tv Dateline London BBC News February 26, 2017 11:30am-12:01pm GMT
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hello, this is bbc news. the headlines at 11.303m. jeremy corbyn has said he accepts some responsibility for defeat in the copeland by—election — but that he is determined to finish the job he was elected to do as leader. he's due to speak later today. the conservative former deputy prime minister, lord heseltine, has said he will rebel against the government over brexit — when the lords vote on article 50 — the bill giving theresa may the authority to start negotiations to leave the eu. police in malaysia have declared kuala lumpur airport — where the half—brother of north korea's leader was killed with a nerve agent 12 days ago — to be safe. and preparations are nearly complete, as hollywood prepares to host the oscars. la la land is expecting to be the big winner of night, with m nominations. now on bbc news, dateline london. hello and welcome
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to dateline london. the state we're in — is there a vacuum at the heart of british politics? how far does the future of the european union rest on the next president of france? and,the fight against the group calling itself islamic state. who will be doing the fighting? my guests today are agnes poirier, who is uk editor of france's marianne, stryker mcguire of bloomberg markets, mina al oraibi, the arab affairs commentator, and ned temko, who is an author and journalist. the tradition in britain is for opposition parties to do well in by—elections since they can often be used as a protest vote against the sitting government. this week, the conservatives actually won a seat in copeland held by labour for several generations, and ukip‘s leader lost in the seat his party claimed was britain's brexit capital — stoke.
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as we move towards brexit, we clearly have a government. do we have anything which looks like an opposition? perhaps the scottish national party? yes, perhaps the unelected house of lords. the short answer, do we have an opposition in the house of commons? absolutely not. you mentioned by—elections. opposition parties have work hard to lose a by—election against a sitting government. it happened once in the early 1980s, but labour was splitting at the time. it went so far to the left that it became serially unelectable, but the last real loss by an opposition party was in the 1960s. the last time labour lost that particular seat was in the 19305, so it's a huge deal. it's hard to see howjeremy corbyn, the labour party leader, can recover, not so muchjust
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from the by—election but from the fact that clearly the opinion polls, by—elections and everything shows, that a critical mass of even labour voters don't see him as prime ministerial, and that's difficult. and yet the reaction has been that they lost but it could have been lost, and steady as she goes, it's all fine. what's interesting is that labour has its own opposition and the reason we had this by—election is that you had two front benchers resigning. it's interesting because we are seeing this serious opposition to jeremy corbyn and yet there's real denial amongst those who support him and say he can carry on. of course, we have ukip and lib dems vying for who is the third party and still third parties here don't impact the big picture politics. but we are seeing the competition between them who are getting
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a smaller size of the electorate but they are clearly defined and we know what they stand for. interestingly, both are very much focused on brexit and the eu. one completely for it and one completely against it. clear in both cases. absolutely. but for the conservatives and labour, it is a constituency that was labour for 80—odd years because people felt the mp could look out for them in an area that ordinarily labour looks out for them. what is the defining feature of both parties? it's hard to see at the moment. the lib dems and ukip are ideologically opposed but there are also differences elsewhere. the lib dems are gaining support. anecdotally you hear it a lot largely because of what's going on. ukip is in serious trouble, really serious trouble.
