says. the easy populist sound bites we got in the referendum campaign since europe exports more to us, they are bound to do a trade deal, is simplistic in the extreme. we actually exported 12% of our gdp to europe and they on average export 4% of the gdp to us. there is no doubt what is happening between the two andi what is happening between the two and i think those realities are becoming clearer and i would not charge by colleagues with a deliberate attempt to deceive in government. i think there was a lapse in detail... laughter. during the referendum campaign. sometimes it was quite a large lapse but i think in government the realities are becoming apparent but i think we have seen that. one practical example would be the remarks made by the secretary of state for exiting the secretary of state for exiting the european union and the other day, when he said, quite crisply and entirely accurately it seems to me, that despite our ambitions, despite the government ‘s ambition is to

control the totals of immigration, it is going to be a very long time because those skills are going to be needed. that is absolutely right, i believe, andi and i think that sort of frankness is very attractive, very desirable andi is very attractive, very desirable and i hope we hear it on all fronts, because the british people voted to come out. they will accept coming out but i think they do wish to know and have an absolute right to know what the difficulties will be, what the impediments will be and how long it will take and what we may have to sacrifice to get it. that is essential. i think it is in the interests of the government to do that which is why i favour the debates in parliament, because if you can carry people with cute as the difficulties become apparent, you will carry people with you at the end when it is concluded. and if we wish to see the harmony back within the united kingdom and harmony reappear between public and

politicians, as to their voracity, then we need to be utterly frank with them and i think that is desirable. as for the second part of your question, at some time, every government has to deal with people in their party who genuinely believe something different to the government policy and with that, the government policy and with that, the government has to face them down and prevail. i will take one in the back and thena prevail. i will take one in the back and then a couple in the front. i can see a very tall hand at the very back. a gentleman, i believe it is. thank you. paul alexander. back. a gentleman, i believe it is. thank you. paulalexander. under what circumstances would you advocate a second referendum?” think that is a long way away, if ever. i spoke about the importance of parliament being involved, when people talk about the sovereignty of parliament, in a modern world like

ours, where you have a global economy of the sort we have got, noel parliament is absolutely sovereign and never will be again. not even the most powerful legislature in the united states is entirely sovereign but as far as possible, you welcome the sovereignty of parliament. so, i think it is most likely at the end of these negotiations that this is a matter that parliament will determine rather than anyone else but a lot will determine —— depend on but a lot will determine —— depend o n eve nts but a lot will determine —— depend on events that have not happened. i am not in the business of advocating am not in the business of advocating a second referendum at this stage. let us see how things begin to pan out. i think that is what is necessary , out. i think that is what is necessary, to see if public opinion changes, let us see what public opinion demands. the government is the servant of the public, let's see how things pan out, how parliament interprets what is happening, i think all those things must precede the question of a second referendum. thank you. could we have the

microphone in the front? thank you. following on from this, what you have just answered is that the remainders are not being legitimised in terms of their concerns and this isa in terms of their concerns and this is a huge issue right now for most of us who voted to remain. do you think the changing demographics as was pointed out last week, in the next few weeks, 500,000 are going to become 18 years old and it was 18— 35 euros, the majority of which, bolted to remain and 500,000, since the referendum, over 65, not saying this for anyone in this room, have passed away, do you think changing demographic dip —— michael demographics should be legitimised in sucha demographics should be legitimised in such a huge, with the consequences. in such a huge, with the consequences. this is not a four—year government election, this is much more than that. as i am well

over 65, the hairs rose on the back of my head as she asked a question. iam of my head as she asked a question. i am almost too much ink catatonic shock to answer! it is an interesting principle but i think it isa interesting principle but i think it is a difficult one to effectively write into law, because you might argue, i suppose you could argue that that happens at every general election. the referendum was unique. i don't think i would like to go beyond parliamentary consideration. you are right that the electorate will change and the electorate no doubt as it changes will express its own views to its own members of parliament and i think those members of parliament have the duty, whether it is popular in some quarters or not, to say precisely what they believe and what their constituents are telling them. i think i would honestly prefer to go down that

particular route. thank you. did you have a comment? just behind? particular route. thank you. did you have a comment? just behind? thank you. german and dirtier resident in this wonderful country. i agreed with everything you said —— and long—term resident. iwould be curious to find out what is the solution to this mess and how would you, if you were going back into politics, what would be your plan going forward? i am much too wise now to go back into politics! an extremely good time to have been a politician! laughter. there is no silver bullet. there is absolutely no silver bullet that can put this right, you cannot turn back the clock, we cannot overturn the referendum vote of that scale. itjust is not practical. we have to negotiate the best deal we

