. it is going to happen. now, you can be part of it, but you have to to be part of it, you have to engage. it is open source but people have to invest, they have to commit.
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nina, the suspicion that we were discussing earlier, amongst some parties, will that be a deterrent for private firms to invest? i think there is an open invitation for all companies to come along because they recognise that there is a lack of capability across the region and also in chinese firms. it is an open invitation to come to china. i think the wall street journal earlier reported that us companies are also banking on this. even countries like pakistan. so, suspicions aside, i think for companies and corporations, you have to get engaged, and this is the best time to be engaged. alex, when companies look at engaging with one belt one road, one of the issues you talked about is regulation. how did they manage navigate around this area which hasn't been regulated? i think a very interesting example is dhl. if you look at what dhl is doing
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on the belt, and think about it, you think about trade facilitation, how many countries district have to pass through from china all the way to turkey and then into europe? it is got to go through all the 'stan countries, right? it is got to go through iran, it has got to go through turkey, as i mentioned. now, one would think that you would have a lack of uniformity in the application of customs procedures, which is the case. but dhl has been very successful in using technology, pre—clearance, in other words, transmitting customs related information in advance of the freight coming through. they have been able to whisk that cargo through, apart from having to change trains. but imagine that with high—speed rail going all the way, and having pre—clearance and electronic platforms
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taking care of customs, i think it is going to be fairly seamless, and i think dhl is a very good example of that. jonathan, the risk to china, though, if it ends up loaning billions of dollars worth of investments to countries all projects that aren't able to make a profit, or aren't able to pay them act? that is going to be a major problem. the infrastructure, in and of itself, does not actually do much for you. what matters is economic activities. the chinese government and chinese companies are all very focused on how to create more economic activity. how do we make it more productive? and who is going to do that with us? that is the opportunity now for western countries. and $1 trillion sounds like a big number, but in the infrastructure business, not so much. actually, emerging asian needs about $20 trillion for the next 15 years. most of that money is go to have to come out of those asian and african and middle eastern countries themselves. they are going to be the ones investing. china doesn't want to be
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seen as a free lunch. there is no incentive then for people to step up their game, and that is the big bet for one belt one road. will those countries step up? will they become true partners to china and the rest of the world? well, that leaves us bury nicely to the way forward. the discussion about whether or not this week bet will act to repay off. do you think that it will, nina? i think there are at least four areas that we can talk about. the first is this physical infrastructure, logistics, that is one area to look at. and that one is a reasonably commercial decision. and the second area will be trade that became possible because of the connectivity. the third area will be exchanged at people, community level, in terms of education exchanges, cultural exchanges, very little has been reported.
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there are tonnes of collaborations being spoken about and being followed through, exchanges that can happen at community level. and the last area is what we spoke about, between governments and specifically on capability building and exchanges in terms of government to have it, learning from each other, and helping each other. for instant, there is a project called the connectivity initiative, it is about exchanges in all these for areas, specifically leading from logistics aviation and government to government exchanges in terms of capability building. so, it is a much broader kind of benefit that we can come up with. it is too narrow to define
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whether there will be a commercial payback in any one of these aspects. and this is how we will look at the one belt one road. and being in asia for so many years and having done business in china, i think it is an invitation for everybody to jump on the bandwagon and find a way out. there are all these challenges, but there are also potential that can come out of it. what is your take, alex? i would agree. i think there is great potential. there are a couple of things we need to keep our eyes on. one is geopolitics, of course. everybody was breathing a sigh of relief last week when donald trump announced he was going to recognise the one china policy. i think collectively, the whole region breathed a sigh of relief. it will be a gradual thing. this is not a big bang, this is a gradual development. one thing we didn't talk about is the development of tourism. i think tourism is another possibility along the whole
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belt and along the road. hotels, and the tourist industry, in general. i think, overall, even if the belt and the road don't overlap to their full potential, even if we get a portion of it and, i still think it was a great deal for western companies and for asian companies. jonathan, on that point of the potential for one belt one road, what do you take? winston churchill said, i am an optimist, there doesn't seem to be much point in being anything else. so, i am an optimist. but that said, it is a long—term challenge. this is 60% of the world's population that has about 30% of its gdp. those two numbers tell the story. how do you get 60% of the population to have 60% of the world's gdp? that is not going to happen tomorrow, but i believe it will happen. excellent. thank you very much to all of you for thejoining us for this discussion on the one belt one road initiative.
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that is it for this season of talking business. i'm karishma vaswani in singapore. thank you so much forjoining us throughout all of our shows. we have enjoyed bringing them to you. some breaking news and the weather front. macro to on the other side of the atlantic is heading this way. it will not be as powerful as storm doris. we are expecting to see some pretty lively winds on our shores. cloud across england and wales, there is a fair bit of rain moving southwards with showers following behind in the far north and west. by the end of the night, we will see the end of the night, we will see the back of the rain in the south—eastern corner. with the south—westerly breeze, it is relatively mild. into the morning, it will. quite wet and windy for much of scotland, some snow over higherground. rain will
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much of scotland, some snow over higher ground. rain will wish through northern ireland. try for at least a time. further east, a reasonable start of the day, some sunshine and broken cloud. relatively mild. further west, we've got beginning cloud, the rain is beginning to set in and the winds are picking up. it is the arrival of storm ewan which will bring impacts to the islands. in the irish sea, we see some strong winds developing, gusts of up to 70 miles an hour in a few places and that will be whether main impact of storm ewan is, through the irish sea and into scotla nd through the irish sea and into scotland later on. largely dry the further east you go. england playing italy on sunday at twickenham. a fair bit of cloud, it should stay dry with temperatures in double figures. monday, a windy day across the board. rain moving eastwards
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through the morning, followed by sunshine and showers, the showers will be heavy with the hell and thunder. on monday, colder pretty much across the board. a similar idea on tuesday and further frequent showers on tuesday. some heavy with hailand showers on tuesday. some heavy with hail and thunder and the cold air sticks around until the bill of the week. we are expecting much lower daytime and night—time temperatures and there will be a top —— touch of frost. all the details about storm ewa n frost. all the details about storm ewan will be available online. hello. i'm alpa patel with bbc world news. our top stories. the indian embassy in washington has expressed deep concern over the killing of an indian in kansas in what is believed to be a racially motivated attack. as a vigil is held
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for victim is, his wife said they had grown anxious about racial hatred after the election of donald trump. ijust could not sleep. i was talking and then i was like, he will be safe in this country. talking and then i was like, he will be safe in this countrylj talking and then i was like, he will be safe in this country. i am so worried. the exodus of civilians from western mosul — as iraqi troops push deeper into territory held by islamic state also coming up, the woman linked to the murder of kimjong—nam —
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