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paul nuttall, their leader, fought a pretty disastrous campaign in a seat he clearly thought they should win and so did party workers because they put in a lot of effort but the party was shambolic. it must have been cringe—making to have been around him when all this was going on. it was appalling. he's another leader who presumably will survive just because they've had such trouble finding a successor. maybe he and jeremy corbyn could swap? where do you see this? you could say the conservatives have their opposition within their own ranks also, although it is more quiet and subtle than it has been in the labour party. as we say in france, theresa may has a boulevard in front of her, no opposition. when you listen to her, she is now the workers' party. she said this weekend
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we are the party of the workers. but you tend to believe her and that is to her credit on that level. it is the nuclear industry that did it, to her credit. but that is also happening in france because there's no opposition. the french left is in disarray in the same way as it is here. not to mention the american left. some things must or something had to give and that is the rise of the centrist party, the split of labour and the socialist party in france. something will happen because it cannot go on like this. the reason she has a boulevard now is that she can go on sometimes inanely saying brexit means brexit because it hasn't happened yet. the other shoe that has yet to drop is what happens
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when article 50 is triggered, when some of the real—life effects begin to take hold? that is when, particularly inside the tory party, it will be worth watching. you need somebody to take advantage of that, don't you? you do and she may start considering an early election now because the momentum that she has at the moment, she won't keep when article 50 is triggered, we assume. so now‘s the time to consider calling an early election. when could you ever say that a conservative prime minister's popularity grows the further north you go until you reach scotland? that is remarkable. copeland is the north and labour and the north... but do you think that, into this vacuum, tony blair could come back? david miliband? a good question because, of course, tony blair is the man
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that the british love to hate but he was the only sensical voice. that was a week ago when he talked about europe. not everybody thinks that, i should say. even people who hate him could think, i agree with every word. he was clear. he made the broader argument that it isn't just about brexit. in other words, we see trump and brexit and he was arguing for a reconstitution of the centre—left or centre—right coalition that could steer a reasonable path. it's not him coming back. for example, david miliband. someone who has been in british politics, but he was associated with or tarnished by the tony blair years, and that's the challenge.
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we know the stories about his brother. he was part of the blair thing. and that's never going to go away but the memories will become more fuzzy. it will become an asset at some point, i'm sure of that. he was a relatively independent memberof new labour in that he started as a policy adviser and he always had a mind of its own. the question is, does he have the real ambition because at key junctures during the mess that was gordon brown versus tony blair, there was an opportunity and even an expectation among some on the blair side of the party that david miliband would seize the crown. he always didn't quite want to do it. i think he has a certain sense of decency, actually. that will never work! he's not cut—throat enough. he really extracted himself out of that whole rivalry with his brother and so forth and there's a reason he's never ruled it out.
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i spoke with him a few months ago briefly and asked if he would come back. he said, the time is not really right, but you never know. yesterday he said, never say never. but the thing is, several times he's had an opportunity to go for it, and he hasn't. so the question is, has he acquired the sort of backbone that you need to really push it to the next level? especially since the party is in much worse shape than when he ran for leader. since france and germany have together been the motors of the european union, elections in both countries this year will define the future of the eu at its most difficult period, with britain obviously determined to leave. if, in france, marine le pen wins, is the euro, and possibly the eu, finished? if she wins, she will have a vote on the euro. she won't win.
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i was trying to get beyond that. i might have to eat my words in may, but we have two rounds, ok? that's the big difference with the brexit vote. she will come first in the first round and then she will most probably lose at the second round. opposite emmanuel macron or opposite fillon. ok, she has the slightest chance of becoming the next president of france if the turnout is really low, which would be historic because it's always high. if it is francois fillon against marine le pen, because he is so damaged, and people don't bother to go and vote, she has some chance. there are corruption allegations.
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i know we are not allowed to mention... the president of the united states. we took a vow not to mention him. but i wonder whether the you—know—who effect will galvanise french voters to realise, do we want that or the equivalent? and whether turnout will be larger. she's had quite a good week, hasn't she? this headscarf business... appealing to the kind of electoriate she wishes to appeal to, she couldn't have asked for something better in secular france. that's correct, it's incredible though, because she also has financial scandals at her door, with exactly the same allegations from brussels, the way she uses her budget to actually hire people, and it's been quite dodgy and brussels is launching enquiries against her.