can, looking at our future interests and by looking at it, i mean looking at it with a very cold and clear eye, to make sure that what we are doing is in the interests of the next generation. i pick up the previous question, they will be here longer than we are and we need to look at what it actually means for them. and i think that is the right way to proceed from where we are to where we get and i returned to a point i made about the remainders. it simply is not democratic to tell nearly half the country they cannot express their opinion. when the remainers are told they are arrogant for expressing their view, i think i would turn that around and say the arrogance is with the people who told 48% of arab public that they should not express their view. i think the solution will be with the ongoing negotiations that are yet to come. they have not begun yet. the

government has not set out their negotiating position and the european union are not going to set out their negotiating position, i would guess, until after the french and german elections. it may be quite a good idea to wait until then, because there may be a greater, how best to put this, flexibility, once those elections are safely out of the way. laughter. the lady in the third or fourth row. memberof member of chatham house. thank you for a very enlightening and brave presentation. my question relates to the 48% that you mentioned. are there are consequences for the political systems in britain as a

result of 48% of voters feeling disenfranchised in the negotiating process and certainly as it is presented today? as a slightly second question, what is the role of the courts? we have seen some very interesting decisions and how do you foresee that playing a further role? the consequences did not seem too great at copeland, i didn't think. and when people come to vote in a general election there are a whole range of issues upon which they vote. a good deal of it is emotion and feel as to who is most secure to run the country rather than particular policies, though from time to time, particular policies ta ke time to time, particular policies take a very high—profile and i do not think there is a particular cause effect that you suggest might

be the case. i think probably that is not going to be the case. the gentleman in the dark sweater. and then there is another dark sweater, just up here and i think that will have to be our last question. given that the scottish people voted against independence on the vote it can stay in the eu, it should westminster and allow scotland to have a second independence referendum if nicola sturgeon calls for it? i am proposing to make a lengthy speech on that very shortly. laughter. as i indicated earlier. since i don't want to detract from what i said this evening by going off in what i said this evening by going offina what i said this evening by going off in a different direction and i hope you will forgive me if i don't a nswer hope you will forgive me if i don't answer that tonight, i promise i will not keep you waiting too long foran will not keep you waiting too long for an answer. laughter. it will give you more time

to think about it. no, i know the answer! yes sir. picking up on your comment about elections in france and germany and particularly france, if marine le pen did win, do you think that would change the negotiating position? it would change the european union if she carried out her policies. i think thatis carried out her policies. i think that is the point. i think it would be, the most devastating blow to the european union. if france were to have a government that sought to leave the euro and possibly to leave the european union. certainly to leave the euro. that would dwarf almost everything and i think you have to look again at precisely what is going to happen and i think she may do very well in the election, i would be surprised if she were to win it, but i do offer one thought

about that. why are we seeing this great growth of nationalism and intolerance right the way across europe? i think there are a number of factors and one of them that perhaps is not mentioned as often as it might be, is the impact of the financial crash of 2007. for the last ten years, the majority of people in most european countries have had no net increase in their disposable income and no net improvement in their family assets. in every decade since the 19205, per decade, people's net income rose by about 20%, 2% a year by and large, every decade. in the decade from 2007 to 2016 it rose 16%. what has happened in the last decade is of a

measure different to anything we have seen within the live scale of anyone recently and it is unsurprising that they are dissatisfied at what has actually happened —— 1.6%. dissatisfied at what has actually happened "1.6%. they have dissatisfied at what has actually happened -- 1.6%. they have shown that. we lead sirjohn major they're answering questions following a speech where he described brexit as an realand speech where he described brexit as an real and overly optimistic. certainly the vision that was presented by those wanting to leave and criticise the government saying that more charm and a lot less cheap rhetoric was needed towards the european union. we will be gauging reaction to the art throughout the night. now it is time for the weather. some of us have seen heavily and wintry showers today. pictures of snow there, not just across the highlands of scotland evenin across the highlands of scotland even in the south. those showers will continue into the night blowing in on the breeze. mostly in the west. ice will be a more widespread hazard as temperatures dipped close

to or even below freezing in places by the end of the night. a few freezing fog patches thrown in for good measure. by tomorrow morning, some more persistent wet weather in scotla nd some more persistent wet weather in scotland and northern ireland. this will push into the west of england and wales and then spread into the east. you might start off with sunshine but it will not stay that way. i'm the showers, it will brighten up. wet in northern counties, northern ireland and scotla nd counties, northern ireland and scotland have sunshine but for all of us, it will be chilly, particularly when the showers, logs but we better get used to it because through the rest of the way, the weather will chop and change. there will be rain and shine and further snow in some areas. back in half an hour. hello and welcome to 100 days.

a good day for the us defence industry, but not so great for diplomats. cuts to the defence department will have to pay for the expansion of america's military. as well as the funding increase, plans to defeat so—called islamic state will be presented by the us defence secretary later today. only do one thing: win. we have to win. we have to start winning wars again. the 43rd president criticises the 45th. george w bush says we all need answers about the trump team and russia and defends the press. power can be very addictive, and it can be corrosive, and it's important for the media to call to account people who abuse their power.