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what you make of that? in terms of her electorate, she did a cleverjob in refusing to wear a headscarf. absolutely and you feel for the lebanese. whoever is president of france, they have to work with her so they had to receive her although it was complicated for muslim lebanese local factions. but regardless what happens in the election, if she doesn't win in france, then the eu is safe? that has huge problems. even if she doesn't get in, the eu will not be able to pull out from this as we have the greek crisis, we have real troubles in italy, and we don't know what will happen with issues against immigration. germany? although of course, the election of the new president gave many people some hope of the sort of stature coming in
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as president and the stature of the germans at the moment. it looks good but we will have to wait and see. how are the leaders of europe working together to face off what brexit will mean for the union when they are also busy with their domestic elections? there's yet another layer to it, because you now have the external factors of what's happening in the united states and russia, which are really causing the eu, that old spirit that created the eu in the first place. we'd better be in this together. it's really hard to imagine the eu falling apart. it's not hard to imagine the euro falling apart, is it? to go back to your question, let's imagine marine le pen becomes france's next president. she is very astute because she's not going to hold a referendum about
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belonging to the european union, because the french feel too much european to vote, to go for that. but what she will do is a referendum on the euro, and she's likely to win it. it's very unpopular in france? unpopular enough to tilt it to 51%. that would be the end. if it was on the euro in a number of european countries with greece being a possible example, germany, who knows? it's a false referendum because it is a kind of brexit referendum in the sense that if you have widespread discontent and people can think they can blame economic malaise on the euro and that will fix it, then of course they will vote against it. but that won't fix it. then you have to have politicians brave enough
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to say that, but that's rare. where does this leave britain? you could say that, in voting for brexit, the british have decided they will, at some point and whatever the difficulties ahead, leave a union which is failing and which many of the ordinary citizens know it's failing, even in countries very strongly in favour of the eu? it's a complicated because to the extent the eu does fail, and i agree that one of the ironies is there are now forces that are bringing it closer together again, one of the reasons will be brexit. in other words, this big building block that is british membership, they're going to yank out. and that's an obvious challenge to the eu as an organisation. it's a self—fulfilling prophecy, in a way. the irony i still can't get over is that even though the remain campaign was lousy at getting the point across, britain, of allthe eu member states, had a charmed existence as it wasn't
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a member of the euro and opted out of everything it didn't like, it had a beneficial trading realtionship with this bloc. it's not an encouragement to those who think brexit is a mistake, but it's easy to see a scenario where both sides suffer equally. after past humiliations at the hands of the group called islamic state, iraqi government forces have begun to reverse the tide in mosul and elsewhere. while in syria, is is squeezed between government forces and kurdish militias. how much support should the united states, britain and others give, and to whom? in iraq, the iraqi army has been retrained and seems to have a new spirit. it's also important to remember that when mosul fell to isis, it was because army generals were given the order to withdraw. there is a myth now that the army was in disarray, they've retrained,
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and two and a half years later, they've come back. yes, there has been training and effort but at the heart of it is the political decision. the political decision to leave mosul to isis broke something significant in iraq. the losses and huge humanitarian suffering. the mosaic in terms of different ethnicities and religions who live together well, at the moment that will need to be reconstructed. the iraqi army going back is our hope and an opportunity to try to rebuild that and having belief in the iraqi state. having said that, on their heels are some of the mobilisation units which are the volunteer forces that were put together to fight isis who are sectarian in large part, but not all of them. how iraq will figure out dealing with all of these groups when isis
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is defeated is hugely significant because if we have groups who are armed who some want to turn into political parties, like hezbollah in lebanon, then that could spell a disastrous period for iraq going forward. then you have the coalition led by the united states with support from some arab countries and britain and that's significant because then we have to say, ideologically, fighting isis, but iran is saying, we are part of the coalition. in reality, they support some of the sectarian groups that leads to this complication. the point i am trying to make is, let's not take it so clear that isis is bad and everyone else is good. unfortunately, there are those in power in washington and other places who think it could be pushed that much.
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however, part of the trump administration is well aware of this and if there is any... including the new national security adviser, who is very smart. they know iraq inherently well. syria is different. the fact that iraq has used its air force to strike inside of syria is a huge development. baghdad, moscow, teheran, damascus together came and agreed on that strike. i agree with her! i know you do. the point for those of us outside is, however it is dressed up, by some political leaders on different sides of the atlantic, there are no good guys and bad guys. in syria what we are seeing is that you now have al-qaeda—related groups pushing out some of the so—called moderate opposition, and i will make one prediction here.
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the person we can't talk about, yesterday, president trump i think said that the american military was going to obliterate isis. i do predict he will claim to have obliterated isis, but it's no easier than it was six months ago. in some ways, it's more complicated because it requires an engagement that he is very wary of. luckily, as you say, people like the new national security adviser not only has knowledge of the middle east but has a nuanced knowledge of it, so it's interesting that he, unlike trump, says, don't refer to islamic terrorism. separate those. this is not islam. it was an interesting point.
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the kurds are doing a lot of fighting, so give guns to the kurds? hold on, turkey is a nato ally and doesn't like it, so it's complicated. it is, and also it's wonderful to hear about isis losing battles and losing ground, but you hear about them using drones and making a lot of casualties on the ground. also, at the same time, you know they are going to concentrate their intelligence in spreading terror in europe. this is what they are very good at doing. it doesn't take many people to be able to cause a great deal of damage, as we know in france. and in belgium, some vulnerabilities exist with fighters who have dual nationality, for existence. recently there were those centres, and you have them in the uk, of de—radicalisation. in france, there were
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reports it didn't work. war is also in the mind. you can't declare victory on that. the idea that anything could happen quickly is out of the question. there is no short—term. you just take iraq, and you've had the iran—iraq war. you had the revolution. you had that war and the first gulf war, the invasion in 2003. now it's 2017. this is not going to be solved overnight. the first gulf war was in 1991. exactly. it's a generation. and you have two generations there. there are 140,000 children inside mosul and in western mosul they are under siege. the idea that no food or medical substance is coming in... unless they are given something
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to look forward to and they feel the world has looked out for them, what impact will it have on these people? because of the risks from iran as seen in saudi arabia and elsewhere, there is a new diplomacy going on and it's interesting. donald trump has reflected that, in some ways. very significantly, the saudi foreign minister visited baghdad, and that development is of huge consequences for intra—arab relations, but there have been some developments. with the new lebanese government and the fact the lebanese president who is seen as an ally of iran is seen in all the arab capitals. there are overtures to try to bring back some arab countries who felt that iran was a better partner and they're trying to change that. the other iraq was a bulwark against iran is how it was seen in many countries.
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and over a million people died in the iran—iraq war. iraqis always paid the highest price. benjamin netanyahu is a player, too? he would like to be. i think he overstates, as does trump, the likelihood that any arab coalition or saudi government is going to meaningfully invite israel or the us into this kind of grand coalition if there is no at least attempt at progress to rein in settlements, get some sort of political resolution in the israeli—palestinian issue. that's still a toxic issue. no arab leader will abandon the palestinians, will they? that part of american diplomacy has got very interesting this past week. the comments of the national security adviser and the sophistication of them was interesting. yes, and what you don't know is, the dynamics of the executive branch
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of government are crazy. you don't know from day to day who is really running things and how it's being run. yes, there are some smart people, some supposedly strong people who have not been politically deeply tied to trump, like tillerson, the secretary of state. this reminds me so much of back in 2002 and 2003, the state department seems to be totally sidelined. that's it, i'm afraid. an almost trump—free zone today! you can comment on the programme on twitter and engage with our guests. we will be back next week at the same time. make a date with dateline london. goodbye. hello there. plenty going on with
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oui’ hello there. plenty going on with our weather over the next couple of days. we will see some sunny spells in eastern areas later today but further west, things turning cloudy, wet and windy. some heavy bursts through northern ireland, scotland and northern england and wales. there could be 60 mph gusts for some coasts. all the while towards the south—east, some limited brightness. afairamount of south—east, some limited brightness. a fair amount of cloud. it will stay mild. tonight a a fair amount of cloud. it will stay mild. tonighta band a fair amount of cloud. it will stay mild. tonight a band of a fair amount of cloud. it will stay mild. tonighta band of rain a fair amount of cloud. it will stay mild. tonight a band of rain pushes across england and wales. rain and snow moving across scotland. we could see 70 mile—per—hour gusts in the far north of scotland. lots of showers packing in tomorrow morning. there is a risk of icy stretches in
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the north first thing. some hefty showers tomorrow. some hail, thunder, sleet and snow. wintry over high ground. even at low levels. feeling colder than it has done recently. this is bbc news. the headlines at midday... jeremy corbyn has said he takes a share of responsibility for his party's defeat to the conservatives in the copeland by—election but that he remains determined to stay in hisjob. constant attacks on the leadership. constant leadership elections. co nsta nt constant divisions don't attack the issues that would allow us to project an alternative vision. the conservative former deputy prime minister, lord heseltine, has said he will rebel against the government when the house of lords votes on the bill giving theresa may the authority to trigger brexit. police in malaysia have declared kuala lumpur airport, where the half brother of north korea's leader
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